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Working group on American Eel (WGAMEEL; outputs from 2024 meeting)

The Working Group on American Eel (WGAMEEL) met virtually three times in 2022-2024 to address the five Terms of Reference (ToRs) of its three-year term. The first two ToRs tasked WGAMEEL with listing and evaluating data on American eel landings, abundance indices, and spatial and habitat data and also to describe assessment methods used in Canada and the US. Canada-wide American eel trajectory was estimated using 12 fishery-independent datasets. Generally, longer datasets had more negative trends than shorter ones. Limiting data to the post-2000 years produced fewer negative trends that did not differ from zero, suggesting the observed declines occurred pre-2000. Spatial modelling for American eel requires knowledge and mapping that covers the breadth of habitat types occupied by the species, including freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments. In recent years there has been an expansion of online databases with data from the aquatic environment, particularly in freshwater, with estuarine and marine data less consistently documented. This report broadly compiles abiotic data series of relevance to American eel. A larger challenge for spatial modelling will be acquiring enough high quality, georeferenced biological data sets with suitable observations to assess occurrence, abundance, and trends over time in a spatial framework. The third ToR considered Indigenous Knowledge Systems for American eel. A survey reaching First Nations representatives from four Canadian provinces confirmed the cultural importance of eels in Indigenous communities, and that Indigenous knowledge possessed by the participant groups are place-based and contextual, especially regarding threats impacting eels. The final two ToRs focused on identifying stock assessment modelling approaches applicable to American and European eel, and assessing whether any of these approaches might be appropriate for American eel management moving forward. WGAMEEL evaluated the various approaches for assessing American eel or providing management advice. Two approaches that could be completed in the next few years because of their minimal data needs are index-based methods and catch-only method. A suite of approaches considered by WGAMEEL that would take more time and data were spatial or habitat models, management strategy evaluation, and spawner-per-recruit (SPR) models potentially paired with meta-population models.

ICES Scientific Reports

Continuous water-quality monitoring and regression analysis to estimate constituent concentrations and loads in the Sheyenne River, North Dakota, 1980-2006

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, done in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, to estimate water-quality constituent concentrations at seven sites on the Sheyenne River, N. Dak. Regression analysis of water-quality data collected in 1980-2006 was used to estimate concentrations for hardness, dissolved solids, calcium, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate. The explanatory variables examined for the regression relations were continuously monitored streamflow, specific conductance, and water temperature. For the conditions observed in 1980-2006, streamflow was a significant explanatory variable for some constituents. Specific conductance was a significant explanatory variable for all of the constituents, and water temperature was not a statistically significant explanatory variable for any of the constituents in this study. The regression relations were evaluated using common measures of variability, including R2, the proportion of variability in the estimated constituent concentration explained by the explanatory variables and regression equation. R2 values ranged from 0.784 for calcium to 0.997 for dissolved solids. The regression relations also were evaluated by calculating the median relative percentage difference (RPD) between measured constituent concentration and the constituent concentration estimated by the regression equations. Median RPDs ranged from 1.7 for dissolved solids to 11.5 for sulfate. The regression relations also may be used to estimate daily constituent loads. The relations should be monitored for change over time, especially at sites 2 and 3 which have a short period of record. In addition, caution should be used when the Sheyenne River is affected by ice or when upstream sites are affected by isolated storm runoff. Almost all of the outliers and highly influential samples removed from the analysis were made during periods when the Sheyenne River might be affected by ice.

North Dakota

Hydraulic, water-quality, and temperature performance of three types of permeable pavement under high sediment loading conditions

