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At least 1,765 records · Page 98Linked to original sources

USGS2011

Increasing accuracy of dispersal kernels in grid-based population models

Dispersal kernels in grid-based population models specify the proportion, distance and direction of movements within the model landscape. Spatial errors in dispersal kernels can have large compounding effects on model accuracy. Circular Gaussian and Laplacian dispersal kernels at a range of spatial resolutions were investigated, and methods for minimizing errors caused by the discretizing process were explored. Kernels of progressively smaller sizes relative to the landscape grid size were calculated using cell-integration and cell-center methods. These kernels were convolved repeatedly, and the final distribution was compared with a reference analytical solution. For large Gaussian kernels ( σ > 10 cells), the total kernel error was <10 −11 compared to analytical results. Using an invasion model that tracked the time a population took to reach a defined goal, the discrete model results were comparable to the analytical reference. With Gaussian kernels that had σ ≤ 0.12 using the cell integration method, or σ ≤ 0.22 using the cell center method, the kernel error was greater than 10%, which resulted in invasion times that were orders of magnitude different than theoretical results. A goal-seeking routine was developed to adjust the kernels to minimize overall error. With this, corrections for small kernels were found that decreased overall kernel error to <10 −11 and invasion time error to <5%.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2024

Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) resource selection: Trade-offs between forage and predation risk

Ungulates commonly select habitat with higher forage biomass and or nutritional quality to improve body condition and fitness. However, predation risk can alter ungulate habitat selection and foraging behavior and may affect their nutritional condition. Ungulates often choose areas with lower predation risk, sometimes sacrificing higher quality forage. This forage–predation risk trade-off can be important for life history strategies and influences individual nutritional condition and population vital rates. We used GPS collar data from adult female mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) to model mule deer habitat selection in relation to forage conditions, stalking cover and predation risk from mountain lions to determine if a forage-predation risk trade-off existed for mule deer in central New Mexico. We also examined mountain lion kill sites and mule deer foraging locations to assess trade-offs at a finer scale. Forage biomass and protein content were inversely correlated with horizontal visibility, hence associated with higher stalking cover for mountain lions, suggesting a forage-predation risk trade-off for mule deer. Mule deer habitat selection was influenced by forage biomass and protein content at the landscape and within home range spatial scales, with forage protein being related to habitat selection during spring and summer and forage biomass during winter. However, mule deer selection for areas with better foraging conditions was constrained by landscape-scale encounter risk for mountain lions, such that increasing encounter risk was associated with diminished selection for areas with better foraging conditions. Mule deer also selected for areas with higher visibility when mountain lion predation risk was higher. Mountain lion kill sites were best explained by decreasing horizontal visibility and available forage protein, suggesting that deer may be selecting for forage quality at the cost of predation risk. A site was 1.5 times more likely to be a kill site with each 1-meter decrease in visibility (i.e., increased stalking cover). Mule deer selection of foraging sites was related to increased forage biomass, further supporting the potential for a trade-off scenario. Mule deer utilized spatio-temporal strategies and risk-conditional behavior to reduce predation risk, and at times selected suboptimal foraging areas with lower predation risk.

New Mexico↗

USGS2006

Fish assemblage responses to water withdrawals and water supply reservoirs in Piedmont streams

Understanding effects of flow alteration on stream biota is essential to developing ecologically sustainable water supply strategies. We evaluated effects of altering flows via surface water withdrawals and instream reservoirs on stream fish assemblages, and compared effects with other hypothesized drivers of species richness and assemblage composition. We sampled fishes during three years in 28 streams used for municipal water supply in the Piedmont region of Georgia, U.S.A. Study sites had permitted average withdrawal rates that ranged from < 0.05 to > 13 times the stream’s seven-day, ten-year recurrence low flow (7Q10), and were located directly downstream either from a water supply reservoir or from a withdrawal taken from an unimpounded stream. Ordination analysis of catch data showed a shift in assemblage composition at reservoir sites corresponding to dominance by habitat generalist species. Richness of fluvial specialists averaged about 3 fewer species downstream from reservoirs, and also declined as permitted withdrawal rate increased above about 0.5 to one 7Q10-equivalent of water. Reservoir presence and withdrawal rate, along with drainage area, accounted for 70% of the among-site variance in fluvial specialist richness and were better predictor variables than percent of the catchment in urban land use or average streambed sediment size. Increasing withdrawal rate also increased the odds that a site’s Index of Biotic Integrity score fell below a regulatory threshold indicating biological impairment. Estimates of reservoir and withdrawal effects on stream biota could be used in predictive landscape models to support adaptive water supply planning intended to meet societal needs while conserving biological resources.

