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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2014

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center annual report for 2013

In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to respond to the demands of natural resource managers for rigorous scientific information and effective tools for assessing and responding to climate change. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Va., the NCCWSC has invested more than $93 million (through FY13) in cutting-edge climate change research and, in response to Secretarial Order No. 3289, established and is managing eight regional Department of Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs). In 2013: The DOI CSCs awarded nearly $7 million in funding to universities and other partners for climate and land-use change research. The scientific work of the NCCWSC-CSC enterprise moved toward projects that focus on ‘Science Infrastructure and Capacity Building’ and ‘Thematic Science’. A permanent director, David Helweg, Ph.D., was hired for the Pacific Islands CSC (PI CSC), completing the CSC leadership team. Staff scientists were hired at the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) CSCs. Each of the eight CSCs completed the formation of regional Stakeholder Advisory Committees (SACs) and a national advisory committee (ACCCNRS) was created to oversee the NCCWSC-CSC enterprise. NCCWSC staff worked on creating a searchable public database on climate change vulnerability assessments. NCCWSC scientists authored articles in a special issue of the Ecological Society of America’s journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, which was devoted to an assessment of climate change effects on biodiversity and ecosystems, and the consequences for people. Learn more about these achievements in The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Annual Report for 2013 .

Circular↗
USGS2010

Quantifying restoration success and recovery in a metal-polluted stream: A 17-year assessment of physicochemical and biological responses

Evaluating the effectiveness of stream restoration is often challenging because of the lack of pre-treatment data, narrow focus on physicochemical measures and insufficient post-restoration monitoring. Even when these fundamental elements are present, quantifying restoration success is difficult because of the challenges associated with distinguishing treatment effects from seasonal variation, episodic events and long-term climatic changes.2. We report results of one of the most comprehensive and continuous records of physical, chemical and biological data available to assess restoration success for a stream ecosystem in North America. Over a 17 year period we measured seasonal and annual changes in metal concentrations, physicochemical characteristics, macroinvertebrate communities, and brown trout Salmo trutta populations in the Arkansas River, a metal-contaminated stream in Colorado, USA.3. Although we observed significant improvements in water quality after treatment, the effectiveness of restoration varied temporally, spatially and among biological response variables. The fastest recovery was observed at stations where restoration eliminated point sources of metal contamination. Recovery of macroinvertebrates was significantly delayed at some stations because of residual sediment contamination and because extreme seasonal and episodic variation in metal concentrations prevented recolonization by sensitive species. Synthesis and applications. Because recovery trajectories after the removal of a stressor are often complex or nonlinear, long-term studies are necessary to assess restoration success within the context of episodic events and changes in regional climate. The observed variation in recovery among chemical and biological endpoints highlights the importance of developing objective criteria to assess restoration success. Although the rapid response of macroinvertebrates to reduced metal concentrations is encouraging, we have previously demonstrated that benthic communities from the Arkansas River remained susceptible to other novel anthropogenic stressors. We suggest that the resistance or resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to novel stressors may be effective indicators of restoration success that can account for the non-additive (e.g. synergistic) nature of compound perturbations. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2010

Hierarchical spatial models for predicting pygmy rabbit distribution and relative abundance

Conservationists routinely use species distribution models to plan conservation, restoration and development actions, while ecologists use them to infer process from pattern. These models tend to work well for common or easily observable species, but are of limited utility for rare and cryptic species. This may be because honest accounting of known observation bias and spatial autocorrelation are rarely included, thereby limiting statistical inference of resulting distribution maps. We specified and implemented a spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical model for a cryptic mammal species (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis). Our approach used two levels of indirect sign that are naturally hierarchical (burrows and faecal pellets) to build a model that allows for inference on regression coefficients as well as spatially explicit model parameters. We also produced maps of rabbit distribution (occupied burrows) and relative abundance (number of burrows expected to be occupied by pygmy rabbits). The model demonstrated statistically rigorous spatial prediction by including spatial autocorrelation and measurement uncertainty. We demonstrated flexibility of our modelling framework by depicting probabilistic distribution predictions using different assumptions of pygmy rabbit habitat requirements. Spatial representations of the variance of posterior predictive distributions were obtained to evaluate heterogeneity in model fit across the spatial domain. Leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to evaluate the overall model fit. Synthesis and applications. Our method draws on the strengths of previous work, thereby bridging and extending two active areas of ecological research: species distribution models and multi-state occupancy modelling. Our framework can be extended to encompass both larger extents and other species for which direct estimation of abundance is difficult. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2008

