United States earthquake research program, earthquake prediction: program issue paper
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Results from the Department of the Interior Strategic Sciences Group Technical Support for the 2018 Kīlauea Eruption
On May 3, 2018 Hawai'i’s Kīlauea volcano erupted, ultimately covering 35 square kilometers (13.5 square miles) of land in lava, destroying over 700 homes in multiple subdivisions, and displacing over 2500 residents in the Puna District on the southeast flank of the volcano. Simultaneously, Kīlauea’s summit experienced its largest collapse in 200 years, with a total of 500 meters (1,640 feet) subsidence and tens of earthquakes each day rattling surrounding communities. These simultaneous events impacted residential, agricultural, business, tourist, and scientific areas. Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park closed, slowing tourism and the local economy. The building housing the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawai'ian Volcano Observatory also closed, displacing scientists responsible for monitoring the erupting volcano. The eruption lasted 107 days, one of the longest eruptions in recent history in lower Puna. Throughout the eruption, uncertainty regarding the duration of the event, its extent, and total damage remained high. This uncertainty led to social tensions and fatigue across the affected community, responders, and local officials. At the direction of the USGS Director, serving as the Science Advisor to the Secretary of the of the Interior, the Department of the Interior (DOI, hereafter also referred to as “the Department”) Strategic Sciences Group (SSG) convened a multidisciplinary group of 13 experts in Hilo, Hawai'i, on July 17-19, 2018. The SSG was charged with considering the cascading short- and long-term social, economic, and environmental consequences of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption to DOI resources, employees, and facilities as well as to the surrounding communities. Established in 2012, the SSG is designed to complement ongoing response efforts by providing strategic science to identify potential social, environmental, and economic consequences and potential interventions during a crisis event affecting Departmental resources. This activation of the SSG was funded by the USGS. It was the first official activation of the SSG since it supported Hurricane Sandy recovery in 2013 and provided the unique opportunity to test new methods, including bolstering the social science expertise on the team and interacting directly with stakeholders before, during, and after deployment. The SSG Kīlauea Team developed three scenarios focused on 1) the impacts of continued seismicity and deformation at the summit; 2) vog (volcanic smog); and 3) the eruption in the lower East Rift Zone. Across all scenarios, areas of concern included human health (physical and mental); biosecurity (for example, protecting threatened and endangered species); infrastructure (impacts caused by seismic activity, vog, and lava); communications (internal and public-facing); long-term planning (related to tourism, access, housing); and ongoing needs for community engagement and empowerment. The SSG Kīlauea Team identified 59 potential actions for mitigation. Highlights of these actions were delivered to stakeholders during briefings in August and September 2018. Examples of potential actions included: ● Seize opportunities to develop new partnerships within and outside of DOI to address facilities issues caused by seismic damage and park closure. ● Educate community members and new workers to increase early detection of invasive species and establish new wash stations to address biosecurity threats to the park posed by more frequent commuting from new temporary Hilo locations. ● Create a "vog officer" position to ensure coordination and consistency in communication about vog hazards across federal, state, and county agencies. It is important to note that the potential actions are suggestions and are not intended to be prescriptive. The SSG uses “blue sky thinking” when developing these potential actions to encourage creative approaches to problem solving. In some cases, some of the suggested potential actions derived by the SSG are actions that were already underway, or already under consideration and helped to affirm 3 activities by different stakeholders. In other cases, the actions may be new ideas. Some were applicable to immediate response, while others are more relevant to long-term recovery. This report details the results from the July 2018 activation of the SSG. It includes background on Kīlauea and the 2018 eruption, an overview of SSG methodology, and a complete list of the potential actions to mitigate cascading consequences identified by the SSG. Importantly, Appendix 4 includes several rapidly assembled “issue papers” on a variety of topics for consideration for recovery and future preparedness and response activities. This report is designed to be used by both the Department and more broadly by partners, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Hawai'i County, Hawai'i Department of Health, and the Hawai'i Emergency Management Agency.
