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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Estimating proximity effects to wildfire fuels treatments on house prices in Cibola National Forest, New Mexico, USA

Forested landscapes in the Western United States are subject to growing size and severity of wildfires, in part due to historical management strategies focusing on wildfire suppression. Forest restoration treatments and fuels reductions, including thinning and prescribed burning, can reduce the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Extensive restoration and fuels treatment efforts are underway across many areas in the Southwestern United States, including New Mexico. The tradeoff between amenity values provided by forested landscapes and the wildfire risk associated with forested landscapes is becoming increasingly important to understand as development in the wildland-urban interface increases. Understanding how house proximity, relative to forest restoration or fuels treatments, is capitalized into home sale prices can provide useful information about how individuals value forested landscapes that have been altered to reduce wildfire risk or severity. We use a Hedonic Property Model to estimate the average treatment effect of proximity to forest restoration or fuel treatments in New Mexico, United States. We use matching methods to estimate the average treatment effect of proximity to forest restoration. We find that proximity to the forest has a positive amenity value; however, proximity to recent forest restoration or fuel treatments results in a decrease in house sale prices. We combine the results of our two models and calculate that homes not within one kilometer of a treated forest and within one kilometer of Cibola National Forest sell for an average $73,626 premium. The average premium drops to $22,996 for homes within one kilometer of a forest that has been recently treated and within one kilometer of Cibola National Forest.

New Mexico

Long-term recovery of Mexican spotted owl nesting habitat after fire in the Lincoln National Forest, New Mexico

Background Dry mixed-conifer forests of the southwestern United States are experiencing rapid, anthropogenically driven fire regime change. Prior to the Euro-American settlement, most of these forests experienced frequent surface fires but are now vulnerable to uncharacteristically large, high-severity fires. Fire directly influences the structure and composition of these forests and, in turn, the wildlife that inhabit them. Changing fire regimes result in a certain decline of some species and uncertain consequences for others. The Mexican spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis lucida ) is a federally listed threatened species of particular note in southwestern mixed-conifer forests. High-severity fire is cited as the owl’s primary threat in the revised species recovery plan, but uncertainties surround the impacts of high-severity fire on the habitat of the threatened owl, particularly across a timeframe longer than a few years. Our objective was to explore the long-term (100-year) effects of fire severity on elements of forest structure vital for Mexican spotted owl nesting. We quantified structural attributes for nest/roost habitat across mixed-conifer forests that burned at varying severity levels and time periods in the last century. We then examined the drivers of structural attributes by detecting statistical differences between severity classes and time periods through permutational multivariate analysis of variance. Results High-severity fire has the strongest deleterious impact on elements of forest structure (total basal area, percent medium tree basal area, percent large tree basal area, large tree density, and canopy cover) vital to Mexican spotted owl nesting, and although the structural differences between severity classes diminish with time, it took ≥ 80–100 years to reach the structural conditions desired for Mexican spotted owl nesting after stand-replacing fires. The most important attribute measured, canopy cover, required 90–100 years after high-severity fires to reach levels most suitable for Mexican spotted owls in the Lincoln National Forest. Conclusions As fires increase in frequency, severity, and size compared to the last century, the Lincoln National Forest is projected to face an overall decrease in the structural conditions needed for Mexican spotted owl nesting habitat in this region. Short intervals between uncharacteristically high-severity fires in particular pose an imminent threat to nesting habitat.

