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The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a time map) throughout a hazard zone. Model results provide a general, static view of the evacuation landscape at different pedestrian travel speeds and can be used to identify areas outside the reach of naturally occurring high ground. In addition, data on the size and location of different populations within the hazard zone can be integrated with travel-time maps to create tables and graphs of at-risk population counts as a function of travel time to safety. As a decision-support tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst provides the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of various vertical-evacuation structures within a study area, both through time maps of the modeled travel-time landscape with a potential structure in place and through comparisons of population counts within reach of safety. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is designed for use by researchers examining the pedestrian-evacuation potential of an at-risk community. In communities where modeled evacuation times exceed the event (for example, tsunami wave) arrival time, researchers can use the software with emergency managers to assess the area and population served by potential vertical-evacuation options. By automating and managing the modeling process, the software allows researchers to concentrate efforts on providing crucial and timely information on community vulnerability to sudden-onset hazards.

Techniques and Methods

Taxonomic harmonization may reveal a stronger association between diatom assemblages and total phosphorus in large datasets

Diatom data have been collected in large-scale biological assessments in the United States, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA). However, the effectiveness of diatoms as indicators may suffer if inconsistent taxon identifications across different analysts obscure the relationships between assemblage composition and environmental variables. To reduce these inconsistencies, we harmonized the 2008–2009 NRSA data from nine analysts by updating names to current synonyms and by statistically identifying taxa with high analyst signal (taxa with more variation in relative abundance explained by the analyst factor, relative to environmental variables). We then screened a subset of samples with QA/QC data and combined taxa with mismatching identifications by the primary and secondary analysts. When these combined “slash groups” did not reduce analyst signal, we elevated taxa to the genus level or omitted taxa in difficult species complexes. We examined the variation explained by analyst in the original and revised datasets. Further, we examined how revising the datasets to reduce analyst signal can reduce inconsistency, thereby uncovering the variation in assemblage composition explained by total phosphorus (TP), an environmental variable of high priority for water managers. To produce a revised dataset with the greatest taxonomic consistency, we ultimately made 124 slash groups, omitted 7 taxa in the small naviculoid (e.g., Sellaphora atomoides ) species complex, and elevated Nitzschia , Diploneis , and Tryblionella taxa to the genus level. Relative to the original dataset, the revised dataset had more overlap among samples grouped by analyst in ordination space, less variation explained by the analyst factor, and more than double the variation in assemblage composition explained by TP. Elevating all taxa to the genus level did not eliminate analyst signal completely, and analyst remained the most important predictor for the genera Sellaphora , Mayamaea , and Psammodictyon , indicating that these taxa present the greatest obstacle to consistent identification in this dataset. Although our process did not completely remove analyst signal, this work provides a method to minimize analyst signal and improve detection of diatom association with TP in large datasets involving multiple analysts. Examination of variation in assemblage data explained by analyst and taxonomic harmonization may be necessary steps for improving data quality and the utility of diatoms as indicators of environmental variables.

Ecological Indicators

Reduction of taxonomic bias in diatom species data

Inconsistency in taxonomic identification and analyst bias impede the effective use of diatom data in regional and national stream and lake surveys. In this study, we evaluated the effect of existing protocols and a revised protocol on the precision of diatom species counts. The revised protocol adjusts four elements of sample preparation, taxon identification and enumeration, and quality control (QC). We used six independent datasets to assess the effect of the adjustments on analytical outcomes. The first dataset was produced by three laboratories with a total of five analysts following established protocols (Charles et al. 2002), or their slight variations. The remaining datasets were produced by 1-3 laboratories with a total of 2-3 analysts following a revised protocol. The revised protocol included the following modifications: 1) development of coordinated pre-count voucher floras based on morphological operational taxonomic units (mOTUs), 2) random assignment of samples to analysts, 3) post-count identification and documentation of taxa (as opposed to an approach in which analysts assign names while they enumerate), and 4) increased use of QC samples. The revised protocol reduced taxonomic bias, as measured by reduction in analyst signal, and improved similarity among QC samples. Reduced taxonomic bias improves the performance of biological assessments, facilitates transparency across studies, and refines estimates of diatom species distributions.

