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Results for “Frontiers in Earth Science: Atmospheric Science”

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16 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2018

The Polar WRF downscaled historical and projected twenty-first century climate for the coast and foothills of Arctic Alaska

Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950–2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Impacts of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns on the south-central United States

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural and other economic sectors including the potential for substantial wind and solar energy generation. Whereas a need exists to understand atmospheric variability due to the cascading impacts through ecological and social systems, our understanding is complicated by the positioning of the SCUSA between subtropical and extratropical circulation features and the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Variability (PDO/PDV) have been shown to be important modulators of temperature and precipitation variables at the monthly, seasonal, and interannual scales, and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the SCUSA. By reviewing these teleconnection impacts in the region alongside updated seasonal correlation maps, this research provides more accessible and comparable results for interdisciplinary use on climate impacts beyond the atmospheric-environmental sciences.

Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2016

Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

The northern portion of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) is one of the least anthropogenically modified regions on earth and remains in many respects a frontier area to science. Rivers crossing the northern PCTR, which is also an international boundary region between British Columbia, Canada and Alaska, USA, deliver large freshwater and biogeochemical fluxes to the Gulf of Alaska and establish linkages between coastal and continental ecosystems. We evaluate interannual flow variability in three transboundary PCTR watersheds in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Historical hydroclimatic datasets from both Canada and the USA are analyzed using an up-to-date methodological suite accommodating both seasonally transient and highly nonlinear teleconnections. We find that streamflow teleconnections occur over particular seasonal windows reflecting the intersection of specific atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic processes. The strongest signal is a snowmelt-driven flow timing shift resulting from ENSO- and PDO-associated temperature anomalies. Autumn rainfall runoff is also modulated by these climate modes, and a glacier-mediated teleconnection contributes to a late-summer ENSO-flow association. Teleconnections between AO and freshet flows reflect corresponding temperature and precipitation anomalies. A coherent NPGO signal is not clearly evident in streamflow. Linear and monotonically nonlinear teleconnections were widely identified, with less evidence for the parabolic effects that can play an important role elsewhere. The streamflow teleconnections did not vary greatly between hydrometric stations, presumably reflecting broad similarities in watershed characteristics. These results establish a regional foundation for both transboundary water management and studies of long-term hydroclimatic and environmental change.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2013

Introduction to the special issue on ‘Frontiers in gas geochemistry’

The study of the geochemistry of gases pervades the Earth and Environmental Sciences. This is due in no small measure to the well-established thermodynamic properties of gases which allow their application to a variety of processes occurring over a wide spectrum of natural conditions. In this respect, both major and associated minor gases have been proven useful: indeed, the trace gases have been particularly important given their role as sensitive geochemical tracers. Examples where gas geochemistry places key constraints on geochemical processes include the degassing history of the solid Earth to form the atmosphere and oceans, the origin and migration characteristics of hydrocarbon deposits, the scale of climate variability, the P–T characteristics of geothermal reservoirs, and the dynamics of the earthquake cycle and volcanic activity, to name but a few. This volume continues this rich tradition with an eclectic selection of papers aimed at exploring and exploiting gas geochemistry over a myriad set of research themes.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2019

Holocene thermokarst lake dynamics in northern Interior Alaska: The interplay of climate, fire, and subsurface hydrology

The current state of permafrost in Alaska and meaningful expectations for its future evolution are informed by long-term perspectives of previous permafrost degradation. Thermokarst processes in permafrost landscapes often lead to widespread lake formation and the spatial and temporal evolution of thermokarst lake landscapes reflects the combined effects of climate, ground conditions, vegetation, and fire. This study provides detailed analyses of thermokarst lake sediments of Holocene age from the southern loess uplands of the Yukon Flats; including bathymetry and sediment core analyses across a water depth transect. The sediment core results, dated by radiocarbon and 210Pb, indicate the onset of finely laminated lacustrine sedimentation between ~10,000 and 9,000 cal yr BP following basin development through inferred thermokarst processes. Thermokarst expansion to modern shoreline configurations continued until ~5000 cal yr BP, which may have been influenced by increased fire. Between ~5000 and 2000 cal yr BP, the preservation of fine laminations at intermediate and deep-water depths indicate higher lake levels than present. At that time, the lake likely overflowed into an over-deepened gully system that is no longer occupied by perennial streams. By ~2000 cal yr BP, massive sedimentation at intermediate water depths indicates that lake levels lowered, which is interpreted to reflect a response to drier conditions based on correspondence with Yukon Flats regional fire and local paleoclimate reconstructions. Consideration of additional contributing mechanisms include the possible influence of catastrophic lake drainages on downgradient base flow levels that may have enhanced subsurface water loss, although this mechanism is untested. The overall consistency between the millennial lake level trends documented here with regional paleoclimate trends indicates that after lakes formed, their size and depth has likely been affected directly by North Pacific atmospheric circulation changes and indirectly through evolution of permafrost, ground ice and sub-surface hydrology. As the first detailed study of Holocene thermokarst basin expansion, stabilization and subsequent climate-driven lake level variations in a loess upland, results provide a framework for future investigations of paleoclimatic signals from similar lake systems that characterize large regions of Alaska and Siberia.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

