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Revised Dst and the epicycles of magnetic disturbance: 1958-2007

A revised version of the storm-time disturbance index D st is calculated using hourly-mean magnetic-observatory data from four standard observatories and collected over the years 1958-2007. The calculation algorithm is a revision of that established by Sugiura et al., and which is now used by the Kyoto World Data Center for routine production of D st . The most important new development is for the removal of solar-quiet variation. This is done through time and frequency-domain band-stop filtering - selectively removing specific Fourier terms approximating stationary periodic variation driven by the Earth's rotation, the Moon's orbit, the Earth's orbit around the Sun, and their mutual coupling. The resulting non-stationary disturbance time series are weighted by observatory-site geomagnetic latitude and then averaged together across longitudes to give what we call D st 5807-4SH . Comparisons are made with the standard Kyoto D st . Various biases, especially for residual solar-quiet variation, are identified in the Kyoto D st , and occasional storm-time errors in the Kyoto D st are noted. Using D st 5807-4SH , storms are ranked for maximum storm-time intensity, and we show that storm-occurrence frequency follows a power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff. The epicycles of magnetic disturbance are explored: we (1) map low-latitude local-time disturbance asymmetry, (2) confirm the 27-day storm-recurrence phenomenon using autocorrelation, (3) investigate the coupled semi-annual-diurnal variation of magnetic activity and the proposed explanatory equinoctial and Russell-McPherron hypotheses, and (4) illustrate the well-known solar-cycle modulation of storm-occurrence likelihood. Since D st 5807-4SH is useful for a variety of space physics and solid-Earth applications, it is made freely available to the scientific community.

Annales Geophysicae↗

Missing data and the accuracy of magnetic-observatory hour means

Analysis is made of the accuracy of magnetic-observatory hourly means constructed from definitive minute data having missing values (gaps). Bootstrap sampling from different data-gap distributions is used to estimate average errors on hourly means as a function of the number of missing data. Absolute and relative error results are calculated for horizontal-intensity, declination, and vertical-component data collected at high, medium, and low magnetic latitudes. For 90% complete coverage (10% missing data), average (RMS) absolute errors on hourly means are generally less than errors permitted by Intermagnet for minute data. As a rule of thumb, the average relative error for hourly means with 10% missing minute data is approximately equal to 10% of the hourly standard deviation of the source minute data.

Annales Geophysicae↗

Averaging and sampling for magnetic-observatory hourly data

A time and frequency-domain analysis is made of the effects of averaging and sampling methods used for constructing magnetic-observatory hourly data values. Using 1-min data as a proxy for continuous, geomagnetic variation, we construct synthetic hourly values of two standard types: instantaneous "spot" measurements and simple 1-h "boxcar" averages. We compare these average-sample types with others: 2-h average, Gaussian, and "brick-wall" low-frequency-pass. Hourly spot measurements provide a statistically unbiased representation of the amplitude range of geomagnetic-field variation, but as a representation of continuous field variation over time, they are significantly affected by aliasing, especially at high latitudes. The 1-h, 2-h, and Gaussian average-samples are affected by a combination of amplitude distortion and aliasing. Brick-wall values are not affected by either amplitude distortion or aliasing, but constructing them is, in an operational setting, relatively more difficult than it is for other average-sample types. It is noteworthy that 1-h average-samples, the present standard for observatory hourly data, have properties similar to Gaussian average-samples that have been optimized for a minimum residual sum of amplitude distortion and aliasing. For 1-h average-samples from medium and low-latitude observatories, the average of the combination of amplitude distortion and aliasing is less than the 5.0 nT accuracy standard established by Intermagnet for modern 1-min data. For medium and low-latitude observatories, average differences between monthly means constructed from 1-min data and monthly means constructed from any of the hourly average-sample types considered here are less than the 1.0 nT resolution of standard databases. We recommend that observatories and World Data Centers continue the standard practice of reporting simple 1-h-average hourly values.

Annales Geophysicae↗

Long-term biases in geomagnetic K and aa indices

Analysis is made of the geomagnetic-activity aa index and its source K -index data from groups of ground-based observatories in Britain, and Australia, 1868.0–2009.0, solar cycles 11–23. The K data show persistent biases, especially for high (low) K -activity levels at British (Australian) observatories. From examination of multiple subsets of the K data we infer that the biases are not predominantly the result of changes in observatory location, localized induced magnetotelluric currents, changes in magnetometer technology, or the modernization of K -value estimation methods. Instead, the biases appear to be artifacts of the latitude-dependent scaling used to assign K values to particular local levels of geomagnetic activity. The biases are not effectively removed by weighting factors used to estimate aa . We show that long-term averages of the aa index, such as annual averages, are dominated by medium-level geomagnetic activity levels having K values of 3 and 4.

Annales Geophysicae↗

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0–2009.0, solar cycles 11–23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14–23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11–13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years.

Annales Geophysicae↗

Interpretation of broad-band seismograms from central Aleutian earthquakes.

Broad-band Graefenberg (GRF) array data from 11 moderate-size shallow-depth earthquakes in the central Aleutians have been used to study the effects of focal depth and structure across the arc on observed waveforms. The theoretical results, primarily phase arrival times, suggest that arc structure is responsible for many of the complicated features seen on vertical-component summation seismograms simulated with different instrument responses from the broad-band array data. Except for one trench event, all the earthquakes studied occurred along the plate interface zone, had similar thrust focal mechanisms, and differed only in depth. As a result, the effects of depth phases on observed GRF waveforms across the arc were found to be systematically related to the increase in focal depth along the shallow-dipping seismic zone. -from Authors

Annales Geophysicae, Series B↗