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Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model

This paper presents a fine-scale (30 meter resolution) regional land cover modeling system, based on the SLEUTH cellular automata model, that was developed for a 257000 km 2 area comprising the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin in the eastern United States. As part of this effort, we developed a new version of the SLEUTH model (SLEUTH-3r), which introduces new functionality and fit metrics that substantially increase the performance and applicability of the model. In addition, we developed methods that expand the capability of SLEUTH to incorporate economic, cultural and policy information, opening up new avenues for the integration of SLEUTH with other land-change models. SLEUTH-3r is also more computationally efficient (by a factor of 5) and uses less memory (reduced 65%) than the original software. With the new version of SLEUTH, we were able to achieve high accuracies at both the aggregate level of 15 sub-regional modeling units and at finer scales. We present forecasts to 2030 of urban development under a current trends scenario across the entire Chesapeake Bay drainage basin, and three alternative scenarios for a sub-region within the Chesapeake Bay watershed to illustrate the new ability of SLEUTH-3r to generate forecasts across a broad range of conditions.

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems

Obtaining maps and data from the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey produces a variety of resource information for the United States. This includes many data bases of particular interest to planners such as land use and terrain information prepared by the National Mapping Division, water quantity and quality data collected by Water Resources Division, and coal resource information gathered by the Geologic Division. These data are stored in various forms, and information on their availability can be obtained from appropriate offices in the U.S. Geological Survey as well as from USGS Circular 777. These data have been used for the management, development, and monitoring of our Nation's resources by Federal, State, and local agencies.

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems

Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems

Approaches to simulating the “March of Bricks and Mortar”

Re-creation of the extent of urban land use at different periods in time is valuable for examining how cities grow and how policy changes influence urban dynamics. To date, there has been little focus on the modeling of historical urban extent (other than for ancient cities). Instead, current modeling research has emphasized simulating the cities of the future. Predictive models can provide insights into urban growth processes and are valuable for land-use and urban planners, yet historical trends are largely ignored. This is unfortunate since historical data exist for urban areas and can be used to quantitatively test dynamic models and theory. We maintain that understanding the growth dynamics of a region's past allows more intelligent forecasts of its future. We compare using a spatio-temporal interpolation method with an agent-based simulation approach to recreate the urban extent of Santa Barbara, California, annually from 1929 to 2001. The first method uses current yet incomplete data on the construction of homes in the region. The latter uses a Cellular Automata based model, SLEUTH, to back- or hind-cast the urban extent. The success at historical urban growth reproduction of the two approaches used in this work was quantified for comparison. The performance of each method is described, as well as the utility of each model in re-creating the history of Santa Barbara. Additionally, the models’ assumptions about space are contrasted. As a consequence, we propose that both approaches are useful in historical urban simulations, yet the cellular approach is more flexible as it can be extended for spatio-temporal extrapolation.

California

Dynamic modeling of Tampa Bay urban development using parallel computing

Urban land use and land cover has changed significantly in the environs of Tampa Bay, Florida, over the past 50 years. Extensive urbanization has created substantial change to the region's landscape and ecosystems. This paper uses a dynamic urban-growth model, SLEUTH, which applies six geospatial data themes (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, hillside), to study the process of urbanization and associated land use and land cover change in the Tampa Bay area. To reduce processing time and complete the modeling process within an acceptable period, the model is recoded and ported to a Beowulf cluster. The parallel-processing computer system accomplishes the massive amount of computation the modeling simulation requires. SLEUTH calibration process for the Tampa Bay urban growth simulation spends only 10 h CPU time. The model predicts future land use/cover change trends for Tampa Bay from 1992 to 2025. Urban extent is predicted to double in the Tampa Bay watershed between 1992 and 2025. Results show an upward trend of urbanization at the expense of a decline of 58% and 80% in agriculture and forested lands, respectively.