Report↗
USGS2023

Viewing river corridors through the lens of critical zone science

River corridors integrate the active channels, geomorphic floodplain and riparian areas, and hyporheic zone while receiving inputs from the uplands and groundwater and exchanging mass and energy with the atmosphere. Here, we trace the development of the contemporary understanding of river corridors from the perspectives of geomorphology, hydrology, ecology, and biogeochemistry. We then summarize contemporary models of the river corridor along multiple axes including dimensions of space and time, disturbance regimes, connectivity, hydrochemical exchange flows, and legacy effects of humans. We explore how river corridor science can be advanced with a critical zone framework by moving beyond a primary focus on discharge-based controls toward multi-factor models that identify dominant processes and thresholds that make predictions that serve society. We then identify opportunities to investigate relationships between large-scale spatial gradients and local-scale processes, embrace that riverine processes are temporally variable and interacting, acknowledge that river corridor processes and services do not respect disciplinary boundaries and increasingly need integrated multidisciplinary investigations, and explicitly integrate humans and their management actions as part of the river corridor. We intend our review to stimulate cross-disciplinary research while recognizing that river corridors occupy a unique position on the Earth's surface.

Frontiers in Water↗
USGS2023

Editorial: Remote sensing of volcanic gas emissions from the ground, air, and space

When magma rises in volcanic systems, volatile species exsolve from the melt and are outgassed to the atmosphere. The melt composition and temperature, depth at which degassing occurs, extent of gas-water-rock interactions, and volume of ascending magma are all factors that determine the composition and rate of gas emissions at the surface. Interpreted in a petrological framework, gas measurements thus provide information on these fundamental parameters of volcanic systems. Volcanic gases have traditionally been sampled in the field and later analyzed with standard laboratory methods, but remote sensing measurements are playing an increasingly central role in characterizing emissions and the volcanoes from which they originate. The 17 contributions in this Research Topic summarize the state-of-the-art in volcanic gas remote sensing and identify key areas in which the field could further improve our understanding of global volcanism and its impact on Earth’s environment in the next decade.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2026

Pliocene (Piacenzian) planktic foraminiferal biogeography: Insights into how planktic biogeography is linked to climate and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems

The Piacenzian Age (3.60–2.58 Ma) of the Pliocene Epoch was characterized by globally warmer climates, higher sea levels, and atmospheric CO 2 similar to present. Utilizing a robust dataset of 2,101 samples and over 637,000 foraminifer specimens from 77 deep-sea core sites worldwide, we document planktic foraminifer biogeography and biodiversity during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP). Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling reveal five major bioregions: tropical, warm subtropical, transitional, polar, and a distinct North Atlantic polar bioregion. Each bioregion was dominated by characteristic species with well-established temperature preferences. Analyses demonstrate higher species richness and evenness in low and mid-latitudes, with increased diversity associated with periods of climatic warming and poleward expansion of warm water assemblages. The long-term stability of biogeographic patterns underscores ecological conservatism but also highlights potential vulnerability to rapid anthropogenic climate change. Our findings emphasize the critical role of planktic foraminifers in reconstructing past ocean conditions and offer valuable insights into links between planktic biogeography, climate, and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems. This work advances our understanding of marine ecosystem responses to climate extremes and provides a foundation for future regional and temporal analyses of planktic foraminifer biogeography under global change scenarios.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2018

Airborne bacteria in Earth’s lower stratosphere resemble taxa detected in the troposphere: results from a new NASA aircraft bioaerosol collector (ABC)