New Mexico

Mines, prospects, and mineral sites, wilderness and RARE II areas, White Mountain National Forest, New Hampshire

The Wilderness Act (Public Law 88-577, September 3, 1964) and related acts require the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines to survey certain areas on Federal lands to determine their mineral value, if any, that may be present. Results must be made available to the public and be submitted to the President and the Congress. This report presents the results of investigations of mines, prospects, and mineral sites in the Great Gulf and Presidential Range-Dry River Wilderness Areas; the Dartmouth Range, Wild River, Pemigewasset, Kinsman Mountain, Mount Wolf-Gordon Pond, Jobildunk, and Carr Mountain Roadless Areas; and the intervening and immediately surrounding areas in the White Mountain National Forest, Coos, Grafton, and Carroll Counties, New Hampshire. The Great Gulf Wilderness was established when the Wilderness Act was passed in 1964, and the Presidential Range-Dry River Wilderness was established by Public Law 93-622, January 3, 1975. The Dartmouth Range, Wild River, Pemigewasset, Kinsman Mountain, Mount Wolf-Gordon Pond, Carr Mountain, and Jobildunk areas were classified as a further planning area during the Second Roadless Area Review and Evaluation (RARE II) by the U.S. Forest Service, January 1979. The areas investigated are located in the White Mountain National Forest in Coos, Grafton, and Carroll Counties, New Hampshire. Personnel from the U.S. Bureau of Mines conducted field reconnaissance of the westernmost areas, Kinsman Mountain, Mt. Wolf-Gordon Pond, Jobildunk, and Carr Mountain, in the fall of 1980. Field reconnaissance of the eastern areas, Great Gulf, Presidential Range-Dry River, Dartmouth Range, Pemigewasset and Wild River was conducted in the spring of 1981. A total of 237 rock and 103 panned-concentrate samples were collected during the investigations. Reconnaissance radiometric ground surveys were conducted at selected locations.

New Hampshire

New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and natural resource professionals familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show that the mean annual temperature has increased across the region by 2.4 °F, with even greater warming during winter. Precipitation patterns also changed during this time, with a slight trend toward greater annual precipitation and a substantial increase in extreme precipitation events. Projected climate trends using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 3 to 8 °F for the assessment area by 2100. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in fall and winter precipitation, and spring and summer precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). Model projections suggest that many northern and boreal species, including balsam fir, red spruce, and black spruce, may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for eight forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process with 20 scientists and resource managers from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Montane spruce-fir, low-elevation spruce-fir, and lowland mixed conifer forests were determined to be the most vulnerable communities. Central hardwoods, transition hardwoods, and pitch pine-scrub oak forests were perceived as having lower vulnerability to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent animals and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

Forest conditions in the Gila River Forest Reserve, New Mexico

The Gila River Forest Reserve was established by proclamation of President McKinley on March 2, 1899. The following is a statement of the boundaries as laid down in the proclamation: "Beginning at a point on the boundary line between New Mexico and Arizona, where it is intersected by the north line of township five (5) south, range twenty-one (21) west, New Mexico principle meridian, New Mexico; thence easterly along the township line to the northeast corner of township five (5) south, range sixteen (16) west; thence southerly along the range line between ranges fifteen (15) and sixteen (16) west, to the southeast corner of township eight (8) south, range sixteen (16) west; thence easterly along the township line to the northeast corner of township nine (9) south, range fifteen (15) west; thence southerly along the range line to the southeast corner of said township; thence easterly along the township line to the northeast corner of township ten (10) south, range ten (10) west; thence southerly along the first guide meridian west, between ranges nine (9) and ten (10) west, to its intersection with the third (3rd) standard parallel south, between townships fifteen (15) and sixteen (16) south; thence westerly along the said third (3rd) standard parallel south to the southwest corner of township fifteen (15) south, range sixteen (16) west; thence northerly along the range line to the northwest corner of said township; thence westerly along the township line to the northeast corner of township fifteen (15) south, range nineteen (19) west; thence southerly along the range line to its intersection with the third (3d) standard parallel south; thence westerly along the third (3rd) standard parallel south to its intersection with the boundary line between New Mexico and Arizona; thence northerly along said boundary line to the point where it intersects the north line of township five (5) south, range twenty-one (21) west, the place of beginning."

