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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all) anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2012

Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands

The Global Change Ecology and Wetlands book series will highlight the latest research from the world leaders in the field of climate change in wetlands. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands highlights information of importance to wetland ecologists. The chapters include syntheses of international studies on the effects of drought on function and regeneration in wetlands, sea level rise and the distribution of mangrove swamps, former distributions of swamp species and future lessons from paleoecology, and shifts in atmospheric emissions across geographical regions in wetlands. Overall, the book will contribute to a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change on world wetland distribution and function.

Book↗
USGS2021

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)—the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change—is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species’ AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species’ attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species’ AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species’ innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species’ AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2004

Ecological response to global climatic change

Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2025

Spatial regimes provide ample early warning of tipping points

Accelerating global change is a hallmark of the Anthropocene, and the interaction of rapid change in climate, land use and land cover makes understanding the response of social-ecological systems to global change difficult to predict. Global change directly and indirectly affects both social-ecological systems and the landscapes in which they are embedded. Spatial heterogeneity in the location, manifestation of, and responses to global change makes spatially explicit approaches to management and conservation necessary. Spatial regimes, a concept derived from resilience theory, are at the forefront of attempts to operationalize and quantify resilience of dynamic landscapes. Spatial regimes are defined as dynamic landscape units that are shaped by a self-organizing set of processes and structures. They have identifiable spatial extents with discrete boundaries at a given scale that exhibit relative homogeneity in process, structure and composition maintained by feedback mechanisms. Here, we describe the concept of, evidence for, and applications of spatial regimes and how spatial regimes relate to scale and telecoupling of change across social-ecological systems. We emphasize the utility of the concept as an early warning of regime change, one that can provide ample early warning. We discuss methods that can be used to detect spatial regimes and uses of the concept for understanding and managing the spatio-temporal response of social-ecological systems to global change.

Advances in Ecological Research↗
USGS2017

Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements

In light of global climate change, ecological studies increasingly address effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. Sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but our review of 18 years of ecological literature indicates that shielding practices vary across studies (when reported at all), and that ecologists often invent and construct ad hoc radiation shields without testing their efficacy. We performed two field experiments to examine the accuracy of temperature observations from three commonly used portable data loggers (HOBO Pro, HOBO Pendant, and iButton hygrochron) housed in manufactured Gill shields or ad hoc, custom‐fabricated shields constructed from everyday materials such as plastic cups. We installed this sensor array (five replicates of 11 sensor‐shield combinations) at weather stations located in open and forested sites. HOBO Pro sensors with Gill shields were the most accurate devices, with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C relative to weather stations at each site. Error in ad hoc shield treatments ranged from 0.8 to 3.0°C, with the largest errors at the open site. We then deployed one replicate of each sensor‐shield combination at five sites that varied in the amount of urban impervious surface cover, which presents a further shielding challenge. Bias in sensors paired with ad hoc shields increased by up to 0.7°C for every 10% increase in impervious surface. Our results indicate that, due to variable shielding practices, the ecological literature likely includes highly biased temperature data that cannot be compared directly across studies. If left unaddressed, these errors will hinder efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. We call for greater standardization in how temperature data are recorded in the field, handled in analyses, and reported in publications.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Management foundations for navigating ecological transformation by resisting, accepting, or directing social-ecological change

Despite striking global change, management to ensure healthy landscapes and sustained natural resources has tended to set objectives on the basis of the historical range of variability in stationary ecosystems. Many social–ecological systems are moving into novel conditions that can result in ecological transformation. We present four foundations to enable a transition to future-oriented conservation and management that increases capacity to manage change. The foundations are to identify plausible social–ecological trajectories, to apply upstream and deliberate engagement and decision-making with stakeholders, to formulate management pathways to desired futures, and to consider a portfolio approach to manage risk and account for multiple preferences across space and time. We use the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska as a case study to illustrate how the four foundations address common land management challenges for navigating transformation and deciding when, where, and how to resist, accept, or direct social–ecological change.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

