USGS ScienceSearch

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Journal of Disaster Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling

Erosion and deposition from tsunamis record information about tsunami hydrodynamics and size that can be interpreted to improve tsunami hazard assessment. We explore sources and methods for quantifying uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty varies with tsunami, study site, available input data, sediment grain size, and model. Although uncertainty has the potential to be large, published case studies indicate that both forward and inverse tsunami sediment transport models perform well enough to be useful for deciphering tsunami characteristics, including size, from deposits. New techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as Ensemble Kalman Filtering inversion, and more rigorous reporting of uncertainties will advance the science of tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty may be decreased with additional laboratory studies that increase our understanding of the semi-empirical parameters and physics of tsunami sediment transport, standardized benchmark tests to assess model performance, and development of hybrid modeling approaches to exploit the strengths of forward and inverse models.

Journal of Disaster Research

Bayesian hierarchical modeling for probabilistic estimation of tsunami amplitude from far-field earthquake sources

Evaluation of tsunami disaster risk for a coastal region requires reliable estimation of tsunami hazard, for example, wave amplitude close to the shore. Observed tsunami data are scarce and have poor spatial coverage, and for this reason probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) traditionally relies on numerical simulation of “synthetic” tsunami generation and propagation toward the coast. Such an approach has been extensively studied in the past and it is widely recognized as an important disaster-risk mitigation tool. PTHA can not only provide less uncertain and spatially coherent hazard estimates in comparison with classical empirical data analysis which is restricted at the tide gauge stations, but also local inundation information. In this paper, we explore a purely statistical alternative to traditional PTHA for evaluation of tsunami amplitude hazard. Here, we use tide gauge measurements of tsunami amplitude along the western United States, specifically California and Oregon, and develop a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to assess tsunami hazard from far-field earthquake sources at various recurrence intervals. The configuration of our model incorporates latent Gaussian fields that utilize information on the distance between tide gauges as well as on the continental shelf width, that is, a covariate linked to potential dissipative effects on wave energy as the tsunami travels over shallow water. Through our BHM, we produce spatially continuous probabilistic maps of far-field tsunami hazard which can aid comprehensive tsunami disaster risk reduction and management.

California, Oregon, Washington

Deaf, deafblind, and hard of hearing university student experiences with earthquake early warning in the United States: Evaluating language planning and technology access

The growing literature on deaf and hard of hearing (DHH+) populations and disasters demonstrates that emergency communication (including alerts) is not reaching global DHH + individuals with dangerous impacts for morbidity and mortality. This is the first research study in the U.S. to qualitatively explore the experiences of DHH + persons with earthquake early warning (EEW) through group-based dialogue sessions. The study investigates eight DHH + university students'past earthquake experiences, access to EEW alerts, and perceptions of ShakeAlert Ⓡ , an EEW system for detecting earthquakes and alerting residents of California, Oregon, and Washington. Findings highlight key gaps in disaster alert usability within four thematic areas: lack of messaging in participants' language(s), unclear alert messaging, deficient message delivery mechanisms for deafblind persons, and insufficient access to earthquake information and training that leads to dependence on informal information networks. Weaknesses identified in these four themes reduce DHH + trust in EEW systems and compromise the capacity of alert recipients to take swift protective action or to mentally prepare before shaking starts. The study also underscores structural factors such as insufficient linguistic representation in disaster language planning and technology design, which ignores the linguistic and sensory access needs of DHH + individuals. Building on disaster language planning frameworks, we recommend involving DHH + populations to co-develop EEW alerts. By centering DHH + perspectives, this research contributes to ongoing efforts to ensure that EEW systems reach everyone.

