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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2022

Large-scale fire management restores grassland bird richness for a private lands ecoregion

Of all terrestrial biomes, grasslands are losing the most biodiversity the most rapidly, so there is a critical need to document and learn from large-scale restoration successes. In the Loess Canyons ecoregion of the Great Plains, USA, an association of private ranchers and natural resource agencies has led a multi-decadal, ecoregion-scale initiative to combat the loss of grasslands to woody plant encroachment by restoring large-scale fire regimes. Here, we use 14 years of fire treatment history with 6 years of grassland bird monitoring and remotely sensed tree cover data across 136,767 ha of privately owned grassland to quantify outcomes of large-scale grassland restoration efforts. Grassland bird richness increased across 65% (90,032 ha) of the Loess Canyons, and woody plant cover decreased up to 55% across 25% (7408 ha) of all fire-treated areas. This was accomplished with extreme fire treatments that killed mature trees, were large (mean annual area burned was 3100 ha), spatially clustered and straddled boundaries between invasive woodlands and remaining grasslands – not heavily infested woodlands. Findings from this study provide the first evidence of human management reversing the impacts of woody encroachment on grassland birds at an ecoregion scale.

Nebraska↗
USGS2022

Knowledge sharing for shared success in the decade on ecosystem restoration

The Decade on Ecosystem Restoration aims to provide the means and incentives for upscaling restoration efforts worldwide. Although ecosystem restoration is a broad, interdisciplinary concept, effective ecological restoration requires sound ecological knowledge to successfully restore biodiversity and ecosystem services in degraded landscapes. We emphasize the critical role of knowledge and data sharing to inform synthesis for the most robust restoration science possible. Such synthesis is critical for helping restoration ecologists better understand how context affects restoration outcomes, and to increase predictive capacity of restoration actions. This predictive capacity can help to provide better information for evidence-based decision-making, and scale-up approaches to meet ambitious targets for restoration. We advocate for a concerted effort to collate species-level, fine-scale, ecological community data from restoration studies across a wide range of environmental and ecological gradients. Well-articulated associated metadata relevant to experience and social or landscape contexts can further be used to explain outcomes. These data could be carefully curated and made openly available to the restoration community to help to maximize evidence-based knowledge sharing, enable flexible re-use of existing data and support predictive capacity in ecological community responses to restoration actions. We detail how integrated data, analysis and knowledge sharing via synthesis can support shared success in restoration ecology by identifying successful and unsuccessful outcomes across diverse systems and scales. We also discuss potential interdisciplinary solutions and approaches to overcome challenges associated with bringing together subfields of restoration practice. Sharing this knowledge and data openly can directly inform actions and help to improve outcomes for the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗
USGS2021

Evaluating the use of marine protected areas by endangered species: A habitat selection approach

1. Optimizing the design of marine protected area (MPA) networks for the conservation of migratory marine species and their habitats involves a suite of important considerations, such as appropriate scale requirements and the distribution of anthropogenic impacts. Often, a fundamental component of the conservation planning process is delineating areas of high use or high biodiversity within a region of interest. 2. However, basing conservation strategies off merely the number of individuals in an ecosystem is outdated and potentially subject to arbitrary thresholds. To be effective at protecting marine megafauna, MPAs would ideally encompass habitats used by focal species. Through satellite-tracking studies, evidence of whether species actually use protected areas is emerging. 3. Here, we present a multispecies perspective on habitat selection within existing MPAs throughout the Floridian ecoregion, which encompasses coastal Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Using an 11-year satellite-tracking dataset on 235 marine turtles, we used integrated step selection analysis to quantify the effects of sea turtle behavioural state (identified by a switching state-space model), protected area status, chlorophyll and bathymetry on habitat selection. 4. Our results show that sea turtles do select for existing protected areas, specifically multi-use zones, while controlling for the effects of depth and primary productivity. However, our analysis revealed that turtles showed no selection for the no-take zones within MPAs, during either transiting or foraging. 5. These findings contribute to the existing literature base of MPA use for highly mobile, imperilled species and could inform management of existing MPAs or changes to zoning, specifically multi-use to no-take. Our use of a robust spatial modelling framework to evaluate habitat selection relative to MPAs could be incorporated into conservation planning to build MPA networks designed to accommodate migratory species.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Intra-site sources of restoration variability in severely invaded rangeland: Strong temporal effects of herbicide-weather interactions; weak spatial effects of plant-community patch type and litter

