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Sampling of sea ducks for influenza A viruses in Alaska during winter provided no evidence for an epidemiologic peak of infection. Isolates were recovered, however, that provide information on viral diversity and dispersal that may not be realized through sampling efforts focused on other avian taxa.
Emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic potential often have complex socioecological dynamics and limited ecological data, requiring integration of epidemiological modeling with surveillance. Although our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 has advanced considerably since its detection in late 2019, the factors influencing its introduction and transmission in wildlife hosts, particularly white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), remain poorly understood. We use a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible epidemiological model to investigate the spillover risk and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in wild and captive white-tailed deer populations across various simulated scenarios. We found that captive scenarios pose a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 introduction from humans into deer herds and subsequent transmission among deer, compared to wild herds. However, even in wild herds, the transmission risk is often substantial enough to sustain infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the strength of introduction from humans influences outbreak characteristics only to a certain extent. Transmission among deer was frequently sufficient for widespread outbreaks in deer populations, regardless of the initial level of introduction. We also explore the potential for fence line interactions between captive and wild deer to elevate outbreak metrics in wild herds that have the lowest risk of introduction and sustained transmission. Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 could be introduced and maintained in deer herds across a range of circumstances based on testing a range of introduction and transmission risks in various captive and wild scenarios. Our approach and findings will aid One Health strategies that mitigate persistent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in white-tailed deer populations and potential spillback to humans.
Background On November 20, 2016 two novel strains of H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIVs) were isolated from three whooper swans ( Cygnus cygnus ) at Gangjin Bay in South Jeolla province, South Korea. Identification of HPAIVs in wild birds is significant as there is a potential risk of transmission of these viruses to poultry and humans. Results Phylogenetic analysis revealed that Gangjin H5N6 viruses classified into Asian H5 clade 2.3.4.4 lineage and were distinguishable from H5N8 and H5N1 HPAIVs previously isolated in Korea. With the exception of the polymerase acidic (PA) gene, the viruses were most closely related to A/duck/Guangdong/01.01SZSGXJK005-Y/2016 (H5N6) (98.90 ~ 99.74%). The PA genes of the two novel Gangjin H5N6 viruses were most closely related to AIV isolates previously characterized from Korea, A/hooded crane/Korea/1176/2016 (H1N1) (99.16%) and A/environment/Korea/W133/2006 (H7N7) (98.65%). The lack of more recent viruses to A/environment/Korea/W133/2006 (H7N7) indicates the need for analysis of recent wild bird AIVs isolated in Korea because they might provide further clues as to the origin of these novel reassortant H5N6 viruses. Conclusions Although research on the origins and epidemiology of these infections is ongoing, the most likely route of infection for the whooper swans was through direct or indirect contact with reassortant viruses shed by migratory wild birds in Korea. As H5N6 HPAIVs can potentially be transmitted to poultry and humans, continuous monitoring of AIVs among wild birds will help to mitigate this risk.
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease affecting free-ranging and captive cervids that now occurs in 24 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Despite the potential threat of CWD to deer populations, little is known about the rates of infection and mortality caused by this disease. We used epidemiological models to estimate the force of infection and disease-associated mortality for white-tailed deer in the Wisconsin and Illinois CWD outbreaks. Models were based on age-prevalence data corrected for bias in aging deer using the tooth wear and replacement method. Both male and female deer in the Illinois outbreak had higher corrected age-specific prevalence with slightly higher female infection than deer in the Wisconsin outbreak. Corrected ages produced more complex models with different infection and mortality parameters than those based on apparent prevalence. We found that adult male deer have a more than threefold higher risk of CWD infection than female deer. Males also had higher disease mortality than female deer. As a result, CWD prevalence was twofold higher in adult males than females. We also evaluated the potential impacts of alternative contact structures on transmission dynamics in Wisconsin deer. Results suggested that transmission of CWD among male deer during the nonbreeding season may be a potential mechanism for producing higher rates of infection and prevalence characteristically found in males. However, alternatives based on high environmental transmission and transmission from females to males during the breeding season may also play a role.
When a pathogen infects a number of different hosts, the process of determining the relative importance of each host species to the persistence of the pathogen is often complex. Removal of a host species is a potential but rarely possible way of discovering the importance of that species to the dynamics of the disease. This study presents the results of a 12-year programme aimed at controlling brucellosis in cattle, sheep and goats and the cascading impacts on brucellosis in a sympatric population of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in the Boumort National Game Reserve (BNGR; NE Spain). From February 1998 to December 2009, local veterinary agencies tested over 36 180 individual blood samples from cattle, 296 482 from sheep and goats and 1047 from red deer in the study area. All seropositive livestock were removed annually. From 2006 to 2009 brucellosis was not detected in cattle and in 2009 only one of 97 red deer tested was found to be positive. The surveillance and removal of positive domestic animals coincided with a significant decrease in the prevalence of brucellosis in red deer. Our results suggest that red deer may not be able to maintain brucellosis in this region independently of cattle, sheep or goats, and that continued efforts to control disease in livestock may lead to the eventual eradication of brucellosis in red deer in the area.