California

Methods and lessons for business resilience and recovery surveys

Surveys are important tools in business resilience and recovery research because of their ability to capture disaggregated economic information; however, they can be difficult and costly due to business operational dynamics and the larger challenges of disaster research. The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a recent example where demand for business data was high across both research and practice. Yet, the methods and modes for collecting data were limited due to safety, health, and ethical concerns. This research seeks to address the lack of tailored guidance for conducting business resilience and recovery surveys by collecting and synthesizing instruments and best practices from previous survey efforts. These previous surveys were undertaken by a diverse group of organizations with varied research questions, objectives, and hazard events of interest. This paper discusses six broad lessons: clearly define purpose, objectives, and concepts; recognize that response rates will be low, consider disaster dynamics in the research design, address bias that can be exacerbated by disasters, take care to acknowledge the unique ethical considerations of disaster resilience surveys in the business and economic context, and verify and validate data at all stages of the survey process. These lessons, in addition to the published instruments themselves, support researchers or practitioners who wish to conduct their own business resilience and recovery surveys in the future.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

#TheSmoreYouKnow and #emergencycute: A conceptual model on the use of humor by science agencies during crisis to create connection, empathy, and compassion

Studies from a variety of disciplines reveal that humor can be a useful method to reduce stress and increase compassion, connection, and empathy between agencies and people they serve during times of crisis. Despite this growing evidence base, humor's use during a geohazard (earthquake, volcanoes , landslides, and tsunami) to aid scientific agencies' crisis communication response has been rarely studied. A broad literature review of humor in crisis and an exploratory examination of several case studies reveal that scientific organizations, specifically those that respond to geohazards, can harness the power of humor to help create connection and empathy with the publics they seek to serve. We find evidence that supports our argument that the use of humor acknowledges a shared human experience, reducing the barriers between public officials, scientists, and the people most impacted by crisis. Public statements made by scientists and public officials during the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) response to the Kīlauea eruption in 2018 in Hawai'i, United States, and GNS Science/GeoNet (GeoNet) response to the M7.8 Kaikōura/North Hurunui earthquake in 2016 in Aotearoa New Zealand, are used to inform the development of this conceptual model. We then posit a conceptual model which unifies concepts from the literature with our case studies to provide potential guidelines for those crisis communicators working for science agencies on how best to use humor to help people cope during times of crisis. This model can be further tested for future research to determine its effectiveness and utility for scientific agencies responding to geological crises.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Review and update of the applications of organic petrology: Part 2, geological and multidisciplinary applications

The present paper is focused on organic petrology applied to unconventional and multidisciplinary investigations and is the second part of a two part review that describes the geological applications and uses of this branch of earth sciences. Therefore, this paper reviews the use of organic petrology in investigations of: (i) ore genesis when organic matter occurs associated with mineralization; (ii) the behavior of organic matter in coal fires (self-heating and self-combustion); (iii) environmental and anthropogenic impacts associated with the management and industrial utilization of coal; (iv) archeology and the nature and geographical provenance of objects of organic nature such as jet, amber, other artifacts and coal from archeological sites; and (v) forensic science connected with criminal behavior or disasters. This second part of the review outlines the most recent research and applications of organic petrology in those fields.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Historical eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, 1768-1998

Information on Merapi eruptive activity is scattered and much is remotely located. A concise and well-documented summary of this activity has been long needed to assist researchers and hazard-mitigation efforts, and the aim of this paper is to synthesize information from the mid-1700s to the present. A descriptive chronology is given, with an abbreviated chronology in a table that summarizes events by year, assigns preliminary Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ratings and Hartmann classifications, and provides key references. The history of volcano monitoring is also outlined. The study reveals that a major difference in eruption style exists between the twentieth and nineteenth centuries, although the periodicity between larger events seems about the same. During the twentieth century, activity has comprised mainly the effusive growth of viscous lava domes and lava tongues, with occasional gravitational collapses of parts of oversteepened domes to produce the nue??es ardentes - commonly defined as "Merapi-type". In the 1800s, however, explosive eruptions of relatively large size occurred (to VEI 4), and some associated "fountain-collapse" nue??es ardentes were larger and farther reaching than any produced in the twentieth century. These events may also be regarded as typical eruptions for Merapi. The nineteenth century activity is consistent with the long-term pattern of one relatively large event every one or two centuries, based on the long-term eruptive record deduced by others from volcanic stratigraphy. It is uncertain whether or not a "recurrence-time" model continues to apply to Merapi, but if so, Merapi could soon be due for another large event and its occurrence with only modest (or inadequately appreciated) precursors could lead to a disaster unprecedented in Merapi's history because the area around the volcano is now much more densely populated.