Invasions by exotic annual grasses (EAGs) are replacing native perennials in semiarid areas globally, including the vast sagebrush-steppe rangelands of western North America. Efforts to eradicate EAGs and restore perennials have had mixed success, especially in relatively warm and dry areas where EAGs had high dominance prior to intervention. Greater consideration of the ecological sources of variability in EAG treatment outcomes may improve success. We hypothesized that herbicide and restoration outcomes would be influenced by restoration strategy (type of herbicide, seeding or planting, timing of treatment) and underlying spatial variability associated with plant community patch type and litter, all applied in a landscape-scale experiment in a severely invaded area in Southern Idaho, USA. EAGs, specifically medusahead ( Taeniatherum caput-medusae [L.] Nevski), were strongly reduced for up to 3 years (maximum observation period) by the pre-emergent herbicide indaziflam, whereas the pre/post-emergent imazapic reduced EAGs only when applied twice. Indaziflam effects were greater when post-spray moisture was greater, and also when co-applied with imazapic, but reapplying indaziflam did not lead to additional reduction of EAGs. Imazapic and indaziflam each stimulated species-specific, secondary invasion by exotic and/or invasive tall forbs. Application of the broadleaf herbicide aminopyralid provided only a fleeting 1 year of control of a dominant, highly noxious forb skeletonweed ( Chondrilla juncea L.). Underlying heterogeneity in plant community patch type (dominant herb species) explained only ∼5% of variation in the herbicide effects, and manipulation of litter prior to spraying had no effect. Several years of seedings and planting resulted in no establishment of native perennials. Herbicides, especially indaziflam, appear to be an effective tool for reducing EAGs for multiple years in the challenging restoration conditions we evaluated, particularly if their application coincides with suitable moisture. However, restoring the perennials required for longer term resistance to reinvasion is a serious challenge that could be avoided with preservation of perennials.

Idaho↗
USGS2022

Confirmation that eagle fatalities can be reduced by automated curtailment of wind turbines

Automated curtailment is potentially a powerful technique to reduce collision mortality of wildlife with wind turbines. Previously, we used a before–after–control–impact framework to demonstrate that eagle fatalities declined after automated curtailment was implemented with the IdentiFlight system at a wind power facility in Wyoming, USA. We received substantial interest and feedback regarding our study and, here, we implement several analytical suggestions and include more recent data that strengthen the inference we draw from our results. The five main analytical suggestions we received were to (1) exclude from analysis data that were collected during the period when automated curtailment was only partially implemented; (2) only analyse data from a single make and model of turbine; (3) evaluate changes in the rate of fatality, instead of the yearly numbers of fatalities that result from fluctuations around that rate; (4) calculate a standard measure determining effects of a treatment in a before–after–control–impact study and (5) examine yearly fluctuations of the fatality rate during the before period. After incorporating these suggestions and including additional data collected since the prior paper was published, our results confirm prior work. We demonstrate that eagle fatalities were reduced by 85% (95% highest density interval = 12%, 100%) after implementation of automated curtailment. Rate of fatalities declined by 2.85 eagles per year (−0.67, 5.70) between before and after periods at the treatment site and increased by 2.26 eagles per year (−1.77, 7.37) at the control site. Overall, the fatality rate declined by 4.91 (−0.27, 11.27) more eagles per year at the treatment site than at the control site. The probability that the fatality rate declined at the treatment site relative to the control site was 0.97. Our re-analysis strengthens our inference by using more robust analyses and data to support the conclusions of the prior study suggesting that automated curtailment was effective at reducing eagle fatalities at our treatment site. Because of the site- and species-specific nature of our work, future research should examine the efficacy of automated curtailment at other sites, with other species, and under different curtailment regimes.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗
USGS2022

Moisture abundance and proximity mediate seasonal use of mesic areas and survival of greater sage-grouse broods

