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Thermal regime of permafrost in Alaska and predicted global warming

The mean surface temperature of permafrost in Alaska has warmed locally as much as 4° C during the last century although some areas show little or no indication of a warming or cooling. There is evidence for a recent cooling, since 1983, south of Prudhoe Bay to the Brooks Range. South of the Yukon River drainage and on the south side of the Seward Peninsula, permafrost temperatures are generally within a few degree's of thawing. There is a general consensus among scientists for a climatic warming of several degrees in surface air temperatures by the middle of the next century. If this warming occurs, there will be widespread thawing of the permafrost south of the Yukon River drainage and on the south side of the Seward Peninsula in Alaska. In general, thawing of warm discontinuous permafrost would also be expected in other areas of the polar regions. This potential thawing of the permafrost could create severe environmental and engineering problems.

Alaska

Effects of elevated temperatures and rising sea level on Arctic Coast

Ice is a major agent on the inner shelf, gouging the bottom, increasing hydraulic scour, transporting sediment, and influencing river flood patterns. Rapid coastal retreat is common and low barrier islands and beaches are constantly changing due to the influence of permafrost, ice‐push, waves, and currents. Coastal processes are presently a balance between the influence of ice and the action of waves and currents. Quantitative values for processes are poorly known, however our qualitative understanding is nearly complete. Climatic warming and rising sea levels would decrease the temporal and aerial extent of coastal ice thereby expanding the role of waves and currents. As a result, shoreline retreat rates would increase, producing a transgressive erosional surface on the low coastal plain. With increased wave activity, beaches and barrier islands presently nourished by ice push processes would decay and disappear. Increased sediment supply from a deeply thawed, active layer would release more sediments to rivers and coasts. Additional research should be focused on permafrost and sea ice processes active during freeze up and breakup; the two seasons of most vigorous activity and change.

Journal of Cold Regions Engineering

Climatic change and permafrost. Record from surficial deposits

The physical and chemical characteristics of surficial deposits and the floral and faunal remains they contain provide information that is useful for interpreting both paleoclimate and past permafrost conditions. Surficial deposits thus provide a record of climatic change and permafrost history. This record suggests that initiation of permafrost in lowland areas of the Southern Arctic Archipelago and continents of the northern hemisphere may have occurred about 2,400,000 years ago during the pronounced cooling that led to the first major glaciation of late Cenozoic time. Since then, climate has been relatively cold but cyclically variable, characterized by the growth and shrinkage of large, continental ice sheets. Permafrost has expanded and contracted in response to these climatic changes, and we can expect the present permafrost conditions to change in response to future climatic changes. To predict the response of permafrost and the landscape to future climatic change we should: (1) Define relations between climate and the modern landscape; (2) establish long‐term records of past climatic change and landscape response; and (3) determine the paleoenvironments of past warm periods as possible analogs for future global warming.

Journal of Cold Regions Engineering

Where is the hot rock and where is the ground water— Using CSAMT to map beneath and around Mount St. Helens

We have observed several new features in recent controlled-source audio-frequency magnetotelluric (CSAMT) soundings on and around Mount St. Helens, Washington State, USA. We have identified the approximate location of a strong electrical conductor at the edges of and beneath the 2004–08 dome. We interpret this conductor to be hot brine at the hot-intrusive-cold-rock interface. This contact can be found within 50 meters of the receiver station on Spine 5, which extruded between April and July of 2005. We have also mapped separate regional and glacier-dome aquifers, which lie one atop the other, out to considerable distances from the volcano.

Washington