New Mexico

Coming to terms with the new normal: Forest health in the Sierra Nevada

The vast conifer forests of California’s Sierra Nevada range inspire awe and create lasting memories. The size and longevity of these trees make them seem both otherworldly and everlasting. Indeed, their grandeur is such that visitors may not appreciate how these forests are connected to the larger landscape, and so there is little understanding that something as common as a drought could lead to the death of so many trees and trigger massive and irreversible changes in the nature of these forests (Box 1: Reflections on the California Drought). Although tree death is a natural and essential process, human activity is increasing the mortality rate to such an extent that it threatens the persistence of the "big tree" forests we have come to associate with the Sierra Nevada. Here, we briefly explain how forests change, with a focus on the role of tree mortality. We then describe the contemporary risks and outline a way toward restoring the resilience of Sierran forests.

California

Effects of Wildfire on the Hydrology of Capulin and Rito de los Frijoles canyons, Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

In June of 1977, the La Mesa wildfire burned 15,270 acres in and around Frijoles Canyon in Bandelier National Monument and the adjacent Santa Fe National Forest, New Mexico. The Dome wildfire in April of 1996 in Bandelier National Monument burned 16,516 acres in Capulin Canyon and the surrounding Dome Wilderness area. Both watersheds are characterized by abundant and extensive archeological sites that could be affected by increased runoff and accelerated rates of erosion, which typically occur after a wildfire. The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service monitored the wildfires' effects on streamflow in both canyons. The magnitude of large stormflows increased dramatically after these wildfires; peak flows at the most downstream streamflow-gaging station in Frijoles and Capulin Canyons increased to about 160 times the maximum recorded flood prior to the fire. Maximum peak flow was 3,030 cubic feet per second at the gaging station in Frijoles Canyon (drainage area equals 18.1 square miles) and 3,630 cubic feet per second at the most downstream crest-stage gage in Capulin Canyon (drainage area equals 14.1 square miles). The pre-fire maximum peak flow recorded in these two canyons was 19 and an estimated 25 cubic feet per second, respectively. As vegetation reestablished itself during the second year, the post-fire annual maximum peak flow decreased to about 10 to 15 times the pre-fire annual maximum peak flow. During the third year, maximum annual peak flows decreased to about three to five times the pre-fire maximum peak flow. In the 22 years since the La Mesa wildfire, flood magnitudes have not completely returned to pre-fire size. Post-fire flood magnitudes in Frijoles and Capulin Canyons do not exceed the maximum floods per drainage area for physiographic regions 5 and 6 in New Mexico. For a burned watershed, however, the peak flows that occur after a wildfire are several orders of magnitude larger than normal forested watershed peak flows. The frequency of larger stormflows also increased in response to the effects of the wildfires in both canyons. In Frijoles Canyon, the number of peak stormflows greater than the pre-fire maximum flow of 19 cubic feet per second was 15 in 1977, 9 in 1978, and 5 in 1979, which is about the magnitude of the maximum pre-fire peak flow in both canyons. Again the hydrologic effects of a wildfire seem to be more pronounced for the 3 years following the date of the fire. Likewise, larger peakflows occurred more frequently in Capulin Canyon for the first 3 years after the 1996 wildfire. Median suspended-sediment concentrations in samples collected in Frijoles Canyon in 1977 were 1,330 milligrams per liter; median concentrations were 16 milligrams per liter after the watershed stabilized in 1993-95. The annual load calculated from regression equations for load compared to flow for the first year after the wildfire was 220 times the annual load for the post-recovery period. To convey the increased frequency and magnitude of average flows in Capulin Canyon after the 1996 Dome wildfire, the stream channel in Capulin Canyon increased in flow capacity by widening and downcutting. As Capulin Canyon peak flows have decreased in both magnitude and frequency with vegetative recovery, the stream channel also has slowly begun to readjust. The channel at the most downstream crest-stage gage, which has the shallowest initial valley slope, is showing the first signs of aggradation.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Evaluating the source of streamwater nitrate using δ 15 N and δ 18 O in nitrate in two watersheds in New Hampshire, USA

