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Risk preferences and flood insurance

A detailed theoretical model characterizing the individual's decision to purchase flood insurance is specified and the magnitude of the risk parameter is estimated using data based on transactions of flood insurance purchases. Empirical results for several samples of this subset of the general population indicated that consumers exhibited a relatively uniform degree of risk aversion across various localities where different hydrologic and economic conditions prevailed. While the estimates presented should not be directly extrapolated to the entire population located in a flood prone area, they provide evidence that parameters determining an individual's and/or community's willingness to pay for flood protection can be measured.

American Journal of Agricultural Economics

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load was established for the water quality and ecological restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In 2017, the latest science, data, and modeling tools were used to develop revised Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). In this article, we examine the vulnerability of the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the combined pressures of climate change and growth in population, agricultural intensity, and economic activity for the 60-year period 1995–2055. The results will be used to revise WIPs, as needed, to account for expected increases in loads. Assessing changes relative to 1995 for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055, mean annual precipitation increases of 3.11%, 4.21%, 5.34%, and 6.91%, respectively, air temperature increases of 1.12, 1.45, 1.84, and 2.12°C, respectively, and potential evapotranspiration increases of 3.36%, 4.43%, 5.54%, and 6.35%, respectively, are projected. Population in the watershed is expected to grow by 3.5 million between 2025 and 2055. Watershed model results show incremental increases in streamflow (2.3%–6.2%), nitrogen (2.6%–10.8%), phosphorus (4.5%–26.7%), and sediment (3.8%–18.8%) loads to the tidal Bay due to climate change. Growth in population, agricultural intensity, development, and economic activity resulted in relatively smaller increases in loads compared to climate change.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Black-tailed and white-tailed jackrabbits in the American West: History, ecology, ecological significance, and survey methods

Across the western United States, Leporidae are the most important prey item in the diet of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Leporids inhabiting the western United States include black-tailed ( Lepus californicus ) and white-tailed jackrabbits ( Lepus townsendi i) and various species of cottontail rabbit ( Sylvilagus spp.). Jackrabbits ( Lepus spp.) are particularly important components of the ecological and economic landscape of western North America because their abundance influences the reproductive success and population trends of predators such as coyotes ( Canis latrans ), bobcats ( Lynx rufus ), and a number of raptor species. Here, we review literature pertaining to black-tailed and white-tailed jackrabbits comprising over 170 published journal articles, notes, technical reports, conference proceedings, academic theses and dissertations, and other sources dating from the late 19th century to the present. Our goal is to present information to assist those in research and management, particularly with regard to protected raptor species (e.g., Golden Eagles), mammalian predators, and ecological monitoring. We classified literature sources as (1) general information on jackrabbit species, (2) black-tailed or (3) white-tailed jackrabbit ecology and natural history, or (4) survey methods. These categories, especially 2, 3, and 4, were further subdivided as appropriate. The review also produced several tables on population trends, food habits, densities within various habitats, and jackrabbit growth and development. Black-tailed and white-tailed jackrabbits are ecologically similar in general behaviors, use of forms, parasites, and food habits, and they are prey to similar predators; but they differ in their preferred habitats. While the black-tailed jackrabbit inhabits agricultural land, deserts, and shrublands, the white-tailed jackrabbit is associated with prairies, alpine tundra, and sagebrush-steppe. Frequently considered abundant, jackrabbit numbers in western North America fluctuate temporally and spatially. We also reviewed methods used to investigate jackrabbit populations, including spotlight line transects, flushing transects, drive counts, pellet plot counts, collections, roadside counts, mark-recapture studies, and radio-telemetry studies. Our review of jackrabbit literature illustrates a number of deficiencies in our understanding of jackrabbits in general. As an example, a detailed quantitative description of habitat preferences is lacking, as is a thorough understanding of sympatric jackrabbit species interactions. Even the existence of the oft-cited jackrabbit “cycle” is a matter of debate. Survey methods generally do not address efficacy or accuracy in measuring jackrabbit density or abundance. In addition, there is a paucity of information about jackrabbits in the Mojave Desert, with no real understanding of home ranges, habitat preferences, and population dynamics or demographics in this region.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas

Bioeconomic analysis of selected conservation practices on soil erosion and freshwater fisheries

Farmers can generate environmental benefits (improved water quality and fisheries and wildlife habitat), but they may not be able to quantify them. Furthermore, farmers may reduce their incomes from managing lands to produce these positive externalities but receive little monetary compensation in return. This study simulated the relationship between agricultural practices, water quality, fish responses to suspended sediment and farm income within two small watersheds, one of a cool water stream and one of a warm water stream. Using the Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model, this study related best management practices (BMPs) to calculated instream suspended sediment concentrations by estimating sediment delivery, runoff, base flow, and streambank erosion to quantify the effects of suspended sediment exposure on fish communities. By implementing selected BMPs in each watershed, annual net farm income declined $18,000 to $28,000 (1 to 3 percent) from previous levels. “Lethal” fish events from suspended sediments in the cool water watershed decreased by 60 percent as conservation tillage and riparian buffers increased. Despite reducing suspended sediments by 25 percent, BMPs in the warm water watershed did not reduce the negative response of the fisheries. Differences in responses (physical and biological) between watersheds highlight potential gains in economic efficiency by targeting BMPs or by offering performance based “green payments.”