Limnology and Oceanography: Methods

The spatially adaptable filter for error reduction (SAFER) process: Remote sensing-based LANDFIRE disturbance mapping updates

LANDFIRE (LF) has been producing periodic spatially explicit vegetation change maps (i.e., LF disturbance products) across the entire United States since 1999 at a 30 m spatial resolution. These disturbance products include data products produced by various fire programs, field-mapped vegetation and fuel treatment activity (i.e., events) submissions from various agencies, and disturbances detected by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)-based Remote Sensing of Landscape Change (RSLC) process. The RSLC process applies a bi-temporal change detection algorithm to Landsat satellite-based seasonal composites to generate the interim disturbances that are subsequently reviewed by analysts to reduce omission and commission errors before ingestion them into LF’s disturbance products. The latency of the disturbance product is contingent on timely data availability and analyst review. This work describes the development and integration of the Spatially Adaptable Filter for Error Reduction (SAFER) process and other error and latency reduction improvements to the RSLC process. SAFER is a random forest-based supervised classifier and uses predictor variables that are derived from multiple years of pre- and post-disturbance Landsat band observations. Predictor variables include reflectance, indices, and spatial contextual information. Spatial contextual information that is unique to each contiguous disturbance region is parameterized as Z scores using differential observations of the disturbed regions with its undisturbed neighbors. The SAFER process was prototyped for inclusion in the RSLC process over five regions within the conterminous United States (CONUS) and regional model performance, evaluated using 2016 data. Results show that the inclusion of the SAFER process increased the accuracies of the interim disturbance detections and thus has potential to reduce the time needed for analyst review. LF does not track the time taken by each analyst for each tile, and hence, the relative effort saved was parameterized as the percentage of 30 m pixels that are correctly classified in the SAFER outputs to the total number of pixels that are incorrectly classified in the interim disturbance and are presented. The SAFER prototype outputs showed that the relative analysts’ effort saved could be over 95%. The regional model performance evaluation showed that SAFER’s performance depended on the nature of disturbances and availability of cloud-free images relative to the time of disturbances. The accuracy estimates for CONUS were inferred by comparing the 2017 SAFER outputs to the 2017 analyst-reviewed data. As expected, the SAFER outputs had higher accuracies compared to the interim disturbances, and CONUS-wide relative effort saved was over 92%. The regional variation in the accuracies and effort saved are discussed in relation to the vegetation and disturbance type in each region. SAFER is now operationally integrated into the RSLC process, and LANDFIRE is well poised for annual updates, contingent on the availability of data.

Fire

An assessment of uncertainties in VS profiles obtained from microtremor observations in the phased 2018 COSMOS blind trials

Site response is a critical consideration when assessing earthquake hazards. Site characterization is key to understanding site effects as influenced by seismic site conditions of the local geology. Thus, a number of geophysical site characterization methods were developed to meet the demand for accurate and cost-effective results. As a consequence, a number of studies have been administered periodically as blind trials to evaluate the state-of-practice on-site characterization. We present results from the Consortium of Organizations for Strong Motion Observation Systems (COSMOS) blind trials, which used data recorded from surface-based microtremor array methods (MAM) at four sites where geomorphic conditions vary from deep alluvial basins to an alpine valley. Thirty-four invited analysts participated. Data were incrementally released to 17 available analysts who participated in all four phases: (1) two-station arrays, (2) sparse triangular arrays, (3) complex nested triangular or circular arrays, and (4) all available geological control site information including drill hole data. Another set of 17 analysts provided results from two sites and two phases only. Although data from one site consisted of recordings from three-component sensors, the other three sites consisted of data recorded only by vertical-component sensors. The sites cover a range of noise source distributions, ranging from one site with a highly directional microtremor wave field to others with omni-directional (azimuthally distributed) wave fields. We review results from different processing techniques (e.g., beam-forming, spatial autocorrelation, cross-correlation, or seismic interferometry) applied by the analysts and compare the effectiveness between the differing wave field distributions. We define the M index as a quality index based on estimates of the time-averaged shear-wave velocity of the upper 10 ( V S10 ), 30 ( V S30 ), 100 ( V S100 ), and 300 ( V S300 ) meters and show its usefulness in quantitative comparisons of V S profiles from multiple analysts. Our findings are expected to aid in building an evidence-based consensus on preferred cost-effective arrays and processing methodology for future studies of seismic site effects.