Ecology in the information age: Patterns of use and attrition rates of internet-based citations in ESA journals, 1997–2005

As the amount of information available on the internet has increased, so too has the number of citations to network-accessible information in scholarly research. We searched all papers in four Ecological Society of America journals from 1997 to 2005 for articles containing a citation to material on the internet. We then tested the links to determine whether the information cited in the paper was still accessible. We identified 877 articles that contained at least one link to information on the internet and a total of 2100 unique links. The majority of these citations were based on an object's location (Uniform Resource Locator; 77%), whereas the rest were based on an object's identity (eg Digital Object Identifier, GenBank Accession number). We found that 19–30% of the location-based links were unavailable and that there was a positive relationship between the age of an article and the probability of the link being inactive. Using an internet search engine, we recovered 72–84% of the lost information, leaving a total of 6.2% of the total citations unavailable. Our results highlight the problem of persistence of information stored on the world wide web and we include recommendations for minimizing this problem.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2010

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2011

On thinning of chains in MCMC

1. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation technique that has revolutionised the analysis of ecological data, allowing the fitting of complex models in a Bayesian framework. Since 2001, there have been nearly 200 papers using MCMC in publications of the Ecological Society of America and the British Ecological Society, including more than 75 in the journal Ecology and 35 in the Journal of Applied Ecology . 2. We have noted that many authors routinely 'thin' their simulations, discarding all but every k th sampled value; of the studies we surveyed with details on MCMC implementation, 40% reported thinning. 3. Thinning is often unnecessary and always inefficient, reducing the precision with which features of the Markov chain are summarised. The inefficiency of thinning MCMC output has been known since the early 1990's, long before MCMC appeared in ecological publications. 4. We discuss the background and prevalence of thinning, illustrate its consequences, discuss circumstances when it might be regarded as a reasonable option and recommend against routine thinning of chains unless necessitated by computer memory limitations.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2007

River enhancement in the Upper Mississippi River basin: Approaches based on river uses, alterations, and management agencies

The Upper Mississippi River is characterized by a series of locks and dams, shallow impoundments, and thousands of river channelization structures that facilitate commercial navigation between Minneapolis, Minnesota, and Cairo, Illinois. Agriculture and urban development over the past 200 years have degraded water quality and increased the rate of sediment and nutrient delivery to surface waters. River enhancement has become an important management tool employed to address causes and effects of surface water degradation and river modification in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. We report information on individual river enhancement projects and contrast project densities, goals, activities, monitoring, and cost between commercially non-navigated and navigated rivers (Non-navigated and Navigated Rivers, respectively). The total number of river enhancement projects collected during this effort was 62,108. Cost of all projects reporting spending between 1972 and 2006 was about US$1.6 billion. Water quality management was the most cited project goal within the basin. Other important goals in Navigated Rivers included in-stream habitat improvement and flow modification. Most projects collected for Non-navigated Rivers and their watersheds originated from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the USDA were important sources for projects in Navigated Rivers. Collaborative efforts between agencies that implement projects in Non-navigated and Navigated Rivers may be needed to more effectively address river impairment. However, the current state of data sources tracking river enhancement projects deters efficient and broad-scale integration. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2007 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2009

Bird population density estimated from acoustic signals

Many animal species are detected primarily by sound. Although songs, calls and other sounds are often used for population assessment, as in bird point counts and hydrophone surveys of cetaceans, there are few rigorous methods for estimating population density from acoustic data. 2. The problem has several parts - distinguishing individuals, adjusting for individuals that are missed, and adjusting for the area sampled. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) is a statistical methodology that addresses jointly the second and third parts of the problem. We have extended SECR to use uncalibrated information from acoustic signals on the distance to each source. 3. We applied this extension of SECR to data from an acoustic survey of ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla density in an eastern US deciduous forest with multiple four-microphone arrays. We modelled average power from spectrograms of ovenbird songs measured within a window of 0??7 s duration and frequencies between 4200 and 5200 Hz. 4. The resulting estimates of the density of singing males (0??19 ha -1 SE 0??03 ha -1 ) were consistent with estimates of the adult male population density from mist-netting (0??36 ha -1 SE 0??12 ha -1 ). The fitted model predicts sound attenuation of 0??11 dB m -1 (SE 0??01 dB m -1 ) in excess of losses from spherical spreading. 5.Synthesis and applications. Our method for estimating animal population density from acoustic signals fills a gap in the census methods available for visually cryptic but vocal taxa, including many species of bird and cetacean. The necessary equipment is simple and readily available; as few as two microphones may provide adequate estimates, given spatial replication. The method requires that individuals detected at the same place are acoustically distinguishable and all individuals vocalize during the recording interval, or that the per capita rate of vocalization is known. We believe these requirements can be met, with suitable field methods, for a significant number of songbird species. ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2009