Three permeable pavement surfaces - asphalt (PA), concrete (PC), and interlocking pavers (PIP) - were evaluated side-by-side to measure changes to the infiltrative capacity and water quality of stormwater runoff originating from a conventional asphalt parking lot in Madison, Wisconsin. During the 24-month monitoring period (2014-16), all three permeable pavements resulted in statistically significant reductions in the cumulative load of solids (total suspended solids and suspended sediment), total phosphorus, Escherichia coli ( E. coli ), and Enterococci . Most of the removal occurred through capture and retention in the void spaces of each permeable surface and aggregate base. The largest reduction in total suspended solids was for PC at 80 percent, followed by PIP and PA at 69 and 65 percent, respectively. Reductions (generally less than 50 percent) in total phosphorus also were observed, which might have been tempered by increases in the dissolved fraction observed in PIP and PA. Conversely, PC results indicated a slight reduction in dissolved phosphorus but failed to meet statistical significance. E. coli and Enterococci were reduced by about 80 percent for PC, almost twice the amount observed for PIP and PA. Results for the PIP and PC surfaces initially indicated higher pollutant load reduction than results for the PA surface. The efficiency of PIP and PC surfaces capturing sediment, however, led to a decline in infiltration rates that resulted in more runoff flowing over, not through, the permeable surface. This result led to a decline in treatment until the permeable surface was partially restored through maintenance practices, to which PIP responded more dramatically than PC or PA. Conversely, the PA surface was capable of infiltrating most of the influent runoff volume during the monitoring period and, thus, continued to provide some level of treatment. The combined effect of underdrain and overflow drainage resulted in similar pollutant treatment for all three permeable surfaces. Temperatures below each permeable surface generally followed changes in air temperature with a more gradual response observed in deeper layers. Therefore, permeable pavement may do little to mitigate heated runoff during summer. During winter, deeper layers remained above freezing even when air temperature was below freezing. Although temperatures were not high enough to melt snow or ice accumulated on the surface, temperatures below each permeable pavement did allow void spaces to remain open, which promoted infiltration of melted ice and snow as air temperatures rose above freezing. These open void spaces could potentially reduce the need for application of deicing agents in winter because melted snow and ice would infiltrate, thereby preventing refreezing of pooled water in what is known as the “black ice” effect.

Wisconsin

U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Activities in the Exploration of Antarctica: Introduction to Antarctica (Including USGS Field Personnel: 1946-59)

INTRODUCTION Antarctica is the planet's fifth largest continent [13.2 million km2 (5.1 million mi2)]; it contains the Earth's largest (of two) remaining ice sheets; it is considered to be one of the most important scientific laboratories on Earth. This report is the introduction to a series that covers 60 years of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientific activity in Antarctica. It will concentrate primarily on three major topics: 1) a brief chronological record of the historical search, discovery, and exploration of the southern continent by humans; 2) early USGS scientific activities in Antarctica, listing expeditions, projects, people and resulting professional publications for Operation Highjump, 1946-47; Operation Windmill, 1947-48; USS Atka Reconnaissance Cruise, 1954-55; and Operation Deep Freeze I, II, III, and IV, 1955-59, including IGY; 3) significant changes that have occurred in Antarctic exploration and research since World War II will be discussed at the end of this report. Subsequent Open-File Reports will provide a year-by-year documentation of USGS scientific activities and accomplishments in Antarctica beginning with the post-IGY, 1959-60 research team. One Open-File Report is planned to be written for each field-based season. For an example of the series format, see Open-File Reports 2006-1113 (Meunier, 2007a) and 2006-1114 (Meunier, 2007b). This report is a companion document to Open-File Report 2006-1116 (Meunier, 2007c). The USGS mapping and science programs in Antarctica are among the longest continuously funded projects in the United States Antarctic Program (USAP). The 2005-06 field season is the 56th consecutive U.S. expedition in which USGS scientists have been participants, starting in 1946. USGS and the National Science Foundation (NSF) cooperation began with the establishment by NSF of the U.S. Antarctic (Research) Program [USA(R)P] in 1958-59 under Operation Deep Freeze IV (DF IV) and was given the responsibility for the principal coordination and management of all U.S. scientific activities in Antarctica in Deep Freeze 60 (DF 60) (1959-60). Financial support from NSF, mostly in the form of Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs) and Cooperative Agreements, extends back to this period and can be attributed to the need for accurate geologic, geophysical, and topographic base maps of specific field areas or regions where NSF-funded science projects were planned. The epoch of Antarctic exploration during the IGY was driven by science and, in a spirit of peaceful cooperation, the international scientific community wanted to limit military activities on the continent to logistical support (Meunier, 1979 [2007], p. 38). The USGS, a Federal civilian science agency in the Department of the Interior, has, since its founding in 1879, carried out numerous field-based national (and some international) programs in biology, geology, geophysics, hydrology, and mapping. Therefore, the USGS was the obvious choice for these tasks, because it already had a professional staff of experienced mapmakers, scientists, and program managers with the foresight, dedication, and understanding of the need for accurate maps to support the science programs in Antarctica when asked to do so by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Public Laws 85-743 and 87-626, signed in August 1958, and in September 1962, respectively, authorized the Secretary, U.S. Department of the Interior, through the USGS, to support mapping and scientific work in Antarctica (Meunier, 1979 [2007], appendix A). Open-File Report 2006-1116 includes scanned facsimiles of postal cachets. It has become an international practice to create postal cachets to commemorate special events and projects in Antarctica. A cachet is defined as a seal or commemorative design printed or stamped on an envelope to mark a philatelic or special event. The inked impression illustrates to the scientist, historian, stamp collector, and general public the multidisciplinary science projects staffed by USGS and collaborating scientists during the field season. Since 1960, philatelic cachets have been created by team members for each USGS field season and, in most cases, these cachets depict the specific geographic areas and field season program objectives. The cachets become a convenient documentation of the people, projects, and geographic places of interest for that year. Because the cachets are representative of USGS activities, each year's cachet is included as a digital facsimile in that year's Open-File Report. In the 1980s, multiple USGS cachets were prepared each year, one for use by the winter team at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station and the other for the project work areas of the austral summer field season programs.