Computers & Geosciences

Real-time piscicide tracking using Rhodamine WT dye for support of application, transport, and deactivation strategies in riverine environments

Piscicide applications in riverine environments are complicated by the advection and dispersion of the piscicide by the flowing water. Proper deactivation of the fish toxin is required outside of the treatment reach to ensure that there is minimal collateral damage to fisheries downstream or in connecting and adjacent water bodies. In urban settings and highly managed waterways, further complications arise from the influence of industrial intakes and outfalls, stormwater outfalls, lock and dam operations, and general unsteady flow conditions. These complications affect the local hydrodynamics and ultimately the transport and fate of the piscicide. This report presents two techniques using Rhodamine WT dye for real-time tracking of a piscicide plume—or any passive contaminant—in rivers and waterways in natural and urban settings. Passive contaminants are those that are present in such low concentration that there is no effect (such as buoyancy) on the fluid dynamics of the receiving water body. These methods, when combined with data logging and archiving, allow for visualization and documentation of the application and deactivation process. Real-time tracking and documentation of rotenone applications in rivers and urban waterways was accomplished by encasing the rotenone plume in a plume of Rhodamine WT dye and using vessel-mounted submersible fluorometers together with acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) and global positioning system (GPS) receivers to track the dye and map the water currents responsible for advection and dispersion. In this study, two methods were used to track rotenone plumes: (1) simultaneous injection of dye with rotenone and (2) delineation of the upstream and downstream boundaries of the treatment zone with dye. All data were logged and displayed on a shipboard laptop computer, so that survey personnel provided real-time feedback about the extent of the rotenone plume to rotenone application and deactivation personnel. Further, these strategies facilitate adjustment of rotenone application and deactivation strategies in real time if necessary based on the observed advection and dispersion of the rotenone plume. Two large-scale and complex applications of rotenone in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) in 2009 and 2010 to combat invasive Asian carp are documented in this report. The application in Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) in December 2009 involved more than 1,800 gallons of rotenone injected at multiple stations through a 6.2-mile reach of the canal near Lockport, Illinois. The rotenone plume was encased in Rhodamine WT dye so that two survey boats provided real-time feedback to shore personnel regarding the plume extent as it advected downstream. Real-time tracking of the rotenone was essential in this large-scale application because of the multistage injection strategy and the numerous deactivation points required to minimize collateral damage to fisheries in surrounding and receiving water bodies. All timing of application and deactivation operations relied on dye tracking. A second application of rotenone in May 2010 to the Little Calumet River near O’Brien Lock and Dam (Illinois) provided another opportunity for dye-tracking support operations; however, application and deactivation strategies were designed considering zero-flow conditions within the reach of interest. Therefore, dye was injected at the upstream and downstream boundaries of the rotenone application reach and was used to track movement of water in and out of a treatment reach, allowing proper deactivation to occur and avoiding unnecessary damage to fisheries downstream. The data collected during the real-time tracking operations for both applications allowed full documentation of the rotenone treatment for archival purposes and provided information for future applications. The methods presented in this report for real-time tracking and documentation of piscicide applications in riverine environments worked exceptionally well and allowed the multiagency Asian Carp Rapid Response Workgroup to carry out large-scale rotenone applications in urban waterways in an environmentally responsible manner with minimal collateral damage to fisheries outside the treatment reach. Traveltime information extracted from the boat-mounted and fixed-position fluorometers agrees well with empirical predictions from a preliminary dye study (mock rotenone injection) on this system completed in November 2009 on the CSSC and with previously published methods for estimating traveltimes of the peak, leading edge, and trailing edge of the plume. Although the rotenone application strategy called for zero-flow conditions on the Little Calumet River in 2010, downstream advection of treated water did occur, and dye tracing combined with velocity mapping allowed this advection to be documented and exposed the unique hydrodynamics and mixing within this reach. The large volumes of data collected during the operations allow documentation and visualization of the rotenone applications, thus providing feedback to planners and archival of the treatments for future reference. The methods developed in this report are directly transferrable to piscicide applications in water bodies in other locations, including rivers, ponds, or lakes, and can be used for real-time tracking of any passive contaminant that may enter a water body.

Illinois

Organic contaminants in Great Lakes tributaries: Prevalence and potential aquatic toxicity