Java, Merapi Volcano

Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand

On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine’s Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine’s Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast. The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.

Christchurch

Great expectations for earthquake early warnings on the United States West Coast

In October 2019, California became the first state in the United States to fully activate a public earthquake early warning system—ShakeAlert®—managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The system was subsequently rolled out in March 2021 in Oregon and May 2021 in Washington. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can provide seconds of notice to people and technological systems that shaking is imminent, but their effectiveness depends on recipients’ expectations and actions as well as technical performance. To better understand these dependencies, we surveyed representative samples of adults in California (N = 1219), Oregon (N = 1020), and Washington (N = 1037) in February 2021. Most respondents had experienced earthquakes, but few had lived through violent shaking; most had not followed protective action guidance to Drop, Cover, and Hold On (DCHO) in earthquakes; and most reported no personal or social harm from prior earthquakes. Nevertheless, expectations and perceived usefulness of EEW were high, and higher still for those who expected alerts to be accurate and easy to use, expressed tolerance of missed and erroneous warnings, and expected to be affected by a damaging earthquake in their lifetime. Results suggest opportunities to better align public preferences and expectations with ShakeAlert operations. For example, some respondents preferred lower alerting thresholds than those proposed by government and scientists. Moreover, reported tolerance of warning errors was widespread, but respondents wanted explanations quickly, suggesting a need to further develop post-alert messaging. Findings from this study should be informative for future research on the co-evolution of experiences and expectations with EEW systems.

California, Oregon, Washington

Character of community response to volcanic crises at Sinabung and Kelud volcanoes

Volcano disaster mitigation is a priority in Indonesia's national development plan due to the large number of active volcanoes, high frequency of eruptions and dense population within volcanic hazards zones. As a consequence of these factors and the many decades of experience in mitigation of volcanic risk, Indonesia demonstrates that effective community response is critical to avoid disasters. Understanding of hazards, risks and early-warning systems are the main factors in building an effective community response. The level of understanding of these factors is proportional to a community's independence in taking appropriate actions and is reflected in the community's preparedness. Further, the experience gained from responses to the eruptions of Sinabung and Kelud as well as from other Indonesian volcanoes shows that a local leader plays an important role in mobilizing a community. Such a leader utilizes knowledge of local culture (local wisdom) and an understanding of the community's character to encourage community members to participate and empower themselves. Sharing of information and the formulation of a disaster mitigation plan by government and community also results in a shared commitment to increase participation and community empowerment. Indonesia uses four volcano alert levels to activate community mitigation plans. In order of increasing criticality, these are: Normal, Advisory (Waspada), Watch (Siaga) and Warning (Awas). Implementation of policies, strategies and actions are tied to each level. In addition, mandatory actions by certain stakeholders are required at certain alert levels. These mandatory actions increase the effectiveness of disaster mitigation by both government and community. A comparison of the crisis responses of the Sinabung and Kelud communities is carried out here in order to better understand problems, learn lessons and improve the process of Indonesia's community mitigation policies. Local culture, the start time of community involvement (in normal versus crisis time), degree and level of government involvement, roles of local leaders, local perception of hazards, and political intervention are all factors that influence a community's response at the time of eruption. We stress that an understanding of the “ community character ,” which includes a number of cultural, social and knowledge parameters is essential for effective crisis management. The responses of Sinabung and Kelud illustrate both the key role of community in disaster mitigation and the synergy that can result from close coordination and collaboration between government and community.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Perceptions of earthquake and tsunami issues in U.S. Pacific Northwest port and harbor communities

