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USGS2015

A centroid model of species distribution with applications to the Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus and house finch Haemorhous mexicanus in the United States

Drastic shifts in species distributions are a cause of concern for ecologists. Such shifts pose great threat to biodiversity especially under unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Many studies have documented recent shifts in species distributions. However, most of these studies are limited to regional scales, and do not consider the abundance structure within species ranges. Developing methods to detect systematic changes in species distributions over their full ranges is critical for understanding the impact of changing environments and for successful conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. Yearly abundance-weighted range centroids are estimated. As case studies, we derive annual centroids for the Carolina wren and house finch in their ranges in the U.S. We further evaluate the first-difference correlation between species’ centroid movement and changes in winter severity, total population abundance. We also examined associations of change in centroids from sub-ranges. Change in full-range centroid movements of Carolina wren significantly correlate with snow cover days (r = −0.58). For both species, the full-range centroid shifts also have strong correlation with total abundance (r = 0.65, and 0.51 respectively). The movements of the full-range centroids of the two species are correlated strongly (up to r = 0.76) with that of the sub-ranges with more drastic population changes. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of centroids for analyzing distribution changes in a two-dimensional spatial context. Particularly it highlights applications that associate the centroid with factors such as environmental stressors, population characteristics, and progression of invasive species. Routine monitoring of changes in centroid will provide useful insights into long-term avian responses to environmental changes.

Ecography↗

USGS2013

Does seeding after wildfires in rangelands reduce erosion or invasive species?

Mitigation of ecological damage caused by rangeland wildfires has historically been an issue restricted to the western United States. It has focused on conservation of ecosystem function through reducing soil erosion and spread of invasive plants. Effectiveness of mitigation treatments has been debated recently. We reviewed recent literature to conduct a meta-analysis of seeding after wildfires to determine if seedings may (1) protect ecosystems against soil erosion and (2) reduce invasion or abundance of undesirable nonnative plant species. Effectiveness of postfire seedings was examined in 8 erosion and 19 invasive species cases. Seeding has little effect on erosion during the first year after fire and is highly dependent upon initial establishment and coverage of species in successive years. Among all seeding cases, 28% reduced, 67% were neutral, and 5% increased invasive species abundance. Older seedings were more likely to show reductions in invasives than younger seedings. Seedings with high plant establishment were more likely to reduce invasives than those with low establishment. Studies are needed that examine (1) frequency of adequate establishment of postfire seedings and causal factors of success or failure, (2) long-term impacts of seeding along a range of initial establishment and concomitant plant coverage over time as it relates to erosion and abundance of invasive plant species, and (3) auxiliary treatments designed to increase likelihood of germination and establishment given the inevitable variability of environmental conditions. These studies would aid land managers in deciding when postfire treatments are required and their likely level of success.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

USGS2020

Comparison of storm runoff models for a small watershed in an urban metropolitan area, Albuquerque, New Mexico

In order to comply with a current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency watershed-based National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit, the City of Albuquerque required a better understanding of the rainfall-runoff processes in its small urban watersheds. That requirement prompted the initiation of the assessment of three existing watershed models that were developed to simulate those processes. Three existing rainfall-runoff modeling software packages—Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) (using two sets of methods), Program for Predicting Polluting Particle Passage Through Pits, Puddles, and Ponds (P8), and Arid-Lands Hydrologic Model (AHYMO)—were compared to determine which provided the best balance of accuracy and usability for simulating storm runoff in small watersheds in the urbanized area of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Additionally, results of this study could help inform model users who have interest in simulating storm runoff in similar urban areas throughout the United States. Each model was used to simulate storm runoff in the Hahn Arroyo watershed, an urbanized watershed with concrete-lined arroyo channels in the northeastern quadrant of Albuquerque that exhibits flashy, monsoonal-driven storm runoff. Model results were compared to observed discharge data, according to literature-recommended performance measures and performance evaluation criteria. The HEC-HMS model using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) and SCS unit hydrograph methods ranked the highest when averaging the individual performance measures (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, percent bias, and coefficient of determination) rankings together across the hourly calibration and validation periods, followed by P8, which was tied with the HEC-HMS initial and constant approach. For daily rankings using the same rank-averaging approach, the HEC-HMS CN-based model and P8 were tied for the highest ranking, followed by the HEC-HMS initial and constant approach. Alternatively, rating performance using validation period results as an indication of the expected confidence in forecasted results for future conditions, the P8 model performed best for both hourly and daily time-steps, followed by the HEC-HMS CN-based model and the HEC-HMS initial and constant-based model. However, based on the literature performance evaluation criteria, the HEC-HMS and P8 models overall had marginally satisfactory performance only for operation at the daily time-step. Direct comparison of the HEC-HMS and P8 models to the AHYMO is difficult, given the different performance assessment criteria used to assess these models separately in this study, as recommended by the literature. The AHYMO results generally lacked precision, given the wide range in the performance assessment values across events in percent error in peak discharge, difference in timing of peak discharge, percent error in total runoff volume, and difference in duration of event relative to observed data. For some events, however, the AHYMO results were fairly accurate, and AHYMO was likely a good predictor of the timing of storm runoff and the shape of the hydrograph. This study did not assess the results for all potential applications of the models in the Albuquerque urbanized area. Further study may be required to assess the model performance capabilities in other modeling applications.