Seismological Research Letters

Mapping surface disturbance of energy-related infrastructure in southwest Wyoming--An assessment of methods

We evaluated how well three leading information-extraction software programs (eCognition, Feature Analyst, Feature Extraction) and manual hand digitization interpreted information from remotely sensed imagery of a visually complex gas field in Wyoming. Specifically, we compared how each mapped the area of and classified the disturbance features present on each of three remotely sensed images, including 30-meter-resolution Landsat, 10-meter-resolution SPOT (Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre), and 0.6-meter resolution pan-sharpened QuickBird scenes. Feature Extraction mapped the spatial area of disturbance features most accurately on the Landsat and QuickBird imagery, while hand digitization was most accurate on the SPOT imagery. Footprint non-overlap error was smallest on the Feature Analyst map of the Landsat imagery, the hand digitization map of the SPOT imagery, and the Feature Extraction map of the QuickBird imagery. When evaluating feature classification success against a set of ground-truthed control points, Feature Analyst, Feature Extraction, and hand digitization classified features with similar success on the QuickBird and SPOT imagery, while eCognition classified features poorly relative to the other methods. All maps derived from Landsat imagery classified disturbance features poorly. Using the hand digitized QuickBird data as a reference and making pixel-by-pixel comparisons, Feature Extraction classified features best overall on the QuickBird imagery, and Feature Analyst classified features best overall on the SPOT and Landsat imagery. Based on the entire suite of tasks we evaluated, Feature Extraction performed best overall on the Landsat and QuickBird imagery, while hand digitization performed best overall on the SPOT imagery, and eCognition performed worst overall on all three images. Error rates for both area measurements and feature classification were prohibitively high on Landsat imagery, while QuickBird was time and cost prohibitive for mapping large spatial extents. The SPOT imagery produced map products that were far more accurate than Landsat and did so at a far lower cost than QuickBird imagery. Consideration of degree of map accuracy required, costs associated with image acquisition, software, operator and computation time, and tradeoffs in the form of spatial extent versus resolution should all be considered when evaluating which combination of imagery and information-extraction method might best serve any given land use mapping project. When resources permit, attaining imagery that supports the highest classification and measurement accuracy possible is recommended.

Wyoming

Comparison of specimen- and image-based morphometrics in Cisco

Morphometric data from fish are typically generated using one of two methods: direct measurements made on a specimen or extraction of distances from a digital picture. We compared data on 12 morphometrics collected with these two methods on the same collection of Cisco Coregonus artedi from Lake Ontario, North America, to assess the degree of bias in measurements made directly on a specimen- vs. an image-based method. We also assessed the degree of reproducibility within the image-based method by evaluating the amount of variation between different analysts for each morphometric method. Our results indicate specific morphometrics may be more prone to bias across the two methods and between analysts. Four of 12 morphometrics evaluated showed significant deviation from a 1:1 relationship that would be expected if the imaged-based method produced accurate specimen-based measurements. Pelvic fin length and pelvic–anal fin distance had the highest between-analyst variation for image-based landmarks, indicating low reproducibility for these metrics, compared with pectoral fin or total length, which had lower between-analyst variation. Although some morphometric measurements can be accurately obtained with either method, and therefore potentially used interchangeably in studies on Cisco morphology, our findings highlight the importance of considering method bias in morphometric studies that use data collected by different methods.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

