San Andreas Fault from San Francisco to Hollister
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The Pasadena office of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), together with the Caltech Seismological Laboratory, operates a network of more than 350 remote seismometers in southern California called the S outhern C alifornia S eismic N etwork (SCSN). SCSN is part of TriNet, a cooperative project between the USGS, Caltech, and the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG). The TriNet project is halfway completed and is upgrading the existing network to digital, adding new stations, and developing real-time and earthquake-alert capabilities. Signals from the SCSN sites are telemetered to a central processing location at the Caltech Seismological Lab in Pasadena. Computers that detect and record thousands of earthquakes each year continuously monitor these signals. Phase arrival times for these events are picked by analysts and are archived along with digital seismograms. Data acquisition, processing, and archiving are achieved using the Caltech/USGS Seismic Processing (CUSP) system ( Dollar, 1989 ). These data have been compiled into the SCSN Catalog of Earthquakes, a list beginning in 1932 that currently contains more than 356,300 events. Waveform, phase, and catalog data are archived by the Southern California Earthquake Center Data Center (SCEC_DC). This data set is critical to the evaluation of earthquake hazards in California and to the advancement of geoscience as a whole.
An alarm bell rings at the seismographic station and at the office of the campus police. It is 3:00 on a foggy San Francisco morning. Somewhere in the world an earthquake has occurred. The police telephone the duty seismologist at home telling him that the alarm has triggered. He makes his way into the seismograph station, bathrobe and all, to locate the earthquake and determine its magnitude. In this way, many seismology graduate students have been initiated into the responsibilities of running a seismographic station. At the University of California seismographic stations, the task of locating and determining magnitudes for both local and distant earthquakes is a continuous one. Teleseisms must be located rapidly so that events that occur in the Pacific can be identified and the Pacific Tsunami Warning System alerted. For great earthquakes anywhere, there is a responsibility to notify public agencies such as the California Office of Emergency Services, the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, the California Seismic Safety Commission, and the American Red Cross. In the case of damaging local earthquakes, it is necessary to alert also the California Department of Water Resources, California Division of Mines and Geology, U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bay Area Rapid Transit. These days, any earthquakes that are felt in northern California cause immediate inquiries from the news media and an interested public. The series of earthquakes that jolted the Livermore area from January 24 to 26 1980, is a good case in point.
The year 1980 marked the centennial of the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and a decade of the Division's involvement in seismology. Factors which contributed to the formation of a Seismology Group within CDMG included increased concerns for environmental and earthquake safety, interest in earthquake prediction, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and the 1973 publication by CDMG of an urban geology master plan for California. Reasons to be concerned about California's earthquake problem are demonstrated by the accompanying table and the figures. Recent seismicity in California, the Southern California uplift reflecting changes in crustal strain, and other possible earthquake precursors have heightened concern among scientific and governmental groups about the possible occurrence of a major damaging earthquake )M>7) in California.
A thick section of metamorphosed Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks is exposed in two roof pend- ants, one each in the Mount Morrison and Devils Postpile quadrangles in the eastern Sierra Nevada near Mammoth Lakes, Cali- fornia (Fig. 1). In the course of geologic mapping in these quadrangles by the U. S. Geo- logical Survey in co-operation with the California Division of Mines, fossils of Ordovician, Pennsylvanian, Permian(P), and Early Jurassic ages were collected from weakly metamorphosed parts of the pendants. Detailed map- ping in the Mount Morrison quadrangle has been completed by Rinehart and Ross, and a report on this area is in preparation. Similar mapping in the Devils Postpile quadrangle by Rinehart and Huber is in progress. In the part of the Devils Postpile quadrangle not yet covered in the present study, the contacts shown on the map (Fig. 1) are after Erwin (1934). Because diagnostic fossils are extremely rare in the metamorphic rocks of the Sierra Nevada, these fossils are considered important enough to merit this short note prior to completion of the detailed mapping in the Devils Postpile quadrangle and the publication of more comprehensive reports on the two quadrangles
For the purpose of sensitivity testing and illuminating nonconsensus components of time-dependent models, the California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) has assembled a time-dependent version of its statewide probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for California. The model incorporates available consensus information from within the earth-science community, except for a few faults or fault segments where consensus information is not available. For these latter faults, published information has been incorporated into the model. As in the 1996 CDMG/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) model, the time-dependent models incorporate three multisegment ruptures: a 1906, an 1857, and a southern San Andreas earthquake. Sensitivity tests are presented to show the effect on hazard and expected damage estimates of (1) intrinsic (aleatory) sigma, (2) multisegment (cascade) vs. independent segment (no cascade) ruptures, and (3) time-dependence vs. time-independence. Results indicate that (1) differences in hazard and expected damage estimates between time-dependent and independent models increase with decreasing intrinsic sigma, (2) differences in hazard and expected damage estimates between full cascading and not cascading are insensitive to intrinsic sigma, (3) differences in hazard increase with increasing return period (decreasing probability of occurrence), and (4) differences in moment-rate budgets increase with decreasing intrinsic sigma and with the degree of cascading, but are within the expected uncertainty in PSH time-dependent modeling and do not always significantly affect hazard and expected damage estimates.
We examine the difference between expected earthquake rates inferred from the historical earthquake catalog and the geologic data that was used to develop the consensus seismic source characterization for the state of California [California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Petersen et al., 1996; Frankel et al., 1996]. On average the historic earthquake catalog and the seismic source model both indicate about one M 6 or greater earthquake per year in the state of California. However, the overall earthquake rates of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) between 6 and 7 in this seismic source model are higher, by at least a factor of 2, than the mean historic earthquake rates for both southern and northern California. The earthquake rate discrepancy results from a seismic source model that includes earthquakes with characteristic (maximum) magnitudes that are primarily between M 6.4 and 7.1. Many of these faults are interpreted to accommodate high strain rates from geologic and geodetic data but have not ruptured in large earthquakes during historic time. Our sensitivity study indicates that the rate differences between magnitudes 6 and 7 can be reduced by adjusting the magnitude-frequency distribution of the source model to reflect more characteristic behavior, by decreasing the moment rate available for seismogenic slip along faults, by increasing the maximum magnitude of the earthquake on a fault, or by decreasing the maximum magnitude of the background seismicity. However, no single parameter can be adjusted, consistent with scientific consensus, to eliminate the earthquake rate discrepancy. Applying a combination of these parametric adjustments yields an alternative earthquake source model that is more compatible with the historic data. The 475-year return period hazard for peak ground and 1-sec spectral acceleration resulting from this alternative source model differs from the hazard resulting from the standard CDMG-USGS model by less than 10% across most of California but is higher (generally about 10% to 30%) within 20 km from some faults.