Georgiq↗

USGS2013

Broad timescale forcing and geomorphic mediation of tidal marsh flow and temperature dynamics

Tidal marsh functions are driven by interactions between tides, landscape morphology, and emergent vegetation. Less often considered are the diurnal pattern of tide extremes and seasonal variation of solar insolation in the mix of tidal marsh driver interactions. This work demonstrates how high-frequency hydroperiod and water temperature variability emerges from disparate timescale interactions between tidal marsh morphology, tidal harmonics, and meteorology in the San Francisco Estuary. We compare the tidal and residual flow and temperature response of neighboring tidal sloughs, one possessing natural tidal marsh morphology, and one that is modified for water control. We show that the natural tidal marsh is tuned to lunar phase and produces tidal and fortnight water temperature variability through interacting tide, meteorology, and geomorphic linkages. In contrast, temperature variability is dampened in the modified slough where overbank marsh plain connection is severed by levees. Despite geomorphic differences, a key finding is that both sloughs are heat sinks in summer by latent heat flux-driven residual upstream water advection and sensible and long-wave heat transfer. The precession of a 335-year tidal harmonic assures that these dynamics will shift in the future. Water temperature regulation appears to be a key function of natural tidal sloughs that depends critically on geomorphic mediation. We investigate approaches to untangling the relative influence of sun versus tide on residual water and temperature transport as a function of system morphology. The findings of this study likely have ecological consequences and suggest physical process metrics for tidal marsh restoration performance.

California↗

USGS2021

Dynamic selection for forage quality and quantity in response to phenology and insects in an Arctic ungulate

Spatiotemporal variation in forage is a primary driver of ungulate behavior, yet little is known about the nutritional components they select, and how selection varies across the growing season with changes in forage quality and quantity. We addressed these uncertainties in barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), which experience their most important foraging opportunities during the short Arctic summer. Recent declines in Arctic caribou populations have raised concerns about the influence of climate change on summer foraging opportunities, given shifting vegetation conditions and insect harassment, and their potential effects on caribou body condition and demography. We examined Arctic caribou selection of summer forage by pairing locations from females in the Central Arctic Herd of Alaska with spatiotemporal predictions of biomass, digestible nitrogen (DN), and digestible energy (DE). We then assessed selection for these nutritional components across the growing season at landscape and patch scales, and determined whether foraging opportunities were constrained by insect harassment. During early summer, at the landscape scale, caribou selected for intermediate biomass and high DN and DE, following expectations of the forage maturation hypothesis. At the patch scale, however, caribou selected for high values of all forage components, particularly DN, suggesting that protein may be limiting. During late summer, after DN declined below the threshold for protein gain, caribou exhibited a switch at both spatial scales, selecting for higher biomass, likely enabling mass and fat deposition. Mosquito activity strongly altered caribou selection of forage and increased their movement rates, while oestrid fly activity had little influence. Our results demonstrate that early and late summer periods afford Arctic caribou distinct foraging opportunities, as they prioritize quality earlier in the summer and quantity later. Climate change may further constrain caribou access to DN as earlier, warmer Arctic summers may be associated with reduced DN and increased mosquito harassment.

Alaska↗

USGS2010

Modeling and mapping Golden-winged Warbler abundance to improve regional conservation strategies

Conservation planning requires identifying pertinent habitat factors and locating geographic locations where land management may improve habitat conditions for high priority species. I derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundance for the Golden-winged Warbler ( Vermivora chrysoptera ), a species of high conservation concern, using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at multiple spatial scales. My aim was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create a predictive abundance map for purposes of conservation planning for the Golden-winged Warbler. My models indicated a substantial influence of landscape conditions, including strong positive associations with total forest composition within the landscape. However, many of the associations I observed were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents; for instance, I found Golden-winged Warblers negatively associated with several measures of edge habitat. No single spatial scale dominated, indicating that this species is responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. I found Golden-winged Warbler abundance was negatively related with Blue-winged Warbler ( Vermivora cyanoptera ) abundance. I also observed a north-south spatial trend suggestive of a regional climate effect that was not previously noted for this species. The map of predicted abundance indicated a large area of concentrated abundance in west-central Wisconsin, with smaller areas of high abundance along the northern periphery of the Prairie Hardwood Transition. This map of predicted abundance compared favorably with independent evaluation data sets and can thus be used to inform regional planning efforts devoted to conserving this species.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2018