Nebraska↗
USGS2018

Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

Ambio↗
USGS2017

Biocrust ecology: Unifying micro- and macro-scales to confront global change

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are communities of microbes, lichens and bryophytes living at the soil surface in drylands (Fig. 1; Belnap et al ., 2016). Biocrusts occur on all continents and can comprise a majority of cover in some systems (Belnap et al ., 2016). While species diversity and distributions have long been a research focus, interest in controls on community composition and cover has expanded as biocrusts are increasingly recognized for their roles in ecosystem functioning (Deane-Coe and Stanton, 2017). For example, biocrust organisms can stabilize soils (Belnap et al ., 2016; Faist et al ., 2017), fix atmospheric carbon (C) (Sancho et al ., 2016), and serve as the foremost source of ‘new’ soil nitrogen (N) in drylands, via N 2 fixation (Barger et al ., 2016) These contributions to gross primary production and soil fertility could be quite large, as high-end estimates suggest biocrusts and similar communities of bryophytes and lichens might account for 10% of terrestrial C- and 50% of N-fixation globally (Elbert et al ., 2012). Yet verifying these and other biocrust roles in ecosystem functioning is complicated by limited knowledge of biocrust cover and composition across the vast dryland biome (Ferrenberg et al ., 2017). It was against this backdrop that ‘Biocrust3: the 3 rd International workshop on biological soil crusts’ was held in Moab, UT, USA, on 26-30 September 2016. The workshop brought together over 50 scientists from 21 countries and six continents, and included numerous biocrust science pioneers (Fig. 2). The meeting was notable for its cross-scale focus, discussion of novel molecular and imaging techniques, and sessions on mapping and restoring biocrusts in a changing world. Here, we synthesize a central theme that emerged from Biocrust3, namely the potential for combining cutting edge tools with studies focused on organismal traits, ecosystem functions, and global change biology to advance the frontier of biocrust ecology.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2020

The role of warm, dry summers and variation in snowpack on phytoplankton dynamics in high-elevation lakes

Abstract Climate change is altering biogeochemical, metabolic, and ecological functions in lakes across the globe. Historically, mountain lakes in temperate regions have been unproductive due to brief ice-free seasons, a snowmelt-driven hydrograph, cold temperatures, and steep topography with low vegetation and soil cover. We tested the relative importance of winter and summer weather, watershed characteristics, and water chemistry as drivers of phytoplankton dynamics. Using boosted regression tree models for 28 mountain lakes in Colorado we examined regional, intra-seasonal, and inter-annual drivers of variability in chlorophyll a as a proxy for lake phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biomass was inversely related to the maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) of the previous winter, as others have found. However, even in years with average SWE, summer precipitation extremes and warming enhanced phytoplankton biomass. Peak seasonal phytoplankton biomass coincided with the warmest water temperatures and lowest nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios. While links between snowpack, lake temperature, nutrients, and organic matter dynamics are increasingly recognized as critical drivers of change in high elevation lakes, our results highlight the additional influence of summer conditions on lake productivity in response to ongoing changes in climate. Continued changes in the timing, type, and magnitude of precipitation in combination with other global change drivers (e.g., nutrient deposition) will affect production in mountain lakes, potentially shifting these historically oligotrophic lakes toward new ecosystem states. Ultimately, a deeper understanding of these drivers and pattern at multiple scales will allow us to better anticipate ecological consequences of global change.

