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Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends
We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.
Spatiotemporal variation of surface shortwave forcing from fire-induced albedo change in interior Alaska
The albedo change caused by both fires and subsequent succession is spatially heterogeneous, leading to the need to assess the spatiotemporal variation of surface shortwave forcing (SSF) as a component to quantify the climate impacts of high-latitude fires. We used an image reconstruction approach to compare postfire albedo with the albedo assuming fires had not occurred. Combining the fire-caused albedo change from the 2001-2010 fires in interior Alaska and the monthly surface incoming solar radiation, we examined the spatiotemporal variation of SSF in the early successional stage of around 10 years. Our results showed that while postfire albedo generally increased in fall, winter, and spring, some burned areas could show an albedo decrease during these seasons. In summer, the albedo increased for several years and then declined again. The spring SSF distribution did not show a latitudinal decrease from south to north as previously reported. The results also indicated that although the SSF is usually largely negative in the early successional years, it may not be significant during the first postfire year. The annual 2005-2010 SSF for the 2004 fire scars was -1.30, -4.40, -3.31, -4.00, -3.42, and -2.47 Wm-2. The integrated annual SSF map showed significant spatial variation with a mean of -3.15 Wm-2 and a standard deviation of 3.26 Wm-2, 16% of burned areas having positive SSF. Our results suggest that boreal deciduous fires would be less positive for climate change than boreal evergreen fires. Future research is needed to comprehensively investigate the spatiotemporal radiative and non-radiative forcings to determine the effect of boreal fires on climate.
Foreword: The dynamics of change in Alaska’s boreal forests: Resilience and vulnerability in response to climate warming
Long-term research by the Bonanza Creek (BNZ) Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has documented natural patterns of interannual and successional variability of the boreal forest in interior Alaska against which we can detect changes in system behavior. Between 2004 and 2010 the BNZ LTER program focused on understanding the dynamics of change through studying the resilience and vulnerability of Alaska's boreal forest in response to climate warming. The overarching question in this endeavor has been “How are boreal ecosystems responding, both gradually and abruptly, to climate warming, and what new landscape patterns are emerging?”
The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system
In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.
Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes
Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.
Thinning increases climatic resilience of red pine
Forest management techniques such as intermediate stand-tending practices (e.g., thinning) can promote climatic resiliency in forest stands by moderating tree competition. Residual trees gain increased access to environmental resources (i.e., soil moisture, light), which in turn has the potential to buffer trees from stressful climatic conditions. The influences of climate (temperature and precipitation) and forest management (thinning method and intensity) on the productivity of red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) in Michigan were examined to assess whether repeated thinning treatments were able to increase climatic resiliency (i.e., maintaining productivity and reduced sensitivity to climatic stress). The cumulative productivity of each thinning treatment was determined, and it was found that thinning from below to a residual basal area of 14 m 2 ·ha −1 produced the largest average tree size but also the second lowest overall biomass per acre. On the other hand, the uncut control and the thinning from above to a residual basal area of 28 m 2 ·ha −1 produced the smallest average tree size but also the greatest overall biomass per acre. Dendrochronological methods were used to quantify sensitivity of annual radial growth to monthly and seasonal climatic factors for each thinning treatment type. Climatic sensitivity was influenced by thinning method (i.e., thinning from below decreased sensitivity to climatic stress more than thinning from above) and by thinning intensity (i.e., more intense thinning led to a lower climatic sensitivity). Overall, thinning from below to a residual basal area of 21 m 2 ·ha −1 represented a potentially beneficial compromise to maximize tree size, biomass per acre, and reduced sensitivity to climatic stress, and, thus, the highest level of climatic resilience.