New Mexico↗

USGS2024

Predicting the response of a long-distance migrant to changing environmental conditions in winter

Access to high-quality food is critical for long-distance migrants to provide energy for migration and arrival at breeding grounds in good condition. We studied effects of changing abundance and availability of a marine food, common eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.), on an arctic-breeding, migratory goose, black brant ( Brant bernicla nigricans Lawrence 1846), at a key non-breeding site, Bahía San Quintín, Mexico. Eelgrass, the primary food of brant, is consumed when exposed by the tide or within reach from the water's surface. Using an individual-based model, we predicted effects of observed changes (1991–2013) in parameters influencing food abundance and availability: eelgrass biomass (abundance), eelgrass shoot length (availability, as longer shoots more within reach), brant population size (availability, as competition greater with more birds), and sea level (availability, as less food within reach when sea level higher). The model predicted that the ability to gain enough energy to migrate was most strongly influenced by eelgrass biomass (threshold January biomass for migration = 60 g m −2 dry mass). Conversely, annual variation in population size (except for 1998), was relatively low, and variation in eelgrass shoot length and sea level were not strongly related to ability to migrate. We used observed data on brant body mass at Bahía San Quintín and annual survival to test for effects of eelgrass biomass in the real system. The lowest observed values of body mass and survival were in years when biomass was below 60 g m −2 , although in some years of low biomass body mass and/or survival was higher. This suggests that the real birds may have some capacity to compensate to meet their energy demands when eelgrass biomass is low. We discuss consequences for brant population trends and conservation.

Baja California↗

USGS2022

Demographic and environmental correlates of home ranges and long-distance movements of Mohave ground squirrels

Space use by mammals can differ among age-classes, sexes, or seasons, and these processes are recognized as adaptive behavioral strategies. Semi-fossorial ground squirrels, in particular, have shown age- and sex-specific patterns in their aboveground movement behaviors. We studied space use of Mohave ground squirrels ( Xerospermophilus mohavensis ) at the Freeman Gulch study site in the central region of their range in the Mojave Desert, California. We documented the timing of their full annual cycle, investigated correlates of size of home ranges of adults and distance of long-distance movements by juveniles, and evaluated whether juvenile body masses and movements were related to interannual climatic variation. Adult males emerged from burrows and entered hibernation sooner than did adult females. Home ranges were larger for males ( ⁠ x ¯ "> x ¯ x¯ ± SD = 0.50 ± 0.40 km 2 ) than females (0.05 ± 0.03 km 2 ), especially during the mating season. Maximum distances moved by juveniles did not differ significantly between males (1.6 ± 2.3 km) and females (1.0 ± 1.8 km), and both sexes were equally likely to travel long distances from natal sites. The longest-distance movement we documented was 7.7 km by a juvenile male. Juveniles born in a year of low vegetation productivity gained significantly less mass (97 ± 7 g) and traveled shorter distances than those born in a year of higher vegetation productivity (177 ± 20 g). Our findings were similar to those documented in the Coso Range study site in the northern region of the geographic range of the species, indicating that movement patterns are similar range-wide. Mohave ground squirrels responded strongly to climate variation, and global climate change will likely result in a northward shift in suitable habitats. Informed conservation planning, therefore, will be essential for this rare, declining species.

California↗

USGS2020

Phosphorus runoff risk assessment in karstic regions of the U.S.