Researchers and wildlife managers increasingly find themselves in situations where they must deal with infectious wildlife diseases such as chronic wasting disease, brucellosis, tuberculosis, and West Nile virus. Managers are often charged with designing and implementing control strategies, and researchers often seek to determine factors that influence and control the disease process. All of these activities require the ability to measure some indication of a disease's foothold in a population and evaluate factors affecting that foothold. The most common type of data available to managers and researchers is apparent prevalence data. Apparent disease prevalence, the proportion of animals in a sample that are positive for the disease, might seem like a natural measure of disease's foothold, but several properties, in particular, its dependency on age structure and the biasing effects of disease-associated mortality, make it less than ideal. In quantitative epidemiology, the a??force of infection,a?? or infection hazard, is generally the preferred parameter for measuring a disease's foothold, and it can be viewed as the most appropriate way to a??adjusta?? apparent prevalence for age structure. The typical ecology curriculum includes little exposure to quantitative epidemiological concepts such as cumulative incidence, apparent prevalence, and the force of infection. The goal of this paper is to present these basic epidemiological concepts and resulting models in an ecological context and to illustrate how they can be applied to understand and address basic epidemiological questions. We demonstrate a practical approach to solving the heretofore intractable problem of fitting general force-of-infection models to wildlife prevalence data using a generalized regression approach. We apply the procedures to Mycobacterium bovis (bovine tuberculosis) prevalence in bison (Bison bison) in Wood Buffalo National Park, Canada, and demonstrate strong age dependency in the force of infection as well as an increased mortality hazard in positive animals.
Objectives Wildlife may harbor clinically important antimicrobial resistant (AMR) bacteria, but the role of wildlife in the epidemiology of AMR bacterial infections in humans is largely unknown. In this study, we aimed to assess dissemination of the bla KPC carbapenemase gene among humans and gulls in Alaska. Methods We performed whole genome sequencing to determine the genetic context of bla KPC in bacterial isolates from all four human carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) infections reported in Alaska between 2013–2018 and to compare sequences to seven previously reported CPE isolates from gull feces within the same region and time period. Results Genomic analysis of CPE isolates suggested independent acquisition events among humans with no evidence for direct transmission of bla KPC between people and gulls. However, some isolates shared conserved genetic elements surrounding bla KPC , suggesting possible exchange between species. Conclusions Our results highlight the genomic plasticity associated with bla KPC and demonstrate that sampling of wildlife may be useful for identifying clinically relevant antimicrobial resistance not observed through local passive surveillance in humans.
The role of introduced avian malaria Plasmodium relictum in the decline and extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds has become a classic example of the potential effect of invasive diseases on biological diversity of naïve populations. However, empirical evidence describing the impact of avian malaria on fitness of Hawai‵i's endemic forest birds is limited, making it difficult to determine the importance of disease among the suite of potential limiting factors affecting the distribution and abundance of this threatened avifauna. We combined epidemiological force-of-infection with multistate capture––recapture models to evaluate a 7-year longitudinal study of avian malaria in ‵apapane, a relatively common native honeycreeper within mid-elevation Hawaiian forests. We found that malaria transmission was seasonal in this mid-elevation forest; transmission peaked during fall and during some years produced epizootic mortality events. Estimated annual mortality of hatch-year birds typically exceeded 50% and mortality of adults exceeded 25% during epizootics. The substantial impact of avian malaria on this relatively common native species demonstrates the key role this disease has played in the decline and extinction of Hawaiian forest birds.
There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.
Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.
During 2012, 2013 and 2015, we collected small mammals within 25 km of the town of Boende in Tshuapa Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The prevalence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in this area is unknown; however, cases of human infection were previously confirmed near these collection sites. Samples were collected from 353 mammals (rodents, shrews, pangolins, elephant shrews, a potamogale, and a hyrax). Some rodents and shrews were captured from houses where human monkeypox cases have recently been identified, but most were trapped in forests and agricultural areas near villages. Real-time PCR and ELISA were used to assess evidence of MPXV infection and other Orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infections in these small mammals. Seven (2.0%) of these animal samples were found to be anti-orthopoxvirus immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody positive (six rodents: two Funisciurus spp.; one Graphiurus lorraineus ; one Cricetomys emini ; one Heliosciurus sp.; one Oenomys hypoxanthus , and one elephant shrew Petrodromus tetradactylus ); no individuals were found positive in PCR-based assays. These results suggest that a variety of animals can be infected with OPXVs, and that epidemiology studies and educational campaigns should focus on animals that people are regularly contacting, including larger rodents used as protein sources.