Airborne microorganisms in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere remain elusive due to a lack of reliable sample collection systems. To address this problem, we designed, installed, and flight-validated a novel Aircraft Bioaerosol Collector (ABC) for NASA's C-20A that can make collections for microbiological research investigations up to altitudes of 13.7 km. Herein we report results from the first set of science flights—four consecutive missions flown over the United States (US) from 30 October to 2 November, 2017. To ascertain how the concentration of airborne bacteria changed across the tropopause, we collected air during aircraft Ascent / Descent (0.3 to 11 km), as well as sustained Cruise altitudes in the lower stratosphere (~12 km). Bioaerosols were captured on DNA-treated gelatinous filters inside a cascade air sampler, then analyzed with molecular and culture-based characterization. Several viable bacterial isolates were recovered from flight altitudes, including Bacillus sp., Micrococcus sp., Arthrobacter sp., and Staphylococcus sp. from Cruise samples and Brachybacterium sp. from Ascent/Descent samples. Using 16S V4 sequencing methods for a culture-independent analysis of bacteria, the average number of total OTUs was 305 for Cruise samples and 276 for Ascent/Descent samples. Some taxa were more abundant in the flight samples than the ground samples, including OTUs from families Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcaceae and Erysipelotrichaceae as well as the following genera: Clostridium, Mogibacterium, Corynebacterium, Bacteroides, Prevotella, Pseudomonas , and Parabacteroides . Surprisingly, our results revealed a homogeneous distribution of bacteria in the atmosphere up to 12 km. The observation could be due to atmospheric conditions producing similar background aerosols across the western US, as suggested by modeled back trajectories and satellite measurements. However, the influence of aircraft-associated bacterial contaminants could not be fully eliminated and that background signal was reported throughout our dataset. Considering the tremendous engineering challenge of collecting biomass at extreme altitudes where contamination from flight hardware remains an ever-present issue, we note the utility of using the stratosphere as a proving ground for planned life detection missions across the solar system.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2021

Rapid-response unsaturated zone hydrology: Small-scale data, small-scale theory, big problems

The unsaturated zone (UZ) extends across the Earth’s terrestrial surface and is central to many problems related to land and water resource management. Flow of water through the UZ is typically thought to be slow and diffusive, such that it could attenuate fluxes and dampen variability between atmospheric inputs and underlying aquifer systems. This would reduce water resource vulnerability to contaminants and water-related hazards. Reducing or negating that effect, however, spatially concentrated and rapid flow and transport through the unsaturated zone is surprisingly common and becoming more so with the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme hydroclimatic events. Arising from the wide range in the rates and complex modes of nonlinear flow processes, these effects are among the most poorly characterized hydrologic phenomena. Issues of scale present additional difficulties. Equations representing unsaturated processes have been developed and tested on the basis of field and laboratory measurements typically made at scales from pore size to plot size. In contrast, related problems of significant interest to society, including floods, aquifer recharge, landslides, and groundwater contamination, range from watershed to regional scales. The disparity between the scale of our understanding and the scale of interest for societal problems has spurred application of these model equations at increasingly coarse resolutions over larger areas than can be justified by existing measurements or theory. This mismatch in scales requires an assumption that spatially averaging slow diffusive flow and rapid preferential flow can effectively represent the influence of both processes across vast areas. Given the currently inadequate recognition and quantitative characterization of focused and rapid processes in unsaturated flow, these phenomena are critically in need of expanded attention and effort.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2021

Evaluation of remote mapping techniques for earthquake-triggered landslide inventories in an urban subarctic environment: A case study of the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska Earthquake

Earthquake-induced landslide inventories can be generated using field observations but doing so can be challenging if the affected landscape is large or inaccessible after an earthquake. Remote sensing data can be used to help overcome these limitations. The effectiveness of remotely sensed data to produce landslide inventories, however, is dependent on a variety of factors, such as the extent of coverage, timing, and data quality, as well as environmental factors such as atmospheric interference (e.g., clouds, water vapor) or snow and vegetation cover. With these challenges in mind, we use a combination of field observations and remote sensing data from multispectral, light detection and ranging (lidar), and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors to produce a ground failure inventory for the urban areas affected by the 2018 magnitude (M w ) 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska earthquake. The earthquake occurred during late November at high latitude (∼61°N), and the lack of sunlight, persistent cloud cover, and snow cover that occurred after the earthquake made remote mapping challenging for this event. Despite these challenges, 43 landslides were manually mapped and classified using a combination of the datasets mentioned previously. Using this manually compiled inventory, we investigate the individual performance and reliability of three remote sensing techniques in this environment not typically hospitable to remotely sensed mapping. We found that differencing pre- and post-event normalized difference vegetation index maps and lidar worked best for identifying soil slumps and rapid soil flows, but not as well for small soil slides, soil block slides and rock falls. The SAR-based methods did not work well for identifying any landslide types because of high noise levels likely related to snow. Some landslides, especially those that resulted in minor surface displacement, were identifiable only from the field observations. This work highlights the importance of the rapid collection of field observations and provides guidance for future mappers on which techniques, or combination of techniques, will be most effective at remotely mapping landslides in a subarctic and urban environment.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Estimates of volcanic mercury emissions from Redoubt Volcano, Augustine Volcano, and Mount Spurr eruption ash

