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Land cover and land use change

Climate can affect and be affected by changes in land cover (the physical features that cover the land such as trees or pavement) and land use (human management and activities on land, such as mining or recreation). A forest, for instance, would likely include tree cover but could also include areas of recent tree removals currently covered by open grass areas. Land cover and use are inherently coupled: changes in land-use practices can change land cover, and land cover enables specific land uses. Understanding how land cover, use, condition, and management vary in space and time is challenging. Changes in land cover can occur in response to both human and climate drivers. For example, demand for new settlements often results in the permanent loss of natural and working lands, which can result in localized changes in weather patterns, temperature, and precipitation. Aggregated over large areas, these changes have the potential to influence Earth’s climate by altering regional and global circulation patterns, changing the albedo (reflectivity) of Earth’s surface, and changing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere. Conversely, climate change can also influence land cover, resulting in a loss of forest cover from climate-related increases in disturbances, the expansion of woody vegetation into grasslands, and the loss of beaches due to coastal erosion amplified by rises in sea level. Land use is also changed by both human and climate drivers. Land-use decisions are traditionally based on short-term economic factors. Land-use changes are increasingly being influenced by distant forces due to the globalization of many markets. Land use can also change due to local, state, and national policies, such as programs designed to remove cultivation from highly erodible land to mitigate degradation, legislation to address sea level rise in local comprehensive plans, or policies that reduce the rate of timber harvest on federal lands. Technological innovation has also influenced land-use change, with the expansion of cultivated lands from the development of irrigation technologies and, more recently, decreases in demand for agricultural land due to increases in crop productivity. The recent expansion of oil and gas extraction activities throughout large areas of the United States demonstrates how policy, economics, and technology can collectively influence and change land use and land cover. Decisions about land use, cover, and management can help determine society’s ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Report

A design for a sustained assessment of climate forcings and feedbacks on land use land cover change

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly influences the climate system. Hence, to prepare the nation for future climate change and variability, a sustained assessment of LULCC and its climatic impacts needs to be undertaken. To address this objective, not only do we need to determine contemporary trends in land use and land cover that affect, or are affected by, weather and climate but also identify sectors and regions that are most affected by weather and climate variability. Moreover, it is critical that we recognize land cover and regions that are most vulnerable to climate change and how end-use practices are adapting to climate change. This paper identifies a series of steps that need to be undertaken to address these key items. In addition, national-scale institutional capabilities are identified and discussed. Included in the discussions are challenges and opportunities for collaboration among these institutions for a sustained assessment.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Regional characterization of land cover using multiple sources of data

Many organizations require accurate intermediate-scale land-cover information for many applications, including modeling nutrient and pesticide runoff, understanding spatial patterns of biodiversity, land-use planning, and policy development. While many techniques have been successfully used to classify land cover in relatively small regions, there are substantial obstacles in applying these methods to large, multiscene regions. The purpose of this study was to generate and evaluate a large region land-cover classification product using a multiple-layer land-characteristics database approach. To derive land-cover information, mosaicked Landsat thematic mapper (TM) scenes were analyzed in conjunction with digital elevation data (and derived slope, aspect, and shaded relief), population census information, Defense Meteorological Satellite Program city lights data, prior land-use and land-cover data, digital line graph data, and National Wetlands Inventory data. Both leaf-on and leaf-off TM data sets were analyzed. The study area was U.S. Federal Region III, which includes the states of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and West Virginia. The general procedure involved (1) generating mosaics of multiple scenes of leaves-on TM data using histogram equalization methods; (2) clustering mosaics into 100 spectral classes using unsupervised classification; (3) interpreting and labeling spectral classes into approximately 15 land-cover categories (analogous to Anderson Level 1 and 2 classes) using aerial photographs; (4) developing decision-making rules and models using from one to several ancillary data layers to resolve confusion in spectral classes that represented two or more targeted land-cover categories; and (5) incorporating data from other sources (for example, leaf-off TM data and National Wetlands Inventory data) to yield a final land-cover product. Although standard accuracy assessments were not done, a series of consistency checks using available sources of land-cover information were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach for generating accurate land-cover information for large regions.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use albedo change