Organic compounds used in agriculture, industry, and households make their way into surface waters through runoff, leaking septic-conveyance systems, regulated and unregulated discharges, and combined sewer overflows, among other sources. Concentrations of these organic waste compounds (OWCs) in some Great Lakes tributaries indicate a high potential for adverse impacts on aquatic organisms. During 2010&ndash;13, 709 water samples were collected at 57 tributaries, together representing approximately 41% of the total inflow to the lakes. Samples were collected during runoff and low-flow conditions and analyzed for 69 OWCs, including herbicides, insecticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, plasticizers, antioxidants, detergent metabolites, fire retardants, non-prescription human drugs, flavors/fragrances, and dyes. Urban-related land cover characteristics were the most important explanatory variables of concentrations of many OWCs. Compared to samples from nonurban watersheds (< 15% urban land cover) samples from urban watersheds (> 15% urban land cover) had nearly four times the number of detected compounds and four times the total sample concentration, on average. Concentration differences between runoff and low-flow conditions were not observed, but seasonal differences were observed in atrazine, metolachlor, DEET, and HHCB concentrations. Water quality benchmarks for individual OWCs were exceeded at 20 sites, and at 7 sites benchmarks were exceeded by a factor of 10 or more. The compounds with the most frequent water quality benchmark exceedances were the PAHs benzo[ a ]pyrene, pyrene, fluoranthene, and anthracene, the detergent metabolite 4-nonylphenol, and the herbicide atrazine. Computed estradiol equivalency quotients (EEQs) using only nonsteroidal endocrine-active compounds indicated medium to high risk of estrogenic effects (intersex or vitellogenin induction) at 10 sites. EEQs at 3 sites were comparable to values reported in effluent. This multifaceted study is the largest, most comprehensive assessment of the occurrence and potential effects of OWCs in the Great Lakes Basin to date.

Great Lakes

Characterization and occurrence of confined and unconfined aquifers in Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States

The glacial aquifer system, which is a collection of aquifers within Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States, is a principal aquifer that supplies groundwater that serves about 42 million people and accounts for about 5 percent of the Nation’s drinking water. This aquifer system (the area of maximum glacial advance) underlies parts of 25 States and covers 1.87×10 6 square kilometers. A hydrogeologic framework is presented that divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping. Each hydrogeologic terrane contains Quaternary sediment that is derived from a common depositional history and can be characterized by similar texture and thickness. Characteristics of Quaternary sediments are described using attributes computed from a lithologic database of well logs compiled from 24 States (excluding Kentucky). The hydrogeologic framework presents a nationwide picture of the glacial aquifer system and provides generalizations concerning the nature of aquifers within it (for example, whether the aquifers are shallow or deep, and unconfined or confined). In this way insights can be gained from understanding the similarities and differences in distinct parts of the glacial aquifer system and how they relate to water use and quality and to aquifer vulnerability. Delineation of hydrogeologic terranes was based on an interpretation of existing geologic mapping of Quaternary sediments and the thickness of unconsolidated material. Overall thickness of Quaternary sediment was used to qualitatively rank the generalized complexity of the hydrogeologic framework in each terrane: “lower” complexity (assigned a terrane code 1), “moderate” complexity (terrane code 2), and “higher” complexity (terrane code 3). Letter designations appended to the terrane codes (for example, 1A, 1B, or 1C) differentiate terranes of similar complexity. Two unique areas, where thick, stratified, coarse-grained sediment dominates, were assigned terrane code 4. Elements of this hydrogeologic framework include a glacial environments and surficial sediments geodatabase, which includes lithologic, geomorphic, and stratigraphic characterization of Quaternary sediments based on previous mapping; a gridded database of sediment and aquifer characteristics computed from lithologic logs obtained from water-well driller records; a water-use database with information on public-water supply systems and sources of groundwater; and estimated recharge computed from a geologically based