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Evaluation of light penetration on Navigation Pools 8 and 13 of the Upper Mississippi River

The availability of light can have a dramatic affect on macrophyte and phytoplankton abundance in virtually all aquatic ecosystems. The Long Term Resource Monitoring Program and other monitoring programs often measure factors that affect light extinction (nonvolatile suspended solids, volatile suspended solids, and chlorophyll) and correlates of light extinction (turbidity and Secchi depth), but rarely do they directly measure light extinction. Data on light extinction, Secchi depth, transparency tube, turbidity, total suspended solids, and volatile suspended solids were collected during summer 2003 on Pools 8 and 13 of the Upper Mississippi River. Regressions were developed to predict light extinction based upon Secchi depth, transparency tube, turbidity, and total suspended solids. Transparency tube, Secchi depth, and turbidity all showed strong relations with light extinction and can effectively predict light extinction. Total suspended solids did not show as strong a relation to light extinction. Volatile suspended solids had a greater affect on light extinction than nonvolatile suspended solids. The data were compared to recommended criteria established for light extinction, Secchi depth, total suspended solids, and turbidity by the Upper Mississippi River Conservation Committee to sustain submersed aquatic vegetation in the Upper Mississippi River. During the study period, the average condition in Pool 8 met or exceeded all of the criteria whereas the average condition in Pool 13 failed to meet any of the criteria. This report provides river managers with an effective tool to predict light extinction based upon readily available data.

Long Term Resource Monitoring Program Technical Re

Status and trends of selected resources in the Upper Mississippi River System

Like other large rivers, the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) serves a diversity of roles. The UMRS provides commercial and recreational fishing, floodplain agriculture, drinking water for many communities, an important bird migration pathway, a variety of recreational activities, and a navigation system that transports much of the country's agricultural exports. These multiple roles present significant management challenges. Regular assessment of the condition of the river is needed to improve management plans and evaluate their effectiveness. This report provides a summary of the recent status (mean and range of conditions) and trends (change in direction over time) for 24 indicators of the ecological condition of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers using data collected through the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP). The 24 indicators were grouped into seven categories: hydrology, sedimentation, water quality, land cover, aquatic vegetation, invertebrates, and fish. Most of the data used in the report were collected between about 1993 and 2004, although some older data were also used to compare to recent conditions.Historical observations and current LTRMP data clearly indicate that the UMRS has been changed by human activity in ways that have diminished the ecological health of the river. The data indicate that status and trends differ among regions, and we expect that regional responses to various ecological rehabilitation techniques will differ as well. The continuing role of the LTRMP will be to provide the data needed to assess changes in river conditions and to determine how those changes relate to management actions, natural variation, and the overall ecological integrity of the river system.

Long Term Resource Monitoring Program Technical Re

Spatially explicit habitat models for 28 fishes from the Upper Mississippi River System (AHAG 2.0)