Habitat structure mediates predation risk for sedentary prey: Experimental tests of alternative hypotheses

Predation is an important and ubiquitous selective force that can shape habitat preferences of prey species, but tests of alternative mechanistic hypotheses of habitat influences on predation risk are lacking. 2. We studied predation risk at nest sites of a passerine bird and tested two hypotheses based on theories of predator foraging behaviour. The total-foliage hypothesis predicts that predation will decline in areas of greater overall vegetation density by impeding cues for detection by predators. The potential-prey-site hypothesis predicts that predation decreases where predators must search more unoccupied potential nest sites. 3. Both observational data and results from a habitat manipulation provided clear support for the potential-prey-site hypothesis and rejection of the total-foliage hypothesis. Birds chose nest patches containing both greater total foliage and potential nest site density (which were correlated in their abundance) than at random sites, yet only potential nest site density significantly influenced nest predation risk. 4. Our results therefore provided a clear and rare example of adaptive nest site selection that would have been missed had structural complexity or total vegetation density been considered alone. 5. Our results also demonstrated that interactions between predator foraging success and habitat structure can be more complex than simple impedance or occlusion by vegetation. ?? 2008 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2023

Metabolically diverse microorganisms mediate methylmercury formation under nitrate-reducing conditions in a dynamic hydroelectric reservoir

Brownlee Reservoir is a mercury (Hg)-impaired hydroelectric reservoir that exhibits dynamic hydrological and geochemical conditions and is located within the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, USA. Methylmercury (MeHg) contamination in fish is a concern in the reservoir. While MeHg production has historically been attributed to sulfate-reducing bacteria and methanogenic archaea, microorganisms carrying the hgcA gene are taxonomically and metabolically diverse and the major biogeochemical cycles driving mercury (Hg) methylation are not well understood. In this study, Hg speciation and redox-active compounds were measured throughout Brownlee Reservoir across the stratified period in four consecutive years (2016–2019) to identify the location where and redox conditions under which MeHg is produced. Metagenomic sequencing was performed on a subset of samples to characterize the microbial community with hgcA and identify possible links between biogeochemical cycles and MeHg production. Biogeochemical profiles suggested in situ water column Hg methylation was the major source of MeHg. These profiles, combined with genome-resolved metagenomics focused on hgcA -carrying microbes, indicated that MeHg production occurs in this system under nitrate- or manganese-reducing conditions, which were previously thought to preclude Hg-methylation. Using this multidisciplinary approach, we identified the cascading effects of interannual variability in hydrology on the redox status, microbial metabolic strategies, abundance and metabolic diversity of Hg methylators, and ultimately MeHg concentrations throughout the reservoir. This work expands the known conditions conducive to producing MeHg and suggests that the Hg-methylation mitigation efforts by nitrate or manganese amendment may be unsuccessful in some locations.

Idaho↗
USGS2025

Sulfide stress tolerance as a controller of methane production in temperate wetlands

Wetlands are a major source of methane emissions and contribute to the observed increase in atmospheric methane over the last 20 years. Methane production in wetlands is the final step of carbon decomposition performed by anaerobic archaea. Although hydrogen/carbon dioxide and acetate are the substrates most often attributed to methanogenesis, other substrates—such as methylated compounds—may additionally play important roles in driving methane production in wetland systems. Here we conducted mesocosm experiments combined with genome-resolved metatranscriptomics to investigate the impact of diverse methanogenic substrate amendment on methanogenesis in two high methane-emitting wetlands with distinct geochemistry, termed P7 and P8. Methanol amendment resulted in high methane production at both sites, whereas acetate and formate amendment only stimulated methanogenesis in P7 mesocosms, where aqueous sulfide concentrations were lower. In P7 sediments, formate amendment fueled acetogenic microbes that produced acetate, which was subsequently utilized by acetoclastic methanogens. In contrast to expression profiles in P7 mesocosms, active methylotrophic methanogen genomes from P8 showed increased expression of genes related to membrane remodeling and DNA damage repair, indicative of stress tolerance mechanisms to counter sulfide toxicity. Methylotrophic methanogenesis generates higher free energy yields than acetoclastic methanogenesis, which likely enables allocation of more energy toward stress responses. These findings contribute to the growing body of literature highlighting methylotrophic methanogenesis as an important methane production pathway in wetlands. By using less competitive substrates like methanol that provide greater energy yields, methylotrophic methanogens may invest in physiological strategies that provide competitive advantages across a range of environmental stresses.