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Regional assessment of NLEAP NO 3- N leaching indices

Nonpoint source ground water contamination by nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 -N) leached from agricultural lands can be substantial and increase health risks to humans and animals. Accurate and rapid methods are needed to identify and map localities that have a high potential for contamination of shallow aquifers with NO 3 -N leached from agriculture. Evaluation of Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis Package (NLEAP) indices and input variables across an irrigated agricultural area on an alluvial aquifer in Colorado indicated that all leaching indices tested were more strongly correlated with aquifer NO 3 -N concentration than with aquifer N mass. Of the indices and variables tested, the NO 3 -N Leached (NL) index was the NLEAP index most strongly associated with groundwater NO 3 -N concentration (r 2 values from 0.37 to 0.39). NO 3 -N concentration of the leachate was less well correlated with ground water NO 3 -N concentration (r 2 values from 0.21 to 0.22). Stepwise regression analysis indicated that, although inorganic and organic/inorganic fertilizer scenarios had similar r 2 values, the Feedlot Indicator (proximity) variable was significant over and above the NO 3 -N Leached index for the inorganic scenario. The analysis also showed that combination of either Movement Risk Index (MIRI) or NO 3 -N concentration of the leachate with the NO 3 -N Leached index leads to an improved regression, which provides insight into area-wide associations between agricultural activities and ground water NO 3 -N concentration.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Factors Controlling Pre-Columbian and Early Historic Maize Productivity in the American Southwest, Part 1: The Southern Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande Regions

Maize is the New World's preeminent grain crop and it provided the economic basis for human culture in many regions within the Americas. To flourish, maize needs water, sunlight (heat), and nutrients (e. g., nitrogen). In this paper, climate and soil chemistry data are used to evaluate the potential for dryland (rainon-field) agriculture in the semiarid southeastern Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande regions. Processes that impact maize agriculture such as nitrogen mineralization, infiltration of precipitation, bare soil evaporation, and transpiration are discussed and evaluated. Most of the study area, excepting high-elevation regions, receives sufficient solar radiation to grow maize. The salinities of subsurface soils in the central San Juan Basin are very high and their nitrogen concentrations are very low. In addition, soils of the central San Juan Basin are characterized by pH values that exceed 8.0, which limit the availability of both nitrogen and phosphorous. In general, the San Juan Basin, including Chaco Canyon, is the least promising part of the study area in terms of dryland farming. Calculations of field life, using values of organic nitrogen for the upper 50 cm of soil in the study area, indicate that most of the study area could not support a 10-bushel/acre crop of maize. The concepts, methods, and calculations used to quantify maize productivity in this study are applicable to maize cultivation in other environmental settings across the Americas. ?? 2010 US Government.

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory

Regional and temporal differences in nitrate trends discerned from long-term water quality monitoring data

Riverine nitrate (NO 3 ) is a well-documented driver of eutrophication and hypoxia in coastal areas. The development of the elevated river NO 3 concentration is linked to anthropogenic inputs from municipal, agricultural, and atmospheric sources. The intensity of these sources has varied regionally, through time, and in response to multiple causes such as economic drivers and policy responses. This study uses long-term water quality, land use, and other ancillary data to further describe the evolution of river NO 3 concentrations at 22 monitoring stations in the United States (U.S.). The stations were selected for long-term data availability and to represent a range of climate and land-use conditions. We examined NO 3 at the monitoring stations, using a flow-weighting scheme meant to account for interannual flow variability allowing greater focus on river chemical conditions. River NO 3 concentration increased strongly during 1945-1980 at most of the stations and have remained elevated, but stopped increasing during 1981-2008. NO 3 increased to a greater extent at monitoring stations in the Midwest U.S. and less so at those in the Eastern and Western U.S. We discuss 20th Century agricultural development in the U.S. and demonstrate that regional differences in NO 3 concentration patterns were strongly related to an agricultural index developed using principal components analysis. This unique century-scale dataset adds to our understanding of long-term NO 3 patterns in the U.S.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio