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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2026

Influence of modeling assumptions on pedestrian evacuation success for non-eruptive lahar hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington

Previous efforts to characterize lahar threats posed to communities downstream of volcanoes have focused primarily on delineating hazard zones that lack information on lahar-arrival times and exposure estimates that implicitly treat threats to be the same regardless of distance from the volcano. Estimated lahar-arrival times, travel times for individuals to leave hazard zones, and possible evacuation delays related to event identification, warning dissemination, and evacuee behavior are important, but often overlooked, aspects of understanding the societal threats posed by lahars. These temporal considerations are important for unexpected lahars that could occur due to slope failure in the absence of precursory volcanic unrest or eruption. This case study examines the role of time in lahar evacuations by quantifying population exposure and evacuation potential for non-eruptive lahar hazards associated with Mount Rainier, Washington. Lahars could directly affect tens of thousands of residents and employees, thousands of students at primary and secondary schools, and hundreds of individuals at long-term residential care facilities. Geospatial path-distance modeling quantified evacuation potential for 736 scenarios that represent combinations of lahar sources, evacuation destinations, pedestrian travel speeds, and a range of departure-delay assumptions. Depending on location, some communities may have substantial loss of life in tens of minutes after lahar initiation, whereas other communities may be managing large-scale evacuations over several hours. Estimates of evacuation success based on a range of scenarios provide individuals in hazard zones and risk-reduction agencies with insights on how their actions may increase or decrease the number of people that survive future lahars.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Modeling rain-fed maize vulnerability to droughts using the standardized precipitation index from satellite estimated rainfall—Southern Malawi case study

During 1990s, disaster risk reduction emerged as a novel, proactive approach to managing risks from natural hazards. The World Bank, USAID, and other international donor agencies began making efforts to mainstream disaster risk reduction in countries whose population and economies were heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This approach has more significance in light of the increasing climatic hazard patterns and the climate scenarios projected for different hazard prone countries in the world. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring the food security issues in the sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and in Haiti. FEWS NET monitors the rainfall and moisture availability conditions with the help of NOAA RFE2 data for deriving food security status in Africa. This paper highlights the efforts in using satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi. The satellite RFE2 based SPI corresponding to the critical tasseling and silking phases (in the months of January, February, and March) were statistically regressed with drought-induced yield losses at the district level. The analysis has shown that the drought conditions in February and early March lead to most damage to maize yields in this region. The district-wise vulnerabilities to drought were upscaled to obtain a regional maize vulnerability model for southern Malawi. The results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards in Malawi.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2022

Multi-hazard risk analysis for the U.S. Department of the Interior: An integration of expert elicitation, planning priorities, and geospatial analysis

An integral part of disaster risk management is identifying and prioritizing hazards and their potential impacts in a meaningful way to support risk-reduction planning. There has been considerable use and subsequent criticism of threat prioritization efforts that simply compare likelihoods and consequences of plausible threats. This article summarizes a new mixed-methods and scalable approach for prioritizing risks in a multi-hazard, multi-objective, and multi-criteria organizational context. This approach integrates (1) hazard characterizations using subject-matter-expert (SME) elicitation, (2) expressed preferences in planning priorities provided by emergency managers, and (3) quantitative estimates of asset exposure to hazards using geospatial data and geographic-information-systems (GIS) software. We demonstrate this approach with a case study designed to support multi-hazard mitigation and response planning done by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Emergency Management, which required a national understanding of the risks posed by 75 natural, technological, and adversarial hazards to DOI managed and administered lands, facilities, people, revenues, and resources. Results demonstrate that hazard priorities vary depending on the asset, scale, and risk-management context, thereby making the case that “one-size-fits-all” hazard rankings have limited utility or relevance to real-world, risk mitigation and response planning. Our results suggest that recognizing the risk-management context provides greater transparency, flexibility, and relevance in comparing threats than traditional likelihood-threat matrices or the use of hazard SMEs to decide for planners which hazard scenarios are emphasized in risk planning.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2023