Open-File Report

U.S. Geological Survey scientific activities in the exploration of Antarctica: 2002-03 field season

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mapping program in Antarctica is one of the longest continuously funded projects in the United States Antarctic Program (USAP). This is the 53rd U.S. expedition to Antarctica in which USGS scientists have participated. The financial support from the National Science Foundation, which extends back to the time of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1956–57, can be attributed to the need for accurate maps of specific field areas or regions where NSF-funded science projects were planned. The epoch of Antarctic exploration during the IGY was being driven by science, and, in a spirit of peaceful cooperation, the international scientific community wanted to limit military activities on the continent to logistical support. The USGS, a Federal civilian science agency in the Department of the Interior, had, since its founding in 1879, carried out numerous field-based national (and some international) programs in biology, geology, hydrology, and mapping. Therefore, the USGS was the obvious choice for these tasks, because it already had a professional staff of experienced mapmakers and program managers with the foresight, dedication, and understanding of the need for accurate maps to support the science programs in Antarctica when asked to do so by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Public Laws 85-743 and 87-626, signed in August 1958 and in September 1962, respectively, authorized the Secretary, U.S. Department of the Interior, through the USGS, to support mapping and scientific work in Antarctica. The USGS mapping and science programs still play a significant role in the advancement of science in Antarctica today. Antarctica is the planet's 5th largest continent [13.2 million km 2 (5.1 million mi 2 )], it contains the world's largest (of two) remaining ice sheets, and it is considered to be one of the most important scientific laboratories on Earth. This report provides documentation of USGS scientific activities in the exploration of Antarctica during the 2002–03 field season (Mullins, 2002).

Open-File Report

U.S. Geological Survey scientific activities in the exploration of Antarctica: 1995-96 field season

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mapping program in Antarctica is one of the longest continuously funded projects in the United States Antarctic Program (USAP). This is the 46th U.S. expedition to Antarctica in which USGS scientists have participated. The financial support from the National Science Foundation, which extends back to the time of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1956-57, can be attributed to the need for accurate maps of specific field areas or regions where NSF-funded science projects were planned. The epoch of Antarctic exploration during the IGY was being driven by science and, in a spirit of peaceful cooperation, the international scientific community wanted to limit military activities on the continent to logistical support. The USGS, a Federal civilian science agency in the Department of the Interior, had, since its founding in 1879, carried out numerous field-based national (and some international) programs in biology, geology, hydrology, and mapping. Therefore, the USGS was the obvious choice for these tasks, because it already had a professional staff of experienced mapmakers and program managers with the foresight, dedication, and understanding of the need for accurate maps to support the science programs in Antarctica when asked to do so by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Public Laws 85-743 and 87-626, signed in August 1958 and in September 1962, respectively, authorized the Secretary, U.S. Department of the Interior, through the USGS, to support mapping and scientific work in Antarctica. The USGS mapping and science programs still play a significant role in the advancement of science in Antarctica today. Antarctica is the planet's 5th largest continent (13.2 million km 2 (5.1 million mi 2 )), it contains the world's largest (of two) remaining ice sheet, and it is considered to be one of the most important scientific laboratories on Earth. This report provides documentation of USGS scientific activities in the exploration of Antarctica during the 1995-96 field season (Mullins and Meunier, 1995).

