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The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report

Linking land and sea through an ecological-economic model of coral reef recreation

Coastal zones are popular recreational areas that substantially contribute to social welfare. Managers can use information about specific environmental features that people value, and how these might change under different management scenarios, to spatially target actions to areas of high current or potential value. We explored how snorkelers’ experience would be affected by separate and combined land and marine management actions in West Maui, Hawaiʻi, using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a spatially explicit ecosystem services model. The BBN simulates the attractiveness of a site for recreation by combining snorkeler preferences for coastal features with expert opinions on ecological dynamics, snorkeler behavior, and management actions. A choice experiment with snorkelers elucidated their preferences for sites with better ecological and water-quality conditions. Linking the economic elicitation to the spatially explicit BBN to evaluate land-sea management scenarios provides specific guidance on where and how to act in West Maui to maximize ecosystem service returns. Improving coastal water quality through sediment runoff and cesspool effluent reductions (land management), and enhancing coral reef ecosystem conditions (marine management) positively affected overall snorkeling attractiveness across the study area, but with differential results at specific sites. The highest improvements were attained through joint land-sea management, driven by strong efforts to increase fish abundance and reduced sediment; however, the effects of management at individual beaches varied.

Hawaii

Economic and ecological impacts of abrupt climate change

M ost studies of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change and greenhouse warming have focused on scenarios that involve gradual climate change. Accumulating evidence from the paleosciences, however, shows that the patterns of change suggested by projections of future climate change are not representative of past climatic changes or of the transitions between different climatic regimes. In particular, many recent paleostudies indicate that current climate is much more stable than were climates in earlier periods.

Book chapter

National parks and protected areas: Appoaches for balancing social, economic, and ecological values

The balance of nature in any strict sense has been upset long ago…The only option we have is to create a new balance objectively determined for each area in accordance with the intended use of that area.” --Aldo Leopold, 1927, in a letter to the Superintendent of Glacier National Park The planning and management staff of state/national parks and protected areas face a complex set of management problems and an uncertain future. Today, internal and external forces are combining with changes in management philosophy (from a species to an ecosystem focus) to create a new direction in natural resources management. National Parks and Protected Areas: Approaches for Balancing Social, Economic and Ecological Values is peerless in its unified treatment of the issues surrounding this subject. From decision-making for planning and management to the principles of ecology and economics, this text examines the analytical methods, information technologies, and planning and management problems associated with protected area planning and management. Protected area managers and students in undergraduate and graduate courses in natural resource management will appreciate this highly readable book.

Book

The Kyoto protocol and payments for tropical forest: An interdisciplinary method for estimating carbon-offset supply and increasing the feasibility of a carbon market under the CDM

Protecting tropical forests under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could reduce the cost of emissions limitations set in Kyoto. However, while society must soon decide whether or not to use tropical forest-based offsets, evidence regarding tropical carbon sinks is sparse. This paper presents a general method for constructing an integrated model (based on detailed historical, remote sensing and field data) that can produce land-use and carbon baselines, predict carbon sequestration supply to a carbon-offsets market and also help to evaluate optimal market rules. Creating such integrated models requires close collaboration between social and natural scientists. Our project combines varied disciplinary expertise (in economics, ecology and geography) with local knowledge in order to create high-quality, empirically grounded, integrated models for Costa Rica.

Ecological Economics

Modeled effects of soil acidification on long-term ecological and economic outcomes for managed forests in the Adirondack region (USA)

Sugar maple ( Acer saccharum ) is among the most ecologically and economically important tree species in North America, and its growth and regeneration is often the focus of silvicultural practices in northern hardwood forests. A key stressor for sugar maple (SM) is acid rain, which depletes base cations from poorly-buffered forest soils and has been associated with much lower SM vigor, growth, and recruitment. However, the potential interactions between forest management and soil acidification – and their implications for the sustainability of SM and its economic and cultural benefits – have not been investigated. In this study, we simulated the development of 50 extant SM stands in the western Adirondack region of NY (USA) for 100 years under different soil chemical conditions and silvicultural prescriptions. We found that interactions between management prescription and soil base saturation will strongly shape the ability to maintain SM in managed forests. Below 12% base saturation, SM did not regenerate sufficiently after harvest and was replaced mainly by red maple ( Acer rubrum ) and American beech ( Fagus grandifolia ). Loss of SM on acid-impaired sites was predicted regardless of whether the shelterwood or diameter-limit prescriptions were used. On soils with sufficient base saturation, models predicted that SM will regenerate after harvest and be sustained for future rotations. We then estimated how these different post-harvest outcomes, mediated by acid impairment of forest soils, would affect the potential monetary value of ecosystem services provided by SM forests. Model simulations indicated that a management strategy focused on syrup production – although not feasible across the vast areas where acid impairment has occurred – may generate the greatest economic return. Although pollution from acid rain is declining, its long-term legacy in forest soils will shape future options for sustainable forestry and ecosystem stewardship in the northern hardwood forests of North America.