Although there is considerable energy focused on assessing natural hazards associated with earthquakes and tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, little has been done to understand societal vulnerability to these hazards. Part of understanding societal vulnerability includes assessing the perceptions and priorities of public sector individuals with traditional emergency management responsibilities and of private citizens who could play key roles in community recovery. In response to this knowledge gap, we examine earthquake and tsunami perceptions of stakeholders and decision makers from coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, focusing on perceptions of (1) regional hazards and societal vulnerability, (2) the current state of readiness, and (3) priorities for future hazard adjustment efforts. Results of a mailed survey suggest that survey participants believe that earthquakes and tsunamis are credible community threats. Most communities are focusing on regional mitigation and response planning, with less effort devoted to recovery plans or to making individual organizations more resilient. Significant differences in expressed perceptions and priorities were observed between Oregon and Washington respondents, mainly on tsunami issues. Significant perception differences were also observed between private and public sector respondents. Our results suggest the need for further research and for outreach and planning initiatives in the Pacific Northwest to address significant gaps in earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and readiness.

International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disa

Typology development of earthquake displays in free-choice learning environments, to inform earthquake early warning education in the United States

Free-choice learning environments, such as museums, national parks, interpretive trails, and visitor centers, are trusted sources of information in their communities and support lifelong learning. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and, in turn, may increase engagement in preparedness behavior. The ShakeAlert® Earthquake Early Warning System helps publics prepare by warning in advance of shaking from significant earthquakes along the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert can minimize earthquake damage by prompting automated actions (e.g., slowing trains, shutting off water valves) and prompting personal protective actions like “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” to significantly reduce damage, injury, and loss of life. Individuals and communities must have a basic understanding of earthquake hazards, as well as an awareness of ShakeAlert technology, to know how to respond if they feel shaking or receive an alert. Currently, there is a lack of contemporary scholarship on how free-choice learning environments approach earthquake education through exhibits and displays. We analyzed a sample of existing earthquake exhibits and their themes in the United States and explored how different display types are uniquely engaging. We found that most displays did not include information about how to prepare for an earthquake or associated protective actions. From this and the development of the typology, our research posits a foundational framework for how best to incorporate place-based learning on earthquakes and early warning into centers of free-choice learning which may apply to a range of other natural hazards and will enhance public awareness and safety.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Purpose The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) cites earthquakes as the most damaging natural hazard globally, causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands of people. Earthquakes have the potential to drastically impact physical, social and economic landscapes; to reduce this risk, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been developed. However, these technical EEW systems do not operate in a vacuum; the inequities in social systems, along with the needs of diverse populations, must be considered when developing these systems and their associated communication campaigns. Design/methodology/approach This article reviews aspects of social vulnerability as they relate to ShakeAlert, the EEW system for the USA. The authors identified two theories (relationship management theory and mute group theory) to inform self-reflective questions for agencies managing campaigns for EEW systems, which can assist in the development of more inclusive communication practices. Finally, the authors suggest this work contributes to important conversations about diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues within early warning systems and earthquake preparedness campaigns in general. Findings To increase inclusivity, Macnamara (2012) argues that self-reflective questioning while analyzing perspective, philosophy and approaches for a campaign can help. Specific to EEW campaigns, developers may find self-reflective questions a useful approach to increase inclusion. These questions are guided by two theories and are explored in the paper. Research limitations/implications Several research limitations exist. First, this work explores two theories to develop a combined theoretical model for self-reflective questions. Further research is required to determine if this approach and the combination of these two theories have adequately informed the development of the reflective questions. Orginality/value The authors could find little peer-reviewed work examining DEI for EEW systems, and ShakeAlert in particular. While articles on early warning systems exist that explore aspects of this, EEW and ShakeAlert, with its very limited time frames for warnings, creates unique challenges.