Open-File Report

Geographic Names of Iceland's Glaciers: Historic and Modern

Climatic changes and resulting glacier fluctuations alter landscapes. In the past, such changes were noted by local residents who often documented them in historic annals; eventually, glacier variations were recorded on maps and scientific reports. In Iceland, 10 glacier place-names are to be found in Icelandic sagas, and one of Iceland's ice caps, Snaefellsjokull, appeared on maps of Iceland published in the 16th century. In the late 17th century, the first description of eight of Iceland's glaciers was written. Therefore, Iceland distinguishes itself in having a more than 300-year history of observations by Icelanders on its glaciers. A long-term collaboration between Oddur Sigurdsson and Richard S. Williams, Jr., led to the authorship of three books on the glaciers of Iceland. Much effort has been devoted to documenting historical glacier research and related nomenclature and to physical descriptions of Icelandic glaciers by Icelanders and other scientists from as far back as the Saga Age to recent (2008) times. The first book, Icelandic Ice Mountains, was published by the Icelandic Literary Society in 2004 in cooperation with the Icelandic Glaciological Society and the International Glaciological Society. Icelandic Ice Mountains was a glacier treatise written by Sveinn Palsson in 1795 and is the first English translation of this important scientific document. Icelandic Ice Mountains includes a Preface, including a summary of the history and facsimiles of page(s) from the original manuscript, a handwritten copy, and an 1815 manuscript (without maps and drawings) by Sveinn Palsson on the same subject which he wrote for Rev. Ebenezer Henderson; an Editor's Introduction; 82 figures, including facsimiles of Sveinn Palsson's original maps and perspective drawings, maps, and photographs to illustrate the text; a comprehensive Index of Geographic Place-Names and Other Names in the treatise; References, and 415 Endnotes. Professional Paper 1746 (this book) is the second of the three books; it is being published in both English and Icelandic editions. This book provides information about all named glaciers in Iceland, historic and modern. Descriptions, with geographic coordinates, and bibliographic citations to all glacier place-names on published maps, books, and scientific articles are included. Maps, oblique aerial photographs, ground photographs, and satellite images document each of the 269 modern named glaciers of Iceland. The third book, Glaciers of Iceland, is Chapter D of the 11-chapter [volume] U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386-A-K. Chapter D includes a 1:500,000-scale Map of the Glaciers of Iceland; it is a comprehensive historical and modern review and assessment of what is currently known about glaciers in Iceland's eight Regional Glacier Groups from a review of the scientific literature and from analysis of maps and remotely sensed data (ground, airborne, and satellite); topics include geology and geography, climate and climate variability, types of glaciers, history of glacier variation (including the 21 surge-type glaciers), and frequency and magnitude of volcanic and lacustrine jokulhlaups.

Professional Paper

U.S. Geological Survey — Department of the Interior Region 11, Alaska—2019 annual science report

In keeping with our national mission, the USGS in Alaska provides timely and objective scientific information to help the Nation address issues and solve problems in five major topical areas (listed alphabetically): Energy and Minerals; Geospatial Mapping; Natural Hazards; Water Quality, Streamflow, and Ice Dynamics; and Wildlife, Fish, and Habitat. The USGS in Alaska engages about 400 scientists and support staff working in three major science centers, Cooperative Research Units, and USGS centers outside Alaska, with a combined annual science budget of about $60 million. In just the last 5 years, the USGS in Alaska has produced scientific benefits resulting from more than 1,000 publications and about 250 technical reports. Publications relevant to Alaska can be conveniently searched by keyword through the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/search?q=Alaska .