The Phosphorus (P) Index risk assessment tool has been widely adopted across the U.S. to identify and rank site vulnerability to P runoff as part of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) nutrient management planning (NMP) process. However, limited success has been achieved in addressing the risk of P loss by subsurface flow pathways, despite its relative importance in certain areas of the U.S., particularly in those States dominated by karst terrain. Here we review how States with varying land areas classified as having karst features address the risk of P runoff during the NMP process. Indices adopted in Illinois and Indiana require setbacks (15 – 72 m widths) around surface karst features. The remaining States with karst, address the risk of P loss in NMP development rather than the application of a P Index. Given the spatially variable hydrogeologic properties of karst, technically rigorous field‐scale factors are unlikely to be developed in the near future.

Agricultural & Environmental Letters↗

USGS2020

A weight-of-evidence approach for defining thermal sensitivity in a federally endangered species

1. Managing for threatened and endangered species under changing environmental conditions is a challenge faced by resource managers worldwide. Lack of basic knowledge of the biology and habitat requirements of these species can contribute to this difficulty, but is confounded by the limitations of working with rare (i.e. few individuals) species or unrefined methods for evaluating stress. 2. A weight of evidence approach was used to evaluate the thermal biology of the federally endangered dwarf wedgemussel ( Alasmidonta heterodon ), utilizing cumulative results from multiple experimental assessments, co-occurring species, and their host fish to begin defining thermal limits and optimal conditions for the species. 3. Results suggest that dwarf wedgemussel and its host fish are thermally sensitive species compared to other Atlantic-slope mussels, with lower critical thermal maximum and selection of reduced temperatures during choice experiments. 4. Physiological studies resulted in lack of statistical significance primarily due to low power which was a function of sample size, one unavoidable problem when studying rare species. Given these limitations, thermal choice and CTM may be more useful endpoints than physiological processes such as clearance and respiration rates when dealing with sample size limitations. 5. These results suggest that management strategies that avoid exposing dwarf wedgemussel and its thermally sensitive host fish to extreme temperatures could be important for species conservation.

New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2002

Coupling of hydrologic transport and chemical reactions in a stream affected by acid mine drainage

Experiments in St. Kevin Gulch, an acid mine drainage stream, examined the coupling of hydrologic transport to chemical reactions affecting metal concentrations. Injection of LiCl as a conservative tracer was used to determine discharge and residence time along a 1497-m reach. Transport of metals downstream from inflows of acidic, metal-rich water was evaluated based on synoptic samples of metal concentrations and the hydrologic characteristics of the stream. Transport of SO 4 and Mn was generally conservative, but in the subreaches most affected by acidic inflows, transport was reactive. Both 0.1-um filtered and particulate Fe were reactive over most of the stream reach. Filtered Al partitioned to the particulate phase in response to high instream concentrations. Simulations that accounted for the removal of SO 4 , Mn, Fe, and Al with first-order reactions reproduced the steady-state profiles. The calculated rate constants for net removal used in the simulations embody several processes that occur on a stream-reach scale. The comparison between rates of hydrologie transport and chemical reactions indicates that reactions are only important over short distances in the stream near the acidic inflows, where reactions occur on a comparable time scale with hydrologic transport and thus affect metal concentrations.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2009

Survival of radio-implanted drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake) in relation to body size and sex

Drymarchon couperi (eastern indigo snake) has experienced population declines across its range primarily as a result of extensive habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation. Conservation efforts for D. couperi have been hindered, in part, because of informational gaps regarding the species, including a lack of data on population ecology and estimates of demographic parameters such as survival. We conducted a 2- year radiotelemetry study of D. couperi on Fort Stewart Military Reservation and adjacent private lands located in southeastern Georgia to assess individual characteristics associated with probability of survival. We used known-fate modeling to estimate survival, and an information-theoretic approach, based on a priori hypotheses, to examine intraspecific differences in survival probabilities relative to individual covariates (sex, size, size standardized by sex, and overwintering location). Annual survival in 2003 and 2004 was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.73-0.97, n = 25) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.52-0.86; n = 27), respectively. Results indicated that body size, standardized by sex, was the most important covariate determining survival of adult D. couperi, suggesting lower survival for larger individuals within each sex. We are uncertain of the mechanisms underlying this result, but possibilities may include greater resource needs for larger individuals within each sex, necessitating larger or more frequent movements, or a population with older individuals. Our results may also have been influenced by analysis limitations because of sample size, other sources of individual variation, or environmental conditions. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

Herpetologica↗

USGS2026

Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama↗

USGS2015

Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua , an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2005

Influence of riffle characteristics, surficial geology, and natural barriers on the distribution of the channel darter, Percina copelandi, in the Lake Ontario basin