The natural abundance of nitrogen and oxygen isotopes in nitrate can be a powerful tool for identifying the source of nitrate in streamwater in forested watersheds, because the two main sources of nitrate, atmospheric deposition and microbial nitrification, have distinct δ 18 O values. Using a simple mixing model, we estimated the relative fractions in streamwater derived from these sources for two forested watersheds with markedly different streamwater nitrate outputs. In this study, we monitored δ 15 N and δ 18 O of nitrate biweekly in atmospheric deposition and in streamwater for 20 months at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA (moderate nitrogen export), and monthly in streamwater at the Bowl Research Natural Area, New Hampshire, USA (high nitrogen export). For rain, δ 18 O values ranged from +47 to +77‰ (mean: +58‰) and δ 15 N from −5 to +1‰ (mean: −3‰); for snow, δ 18 O values ranged from +52 to +75‰ (mean: +67‰) and δ 15 N from −3 to +2‰ (mean: −1‰). Streamwater nitrate, in contrast to deposition, had δ 18 O values between +12 and +33‰ (mean: +18‰) and δ 15 N between −3 and +6‰ (mean: 0‰). Since nitrate produced by nitrification typically has δ 18 O values ranging from −5 to +15‰, our field data suggest that most of the nitrate lost from the watersheds in streamflow was nitrified within the catchment. Our results confirm the importance of microbial nitrogen transformations in regulating nitrogen losses from forested ecosystems and suggest that hydrologic storage may be a factor in controlling catchment nitrate losses.

Hydrological Processes

The effects of wildfire on the peak streamflow magnitude and frequency, Frijoles and Capulin Canyons, Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

In June of 1977, the La Mesa fire burned 15,270 acres in and around Frijoles Canyon, Bandelier National Monument and the adjacent Santa Fe National Forest, New Mexico. The Dome fire occurred in April of 1996 in Bandelier National Monument, burned 16,516 acres in Capulin Canyon and the surrounding Dome Wilderness area. Both canyons are characterized by extensive archeological artifacts, which could be threatened by increased runoff and accelerated rates of erosion after a wildfire. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the National Park Service monitored the fires' effects on streamflow in both canyons. Copyright 2004 ASCE.

Conference Paper

Effects of wildfire on the hydrology of Frijoles and Capulin canyons in and near Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

In June 1977, the La Mesa wildfire burned 15,270 acres in and near Frijoles Canyon in Bandelier National Monument (BNM) and the adjacent Santa Fe National Forest, New Mexico. In April 1996, the Dome wildfire in BNM burned 16,516 acres in and near Capulin Canyon and the surrounding Dome Wilderness area. Both Frijoles and Capulin Canyon watersheds are characterized by archeological artifacts that could be affected by increased runoff and accelerated rates of erosion, which typically occur after a fire. In response to this concern, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Park Service, conducted a study to monitor and document the wildfire effects on streamflow after the 1996 Dome fire.

Fact Sheet

Landscape evolution of a fluvial sediment-rich Avicennia marina mangrove forest: Insights from seasonal and inter-annual surface-elevation dynamics

Mangrove forests are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise associated with climate warming because they occupy a relatively narrow zone on the mid-to-upper-intertidal flats. The fate of these ecosystems largely depends on their capacity to accrete sediment at a rate sufficient to maintain their elevation relative to sea level. We investigated the role of biophysical processes and feedbacks controlling surface-elevation dynamics in a fluvial sediment-rich Avicennia marina mangrove forest (New Zealand) at seasonal-to-inter-annual timescales (over 9 years) using the Rod Surface Elevation Table method. We found that sediment accretion in the forest was not measurably enhanced by episodic and short-lived storm discharges from rivers nor by elevated sea levels during storms. Critically, the coupling of frequent onshore winds and resulting resuspension of intertidal muds, with the fortnightly cycle of spring tide inundation, controlled sediment delivery and resulting accretion rates of 13 to 47 mm y −1 . In turn, net surface-elevation trends of 0 to 28 mm y −1 were dominated by the physical processes of sediment accretion and shallow subsidence due to seasonal desiccation and resulting compaction of the infrequently inundated forest platform (4 to 16 mm y −1 ). Our data suggest that monthly and seasonal variation in tidally controlled hydroperiod and sediment delivery rather than episodic storm events are important for the maintenance of mangrove elevation within the intertidal zone.