Environmental management actions in the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) typically require pre-project assessments of predicted benefits under a range of project scenarios. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) now requires certified and peer-reviewed models to conduct these assessments. Previously, habitat benefits were estimated for fish communities in the UMRS using the Aquatic Habitat Appraisal Guide (AHAG v.1.0; AHAG from hereon). This spreadsheet-based model used a habitat suitability index (HSI) approach that drew heavily upon Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1980) by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). The HSI approach requires developing species response curves for different environmental variables that seek to broadly represent habitat. The AHAG model uses species-specific response curves assembled from literature values, data from other ecosystems, or best professional judgment. A recent scientific review of the AHAG indicated that the model’s effectiveness is reduced by its dated approach to large river ecosystems, uncertainty regarding its data inputs and rationale for habitat-species response relationships, and lack of field validation (Abt Associates Inc., 2011). The reviewers made two major recommendations: (1) incorporate empirical data from the UMRS into defining the empirical response curves, and (2) conduct post-project biological evaluations to test pre-project benefits estimated by AHAG. Our objective was to address the first recommendation and generate updated response curves for AHAG using data from the Upper Mississippi River Restoration-Environmental Management Program (UMRR-EMP) Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) element. Fish community data have been collected by LTRMP (Gutreuter and others, 1995; Ratcliff and others, in press) for 20 years from 6 study reaches representing 1,930 kilometers of river and >140 species of fish. We modeled a subset of these data (28 different species; occurrences at sampling sites as observed in day electrofishing samples) using multiple logistic regression with presence/absence responses. Each species’ probability of occurrence, at each sample site, was modeled as a function of 17 environmental variables observed at each sample site by LTRMP standardized protocols. The modeling methods used (1) a forward-selection process to identify the most important predictors and their relative contributions to predictions; (2) partial methods on the predictor set to control variance inflation; and (3) diagnostics for LTRMP design elements that may influence model fits. Models were fit for 28 species, representing 3 habitat guilds (Lentic, Lotic, and Generalist). We intended to develop “systemic models” using data from all six LTRMP study reaches simultaneously; however, this proved impossible. Thus, we “regionalized” the models, creating two models for each species: “Upper Reach” models, using data from Pools 4, 8, and 13; and “Lower Reach” models, using data from Pool 26, the Open River Reach of the Mississippi River, and the La Grange reach of the Illinois River. A total of 56 models were attempted. For any given site-scale prediction, each model used data from the three LTRMP study reaches comprising the regional model to make predictions. For example, a site-scale prediction in Pool 8 was made using data from Pools 4, 8, and 13. This is the fundamental nature and trade-off of regionalizing these models for broad management application. Model fits were deemed “certifiably good” using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit statistic (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 2000). This test post-partitions model predictions into 10 groups and conducts inferential tests on correspondences between observed and expected probability of occurrence across all partitions, under Chi-square distributional assumptions. This permits an inferential test of how well the models fit and a tool for reporting when they did not (and perhaps why). Our goal was to develop regionalized models, and to assess and describe circumstances when a good fit was not possible. Seven fish species composed the Lentic guild. Good fits were achieved for six Upper Reach models. In the Lower Reach, no model produced good fits for the Lentic guild. This was due to (1) lentic species being much less prominent in the Lower Reach study areas, and (2) those that do express greater prominence principally do so only in the La Grange reach of the Illinois River. Thus, developing Lower Reach models for Lentic species will require parsing La Grange from the other two Lower Reach study areas and fitting separate models. We did not do that as part of this study, but it could be done at a later time. Nine species comprised the Lotic guild. Good fits were achieved for seven Upper Reach models and six Lower Reach models. Four species had good fits for both regions (flathead catfish, blue sucker, sauger, and shorthead redhorse). Three species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (blue catfish, rock bass, and skipjack herring). Twelve species comprised the Generalist guild. Good fits were achieved for five Upper Reach models and eight Lower Reach models. Six species had good fits for both regions (brook silverside, emerald shiner, freshwater drum, logperch, longnose gar, and white bass). Two species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (red shiner and blackstripe topminnow). Poorly fit models were almost always due to the diagnostic variable “field station,” a surrogate for river mile. In these circumstances, the residuals for “field station” were non-randomly distributed and often strongly ordered. This indicates either fitting “pool scale” models for these species and regions, or explicitly model covariances between “field station” and the other predictors within the existing modeling framework. Further efforts on these models should seek to resolve these issues using one of these two approaches. In total, nine species, representing two of the three guilds (Lotic and Generalist), produced well-fit models for both regions. These nine species should comprise the basis for AHAG 2.0. Additional work, likely requiring downscaling of the regional models to pool-scale models, will be needed to incorporate additional species. Alternately, a regionalized AHAG could be comprised of those species, per region, that achieved well-fit models. The number of species and the composition of the regional species pools will differ among regions as a consequence. Each of these alternatives has both pros and cons, and managers are encouraged to consider them fully before further advancing this approach to modeling multi-species habitat suitability.

Upper Mississippi River System

Relationship of weed shiner and young-of-year bluegill and largemouth bass abundance to submersed aquatic vegetation in Navigation Pools 4, 8, and 13 of the Upper Mississippi River, 1998-2012