The channel darter, Percina copelandi, is a small benthic fish with a wide but disjunct distribution across central North America. The development of conservation and recovery strategies for Canadian populations is limited by a lack of knowledge regarding ecology, population size and other factors that affect its distribution and abundance. We sampled five rivers in the Lake Ontario basin to test whether the distribution of P. copelandi reflected riffle habitat characteristics or landscape-scale factors such as surficial geology and natural barriers (waterfalls). At most sites yielding P. copelandi, riffles flowed into deep sand bottomed run or pool habitats. Despite a lack of association with local surficial geology or riffle habitat characteristics, both the upstream limits of P. copelandi occurrence and distribution of suitable habitats reflected the distribution of waterfalls, chutes and bedrock outcroppings. In contrast to P. copelandi, distributions of Etheostoma flabellare, P. caprodes and Rhinichthys cataractae reflected among site differences in riffle habitat. ?? Springer 2005.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2011

Aeolian and fluvial processes in dryland regions: The need for integrated studies

Aeolian and fluvial processes play a fundamental role in dryland regions of the world and have important environmental and ecological consequences from local to global scales. Although both processes operate over similar spatial and temporal scales and are likely strongly coupled in many dryland systems, aeolian and fluvial processes have traditionally been studied separately, making it difficult to assess their relative importance in drylands, as well as their potential for synergistic interaction. Land degradation by accelerated wind and water erosion is a major problem throughout the world's drylands, and although recent studies suggest that these processes likely interact across broad spatial and temporal scales to amplify the transport of soil resources from and within drylands, many researchers and land managers continue to view them as separate and unrelated processes. Here, we illustrate how aeolian and fluvial sediment transport is coupled at multiple spatial and temporal scales and highlight the need for these interrelated processes to be studied from a more integrated perspective that crosses traditional disciplinary boundaries. Special attention is given to how the growing threat of climate change and land‐use disturbance will influence linkages between aeolian and fluvial processes in the future. We also present emerging directions for interdisciplinary needs within the aeolian and fluvial research communities that call for better integration across a broad range of traditional disciplines such as ecology, biogeochemistry, agronomy, and soil conservation.

California↗

USGS2011

Characteristics of foraging sites and protein status in wintering muskoxen: insights from isotopes of nitrogen

Identifying links between nutritional condition of individuals and population trajectories greatly enhances our understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of wildlife. For northern ungulates, the potential impacts of a changing climate to populations are predicted to be nutritionally mediated through an increase in the severity and variance in winter conditions. Foraging conditions and the availability of body protein as a store for reproduction in late winter may constrain productivity in northern ungulates, yet the link between characteristics of wintering habitats and protein status has not been established for a wild ungulate. We used a non‐invasive proxy of protein status derived from isotopes of N in excreta to evaluate the influence of winter habitats on the protein status of muskoxen in three populations in Alaska (2005–2008). Multiple regression and an information‐theoretic approach were used to compare models that evaluated the influence of population, year, and characteristics of foraging sites (components of diet and physiography) on protein status for groups of muskoxen. The observed variance in protein status among groups of muskoxen across populations and years was partially explained (45%) by local foraging conditions that affected forage availability. Protein status improved for groups of muskoxen as the amount of graminoids in the diet increased (−0.430 ± 0.31, β± 95% CI) and elevation of foraging sites decreased (0.824 ± 0.67). Resources available for reproduction in muskoxen are highly dependent upon demographic, environmental, and physiographic constraints that affect forage availability in winter. Due to their very sedentary nature in winter, muskoxen are highly susceptible to localized foraging conditions; therefore, the spatial variance in resource availability may exert a strong effect on productivity. Consequently, there is a clear need to account for climate–topography effects in winter at multiple scales when predicting the potential impacts of climatic shifts on population trajectories of muskoxen.