Occupancy modeling species–environment relationships with non‐ignorable survey designs

Statistical models supporting inferences about species occurrence patterns in relation to environmental gradients are fundamental to ecology and conservation biology. A common implicit assumption is that the sampling design is ignorable and does not need to be formally accounted for in analyses. The analyst assumes data are representative of the desired population and statistical modeling proceeds. However, if data sets from probability and non‐probability surveys are combined or unequal selection probabilities are used, the design may be non‐ignorable. We outline the use of pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimation for site‐occupancy models to account for such non‐ignorable survey designs. This estimation method accounts for the survey design by properly weighting the pseudo‐likelihood equation. In our empirical example, legacy and newer randomly selected locations were surveyed for bats to bridge a historic statewide effort with an ongoing nationwide program. We provide a worked example using bat acoustic detection/non‐detection data and show how analysts can diagnose whether their design is ignorable. Using simulations we assessed whether our approach is viable for modeling data sets composed of sites contributed outside of a probability design. Pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimates differed from the usual maximum likelihood occupancy estimates for some bat species. Using simulations we show the maximum likelihood estimator of species–environment relationships with non‐ignorable sampling designs was biased, whereas the pseudo‐likelihood estimator was design unbiased. However, in our simulation study the designs composed of a large proportion of legacy or non‐probability sites resulted in estimation issues for standard errors. These issues were likely a result of highly variable weights confounded by small sample sizes (5% or 10% sampling intensity and four revisits). Aggregating data sets from multiple sources logically supports larger sample sizes and potentially increases spatial extents for statistical inferences. Our results suggest that ignoring the mechanism for how locations were selected for data collection (e.g., the sampling design) could result in erroneous model‐based conclusions. Therefore, in order to ensure robust and defensible recommendations for evidence‐based conservation decision‐making, the survey design information in addition to the data themselves must be available for analysts. Details for constructing the weights used in estimation and code for implementation are provided.

Ecological Applications

Leveraging machine learning to automate regression model evaluations for large multi-site water-quality trend studies

Large multi-site trend studies provide an opportunity to evaluate progress of waterbodies towards water-quality goals across broad geographic areas. Such studies often aggregate the results of site-specific models and thus contend with evaluating each model for appropriate fit and statistical assumptions. We explored the use of four traditional machine learning models (logistic regression, linear and quadratic discriminant analysis, and k-nearest neighbors) to perform these checks and estimate probabilities that an analyst would publish or reject a site-specific trend model from a multi-site study. We trained these “model-checking models” (MCMs) using a national study of over 6000 trend models and tested the MCMs using a smaller set of novel trend models. Although the MCMs did not perform well enough to bypass analyst review entirely, we found incorporating an MCM into a larger evaluation workflow can reduce the number of trend models needing an analyst review by more than half.

Environmental Modeling and Software

Spectral assessment of new ASTER SWIR surface reflectance data products for spectroscopic mapping of rocks and minerals

ASTER reflectance spectra from Cuprite, Nevada, and Mountain Pass, California, were compared to spectra of field samples and to ASTER-resampled AVIRIS reflectance data to determine spectral accuracy and spectroscopic mapping potential of two new ASTER SWIR reflectance datasets: RefL1b and AST_07XT. RefL1b is a new reflectance dataset produced for this study using ASTER Level 1B data, crosstalk correction, radiance correction factors, and concurrently acquired level 2 MODIS water vapor data. The AST_07XT data product, available from EDC and ERSDAC, incorporates crosstalk correction and non-concurrently acquired MODIS water vapor data for atmospheric correction. Spectral accuracy was determined using difference values which were compiled from ASTER band 5/6 and 9/8 ratios of AST_07XT or RefL1b data subtracted from similar ratios calculated for field sample and AVIRIS reflectance data. In addition, Spectral Analyst, a statistical program that utilizes a Spectral Feature Fitting algorithm, was used to quantitatively assess spectral accuracy of AST_07XT and RefL1b data.Spectral Analyst matched more minerals correctly and had higher scores for the RefL1b data than for AST_07XT data. The radiance correction factors used in the RefL1b data corrected a low band 5 reflectance anomaly observed in the AST_07XT and AST_07 data but also produced anomalously high band 5 reflectance in RefL1b spectra with strong band 5 absorption for minerals, such as alunite. Thus, the band 5 anomaly seen in the RefL1b data cannot be corrected using additional gain adjustments. In addition, the use of concurrent MODIS water vapor data in the atmospheric correction of the RefL1b data produced datasets that had lower band 9 reflectance anomalies than the AST_07XT data. Although assessment of spectral data suggests that RefL1b data are more consistent and spectrally more correct than AST_07XT data, the Spectral Analyst results indicate that spectral discrimination between some minerals, such as alunite and kaolinite, are still not possible unless additional spectral calibration using site specific spectral data are performed. ?? 2010.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Validation of the USGS Landsat Burned Area Essential Climate Variable (BAECV) across the conterminous United States

