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At least 1,765 records · Page 98Linked to original sources

Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r 2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20–25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

Oregon, Washington↗

Rock-stratigraphic nomenclature, lithology, and subcrop area of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit in Illinois and Wisconsin

The Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is a dependable source of ground water for many private well owners and some municipal-water-supply systems in northern Illinois (Hackett, 1960) and in Wisconsin. The carbonate lithology of the unit contributes to the availability of ground water and also to the susceptibility of the unit to ground-water contamination. Susceptibility to contamination is greatest in areas where the unit is overlain by only a thin layer (less than 50 feet) of soil or unconsolidated glacial deposits. Within the study area in Illinois and Wisconsin (fig. 1), volatile organic compounds and other contaminants have been detected in groundwater samples from various sites (Kay and others, 1989; Mills, 1993a, 1993b; Kay and others, 1994). Known and suspected sources of contaminants are numerous, including landfills and industrial facilities. To determine the possible effects of contamination on the ground-water supply, an understanding of the regional hydrogeologic framework of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is needed. Published map and point data describing the geologic and hydrologic properties of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit are available from many sources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5, has selected and compiled pertinent data. The objective of this study is to publish these data in a series of concise map reports and a bibliographic report listing available sources of information by county for the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit. Investigators involved in site-specific studies within the subcrop area will be able to utilize these reports to design effective site investigations. This report presents the rock-stratigraphic nomenclature of the lithologic units that make up the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit (fig.2) and provides a brief, generalized description of the lithologic characteristics of each unit. Sources with more detailed descriptions of lithology can be found below in SELECTED REFERENCES. Figure 3 is a map, created from published maps of various scales, showing the areal extent of the Galena-Platteville subcrop and major known geologic structural features in Illinois and Wisconsin. The subcrop area of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is that area where the unit crops out, or is the uppermost bedrock unit and is overlain by soil or glacial deposits. The unit is present at depth under younger bedrock units south and east of the subcrop area and is absent north and west of the subcrop area. Data sources used to prepare the map are included in SELECTED REFERENCES.

Illinois, Wisconsin↗

Classifying and mapping wetlands and peat resources using digital cartography

Digital cartography allows the portrayal of spatial associations among diverse data types and is ideally suited for land use and resource analysis. We have developed methodology that uses digital cartography for the classification of wetlands and their associated peat resources and applied it to a 1:24 000 scale map area in New Hampshire. Classifying and mapping wetlands involves integrating the spatial distribution of wetlands types with depth variations in associated peat quality and character. A hierarchically structured classification that integrates the spatial distribution of variations in (1) vegetation, (2) soil type, (3) hydrology, (4) geologic aspects, and (5) peat characteristics has been developed and can be used to build digital cartographic files for resource and land use analysis. The first three parameters are the bases used by the National Wetlands Inventory to classify wetlands and deepwater habitats of the United States. The fourth parameter, geological aspects, includes slope, relief, depth of wetland (from surface to underlying rock or substrate), wetland stratigraphy, and the type and structure of solid and unconsolidated rock surrounding and underlying the wetland. The fifth parameter, peat characteristics, includes the subsurface variation in ash, acidity, moisture, heating value (Btu), sulfur content, and other chemical properties as shown in specimens obtained from core holes. These parameters can be shown as a series of map data overlays with tables that can be integrated for resource or land use analysis.

Conference Paper↗

Shallow groundwater in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska—Conceptualization and simulation of flow