Colorado↗
USGS2016

Quantifying resilience

The biosphere is under unprecedented pressure, reflected in rapid changes in our global ecological, social, technological and economic systems. In many cases, ecological and social systems can adapt to these changes over time, but when a critical threshold is surpassed, a system under stress can undergo catastrophic change and reorganize into a different state. The concept of resilience, introduced more than 40 years ago in the ecological sciences, captures the behaviour of systems that can occur in alternative states. The original definition of resilience forwarded by Holling ( 1973 ) is still the most useful. It defines resilience as the amount of disturbance that a system can withstand before it shifts into an alternative stable state. The idea of alternative stable states has clear and profound implications for ecological management. Coral reefs, for example, are high-diversity systems that provide key ecosystem services such as fisheries and coastal protection. Human impacts are causing significant, ongoing reef degradation, and many reefs have shifted from coral- to algal-dominated states in response to anthropogenic pressures such as elevated water temperatures and overfishing. Understanding and differentiating between the factors that help maintain reefs in coral-dominated states vs. those that facilitate a shift to an undesired algal-dominated state is a critical step towards sound management and conservation of these, and other, important social–ecological systems. Resilience has gained popularity among both academicians and laypeople, as a term meant to describe a systems’ ability to withstand disturbance. Resilience has become a buzzword in the last decade, as shown by its increasing appearance in calls for research proposals and scientific citation data bases. The term resilience has in many cases lost the clarity of the original definition and in fact is frequently used in a manner in direct opposition to the original definition. Many current uses of the concept are loose and incorrect. The term is becoming increasingly used in a normative sense (Brand & Jax 2007 ), as if resilience were a desirable quality of systems. However, even systems in highly undesirable states, such as macro-algae dominated reefs, or city cores in poverty traps, may be highly resilient, which is to say they withstand attempts to transform them into different (desirable) states. Operationalizing the concept of resilience for application and management has been difficult. Misuse of the term can have significant negative impacts, because resilience is being used to help guide responses to natural disasters and to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and urban systems and has been driving international research priorities. Resilience has been argued to be a basic emergent property of systems, a process or a rate. We focus on the original concept as described by Holling, which is that of an emergent system property; when a system is in a desirable state and managers wish to enhance resilience, or when the system is in an undesirable state and managers wish to erode resilience and foster a transformation to an alternative state. Fostering or eroding resilience is a process. When a system is perturbed but resilience is not exceeded, then the recovery can be measured as a rate. Several frameworks to operationalize resilience have been proposed. A decade ago, a special feature focused on quantifying resilience was published in the journal Ecosystems (Carpenter, Westley & Turner 2005 ). The approach there was towards identifying surrogates of resilience, but few of the papers proposed quantifiable metrics. Consequently, many ecological resilience frameworks remain vague and difficult to quantify, a problem that this special feature aims to address. However, considerable progress has been made during the last decade (e.g. Pope, Allen & Angeler 2014 ). Although some argue that resilience is best kept as an unquantifiable, vague concept (Quinlan et al . 2016 ), to be useful for managers, there must be concrete guidance regarding how and what to manage and how to measure success (Garmestani, Allen & Benson 2013 ; Spears et al . 2015 ). Ideas such as ‘resilience thinking’ have utility in helping stakeholders conceptualize their systems, but provide little guidance on how to make resilience useful for ecosystem management, other than suggesting an ambiguous, Goldilocks approach of being just right (e.g. diverse, but not too diverse; connected, but not too connected). Here, we clarify some prominent resilience terms and concepts, introduce and synthesize the papers in this special feature on quantifying resilience and identify core unanswered questions related to resilience.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2022

Global groundwater solute composition and concentrations

Informed analysis of policies related to food security, global climate change, wetland ecology, environmental nutrient flux, element cycling, groundwater weathering, continental denudation, human health, etc. depends to a large extent on quantitative estimates of solute mass fluxes into and out of all global element pools including the enigmatic global aquifer systems. Herein for the first time, we proffer the mean global solute concentration of all major and selected minor and trace solutes in the active groundwater that represents 99% of liquid fresh water on Earth. Concentrations in this significant element pool have yielded to a geospatial machine learning kNN-nearest neighbors’ algorithm with numerous geospatial predictors utilizing a large new lithology/climate/aquifer age/elevation based solute database. The predicted concentrations are consistent with traditional solute ratios, concentrations, and thermodynamic saturation indices.

Groundwater↗
USGS2015

Scale dependence of disease impacts on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality in the southwestern United States