Alaska

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

Torne River, Lake Suwa

Historical ice jams and associated environmental conditions on Osoyoos Lake

Ice jams occur regularly at the southern outlet of Osoyoos Lake, which spans the border between the State of Washington and British Columbia, Canada. In recent winters, ice jams caused (1) decreases in downstream discharge that may adversely affect salmon spawning habitat and (2) short-duration lake-level rise that can interfere with lake level management agreements. In response, water managers sought to understand the environmental conditions associated with the historical ice-jam occurrences on Osoyoos Lake. Researchers compiled datasets of discharge, lake level, and air temperature from four meteorological and three hydrologic stations near Oroville, Washington, to determine “ice-jam” or “non-ice-jam” days from 1942 to 2024. After confirming known ice jams since 1994 using Landsat 8–9 and Sentinel–2 satellite imagery along with discharge, lake level, and air temperature data, researchers designated ice-jam days. They conducted statistical analyses to examine environmental conditions associated with ice-jam occurrences on Osoyoos Lake. Statistical tests indicated significant differences in wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature between ice-jam and non-ice-jam days. A linear discriminant-analysis model correctly predicted 12 of 13 historical ice-jam days since 1994 and determined that ice jams are more likely under westerly and northwesterly winds near or above 10 kilometers per hour (km/h) and minimum temperatures near or below –9.4 degrees Celsius (°C). An analysis of historical discharge suggests that ice jams have occurred since at least the 1940s, but 13 ice jam days occurred in the past decade (2014–2024), exceeding any previous decade. The daily minimum air temperature in the Osoyoos Lake region has increased at a rate of 0.021 °C per year since the 1940s, but ice jams usually occur in winters with colder average temperatures.

British Columbia, Washington

Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971 to 2017

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) (AMAP, 2017) identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003 to 2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in-situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 18 (> 55 °N latitude) glacier and ice cap mass balance series in the 1971 to 2017 period, we develop a semi-empirical estimate of annual sealevel contribution from seven Arctic regions by scaling the in-situ records to GRACE averages. We contend that our estimate represents the most accurate mass balance assessment so far available before the 1992 start of satellite altimetry. We estimate the 1971 to 2017 eustatic sea-level contribution from land ice north of ~55° N to be 23.0±12.3 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE). In all regions, the cumulative sealevel rise curves exhibit an acceleration, especially after 1988. Greenland is the source of 46% of the Arctic sea-level rise contribution (10.6±7.3 mm), followed by Alaska (5.7±2.2 mm), Arctic Canada (3.2±0.7 mm) and the Russian High Arctic (1.5±0.4 mm). Our annual results exhibit co-variability over a 43 year overlap (1971 to 2013) with the alternative dataset of Marzeion et al (2015) (M15). However, we find a 1.36x lower sea-level contribution, in agreement with satellite gravimetry. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report identified constraining the pre-satellite era sealevel budget as a topic of low scientific understanding that we address and specify sealevel contributions coinciding with IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) “present day” (2005-2015) and “recent past” (1986-2005) reference periods. We assess an Arctic land ice loss of 8.3 mm SLE during the recent past and 12.4 mm SLE during the present day.

Environmental Research Letters

Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 report

Gas hydrate is a naturally occurring “ice-like” combination of natural gas and water that has the potential to serve as an immense resource of natural gas from the world’s oceans and polar regions. However, gas-hydrate recovery is both a scientific and a technical challenge and much remains to be learned about the geologic, engineering, and economic factors controlling the ultimate energy resource potential of gas hydrate. The amount of natural gas contained in the world’s gas-hydrate accumulations is enormous, but these estimates are speculative and range over three orders of magnitude from about 2,800 to 8,000,000 trillion cubic meters of gas. By comparison, conventional natural gas accumulations (reserves and undiscovered, technically recoverable resources) for the world are estimated at approximately 440 trillion cubic meters. Gas recovery from gas hydrate is hindered because the gas is in a solid form and because gas hydrate commonly occurs in remote Arctic and deep marine environments. Proposed methods of gas recovery from gas hydrate generally deal with disassociating or “melting” in situ gas hydrate by heating the reservoir beyond the temperature of gas-hydrate formation, or decreasing the reservoir pressure below hydrate equilibrium. The pace of energy-related gas hydrate assessment projects has accelerated over the past several years. The Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 was designed to study the gas-hydrate occurrences off the Indian Peninsula and along the Andaman convergent margin with special emphasis on understanding the geologic and geochemical controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate in these two diverse settings. During Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01, dedicated gas-hydrate coring, drilling, and downhole logging operations were conducted from 28 April 2006 to 19 August 2006.