Influence of stocking, site quality, stand age, low-severity canopy disturbance, and forest composition on sub-boreal aspen mixedwood carbon stocks
Low-severity canopy disturbance presumably influences forest carbon dynamics during the course of stand development, yet the topic has received relatively little attention. This is surprising because of the frequent occurrence of such events and the potential for both the severity and frequency of disturbances to increase as a result of climate change. We investigated the impacts of low-severity canopy disturbance and average insect defoliation on forest carbon stocks and rates of carbon sequestration in mature aspen mixedwood forests of varying stand age (ranging from 61 to 85 years), overstory composition, stocking level, and site quality. Stocking level and site quality positively affected the average annual aboveground tree carbon increment (C AAI ), while stocking level, site quality, and stand age positively affected tree carbon stocks (C TREE ) and total ecosystem carbon stocks (C TOTAL ). Cumulative canopy disturbance (DIST) was reconstructed using dendroecological methods over a 29-year period. DIST was negatively and significantly related to soil carbon (C SOIL ), and it was negatively, albeit marginally, related to C TOTAL . Minima in the annual aboveground carbon increment of trees (C AI ) occurred at sites during defoliation of aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) by forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hubner), and minima were more extreme at sites dominated by trembling aspen than sites mixed with conifers. At sites defoliated by forest tent caterpillar in the early 2000s, increased sequestration by the softwood component ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill. and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) compensated for overall decreases in C AI by 17% on average. These results underscore the importance of accounting for low-severity canopy disturbance events when developing regional forest carbon models and argue for the restoration and maintenance of historically important conifer species within aspen mixedwoods to enhance stand-level resilience to disturbance agents and maintain site-level carbon stocks.
Response of plant community structure and primary productivity to experimental drought and flooding in an Alaskan fen
Northern peatlands represent a long-term net sink for atmospheric CO 2 , but these ecosystems can shift from net carbon (C) sinks to sources based on changing climate and environmental conditions. In particular, changes in water availability associated with climate control peatland vegetation and carbon uptake processes. We examined the influence of changing hydrology on plant species abundance and ecosystem primary production in an Alaskan fen by manipulating the water table in field treatments to mimic either sustained flooding (raised water table) or drought (lowered water table) conditions for 6 years. We found that water table treatments altered plant species abundance by increasing sedge and grass cover in the raised water table treatment and reducing moss cover while increasing vascular green area in the lowered water table treatment. Gross primary productivity was lower in the lowered treatment than in the other plots, although there were no differences in total biomass or vascular net primary productivity among the treatments. Overall, our results indicate that vegetation abundance was more sensitive to variation in water table than total biomass and vascular biomass accrual. Finally, in our experimental peatland, drought had stronger consequences for change in vegetation abundance and ecosystem function than sustained flooding.
An individual-based growth and competition model for coastal redwood forest restoration
Thinning treatments to accelerate coastal redwood forest stand development are in wide application, but managers have yet to identify prescriptions that might best promote Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl. (redwood) growth. The creation of successful thinning prescriptions would be aided by identifying the underlying mechanisms governing how individual tree growth responds to competitive environments in coastal redwood forests. We created a spatially explicit individual-based model of tree competition and growth parameterized using surveys of upland redwood forests at Redwood National Park, California. We modeled competition for overstory trees (stems ≥ 20 cm stem diameter at breast height, 1.37 m (dbh)) as growth reductions arising from sizes, distances, and species identity of competitor trees. Our model explained up to half of the variation in individual tree growth, suggesting that neighborhood crowding is an important determinant of growth in this forest type. We used our model to simulate the effects of novel thinning prescriptions (e.g., 40% stand basal area removal) for redwood forest restoration, concluding that these treatments could lead to substantial growth releases, particularly for S. sempervirens . The results of this study, along with continued improvements to our model, will help to determine spacing and species composition that best encourage growth.
Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate
Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth–mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.