Perceptions of volcanic air pollution and exposure reduction practices on the Island of Hawai‘i: Working towards socially relevant risk communication

Kīlauea volcano, on the Island of Hawai‘i, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. Over the past four decades it has released large amounts of volcanic gases and aerosols which form volcanic air pollution known as ‘vog’. Communities downwind of Kīlauea have been chronically or episodically exposed to this potentially harmful air pollution and have raised concerns about the hazards of vog exposure. Public health and civil protection agencies have offered a range of advice, information, and mitigation strategies for living with vog. In this mixed-methods social study, we investigate the translation of official advice into practice in Island of Hawai‘i communities and assess how risk communication could be improved by considering public input, preferences, and community relevance. Given the paucity of information on the long-term effects of chronic vog exposure, assessing the effectiveness of public health and risk communication is vital.

Hawaii↗
USGS2014

Tsunami vertical-evacuation planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as a geospatial, multi-criteria decision problem

Tsunami vertical-evacuation (TVE) refuges can be effective risk-reduction options for coastal communities with local tsunami threats but no accessible high ground for evacuations. Deciding where to locate TVE refuges is a complex risk-management question, given the potential for conflicting stakeholder priorities and multiple, suitable sites. We use the coastal community of Ocean Shores (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, multi-criteria decision analysis for framing the locational problem of TVE siting. We demonstrate a mixed-methods approach that uses potential TVE sites identified at community workshops, geospatial analysis to model changes in pedestrian evacuation times for TVE options, and statistical analysis to develop metrics for comparing population tradeoffs and to examine influences in decision making. Results demonstrate that no one TVE site can save all at-risk individuals in the community and each site provides varying benefits to residents, employees, customers at local stores, tourists at public venues, children at schools, and other vulnerable populations. The benefit of some proposed sites varies depending on whether or not nearby bridges will be functioning after the preceding earthquake. Relative rankings of the TVE sites are fairly stable under various criteria-weighting scenarios but do vary considerably when comparing strategies to exclusively protect tourists or residents. The proposed geospatial framework can serve as an analytical foundation for future TVE siting discussions.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may have sufficient time to evacuate. We use the neighboring coastal communities of Hoquiam, Aberdeen, and Cosmopolis (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, least-cost-distance evacuation modeling for supporting evacuation outreach, response, and relief planning. We demonstrate an approach that uses geospatial evacuation modeling to (a) map the minimum pedestrian travel speeds to safety, the most efficient paths, and collective evacuation basins, (b) estimate the total number and demographic description of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas, and (c) determine which paths may be compromised due to earthquake-induced ground failure. Results suggest a wide range in the magnitude and type of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas and highlight parts of the communities with no readily accessible assembly area. Earthquake-induced ground failures could obstruct access to some assembly areas, cause evacuees to reroute to get to other assembly areas, and isolate some evacuees from relief personnel. Evacuation-modeling methods and results discussed here have implications and application to tsunami-evacuation outreach, training, response procedures, mitigation, and long-term land use planning to increase community resilience.

Washington↗
USGS2017

The importance of building construction materials relative to other factors affecting structure survival during wildfire

Structure loss to wildfire is a serious problem in wildland-urban interface areas across the world. Laboratory experiments suggest that fire-resistant building construction and design could be important for reducing structure destruction, but these need to be evaluated under real wildfire conditions, especially relative to other factors. Using empirical data from destroyed and surviving structures from large wildfires in southern California, we evaluated the relative importance of building construction and structure age compared to other local and landscape-scale variables associated with structure survival. The local-scale analysis showed that window preparation was especially important but, in general, creating defensible space adjacent to the home was as important as building construction. At the landscape scale, structure density and structure age were the two most important factors affecting structure survival, but there was a significant interaction between them. That is, young structure age was most important in higher-density areas where structure survival overall was more likely. On the other hand, newer-construction structures were less likely to survive wildfires at lower density. Here, appropriate defensible space near the structure and accessibility to major roads were important factors. In conclusion, community safety is a multivariate problem that will require a comprehensive solution involving land use planning, fire-safe construction, and property maintenance.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2018

Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi

Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle use could be discouraged. The island of Oʻahu has two tsunami-evacuation zones (standard and extreme), which provides the opportunity to examine if recommended travel modes vary based on zone. Geospatial path distance models are applied to estimate population exposure a s a function of pedestrian travel time and speed out of evacuation zones. The use of the extreme zone triples the number of residents, employees, and facilities serving at-risk populations that would be encouraged to evacuate and slightly reduces the percentage of residents (98–76%) that could evacuate in less than 15 min at a plausible speed (with similar percentages for employees). Areas with lengthy evacuations are concentrated in the North Shore region for the standard zone but found all around the Oʻahu coastline for the extreme zone. The use of the extreme zone results in a 26% increase in the number of hotel visitors that would be encouraged to evacuate, and a 76% increase in the number of them that may require more than 15 min. Modeling can identify where pedestrian evacuations are plausible; however, there are logistical and behavioral issues that warrant attention before localized evacuation procedures may be realistic.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2019

Risk at the margins: A natural hazards perspective on the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon

Quantitative landslide risk analysis is a key step in creating appropriate land use policies. The forced migration of those displaced by recent armed conflict in Syria has highlighted the need for studies to guide humanitarian aid and resettlement policies. Over 1.5 million displaced Syrians now reside in Lebanon, self-settling throughout the country through urban integration and informal encampment due to Lebanon's prohibition of formal refugee camps. The Syrian-Lebanon refugee crisis coincides with the recent reexamination of the established aid practice of camp-based resettlement, focused on issues of aid efficacy, security, and human dignity but lacking an environmental hazards perspective. In light of these issues, we quantitatively assess the landslide risk profile of Lebanon, finding a 75% increase in landslide risk since the start of the Syrian crisis. The risk is highest in the debris flow-prone mountains of central and northeastern Lebanon. Additionally, Syrian refugees settled in informal camps experience 9–11 times greater risk then urban populations due to sub-standard shelter, suggesting that urban rather than camp-based resettlement policies are preferable from an environmental-hazards perspective.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2019

Exploring the barriers for people taking protective actions during the 2012 and 2015 New Zealand shakeout drills

To reduce future earthquake injuries and casualties, it is important that people understand how their behavior, during and immediately following earthquake shaking, exposes them to increased risk of injury or death. Research confirms that protective actions can reduce injuries and that prior training can help prepare people to take appropriate actions. In this paper, we examine barriers to participation in the ShakeOut drills in New Zealand. Through citizen science research, volunteers observed people performing the drills in 2012 and 2015. Observers reported how long it took to perform the drill and why they thought some people may not have completed it. Our findings illustrate that children, elderly, and those with both mental and physical disabilities struggled with the drill. Furthermore, embarrassment was a reported leading cause for non-participation; we recommend more inclusive messaging to address potential causes of embarrassment.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2020

Developing post-alert messaging for ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America

As ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the U.S., begins its transition to operational public alerting, we explore how post-alert messaging might represent system performance. Planned post-alert messaging can provide timely, crucial information to both emergency managers and ShakeAlert operators as well as calibrate expectations among various publics or public user groups and inform their responses to future alerts. There is a concern among the scientists and emergency managers that false alerts may negatively impact trust in the system, so quickly disseminated post-alert messages are necessary. For a new early warning system, such as ShakeAlert, this is particularly relevant given that the potentially affected population is likely to be unfamiliar with this system. We address this concern in six steps: (1) assessment of ShakeAlert performance to date, (2) characterization of human behavior and response to earthquake alerts, (3) presentation of a decision tree for issuing post-alert messages, (4) design of a critical set of post-alert messaging scenarios, (5) elaboration of these scenarios with message templates for a variety of communication channels, and (6) development of a typology of earthquake alerts. We further explore methods for monitoring and evaluating ShakeAlert post-alert messaging, for continuous improvement to the system.