Krishna-Godivari Basin

Relation between Streamflow of Swiftcurrent Creek, Montana, and the Geometry of Passage for Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus)

Operation of Sherburne Dam in northcentral Montana has typically reduced winter streamflow in Swiftcurrent Creek downstream of the dam and resulted in passage limitations for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). We defined an empirical relation between discharge in Swiftcurrent Creek between Sherburne Dam and the downstream confluence with Boulder Creek and fish passage geometry by considering how the cross-sectional area of water changed as a function of discharge at a set of cross sections likely to limit fish passage. With a minimum passage window of 15 x 45 cm, passage at the cross sections increased strongly with discharge over the range of 1.2 to 24 cfs. Most cross sections did not satisfy the minimum criteria at 1.2 cfs, 25 percent had no passage at 12.7 cfs, whereas at 24 cfs all but one of 26 cross sections had some passage and 90 percent had more than 3 m of width satisfying the minimum criteria. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the overall results are not highly dependent on exact dimensions of the minimum passage window. Combining these results with estimates of natural streamflow in the study reach further suggests that natural streamflow provided adequate passage at some times in most months and locations in the study reach, although not for all individual days and locations. Limitations of our analysis include assumptions about minimum passage geometry, measurement error, limitations of the cross-sectional model we used to characterize passage, the relation of Sherburne Dam releases to streamflow in the downstream study reach in the presence of ephemeral accretions, and the relation of passage geometry as we have measured it to fish responses of movement, stranding, and mortality, especially in the presence of ice cover.

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluation of the Acoustic Doppler Velocity Meter for Computation of Discharge Records at Three Sites in Colorado, 2004-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted a study in 2004-2005 at three sites in Colorado: Bear Creek at Morrison, Clear Creek near Empire, and Redlands Canal near Grand Junction. The study was done to evaluate acoustic Doppler velocity meter (ADVM) technology in different hydrologic settings that are characteristic of many Colorado streamflow-gaging sites. ADVMs have been tested and used extensively in many parts of the United States by USGS but not in Colorado where relatively small, shallow, clear, coarse-bed streams that ice up in the winter may affect the ADVM suitability. In this study, ADVM instrumentation was successfully used and discharge computations compared favorably, generally within 5 to 10 percent, with conventional USGS stage/discharge methods at the three Colorado sites. However, two factors, encountered in this study, may adversely affect the use of ADVM technology in Colorado. First, for some streams, the depth required (about 1.5 feet for a side-looking instrument) cannot be met during low-flow periods of the year. Second, cold temperatures and freezing-thawing cycles can produce ice effects that could prevent collection of usable ADVM (and stage) data.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrogeology of sand and gravel aquifers in the Owasco Inlet watershed, Cayuga and Tompkins Counties, New York