soil-water balance model. A generalized map of the bedrock geology based on previous State-level mapping is included as well. Quaternary sediment in the glaciated United States includes glacial, postglacial (Holocene) and nonglacial sediments. At land surface, 60 percent of the glacial sediment is till. Large areas of outwash and ice contact sediments are extensive throughout the Midwest but generally are confined to valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lacustrine sediments were deposited in proglacial lakes adjacent to the present Great Lakes and in glacial Lake Agassiz in the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota. The median thickness of Quaternary sediment ranges from 6 to 45 meters across the 17 hydrogeologic terranes, but the maximum thickness is more than 500 meters in some areas. Quaternary sediments generally contain less than 10 percent coarse material; the median range is near zero percent under till to about 50 percent under ice contact and outwash sediments. About 80 percent of the coarse material lies within 25 to 40 meters of land surface. In most of the glaciated United States, there is a small likelihood of penetrating an aquifer-material interval containing coarse material at least 3 meters thick. A single aquifer-material interval was recorded in about 44 percent of lithologic logs, whereas about 11 percent of the logs penetrated multiple intervals. About 44 percent of water wells in the lithologic database are completed in Quaternary sediment, and many of these Quaternary water wells (42 percent) are confined by at least 7.5 meters of fine materials. About 33 percent of these Quaternary water wells are unconfined—the remainder are where only thin layers (less than 3 meters) of coarse material are present. The median depths of Quaternary water wells range from 13 to 40 meters among the 17 hydrogeologic terranes. Recharge ranges from more than 400 millimeters per year in the Northeast to 11 millimeters or less per year in the Dakotas and Montana (median value of 136 millimeters per year). Annual groundwater withdrawals compiled by county range on an areal basis from less than 1 to 370 millimeters per year, and the mean is 7.4 millimeters per year. About 36 percent of the withdrawals are for public-water supply, of which 70 percent are derived from Quaternary sediments. Groundwater withdrawals are less than 10 percent of recharge throughout most of the glaciated conterminous United States but are a larger proportion of recharge near urban areas in the Northeast and the Midwest, and in counties throughout drier parts of the Midwest. The salient characteristics of the 17 hydrogeologic terranes are presented through maps and a set of descriptive plots to facilitate visual comparisons between selected sediment and aquifer characteristics. The thickness of Quaternary sediment generally increases from the lower complexity terranes through the higher complexity terranes, consistent with their delineation. Median proportions of coarse material in Quaternary sediment and depths to aquifer-material intervals are highly variable (less than 10 to 50 percent, and 0 to 30 meters, respectively). Median thicknesses of aquifer-material intervals generally fall within a narrow range (10 to 20 meters), except in two terranes that contain thick coarse-grained sediment (30 to 35 meters). The source of water in wells varies from mostly bedrock wells in the lower complexity terranes to mostly Quaternary wells in the higher complexity terranes where the sediment is thickest. A tree diagram compiled from a hierarchical cluster analysis of a matrix composed of metrics based on sediment and aquifer characteristics, and the distribution of water wells in each terrane, indicates some groups of terranes that can be treated as comparable when analyzing groundwater flow and quality. Aquifer-material intervals indicated on maps prepared from the lithologic logs, including unconfined and confined conditions, correlate well with aquifer systems delineated on state maps for Illinois, Indiana, and North Dakota. The large scale of the study limits the resolution at which the maps can be interpreted, however, and alluvial units are not mapped correctly for some valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lithologic logs used in the study are biased toward shallow depths because not all logs penetrate the entire thickness of Quaternary sediment, but this bias should not limit the utility of the sediment and aquifer descriptions because shallow depths are commonly exploited for water supply. The hydrogeologic framework will support ongoing studies of groundwater flow and quality in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment program for the glaciated United States.