Aquatic vegetation provides food resources and shelter for many species of fish. This study found a significant relationship between increases in submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in four study reaches of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) and increases in catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) of weed shiners ( Notropis texanus ) and age-0 bluegills ( Lepomis macrochirus ) and largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) when all of the study reaches were treated collectively using Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) vegetation and fish data for 1998–2012. The selected fishes were more abundant in study reaches with higher SAV frequencies (Pool 8 and Lower Pool 4) and less abundant in reaches with lower SAV frequencies (Pool 13 and Upper Pool 4). When each study reach was examined independently, the relationship between SAV frequency and CPUE of the three species was not significant in most cases, the primary exception being weed shiners in Lower Pool 4. Results of this study indicate that the prevalence of SAV does affect relative abundance of these vegetation-associated fish species. However, the poor annual relationship between SAV frequency and age-0 relative abundance in individual study reaches indicates that several other factors also govern age-0 abundance. The data indicate that there may be a SAV frequency threshold in backwaters above which there is not a strong relationship with abundance of these fish species. This is indicated by the high annual CPUE variability of the three selected fishes in backwaters of Pool 8 and Lower Pool 4 when SAV exceeded certain frequencies.

Upper Mississippi River

A suspended sediment budget for Pool 13 and La Grange Pool of the upper Mississippi River system

The suspended sediment budget for Pool 13 of the Mississippi River and La Grange Pool of the Illinois River was examined over a 3-yr period (October 1995 through September 1997). Pool 13 output was between 3.07 and 3.64 million t (metric tons) of suspended sediment annually during the study period. Loads to Pool 13 were dominated by those delivered by the Mississippi River (76%, 74%, and 66% in the 1995, 1996, and 1997 water years, respectively). Pool 13 exhibited sediment export (output greater than input) in 1995, a balance in 1996, and marked sediment trapping (output less than input) in 1997. Within the three study years, Pool 13 received its highest water and sediment loads during spring (March through May) and this period was marked by sediment export. Suspended sediment loads were trapped during the remainder of the year. La Grange Pool output was between 3.71 and 5.04 million t of suspended sediment annually during the 1995-97 water years. The Illinois River accounted for less than 50% of the suspended sediment load to the pool (19%, 25%, and 45% in the 1995, 1996, and 1997 water years, respectively. La Grange Pool exhibited considerable sediment trapping in 1995 whereas the 1996 and 1997 water years were much closer to a balance wherein output was within 5% of input. Generally, La Grange Pool received its largest water and sediment loads during the late spring—early summer period (April through June), but in 1997 the late winter loads predominated. In all years, La Grange Pool trapped the sediments during these high discharge, high loading periods and exported suspended sediments for the remainder of the year. The distinct differences in the manner in which these pools process suspended sediment loads may be related to the considerable differences between the morphometry of these pools.

Illinois, Iowa

Pool 13 drawdown: Predicting success rates and affected areas

The likelihood of 1- or 2-foot drawdowns, and the area affected by such alternative drawdowns, was estimated for Pool 13 on the Upper Mississippi River. Minimum water surface (elevation) requirements were compared to computed water surface profiles to determine a critical low flow that would allow a navigation channel 400 feet wide and 10.5 feet deep. An upper limit on flow was established based on the flow at which open river conditions would exist for a given drawdown. The range in flows that would allow for a drawdown was used to estimate success rates using historical daily discharge data. Success rates were determined for a variety of drawdown durations between two time periods. May 1—August 15 and June 15—August 15. The greatest effect of the drawdown would he near Lock and Dam 13. Higher discharges, as well as distance from the dam. lessen the drawdown amount. Areas that would he affected by these two drawdown scenarios were predicted by overlaying maps of water surfaces with depths using a geographic information system. Although the drawdown effects on most physical and biotic components of Pool 13 arc unknown, some general drawdown effects likely to occur because of the changes in water surface elevation are presented.

Illinois, Iowa

2020 Four-band aerial imagery testing and acquisition for 2020 land cover/land use mission

The aerial camera testing project lays the groundwork for the collection of aerial imagery that will be used in the creation of the next iteration of systemic land cover/land use data for the Upper Mississippi River System. Prior to acquisition in the summer of 2020, the new 4-band aerial camera will be assessed for image quality at various resolutions and be compared to the camera used for the 2010/2011 collection. Systemic aerial imagery has been acquired, and vegetation datasets derived from that imagery, by the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program’s Long Term Resource Monitoring element on a decadal basis beginning in 1989 and follow-up imagery missions in 2000 and 2010/2011. Remote sensing and geographic information system technology has changed dramatically during this time, transitioning from a workflow based on 9-inch by 9-inch aerial film-based cameras to today’s 80-megapixel four-band digital camera. In addition to the camera testing, this report also provides historical information of previous aerial imagery acquisition efforts and how that process has continued to advance in the 30 years since the Program’s genesis.