Oikos↗

USGS1995

Non-native animals on public lands

Non-native plants and animals have become part of our surroundings, in cities, agricultural areas, and wildlands. While there are many beneficial purposes for non-native animals, such as for food and sport hunting and as agricultural animals, the introduction of some has had major negative economic consequences (Palmer 1899), and adverse effects on native wildlife, plants, and habitats. The British ecologist Charles Elton, in a major review of introduced species, described the increasing number of invasions as constituting "one of the great historical convulsions in the world's flora and fauna" (Elton 1958, p. 31). Non-native species are significant problems on large areas of state and federal public lands, and areas set aside to protect native plant and animal communities are not immune to such harm. Science and conservation journals have devoted entire issues to the threats posed by non-native plants and animals in nature reserves (e.g., Usher et al. 1988). In a compilation of threats to U.S. national parks, non-native plants and animals were the most often reported threat, and were reported by the most areas; feral cats ( Felis catus ), feral dogs ( Canis familiaris ), and wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) were the non-native animals cited most often (NPCA 1977). Non-native species present serious threats, but at the same time, coordinated efforts on public lands offer the best possibility for controlling some harmful non-native species, and protecting both native plant and animal communities and human interests and needs. We compiled information on non-native animals on public and private land-management areas by conducting a mail survey to assess their occurrence and management status in land-management areas. Survey results represent contributions from 937 national parks, national forests, national wildlife refuges, Bureau of Land Management field areas, and state and private land-management areas. The results reflect those species that land managers considered of greatest concern, and their general distribution on public lands. Non-native invertebrate animals, particularly forest insects and agricultural pests, cause severe economic and environmental damage as well (OTA 1993), but were not the focus of this survey.

Book chapter↗

USGS2024

Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways

The Central Valley of California (CVC) and Mid-Atlantic (MA) in the U.S. are both critical sites for nationwide food security, and many waterfowl species annually, especially during the winter, providing feeding and roosting locations for a variety of species. Mapping waterfowl distributions, using NEXRAD, may aid in the adaptive management of important waterfowl habitat and allow various government agencies to better understand the interface between wild and domestic birds and commercial agricultural practices. We used 9 years (2014–2023) of data from the US NEXRAD network to model winter waterfowl relative abundance in the CVC and MA as a function of weather, temporal period, environmental conditions, and landcover characteristics using boosted regression tree modelling. We were able to quantify the variability in effect size of 28 different covariates across space and time within two geographic regions which are critical to nationwide waterfowl management and host a high density of nationally important commercial agriculture. In general, weather, geographic (distance to features), and landcover condition (wetness index) predictors had the strongest relative effect on predicting wintering waterfowl relative abundance in both regions, while effects of land cover composition were more regionally and temporally specific. Increased daily mean temperature was a major predictor of increasing relative waterfowl abundance in both regions throughout the winter. Increasing precipitation had differing effects within regions, increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the MA, while decreasing in general within the CVC. Increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the CVC are strongly tied to the flooding of the landscape and rice availability, whereas waterfowl in the MA, where water is less limiting, are generally governed by waste grain availability and emergent wetland on the landscape. Waterfowl relative abundance in the MA was generally higher nearer to the Atlantic coast and lakes, while in the CVC they were higher nearer to lakes. Our findings promote a better understanding of spatial associations of waterfowl to landscape features and may aid in conservation and biosecurity management protocols.

California, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North ↗

USGS2024

Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways

The Central Valley of California (CVC) and Mid-Atlantic (MA) in the U.S. are both critical sites for nationwide food security (California Poultry Federation 2016, Prosser et al. 2017), and many waterfowl species annually, especially during the winter, providing feeding and roosting locations for a variety of species. Mapping waterfowl distributions, using NEXRAD, may aid in the adaptive management of important waterfowl habitat and allow various government agencies to better understand the interface between wild and domestic birds and commercial agricultural practices. We used 9 years (2014–2023) of data from the US NEXRAD network to model winter waterfowl relative abundance in the CVC and MA as a function of weather, temporal period, environmental conditions, and landcover characteristics using Boosted Regression Tree modelling. We were able to quantify the variability in effect size of 28 different covariates across space and time within two geographic regions which are critical to nationwide waterfowl management and host a high density of nationally important commercial agriculture. In general, weather, geographic (distance to features), and landcover condition (wetness index) predictors had the strongest relative effect on predicting wintering waterfowl relative abundance in both regions, while effects of land cover composition were more regionally and temporally specific. Increased daily mean temperature was a major predictor of increasing relative waterfowl abundance in both regions throughout the winter. Increasing precipitation had differing effects within regions, increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the MA, while decreasing in general within the CVC. Increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the CVC are strongly tied to the flooding of the landscape and rice availability, whereas waterfowl in the MA, where water is less limiting, are generally governed by waste grain availability and emergent wetland on the landscape. Waterfowl relative abundance in the MA was generally higher nearer to the Atlantic coast and lakes, while in the CVC they were higher nearer to lakes. Our findings promote a better understanding of spatial associations of waterfowl to landscape features and may aid in conservation and biosecurity management protocols.

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