Water is a critical and limited resource, particularly in the arid West, but water availability is projected to decline even while demand increases due to growing human populations and increases in duration and severity of drought. Mesic areas provide important water resources for numerous wildlife species, including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. Understanding how wildlife use these crucial areas is necessary to inform management and conservation of sensitive species. Specifically, the influence of anthropogenic water subsidies such as irrigated pastures is not well-studied. We evaluated brood-rearing habitat selection and brood survival of sage-grouse in Long Valley, California, an area where the water rights are primarily owned by the city of Los Angeles and water is used locally to irrigate for livestock. This area thus represents a unique balance between the needs of wildlife and people that could increasingly define future water management. In this study, sage-grouse broods moved closer to the edge of mesic areas and used more interior areas during the late brood-rearing period, selecting for greener areas after 1 July. Mesic areas were particularly important during dry years, with broods using areas farther interior than in wet years. Brood survival was also positively influenced by the availability and condition of mesic resources, as indicated by variation in values of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), with survival peaking at moderate values of NDVI and just outside the edge but decreasing inside the mesic areas. Our results highlight the importance of quality edge habitat of large mesic areas for sage-grouse to balance habitat selection and survival, particularly during drier years and during the late brood-rearing period, which is a critical period because chick survival has been shown to influence population growth. This study highlights the implications of large-scale anthropogenic water manipulation, and the balance between local irrigation and water distribution to benefit other regions, from the context of a species of high conservation concern in North American sagebrush ecosystems.

California↗
USGS2023

A field test of R package GPSeqClus: For establishing animal location clusters

The ability to track animals with Global Positioning System (GPS) collars opened an enormous potential for studying animal movements and behaviour in their natural environment. One such endeavour is to identify clusters of GPS locations as a way to estimate predator kill rate. Clapp et al. (2021) developed an R package ( GPSeqClus ) to assess a location dataset based on user-defined parameters to identify clusters and their characteristics. These characteristics can then help to distinguish resting-site clusters from kill sites of their large (>50 kg) prey. We identified location clusters of an adult male wolf Canis lupus on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada in July 2009 and tracked him until he died in April 2010. Identifying location clusters was challenging because the collar only obtained two GPS locations per day (12 h apart). In July 2010, we searched 30 of 52 location-clusters we identified as kill/scavenge sites and found 17 of them as such, given they had muskox Ovibos moschatus or caribou Rangifer tarandus pearyi remains nearby. We also documented five wolf rendezvous sites, two den sites, and the wolf's death site to total 60 location-clusters in all. We used a two-step process in testing the R Package GPSeqClus (hereafter GPSeqClus ): (1) compare the number of clusters our method discerned with the number identified by the new algorithm, and (2) compare the number of biologically significant clusters (e.g. den sites, kill/feeding sites) we found with the number the new algorithm located. We made these tests with GPSeqClus by varying the search radius, number of days at a site, and minimum number of locations required for a cluster. GPSeqClus compared well to our technique, with the best sub-algorithm among the 25 we tested only missing three of our identified clusters and yielding six additional clusters. GPSeqClus identified 16 of the 17 confirmed sites of remains, all wolf home sites, and the wolf's carcass site. Identifying clusters using a 500-m search radius, a 1.5-day window, and a minimum of two GPS locations per cluster was suitable for a coarse GPS acquisition rate of two locations per day when prey are large, such as muskox or caribou. Given that GPSeqClus performed well with our coarse location dataset, we expect it will also perform even better with a collar acquiring more than two locations per day. Having a field-tested utility such as GPSeqClus will enhance carnivore predation studies elsewhere.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗
USGS2023

Elevation, canopy cover and grass cover structure patterns of seedling establishment in a subtropical post-fire restoration