Long Term Resource Monitoring Technical Report

Summary of hydrogeologic controls on ground-water flow at the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

The underground testing of nuclear devices has generated substantial volumes of radioactive and other chemical contaminants below ground at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Many of the more radioactive contaminants are highly toxic and are known to persist in the environment for thousands of years. In response to concerns about potential health hazards, the U.S. Department of Energy, under its Environmental Restoration Program, has made NTS the subject of a long-term investigation. Efforts supported through the U.S. Department of Energy program will assess whether byproducts of underground testing pose a potential hazard to the health and safety of the public and, if necessary, will evaluate and implement steps to remediate any of the identified dangers. Test-generated contaminants have been introduced over large areas and at variable depths above and below the water table throughout NTS. Evaluating the risks associated with these byproducts of underground testing presupposes a knowledge of the source, transport, and potential receptors of these contaminants. Ground-water flow is the primary mechanism by which contaminants can be transported significant distances away from the initial point of injection. Flow paths between contaminant sources and potential receptors are separated by remote areas that span tens of miles. The diversity and structural complexity of the rocks along these flow paths complicates the hydrology of the region. Although the hydrology has been studied in some detail, much still remains uncertain about flow rates and directions through the fractured-rock aquifers that transmit water great distances across this arid region. Unique to the hydrology of NTS are the effects of underground testing, which severely alter local rock characteristics and affect hydrologic conditions throughout the region. Any assessment of the risk must rely in part on the current understanding of ground-water flow, and the assessment will be only as good as the understanding itself. This report summarizes what is known and inferred about ground-water flow throughout the NTS region. The report identifies and updates what is known about some of the major controls on ground-water flow, highlights some of the uncertainties in the current understanding, and prioritizes some of the technical needs as related to the Environmental Restoration Program. An apparent deficiency in the current understanding is a lack of knowledge about flow directions and rates away from major areas of testing. Efforts are necessary to delineate areas of downgradient flow and to identify factors that constrain and control flow within these areas. These efforts also should identify the areas most critical to gaining detailed understanding and to establishing long-term monitoring sites necessary for effective remediation.

Nevada

Designing monitoring programs in an adaptive management context for regional multiple species conservation plans

Increasing numbers of regional, multiple species conservation plans have been developed in California since the early 1990s. However, building effective monitoring and adaptive management programs to support these plans has remained a challenge. In addition to collecting data on the status of resources and the results of management actions, monitoring programs for these plans need to resolve critical uncertainties and channel information into effective decisionmaking. Because of the broad goals of many regional conservation plans, monitoring programs need to address ecosystem integrity and biodiversity while also tracking species ?covered? by plan permits. In this document we provide a step-by-step procedure for developing effective monitoring programs in an adaptive management context. The guidance provided here has been gleaned from experience with large multiple species plans in southern California. The process begins with clearly defining program objectives, partitioning the program into manageable but meaningful pieces, and developing management-oriented conceptual models of system function. Then, based on the objectives and conceptual models, monitoring recommendations and critical uncertainties can be identified and a coordinated program designed. We include practical examples and insights from programs in southern California and discuss the evolution of monitoring and adaptive management programs through three successive stages: 1) inventorying resources and identifying relationships; 2) pilot testing of long-term monitoring and resolving critical management uncertainties; and 3) implementing long-term monitoring and adaptive management. Ultimately, the success of regional conservation planning depends on the ability of monitoring programs to confront the challenges of adaptively managing and monitoring complex ecosystems and diverse arrays of sensitive species.

Technical Report

Scientific Framework for resilience research on the Upper Mississippi River System

The goal of this research framework is to outline research that would continue to improve our understanding of ecological resilience of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) and inform management of the system for health and resilience. We provide a broad overview of recently completed and ongoing work that has been funded as a part of the UMRS Ecological Resilience Assessment and related efforts to provide context for how proposed research questions build upon our current knowledge and may inform restoration planning and design. We describe two primary objectives within this research framework - the first objective is to investigate hypothesized drivers and feedbacks related to specified resilience, and the second is to expand our utility of general resilience indicators through further development and evaluation. The intended audience for this framework is the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program (UMRR). The UMRR partnership is made up of natural resource agencies from five states (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin) and five federal agencies (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service).