The Matanuska-Susitna Valley is in the Upper Cook Inlet Basin and is currently undergoing rapid population growth outside of municipal water and sewer service areas. In response to concerns about the effects of increasing water use on future groundwater availability, a study was initiated between the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey. The goals of the study were (1) to compile existing data and collect new data to support hydrogeologic conceptualization of the study area, and (2) to develop a groundwater flow model to simulate flow dynamics important at the regional scale. The purpose of the groundwater flow model is to provide a scientific framework for analysis of regional-scale groundwater availability. To address the first study goal, subsurface lithologic data were compiled into a database and were used to construct a regional hydrogeologic framework model describing the extent and thickness of hydrogeologic units in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. The hydrogeologic framework model synthesizes existing maps of surficial geology and conceptual geochronologies developed in the study area with the distribution of lithologies encountered in hundreds of boreholes. The geologic modeling package Geological Surveying and Investigation in Three Dimensions (GSI3D) was used to construct the hydrogeologic framework model. In addition to characterizing the hydrogeologic framework, major groundwater-budget components were quantified using several different techniques. A land-surface model known as the Deep Percolation Model was used to estimate in-place groundwater recharge across the study area. This model incorporates data on topography, soils, vegetation, and climate. Model-simulated surface runoff was consistent with observed streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated on the basis of records from major water suppliers during 2004-2010. Fluxes between groundwater and surface water were estimated during field investigations on several small streams. Regional groundwater flow patterns were characterized by synthesizing previous water-table maps with a synoptic water-level measurement conducted during 2009. Time-series water-level data were collected at groundwater and lake monitoring stations over the study period (2009–present). Comparison of historical groundwater-level records with time-series groundwater-level data collected during this study showed similar patterns in groundwater-level fluctuation in response to precipitation. Groundwater-age data collected during previous studies show that water moves quickly through the groundwater system, suggesting that the system responds quickly to changes in climate forcing. Similarly, the groundwater system quickly returns to long-term average conditions following variability due to seasonal or interannual changes in precipitation. These analyses indicate that the groundwater system is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, characterized by water-level fluctuation about a constant average state, with no long-term trends in aquifer-system storage. To address the second study goal, a steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to simulate regional groundwater flow patterns. The groundwater flow model was bounded by physically meaningful hydrologic features, and appropriate internal model boundaries were specified on the basis of conceptualization of the groundwater system resulting in a three-layer model. Calibration data included 173 water‑level measurements and 18 measurements of streamflow gains and losses along small streams. Comparison of simulated and observed heads and flows showed that the model accurately simulates important regional characteristics of the groundwater flow system. This model is therefore appropriate for studying regional-scale groundwater availability. Mismatch between model-simulated and observed hydrologic quantities is likely because of the coarse grid size of the model and seasonal transient effects. Next steps towards model refinement include the development of a transient groundwater flow model that is suitable for analysis of seasonal variability in hydraulic heads and flows. In addition, several important groundwater budget components remain poorly quantified—including groundwater outflow to the Matanuska River, Little Susitna River, and Knik Arm.

Alaska↗

Habitat features predict carrying capacity of a recovering marine carnivore

The recovery of large carnivore species from over‐exploitation can have socioecological effects; thus, reliable estimates of potential abundance and distribution represent a valuable tool for developing management objectives and recovery criteria. For sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ), as with many apex predators, equilibrium abundance is not constant across space but rather varies as a function of local habitat quality and resource dynamics, thereby complicating the extrapolation of carrying capacity ( K ) from one location to another. To overcome this challenge, we developed a state‐space model of density‐dependent population dynamics in southern sea otters ( E. l. nereis ), in which K is estimated as a continuously varying function of a suite of physical, biotic, and oceanographic variables, all described at fine spatial scales. We used a theta‐logistic process model that included environmental stochasticity and allowed for density‐independent mortality associated with shark bites. We used Bayesian methods to fit the model to time series of survey data, augmented by auxiliary data on cause of death in stranded otters. Our model results showed that the expected density at K for a given area can be predicted based on local bathymetry (depth and distance from shore), benthic substrate composition (rocky vs. soft sediments), presence of kelp canopy, net primary productivity, and whether or not the area is inside an estuary. In addition to density‐dependent reductions in growth, increased levels of shark‐bite mortality over the last decade have also acted to limit population expansion. We used the functional relationships between habitat variables and equilibrium density to project estimated values of K for the entire historical range of southern sea otters in California, USA, accounting for spatial variation in habitat quality. Our results suggest that California could eventually support 17,226 otters (95% CrI = 9,739–30,087). We also used the fitted model to compute candidate values of optimal sustainable population abundance (OSP) for all of California and for regions within California. We employed a simulation‐based approach to determine the abundance associated with the maximum net productivity level (MNPL) and propose that the upper quartile of the distribution of MNPL estimates (accounting for parameter uncertainty) represents an appropriate threshold value for OSP. Based on this analysis, we suggest a candidate value for OSP (for all of California) of 10,236, which represents 59.4% of projected K .