Hawaii↗
Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities
Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources
Circular↗
The west-central Florida inner shelf and coastal system: A geologic conceptual overview and introduction to the special issue
This paper provides an overview for this special publication on the geologic framework of the inner shelf and coastal zone of west-central Florida. This is a significant geologic setting in that it lies at the center of an ancient carbonate platform facing an enormous ramp that has exerted large-scale control on coastal geomorphology, the availability of sediments, and the level of wave energy. In order to understand the Holocene geologic history of this depositional system, a regional study defined by natural boundaries (north end of a barrier island to the apex of a headland) was undertaken by a group of government and university coastal geologists using a wide variety of laboratory and field techniques. It is the purpose of this introductory paper to define the character of this coastal/inner shelf system, provide a historical geologic perspective and background of environmental information, define the overall database, present the collective objectives of this regional study, and very briefly present the main aspects of each contribution. Specific conclusions are presented at the end of each paper composing this volume. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Marine Geology↗
Preface to historic and paleoflood analyses: New perspectives on climate, extreme flood risk, and the geomorphic effects of large floods
Paleofloods are flood events that occurred prior to instrumented records that are discerned from sedimentary evidence. Historic floods are flood events that predate the instrumented record that have been reconstructed based on evidence provided by historical sources. This special issue presents papers on historic and paleoflood analyses that stemmed from the 5th International Paleoflood Symposium held in 2016 and a technical paper session convened during the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of America (GSA) in Denver, Colorado, titled ‘Paleofloods and Related Fluvial Processes during the Late Quaternary: Reconstructions and Causes.’ The papers included in this special issue address a wide variety of flood science questions, including hydrologic hazard and risk assessments, the examination of prehistoric human migration patterns, understanding relationships between large floods and climate, and the investigation of cataclysmic flood processes.
Geomorphology↗
Lessons learned from development of natural capital accounts in the United States and European Union
The United States and European Union (EU) face common challenges in managing natural capital and balancing conservation and resource use with consumption of other forms of capital. This paper synthesizes findings from 11 individual application papers from a special issue of Ecosystem Services on natural capital accounting (NCA) and their application to the public and private sectors in the EU and U.S. NCA is inherently a data-integration centered exercise, aiming to draw new insights by realigning environmental and economic data into a consistent framework. Drawing primarily on papers from the special issue and other key NCA literature, we identify lessons learned and gaps remaining for NCA’s development and application to decision making. In doing so, we identify eight key similarities and three major differences in NCA development, status, and application between the U.S. and EU. NCA can be highly policy relevant: special issue papers address critical issues including agriculture, water, conservation/land-use planning, climate, and corporate decision making. In both the U.S. and EU, further application is needed to drive demand for the accounts’ production. Based on these experiences, the U.S. and EU can be important leaders in cross-sector, international collaboration toward next-generation environmental economic accounts that advance global NCA practice.
Ecosystem Services↗
Complex interactions in Lake Michigan’s rapidly changing ecosystem
For over 30 years, Lake Michigan’s food web has been in a constant state of transition from reductions in nutrient loading and proliferation of invasive species at multiple trophic levels. In particular, there has been concern about impacts from the invasive predatory cercopagids ( Bythotrephes longimanus and Cercopagis pengoi ) and expanding dreissenid mussel and round goby populations. This special issue brings together papers that explore the status of the Lake Michigan food web and the factors responsible for these changes, and suggests research paths that must be taken for understanding and predicting system behavior. This introductory paper describes the special issue origin, presents an overview of the papers, and draws overarching conclusions from the papers.
Lake Michigan↗
Report of work done in the division of chemistry and physics mainly during the fiscal year 1884-85
The present bulletin contains some of the more important results obtained in the chemical laboratory of the United States Geological Survey during the fiscal year 1884—'85. It also contains two physical papers representing work which was mainly done during previous fiscal years, but completed during the one for which this bulletin is issued. These papers are practically continuations of or supplements to Bulletin 14.
Bulletin↗
Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan
Recent earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan show that it is important to consider the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks following large magnitude events since the probability of high intensity ground motions from aftershocks, which are capable of causing significant societal impact, can be considerable. This is due to the fact that a mainshock will have many aftershocks, some of which may occur closer to populated areas and may be large enough to cause damage. When a large magnitude event strikes a region, the chance that aftershocks will cause damage can be significant as was observed after the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Canterbury earthquakes (e.g., damage caused by M w 6.6 April 11, 2011 Fukushima-Hamadori earthquake following Tohoku earthquake or by M w 6.3 February 22, 2011 Christchurch earthquake following Canterbury earthquake). Aftershock events may further damage already damaged buildings, thereby further complicating assessments of risk to the built environment. In this paper, the issue of aftershock risk is addressed by summarizing current research regarding: (1) aftershock hazard, (2) structural fragility/vulnerability before and after the mainshock, and (3) change in risk due to aftershocks.
Conference Paper↗
Photometric changes on Saturn's Titan: Evidence for active cryovolcanism
We report infrared spectrophotometric variability on the surface of Saturn's moon Titan detected in images returned by the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) onboard the Cassini Saturn Orbiter. The changes were observed at 7°S, 138°W and occurred between October 27, 2005 and January 15, 2006. After that date the surface was unchanged until the most recent observation, March 18, 2006. We previously reported spectrophotometric variability at another location (26°S, 78°W). Cassini Synthetic Aperture RADAR (SAR) images find that the surface morphology at both locations is consistent with surface flows possibly resulting from cryovolcanic activity (Wall et al., companion paper, this issue). The VIMS‐reported time variability and SAR morphology results suggest that Titan currently exhibits intermittent surface changes consistent with present ongoing surface processes. We suggest that these processes involve material from Titan's interior being extruded or effused and deposited on the surface, as might be expected from cryovolcanism.
Geophysical Research Letters↗
TopoLens: Building a cyberGIS community data service for enhancing the usability of high-resolution National Topographic datasets
Geospatial data, often embedded with geographic references, are important to many application and science domains, and represent a major type of big data. The increased volume and diversity of geospatial data have caused serious usability issues for researchers in various scientific domains, which call for innovative cyberGIS solutions. To address these issues, this paper describes a cyberGIS community data service framework to facilitate geospatial big data access, processing, and sharing based on a hybrid supercomputer architecture. Through the collaboration between the CyberGIS Center at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a community data service for accessing, customizing, and sharing digital elevation model (DEM) and its derived datasets from the 10-meter national elevation dataset, namely TopoLens, is created to demonstrate the workflow integration of geospatial big data sources, computation, analysis needed for customizing the original dataset for end user needs, and a friendly online user environment. TopoLens provides online access to precomputed and on-demand computed high-resolution elevation data by exploiting the ROGER supercomputer. The usability of this prototype service has been acknowledged in community evaluation.
Conference Paper↗
Puerto Rico: Marine sediments, terrestrial and seafloor imagery, and tectonic interpretations
Introduction: Puerto Rico is an island situated in the plate boundary zone between the Caribbean and the North American Plates. This is a geologically fascinating, tectonically active region, where the Caribbean Plate has over-ridden the North American Plate and is now sliding past it with strike-slip motion. The details of this tectonic interaction are poorly understood, largely because much of the region lies under water, making it difficult to study. The geologic setting of Puerto Rico has created or contributed to several pressing societal issues, related to human safety, environmental health, and economic development. Because the island lies on an active plate boundary, earthquakes are a constant threat and the densely populated coastal areas are vulnerable to tsunamis. Coastal erosion is a concern in many coastal areas, but is particularly serious to an island economy which relies heavily on a thriving tourist industry. In Puerto Rico, illegal mining of beach sands for use as aggregate has exacerbated coastal erosion and left coastal communities more exposed to the ravages of storms and tsunamis. The serious need for an affordable local source of aggregate to use in the growing construction industry on the island has created a strong interest in locating and evaluating offshore sand and gravel deposits. During the last 20 years the U.S. Geological Survey, often in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Department of Natural Resources and/or the University of Puerto Rico, has conducted a variety of projects to address the geologic aspects of these pressing societal issues. The papers and data presented here are the results of these projects. Some have been previously published elsewhere; others, such as the database of surficial sediments of the Puerto Rico insular shelf, interpretation of side-looking airborne radar imagery of the island, and the GIS data, are presented here for the first time. The purpose of this CD is to make the results of these diverse studies available in a readily accessible digital form, so that managers, planners, and other researchers can utilize the results.
