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U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are in the forefront of the effort to understand what causes changes in the hydrology, the ecology and the water quality of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and the San Francisco Bay estuary. Their scientific findings play a crucial role in how agencies manage the Bay-Delta on a daily basis.
The demands of increasing human population in the coastal zone create competition with coastal habitat preservation and with recreational and commercial uses of the coast and nearshore waters. As climate changes over the coming century, these problems facing coastal communities will likely worsen. Good management and policy decision-making require baseline information on the rates, trends, and scientific understanding of the processes of coastal change on a regional to national scale. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is engaged in a research project of national scope to measure, report, and interpret historical shoreline change along open-ocean coasts of the United States. One of the primary goals of this project is to understand shoreline change hazards using methods that are comparable from one area of the country to another and that will allow for future, repeatable analyses of shoreline movement, coastal erosion, and land loss.
Urbanization affects streamflow characteristics, coastal flooding, and groundwater recharge. Increasing impervious areas, streamflow diversions, and groundwater pumpage are some of the ways that the natural water cycle is affected by urbanization. Assessment of the relations among these factors and changes in land use helps water-resource managers with issues such as stormwater management and vulnerability to flood and drought. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have the expertise to monitor and model urban hydrologic systems. Streamflow and groundwater data are available in national databases, and analyses of these data, including identification of long-term streamflow trends and the efficacy of management practices, are published in USGS reports.
There is growing interest in integrating community science data with structured monitoring data to estimate changes in distribution patterns of imperiled species, including pollinators. However, significant challenges remain in determining how unstructured community science data should be incorporated into formal analyses of species distributions. We developed a dynamic framework for combining community science and structured monitoring data of bumble bees to estimate changes in occupancy of rusty-patched bumble bees ( Bombus affinis ), a federally endangered species in the United States. We applied traditional metapopulation theory and accounted for imperfect detection to estimate site-specific extirpation risk and colonization rates across the known distribution of B. affinis in the Upper Midwest (USA). Despite a 144% increase in presence-only detections from 2017 to 2022, occupancy probabilities and the estimated number of occupied sites remained static or declined slightly across a 4-state region during this period. Our results provide preliminary evidence that the probability of local extirpation risk of B. affinis increased in response to drought, but that effect was tempered with a high number of neighboring patches occupied by B. affinis (i.e., rescue effect). Our framework can be used by managers to track population recovery goals for B. affinis and other bumble bees of conservation concern. In addition, our study highlights the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and addressing spatial sampling biases in bumble bee monitoring efforts, particularly those for which a portion of the monitoring data are generated from community science projects.
The global spread of invasive species in aquatic ecosystems has prompted population control efforts to mitigate negative impacts on native species and ecosystem functions. Removal programs that optimally allocate removal effort across space and time offer promise for improving invader suppression or eradication, especially given the limited resources available to these programs. However, science-based guidance to inform such programs remains limited. This study leverages two intensive fish removal programs for nonnative green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) in intermittent streams of the Bill Williams River basin in Arizona, USA, to explore alternative management strategies involving variable allocation of removal effort in time and space and compare static versus dynamic decision rules. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate demographic parameters using existing removal data, with evidence that both removal programs led to at least a 0.39 probability of eradication. Simulated alternative management strategies revealed that population suppression, but not eradication, could be achieved with reduced effort, and that dynamic management practices that respond to species abundance in real time can improve the efficiency of removal efforts. High removal frequency and program duration, including continued monitoring after zero fish were captured, contributed to successful population control. With management efforts struggling to keep pace with the rising spread and impacts of invasive species, this research demonstrates the utility of quantitative removal models to help improve invasive removal programs and robustly evaluate the success of population suppression and eradication.
Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.