New York

An Integrated Social, Economic, and Ecologic Conceptual (ISEEC) framework for considering rangeland sustainability

Currently, there is no standard method to assess the complex systems in rangeland ecosystems. Decision makers need baselines to create a common language of current rangeland conditions and standards for continued rangeland assessment. The Sustainable Rangeland Roundtable (SRR), a group of private and public organizations and agencies, has created a forum to discuss rangeland sustainability and assessment. The SRR has worked to integrate social, economic, and ecological disciplines related to rangelands and has identified a standard set of indicators that can be used to assess rangeland sustainability. As part of this process, SRR has developed a two-tiered conceptual framework from a systems perspective to study the validity of indicators and the relationships among them. The first tier categorizes rangeland characteristics into four states. The second tier defines processes affecting these states through time and space. The framework clearly shows that the processes affect and are affected by each other. ?? 2009 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Society and Natural Resources

A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: Case study of wildland fire management in the USA

Ecological risk assessments typically are organized using the processes of planning (a discussion among managers, stakeholders, and analysts to clarify ecosystem management goals and assessment scope) and problem formulation (evaluation of existing information to generate hypotheses about adverse ecological effects, select assessment endpoints, and develop an analysis plan). These processes require modification to be applicable for integrated assessments that evaluate ecosystem management alternatives in terms of their ecological, economic, and social consequences. We present 8 questions that define the steps of a new process we term integrated problem formulation (IPF), and we illustrate the use of IPF through a retrospective case study comparing 2 recent phases of development of the Fire Program Analysis (FPA) system, a planning and budgeting system for the management of wildland fire throughout publicly managed lands in the United States. IPF extends traditional planning and problem formulation by including the explicit comparison of management alternatives, the valuation of ecological, economic and social endpoints, and the combination or integration of those endpoints. The phase 1, limited-prototype FPA system used a set of assessment endpoints of common form (i.e., probabilities of given flame heights over acres of selected land-resource types), which were specified and assigned relative weights at the local level in relation to a uniform national standard. This approach was chosen to permit system-wide optimization of fire management budget allocations according to a cost-effectiveness criterion. Before full development, however, the agencies abandoned this approach in favor of a phase 2 system that examined locally specified (rather than system-optimized) allocation alternatives and was more permissive as to endpoint form. We demonstrate how the IPF process illuminates the nature, rationale, and consequences of these differences, and argue that its early use for the FPA system may have enabled a smoother development path.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

Outplanting Wyoming big sagebrush following wldfire: stock performance and economics

Finding ecologically and economically effective ways to establish matrix species is often critical for restoration success. Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata subsp. wyomingensis) historically dominated large areas of western North America, but has been extirpated from many areas by large wildfires; its re-establishment in these areas often requires active management. We evaluated the performance (survival, health) and economic costs of container and bare-root stock based on operational plantings of more than 1.5 million seedlings across 2 200 ha, and compared our plantings with 30 other plantings in which sagebrush survival was tracked for up to 5 yr. Plantings occurred between 2001 and 2007, and included 12 combinations of stock type, planting amendment, and planting year.We monitored 10 500 plants for up to 8 yr after planting. Survival to Year 3 averaged 21% and was higher for container stock (30%) than bare-root stock (17%). Survival did not differ among container stock plantings, whereas survival of bare-root stock was sometimes enhanced by a hydrogel dip before planting, but not by mycorrhizal amendments. Most mortality occurred during the first year after planting; this period is the greatest barrier to establishment of sagebrush stock. The proportion of healthy stock in Year 1 was positively related to subsequent survival to Year 3. Costs were minimized, and survival maximized, by planting container stock or bare-root stock with a hydrogel dip. Our results indicate that outplanting is an ecologically and economically effective way of establishing Wyoming big sagebrush. However, statistical analyses were limited by the fact that data about initial variables (stock quality, site conditions, weather) were often unrecorded and by the lack of a replicated experimental design. Sharing consistent data and using an experimental approach would help land managers and restoration practitioners maximize the success of outplanting efforts.