Background: The epidemiology of avian hematozoa at high latitudes is still not well understood, particularly in sub-Arctic and Arctic habitats, where information is limited regarding seasonality and range of transmission, co-infection dynamics with parasitic and viral agents, and possible fitness consequences of infection. Such information is important as climate warming may lead to northward expansion of hematozoa with unknown consequences to northern-breeding avian taxa, particularly populations that may be previously unexposed to blood parasites. Methods: We used molecular methods to screen blood samples and cloacal/oropharyngeal swabs collected from 1347 ducks of five species during May-August 2010, in interior Alaska, for the presence of hematozoa, Influenza A Virus (IAV), and IAV antibodies. Using models to account for imperfect detection of parasites, we estimated seasonal variation in prevalence of three parasite genera (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium, Leucocytozoon) and investigated how co-infection with parasites and viruses were related to the probability of infection. Results: We detected parasites from each hematozoan genus in adult and juvenile ducks of all species sampled. Seasonal patterns in detection and prevalence varied by parasite genus and species, age, and sex of duck hosts. The probabilities of infection for Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites were strongly positively correlated, but hematozoa infection was not correlated with IAV infection or serostatus. The probability of Haemoproteus infection was negatively related to body condition in juvenile ducks; relationships between Leucocytozoon infection and body condition varied among host species. Conclusions: We present prevalence estimates for Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium infections in waterfowl at the interface of the sub-Arctic and Arctic and provide evidence for local transmission of all three parasite genera. Variation in prevalence and molecular detection of hematozoa parasites in wild ducks is influenced by seasonal timing and a number of host traits. A positive correlation in co-infection of Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus suggests that infection probability by parasites in one or both genera is enhanced by infection with the other, or that encounter rates of hosts and genus-specific vectors are correlated. Using size-adjusted mass as an index of host condition, we did not find evidence for strong deleterious consequences of hematozoa infection in wild ducks.
Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection (from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (10–11.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks (5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HPAI outbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance, we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (in particular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAI shedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive epizootiologic models of disease risks.
Background Rescuing amphibian diversity is an achievable conservation challenge. Disease mitigation is one essential component of population management. Here we assess existing disease mitigation strategies, some in early experimental stages, which focus on the globally emerging chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis . We discuss the precedent for each strategy in systems ranging from agriculture to human medicine, and the outlook for each strategy in terms of research needs and long-term potential. Results We find that the effects of exposure to Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis occur on a spectrum from transient commensal to lethal pathogen. Management priorities are divided between (1) halting pathogen spread and developing survival assurance colonies, and (2) prophylactic or remedial disease treatment. Epidemiological models of chytridiomycosis suggest that mitigation strategies can control disease without eliminating the pathogen. Ecological ethics guide wildlife disease research, but several ethical questions remain for managing disease in the field. Conclusions Because sustainable conservation of amphibians in nature is dependent on long-term population persistence and co-evolution with potentially lethal pathogens, we suggest that disease mitigation not focus exclusively on the elimination or containment of the pathogen, or on the captive breeding of amphibian hosts. Rather, successful disease mitigation must be context specific with epidemiologically informed strategies to manage already infected populations by decreasing pathogenicity and host susceptibility. We propose population level treatments based on three steps: first, identify mechanisms of disease suppression; second, parameterize epizootiological models of disease and population dynamics for testing under semi-natural conditions; and third, begin a process of adaptive management in field trials with natural populations.