California↗

Tidal, Residual, Intertidal Mudflat (TRIM) Model and its Applications to San Francisco Bay, California

A numerical model using a semi-implicit finite-difference method for solving the two-dimensional shallow-water equations is presented. The gradient of the water surface elevation in the momentum equations and the velocity divergence in the continuity equation are finite-differenced implicitly, the remaining terms are finite-differenced explicitly. The convective terms are treated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian method. The combination of the semi-implicit finite-difference solution for the gravity wave propagation, and the Eulerian-Lagrangian treatment of the convective terms renders the numerical model unconditionally stable. When the baroclinic forcing is included, a salt transport equation is coupled to the momentum equations, and the numerical method is subject to a weak stability condition. The method of solution and the properties of the numerical model are given. This numerical model is particularly suitable for applications to coastal plain estuaries and tidal embayments in which tidal currents are dominant, and tidally generated residual currents are important. The model is applied to San Francisco Bay, California where extensive historical tides and current-meter data are available. The model calibration is considered by comparing time-series of the field data and of the model results. Alternatively, and perhaps more meaningfully, the model is calibrated by comparing the harmonic constants of tides and tidal currents derived from field data with those derived from the model. The model is further verified by comparing the model results with an independent data set representing the wet season. The strengths and the weaknesses of the model are assessed based on the results of model calibration and verification. Using the model results, the properties of tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay are characterized and discussed. Furthermore, using the numerical model, estimates of San Francisco Bay's volume, surface area, mean water depth, tidal prisms, and tidal excursions at spring and neap tides are computed. Additional applications of the model reveal, qualitatively the spatial distribution of residual variables.

Califoronia↗

Did ice-charging generate volcanic lightning during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska?

The 2016–2017 shallow submarine eruption of Bogoslof volcano in Alaska injected plumes of ash and seawater to maximum heights of ~ 12 km. More than 4550 volcanic lightning strokes were detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and Vaisala’s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) over 9 months. Lightning assisted monitoring efforts by confirming ash-producing explosions in near-real time, but only 32 out of the 70 explosive events produced detectable lightning. What led to electrical activity within some of the volcanic plumes, but not others? And why did the lightning intensity wax and wane over the lifetime of individual explosions? We address these questions using multiparametric observations from ground-based lightning sensors, satellite imagery, photographs, acoustic signals, and 1D plume modeling. Detailed time-series of monitoring data show that the plumes did not produce detectable lightning until they rose higher than the atmospheric freezing level (approximated by − 20 °C temperatures). For example, on 28 May 2017 (event 40), the delayed onset of lightning coincides with modeled ice formation in upper levels of the plume. Model results suggest that microphysical conditions inside the plume rivaled those of severe thunderstorms, with liquid water contents > 5 g m −3 and vigorous updrafts > 40 m s −1 in the mixed-phase region where liquid water and ice coexist. Based on these findings, we infer that ‘thunderstorm-style’ collisional ice-charging catalyzed the volcanic lightning. However, charge mechanisms likely operated on a continuum, with silicate collisions dominating electrification in the near-vent region, and ice charging taking over in the upper-level plumes. A key implication of this study is that lightning during the Bogoslof eruption provided a reliable indicator of sustained, ash-rich plumes (and associated hazards) above the atmospheric freezing level.

Alaska↗

A survey of recent results in passive sampling of water and air by semipermeable membrane devices

A survey is presented of some recent results for passive sampling of water and air for trace organic contaminants using lipid-filled semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs). Results of water sampling for trace organochlorine compounds using simultaneously exposed SPMDs and the most universally applied biomonitor (bivalves) are discussed. In general, the total amounts of accumulated analytes available for analysis in bivalves and SPMDs were comparable. However, SPMD controls typically had negligible levels of contamination, which was not always the case for transplanted bivalves, even after prolonged depuration prior to exposure. In surveys of the spatial trends of organochlorines at a series of sites, data from bivalves and SPMDs provided the same picture of contaminant distribution and severity. An exception was ionizable contaminants such as the chlorinated phenolic compounds and their transformation products found in pulp mill effluents. In these cases the two monitoring approaches compliment each other, i.e. what is not found in bivalves appears in SPMDs and vice versa. SPMDs have also been applied in environments where biomonitoring is not feasible. SPMDs have shown their utility in studies of trace levels of polyaromatic hydrocarbons by locating and characterizing point sources. An example is given of their application to the calculation of contaminant half-lives from aqueous SPMD residues, a direct measurement of the persistence of contaminants in an environmental compartment. Similarly, results of air sampling with SPMDs in a relatively pristine coastal location are cited which reveal a tremendous enhancement in p,p′ -DDE relative to open ocean values.