Recently available satellite land cover land use (LCLU) and albedo data are used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 36 ecoregions covering 43% of the conterminous United States (CONUS). Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-free broadband albedo values are derived from Landsat LCLU classification maps located using a stratified random sampling methodology to estimate ecoregion estimates of LCLU induced albedo change and surface radiative forcing. The results illustrate that radiative forcing due to LCLU change may be disguised when spatially and temporally explicit data sets are not used. The radiative forcing due to contemporary LCLU albedo change varies geographically in sign and magnitude, with the most positive forcings (up to 0.284 Wm −2 ) due to conversion of agriculture to other LCLU types, and the most negative forcings (as low as −0.247 Wm −2 ) due to forest loss. For the 36 ecoregions considered a small net positive forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.012 Wm −2 is estimated.

Geophysical Research Letters

Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in Senegal

Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km 2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.

Biogeosciences

Accounting for land in the United States: Integrating physical land cover, land use, and monetary valuation

Land plays a critical role in both economic and environmental accounting. As an asset, it occupies a unique position at the intersection of the System of National Accounts (SNA), the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Central Framework (SEEA-CF), and (as a spatial unit) SEEA Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EEA), making land a natural starting point for developing natural capital accounts more generally. We develop a pilot set of national and subnational land accounts for the United States that are consistent with the SEEA-CF and SNA principles, quantified in both physical and monetary terms. The physical accounts utilize detailed land use (National Land Use Database) and land cover (National Land Cover Database) datasets, which provide insights into how land cover in the U.S. is changing over time. To provide aggregate estimates of land values, we use a hedonic approach that exploits fine-grain microdata (“big data” from Zillow) that contains detailed information from hundreds of millions of property transactions and their corresponding physical characteristics covering much of the U.S. Methodologically, we show that it is feasible to produce monetary accounts for land that can be directly linked to and integrated with physical land cover/use. Overall, U.S. land cover has shown declines in forests, cropland, and pasture with increases in barren, scrub/shrub, and developed classes, which are particularly concentrated in the U.S. Southeast. Nominal land values in the U.S. fell about 28% ($7 trillion) from the boom to bust periods in the prior decade, albeit with substantial regional variation, and have subsequently experienced a nearly full recovery in recent years. We estimate private land in the contiguous 48 states to be worth approximately $25.1 trillion in 2016.

Ecosystem Services

Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use change and sensitivity to snow and interannual albedo variability

Satellite-derived land cover land use (LCLU), snow and albedo data, and incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis data were used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 58 ecoregions covering 69% of the conterminous United States. A net positive surface radiative forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.029 Wm −2 due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 was estimated. The forcings for individual ecoregions were similar in magnitude to current global forcing estimates, with the most negative forcing (as low as −0.367 Wm −2 ) due to the transition to forest and the most positive forcing (up to 0.337 Wm −2 ) due to the conversion to grass/shrub. Snow exacerbated both negative and positive forcing for LCLU transitions between snow-hiding and snow-revealing LCLU classes. The surface radiative forcing estimates were highly sensitive to snow-free interannual albedo variability that had a percent average monthly variation from 1.6% to 4.3% across the ecoregions. The results described in this paper enhance our understanding of contemporary LCLU change on surface radiative forcing and suggest that future forcing estimates should model snow and interannual albedo variation.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Estimation of agricultural pesticide use in drainage basins using land cover maps and county pesticide data