Firth of Thames

A spatially explicit decision support model for restoration of forest bird habitat

The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from 'hostile' edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km2) landscapes to achieve >60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.

Conservation Biology

Processes affecting the response of sulfate concentrations to clearcutting in a northern hardwood forest, Catskill Mountains, New York, U.S.A.

The effects of disturbance on the biogeochemical processes that affect the sulfur (S) cycle in forested ecosystems are important, but have been studied in only a few locations. In this investigation, the mechanisms that caused large decreases in stream SO42- concentrations after clearcutting a small forested catchment in the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York in 1997 were identified through an examination of pH and SO42- concentrations in soil solutions, bulk deposition of SO42- in throughfall collectors, adsorbed SO 42- concentrations in buried soil bags, and spatial variations in SO42- concentrations in shallow groundwater. The load of SO42- -S in stream water during the first 2 years after clearcutting was about 2 kg ha-1.year-1 less than the background value of 8-10 kg ha-1 year-1. The 10 and 19% decrease in net throughfall flux of SO42- -S during the 2nd and 3rd year after the clearcut, respectively, reflects reduced dry deposition of S after removal of the canopy, but this decrease accounts for 0 and 43%, respectively, of the decrease in SO42- load in streamflow for these 2 years. The pH of B-horizon soil water decreased from 4.5 to 4.0 within 8 months after the clearcut, and SO42- concentrations decreased from 45 ??mol L-1 to less than 20 ??mol L-1 during this time. A strong correlation between SO 42- concentrations and pH values (r2=0.71, p<0.01) in B-horizon soil water during the post-harvest period (1997-1999) reflects increased SO42- adsorption in response to soil acidification. Sulfate concentrations in groundwater from 21 spatially distributed wells were inversely related to a topographic index that served as a surrogate for soil wetness; thus, providing additional evidence that SO 42- adsorption was the dominant cause of the decreased SO42- concentrations in the stream after clearcutting. These results are consistent with those from a 1985 whole-tree harvest at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire in which increased SO 42- adsorption resulting from decreased soil pH was the primary cause of decreased SO42- concentrations in stream water.

Biogeochemistry

Small watershed studies: Analytical approaches for understanding ecosystem response to environmental change