This study is a continuation of a series of hydrogeologic appraisals that have been conducted since 1980, as part of a cooperative, long-term, detailed aquifer mapping program by the U.S. Geological Survey and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. These appraisals provide a foundation for wellhead protection programs, water-resource management and planning decisions, and groundwater remediation in upstate New York. The Owasco Inlet watershed drains north directly to Owasco Lake, one of New York’s Finger Lakes. The watershed is similar in form to other watersheds of the Finger Lakes region of New York State and is characterized by broad, smooth uplands punctuated by the 18-mile-long Owasco Inlet valley and the secondary valleys of Decker, Dresserville, and Hemlock Creeks. All these streams occupy “through valleys”—the valleys are continuous into adjacent watersheds such that watershed divides are high points within the valley bottoms, rather than in uplands. Most glacial deposits in the watershed were deposited during the Valley Heads Readvance and subsequent retreat (with at least one minor readvance). Estimates are that the Valley Heads Readvance likely peaked in the Cayuga basin about 17,000 (calendar) years ago based on dates from western New York and the Mohawk Valley in east-central New York. It was the last major ice advance of the Pleistocene Epoch in this region. This readvance covered the entire Owasco watershed. Valley Heads ice in the Owasco watershed was part of the Cayuga ice lobe, which flowed parallel to the Owasco Inlet valley as far south as Moravia, but which became progressively more eastward south of Locke, effectively raking across the valley from the west. The Owasco Inlet watershed drains north, like other Finger Lakes watersheds, and during deglaciation, northward meltwater drainage was largely blocked by the ice, which resulted in development of a series of regional proglacial lakes in which fine lacustrine sediments predominated. Lacustrine sediments constitute much of the Owasco Inlet valley fill, but it has been pointed out that there are no obvious outlet channels exiting the Owasco Inlet watershed, and it has been proposed that there was northward drainage of meltwater into the ice within the larger, neighboring Cayuga Trough. The lacustrine deposits in the Owasco Inlet valley are commonly underlain by thinner coarse-grained stratified deposits (subaqueous fans and eskers) of variable sorting and permeability. An exception occurs at Groton, N.Y., where retreating ice paused long enough for coarse-grained sediments to fill much of the valley. Smaller, higher elevation valleys have a wider variety of glacial valley-fill deposits, ranging from fine lacustrine sediments to sand and gravel to till. Groundwater is the sole source of water supply in the area; glacial sand and gravel aquifers are the primary water source in the Owasco Inlet and Decker Creek valleys, and fractured bedrock aquifers typically supply domestic wells in the remaining valleys and upland areas. Municipal supplies tap a variety of aquifer types in the Owasco Inlet valley and nearby uplands. The hamlet of Locke taps the extensive confined aquifer beneath fine-grained lacustrine deposits in the valley. The Village of Moravia taps a semiconfined aquifer that overlies proglacial lake deposits and is partly confined by overlying recent lake deposits and alluvium. Withdrawals from this aquifer may also induce water from the Owasco Inlet into the aquifer. The Village of Groton draws from two aquifers: (1) a thin upland unconfined sand and gravel aquifer tapped by an infiltration gallery and (2) the local unconfined or semiconfined aquifer in the Owasco Inlet valley. Another aquifer with potential for municipal supply is the unconfined aquifer in the Decker Creek valley near Wilson Corners. The confined aquifer in the lower Dresserville Creek valley may have some water-resource potential, but it is largely untested. Unconfined aquifers are the most susceptible to contamination from activities at land surface directly above the aquifer because precipitation and subsequent recharge can transport contaminants directly to the water table. Adjacent upland areas can also contribute contaminants. Confined aquifers are less susceptible to contamination from overlying land surface areas because confining units largely prevent downward movement of water. Recharge occurs elsewhere at unconfined upvalley locations and along valley walls where alluvial fans, ice-contact deposits, or stream incision into the valley wall may provide pathways for downward movement of groundwater.

New York

Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet). Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads. In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years. A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly generated future duration of the current wet period. On the basis of the simulations, and assuming ice-free conditions and calm wind, the Devils Lake flood elevation for an annualized flood risk of 1 percent (analogous to a “100-year” riverine flood) was estimated to be 1,454.6 feet for a 10-year time horizon (2008­­­–17). Therefore, without adjusting for wind or ice, a residence near Devils Lake at elevation 1,454.6 feet has the same chance of being flooded sometime during the next 10 years as a residence at the edge of the 100-year flood plain along a river. Adjusting for the effects of wind or ice, which will increase the flood elevations for many locations near the lakes, was not within the scope of this study.

North Dakota

Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea

Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), 2008–2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71–0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71–2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46–1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86–0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83–0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km 2 (95% CRI = 0.0016–0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552–5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change.

Scientific Reports

U.S. Geological Survey—Department of the Interior, Region 11, Alaska—2023–24 biennial science report

Introduction U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mission—The USGS national mission is to monitor, analyze, and predict the current and evolving dynamics of complex human and natural Earth-system interactions and to deliver actionable information at scales and timeframes relevant to decision makers. Consistent with the national mission, the USGS in Alaska provides timely and objective scientific information to help address issues and inform management decisions across five interconnected focus areas: Energy and Minerals; Geospatial Mapping; Natural Hazards; Water Quality, Streamflow, and Ice Dynamics; and Ecosystems. The USGS in Alaska consists of approximately 350 scientists and support staff working in 3 Alaska-based science centers. USGS science activities are also initiated by the Cooperative Research Unit and USGS centers outside Alaska. In the last 5 years, USGS research in Alaska has produced many scientific benefits resulting from more than 900 publications. Publications relevant to Alaska can be conveniently searched by keyword through the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.usgs.gov/.

Alaska