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

U.S. Geological Survey Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center: Proceedings of the fiscal year 2023 annual reporting meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

This proceedings is prepared for the USBR and Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2023 by SBSC's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the GCDAMP. It includes a summary of accomplishments, modifications to work plans, and results related to projects included in GCMRC’s FY 2021-23 Triennial Work Plan. This work was done to support the 11 resource goals identified in the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Environmental Impact Statement and Record of Decision.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah

Northwest Forest Plan — The first 25 years (1994–2018): Watershed condition status and trends

This report describes status and trends in watershed condition across the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) area over the first 25 years since its inception in 1994. The program charged with this task is the Aquatic and Riparian Effectiveness Monitoring Program (AREMP), which has assembled information from field data collection, spatial datasets, and a host of landscape models to evaluate the status and trends in aquatic resources in streams and watersheds. Field data included hydrologic measurements (stream wetted widths and temperatures), geomorphic responses (instream wood and sediment), and biological responses (macroinvertebrates and aquatic organism passage). Novel statistical models were used to estimate trends in these measured responses. A suite of complementary modeled results was also employed to describe hydrometeorological drivers (e.g., drought indices and stream discharge), forest cover (upslope and riparian vegetation), and geomorphic conditions (e.g., road-related estimates of chronic and shallow landslide sediment delivery risk). Collectively, information on these responses allowed us to rigorously evaluate instream responses and hypothesize watershed drivers of those responses across the NWFP area and over time. The majority of responses we observed indicated widespread and incremental improvements from active management of forests, forest roads, and road-stream crossings as envisioned by the aquatic conservation strategy of the NWFP. Additionally, many of the responses we observed were consistent with those expected under the influences of changing climates in the Pacific Northwest. Ultimately, the long-term, broad-scale information provided by AREMP is a critical foundation for evaluating the effectiveness of federal land management and the effects of changing climates on water resources that sustain the Pacific Northwest’s human and natural landscapes.

California, Oregon, Washington

Adaptive management framework and decision support tool for invasive annual bromes in seven Northern Great Plains National Park Service units

National Park Service (NPS) units in the northern Great Plains (NGP) were established to preserve and interpret the history of the United States, protect and showcase unusual geology and paleontology, and provide a home for vanishing large wildlife. A unifying feature among these national parks, monuments, and historic sites is northern mixed-grass prairie, which not only provides background scenery and habitat but is the foundation of many park missions. As recognition of the prairie’s importance to park fundamental resources and values has grown, so too has the realization that invasive plants threaten these values by reducing native species diversity, altering food webs, and marring the visitor experience. Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and Japanese brome ( Bromus japonicus )—collectively referred to as “annual bromes”—are of particular concern because of their documented increase through time, and their association with lower native plant diversity, in NGP parks. A variety of grazing, herbicide-application, and prescribed-fire experiments have shown promising short-term results for controlling annual bromes in research-scale plots in the NGP, but it is unclear whether these management actions will be as effective at the larger spatial and longer temporal scales relevant to park management. When uncertainties about the effectiveness of different management actions cannot be answered with traditional research approaches in time to prevent resource degradation, yet recurrent management decisions must be made, an adaptive management approach may be appropriate. Thus, in 2017, we began to develop the ABAM—Annual Brome Adaptive Management—framework. The aim of this framework is to reduce uncertainties about methods for controlling annual bromes in seven NGP parks through a formal process of learning from the application of on-going management. A uniform framework across seven parks provides greater opportunities for reducing these uncertainties compared to a single park acting alone or to multiple parks using different adaptive management frameworks. This technical report details the development and expected implementation of the ABAM framework. After briefly introducing the issue (Section 1) and describing the context in which the framework was developed (Section 2), the report describes how a structured decision-making process was used to frame the problem, determine concrete objectives, and decide the alternative actions for achieving those objectives that the framework would be designed around (Section 3). Then the report describes the process used to develop the ABAM decision support system (Section 4). At the core of this system is the ABAM decision support tool, a Bayesian decision network built on nearly two decades of vegetation monitoring data from NGP parks, as well as current literature and ABAMspecific experiments. This tool, referred to as the ABAM model by its intended users, is built to work with the existing vegetation monitoring, prescribed fire, and invasive plant management programs that support the seven ABAM parks. In Section 5, the report describes how output from the ABAM model is produced and used in annual vegetation management decision making. It describes the ABAM R package (Baldwin et al. 2021) and an example R script that leads a user through an annual workflow using the model and the package. This workflow updates the model with information from new monitoring events following management actions of prescribed fire, herbicide application, or a combination thereof. With the updated model, data describing the current condition of vegetation in park management units, and current data for environmental factors included in the model (soil texture, slope, weather, and grazing), the user then runs the model to predict future vegetation conditions—and managers’ happiness with the outcome—in response to each of 10 management actions for each management unit in each park. These predictions inform managers’ decisions regarding locations and types of management actions to apply in the upcoming year. The ABAM framework is in its infancy, and the report concludes (Section 6) with a discussion of its longer-term viability. Successful adaptive management requires commitment for the long term, likely decades. Currently, the predictions of the decision support tool are not expected to be highly accurate, but they ideally will improve over time as more management actions are applied and their outcomes are captured by monitoring. We designed the ABAM decision support tool to work with the existing management and monitoring resources in ABAM parks to maximize the sustainability of the model’s use, but the ABAM framework requires more than the model. Because this application of an adaptive management framework supported by a quantitative decision support tool to guide vegetation management is unique within the NPS (to our knowledge), institutional knowledge and mechanisms for long-term implementation of the ABAM framework do not exist within the agency. Additionally, the ABAM model and the data that inform it could be improved in a variety of ways. Thus, this report concludes with a discussion of ways to both sustain and improve upon the work completed so far.

Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming

Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500 species of birds using the region for at least some part of their annual cycle. In addition, long-term monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult because of the need for monitoring data to both (1) evaluate management and restoration outcomes, and (2) provide reliable information about the status and trends of bird populations over time. To address these challenges, the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network developed a problem statement: “How can a cost-effective monitoring strategy for the Gulf Coast bird community and ecosystem be developed that evaluates ongoing conservation activities and chronic and acute threats; maximizes learning; and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats and evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?” A structured decision-making framework was then used to articulate and quantify stakeholder values related to the problem statement. One use of the stakeholder values was to develop a regional, strategic plan for bird monitoring, which is presented elsewhere. A formal and complete decision support tool for conservation investments in monitoring and research guided by the stakeholder values is presented in this report. The technical aspects of the stakeholder value model and a portfolio analysis that could be used to guide decision making when allocating resources for monitoring activities is described. Whereas the decision analysis presented here could be useful to any decision maker faced with difficult choices about resource allocation, it is designed for decision makers who request monitoring study proposals and then determine which combination of proposals to fund. The portfolio decision support tool is designed to help funding agencies and organizations identify resource allocation strategies to maximize stated objectives. To begin the decision analysis, an objectives hierarchy and quantitative performance metrics from the values of the Gulf of Mexico bird conservation community were created by a panel of regional stakeholders. Each fundamental objective and sub-objective in the hierarchy is composed of several performance metrics. To test the decision support tool, the authors evaluated a combination of monitoring study proposals written for the region and simulated proposals. Each proposal was scored against the performance metrics and used multi-attribute utility theory to combine the multiple objectives into a measure of total monitoring benefit. The total monitoring benefit and costs of each proposal were then used in a constrained optimization routine to identify optimal monitoring portfolios, that is, a combination of activities that maximizes monitoring benefits while meeting cost and other constraints of interest to stakeholders. A graphical solution based on the concept of Pareto efficiency, which is useful in situations when cost constraints and exact budgets are not known, is also provided. Finally, an evaluation of the sensitivity of the decision-making framework to the weights assigned to objectives by stakeholders is included. This decision support tool allows decision makers to identify an optimal suite of monitoring proposals with a transparent portfolio analysis that includes user-defined constraints (such as costs).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Documenting the use of the Long Term Resource Monitoring element’s fish monitoring methodologies throughout the Midwest

The Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program’s Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) element is designed to monitor and assess long term trends in the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). To accomplish this, standardized methods are used that allow for comparisons across pools and rivers. In recent years, other projects and other agencies have adopted the LTRM fish methodologies for use outside the UMRR. To determine how widespread the use of the Fish Component’s methods are, a twelve question survey was delivered via SurveyMonkey.com through the states comprising the American Fisheries Society (AFS) North Central Division and the Upper Mississippi River Conservation Committee. Approximately 2,000 professionals were reached with ≈11 percent participating. Results indicate that nearly all (95 percent) respondents use standardized methods in their sampling and 48 percent are familiar with the LTRM fish methodologies. Roughly one-third (35 percent) of all respondents have used the methods in the past and most (78 percent) of those have modified the methods to suit the information needs specific to their fishery. Results indicate that the LTRM methods have indeed spread outside the UMRR and are now a well-known and potentially widely used technique to sample fish communities.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

Scientific monitoring plan in support of the selected alternative of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan

Introduction The purpose of this document is to describe a strategy by which monitoring and research data in the natural and social sciences will be collected, analyzed, and provided to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), its bureaus, and to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) in support of implementation of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016a). The selected alternative identified in the LTEMP Record of Decision (ROD) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b) describes various data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation efforts to be conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), partner agencies, and cooperators that will inform decisions about operations of Glen Canyon Dam and management of downstream resources between 2017 and 2037, the performance period of the LTEMP. General data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation activities are described in this science plan, whereas specific monitoring and research activities and detailed study plans are to be described in the GCDAMP’s triennial work plans (TWPs) to be developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and GCMRC with input from partner agencies and cooperators during the LTEMP period, which are to be reviewed and recommended by the GCDAMP and approved by the Secretary of the Interior. The GCDAMP consists of several components, the primary committee being the Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG). This Federal advisory committee is composed of 25 agencies and stakeholder groups and is chaired by the Secretary of the Interior’s designee. The AMWG makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning operations of Glen Canyon Dam and other experimental management actions that are intended to fulfill some obligations of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992. The Technical Work Group (TWG) is a subcommittee of the AMWG and provides technical advice to the AMWG. It is composed of technical and science representatives from the same agencies and stakeholder groups who serve on the AMWG. GCMRC is the primary science provider to the GCDAMP and also coordinates many aspects of the science performed by cooperators and partner agencies. The Science Advisors Program provides independent science reviews and advice at the request of the GCDAMP. The plan proposed here necessarily depends on (1) the protocol for decision-making and the requirements for scientific data reporting described in the LTEMP ROD, (2) the priorities of the GCDAMP as directed by the LTEMP ROD (see Department of the Interior, 2016b, section 6.1), (3) the priorities for monitoring and research in the conservation measures section of the Biological Opinion for the LTEMP (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b, LTEMP ROD attachment E), (4) the priorities for resource management and information needs established by Federal and State resource-management agencies within the GCDAMP, (5) scientific understanding about the linkage between the status of those resources and operations of Glen Canyon Dam, and (6) the need to resolve existing scientific uncertainties about the linkage between dam operations and the condition of resources. We note that resource-management prioritization is fundamentally a policy decision charged specifically to DOI for the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons, as outlined most recently in the LTEMP ROD, and is not the responsibility of the GCMRC. However, it is the responsibility of the GCMRC to describe the nature of scientific understanding, the nature of scientific uncertainty, and the risk of making resourcemanagement decisions in the face of existing scientific uncertainty. The goals of science activities in the next 20 years are to inform operational decisions regarding Glen Canyon Dam operations described in the LTEMP ROD, resolve remaining scientific uncertainties, and to monitor resource trends that are affected entirely, or in part, by dam operations.

Open-File Report

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes: Science to inform management practices for protecting the health and integrity of wildlife populations from adverse effects: GLRI action plan I, focus area 1, goal 5