Background : Understanding the distribution of disease in wildlife is key to predicting the impact of emerging zoonotic one health concerns, especially for wildlife species with extensive human and livestock interfaces. The widespread distribution and complex interactions of white - tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) with humans suggest deer population health and management may have implications beyond stewardship of the animals. The intracranial abscessation suppurative meningitis (IASM) disease complex in deer has been linked to Arcanobacterium pyogenes , an under - diagnosed and often misdiagnosed organism considered commensal in domestic livestock but associated with serious disease in numerous species, including humans. Methods : Our study used standard bacterial culture techniques to assess A. pyogenes prevalence among male deer sampled across six physiogeographic regions in Maryland and male and female deer in the Upper Eastern Shore under Traditional Deer Management (TDM) and Quality Deer Management (QDM), a management protocol that alters population demographics in favor of older male deer. Samples were collected from antler pedicles for males, the top of the head where pedicles would be if present for females, or the whole dorsal frontal area of the head for neonates. We collected nasal samples from all animals by swabbing the nasopharyngeal membranes. A gram stain and catalase test were conducted, and aerobic bacteria were identified to genus and species when possible. We evaluated the effect of region on whether deer carried A. pyogenes using Pearson's chi-square test with Yates’ continuity correction. For the white-tailed deer management study, we tested whether site, age class and sex predisposed animals to carrying A. pyogenes using binary logistic regression. Results : A. pyogenes was detected on deer in three of the six regions studied, and was common in only one region, the Upper Eastern Shore. In the Upper Eastern Shore, 45% and 66% of antler and nasal swabs from deer were positive for A. pyogenes , respectively. On the Upper Eastern Shore, prevalence of A. pyogenes cultured from deer did not differ between management areas, and was abundant among both sexes and across all age classes. No A. pyogenes was cultured from a small sample of neonates. Conclusion : Our study indicates A. pyogenes may be carried widely among white-tailed deer regardless of sex or age class, but we found no evidence the pathogen is acquired in utero. The distribution of A. pyogenes across regions and concentration in a region with low livestock levels suggests the potential for localized endemicity of the organism and the possibility that deer may serve as a maintenance reservoir for an emerging one health concern.
Background Antibiotic-resistant bacteria pose challenges to healthcare delivery systems globally; however, limited information is available regarding the prevalence and spread of such bacteria in the environment. The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in large-bodied gulls ( Larus spp.) at urban and remote locations in Southcentral Alaska to gain inference into the association between antibiotic resistance in wildlife and anthropogenically influenced habitats. Methods Escherichia coli was cultured ( n =115 isolates) from fecal samples of gulls (n=160) collected from a remote location, Middleton Island, and a more urban setting on the Kenai Peninsula. Results Screening of E. coli from fecal samples collected from glaucous-winged gulls ( Larus glaucescens ) at Middleton Island revealed 8% of isolates were resistant to one or more antibiotics and 2% of the isolates were resistant to three or more antibiotics. In contrast, 55% of E. coli isolates derived from fecal samples collected from large-bodied gulls (i.e. glaucous, herring [ Larus argentatus ], and potentially hybrid gulls) on the Kenai Peninsula were resistant to one or more antibiotics and 22% were resistant to three or more antibiotics. In addition, total of 16% of the gull samples from locations on the Kenai Peninsula harbored extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant E. coli isolates (extended-spectrum beta-lactamases [ESBL] and plasmid-encoded AmpC [pAmpC]), in contrast to Middleton Island where no ESBL- or pAmpC-producing isolates were detected. Conclusion Our findings indicate that increased prevalence of antibiotic resistance is associated with urban environments in Southcentral Alaska and presumably influenced by anthropogenic impacts. Further investigation is warranted to assess how migratory birds may maintain and spread antimicrobial-resistant bacteria of relevance to human and animal health.
Bovine tuberculosis is a bacterial disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis in livestock and wildlife with hosts that include Eurasian badgers ( Meles meles ), brushtail possum ( Trichosurus vulpecula ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). Risk-assessment efforts in Michigan have been initiated on farms to minimize interactions of cattle with wildlife hosts but research on M. bovis on cattle farms has not investigated the spatial context of disease epidemiology. To incorporate spatially explicit data, initial likelihood of infection probabilities for cattle farms tested for M. bovis , prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer, deer density, and environmental variables for each farm were modeled in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We used geo-referenced locations of 762 cattle farms that have been tested for M. bovis , white-tailed deer prevalence, and several environmental variables that may lead to long-term survival and viability of M. bovis on farms and surrounding habitats (i.e., soil type, habitat type). Bayesian hierarchical analyses identified deer prevalence and proportion of sandy soil within our sampling grid as the most supported model. Analysis of cattle farms tested for M. bovis identified that for every 1% increase in sandy soil resulted in an increase in odds of infection by 4%. Our analysis revealed that the influence of prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer was still a concern even after considerable efforts to prevent cattle interactions with white-tailed deer through on-farm mitigation and reduction in the deer population. Cattle farms test positive for M. bovis annually in our study area suggesting that the potential for an environmental source either on farms or in the surrounding landscape may contributing to new or re-infections with M. bovis . Our research provides an initial assessment of potential environmental factors that could be incorporated into additional modeling efforts as more knowledge of deer herd factors and cattle farm prevalence is documented.
Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.