Measuring and evaluating ecological flows from streams to regions: Steps towards national coverage

Living aquatic communities are largely determined and maintained by the volume and quality of flowing waters, both within lotic systems and in receiving waters of coastal systems. However, flow is one of the most frequently and extensively altered features of rivers and streams; alteration effects are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Lotic systems vary and different fish species need different environmental conditions, and distinct problems are evident at various spatial scales. New synoptic flow and biological information now make it possible to evaluate the effects of altered flows throughout the Great Lakes Region at scales from the stream reach to the Region. We used estimates of river and streamflow and observed fish abundances to develop tools that specify the response of fish to alterations in those flows. We fit the logistic model to a cumulative fish abundance curve as a function of yield providing an empirical means to develop models of the response of cumulative fish abundance to flows. Response zones of yield for each species in each system type (based on size and thermal class) illustrate how criteria may be developed that can be used in decision‐making for management of flows. In our example application, we evaluate both the general response of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) abundances (and fish diversity) to changes in flows and assess the sensitivity of each stream fish community to flow alteration. Mapping stream sensitivity to flow alteration throughout the US Great Lakes Region with a multiscale spatial framework showed how regional variability in sensitivity for any fish species or assemblage may be evaluated and provides managers with information to help determine where the best opportunities for protection or restoration of streamflows and associated communities exist. These results provide valuable tools and critical information to managers responsible for balancing water uses and maintaining high quality lotic ecosystems. These methods may be applied to any geographic region and can be extended nationally or globally, where flow, temperature, fish and landscape data are available.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗

USGS2018

Observer-free experimental evaluation of habitat and distance effects on the detection of anuran and bird vocalizations

Acoustic surveys of vocalizing animals are conducted to determine density, distribution, and diversity. Acoustic surveys are traditionally performed by human listeners, but automated recording devices (ARD) are becoming increasingly popular. Signal strength decays, or attenuates, with increasing distance between source and receiver and some habitat types may differentially increase attenuation beyond the effects of distance alone. These combined effects are rarely accounted for in acoustic monitoring programs. We evaluated the performance of three playback devices and three ARD models using the calls of six anurans, six birds, and four pure tones. Based on these evaluations, we determined the optimal playback and recording devices. Using these optimal devices, we broadcast and recorded vocalizations in five habitat types along 1,000 m transects. We used generalized linear models to test for effects of habitat, distance, species, environmental, and landscape variables. We predicted detection probabilities for each vocalization, in each habitat type, from 0 to 1,000 m. Among playback devices, only a remote predator caller simulated vocalizations consistently. Differences of ~10 dB were observed among ARDs. For all species, we found differences in detectability between open and closed canopy habitats. We observed large differences in predicted detection probability among species in each habitat type, as well as along 1,000 m transects. Increases in temperature, barometric pressure, and wind speed significantly decreased detection probability. However, aside from differences among species, habitat, and distance, topography impeding a line‐of‐sight between sound source and receiver had the greatest negative influence on detections. Our results suggest researchers should model the effects of habitat, distance, and frequency on detection probability when performing acoustic surveys. To optimize survey design, we recommend pilot measurements among varying habitats.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2017

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation and water balance on fire severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. Proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high fire severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.

California↗

USGS2016

Use of lidar point cloud data to support estimation of residual trace metals stored in mine chat piles in the Old Lead Belt of southeastern, Missouri

Historic lead and zinc (Pb-Zn) mining in southeast Missouri’s ―Old Lead Belt‖ has left large chat piles dominating the landscape where prior to 1972 mining was the major industry of the region. As a result of variable beneficiation methods over the history of mining activity, these piles remain with large quantities of unrecovered Pb and Zn and to a lesser extent cadmium (Cd). Quantifying the residual content of trace metals in chat piles is problematic because of the extensive field effort that must go into collecting elevation points for volumetric analysis. This investigation demonstrates that publicly available lidar point data from the U.S. Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) can be used to effectively calculate chat pile volumes as a method of more accurately estimating the total residual trace metal content in these mining wastes. Five chat piles located in St. Francois County, Missouri, were quantified for residual trace metal content. Utilizing lidar point cloud data collected in 2011 and existing trace metal concentration data obtained during remedial investigations, residual content of these chat piles ranged from 9247 to 88,579 metric tons Pb, 1925 to 52,306 metric tons Zn, and 51 to 1107 metric tons Cd. Development of new beneficiation methods for recovering these constituents from chat piles would need to achieve current Federal soil screening standards. To achieve this for the five chat piles investigated, 42 to 72% of residual Pb would require mitigation to the 1200 mg/kg Federal non-playground standard, 88 to 98% of residual Zn would require mitigation to the Ecological Soil Screening level (ESSL) for plant life, and 70% to 98% of Cd would require mitigation to achieve the ESSL. Achieving these goals through an existing or future beneficiation method(s) would remediate chat to a trace metal concentration level that would support its use as a safe agricultural soil amendment.