Ecological restoration is beneficial to ecological communities in this era of large-scale landscape change and ecological disruption. However, restoration outcomes are notoriously variable, which makes fine-scale decision-making challenging. This is true for restoration efforts that follow large fires, which are increasingly common as the climate changes. Post-fire restoration efforts, like tree planting and seeding have shown mixed success, though the causes of the variation in restoration outcomes remain unclear. Abiotic factors such as elevation and fire severity, as well as biotic factors, such as residual canopy cover and abundance of competitive understorey grasses, can vary across a burned area and may all influence the success of restoration efforts to re-establish trees following forest fires. We examined the effect of these factors on the early seedling establishment of a tree species—māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla )—in a subtropical montane woodland in Hawaiʻi. Following a human-caused wildfire, we sowed seeds of māmane as part of a restoration effort. We co-designed a project to examine māmane seedling establishment. We found that elevation was of overriding importance, structuring total levels of plant establishment, with fewer seedlings establishing at higher elevations. Residual canopy cover was positively correlated with seedling establishment, while cover by invasive, competitive understorey grasses very weakly positively correlated with increased seedling establishment. Our results point to specific factors structuring plant establishment following a large fire and suggest additional targeted restoration actions within this subtropical system. For example, if greater native woody recruitment is a management goal, then actions could include targeted seed placement at lower elevations where establishment is more likely, increased seeding densities at high elevation where recruitment rates are lower, and/or invasive grass removal prior to seeding. Such actions may result in faster native ecosystem recovery, which is a goal of local land managers.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Assessing trade-offs in developing a landscape-scale nest monitoring programme for a threatened shorebird

Effective monitoring of wildlife species requires thorough planning and development of survey programmes that can address management and conservation objectives. Decisions about monitoring programmes include where to survey, survey design and how much effort to allocate at survey sites are typically predicated on limited budgets and available resources. When the scope of inference requires monitoring on a broad spatial scale, predictions of habitat distribution or suitability may be useful for identifying potential survey sites. We focused on a threatened but widely distributed shorebird, the piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ), which is actively monitored across some, but not all of its range. Our objective was to use piping plover habitat distribution maps, which vary annually, to assess the effectiveness of multiple monitoring programme scenarios and their associated costs. In the breeding range, efforts to improve productivity for species of conservation concern often focus on improving probabilities of nest survival. Consequently, collecting adequate nesting data is crucial for obtaining accurate and precise estimates of nest survival and for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions. By simulating the nest monitoring process, we evaluated how much area, where and how often to survey each site when estimating nest survival and detecting effects of potential management actions. As expected, precision increased and bias decreased around nest survival estimates with greater survey coverage and nest visit frequency. We also identified monitoring programmes with negative net values where survey costs outweighed statistical benefits. Although we applied our simulation framework to evaluate nest monitoring designs for piping plovers, it could be extended to assess whether different monitoring programmes can detect changes in the distribution of other species or occupancy of habitats over time.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗
USGS2024

Writing SMART objectives for natural resource and environmental management

In natural resource and environmental management, well-written objectives are critical for effective decision-making and the achievement of desired outcomes. This article aims to improve practitioners' ability to identify and write SMART ( S pecific, M easurable, A chievable, R elevant, T ime-bound) objectives for natural resource and environmental management. We differentiate between research and management objectives, define each SMART criterion, and introduce a template to help write management objectives. We demonstrate the use of the SMART management objectives template with a hypothetical example and two recent applications. The template simplifies the process of writing SMART management objectives. It is applicable to popular management frameworks like management by objectives and structured decision making. The implementation of SMART criteria and the provided template can lead to better outcomes in natural resource and environmental management, benefiting current and future generations.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗
USGS2024

Balancing ecology and practicality to rank waterbodies for preventative invasive species management

‘Early detection and rapid response’ (EDRR) is the most successful framework for preventative invasive species management, but prioritizing localized EDRR actions with limited resources is challenging. An approach that ranks individual locations, such as waterbodies, for EDRR by combining an invasive species' establishment risk with the practicality of managing it could help set reasonable priorities. Here, we worked with regional practitioners in Arkansas, USA, and the broader Southeastern USA to co-produce a workflow for preventative aquatic invasive species management that (1) estimates establishment risk under current and future climates with a species distribution model, (2) scores waterbodies according to difficulty of eradicating an aquatic invasive species if it were introduced and (3) combines establishment risk and eradication difficulty scores to rank waterbodies according to preventative management priority. As our focal species, we used giant salvinia ( Salvinia molesta ), a floating aquatic fern ranked among the worst weeds in the world due to its negative socio-ecological impacts and difficulty to eradicate once established. Current establishment risk is low for much of our study area, but under future climate scenarios (RCP 8.5), areas with >60% giant salvinia establishment risk increased from 546 km 2 to 30,219 km 2 between 2023 and 2040 in Arkansas. We found giant salvinia establishment risk and eradication difficulty are independent of each other ( r = 0.28), and it follows that, alone, early detection tools such as species distribution models are insufficient for managers to prioritize sites for EDRR. Practical implication : We envision our approach fitting into a potential EDRR workflow that cascades from broad- to local-scale. To illustrate, (1) horizon scanning and/or climate matching generates lists of high-risk invasive species; (2) species lists are narrowed according to eradication feasibility scores; (3) for all remaining species, all waterbodies across a geography of interest receive prioritization rankings based on establishment risk and eradication difficulty scores. Given that climate change makes predicting invasive species' distributions a moving target, combining co-produced eradication difficulty scoring with species distribution modelling will balance rigour with practicality when prioritizing locations for EDRR.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklaho↗
USGS2024