The influence of prefire tree growth and crown condition on postfire mortality of sugar pine following prescribed fire in Sequoia National Park
Tree mortality is a vital component of forest management in the context of prescribed fires; however, few studies have examined the effect of prefire tree health on postfire mortality. This is especially relevant for sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana Douglas), a species experiencing population declines due to a suite of anthropogenic factors. Using data from an old-growth mixed-conifer forest in Sequoia National Park, we evaluated the effects of fire, tree size, prefire radial growth, and crown condition on postfire mortality. Models based only on tree size and measures of fire damage were compared with models that included tree size, fire damage, and prefire tree health (e.g., measures of prefire tree radial growth or crown condition). Immediately following the fire, the inclusion of different metrics of prefire tree health produced variable improvements over the models that included only tree size and measures of fire damage, as models that included measures of crown condition performed better than fire-only models, but models that included measures of prefire radial growth did not perform better. However, 5 years following the fire, sugar pine mortality was best predicted by models that included measures of both fire damage and prefire tree health, specifically, diameter at breast height (DBH, 1.37 m), crown scorch, 30-year mean growth, and the number of sharp declines in growth over a 30-year period. This suggests that factors that influence prefire tree health (e.g., drought, competition, pathogens, etc.) may partially determine postfire mortality, especially when accounting for delayed mortality following fire.
Influence of hydrologic modifications on Fraxinus pennsylvanica in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, USA
We used tree-ring analysis to examine radial growth response of a common, moderately flood-tolerant species (<i>Fraxinus pennsylvanica</i> Marshall) to hydrologic and climatic variability for > 40 years before and after hydrologic modifications affecting two forest stands in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (USA): a stand without levees below dams and a stand within a ring levee. At the stand without levees below dams, spring flood stages decreased and overall growth increased after dam construction, which we attribute to a reduction in flood stress. At the stand within a ring levee, growth responded to the elimination of overbank flooding by shifting from being positively correlated with river stage to not being correlated with river stage. In general, growth in swales was positively correlated with river stage and Palmer Drought Severity Index (an index of soil moisture) for longer periods than flats. Growth decreased after levee construction, but swales were less impacted than flats likely because of differences in elevation and soils provide higher soil moisture. Results of this study indicate that broad-scale hydrologic processes differ in their effects on the flood regime, and the effects on growth of moderately flood-tolerant species such as <i>F. pennsylvanica</i> can be mediated by local-scale factors such as topographic position, which affects soil moisture.
Mapping site index and volume increment from forest inventory, Landsat, and ecological variables in Tahoe National Forest, California, USA
High-resolution site index (SI) and mean annual increment (MAI) maps are desired for local forest management. We integrated field inventory, Landsat, and ecological variables to produce 30 m SI and MAI maps for the Tahoe National Forest (TNF) where different tree species coexist. We converted species-specific SI using adjustment factors. Then, the SI map was produced by ( i ) intensifying plots to expand the training sets to more climatic, topographic, soil, and forest reflective classes, ( ii ) using results from a stepwise regression to enable a weighted imputation that minimized the effects of outlier plots within classes, and ( iii ) local interpolation and strata median filling to assign values to pixels without direct imputations. The SI (reference age is 50 years) map had an R 2 of 0.7637, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 3.60, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.07 m. The MAI map was similarly produced with an R 2 of 0.6882, an RMSE of 1.73, and a MAE of 1.20 m 3 ·ha −1 ·year −1 . Spatial patterns and trends of SI and MAI were analyzed to be related to elevation, aspect, slope, soil productivity, and forest type. The 30 m SI and MAI maps can be used to support decisions on fire, plantation, biodiversity, and carbon.
Integrating forest inventory data and MODIS data to map species-level biomass in Chinese boreal forests
Timely and accurate knowledge of species-level biomass is essential for forest managers to sustain forest resources and respond to various forest disturbance regimes. In this study, maps of species-level biomass in Chinese boreal forests were generated by integrating Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images with forest inventory data using k nearest neighbor ( k NN) methods and evaluated at different scales. The performance of 630 k NN models based on different distance metrics, k values, and temporal MODIS predictor variables were compared. Random Forest (RF) showed the best performance among the six distance metrics: RF, Euclidean distance, Mahalanobis distance, most similar neighbor in canonical correlation space, most similar neighbor computed using projection pursuit, and gradient nearest neighbor. No appreciable improvement was observed using multi-month MODIS data compared with using single-month MODIS data. At the pixel scale, species-level biomass for larch and white birch had relatively good accuracy (root mean square deviation < 62.1%), while the other species had poorer accuracy. The accuracy of most species except for willow and spruce was improved up to the ecoregion scale. The maps of species-level biomass captured the effects of disturbances including fire and harvest and can provide useful information for broad-scale forest monitoring over time.