Missouri↗

USGS2019

Mapping a keystone shrub species, huckleberry (Vaccinium membranaceum), using seasonal colour change in the Rocky Mountains

Black huckleberries ( Vaccinium membranaceum ) provide a critical food resource to many wildlife species, including apex omnivores such as the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ), and play an important socioeconomic role for many communities in western North America, especially indigenous peoples. Remote sensing imagery offers the potential for accurate landscape-level mapping of huckleberries because the shrub changes colour seasonally. We developed two methods, for local and regional scales, to map a shrub species using leaf seasonal colour change from remote sensing imagery. We assessed accuracy with ground-based vegetation surveys. The high-resolution supervised random forest classification from one-meter resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery achieved an overall accuracy of 75.31% (kappa = 0.26). The approach using multi-temporal 30-meter Landsat imagery similarly had an overall accuracy of 79.19% (kappa = .31). We found underprediction error was related to higher forest cover and a lack of visible colour change on the ground in some plots. Where forest cover was low, both models performed better. In areas with <10% forest cover, the high-resolution classification achieved an accuracy of 80.73% (kappa = 0.48), while the Landsat model had an accuracy of 82.55% (kappa = 0.47). Based on the fine-scale predictions, we found that 94% of huckleberry shrubs identified in our study area of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA are over 100 meters from human recreation trails. This information could be combined with productivity and phenology information to estimate the timing and availability of food resources for wildlife and to provide managers with a tool to identify and manage huckleberries. The development of the multi-temporal Landsat models sets the stage for assessment of impacts of disturbance at regional scales on this ecologically, culturally, and economically important shrub species. Our approach to map huckleberries is straightforward, efficient and accessible to wildlife and environmental managers and researchers in diverse fields.

Montana↗

USGS2018

Assessment of Alaska rain-on-snow events using dynamical downscaling

The ice formed by cold-season rainfall or rain on snow (ROS) has striking impacts on the economy and ecology of Alaska. An understanding of the atmospheric drivers of ROS events is required to better predict them and plan for environmental change. The spatially/temporally sparse network of stations in Alaska makes studying such events challenging, and gridded reanalysis or remote sensing products are necessary to fill the gaps. Recently developed dynamically downscaled climate data provide a new suite of high-resolution variables for investigating historical and projected ROS events across all of Alaska from 1979 to 2100. The dynamically downscaled reanalysis data of ERA-Interim replicated the seasonal patterns of ROS events but tended to produce more rain events than in station observations. However, dynamical downscaling reduced the bias toward more rain events in the coarse reanalysis. ROS occurred most frequently over southwestern and southern coastal regions. Extreme events with the heaviest rainfall generally coincided with anomalous high pressure centered to the south/southeast of the locations receiving the event and warm-air advection from the resulting southwesterly wind flow. ROS events were projected to increase in frequency overall and for extremes across most of the region but were expected to decline over southwestern/southern Alaska. Increases in frequency were projected as a result of more frequent winter rainfall, but the number of ROS events may ultimately decline in some areas as a result of temperatures rising above the freezing threshold. These projected changes in ROS can significantly affect wildlife, vegetation, and human activities across the Alaska landscape.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