Washington

Dispersive currents explain patterns of population connectivity in an ecologically and economically important fish

How to identify the drivers of population connectivity remains a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. Answering this question can be challenging in aquatic environments where dynamic lake and ocean currents coupled with high levels of dispersal and gene flow can decrease the utility of modern population genetic tools. To address this challenge, we used RAD-Seq to genotype 959 yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ), a species with an ~40-day pelagic larval duration (PLD), collected from 20 sites circumscribing Lake Michigan. We also developed a novel, integrative approach that couples detailed biophysical models with eco-genetic agent-based models to generate “predictive” values of genetic differentiation. By comparing predictive and empirical values of genetic differentiation, we estimated the relative contributions for known drivers of population connectivity (e.g., currents, behavior, PLD). For the main basin populations (i.e., the largest contiguous portion of the lake), we found that high gene flow led to low overall levels of genetic differentiation among populations ( F ST = 0.003). By far the best predictors of genetic differentiation were connectivity matrices that were derived from periods of time when there were strong and highly dispersive currents. Thus, these highly dispersive currents are driving the patterns of population connectivity in the main basin. We also found that populations from the northern and southern main basin are slightly divergent from one another, while those from Green Bay and the main basin are highly divergent ( F ST = 0.11). By integrating biophysical and eco-genetic models with genome-wide data, we illustrate that the drivers of population connectivity can be identified in high gene flow systems.

Lake Michigan

Valuing socio-economic and ecological attributes of forested watershed restoration to reduce wildfire risk in the southwestern U.S.

Forest restoration in a watershed can provide numerous ecological improvements and social benefits, including reducing the risk of extreme wildfire. Understanding the values of the accrued benefits can be used to evaluate the use of funds to support restoration. The Rio Grande watershed is a vast watershed covering approximately 335,000 mile 2 (867,646 km 2 ). The Rio Grande watershed provides a host of ecosystem services and recreation opportunities and supports municipal water supplies. We estimate the non-market values of forest restoration in the Rio Grande watershed using a choice experiment (CE) approach. While the ecological benefits are established in literature, we focus on the social characteristics, capturing the human-forest system in a comprehensive manner. Our results indicate a significant willingness to pay (WTP) for improving air quality, reducing private property damage, and creating local jobs, with the highest WTP for job creation. Split-sample analysis indicates respondents residing within the watershed highly value the socio-economic attributes of the restoration, while ecological attributes are preferred more outside of the watershed. Our results provide insights into the benefits of multi-dimensional services from forest restoration activities in a watershed.

New Mexico

Assessing and implementing the concept of Blue Economy in Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: Lessons from coupled human and natural systems

Inland fisheries often receive little to no attention in global discussions about sustainable development. The consequences of overlooking inland fisheries in sustainability dialogues are increasingly problematic as fisheries stressors (e.g., overharvest, species invasion, climate change, habitat modification) intensify. Elevating the global profile of inland fisheries requires an approach for quantifying and clearly conveying the ecological, economic, and societal values of these systems. One such approach involves the Blue Economy, a multifaceted concept initially used to describe the intersection of marine conservation and sustainable use of marine resources for economic growth. Although conceptually powerful, the Blue Economy has rarely been applied to inland waters and fisheries. To address this knowledge gap, we conceptualized Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries from a Blue Economy perspective. In particular, we evaluated the utility of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework for characterizing the ecological, economic, and societal values of Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries and associated contributions to the Blue Economy (e.g., human livelihoods, food security, recreation, conservation, economic prosperity). There are numerous opportunities to leverage CHANS methods (e.g., metacoupling, telecoupling) and associated mathematical models to advance fisheries science, inform fisheries management, and ultimately move toward a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes. To that end, we demonstrated applications of CHANS methods, discussed strategies for communicating with stakeholders, and provided insights for navigating challenges to developing a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes—a model that could be used in the African Great Lakes and other large ecosystems in the world.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Biodiversity and Habitat Markets—Policy, Economic, and Ecological implications of Market-Based Conservation

This report is a primer on market-like and market-based mechanisms designed to conserve biodiversity and habitat. The types of markets and market-based approaches that were implemented or are emerging to benefit biodiversity and habitat in the United States are examined. The central approaches considered in this report include payments for ecosystem services, conservation banks, habitat exchanges, and eco-labels. Based on literature reviews and input from experts and practitioners, the report characterizes each market-based approach including policy context and structure; the theoretical basis for applying market-based approaches; the ecological effectiveness of practices and tools for measuring performance; and the future outlook for biodiversity and habitat markets. This report draws from previous research and serves as a summary of pertinent information associated with biodiversity and habitat markets while providing references to materials that go into greater detail on specific topics.