Greenhouse experiments were undertaken to identify soil factors that curtail growth of the exotic annual grass Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass) without significantly inhibiting growth of native perennial grasses (here represented by Hilaria jamesii [Torr.] Benth). We grew B. tectorum and H. jamesii alone (monoculture pots) and together (combination pots) in soil treatments that manipulated levels of soil phosphorus, potassium, and sodium. Hilaria jamesii showed no decline when its aboveground biomass in any of the applied treatments was compared to the control in either the monoculture or combination pots. Monoculture pots of B. tectorum showed a decline in aboveground biomass with the addition of Na 2 HPO 4 and K 2 HPO 4. Interestingly, in pots where H. jamesii was present, the negative effect of these treatments was ameliorated. Whereas the presence of B. tectorum generally decreased the aboveground biomass of H. jamesii (comparing aboveground biomass in monoculture versus combination pots), the presence of H. jamesii resulted in an enhancement of B. tectorum aboveground biomass by up to 900%. We hypothesize that B. tectorum was able to obtain resources from H. jamesii, an action that benefited B. tectorum while generally harming H. jamesii. Possible ways resources may be gained by B. tectorum from native perennial grasses include (1) B. tectorum is protected from salt stress by native plants or associated soil biota; (2) when B. tectorum is grown with H. jamesii, the native soil biota is altered in a way that favors B. tectorum growth, including B. tectorum tapping into the mycorrhizal network of native plants and obtaining resources from them; (3) B. tectorum can take advantage of root exudates from native plants, including water and nutrients released by natives via hydraulic redistribution; and (4) B. tectorum is able to utilize some combination of the above mechanisms. In summary, land managers may find adding soil treatments can temporarily suppress B. tectorum and enhance the establishment of native plants. However, the extirpation of B. tectorum is unlikely, as many native grasses are likely to facilitate its growth. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists from the Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) conduct scientific investigations of submerged coastal and marine resources using new and existing technologies. Each contributing technique, method, or product adds to our understanding of coastal and marine resources and provides information for resource-management decisionmaking. In support of this mission, the USGS St. Petersburg office maintains a fleet of research vessels used for inland, coastal, and open-water marine surveys and investigations. Each vessel has advantages and limitations related to water depth, carrying capacity, speed, operation in open water, and other functions. These research platforms are staffed by experienced technical and scientific professionals with expertise in marine navigation, geology, geophysics, engineering, biology, and oceanography.
This document provides guidelines for assessing exposure to future coastal flooding during extreme coastal water level events – whether these are due to tides, surge, wave run-up, or, more likely, a combination of the three. These guidelines provide information about the current and future magnitude of extreme coastal water levels across Washington State and the underlying processes that influence them. This information is intended to be combined with sea level projections to assess future exposure to coastal flooding along Washington’s coastline. Although the results of our analyses can be combined with any available sea level projections, this report is intended as a companion to the localized sea level rise projections (Miller et al., 2018) developed as part of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. The Washington Coastal Resilience Project was a three-year effort to rapidly increase the state’s capacity to prepare for sea level rise. The project aimed to improve risk projections, provide better guidelines for land use planners and strengthen capital investment programs for coastal restoration and infrastructure. Partners in the Washington Coastal Resilience Project included Washington Sea Grant, Washington Department of Ecology, Island County, King County, NOAA Office for Coastal Management, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Padilla Bay National Estuary Research Reserve, The City of Tacoma, The Nature Conservancy, U.S. Geological Survey, University of Oregon, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and Western Washington University. The 2018 sea level projections are described in an accompanying technical report, along with a review of the science related to sea level rise (Miller et al., 2018). The report and all associated supporting information are available on the Washington Coastal Hazards Resilience Network website (http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/).
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The San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary and its watershed have been a focus of intense human activity and environmental impact since 1848 when gold was discovered in the foothills of California's Sierra Nevada mountains. As the estuary and its watershed continue to be changed by human activities, resource managers, environmental regulators, elected officials, and the public seek credible, unbiased scientific information about the factors related to observed changes in order to restore impaired species, habitats and ecological functions.