California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Uta↗
USGS2020

Variations in community evacuation potential related to average return periods in probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis

Tsunami risk management requires strategies that can address multiple sources with different recurrence intervals, wave-arrival times, and inundation extents. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) provides a structured way to integrate multiple sources, including the uncertainties due to the natural variability and limited knowledge of sources. PTHA-based products relate to specific average return periods (ARP) and while there has been considerable attention paid to ARP choice for building codes, guidance on ARP choice to support evacuation planning and related land use is lacking. We use the State of California (USA) coastal communities as a case study to explore the use of geospatial analysis and pedestrian-evacuation modeling for comparing the societal implications of tsunamis based on evacuation areas that reflect inundation from 475-year, 975-year, and 2475-year ARPs. Results demonstrate that changes in PTHA ARP had a substantial effect on the number of tax-lot parcels in PTHA evacuation areas, but not on the primary land use of these parcels or which communities had the largest number of exposed parcels. Composite PTHA maps provided high-level insights on hazard exposure and identified dominant sources; however, disaggregated PTHA outputs that reflect single source parameters (e.g., wave-arrival time) were necessary to quantify evacuation potential from local and distant tsunamis. Framing changes in ARP assumption based on changes in the number, land-use type, and potential evacuation challenges of parcels in evacuation areas can provide valuable insight on the real-world implications of which ARP to use in land use or evacuation planning.

California↗
USGS2022

Typology development of earthquake displays in free-choice learning environments, to inform earthquake early warning education in the United States

Free-choice learning environments, such as museums, national parks, interpretive trails, and visitor centers, are trusted sources of information in their communities and support lifelong learning. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and, in turn, may increase engagement in preparedness behavior. The ShakeAlert® Earthquake Early Warning System helps publics prepare by warning in advance of shaking from significant earthquakes along the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert can minimize earthquake damage by prompting automated actions (e.g., slowing trains, shutting off water valves) and prompting personal protective actions like “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” to significantly reduce damage, injury, and loss of life. Individuals and communities must have a basic understanding of earthquake hazards, as well as an awareness of ShakeAlert technology, to know how to respond if they feel shaking or receive an alert. Currently, there is a lack of contemporary scholarship on how free-choice learning environments approach earthquake education through exhibits and displays. We analyzed a sample of existing earthquake exhibits and their themes in the United States and explored how different display types are uniquely engaging. We found that most displays did not include information about how to prepare for an earthquake or associated protective actions. From this and the development of the typology, our research posits a foundational framework for how best to incorporate place-based learning on earthquakes and early warning into centers of free-choice learning which may apply to a range of other natural hazards and will enhance public awareness and safety.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2022

#TheSmoreYouKnow and #emergencycute: A conceptual model on the use of humor by science agencies during crisis to create connection, empathy, and compassion

Studies from a variety of disciplines reveal that humor can be a useful method to reduce stress and increase compassion, connection, and empathy between agencies and people they serve during times of crisis. Despite this growing evidence base, humor's use during a geohazard (earthquake, volcanoes , landslides, and tsunami) to aid scientific agencies' crisis communication response has been rarely studied. A broad literature review of humor in crisis and an exploratory examination of several case studies reveal that scientific organizations, specifically those that respond to geohazards, can harness the power of humor to help create connection and empathy with the publics they seek to serve. We find evidence that supports our argument that the use of humor acknowledges a shared human experience, reducing the barriers between public officials, scientists, and the people most impacted by crisis. Public statements made by scientists and public officials during the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) response to the Kīlauea eruption in 2018 in Hawai'i, United States, and GNS Science/GeoNet (GeoNet) response to the M7.8 Kaikōura/North Hurunui earthquake in 2016 in Aotearoa New Zealand, are used to inform the development of this conceptual model. We then posit a conceptual model which unifies concepts from the literature with our case studies to provide potential guidelines for those crisis communicators working for science agencies on how best to use humor to help people cope during times of crisis. This model can be further tested for future research to determine its effectiveness and utility for scientific agencies responding to geological crises.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2022