West Coast

Asian dust events of April 1998

On April 15 and 19, 1998, two intense dust storms were generated over the Gobi desert by springtime low-pressure systems descending from the northwest. The windblown dust was detected and its evolution followed by its yellow color on SeaWiFS satellite images, routine surface-based monitoring, and through serendipitous observations. The April 15 dust cloud was recirculating, and it was removed by a precipitating weather system over east Asia. The April 19 dust cloud crossed the Pacific Ocean in 5 days, subsided to the surface along the mountain ranges between British Columbia and California, and impacted severely the optical and the concentration environments of the region. In east Asia the dust clouds increased the albedo over the cloudless ocean and land by up to 10–20%, but it reduced the near-UV cloud reflectance, causing a yellow coloration of all surfaces. The yellow colored backscattering by the dust eludes a plausible explanation using simple Mie theory with constant refractive index. Over the West Coast the dust layer has increased the spectrally uniform optical depth to about 0.4, reduced the direct solar radiation by 30–40%, doubled the diffuse radiation, and caused a whitish discoloration of the blue sky. On April 29 the average excess surface-level dust aerosol concentration over the valleys of the West Coast was about 20–50 μg/m 3 with local peaks >100 μg/m 3 . The dust mass mean diameter was 2–3 μm, and the dust chemical fingerprints were evident throughout the West Coast and extended to Minnesota. The April 1998 dust event has impacted the surface aerosol concentration 2–4 times more than any other dust event since 1988. The dust events were observed and interpreted by an ad hoc international web-based virtual community. It would be useful to set up a community-supported web-based infrastructure to monitor the global aerosol pattern for such extreme aerosol events, to alert and to inform the interested communities, and to facilitate collaborative analysis for improved air quality and disaster management.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report

ShakeAlert® and schools: Incorporating earthquake early warning in school districts in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington

The U.S. Geological Survey-managed ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system is the first public alerting system in the United States to provide rapid mass notification when an earthquake is detected. Although public alert delivery via mobile phones began in California in 2019 followed by Oregon and Washington in 2021, little is known about what might drive widespread implementation in at-risk institutional settings such as schools. For example, there has been limited research on how to best integrate earthquake early warning into existing emergency plans, alert systems, and drills to keep school children and personnel safe in an earthquake. To address this gap, in the spring of 2022, every school district superintendent in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington was sent a 15-min online survey. The survey assessed superintendent knowledge of ShakeAlert, preferences for alert messaging, and perceived opportunities and barriers to incorporating the system in schools. The results showed that superintendents had low awareness of ShakeAlert but held positive perceptions of the system's potential to enable life-saving protective actions. A major barrier to adoption included the perceived financial cost of implementing and maintaining the system. There were some statistically significant differences in state responses, and future research could investigate the specific needs of each state based on school district size and composition, hazard exposure, and earthquake experience. Together these findings can help inform targeted strategies to increase ShakeAlert adoption in schools and ultimately improve the safety of school children and staff during earthquakes.

Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington

The generational gap: Children, adults, and protective actions in response to earthquakes

In addition to academic curricula, schools offer regular drills to train young people and adult staff on what to do in an emergency or disaster. Earthquake drills in the United States currently recommend the protective action “drop, cover, and hold on” in the event of shaking. Yet, little is known about whether this guidance is followed in schools and homes by children and adults. To fill this gap, this research examined protective actions taken by children and adults during the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska earthquake and the 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake sequence. Our research team conducted indepth interviews with kindergarten to secondary school administrators, teachers, and students, as well with parents, emergency managers, building officials, and engineers (N = 118) in earthquake-affected communities. Our findings indicate that the most common action among children across the study locations was to drop, cover, and hold on. Adults, however, did not always follow current recommended guidance and exhibited more variability in the actions they took in response to shaking, such as trying to protect others, getting in doorways, freezing in place, or rapidly exiting buildings. This research suggests that a generational gap exists that could compromise the safety of young people as well as the adults who care for them. We recommend that earthquake training in schools be strengthened to better prepare both child and adult populations for the threat of earthquakes. Moreover, the emergence of new technologies, like ShakeAlert – the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States – can create new opportunities for disseminating alert and warning information and preparing populations for impending hazards. Recognising how children and adults may react in an earthquake can improve drills and messaging, refine risk communication strategies, and reduce injury and loss of life.