Environmental flows represent a legal mechanism to balance existing and future water uses and sustain non-use values. Here, we identify current challenges, provide examples where they are important, and suggest research advances that would benefit environmental flow science. Specifically, environmental flow science would benefit by (1) developing approaches to address streamflow needs in highly modified landscapes where historic flows do not provide reasonable comparisons, (2) integrating water quality needs where interactions are apparent with quantity but not necessarily the proximate factor of the ecological degradation, especially as frequency and magnitudes of inflows to bays and estuaries, (3) providing a better understanding of the ecological needs of native species to offset the often unintended consequences of benefiting non-native species or their impact on flows, (4) improving our understanding of the non-use economic value to balance consumptive economic values, and (5) increasing our understanding of the stakeholder socioeconomic spatial distribution of attitudes and perceptions across the landscape. Environmental flow science is still an emerging interdisciplinary field and by integrating socioeconomic disciplines and developing new frameworks to accommodate our altered landscapes, we should help advance environmental flow science and likely increase successful implementation of flow standards.
Accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) is poised to reshape coastal environments over the coming decades, providing a challenge to land managers who need actionable information. Mangroves have an innate ability to keep pace with some SLR but may drown under the higher rates projected by the end of the century. Understanding local mangrove resilience to SLR requires understanding of historic and contemporary accretion rates, productivity, and forest elevations relative to tidal inundation. We applied the WARMER3 modeling framework to assess future mangrove resilience to SLR and blue carbon storage across the “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island in southwest Florida, USA. We found that Sanibel mangroves are sensitive to the SLR scenario, with projected losses ranging from 19 to 70% by 2100. Across SLR scenarios, projected areal extent was similar until about 2035 and then diverge, coincident with projected acceleration in the rate of SLR. Threshold analysis indicates found that Sanibel mangroves are likely to submerge when rates exceed 6.5 mm yr −1 . Currently, the mangrove forest of our study domain holds an estimated 214,000 Mg of carbon but is likely to decrease as mangroves convert to open water in the second half of this century. For “Ding” Darling, these site-specific projections identify when losses in mangrove resources are most likely, providing a basis to prioritize local management actions and conservation resources.
Ecological restoration treatments are being implemented at an increasing rate in ponderosa pine and other dry conifer forests across the western United States, via the USDA Forest Service’s Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration (CFLR) program. In this program, collaborative stakeholder groups work with National Forests (NFs) to adaptively implement and monitor ecological restoration treatments intended to offset the effects of many decades of anthropogenic stressors. We initiated a novel study to expand the scope of treatment effectiveness monitoring efforts in one of the first CFLR landscapes, Colorado’s Front Range. We used a Before/After/Control/Impact framework to evaluate the short-term consequences of treatments on numerous ecological properties. We collected pre-treatment and one year post-treatment data on NF and partner agencies’ lands, in 66 plots distributed across seven treatment units and nearby untreated areas. Our results reflected progress toward several treatment objectives: treated areas had lower tree density and basal area, greater openness, no increase in exotic understory plants, no decrease in native understory plants, and no decrease in use by tree squirrels and ungulates. However, some findings suggested the need for adaptive modification of both treatment prescriptions and monitoring protocols: treatments did not promote heterogeneity of stand structure, and monitoring methods may not have been robust enough to detect changes in surface fuels. Our study highlights both the effective aspects of these restoration treatments, and the importance of initiating and continuing collaborative science-based monitoring to improve the outcomes of broad-scale forest restoration efforts.
Sediment cores taken near extant springs along the western margin of Soda Lake playa, as well as from the playa center, reveal dramatic hydrologic changes that occurred in the central Mojave Desert during the late Quaternary. Results of stratigraphic, chronologic, physical, chemical, and microfossil analyses of seven cores, ranging in length from 5 to 23 m, help refine the timing and character of the final stages of pluvial Lake Mojave during the late Pleistocene and define distinct periods of wetland development in the early and late Holocene. Evidence shows that an incipient lake occupied the central Soda Lake basin by at least 25.0 ka (ka = thousands of calibrated 14 C years before present), and a fully developed Lake Mojave was present between 20.5 and 12.8 ka, before receding and ultimately yielding to playa conditions by 11.0 ka. Organic-rich “black mats” appear in several cores along the playa margin between 10.7 and 9.0 ka, suggesting that spring-fed wetlands persisted in this area long after the lake had regressed. The basin remained relatively dry throughout most of the Holocene until wetland ecosystems expanded along the margins between 0.73 and 0.18 ka, coincident with part of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. Overall, our results demonstrate that buried sediments surrounding extant and extinct springs can be used to reconstruct past hydrologic conditions in desert environments on a variety of spatial and temporal scales, and provide important baseline information for effective management of limited desert resources.