Puerto Rico↗
Towards establishing compact imaging spectrometer standards
Remote sensing science is currently undergoing a tremendous expansion in the area of hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technology. Spurred largely by the explosive growth of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), sometimes called Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), or drones, HSI capabilities that once required access to one of only a handful of very specialized and expensive sensor systems are now miniaturized and widely available commercially. Small compact imaging spectrometers (CIS) now on the market offer a number of hyperspectral imaging capabilities in terms of spectral range and sampling. The potential uses of HSI/CIS on UAVs/UASs seem limitless. However, the rapid expansion of unmanned aircraft and small hyperspectral sensor capabilities has created a number of questions related to technological, legal, and operational capabilities. Lightweight sensor systems suitable for UAV platforms are being advertised in the trade literature at an ever-expanding rate with no standardization of system performance specifications or terms of reference. To address this issue, both the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Institute of Standards and Technology are eveloping draft standards to meet these issues. This paper presents the outline of a combined USGS/NIST cooperative strategy to develop and test a characterization methodology to meet the needs of a new and expanding UAV/CIS/HSI user community.
International Journal of Experimental Spectroscopi↗
Forecasting for natural avalanches during spring opening of Going-to-the-Sun Road, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA
The annual spring opening of the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park presents a unique avalanche forecasting challenge. The highway traverses dozens of avalanche paths mid-track in a 23-kilometer section that crosses the Continental Divide. Workers removing seasonal snow and avalanche debris are exposed to paths that can produce avalanches of destructive class 4. The starting zones for most slide paths are within proposed Wilderness, and explosive testing or control are not currently used. Spring weather along the Divide is highly variable; rain-on-snow events are common, storms can bring several feet of new snow as late as June, and temperature swings can be dramatic. Natural avalanches - dry and wet slab, dry and wet loose, and glide avalanches - present a wide range of hazards and forecasting issues. This paper summarizes the forecasting program instituted in 2002 for the annual snow removal operations. It focuses on tools and techniques for forecasting natural wet snow avalanches by incorporating two case studies, including a widespread climax wet slab cycle in 2003. We examine weather and snowpack conditions conducive to wet snow avalanches, indicators for instability, and suggest a conceptual model for wet snow stability in a northern intermountain snow climate.
Montana↗
Aquifer depletion and potential impacts on long-term irrigated agricultural productivity
Groundwater is the Earth’s most extracted raw material, with almost 1,000 cubic kilometers per year (800 million acre-feet per year) of groundwater pumped from aquifers around the world. Approximately 70% of groundwater withdrawals worldwide are used to support agricultural production systems, and within the United States, about 71% of groundwater withdrawals are used for irrigating croplands. This percentage of groundwater used to support agriculture is even higher in arid and semi-arid areas, where the only consistent source of irrigation water is groundwater. In these regions, however, the use of groundwater typically far exceeds the rate at which it is naturally replenished, indicating that these critical groundwater resources are being slowly depleted. Within the United States, groundwater depletion has occurred in many important agricultural production regions, including the Great Plains Region (Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and northern Texas), the Central Valley of California, the Mississippi Embayment Aquifer (Mississippi River lowlands bordering Arkansas and Mississippi), aquifers in southern Arizona, and smaller aquifers in many western states. The groundwater resource with the greatest long-term depletion is the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer in the Great Plains Region of the United States, where groundwater levels have declined by more than 50 meters (150 feet) in some areas. The Central Valley of California, however, is experiencing the highest groundwater depletion intensity because of increased use over the last several decades. The most obvious consequences of depleting groundwater resources are the loss of a long-term water supply and the increased costs of pumping groundwater as the water table declines further below the ground surface. There are many other consequences associated with groundwater depletion, however, including the loss of the productivity of groundwater production wells (possibly requiring the construction of new wells); the depletion of the flow of water in rivers, creeks, and lakes when they are hydrologically connected to underlying aquifers; the shifting and subsidence of land surfaces that can occur when groundwater is extracted from aquifers; and the intrusion of high saline, or poor quality, water from other subsurface formations. The most effective approaches for addressing groundwater depletion focus on reducing or eliminating the imbalance between the inflow and outflow of water to an aquifer. Methods that focus on increasing the inflow to groundwater resources include the development of managed aquifer recharge systems and altering land-use practices to increase the infiltration of water below the land surface. Methods that focus on decreasing groundwater use include the implementation of more efficient irrigation systems, the development of agricultural crops that require less water, and the creation of economic incentives to encourage water conservation. All of these methods should be considered when developing plans to address the long-term consequences of groundwater depletion. In addition, when developing policies that regulate groundwater systems that are being depleted, the potential consequences of groundwater depletion need to be fully assessed to determine the trade-offs that exist between the undesired impacts of groundwater depletion and whether these impacts outweigh the benefits associated with groundwater use.