The Ozark Highlands

The Ozark Highlands include diverse topographic, geologic, soil, and hydrologic conditions that support a broad range of habitat types. The landscape features rugged uplands - some peaks higher than 2,500 feet above sea level - with exposed rock and varying soil depths and includes extensive areas of karst terrain. The Highlands are characterized by extreme biological diversity and high endemism (uniqueness of species). Vegetation communities are dominated by open oak-hickory and shortleaf pine woodlands and forests. Included in this vegetation matrix is an assemblage of various types of fens, forests, wetlands, fluvial features, and carbonate and siliceous glades. An ever-growing human population in the Ozark Highlands has become very dependent on reservoirs constructed on major rivers in the region and, in some cases, groundwater for household and public water supply. Because of human population growth in the Highlands and increases in industrial and agricultural activities, not only is adequate water quantity an issue, but maintaining good water quality is also a challenge. Point and nonpoint sources of excessive nutrients are an issue. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnership programs to monitor water quality and develop simulation tools to help stakeholders better understand strategies to protect the quality of water and the environment are extremely important. The USGS collects relevant data, conducts interpretive studies, and develops simulation tools to help stakeholders understand resource availability and sustainability issues. Stakeholders dependent on these resources are interested in and benefit greatly from evolving these simulation tools (models) into decision support systems that can be used for adaptive management of water and ecological resources. The interaction of unique and high-quality biological and hydrologic resources and the effects of stresses from human activities can be evaluated best by using a multidisciplinary approach that the USGS can provide. Information varying from defining baseline resource conditions to developing simulation models will help resource managers and users understand the human impact on resource sustainability. Varied expertise and experience in biological and water-resources activities across the entire Highlands make the USGS a valued collaborator in studies of Ozark ecosystems, streams, reservoirs, and groundwater. A large part of future success will depend on the involvement and active participation of key partners.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2015

Modeling elk and bison carrying capacity for Great Sand Dunes National Park, Baca National Wildlife Refuge, and The Nature Conservancy's Medano Ranch, Colorado

Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and the neighboring Baca National Wildlife Refuge constitute an extraordinary setting that offers a variety of opportunities for outdoor recreation and natural resource preservation in the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Adjacent to these federal lands, the Nature Conservancy (TNC) manages the historic Medano Ranch. The total land area of these three conservation properties is roughly 121,500 hectares (ha). It is a remote and rugged area in which resource managers must balance the protection of natural resources with recreation and neighboring land uses. The management of wild ungulates in this setting presents challenges, as wild ungulates move freely across public and private landscapes. The San Luis Valley was historically used for irrigated agriculture and ranching. Historically, livestock, including sheep ( Ovis aries ) and cattle ( Bos taurus ), were grazed throughout the valley. The former Luis Marie “Baca” Ranch, which makes up the northern part of Great Sand Dunes National Park (hereafter “Park”) and all of the Baca National Wildlife Refuge (hereafter “Refuge”), was actively grazed by cattle until 2004. Bison ( Bison bison ), elk ( Cervus elaphus ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), and pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) were native to the area until about the 1840s, when bison, elk, and pronghorn were extirpated. Elk and pronghorn likely moved back into the area from surrounding populations to the north and south, and mule deer populations have varied through time. A population of 4,400 elk currently inhabits the area. The current bison population was established in 1986 for meat production. In 1999 TNC purchased the ranch and established a bison conservation herd, and eventually subcontracted management to a private rancher in 2005. A population of bison ranging in size from 1,200–2,000 ranges freely within the 16,100 ha Medano Ranch. Ungulate populations in the valley are regulated by hunting, with the exception of bison, which are rounded up and culled annually to maintain population levels. In an effort to create and form the basis of a multi-agency ungulate management plan for the region, the Park sought the development of an elk and bison ecological carrying capacity model to provide guidance to resource managers.

Colorado↗

USGS1997

Photosynthesis of green algal soil crust lichens from arid lands in southern Utah, USA: Role of water content on light and temperature responses of CO2 exchange