Assessing the attractiveness of native wildflower species to bees (Hymenoptera: Anthophila) in the southeastern United States

Habitat loss, agricultural intensification, pesticide use, disease and climate change have contributed to the decline of numerous insect groups. Recent government initiatives have recognized the importance of supplementary wildflower plantings to support native bee populations, yet little information exists on the attractiveness of recommended plant species to bees. With the use of network analysis and generalized linear mixed models, we evaluated the attractiveness of 18 wildflower species belonging to 6 families (Apiaceae, Apocynaceae, Asteraceae, Fabaceae, Lamiaceae and Verbenaceae) planted in a randomized block design by conducting timed targeted sweep netting surveys. We also evaluated the floral preferences of four bee species ( Apis mellifera , Halictus poeyi/ligatus , Bombus griseocollis and Bombus impatiens ) to the planted wildflower species with the use of GLMs. We found that Asclepias tuberosa, Gaillardia pulchella and Verbena hastata attracted the greatest abundance, richness and diversity of native bees compared to the other wildflower species. Collectively, Asclepias tuberosa, Gaillardia pulchella and Verbena hastata attracted 89% of all bee taxa in the study, which exemplifies the importance of including them in a wildflower mixture to attract native bees. While several wildflower species attracted low abundance, richness and diversity of native bees such as Monarda fistulosa, Symphyotrichum pilosum and Eryngium yuccifolium , they are still ecologically important for attracting uncommon or specialist bee species and should be included in seed mixes for this reason. Solution . Our results highlight that each species of native wildflower varies in the abundance, richness and diversity of native bees they attract; this could be considered in the decision-making of landowners and land managers to promote wildflower plantings to reflect the needs of certain groups of bees of conservation interest.

Alabama↗
USGS2024

A decade of curtailment studies demonstrates a consistent and effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind turbines in North America

There is a rapid, global push for wind energy installation. However, large numbers of bats are killed by turbines each year, raising concerns about the impacts of wind energy expansion on bat populations. Preventing turbine blades from spinning at low wind speeds, referred to as curtailment, is a method to reduce bat fatalities, but drawing consistent inference across studies has been challenging. We compiled publicly available studies that evaluated curtailment at six wind energy facilities in North America across 10 years. We used meta-regression of 29 implemented treatments to determine fatality reduction efficacy as well as sources of variation influencing efficacy. We also estimated species-specific fatality reduction for three species that comprise most fatalities in North America: hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ), eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ) and silver-haired bat ( Lasionycteris noctivagans ). We found that curtailment reduced total bat fatalities by 33% with every 1.0 ms −1 increase in curtailment wind speed. Estimates of the efficacy for the three target species were similar (hoary bats: 28% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 0.4%–48%, eastern red bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 13%–47% and silver-haired bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 3%–53%). Across multiple facilities and years, a 5.0 ms −1 cut-in speed was estimated to reduce total bat fatalities by an average of 62% (95% CI: 54%–69%). Mortality reductions at individual facilities in any given year were estimated to fall between 33%–79% (95% prediction interval). Inter-annual differences rather than inter-site or turbine characteristics accounted for most of the variation in efficacy rates. Species-specific average mortality reduction at 5.0 ms −1 curtailment wind speed was 48% (95% CI: 24%–64%) for hoary bats, 61% (95% CI: 42%–74%) for eastern red bats and 52% (95% CI: 30%–66%) for silver-haired bats. Practical implication . curtailment reduced bat mortality at wind turbines in this North American study. Efficacy increased proportionally as curtailment speed is raised, and patterns and rates of efficacy were similar across species. This indicates that curtailment is an effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, but exploration of further refinements could both minimize bat mortality and maximize energy production.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗
USGS2024