Biogeochemical studies in small watersheds provide an analytical approach to understand how ecosystems respond to natural climatic variations and human-induced environmental change. Small watersheds, usually less than 5 km2, are small enough to permit characterization and understanding of ecosystem processes within relatively simple, homogeneous biological and physical settings; yet they are large enough to incorporate more complex processes and element cycles than can be studied at plot scales. Watersheds comprise discrete hydrochemical environments allowing quantification of hydrologic, element, and energy budgets. Element budgets, or mass balances, can be quantified as the difference between the mass of a solute that enters a watershed in wet and dry deposition and leaves a watershed in streamflow. Element budgets are primary tools used to investigate biogeochemical processes. Monitoring various aspects of element budgets to assess ecosystem health and stability is analogous to measuring the pulse or blood chemistry of a patient. Monitoring streamwater chemistry, basic climate, soil, and biotic variables provide a means to integrate complex biogeochemical processes and evaluate trends in water quality. Small watershed studies provide a scientific basis to develop predictive models of watershed function. Major emphases of small watershed studies include investigation of hydrologic and chemical responses to natural climate variation, anthropogenic stressors, and alternate forest-management practices. The nature and significance of biogeochemical research in small watersheds is reviewed by Moldan and Cerny (1994). The U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, and other federal agencies support several long-term small watershed studies to provide insight into a variety of ecosystem processes. Long-term records are essential to distinguish trends resulting from natural climatic variations or other stressors. The following sites, with noted periods of records, are examples of intensively studied forested watersheds in eastern USA supported by federal agencies: ■ Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, (1939-present), Swank and Crossley (1988). ■ Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, (1956-present), Bormann and Likens (1979). ■ Sleepers River Research Watershed, Vermont, (1958-present), Shanley et al. (1995). ■ Walker Branch Watershed, Tennessee, (1967-present), Johnson and Van Hook (1989). ■ Catoctin Mountains Research Site, Maryland, (1982-present), Rice and Bricker (1995). ■ Catskill Stream Network, New York, (1983- present), Murdoch and Stoddard (1992). ■ Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, (1985-present), Huntington et al. (1993). Small watershed studies also provide essential baseline information for understanding variations in water quality and element cycling in "pristine" ecosystems that can be used as benchmarks to evaluate anthropogenic impacts and alternate watershed management practices. This paper provides examples of how analytical tools developed through watershed research provide insight into ecosystem processes and can contribute to the management of watershed resources.

Conference Paper

Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico

Extensive high-severity fires are creating large shrubfields in many dry conifer forests of the interior western USA, raising concerns about forest-to-shrub conversion. This study evaluates the role of disturbance in shrubfield formation, maintenance and succession in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. We compared the environmental conditions of extant Gambel oak ( Quercus gambelii ) shrubfields with adjoining dry conifer forests and used dendroecological methods to determine the multi-century fire history and successional dynamics of five of the largest shrubfields (76–340 ha). Across the study area, 349 shrubfields (5–368 ha) occur in similar topographic and climate settings as dry conifer forests. This suggests disturbance, rather than other biophysical factors, may explain their origins and persistence. Gambel oak ages and tree-ring fire scars in our sampled shrubfields indicate they historically (1664–1899) burned concurrently with adjoining conifer forests and have persisted for over 115 years in the absence of fire. Aerial imagery from 1935 confirmed almost no change in sampled shrubfield patch sizes or boundaries over the twentieth century. The largest shrubfield we identified is less than 4% the size of the largest conifer-depleted and substantially shrub-dominated area recently formed in the Jemez following extensive high-severity wildfires, indicating considerable departure from historical patterns and processes. Projected hotter droughts and increasingly large high-severity fires could trigger more forest-to-shrub transitions and maintain existing shrubfields, inhibiting conifer forest recovery. Restoration of surface fire regimes and associated historical forest structures likely could reduce the rate and patch size of dry conifer forests being converted to shrubfields.

New Mexico

Streamwater chemistry and nutrient budgets for forested watersheds in New England: Variability and management implications

Chemistry of precipitation and streamwater and resulting input-output budgets for nutrient ions were determined concurrently for three years on three upland, forested watersheds located within an 80 km radius in central New England. Chemistry of precipitation and inputs of nutrients via wet deposition were similar among the three watersheds and were generally typical of central New England. In contrast, chemistry and nutrient outputs in streamwater varied dramatically between watersheds, with chemistries ranging from acidic to alkaline. Comparisons with data reported for 159 other upland, forested watersheds in central New England show that our study watersheds span the regional range likely to be encountered in stream chemistry. The regional variability stems in part from past natural disturbances such as wildfire, and variations in source of soil parent material. An approach is presented for predicting the important influence of glacial till on stream chemistry, including acid-base relationships, aluminum content, and nutrient outputs. Knowledge of streamwater chemistry and controlling factors can serve as an index of how terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems will respond to forest management activities and atmospheric deposition.

Forest Ecology and Management