Biotic soil crusts are a worldwide phenomenon in arid and semi-arid landscapes. Metabolic activity of the poikilohydric organisms found in these crusts is dominated by quick and drastic changes in moisture availability and long periods of drought. Under controlled conditions, we studied the role of water content on photosynthetic and respiratory CO 2 exchange of three green algal soil crust lichens from a desert site in southern Utah (USA): Diploschistes diacapsis (A ch .) L umbsch , Psora cerebriformis W. W eber , and Squamarina lentigera (W eber ) P oelt . Photosynthetic metabolism is activated by extremely small amounts of moisture; lower compensation values for net photosynthesis (NP) are reached between 0.05 and 0.27 mm of precipitation equivalent. Thus, the lichens can use very low degrees of hydration for carbon gain. Maximal NP occurs between 0.39 and 0.94 mm precipitation equivalent, and area-related rates equal 2.6–5.2 μmol CO 2 m −2 s −1 . All three tested species show ‘sun plant’ features, including high light requirements for CO 2 exchange compensation and for NP saturation. Diploschistes diacapsis maintains high rates of NP at full water saturation. In contrast, suprasaturated thalli of the other two species show a strong depression in NP which can be removed or reduced by increased external CO 2 concentration. Consequently, this depression is most probably caused by increased thallus diffusive resistances due to pathway blockage by water. This depression will greatly limit carbon gain of these species in the field after heavy rain. It occurs at all temperatures of ecological relevance and also under conditions of low light. However, maximum water holding capacity of P. cerebriformis and S. lentigera is higher than that of D. diacapsis . This could mean that periods of hydration favorable for metabolic activity for those two species last longer than those of D. diacapsis . This might compensate for their lower rates of NP during suprasaturation. Thus, two different strategies might have developed for lichen existence in the specific and extreme arid soil crust habitat. Data about habitat conditions for the different lichen species are needed in order to test this hypothesis and to allow interpretation and prediction of perfonnance of these soil crust lichens in nature.

Utah↗

USGS2021

Forecasting community reassembly using climate-linked spatio-temporal ecosystem models

Ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human activities, altering linkages among physical and biological components. Spatial community reassembly occurs when these human impacts modify the spatial overlap between system components, and there is need for practical tools to forecast spatial community reassembly at landscape scales using monitoring data. To illustrate a new approach, we extend a generalization of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which involves a spatio‐temporal ecosystem model that approximates coupled physical, biological and human dynamics. We then demonstrate its application to five trophic levels for the eastern Bering Sea by fitting to multiple, spatially unbalanced datasets measuring physical characteristics (temperature measurements and climate‐linked forecasts), primary producers (spring and fall size‐fractionated chlorophyll‐a), secondary producers (copepods), juveniles (age‐0 walleye pollock), adult consumers (five commercially important fishes), human activities (seasonal fishing effort) and mobile predators (seabirds). We identify the spatial niche for each ecosystem component, as well as dominant modes of variability that are highly correlated with a known bottom–up driver of dynamics. We then measure spatial overlap between interacting variables (using Schoener's‐D) and identify that age‐0 pollock have decreased spatial overlap with copepods and increased overlap with adult pollock during warm years, and also that adult pollock have increased overlap with arrowtooth flounder and decreased overlap with catcher–processor fishing effort during these warm years. Given the warming conditions that are projected for the coming decade, the model forecasts increased prey and competitor overlap involving adult pollock (between age‐0 pollock, adult pollock and arrowtooth flounder) and decreased overlap with the copepod forage base and with the catcher–processor fishery during future warming. We recommend that joint species distribution models be extended to incorporate ‘ecological teleconnections' (correlations between distant locations arising from known mechanisms) arising from behavioral adaptation by mobile animals as well as passive advection of nutrients and planktonic juvenile stages.

Ecography↗

USGS2016

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) as restoration bioindicators in the Florida Everglades

The federally threatened American crocodile ( Crocodylus acutus ) is a flagship species and ecological indicator of hydrologic restoration in the Florida Everglades. We conducted a long-term capture-recapture study on the South Florida population of American crocodiles from 1978 to 2015 to evaluate the effects of restoration efforts to more historic hydrologic conditions. The study produced 10,040 crocodile capture events of 9,865 individuals and more than 90% of captures were of hatchlings. Body condition and growth rates of crocodiles were highly age-structured with younger crocodiles presenting with the poorest body condition and highest growth rates. Mean crocodile body condition in this study was 2.14±0.35 SD across the South Florida population. Crocodiles exposed to hypersaline conditions (> 40 psu) during the dry season maintained lower body condition scores and reduced growth rate by 13% after one year, by 24% after five years, and by 29% after ten years. Estimated hatchling survival for the South Florida population was 25% increasing with ontogeny and reaching near 90% survival at year six. Hatchling survival was 34% in NE Florida Bay relative to a 69% hatchling survival at Crocodile Lake National Wildlife Refuge and 53% in Flamingo area of Everglades National Park. Hypersaline conditions negatively affected survival, growth and body condition and was most pronounced in NE Florida Bay, where the hydrologic conditions have been most disturbed. The American crocodile, a long-lived animal, with relatively slow growth rate provides an excellent model system to measure the effects of altered hydropatterns in the Everglades landscape. These results illustrate the need for continued long-term monitoring to assess system-wide restoration outcomes and inform resource managers.

Florida↗