Issue Paper↗
Ground-water levels in the United States, 1972-74, north-central states
Publication of ground-water level data for the United States in water-supply papers was begun by the Geological Survey in 1935. From 1935 through 1939, a single water-supply paper for each year covering the entire nation was issued (Water-Supply Papers 777, 817, 840, 845, and 886). Since then water-supply papers have been issued covering 6 separate sections of the United States as shown in figure 1. See table on page 2 for the number of the water-supply paper containing records by year and section.
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, S↗
A special issue devoted to gold deposits in northern Nevada: Part 2. Carlin-type Deposits
This is the second of two special issues of Economic Geology devoted to gold deposits in northern Nevada. Readers interested in a general overview of these deposits, their economic significance, their context within the tectonic evolution of the region, and synoptic references on each gold deposit type are directed to the preface of the first special issue (John et al., 2003). Volume 98, issue 2, contains five papers that address regional aspects important to the genesis of gold deposits in northern Nevada and five papers that present detailed studies of epithermal deposits and districts. All of the regional papers are pertinent to Carlin-type gold deposits, because they address the age of mineralization (Arehart et al., 2003), origin and evolutionary history of the northwest-striking mineral belts that localize many deposits (Grauch et al., 2003), nature of the middle and lower crust below these mineral belts (Howard, 2003), district- to deposit-scale stream sediment and lithogeochemical anomalies (Theodore et al., 2003), and stratigraphy and structure of a district located along a northeast-striking lineament (Peters et al., 2003). The nine papers in this second special issue focus on an array of problems pertinent to genetic and exploration models for Carlin-type deposits in northern Nevada (Fig. 1). These investigations sort out and characterize the sequence of deformational, igneous, and hydrothermal events in mining districts, constrain the age of mineralization, map paleothermal gradients, identify structures and lithologies that are preferentially mineralized, ascertain processes of ore formation, determine sources of ore fluid components, and define fluid flow paths. A common theme among these papers is inheritance, whereby older features in the mineral belts influence ore formation in subsequent Carlin-type hydrothermal systems. Three types of inheritance are inferred by one or more of these investigations: (1) structural inheritance, where older faults are reactivated during subsequent contractional and/or extensional tectonic events producing permeable fracture systems that focused flow of ore fluids; (2) alteration inheritance, where one or more preore alteration events produced reactive host rocks that are preferentially mineralized; and (3) geochemical inheritance, in which Au and other elements are recycled from older mineralization into younger Carlin-type deposits. Despite the similar age, tectonic setting, alteration types, mineral parageneses, and geochemical signatures of the deposits studied, these papers do not lead to consensus regarding genetic models for Carlin-type deposits. Rather, the separate investigations by different workers, utilizing both similar and unlike approaches, result in markedly different conclusions. Some of this disparity probably is due to real differences in the origin of different districts; however, the opposing conclusions arrived at by investigations on neighboring deposits in a single district are more problematic and most likely are due to difficulties resulting from the superposition of different types and ages of gold mineralization or to substantial variations in the hydrology and proportions of fluid components derived from deep and shallow sources in each deposit. Further work is needed to validate and understand the significance of these differences.
Nevada↗
Introduction to special issue on carbon and landscape dynamics
In October, 2013, at the Geological Society of America annual meeting, a theme session focused on carbon and landscape dynamics. That event led to interest in producing a special issue in ESPL compiling papers on this subject. The 13 papers collected for this special issue reflect the diversity of recent geomorphic research, across a range of climatic and geomorphic settings, addressing some aspect of carbon dynamics.
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