North Dakota↗
USGS2005

Changes in mass and nutrient content of wood during decomposition in a south Florida mangrove forest

1 Large pools of dead wood in mangrove forests following disturbances such as hurricanes may influence nutrient fluxes. We hypothesized that decomposition of wood of mangroves from Florida, USA (Avicennia germinans, Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle), and the consequent nutrient dynamics, would depend on species, location in the forest relative to freshwater and marine influences and whether the wood was standing, lying on the sediment surface or buried. 2 Wood disks (8-10 cm diameter, 1 cm thick) from each species were set to decompose at sites along the Shark River, either buried in the sediment, on the soil surface or in the air (above both the soil surface and high tide elevation). 3 A simple exponential model described the decay of wood in the air, and neither species nor site had any effect on the decay coefficient during the first 13 months of decomposition. 4 Over 28 months of decomposition, buried and surface disks decomposed following a two-component model, with labile and refractory components. Avicennia germinans had the largest labile component (18 ?? 2% of dry weight), while Laguncularia racemosa had the lowest (10 ?? 2%). Labile components decayed at rates of 0.37-23.71% month -1, while refractory components decayed at rates of 0.001-0.033% month-1. Disks decomposing on the soil surface had higher decay rates than buried disks, but both were higher than disks in the air. All species had similar decay rates of the labile and refractory components, but A. germinans exhibited faster overall decay because of a higher proportion of labile components. 5 Nitrogen content generally increased in buried and surface disks, but there was little change in N content of disks in the air over the 2-year study. Between 17% and 68% of total phosphorus in wood leached out during the first 2 months of decomposition, with buried disks having the greater losses, P remaining constant or increasing slightly thereafter. 6 Newly deposited wood from living trees was a short-term source of N for the ecosystem but, by the end of 2 years, had become a net sink. Wood, however, remained a source of P for the ecosystem. 7 As in other forested ecosystems, coarse woody debris can have a significant impact on carbon and nutrient dynamics in mangrove forests. The prevalence of disturbances, such as hurricanes, that can deposit large amounts of wood on the forest floor accentuates the importance of downed wood in these forests. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2005

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2005

Inferring differential evolutionary processes of plant persistence traits in Northern Hemisphere Mediterranean fire-prone ecosystems

1 Resprouting capacity (R) and propagule-persistence (P) are traits that are often considered to have evolved where there are predictable crown fires. Because several indicators suggest a stronger selective pressure for such traits in California than in the Mediterranean Basin, we hypothesize that plant species should have evolved to become R+ and P+ more frequently in California than in the Mediterranean Basin. 2 To test this hypothesis we studied the phylogenetic association between R and P states in both California and the Mediterranean Basin using published molecular phylogenies. 3 The results suggest that R and P evolved differently in the two regions. The occurrence of the states differs significantly between regions for trait P, but not for trait R. The different patterns (towards R+ and P+ in California and towards R+ and P- in the Mediterranean Basin) are reflected in the higher abundance and the wider taxonomic distribution of species with both persistence traits (R+P+ species) in California. 4 The differential acquisition of fire persistence mechanisms at the propagule level (P+) supports the idea that fire selective pressures has been higher in California than in the Mediterranean Basin. 5 Our comparative phylogenetic-informed analysis contributes to an understanding of the differential role of the Quaternary climate in determining fire persistence traits in different Mediterranean-type ecosystems and, thus, to the debate on the evolutionary convergence of traits. ?? 2006 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2009

Body size and predatory performance in wolves: Is bigger better?