Ash is a potential sink of volcanically sourced atmospheric mercury (Hg), and the concentration of particle-bound Hg may provide constraints on Hg emissions during eruptions. We analyze Hg concentrations in 227 bulk ash samples from the Mount Spurr (1992), Redoubt Volcano (2009), and Augustine Volcano (2006) volcanic eruptions to investigate large-scale spatial, temporal, and volcanic-source trends. We find no significant difference in Hg concentrations in bulk ash by distance or discrete eruptive events at each volcano, suggesting that in-plume reactions converting gaseous Hg 0 to adsorbed Hg 2+ are happening on shorter timescales than considered in this study (minutes) and any additional in-plume controls are not discernable within intra-volcanic sample variability. However, we do find a significant difference in Hg concentration of ash among volcanic sources, which indicates that volcanoes may emit comparatively high or low quantities of Hg. We combine our Hg findings with total mass estimates of ashfall deposits to calculate minimum, first-order Hg emissions of 8.23 t Hg for Mount Spurr (1992), 1.25 t Hg for Redoubt Volcano (2009), and 0.16 t Hg for Augustine Volcano (2006). In particular, we find that Mount Spurr is a high Hg emitting volcano, and that its 1992 particulate Hg emissions likely contributed substantially to the global eruptive volcanic Hg budget for that year. Based on our findings, previous approaches that use long-term Hg/SO 2 mass ratios to estimate eruptive total Hg under-account for Hg emitted in explosive events, and global volcanogenic Total Hg estimates need revisiting.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

An algorithm for correction of atmospheric scattering dilution effects in volcanic gas emission measurements using skylight differential optical absorption spectroscopy

Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) is commonly used to measure gas emissions from volcanoes. DOAS instruments measure the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation scattered in the atmosphere by sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and other trace gases contained in volcanic plumes. The standard spectral retrieval methods assume that all measured light comes from behind the plume and has passed through the plume along a straight line. However, a fraction of the light that reaches the instrument may have been scattered beneath the plume and thus has passed around it. Since this component does not contain the absorption signatures of gases in the plume, it effectively “dilutes” the measurements and causes underestimation of the gas abundance in the plume. This dilution effect is small for clean-air conditions and short distances between instrument and plume. However, plume measurements made at long distance and/or in conditions with significant atmospheric aerosol, haze, or clouds may be severely affected. Thus, light dilution is regarded as a major error source in DOAS measurements of volcanic degassing. Several attempts have been made to model the phenomena and the physical mechanisms are today relatively well understood. However, these models require knowledge of the local atmospheric aerosol composition and distribution, parameters that are almost always unknown. Thus, a practical algorithm to quantitatively correct for the dilution effect is still lacking. Here, we propose such an algorithm focused specifically on SO 2 measurements. The method relies on the fact that light absorption becomes non-linear for high SO 2 loads, and that strong and weak SO 2 absorption bands are unequally affected by the diluting signal. These differences can be used to identify when dilution is occurring. Moreover, if we assume that the spectral radiance of the diluting light is identical to the spectrum of light measured away from the plume, a measured clean air spectrum can be used to represent the dilution component. A correction can then be implemented by iteratively subtracting fractions of this clean air spectrum from the measured spectrum until the respective absorption signals on strong and weak SO 2 absorption bands are consistent with a single overhead SO 2 abundance. In this manner, we can quantify the magnitude of light dilution in each individual measurement spectrum as well as obtaining a dilution-corrected value for the SO 2 column density along the line of sight of the instrument. This paper first presents the theory behind the method, then discusses validation experiments using a radiative transfer model, as well as applications to field data obtained under different measurement conditions at three different locations; Fagradalsfjall located on the Reykjanaes peninsula in south Island, Manam located off the northeast coast of mainland Papua New Guinea and Holuhraun located in the inland of north east Island.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2022