Alaska, California

Quantifying resilience

The biosphere is under unprecedented pressure, reflected in rapid changes in our global ecological, social, technological and economic systems. In many cases, ecological and social systems can adapt to these changes over time, but when a critical threshold is surpassed, a system under stress can undergo catastrophic change and reorganize into a different state. The concept of resilience, introduced more than 40 years ago in the ecological sciences, captures the behaviour of systems that can occur in alternative states. The original definition of resilience forwarded by Holling ( 1973 ) is still the most useful. It defines resilience as the amount of disturbance that a system can withstand before it shifts into an alternative stable state. The idea of alternative stable states has clear and profound implications for ecological management. Coral reefs, for example, are high-diversity systems that provide key ecosystem services such as fisheries and coastal protection. Human impacts are causing significant, ongoing reef degradation, and many reefs have shifted from coral- to algal-dominated states in response to anthropogenic pressures such as elevated water temperatures and overfishing. Understanding and differentiating between the factors that help maintain reefs in coral-dominated states vs. those that facilitate a shift to an undesired algal-dominated state is a critical step towards sound management and conservation of these, and other, important social–ecological systems. Resilience has gained popularity among both academicians and laypeople, as a term meant to describe a systems’ ability to withstand disturbance. Resilience has become a buzzword in the last decade, as shown by its increasing appearance in calls for research proposals and scientific citation data bases. The term resilience has in many cases lost the clarity of the original definition and in fact is frequently used in a manner in direct opposition to the original definition. Many current uses of the concept are loose and incorrect. The term is becoming increasingly used in a normative sense (Brand & Jax 2007 ), as if resilience were a desirable quality of systems. However, even systems in highly undesirable states, such as macro-algae dominated reefs, or city cores in poverty traps, may be highly resilient, which is to say they withstand attempts to transform them into different (desirable) states. Operationalizing the concept of resilience for application and management has been difficult. Misuse of the term can have significant negative impacts, because resilience is being used to help guide responses to natural disasters and to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and urban systems and has been driving international research priorities. Resilience has been argued to be a basic emergent property of systems, a process or a rate. We focus on the original concept as described by Holling, which is that of an emergent system property; when a system is in a desirable state and managers wish to enhance resilience, or when the system is in an undesirable state and managers wish to erode resilience and foster a transformation to an alternative state. Fostering or eroding resilience is a process. When a system is perturbed but resilience is not exceeded, then the recovery can be measured as a rate. Several frameworks to operationalize resilience have been proposed. A decade ago, a special feature focused on quantifying resilience was published in the journal Ecosystems (Carpenter, Westley & Turner 2005 ). The approach there was towards identifying surrogates of resilience, but few of the papers proposed quantifiable metrics. Consequently, many ecological resilience frameworks remain vague and difficult to quantify, a problem that this special feature aims to address. However, considerable progress has been made during the last decade (e.g. Pope, Allen & Angeler 2014 ). Although some argue that resilience is best kept as an unquantifiable, vague concept (Quinlan et al . 2016 ), to be useful for managers, there must be concrete guidance regarding how and what to manage and how to measure success (Garmestani, Allen & Benson 2013 ; Spears et al . 2015 ). Ideas such as ‘resilience thinking’ have utility in helping stakeholders conceptualize their systems, but provide little guidance on how to make resilience useful for ecosystem management, other than suggesting an ambiguous, Goldilocks approach of being just right (e.g. diverse, but not too diverse; connected, but not too connected). Here, we clarify some prominent resilience terms and concepts, introduce and synthesize the papers in this special feature on quantifying resilience and identify core unanswered questions related to resilience.

Journal of Applied Ecology