Large body size hinders locomotor performance in ways that may lead to trade-offs in predator foraging ability that limit the net predatory benefit of larger size. For example, size-related improvements in handling prey may come at the expense of pursuing prey and thus negate any enhancement in overall predatory performance due to increasing size. 2. This hypothesis was tested with longitudinal data from repeated observations of 94 individually known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. Wolf size was estimated from an individually based sex-specific growth model derived from body mass measurements of 304 wolves. 3. Larger size granted individual wolves a net predatory advantage despite substantial variation in its effect on the performance of different predatory tasks; larger size improved performance of a strength-related task (grappling and subduing elk) but failed to improve performance of a locomotor-related task (selecting an elk from a group) for wolves > 39 kg. 4. Sexual dimorphism in wolf size also explained why males outperformed females in each of the three tasks considered (attacking, selecting, and killing). 5. These findings support the generalization that bigger predators are overall better hunters, but they also indicate that increasing size ultimately limits elements of predatory behaviour that require superior locomotor performance. We argue that this could potentially narrow the dietary niche of larger carnivores as well as limit the evolution of larger size if prey are substantially more difficult to pursue than to handle. ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2021

Gulf of Mexico blue hole harbors high levels of novel microbial lineages

Exploration of oxygen-depleted marine environments has consistently revealed novel microbial taxa and metabolic capabilities that expand our understanding of microbial evolution and ecology. Marine blue holes are shallow karst formations characterized by low oxygen and high organic matter content. They are logistically challenging to sample, and thus our understanding of their biogeochemistry and microbial ecology is limited. We present a metagenomic and geochemical characterization of Amberjack Hole on the Florida continental shelf (Gulf of Mexico). Dissolved oxygen became depleted at the hole’s rim (32 m water depth), remained low but detectable in an intermediate hypoxic zone (40–75 m), and then increased to a secondary peak before falling below detection in the bottom layer (80–110 m), concomitant with increases in nutrients, dissolved iron, and a series of sequentially more reduced sulfur species. Microbial communities in the bottom layer contained heretofore undocumented levels of the recently discovered phylum Woesearchaeota (up to 58% of the community), along with lineages in the bacterial Candidate Phyla Radiation (CPR). Thirty-one high-quality metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) showed extensive biochemical capabilities for sulfur and nitrogen cycling, as well as for resisting and respiring arsenic. One uncharacterized gene associated with a CPR lineage differentiated hypoxic from anoxic zone communities. Overall, microbial communities and geochemical profiles were stable across two sampling dates in the spring and fall of 2019. The blue hole habitat is a natural marine laboratory that provides opportunities for sampling taxa with under-characterized but potentially important roles in redox-stratified microbial processes.

Interational Society of Microbial Ecology (ISME) J↗
USGS2005

Predator functional response and prey survival: Direct and indirect interactions affecting a marked prey population

1. Predation plays an integral role in many community interactions, with the number of predators and the rate at which they consume prey (i.e. their functional response) determining interaction strengths. Owing to the difficulty of directly observing predation events, attempts to determine the functional response of predators in natural systems are limited. Determining the forms that predator functional responses take in complex systems is important in advancing understanding of community interactions. 2. Prey survival has a direct relationship to the functional response of their predators. We employed this relationship to estimate the functional response for bald eagle Haliaeetus leucocepalus predation of Canada goose Branta canadensis nests. We compared models that incorporated eagle abundance, nest abundance and alternative prey presence to determine the form of the functional response that best predicted intra-annual variation in survival of goose nests. 3. Eagle abundance, nest abundance and the availability of alternative prey were all related to predation rates of goose nests by eagles. There was a sigmoidal relationship between predation rate and prey abundance and prey switching occurred when alternative prey was present. In addition, predation by individual eagles increased as eagle abundance increased. 4. A complex set of interactions among the three species examined in this study determined survival rates of goose nests. Results show that eagle predation had both prey- and predator-dependent components with no support for ratio dependence. In addition, indirect interactions resulting from the availability of alternative prey had an important role in mediating the rate at which eagles depredated nests. As a result, much of the within-season variation in nest survival was due to changing availability of alternative prey consumed by eagles. 5. Empirical relationships drawn from ecological theory can be directly integrated into the estimation process to determine the mechanisms responsible for variation in observed survival rates. The relationship between predator functional response and prey survival offers a flexible and robust method to advance our understanding of predator-prey interactions in many complex natural systems where prey populations are marked and regularly visited. ?? 2006 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