Marine Pollution Bulletin↗

Airflows and turbulent flux measurements in mountainous terrain: Part 2: Mesoscale effects

The location of the Niwot Ridge Ameriflux site within the rocky mountains subjects it to airflows which are common in mountainous terrain. In this study, we examine the effects of some of these mesoscale features on local turbulent flux measurements; most notably, the formation of valley/mountain flows and mountain lee-side waves. The valley/mountain flows created local non-stationarities in the wind flow caused by the passage of a lee-side convergence zone (LCZ) in which upslope and downslope flows met in the vicinity of the measurement tower. During June–August, 2001, possible lee-side convergences were flagged for ∼26% of all half-hour daytime flux measurement periods. However, there was no apparent loss of flux during these periods. On some relatively stable, summer nights, turbulence (designated via σ w ), and scalar fluctuations (temperature and CO 2 , for example) exhibited periodicities that appeared congruent with passage of low frequency gravity waves ( τ ∼ 20 min). Spectral peaks at 0.0008 Hz (20 min) in both vertical velocity and scalar spectra were observed and indicated that 25–50% of the total scalar covariances were accounted for by the low frequency waves. During some periods of strong westerly winds (predominantly in winter), large mountain gravity waves were observed to form. Typically, the flux tower resided within a region of downslope “shooting flow”, which created high turbulence, but had no detrimental effect on local flux measurements based on valid turbulence statistics and nearly complete energy budget closure. Periodically, we found evidence for re-circulating, rotor winds in the simultaneous time series of wind data from the Ameriflux tower site and a second meteorological site situated 8 km upslope and to the West. Only 14% of the half-hour time periods that we examined for a 4 month period in the winter of 2000–2001 indicated the possible existence of rotor winds. On average, energy budget closure was ∼20% less during periods with rotor occurrence compared to those without. Results from this study demonstrate that the potential exists for relatively rare, yet significant influences of mesoscale wind flow patterns on the local half-hour flux measurements at this site. Occurrence of these events could be detected through examination of normal turbulence statistical parameters.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

A graphical method to evaluate predominant geochemical processes occurring in groundwater systems for radiocarbon dating

A graphical method is described for identifying geochemical reactions needed in the interpretation of radiocarbon age in groundwater systems. Graphs are constructed by plotting the measured 14 C, δ 13 C, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and are interpreted according to specific criteria to recognize water samples that are consistent with a wide range of processes, including geochemical reactions, carbon isotopic exchange, 14 C decay, and mixing of waters. The graphs are used to provide a qualitative estimate of radiocarbon age, to deduce the hydrochemical complexity of a groundwater system, and to compare samples from different groundwater systems. Graphs of chemical and isotopic data from a series of previously-published groundwater studies are used to demonstrate the utility of the approach. Ultimately, the information derived from the graphs is used to improve geochemical models for adjustment of radiocarbon ages in groundwater systems.

Chemical Geology↗

Evaluation of land performance in Senegal using multi-temporal NDVI and rainfall series

Time series of rainfall data and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used to evaluate land cover performance in Senegal, Africa, for the period 1982–1997, including analysis of woodland/forest, agriculture, savanna, and steppe land cover types. A strong relationship exists between annual rainfall and season-integrated NDVI for all of Senegal ( r =0.74 to 0.90). For agriculture, savanna, and steppe areas, high positive correlations portray ‘normal’ land cover performance in relation to the rainfall/NDVI association. Regions of low correlation might indicate areas impacted by human influence. However, in the woodland/forest area, a negative or low correlation (with high NDVI) may reflect ‘normal’ land cover performance, due in part to the saturation effect of the rainfall/NDVI association. The analysis identified three areas of poor performance, where degradation has occurred over many years. Use of the ‘Standard Error of the Estimate’ provided essential information for detecting spatial anomalies associated with land degradation.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

Critical metals in manganese nodules from the Cook Islands EEZ, abundances and distributions