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluation of a mass-balance approach to determine consumptive water use in northeastern Illinois

A principal component of evaluating and managing water use is consumptive use. This is the portion of water withdrawn for a particular use, such as residential, which is evaporated, transpired, incorporated into products or crops, consumed by humans or livestock, or otherwise removed from the immediate water environment. The amount of consumptive use may be estimated by a water (mass)-balance approach; however, because of the difficulty of obtaining necessary data, its application typically is restricted to the facility scale. The general governing mass-balance equation is: Consumptive use = Water supplied - Return flows . This study explored a mass-balance field-based computation of consumptive use in a residential setting at the scale of a sanitary sewer service area (sewershed). In addition, the feasibility (cost and difficulty) and relative uncertainties (accuracies) associated with applying the approach at this scale were evaluated. The study was conducted during 2011&ndash;13 within a 3.5-square mile (mi 2 ) sewershed confined to a predominantly residential area of Elk Grove Village, Illinois. Following background evaluation of the geohydrologic setting, sewershed infrastructure, and possible components of supplied and returned water, the identified primary components were 1. public water deliveries by the Elk Grove Village Department of Public Works, 2. self-served groundwater withdrawals in an included unincorporated neighborhood with public sanitary sewer service, 3. return flows to the sanitary sewer system, and 4. direct return of water discharged from swimming pools to Salt Creek. Water volumes principally were reported for deliveries, measured for sanitary sewer returns by using an acoustic Doppler current-velocity meter, and estimated for domestic withdrawals and swimming pool discharges to storm sewers. All water volumes required some degree of estimation. Observation wells were installed adjacent to sewer pipelines (lines) to determine the depth of the water table relative to that of the sewer lines and to collect water samples for detection of optical brighteners, as they are routinely discharged as clotheswashing waste to sanitary sewers. These data provided qualitative information on gains (inflow and infiltration) and losses (exfiltration) of sewer flow by pipe leakage, which might otherwise not be considered in the sewer flow return measurements. Hydrographs of sewer flow also were evaluated to identify and estimate storm-associated inputs to sewer flow. The volume of sanitary sewer return flow (778 million gallons per year [Mgal/yr]) was determined to substantially exceed the volume of supplied water (566 Mgal/yr), thus, for this study setting, voiding the utility of the applied mass-balance approach for estimating consumptive water use. Mass-balance components, including sanitary sewer flow and supplied-water use, were estimated within reasonable limits of uncertainty. Evidence of a water table that is typically shallower than the area&rsquo;s sewer lines, yet is sometimes depressed near more deeply buried sewer lines, suggests groundwater infiltration into the sewers contributes to the excess volume of return flow. Technical obstacles and project resources precluded accurate quantification of infiltration volumes and other gains and losses to sanitary sewer flow. As estimated from various simplified methods, a minimum of 26 percent of return flow measured in the sanitary sewer represented groundwater infiltration and stormwater inflow; separately, about 2 percent of return flow was estimated as inflow. On the basis of the alternative winter base-rate method, consumptive use in the sewershed was estimated as 13 percent, which compares favorably with that used by the State of Illinois for Lake Michigan allocation accounting (10 percent) and other States and Canadian Provinces in the Great Lakes region (generally 10-15 percent). The study also provided other findings considered useful to studies of water use and to performance evaluation of sanitary sewer infrastructure. In urban residential settings, the comparatively small volumes of nonpublic sources of water (self-supplied) and direct (nonsanitary) return flow potentially can be ignored in the estimation of consumptive use. An acoustic Doppler current-velocity meter can be used in sanitary sewers to accurately measure discharge and reasonably estimate storm-associated inflows. Hourly to daily patterns of water use can be readily identified and quantified in the return flow record for the sanitary sewers. Relative volumes of infiltration gains (and exfiltration losses) can be substantial, even in sewer systems of communities making significant investments in system upgrades to limit sewer line leakage. Monitoring of optical brighteners in groundwater (and potentially in sanitary sewer flow) can provide a useful means of identifying probable leakage from (and to) sewer lines. Accurate quantification of gains and losses to sanitary sewer flow at the sewershed scale will require additional research effort and technical advances. Under ideal conditions, accurate quantification of consumptive use at the sewershed scale by the described mass-balance approach might be possible. Under most prevailing conditions, quantification likely would be more costly and time consuming than that of the present study, given the freely contributed technical support of the host community and relatively appropriate conditions of the study area. Essentials to quantification of consumptive use are a fully cooperative community, storm and sanitary sewers that are separate, and newer sewer infrastructure and (or) a robust program for limiting infiltration, exfiltration, and inflow.

Illinois

Spatial and temporal patterns in streamflow, water chemistry, and aquatic macroinvertebrates of selected streams in Fairfax County, Virginia, 2007–18