Boundary spanning increases knowledge and action on invasive species in a changing climate

Challenges associated with global change stressors on ecosystems have prompted calls to improve actionable science, including through boundary-spanning activities, which aim to build connections and communication between researchers and natural resource practitioners. By synthesizing and translating research and practitioner knowledge, boundary-spanning activities could support proactive, research-informed conservation practice, but the success of these efforts is rarely evaluated. Using repeat survey data from the Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NE RISCC) Management Network, a boundary-spanning organization, we evaluate whether participating in NE RISCC affected practitioners' knowledge, actions and priorities related to invasive species management under a changing climate. Our survey results suggest that practitioners who participate in NE RISCC have greater knowledge about invasive species and climate change and are incorporating climate change in more ways into their invasive species management. We also found NE RISCC membership affected the perceived usefulness of informational resources, with NE RISCC members more frequently identifying research syntheses and targeted workshops (both are common products used by NE RISCC to translate science into practice and share manager knowledge) as useful compared to non-members. Practitioners who participate in NE RISCC also identified somewhat different research priorities, with non-members and short-term members more frequently identifying range-shifting neonative species and their impacts on native communities as higher priorities compared to long-term NE RISCC members. NE RISCC research activities and outreach materials have consistently framed range-shifting neonative species as comparatively low risk, suggesting that this information has influenced practitioner's perception of risk. Practical implication : Although real-world impacts of applied ecology are notoriously difficult to quantify, this analysis illustrates that if research results are actively translated, they can affect the knowledge and actions of natural resource practitioners. These impacts illustrate the potential for boundary-spanning efforts to address other global change challenges to conservation.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗
USGS2025

Using community-reported data to understand how boat speed affects marine wildlife: An example with the Florida manatee

Boat collisions are a known and increasing threat to many marine wildlife populations. The Florida manatee Trichechus manatus latirostris is a key example of a species with high boat-related mortality, whose long-term viability and population are limited by human activities in shared habitats. The goal of this work was to quantify the probability of lethal injury to Florida manatees using community-reported data on collisions with boats. We test the hypothesis that higher boat speeds increase the probability of lethal injury to manatees. Empirical data to test this hypothesis are collected opportunistically, with low sample sizes and uncertainty in reported boat speed. We fit a logistic regression model using Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to community-reported collision data. We also present results for two errors-in-variables modelling approaches that account for uncertainty in boat speeds reported as qualitative values. The first uses a multiple imputation approach, whereas the second uses Bayesian estimation with informed priors. We evaluated issues related to quasi-separation, sample size, and measurement errors using simulated data. The models predicted that the probability of lethal injury increased at greater strike speed. However, the small number of records with low boat speed or where the injury was considered non-lethal contributed to uncertainty around this functional relationship. Although the relationships were consistent among models, the uncertainty was greater for the errors-in-variables models. Practical implication . When combined with information on manatee and boat abundance and behaviour, the results of this analysis can be used to predict the number of deadly collisions, test alternative management scenarios and inform speed zone regulations. We also identify ways to improve data reporting to reduce uncertainty in the effect of boat speed on lethal injury to marine wildlife. This type of analysis can be applied to any marine animal where records of collisions with boats are kept.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Predicting secretive species distribution using Bayesian networks with and without expert elicitation: A case study incorporating double-blind peer review