The Cook Islands (CIs) Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) encompasses 1,977,000 km 2 and includes the Penrhyn and Samoa basins abyssal plains where manganese nodules flourish due to the availability of prolific nucleus material, slow sedimentation rates, and strong bottom currents. A group of CIs nodules was analyzed for mineralogical and chemical composition, which include many critical metals not before analyzed for CIs nodules. These nodules have varying sizes and nuclei material; however all are composed predominantly of δ-MnO 2 and X-ray amorphous iron oxyhydroxide. The mineralogy, Fe/Mn ratios, rare earth element contents, and slow growth rates (mean 1.9 mm/10 6 years) reflect formation primarily by hydrogenetic precipitation. The paucity of diagenetic input can be explained by low primary productivity at the surface and resultant low organic matter content in seafloor sediment, producing oxic seafloor and sub-seafloor environments. The nodules contain high mean contents of Co (0.41%), Ni (0.38%), Ti (1.20%), and total rare earth elements plus yttrium (REY; 0.167%), and also high contents of Mo, Nb, V, W, and Zr. Compiled data from a series of four cruises by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Mining agency of Japan from 1985 to 2000 were used to generate a map that defines the statistical distribution of nodule abundance throughout the EEZ, except the Manihiki Plateau. The abundance distribution map shows a belt of high nodule abundance (19–45 kg/m 2 ) that starts in the southeast corner of the EEZ, runs northwest, and also bifurcates into a SW trending branch. Small, isolated areas contain abundances of nodules of up to 58 kg/m 2 . Six ~ 20,000 km 2 areas of particularly high abundance were chosen to represent potential exploration areas, and maps for metal concentration were generated to visualize metal distribution and to extrapolate estimated metal tonnages within the six sites and the EEZ as a whole. Grades for Mn, Cu, and Ni are low in CIs nodules in areas of high abundance; however, Ti, Co, and REY show high contents where nodule abundances are high. Of the six areas identified to represent a range of metal contents, one at the northern end of the N-S abundance main belt optimizes the most metals and would yield the highest dry metric tons for Mn (61,002,292), Ni (1,247,834), Mo (186,166), V (356,247), W (30,215), and Zr (195,323). When compared with the Clarion–Clipperton Zone, the CIs nodules show higher nodule abundances (> 25 kg/m 2 over ~ 123,844 km 2 ), and are more enriched in the green-tech, high-tech, and energy metals Co, Ti, Te, Nb, REY, Pt, and Zr. The CIs EEZ shows a significant resource potential for these critical metals due to their high prices, high demand, and the high nodule abundance, which will allow for a smaller footprint for a 20-year mine site and therefore smaller environmental impact.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

Mapping changing distributions of dominant species in oil-contaminated salt marshes of Louisiana using imaging spectroscopy

The April 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill was the largest coastal spill in U.S. history. Monitoring subsequent change in marsh plant community distributions is critical to assess ecosystem impacts and to establish future coastal management priorities. Strategically deployed airborne imaging spectrometers, like the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), offer the spectral and spatial resolution needed to differentiate plant species. However, obtaining satisfactory and consistent classification accuracies over time is a major challenge, particularly in dynamic intertidal landscapes. Here, we develop and evaluate an image classification system for a time series of AVIRIS data for mapping dominant species in a heavily oiled salt marsh ecosystem. Using field-referenced image endmembers and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA), we classified 21 AVIRIS images acquired during the fall of 2010, 2011 and 2012. Classification results were evaluated using ground surveys that were conducted contemporaneously to AVIRIS collection dates. We analyzed changes in dominant species cover from 2010 to 2012 for oiled and non-oiled shorelines. CDA discriminated dominant species with a high level of accuracy (overall accuracy = 82%, kappa = 0.78) and consistency over three imaging dates (overall 2010 = 82%, overall 2011 = 82%, overall 2012 = 88%). Marshes dominated by Spartina alterniflora were the most spatially abundant in shoreline zones (≤ 28 m from shore) for all three dates (2010 = 79%, 2011 = 61%, 2012 = 63%), followed by Juncus roemerianus (2010 = 11%, 2011 = 19%, 2012 = 17%) and Distichlis spicata (2010 = 4%, 2011 = 10%, 2012 = 7%). Marshes that were heavily contaminated with oil exhibited variable responses from 2010 to 2012. Marsh vegetation classes converted to a subtidal, open water class along oiled and non-oiled shorelines that were similarly situated in the landscape. However, marsh loss along oil-contaminated shorelines doubled that of non-oiled shorelines. Only S. alterniflora dominated marshes were extensively degraded, losing 15% (354,604 m 2 ) cover in oiled shoreline zones, suggesting that S. alterniflora marshes may be more vulnerable to shoreline erosion following hydrocarbon stress, due to their landscape position.