Urbanization substantially alters the landscape in ways that can impact stream hydrology, water chemistry, and the health of aquatic communities. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) are the primary tools used to mitigate the effects of urban stressors such as increased runoff, decreased baseflow, and increased nutrient and sediment transport. To date, Fairfax County Virginia’s stormwater management program has made substantial investments into the implementation of both structural and nonstructural BMPs aimed at restoring and protecting watersheds. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Fairfax County, Virginia, established a long-term water-resources monitoring program to evaluate the watershed-scale effects of these investments. Monitoring began at 14 stations in 2007 and was expanded to 20 stations in 2013. This report utilized the first 10 years of data collection to (1) assess water quantity and quality, as well as ecological condition; (2) compute annual nutrient and sediment loads; and (3) evaluate trends in streamflow, water quality, and ecological condition. Efforts are underway to link the biotic and abiotic patterns described herein to watershed management practices as well as factors such as land use change, public works infrastructure, and climate. Hydrologic, chemical, and benthic macroinvertebrate community conditions in the streams monitored were similar to those observed in other studies of urban streams. Multidecadal trends in baseflow indices and runoff ratios at long-term Chesapeake Bay Non-tidal Network streamgages (CB-NTN) indicate a decrease in groundwater recharge and increase in storm runoff as a result of urbanization. Streamflow yields varied spatially with land cover, geology, and soil characteristics, whereas flashiness was positively related to impervious area. Dissolved oxygen typically was lowest in the Coastal Plain and across all Triassic Lowlands streams, and highest in the Piedmont. Dissolved oxygen concentrations generally were above Virginia’s minimum criterion of 4.0 milligrams per liter (mg/L), most violations occurred at Paul Spring Branch in the Coastal Plain during the warmest months of the year owing to increased chemical and biological oxygen demand. Typical pH values of the monitored streams centered on neutrality (pH = 7); however, diurnal fluctuations were most prevalent in the continuous pH data at Flatlick Branch (FLAT; a Triassic Lowlands station), as a result of increased photosynthesis catalyzed by phosphorus-rich geology. Specific conductance (SC) varied spatially owing to geology (highest at Triassic Lowlands stations) and anthropogenic disturbance (watersheds with high impervious land cover). Specific conductance typically was inversely related to streamflow except in winter months following deicing road salt applications, when values increased by several orders of magnitude. A significant increase in SC of about 2 percent per year was observed from the combined trend result of all monitoring stations over the 10-year period. Significant SC increases occurred at nearly all monitoring stations. Increasing trends were observed during winter and nonwinter months, which suggests that salts applied to deice roadways and other impervious surfaces are stored in the environment and released year-round. Suspended-sediment (SS) concentrations in monthly samples did not vary significantly between most stations, but typically were highest in the spring and lowest in the fall as a result of seasonal differences in streamflow and climate. Suspended-sediment yields ranged from 62 to 1,428 tons per square mile (ton/mi 2 ), with a median of 302 ton/mi 2 . Annual loads were greatest during the wettest water years (October 1-September 30; 2008, 2011, and 2014), with the greatest interannual variability occurring at Difficult Run above Fox Lake (DIFF) and South Fork Little Difficult Run (SFLIL). Suspended sediment was primarily composed of silts and clays; however, the proportion of sand in suspended sediment was related positively to streamflow. Cross-correlation analyses suggested the dominant sources of SS were streambank erosion and resuspension of in-channel material at DIFF and FLAT; whereas, upland sources and erosion of upper streambanks were more common at Dead Run (DEAD), Long Branch (LONG), and SFLIL. Median total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranged from 0.016 to 0.077 mg/L, with a networkwide median of 0.022 mg/L, were highest in the warm season (April-September), and were composed primarily of dissolved phosphorous. Although TP concentrations were relatively low across the network, the highest concentrations were consistently at stations located in the Triassic Lowlands, owing to phosphorous-rich geology, and in the Coastal Plain, owing to the low-phosphorous sorptive capacity of those soils. A significant increase in TP concentration occurred in a few stations, but the combined trend results from all stations demonstrated a significant increase of about 4 percent per year. Networkwide increases were also observed in total dissolved phosphorus, orthophosphate, and total particulate phosphorus. The composition of TP shifted from dissolved to particulate as streamflow increased and for this reason loads primarily were composed of particulate phosphorous. Median annual TP loads were highest at FLAT and DEAD and ranged from 247 to 642 pounds per square mile (lbs/mi 2 ) networkwide. Interannual variability in phosphorous yields was apparent at most stations; the highest loading years were also the wettest years during the study period and coincident with the highest peak annual flows. Total nitrogen (TN) concentrations typically were low throughout the network with exceptions occurring at stations located in watersheds with a high density of septic infrastructure. Elevated TN concentrations also were observed in some watersheds without a high density of septic systems and may be attributable to geologic and soil properties that limit denitrification as well as other unknown anthropogenic inputs. Total nitrogen typically was dominated by nitrate during baseflows; however, the proportion of particulate nitrogen increased during stormflows. Total nitrogen yields were similar across stations, with medians ranging from about 3,600 to 6,300 lbs/mi 2 and were related to annual streamflow volume. Total nitrogen concentrations and flow-normalized concentrations decreased over the 10-year period at 7 stations, with median reductions of about 2.5 percent. Increasing trends were observed at the two stations with the highest median TN concentration (Captain Hickory Run and SFLIL, 3–5 mg/L), both watersheds contain a high density of septic infrastructure. The combined trend results from all stations revealed no trend in TN and a declining trend in nitrate of about 2 percent per year. Overall, benthic community metrics indicated that streams throughout Fairfax County were initially of poor health; however, many metrics show an improving trend (from poor to fair based on the Fairfax County Index of Biological Integrity [IBI]). Significant increasing trends in IBI occurred at the network-scale and at 4 individual stations; additionally, scores improved by at least 1 qualitative category (for example, poor to fair, fair to good) at 11 of the 14 stations between 2009 (the first year all 14 stations were sampled) and 2017. Changes in all metrics suggest that the biodiversity, function, and condition of streams in Fairfax County are improving, but some of these improvements are driven by increased diversity and percent composition of organisms that are tolerant of the urban environment.

Virginia