A geographic information system (GIS) was used to estimate agricultural pesticide use in the drainage basins of streams that are studied as part of the U.S. Geological Survey?s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Drainage basin pesticide use estimates were computed by intersecting digital maps of drainage basin boundaries with an enhanced version of the National Land Cover Data 1992 combined with estimates of 1992 agricultural pesticide use in each United States county. This report presents the methods used to quantify agricultural pesticide use in drainage basins using a GIS and includes the estimates of atrazine use applied to row crops, small-grain crops, and fallow lands in 150 watersheds in the conterminous United States. Basin atrazine use estimates are presented to compare and analyze the results that were derived from 30-meter and 1-kilometer resolution land cover and county pesticide use data, and drainage basin boundaries at various grid cell resolutions. Comparisons of the basin atrazine use estimates derived from watershed boundaries, county pesticide use, and land cover data sets at different resolutions, indicated that overall differences were minor. The largest potential for differences in basin pesticide use estimates between those derived from the 30-meter and 1-kilometer resolution enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 exists wherever there are abrupt agricultural land cover changes along the basin divide. Despite the limitations of the drainage basin pesticide use data described in this report, the basin estimates provide consistent and comparable indicators of agricultural pesticide application in surface-water drainage basins studied in the NAWQA Program.

Open-File Report

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

California

Population estimates and land cover use of wintering Mountain Plovers in Texas

Conservation of migratory birds throughout the full annual cycle requires a comprehensive understanding of abundance and distribution in interconnected breeding, migration, and wintering habitats. The Mountain Plover ( Anarhynchus montanus ) is a rare endemic breeder of the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains regions that migrates to wintering grounds in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. Information regarding its wintering abundance and distribution, particularly in Texas, is limited. This study provides the first population estimate for Mountain Plovers wintering in Texas and examines factors influencing their land cover use. Through distance sampling surveys in six ecoregions of Texas, we estimated an annual wintering population of 3096 (95% CI 1464–6547) Mountain Plovers during 2019–2020, with the greatest abundances in the Southern Texas Plains and Western Gulf Coastal Plain ecoregions. The highest plover densities were in the Southern Texas Plains and Central Great Plains ecoregions. Most plovers were found in cultivated crops, particularly tilled fields and sod farms, and plovers preferentially selected crop fields without residual vegetation or stubble. Grass/hay fields were used less, perhaps because of tall vegetation. Our findings highlight the significance of Texas as a wintering area for Mountain Plovers and emphasize the importance of specific cropland habitats for this species. These results provide crucial insights for conservation and management efforts aimed at protecting Mountain Plovers throughout their annual cycle.

Texas

Land use and land cover change in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: 1975-1995

Shifts in the demographic and economic character of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) are driving patterns of land cover and land use change in the region. Such changes may have important consequences for ecosystem functioning. The objective of this paper is to quantify the trajectories and rates of change in land cover and use across the GYE for the period 1975-1995 using satellite imagery. Spectral and geographic variables were used as inputs to classification tree regression analysis (CART) to find "rules" which defined land use and land cover classes on the landscape. The resulting CART functions were used to map land cover and land use across seven Landsat TM scenes for 1995. We then used a thresholding technique to identify locations that differed in spectral properties between the 1995 and 1985 time periods. These "changed" locations were classified using CART functions derived from spectral and geographic data from 1985. This was similarly done for the year 1975 based on Landsat MSS data. Differences between the 1975, 1985, and 1995 maps were considered change in land cover and use. We calibrated and tested the accuracy of our models using data acquired through manual interpretation of aerial photos. Elevation and vegetative indices derived from the remotely sensed satellite imagery explained the most variance in the land use and land cover classes (-i.e., defined the "rules" most often). Overall accuracies from our study were good, ranging from 94% at the coarsest level of detail to 74% at the finest. The largest changes over the study period were the increases in burned, urban, and mixed conifer-herbaceous classes and decreases in woody deciduous, mixed woody deciduous-herbaceous, and conifer habitats. These changes have important implications for ecological function and biodiversity. The expansion of mixed conifer classes may increase fuel loads and enhance risk to the growing number of rural homes. The reduction of woody deciduous cover types is likely reducing population sizes for the numerous plant and animal species that specialize on this habitat type. Some of these species are also negatively influenced by the increase of rural homes in and near woody deciduous habitats.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Overview of South‐east Asia land cover using a NOAA AVHRR one kilometer composite

A cloud free AVHRR composite of South‐East Asia at one kilometer resolution has been produced from 38 selected daily NOAA‐11 AVHRR images. Geometric accuracy of about 1 pixel is achieved using a two‐step rectification algorithm (orbital model and transformation by ground control points). A spatial and spectral enhancement has been performed, the sea masked out and political boundaries included in the final product. This AVHRR composite is particularly useful for a comprehensive overview of land cover at a regional scale. Qualitative comparison between a monthly composite and the existing forest maps highlights the forest cover change and points out the hot spots where the maps have to be updated.