Louisiana↗

Deformation near the Casa Diablo geothermal well field and related processes Long Valley caldera, Eastern California, 1993-2000

Regional first-order leveling lines, which extend from Lee Vining, CA, to Tom's Place, CA, have been surveyed periodically since 1957 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Geodetic Survey (NGS), and Caltrans. Two of the regional survey lines, or leveling networks, intersect at the Casa Diablo geothermal well field. These leveling networks, referenced to a distant bench mark (C916) near Lee Vining, provide time-series vertical control data of land-surface deformation that began around 1980. These data are also useful for delineating localized subsidence at Casa Diablo related to reservoir pressure and temperature changes owing to geothermal development that began in 1985. A comparison of differences in bench-mark elevations for five time periods between 1983 and 1997 shows the development and expansion of a subsidence bowl at Casa Diablo. The subsidence coincides spatially with the geothermal well field and temporally with the increased production rates and the deepening of injection wells in 1991, which resulted in an increase in the rate of pressure decline. The subsidence, superimposed on a broad area of uplift, totaled about 310 mm by 1997. The USGS established orthogonal tilt arrays in 1983 to better monitor deformation across the caldera. One tilt array (DBR) was established near what would later become the Casa Diablo geothermal well field. This array responded to magmatic intrusions prior to geothermal development, tilting away from the well field. With the start of geothermal fluid extraction in 1985, tilt at the DBR array reversed direction and began tilting into the well field. In 1991, geothermal power production was increased by a factor of four, and reservoir pressures began a period of steep decline. These changes caused a temporary three-fold increase in the tilt rate. The tilt rate became stable in 1993 and was about 40% lower than that measured in 1991-1992, but still greater than the rates measured during 1985-1990. Data from the local leveling networks spanning the well field and the bounding graben were analyzed for several 2-year periods (1993-1995, 1995-1997, and 1997-1999). Annual rates of change across the normal faults bounding the graben have steadily decreased for each 2-year period between 1993 and 1999, reflecting the slowing decline in geothermal reservoir pressure. Horizontal control data from a two-color electronic distance meter (EDM) defined the lateral extent of subsidence at Casa Diablo. The EDM and leveling data elucidate the localized effect of the shallow source of subsidence and the broader effect of the deeper magmatic inflation source. Data from bench marks common to both the vertical and the horizontal control networks were used to assess the effect of subsidence on the EDM base station (CASA). Modeling of geodetic data collected during periods of little or no magmatic inflation indicated that the CASA two-color EDM station is being drawn toward the well field at a rate of 3-5 mm/yr. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Geodetic constraints on a 25-year magmatic inflation episode near Three Sisters, central Oregon

Crustal inflation near the Three Sisters volcanic center documented since the mid-1990s has persisted for more than two decades. We update past analyses of the event through 2020 by simultaneously inverting InSAR interferograms, GPS time series, and leveling data for time-dependent volcanic deformation source parameters. We explore several source models to estimate how the deformation rate varied through time and to identify parameters that can reproduce measured deformation. Our preferred model is a Mogi source 4.1 km below sea level (5.9 km below the surface) about 5 km west of the summit of South Sister. Inflation started in late 1995 or 1996; the rate increased rapidly during 1998–1999, and peaked in late 1999, resulting in maximum surface uplift of about 30 cm by mid-2020. Since 2000, the inflation rate generally declined exponentially with a time constant of about 6 years. Two source inflation scenarios fit the data equally well. In the first, the crust surrounding the source is elastic and the net source-volume increase, which we attribute to persistent magma input, has been about 49 × 10 6 m 3 . The second scenario adds a viscoelastic shell surrounding the Mogi source. In that case, an injection of about 21 × 10 6 m 3 of magma prior to 2000, followed by continuing relaxation of the viscoelastic shell, can account for most of the observed surface deformation. In both scenarios, modeling reveals quasiperiodic increases in the inflation rate (pulses) with a recurrence interval of 3–4 years, both before and after 2000.

Oregon↗

Applications of bistatic radar to volcano topography – A review of 10 years of TanDEM-X

The TanDEM-X satellite mission has revolutionized DEM generation from spaceborne synthetic aperture radar. In addition to the primary objective of generating a consistent digital elevation model with global coverage and unprecedented accuracy, the mission has acquired time series of topographic data over several volcanoes, providing an excellent opportunity to test the use of this innovative dataset for volcano monitoring and research. In this article, we review the utilization of the single-pass TanDEM-X data for studying various kinds of volcanic activity, such as basaltic lava flows, the formation and destruction of lava domes and related pyroclastic density currents, and subsurface magma withdrawal and intrusion. We then consider the uses of these data for hazard assessment and forecasting. Our goal is to highlight the importance of timely and repeated topographic information in volcanology, and to suggest the development of future spaceborne bistatic synthetic aperture radar satellite missions, such as ESA's Earth Explorer 10 candidate mission, “Harmony.”

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth O↗

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982-2006

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by ±60 days and in standard deviation by ±20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.

Global Change Biology↗

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold, temperature); and. (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-y.r periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators. ?? 2010 by the Ecological society of America.

Ecological Applications↗