Circular

Defining ecological and economical hydropoweroperations: a framework for managing dam releasesto meet multiple conflicting objectives

Hydroelectric dams are a flexible source of power, provide flood control, and contribute to the economic growth of local communities through real-estate and recreation. Yet the impoundment of rivers can alter and fragment miles of critical riverine habitat needed for other competing needs such as downstream consumptive water use, fish and wildlife population viability, or other forms of recreation. Multiple conflicting interests can compromise progressive management especially with recognized uncertainties related to whether management actions will fulfill the objectives of policy makers, resource managers and/or facility owners. Decision analytic tools were used in a stakeholder-driven process to develop and implement a template for evaluation and prediction of the effects of water resource management of multiple-use systems under the context provided by R.L. Harris Dam on the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, USA. The approach provided a transparent and structured framework for decision-making and incorporated both existing and new data to meet multiple management objectives. Success of the template has been evaluated by the stakeholder governing body in an adaptive resource management framework since 2005 and is ongoing. Consequences of management of discharge at the dam were evaluated annually relative to stakeholder satisfaction to allow for adjustment of both management scenarios and objectives. This template can be applied to attempt to resolve conflict inherent in many dam-regulated systems where management decisions impact diverse values of stakeholders.

Journal of Energy Challenges and Mechanics

Workshop: Nature-based solutions to ecological and economic problems caused by extreme precipitation events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate by using these natural solutions, however, they require accurate information about the projected increase in extreme rainfall events and the effectiveness and costs of a variety of solutions. To provide this information, researchers must understand the decisions that managers are making and the challenges they face. In this project, researchers will host a workshop to facilitate knowledge sharing between natural resource managers, climate modelers, and scientists studying natural solutions. Participants will discuss climate projections related to extreme precipitation events in the region, as well as the management implications and decision-making challenges associated with these events. These conversations will cultivate collaborative relationships between managers and researchers to address critical knowledge gaps and improve future management efforts in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

Upper Mississippi River basin

Networks - The assessment of marine reserve networks: Guidelines for ecological evaluation

As marine ecosystems are plagued by an ever-increasing suite of threats including climate change, pollution, habitat degradation, and fisheries impacts (Roessig et al ., 2004; Lotze et al ., 2006; Jackson, 2008), there are now no ocean areas that are exempt from anthropogenic impacts (Halpern et al ., 2008). In order to preserve marine biodiversity, ecosystem function, and the goods and services provided by resistant and/or resilient systems, marine reserves have been increasingly recommended as part of an ecosystem-based approach to management (Browman and Stergiou, 2004; Levin et al ., 2009). Marine reserves are defined as “areas of the ocean completely protected from all extractive and destructive activities” (Lubchenco et al ., 2003) and can be experimental controls for evaluating the impact of these activities on marine ecosystems. Growing scientific information has shown consistent increases in species density, biomass, size, and diversity in response to full protection inside reserves of varying sizes and ages located in diverse regions (Claudet et al ., 2008; Lester et al ., 2009; Molloy et al ., 2009). However, most of these data are from individual marine reserves and therefore have inherently limited transferability to networks of marine reserves, which when properly designed can outperform single marine reserves for a variety of ecological, economic, and social management goals (Roberts et al ., 2003; Almany et al ., 2009; Gaines et al ., 2010). The concept of marine reserve networks grew out of a desire to achieve both conservation and fishery management goals by minimizing the potential negative economic, social, and cultural impacts of a single large reserve while still producing similar or even greater ecological and economic returns (Murray et al ., 1999; Gaines et al ., 2010). In addition, reserves networks can provide insurance by protecting areas across a region and spreading the risk that these sites may be impacted by localized catastrophes such as hurricanes or oil spills (Allison et al ., 2003). The World Conservation Union's Marine Programme defines a network as “a collection of individual marine protected areas (MPAs) or reserves operating co-operatively and synergistically, at various spatial scales and with a range of protection levels that are designed to meet objectives that a single reserve cannot achieve” (IUCN–WCPA, 2008). However, general terms such as “co-operatively” and “synergistically” can have myriad meanings. Without a clear definition of a network, it becomes difficult to identify attainable management goals and design a process for evaluating whether the network achieves those goals. Besides, different management goals may in turn result in the need for different types of networks. The use of MPAs with varying protection levels together with no-take zones in multiple-zoning schemes adds another layer of complexity to network design and evaluation; however, partially protected areas are generally used to manage coastal uses and avoid conflicts (rather than for strict ecological purposes) and are therefore a function of the local social, economic, and cultural context. As we are here interested in the ecological effects of networks, for the purposes of this chapter, we focus on marine reserves because these areas are no-take and therefore offer greater ecological benefits than other types of MPAs that allow some forms of extraction (Lester and Halpern, 2008).

Book chapter