Stand density, drought, and herbivory constrain ponderosa pine regeneration pulse
Trees in dry forests often regenerate in episodic pulses when wet periods coincide with ample seed production. Factors leading to success or failure of regeneration pulses are poorly understood. We investigated the impacts of stand thinning on survival and growth of the 2013 cohort of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. Lawson & C. Lawson) seedlings in northern Arizona, United States. We measured seedling survival and growth over the first five growing seasons after germination in six stand basal areas (BAs; 0, 7, 14, 23, 34, and 66 (unthinned) m 2 ·ha −1 ) produced by long-term experimental thinnings. Five-year survival averaged 2.5% and varied among BAs. Mean survival duration was longer in intermediate BAs (11 to 16 months) than in clearings and high BAs (5 months). The BAs of 7, 14, and 23 m 2 ·ha −1 had >2600 5-year-old seedlings·ha −1 . In contrast, regeneration was lower in the clearing (666 seedlings·ha −1 ) and failed completely in the 34 m 2 ·ha −1 and unthinned treatments. Seedling survival was highest during wet years and lowest during drought years. Many surviving seedlings had no net height growth between years 4 and 5 because of stem browsing. Results indicate that natural regeneration of ponderosa pine is influenced by stand BA, drought, herbivory, and interactions between extreme climatic events.
Can’t see the flowers for the trees: Factors driving floral abundance within early-successional forests in the central Appalachian Mountains
Silviculture can be a powerful tool for restoring and enhancing habitat for forest-dependent wildlife. In eastern North America, regenerating timber harvests support abundant wildflowers that provide essential forage for native pollinators. Factors driving floral resource availability within regenerating forests remain almost entirely unstudied. Recent efforts to increase the area of regenerating forests (<10 years old) through overstory removal harvest in the central Appalachian Mountains provide an opportunity to investigate the development of forest wildflower communities following canopy removal. We conducted 1208 surveys of blooming plants across 143 harvests, recording 1 525 245 flowers representing 220 taxa spanning 47 families. The number of flowers within recently harvested stands was negatively associated with fern and sapling cover but positively associated with grass and bramble ( Rubus spp.) cover. Early in the growing season, more flowers bloomed in older regenerating stands (e.g., >5 years old), but this pattern reversed by the end of the growing season. Ultimately, our study demonstrates that the abundance of flowers available to pollinators within regenerating hardwood stands varies with factors associated with advancing succession. Recognizing the potential trade-off between woody regeneration (i.e., saplings) and pollinator forage availability may benefit forest managers who intend to provide floral resources to flower-dependent wildlife like pollinators via silviculture.
Complex interactions of deer herbivory, soil chemistry, and competing vegetation explain oak–hickory forest tree regeneration in central Pennsylvania, USA
The root causes of forest tree regeneration failure are difficult to resolve, although numerous studies show ungulate herbivory, soil conditions, and competition from undesirable vegetation as likely contributors. To better understand the relative importance of each issue, we conducted a 7-year manipulative experiment to assess the interactive effects of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) herbivory, soil acidity, and competing vegetation on tree regeneration in oak–hickory forests of central Pennsylvania, USA. Outcomes depended on initial tree seedling abundance, and all three factors had significant interactions. At low initial seedling abundance, fencing resulted in the greatest increase, but all treatments had a positive effect on seedling growth and abundance. At higher initial seedling abundance, abundance failed to recover 7 years after herbicide treatment and soil pH was an important predictor. When soil pH was >4.6 from lime application, seedling growth and abundance in unfenced controls with high initial abundance was comparable to the fenced-only treatment. Competing vegetation, assumed to be a symptom of excessive, long-term deer herbivory, does not seem to be the primary factor limiting tree regeneration in our study area. Ameliorating acid deposition warrants greater consideration as a management action because it could provide long-lasting benefits compared to short-term fence installations.