The Landsat Burned Area Essential Climate Variable (BAECV), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), capitalizes on the long temporal availability of Landsat imagery to identify burned areas across the conterminous United States (CONUS) (1984–2015). Adequate validation of such products is critical for their proper usage and interpretation. Validation of coarse-resolution products often relies on independent data derived from moderate-resolution sensors (e.g., Landsat). Validation of Landsat products, in turn, is challenging because there is no corresponding source of high-resolution, multispectral imagery that has been systematically collected in space and time over the entire temporal extent of the Landsat archive. Because of this, comparison between high-resolution images and Landsat science products can help increase user's confidence in the Landsat science products, but may not, alone, be adequate. In this paper, we demonstrate an approach to systematically validate the Landsat-derived BAECV product. Burned area extent was mapped for Landsat image pairs using a manually trained semi-automated algorithm that was manually edited across 28 path/rows and five different years (1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008). Three datasets were independently developed by three analysts and the datasets were integrated on a pixel by pixel basis in which at least one to all three analysts were required to agree a pixel was burned. We found that errors within our Landsat reference dataset could be minimized by using the rendition of the dataset in which pixels were mapped as burned if at least two of the three analysts agreed. BAECV errors of omission and commission for the detection of burned pixels averaged 42% and 33%, respectively for CONUS across all five validation years. Errors of omission and commission were lowest across the western CONUS, for example in the shrub and scrublands of the Arid West (31% and 24%, respectively), and highest in the grasslands and agricultural lands of the Great Plains in central CONUS (62% and 57%, respectively). The BAECV product detected most (> 65%) fire events > 10 ha across the western CONUS (Arid and Mountain West ecoregions). Our approach and results demonstrate that a thorough validation of Landsat science products can be completed with independent Landsat-derived reference data, but could be strengthened by the use of complementary sources of high-resolution data.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Incorporating interpreter variability into estimation of the total variance of land cover area estimates under simple random sampling