1. Species that are secretive, imperilled and consequently data deficient often re-quire conservation action despite limited available information. In such scenarios, Bayesian networks (BNs) offer a versatile and intuitive approach for utilizing various information sources, including literature reviews, community science data sets and expert knowledge. Although it has been suggested that peer review be incorporated during expert elicitations in a BN modelling context, little information exists about how to implement this approach or about how models constructed using this approach perform. 2. We documented a double-blind peer review approach for expert elicitation in a BN modelling context. Further, we compared BN models that were generated by experts who engaged in this peer-review process (PRBNs) to those that were generated by a single expert whose knowledge was supplemented only by a literature review (LRBNs). These comparisons were based on the ability to predict the occurrence (via community science and satellite telemetry data) of a secretive and data deficient species, the King Rail ( Rallus elegans ), throughout a large region. 3. We found that the LRBNs tended to predict King Rail occurrence as well as, or better than, the PRBNs. The LRBNs that we evaluated provided more consistent predictions across our study area. However, preliminary data suggest that the PRBNs may better distinguish between locations of focal and non-focal species within smaller regions. 4. Practical implication. Our framework for utilizing double-blind peer review could serve as a useful guide and have practical implications for incorporating expert knowledge in BN models. Further, our model comparison case study suggests that, in some contexts, a single expert who uses a literature review to inform the creation of BN models may be able to accurately predict the occurrence of a secretive and data-deficient focal species. Taken together, this information could help ecologists decide when a double-blind peer review approach to expert elicitation is necessary and how to implement this approach in a BN modelling context.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennes↗
USGS2026

Exploring management options for moose at their southern range limits considering growing disease risk

1. Populations of cold-adapted species are increasingly vulnerable along their low-latitude range limits due to shifting environmental conditions, biotic interactions, and anthropogenic pressures. Managing these populations is particularly challenging because of complex ecological dynamics, conflicting stakeholder interests, and decision-making under uncertainty. 2. We explored population growth (λ) of moose ( Alces alces ) under different hypothetical management scenarios, simulating combinations of five hypothetical harvest levels with three levels of disease impact. 3. Facing current disease, the population could support multiple levels of conservative harvest. Under elevated levels of disease-caused mortality, projections indicated declines for all harvest scenarios. We projected increases across all harvest scenarios when overlap with white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) was hypothetically reduced and disease mortality in moose minimized. We investigated whether uncertainty in moose demographic parameters altered population trajectory, and found changes in adult fecundity and calf survival could alter harvest decisions when λ<1. 4. Practical implication . While moose population trajectories may remain stable under current conditions, management of white-tailed deer that reduces moose exposure to lethal parasites may provide the greatest utility in sustaining moose in New York given the potential for increased disease. Continued monitoring of population size, growth, and disease prevalence would inform sustainable moose harvest levels that balance social and ecological management considerations.

New York↗
USGS2026

Survey protocols drive heterogeneity in occupancy estimates that cannot be standardized using post hoc analyses

Site occupancy models are widely used to estimate species distributions from presence–nondetection data, yet for mobile animals, the true proportion of sites occupied varies in time. Thus, true occupancy and estimates generated from different protocols are affected by temporal characteristics of survey design. Here we tested whether we could standardize occupancy estimates across different sampling protocols with a post hoc statistical test. Using an individual-based movement model of Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ), we simulated point count surveys across 3000 populations under 90 spatially and temporally variable sampling protocols. For each simulation, we fit a standard occupancy model, then used minute-level detections to truncate surveys and generate occupancy estimates across increasing survey lengths. We fit asymptotic models to these series to estimate intercepts (instantaneous occupancy) and asymptotes (longer-term occupancy) and evaluated how well they approximated true instantaneous, daily and seasonal occupancy. We were unable to recover instantaneous or seasonal occupancy from any approach. Both standard occupancy models and asymptotic regression (the top-performing asymptotic model) most closely approximated daily occupancy; although asymptotic regression produced slightly less biased estimates, it showed substantially greater variability, resulting in greater overall error. Our results show that post hoc analytical approaches cannot, at present, reliably standardize occupancy estimates across heterogeneous survey designs. Instead, ensuring biologically informative and comparable estimates will depend on standardized survey protocols. Practical implication : Monitoring programs using presence–nondetection data should prioritize consistent survey protocols when estimating occupancy for mobile species, with a focus on daily occupancy as the most attainable and useful metric. Although the highest accuracy and precision were achieved under the most intensive survey protocols, for point counts of Wood Thrush and similar species, four consecutive 15–20 min surveys provide near-optimal precision and can be completed in a single visit, making them well suited for estimating relative occupancy under logistical constraints. Three 20-min surveys spaced ~24 h apart closely approximate daily occupancy while maintaining reasonable precision. Developing similar protocols for other species and survey methods will be critical to ensuring comparable occupancy estimates across space and time.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