Depending on how disease impacts tree exposure to risk, both the prevalence of disease and disease effects on survival may contribute to patterns of mortality risk across a species' range. Disease may accelerate tree species' declines in response to global change factors, such as drought, biotic interactions, such as competition, or functional traits, such as allometry. To assess the role of disease in mediating mortality risk in quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides ), we developed hierarchical Bayesian models for both disease prevalence in live aspen stems and the resulting survival rates of healthy and diseased aspen near the species' southern range limit using 5088 individual trees on 281 United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plots in the southwestern United States. We found that disease prevalence depended primarily on tree size, tree allometry, and spatial variation in precipitation, while mortality depended on tree size, allometry, competition, spatial variation in summer temperature, and both temporal and spatial variation in summer precipitation. Disease prevalence was highest in large trees with low slenderness found on dry sites. For healthy trees, mortality decreased with diameter, slenderness, and temporal variation in summer precipitation, but increased with competition and spatial variation in summer temperature. Mortality of diseased trees decreased with diameter and aspen relative basal area and increased with mean summer temperature and precipitation. Disease infection increased aspen mortality, especially in trees of intermediate size and trees on plots at climatic extremes (i.e., cool, wet and warm, dry climates). By examining variation in disease prevalence, mortality of healthy trees, and mortality of diseased trees, we showed that the role of disease in aspen tree mortality depended on the scale of inference. For variation among individuals in diameter, disease tended to expose intermediate-size trees experiencing moderate risk to greater risk. For spatial variation in summer temperature, disease exposed lower risk populations to greater mortality probabilities, but the magnitude of this exposure depended on summer precipitation. Furthermore, the importance of diameter and slenderness in mediating responses to climate supports the increasing emphasis on trait variation in studies of ecological responses to global change.

Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics↗
USGS2026

Loss and transformation of coastal wetlands due to global change in the conterminous United States: Past, present, and future

Coastal wetlands are being transformed by global change, impacting the ecological and societal benefits provided by these ecosystems. Synthesizing knowledge of historical and expected future transformations in coastal wetlands can help inform forward-looking planning and stewardship efforts. Here, we review anticipated future ecological transformations in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States and contrast them with past transformations. We examine trends at the national scale but focus in detail on the following six wetland-rich regions: (1) Everglades, (2) Mississippi River delta, (3) Chesapeake Bay, (4) San Francisco Estuary, (5) Puget Sound, and (6) Great Lakes. This review is among the first to integrate and compare coastal wetland transformations in the Great Lakes with their oceanic counterparts. Between 1850 and 1970, wetland losses across the nation were high because coastal wetlands were viewed as flooded wastelands needing to be drained, filled, or excavated to make room for other land uses. Over the last 50 years, growing public and scientific appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits provided by coastal wetlands has fostered tremendous gains in wetland restoration and legal protection. Looking to the future, climate change and accelerated sea-level rise have become critical threats to coastal wetlands and are emerging as major drivers of ecological loss and transformation. This review synthesizes regional knowledge regarding past, present, and future changes to help coastal scientists, environmental managers, and the public better anticipate and prepare for future coastal wetland transformations due to climate change, accelerated sea-level rise, land-use change, and other aspects of global change.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2020

Editorial: Plant-soil interactions under changing climate

The health and well-being of plants and soil is crucial for all life on Earth. It is well-known that vegetation cover follows climatic zones, and plants respond to climatic drivers such as temperature and precipitation (Seddon et al., 2016; Kattge et al., 2020). It is also well-known that plant health depends on the properties and health of the soil (Ephrath et al., 2020), and that strong interactions among biota above and belowground dictate the functioning of both realms (Van der Putten et al., 2013). Yet, soils and the processes occurring belowground are often considered a “black box,” and are treated very simplistically in our efforts to understand, quantify, and model the future of the planet. Our understanding of the interactions between plants and soils is also far from complete and offers some of the most important research frontiers in community ecology, biogeochemistry, and global change science.

Frontiers in Plant Science↗
USGS2025

When the wild things are: Defining mammalian diel activity and plasticity

Circadian rhythms are a mechanism by which species adapt to environmental variability and fundamental to understanding species behavior. However, we lack data and a standardized framework to accurately assess and compare temporal activity for species during rapid ecological change. Through a global network representing 38 countries, we leveraged 8.9 million mammalian observations to create a library of 14,587 standardized diel activity estimates for 445 species. We found that less than half the species’ estimates were in agreement with diel classifications from the reference literature and that species commonly used more than one diel classification. Species diel activity was highly plastic when exposed to anthropogenic change. Furthermore, body size and distributional extent were strongly associated with whether a species is diurnal or nocturnal. Our findings provide essential knowledge of species behavior in an era of rapid global change and suggest the need for a new, quantitative framework that defines diel activity logically and consistently while capturing species plasticity.

Science Advances↗