Fewer F 2 hybrids between even- and odd-broodline pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ), which are lines that are genetically isolated by their strict two-year life cycle, survived than did F 2 controls, indicating outbreeding depression. Cryopreserved sperm of 40 broodyear 1990 males and of 40 broodyear 1991 males fertilized equal subsamples of eggs from 40 broodyear 1992 females. Return rates of F 1 hybrids (1.73%) and controls (1.63%) in 1994 did not differ significantly ( P =0.30). F 2 hybrid and control crosses were made from 40 males and 40 females selected at random from each return group. Offspring were differentially marked and released. In 1996, returns differed significantly ( P =0.011) between hybrids ( n =34, 0.34%) and controls ( n =44, 0.42%). The low rate of return of the control fish was similar to the measured return of a much larger group of tagged Auke Creek pink salmon, and probably not an artifact of the experiment. Although no increase in fluctuating asymmetry of paired meristic counts was observed in either F 1 or F 2 hybrids, size and some meristic counts of hybrids exceed measurements of controls, suggesting heterosis for those traits. The observations of decreased survival in F 2 hybrids confirm previous work [Gharrett, A.J., Smoker, W.W., 1991. Two generations of hybrids between even- and odd-year pink salmon ( O. gorbuscha ). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science 48(9) 1744–1749]. Although genetic divergence between pink salmon broodlines is large and outbreeding depression might be expected in such unlikely hybrids, the results document the occurrence of outbreeding depression in salmon and signal caution in making management and aquacultural decisions that may create the possibility of outbreeding depression in self-sustaining or cultured populations.
Hydrologic and irrigation regimes mediate the timing of selenium (Se) mobilization to rivers, but the extent to which patterns in Se uptake and trophic transfer through recipient food webs reflect the temporal variation in Se delivery is unknown. We investigated Se mobilization, partitioning, and trophic transfer along approximately 60 river miles of the selenium-impaired segment of the Lower Gunnison River (Colorado, USA) during six sampling trips between June 2015 and October 2016. We found temporal patterns in Se partitioning and trophic transfer to be independent of those in dissolved Se concentrations and that the recipient food web sustained elevated Se concentrations from earlier periods of high Se mobilization. Using an ecosystem-scale Se accumulation model tailored to the Lower Gunnison River, we predicted that the endangered Razorback Sucker ( Xyrauchen texanus ) and Colorado Pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus lucius ) achieve whole-body Se concentrations exceeding aquatic life protection criteria during periods of high runoff and irrigation activity (April–August) that coincide with susceptible phases of reproduction and early-life development. The results of this study challenge assumptions about Se trophodynamics in fast-flowing waters and introduce important considerations for the management of Se risks for biota in river ecosystems.
Water samples collected during three sampling trips to Lake Erie displayed oxygen isotopic values of dissolved phosphate (δ 18 O p ) that were largely out of equilibrium with ambient conditions, indicating that source signatures may be discerned. δ 18 O p values in the Lake ranged from +10‰ to +17‰, whereas the equilibrium value was expected to be around +14‰. The riverine weighted average δ 18 O p value was +11‰ and may represent one source of phosphate to the Lake. The lake δ 18 O p values indicated that there must be one or more as yet uncharacterized source(s) of phosphate with a high δ 18 O p value. Potential sources other than rivers are not yet well-characterized with respect to δ 18 O of phosphate, but we speculate that a likely source may be the release of phosphate from sediments under reducing conditions created during anoxic events in the hypolimnion of the central basin of Lake Erie. Identifying potential phosphorus sources to the Lake is vital for designing effective management plans for reducing nutrient inputs and associated eutrophication.