Forecasting explosions at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia, based on SO2 emission rates

Dome-building volcanic eruptions are often associated with frequent Vulcanian explosions, which constitute a substantial threat to proximal communities. One proposed mechanism driving such explosions is the sealing of the shallow volcanic system followed by pressurization due to gas accumulation beneath the seal. We investigate this hypothesis at Sinabung Volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia), which has been in a state of eruption since August 2010. In 2013, the volcano began erupting a lava dome and lava flow, and frequent explosions produced eruptive columns that rose many kilometers into the atmosphere and at times sent pyroclastic density currents down the southeast flanks. A network of scanning Differential Optical Absorption Spectrometers (DOAS) was installed on the volcano’s eastern flank in 2016 to continuously monitor SO 2 emission rates during daytime hours. Analysis of the DOAS data from October 2016 to September 2017 revealed that passive SO 2 emissions were generally lower in the 5 days leading up to explosive events (∼100 t/d) than was common in 5-day periods leading up to days on which no explosions occurred (∼200 t/d). The variability of passive SO 2 emissions, expressed as the standard deviation, also took on a slightly wider range of values before days with explosions (0–103 t/d at 1-sigma) than before days without explosions (43–117 t/d). These observations are consistent with the aforementioned seal-failure model, where the sealing of the volcanic conduit blocks gas emissions and leads to pressurization and potential Vulcanian explosions. We develop a forecasting methodology that allows calculation of a relative daily explosion probability based solely on measurements of the SO 2 emission rate in the preceding days. We then calculate forecast explosion probabilities for the remaining SO 2 emissions dataset (October 2017—September 2021). While the absolute accuracy of forecast explosion probabilities is variable, the method can inform the probability of an explosion occurring relative to that on other days in each test period. This information can be used operationally by volcano observatories to assess relative risk. The SO 2 emissions-based forecasting method is likely applicable to other open vent volcanoes experiencing dome-forming eruptions.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2020

Spatial and temporal variations in SO2 and PM2.5 levels around Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i during 2007–2018

Among the hazards posed by volcanoes are the emissions of gases and particles that can affect air quality and damage agriculture and infrastructure. A recent intense episode of volcanic degassing associated with severe impacts on air quality accompanied the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i. This resulted in a major increase in gas emission rates with respect to usual emission values for this volcano, along with a shift in the source of the dominant plume to a populated area on the lower flank of the volcano. This led to reduced air quality in downwind communities. We analyse open-access data from the permanent air quality monitoring networks operated by the Hawai'i Department of Health (HDOH) and National Park Service (NPS), and report on measurements of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) between 2007 and 2018 and PM 2.5 (aerosol particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm) between 2010 and 2018. Additional air quality data were collected through a community-operated network of low-cost PM 2.5 sensors during the 2018 LERZ eruption. From 2007 to 2018 the two most significant escalations in Kīlauea's volcanic emissions were: the summit eruption that began in 2008 (Kīlauea emissions averaged 5–6 kt/day SO 2 from 2008 until summit activity decreased in May 2018) and the LERZ eruption in 2018 when SO 2 emission rates reached a monthly average of 200 kt/day during June. In this paper we focus on characterizing the airborne pollutants arising from the 2018 LERZ eruption and the spatial distribution and severity of volcanic air pollution events across the Island of Hawai'i. The LERZ eruption caused the most frequent and severe exceedances of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PM 2.5 air quality threshold (35 μg/m 3 as a daily average) in Hawai'i in the period 2010–2018. In Kona, for example, the maximum 24-h-mean mass concentration of PM 2.5 was recorded as 59 μg/m 3 on the twenty-ninth of May 2018, which was one of eight recorded exceedances of the EPA air quality threshold during the 2018 LERZ eruption, where there had been no exceedances in the previous 8 years as measured by the HDOH and NPS networks. SO 2 air pollution during the LERZ eruption was most severe in communities in the south and west of the island, as measured by selected HDOH and NPS stations in this study, with a maximum 24-h-mean mass concentration of 728 μg/m 3 recorded in Ocean View (100 km west of the LERZ emission source) in May 2018. Data from the low-cost sensor network correlated well with data from the HDOH PM 2.5 instruments, confirming that these low-cost sensors provide a robust means to augment reference-grade instrument networks.

Hawaii↗