Geocarto International

The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit, historic, current, and projected land use and land cover data. The U.S. Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973–2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States. The newly developed FORE-SCE model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land cover change through 2020 for multiple plausible scenarios. Projected proportions of future land use were initially developed, and then sited on the lands with the highest potential for supporting that land use and land cover using a statistically based stochastic allocation procedure. Three scenarios of 2020 land cover were mapped for the western Great Plains in the US. The model provided realistic, high-resolution, scenario-based land-cover products suitable for multiple applications, including studies of climate and weather variability, carbon dynamics, and regional hydrology.

Journal of Land Use Science

A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data

The framework of a national land use and land cover classification system is presented for use with remote sensor data. The classification system has been developed to meet the needs of Federal and State agencies for an up-to-date overview of land use and land cover throughout the country on a basis that is uniform in categorization at the more generalized first and second levels and that will be receptive to data from satellite and aircraft remote sensors. The proposed system uses the features of existing widely used classification systems that are amenable to data derived from remote sensing sources. It is intentionally left open-ended so that Federal, regional, State, and local agencies can have flexibility in developing more detailed land use classifications at the third and fourth levels in order to meet their particular needs and at the same time remain compatible with each other and the national system. Revision of the land use classification system as presented in U.S. Geological Survey Circular 671 was undertaken in order to incorporate the results of extensive testing and review of the categorization and definitions.

Professional Paper

An interagency perspective on improving consistency and transparency of land use and land cover mapping

Executive Summary Geospatial products of land use and land cover are broadly used in many applications. For example, the annual national greenhouse gas inventory uses the National Land Cover Database, the Coastal Change Analysis Program, Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools, the Forest Inventory and Analysis, and the National Resources Inventory to represent the land use and management base of the United States and attribute sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. Federally produced land use and land cover datasets for the United States, including those from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, set the foundation for developing and informing applications such as land change, conservation, greenhouse gas monitoring, urban planning, agricultural production, ecosystem functions, and water quantity and use. No single land use and land cover product is optimal for all land use and land cover applications. Approaches for defining and mapping land use and land cover classes differ across Federal map products, reflecting the tailoring of product specifications to match specific agency needs. These differing approaches present a challenge when attempting to integrate and harmonize multiple land use and land cover products into single analysis or application frameworks. Nuanced understanding of how these products are designed and produced may not be immediately evident to users; however, the availability of a diverse suite of products also represents an opportunity, providing multiple approaches for observing landscape change. In response to the National Strategy to Advance an Integrated U.S. Greenhouse Gas Measurement, Monitoring, and Information System, this Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium-led interagency report presents (1) the current status of U.S. Federal land use and land cover products (as of May 2024), (2) existing synergies and integration among these federally produced land use and land cover products, (3) inherent challenges of creating a single consistent framework, and (4) strategies for collectively tackling these challenges to improve coordination and collaboration among data producers and facilitate the adoption of land use and land cover products for greenhouse gas monitoring and a variety of other applications.

Circular

Land use and land cover, 1972, Kentucky River area development district (KRADD)

This map is a demonstration product of experiments in land use and land cover mapping using remote sensor data. The map is a joint effort of the U.S. Geological Survey's Land Use Data and Analysis (LUDA) program and the Appalachian Regional Commission. It is part of a continuing USGS Land Information and Analysis Office demonstration of multi-discipline earth science contributions to the furthering of planning objectives.

Kentucky