Executive Summary: Under Action Plan I (2010-2014) of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), Federal and Academic partners began an investigation of the presence and distribution of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes and potential impacts on fish and wildlife. The term CECs is applied to a broad range of chemicals that are currently in use but for which we currently lack good understanding of whether fish, wildlife, or humans are being exposed and/or whether negative health or environmental effects are expected if exposure occurs. Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, flame retardants, many current use pesticides, and poly- and perfluorinated chemicals are some well-known groups of CECs, but there is no definitive or comprehensive list that can be used to support the management of CECs to reduce impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem. Four overarching goals were identified for this collaborative investigation: 1. Evaluate the sources, occurrence, and distribution of CECs across the Great Lakes Basin. 2. Examine associations between the distribution of CECs and land-use patterns. 3. Review both scientific literature and field-generated data to determine the potential for CECs to cause adverse effects on Great Lakes fish and wildlife populations. 4. Develop efficient strategies to survey and/or monitor for threats that CECs may pose in order to take effective management actions before those threats evolve into large scale impacts on Great Lakes ecosystems or the services they provide. Achievement of these goals ensures progress towards Focus Area 1: Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern from GLRI Action Plan I, Goal 5: “ The health and integrity of wildlife populations and habitat are protected from adverse chemical and biological effects associated with the presence of toxic substances in the Great Lakes Basin ”. This large-scale research effort was comprised of individual and collaborative projects from multiple federal agencies and academic institutions, involving over 85 investigators, and overseen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5, Great Lakes National Program Office. Partners include the United States Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Saint Cloud State University, the U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Key findings: 1. Contaminants of emerging concern were found throughout the monitored Great Lakes tributaries, but types and concentrations vary in association with regional land use. CECs were detected in nearly all samples collected. The type and concentration of the specific contaminants detected varied considerably among field sites and in association with land use type, such as urban, agricultural, wetland, 2 or forest. Contaminants were detected in the water column, sediment, and tissues of all species surveyed in the current work (mussels, aquatic insects, fish, and insect-eating birds). 2. There were over 20 contaminants for which CEC concentrations approached or exceeded those reported to cause toxicity in laboratory experiments. This was based on detection in water, sediments and or biota at one or more field sites. These contaminants represent compounds that warrant further investigation and monitoring with respect to potential impacts in certain areas of the Great Lakes basin. Based on the present investigation, compounds of greatest concern include: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, associated with oil-based products and combustion of organic matter; atrazine, an herbicide; dichlorvos, an insecticide; and ibuprofen and venlafaxine, both pharmaceuticals. 3. Results suggest that mixtures of CECs presently found in most Great Lakes tributary locations surveyed may elicit subtle biological effects, but likely are not, alone, causing obvious detriment to current communities of fish and wildlife. CECs detected in the Great Lakes were associated with subtle biological effects like changes in gene expression, altered circulating glucose, etc. in both wild-caught and laboratory-reared organisms. These effects were generally not indicative of reproductive failure or mortality. However, the effects may have more serious implications when combined with other sources of stress like habitat degradation, changing climate conditions, and competition with invasive species. Due to limited historical data, it is unknown whether severe CEC-related impacts have already affected aquatic communities in waterbodies that have received long-term inputs of these contaminants. Likewise, under Action Plan I, biological effects were not necessarily evaluated at the sites where CEC concentrations exceeding laboratory toxicity thresholds were detected. As a result, strategic, ongoing surveillance and monitoring of CECs is warranted. This collaborative investigation resulted in new tools, approaches, and data that can be used to inform and support the management of CECs to reduce their impacts on Great Lakes natural resources. The following products of this research effort are available through https://communities.geoplatform.gov/glri/ or by contacting the investigators (see technical chapters found in Appendices A-F): 1. Database of CEC occurrence and concentrations in US tributary streams. The database includes CEC detections in water, sediment, and fish and wildlife tissues, and represents the most comprehensive survey of CECs in the Great Lakes Region. 2. Synopses of results and key findings. Integrated summaries of results, conclusions, and management implications of the CEC research are available through reports, topical fact sheets, and presentations. 3. Technical publications: This collaborative research effort has resulted in over 50 peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and data releases that can be of use to resource managers, the scientific community, and members of the public. 4. Innovative tools. Innovative monitoring devices, sampling equipment, conceptual frameworks, and software applications were developed over the course of this 3 research. These tools are transferable to stakeholders via internet accessibility or via specifications, instructions, and demonstration detailed in technical publications. Hypotheses to guide CECs research under Action Plan II. Findings from 2010-2014 were used to guide further research in 2015-2018 for basin-wide surveillance of CECs and for sites warranting further study of potential biological impacts of CECs. Additional surveillance included both evaluation of additional classes of contaminants and expanded lists for chemical classes shown to be of greatest concern. Mixtures of some of the most frequently detected contaminants were also tested in laboratory studies to understand whether long term exposures to multiple contaminants may result in effects not evident from uncontrolled, short-term field experiments.

Great Lakes