Area estimates of land cover and land cover change are often based on reference class labels determined by analysts interpreting satellite imagery and aerial photography. Different interpreters may assign different reference class labels to the same sample unit. This interpreter variability is typically not accounted for in variance estimators applied to area estimates of land cover. A simple measurement model provides the basis for an estimator of the total variance ( V Total ) that takes into account both sampling variance and interpreter variance. This method requires two or more reference class interpretations (i.e., repeated measurements) obtained by analysts, working independently of each other, for the full sample or a random subsample of the full sample. Estimators of the total variance ( V ̂ Total "> V̂Total ) and the variance component attributable to interpreters ( V ̂ 1 "> V̂1 ) were obtained for the case of two reference class interpretations per repeated sample unit. To evaluate the effect of interpreter variability on variance estimation, we used land cover reference data interpreted by seven analysts who each interpreted the same 300 sample pixels from a region of the Pacific Northwest of the United States. From these data, we estimated the contribution of interpreter variance to the total variance (i.e., V ̂ 1 / V ̂ Total "> V̂1/V̂Total ) and the relative bias of the standard simple random sampling variance estimator ( V ̂ stand "> V̂stand ) as an estimator of V Total , defined as 100%*( V ̂ stand − V ̂ Total "> V̂stand−V̂Total )/ V ̂ Total "> V̂Total . For each of five land cover classes, we computed V ̂ 1 "> V̂1 , V ̂ Total "> V̂Total , and V ̂ stand "> V̂stand using the sample data from each of the 21 possible pairwise combinations of the seven interpreters, and then calculated the mean of V ̂ 1 / V ̂ Total "> V̂1/V̂Total and the mean of the estimated relative bias of V ̂ stand "> V̂stand over these 21 pairs. Based on the mean of V ̂ 1 / V ̂ Total "> V̂1/V̂Total per class, interpreter variance contributed from 25% (cropland) to 76% (grass/shrub) of the total variance, indicating that interpreter variance was a non-negligible component of the total variance. Typically, the standard variance estimator, V ̂ stand "> V̂stand , underestimated the total variance with the mean estimated relative bias ranging from −3% (cropland) to −33% (grass/shrub). Classes with greater inconsistency between pairs of interpreters had larger contributions of interpreter variance to the total variance ( V ̂ 1 / V ̂ Total "> V̂1/V̂Total ) and larger negative estimated relative bias of V ̂ stand "> V̂stand . Given that interpreter variance can contribute substantially to the total variance, the repeated measurements approach offers a practical way to incorporate this variability into an estimator of the total variance.

Washington

Assessment of relative accuracy in the determination of organic matter concentrations in aquatic systems

Accurate determinations of total (TOC), dissolved (DOC) and particulate (POC) organic carbon concentrations are critical for understanding the geochemical, environmental, and ecological roles of aquatic organic matter. Of particular significance for the drinking water industry, TOC measurements are the basis for compliance with US EPA regulations. The results of an interlaboratory comparison designed to identify problems associated with the determination of organic matter concentrations in drinking water supplies are presented. The study involved 31 laboratories and a variety of commercially available analytical instruments. All participating laboratories performed well on samples of potassium hydrogen phthalate (KHP), a compound commonly used as a standard in carbon analysis. However, problems associated with the oxidation of difficult to oxidize compounds, such as dodecylbenzene sulfonic acid and caffeine, were noted. Humic substances posed fewer problems for analysts. Particulate organic matter (POM) in the form of polystyrene beads, freeze-dried bacteria and pulverized leaf material were the most difficult for all analysts, with a wide range of performances reported. The POM results indicate that the methods surveyed in this study are inappropriate for the accurate determination of POC and TOC concentration. Finally, several analysts had difficulty in efficiently separating inorganic carbon from KHP solutions, thereby biasing DOC results.

Journal of Environmental Monitoring

Regression equations for estimation of annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas using an L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach

Annual peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, and other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Annual peak-streamflow frequency represents the peak streamflow for nine recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 250, and 500 years. Common methods for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged or unmonitored watersheds are regression equations for each recurrence interval developed for one or more regions; such regional equations are the subject of this report. The method is based on analysis of annual peak-streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (stations). Beginning in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, began a 3-year investigation concerning the development of regional equations to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. The investigation focuses primarily on 638 stations with 8 or more years of data from undeveloped watersheds and other criteria. The general approach is explicitly limited to the use of L-moment statistics, which are used in conjunction with a technique of multi-linear regression referred to as PRESS minimization. The approach used to develop the regional equations, which was refined during the investigation, is referred to as the 'L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach'. For the approach, seven unique distributions are fit to the sample L-moments of the data for each of 638 stations and trimmed means of the seven results of the distributions for each recurrence interval are used to define the station specific, peak-streamflow frequency. As a first iteration of regression, nine weighted-least-squares, PRESS-minimized, multi-linear regression equations are computed using the watershed characteristics of drainage area, dimensionless main-channel slope, and mean annual precipitation. The residuals of the nine equations are spatially mapped, and residuals for the 10-year recurrence interval are selected for generalization to 1-degree latitude and longitude quadrangles. The generalized residual is referred to as the OmegaEM parameter and represents a generalized terrain and climate index that expresses peak-streamflow potential not otherwise represented in the three watershed characteristics. The OmegaEM parameter was assigned to each station, and using OmegaEM, nine additional regression equations are computed. Because of favorable diagnostics, the OmegaEM equations are expected to be generally reliable estimators of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped and ungaged stream locations in Texas. The mean residual standard error, adjusted R-squared, and percentage reduction of PRESS by use of OmegaEM are 0.30log 10 , 0.86, and -21 percent, respectively. Inclusion of the OmegaEM parameter provides a substantial reduction in the PRESS statistic of the regression equations and removes considerable spatial dependency in regression residuals. Although the OmegaEM parameter requires interpretation on the part of analysts and the potential exists that different analysts could estimate different values for a given watershed, the authors suggest that typical uncertainty in the OmegaEM estimate might be about +or-0.10 10 . Finally, given the two ensembles of equations reported herein and those in previous reports, hydrologic design engineers and other analysts have several different methods, which represent different analytical tracks, to make comparisons of peak-streamflow frequency estimates for ungaged watersheds in the study area.

Texas

U.S. Geological Survey standards-II. First compilation of data for the new U.S.G.S. rocks

Rock analyses, determinations of major and minor constituents, and determinations of 57 trace elements reported by analysts throughout the world are presented for the new series of U.S. Geological Survey rock samples. Averages for both the constituents generally reported in a rock analysis and the trace elements are given. Variances of the distributions of data by rock analysts for several oxides in G-2 are compared with similar variances for G-l.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

Locating CVBEM collocation points for steady state heat transfer problems

The Complex Variable Boundary Element Method or CVBEM provides a highly accurate means of developing numerical solutions to steady state two-dimensional heat transfer problems. The numerical approach exactly solves the Laplace equation and satisfies the boundary conditions at specified points on the boundary by means of collocation. The accuracy of the approximation depends upon the nodal point distribution specified by the numerical analyst. In order to develop subsequent, refined approximation functions, four techniques for selecting additional collocation points are presented. The techniques are compared as to the governing theory, representation of the error of approximation on the problem boundary, the computational costs, and the ease of use by the numerical analyst.

Engineering Analysis

Microscopical characterization of carbon materials derived from coal and petroleum and their interaction phenomena in making steel electrodes, anodes and cathode blocks for the Microscopy of Carbon Materials Working Group of the ICCP

This paper describes the evaluation of petrographic textures representing the structural organization of the organic matter derived from coal and petroleum and their interaction phenomena in the making of steel electrodes, anodes and cathode blocks. This work represents the results of the Microscopy of Carbon Materials Working Group in Commission III of the International Committee for Coal and Organic Petrology between the years 2009 and 2013. The round robin exercises were run on photomicrograph samples. For textural characterization of carbon materials the existing ASTM classification system for metallurgical coke was applied. These round robin exercises involved 15 active participants from 12 laboratories who were asked to assess the coal and petroleum based carbons and to identify the morphological differences, as optical texture (isotropic/anisotropic), optical type (punctiform, mosaic, fibre, ribbon, domain), and size. Four sets of digital black and white microphotographs comprising 151 photos containing 372 fields of different types of organic matter were examined. Based on the unique ability of carbon to form a wide range of textures, the results showed an increased number of carbon occurrences which have crucial role in the chosen industrial applications. The statistical method used to evaluate the results was based on the “raw agreement indices”. It gave a new and original view on the analysts' opinion by not only counting the correct answers, but also all of the knowledge and experience of the participants. Comparative analyses of the average values of the level of overall agreement performed by each analyst in the exercises during 2009–2013 showed a great homogeneity in the results, the mean value being 90.36%, with a minimum value of 83% and a maximum value of 95%.

International Journal of Coal Geology