Great expectations for earthquake early warnings on the United States West Coast

In October 2019, California became the first state in the United States to fully activate a public earthquake early warning system—ShakeAlert®—managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The system was subsequently rolled out in March 2021 in Oregon and May 2021 in Washington. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can provide seconds of notice to people and technological systems that shaking is imminent, but their effectiveness depends on recipients’ expectations and actions as well as technical performance. To better understand these dependencies, we surveyed representative samples of adults in California (N = 1219), Oregon (N = 1020), and Washington (N = 1037) in February 2021. Most respondents had experienced earthquakes, but few had lived through violent shaking; most had not followed protective action guidance to Drop, Cover, and Hold On (DCHO) in earthquakes; and most reported no personal or social harm from prior earthquakes. Nevertheless, expectations and perceived usefulness of EEW were high, and higher still for those who expected alerts to be accurate and easy to use, expressed tolerance of missed and erroneous warnings, and expected to be affected by a damaging earthquake in their lifetime. Results suggest opportunities to better align public preferences and expectations with ShakeAlert operations. For example, some respondents preferred lower alerting thresholds than those proposed by government and scientists. Moreover, reported tolerance of warning errors was widespread, but respondents wanted explanations quickly, suggesting a need to further develop post-alert messaging. Findings from this study should be informative for future research on the co-evolution of experiences and expectations with EEW systems.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2022

Actionable social science can guide community level wildfire solutions. An illustration from North Central Washington, US

In this study we illustrate the value of social data compiled at the community scale to guide a local wildfire mitigation and education effort. The four contiguous fire-prone study communities in North Central Washington, US, fall within the same jurisdictional fire service boundary and within one US census block group. Across the four communities, similar attitudes toward wildfire were observed. However, significant differences were found on the measures critical to tailoring wildfire preparation and mitigation programs to the local context such as risk mitigation behaviors, reported barriers to mitigation, and communication preferences across the four communities.

Washington↗
USGS2023

A conceptual framework for estimation of initial emergency food and water resource requirements in disasters

Many households lack the necessary food and water supplies to sustain themselves for more than three days during a disaster. Community vulnerability assessments can be used to identify households with more pressing needs for emergency food and water resources. It is critical that these assessments include the interaction between physical impacts to lifeline infrastructure and the social vulnerabilities of food and water insecurity to prioritize, allocate, and distribute emergency resources. In this paper, we review and synthesize relevant literature to propose a new multidisciplinary conceptual framework of community vulnerability assessment for estimating initial emergency food and water resource requirements in a developed country. Using the framework as a guide, we illustrate its practical application through a simplified, deterministic model of initial resource requirements in disaster response, and offer a quantitative, comprehensive description of its application within the geophysical hazard context of the “ShakeOut” scenario—a major M w 7.8 earthquake on California's San Andreas fault , occurring within the Los Angeles Basin, CA (USA) region. Model results estimate that 999,027 households (2,947,130 residents) will require initial emergency food and water resource requirements. Estimates include about 6 million meals and 9 million liters of water, concentrated in Lancaster-Palmdale, El Monte-Baldwin Park, East Los Angeles-Downey in Los Angeles County, the Coachella Valley (Riverside County), and in populated areas of San Bernardino County. A sensitivity analysis of social vulnerability interactions with utility service outages investigates the influence of food insecurity on the amplification of resource needs. This study establishes fundamental knowledge at the nexus of natural hazards, critical infrastructure disruptions, and social vulnerability by providing initial estimates of emergency resource demand while advancing the understanding of social inequity in emergency resource access.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