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At least 1,765 records · Page 98Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Influence of habitat structure and prey abundance on cccupancy and abundance of two anole ecomorphs, Anolis cristatellus and Anolis krugi, in secondary karst forests in northern Puerto Rico

Ecological studies strive to identify factors that explain patterns of species distribution and abundance. In lizards, competition and predation are major forces influencing distribution and abundance, but there is also increasing evidence pointing at the influence of habitat structure and prey abundance. Our work explored the latter further by quantifying the effects of vegetation and prey abundance on occupancy and abundance (i.e., estimated probability of detecting more than two individuals) of two sympatrically occurring species in the northern karst belt of Puerto Rico. We hypothesized that Anolis cristatellus would occur in trunk–ground substrates and Anolis krugi on grass–bush substrates according to their ecomorphological classification. We also hypothesized that prey abundance, a component of habitat quality, would have a positive and strong effect on occupancy and abundance. Anolis cristatellus exhibited high occupancy rates (>0.80), influenced by mid-story tree size. A. cristatellus abundance fluctuated over time, with highest probability of detecting two or more individuals in January–March and July–September when prey abundance transitioned from low to high levels. Occupancy of A. krugi was positively influenced by sapling density and prey abundance. Prey abundance exerted a stronger influence on occupancy, but its influence on abundance was negative and strong. Biological interactions and the type of understory substrates may explain the negative relationship. Our study supported predicted relationships between ecomorphology and habitat, but also showed that higher prey abundance may not always translate to higher local abundance. We shed light on these interactions, knowledge needed to advance anole conservation in the advent of land use and climate change.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2016

Predictive mapping of seabirds, pinnipeds and cetaceans off the Pacific Coast of Washington

About this report This report supports Washington-led marine spatial planning and responsible stewardship of natural and cultural resources by the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. Washington state agencies and the sanctuary continually seek the best available science to improve management of marine uses and stewardship of resources (Etheridge et al., 2010; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2015a). This report and associated data provide new, state- and sanctuary-requested information on seabird, pinniped, and cetacean distributions. Through spatial planning, information on species distributions can help to identify high-value conservation areas, minimize adverse effects of ocean uses and mitigate impacts of coastal hazards. Correspondingly, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has already begun to use the maps of predicted relative density presented in this report to identify ecologically important areas off the Pacific Coast of Washington and apply this information to plan for offshore renewable energy development. This is the culmination of three years of work to compile information on seabirds, pinnipeds, and cetaceans, and advance a modeling framework that can integrate data sets and develop accurate predictions of relative density for important species off the Pacific Coast of Washington. Previous reports, which evaluated existing datasets of at-sea observations (Menza et al., 2014; Kracker and Menza, 2015) and presented superseded versions of seabird models (Menza et al., 2015), provided base information for this report. In addition to the maps in this published report, all new seabird, pinniped and cetacean predictions will be made publicly available as digital geospatial data through the National Centers for Environmental Information. This research supports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Zone Management Program, a voluntary partnership between the federal government and U.S. coastal and Great Lakes states and territories authorized by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 to address national coastal issues. The act provides the basis for protecting, restoring, and responsibly developing our nation’s diverse coastal communities and resources. To meet the goals of the CZMA, the national program takes a comprehensive approach to coastal resource management – balancing the often competing and occasionally conflicting demands of coastal resource use, economic development, and conservation. A wide range of issues are addressed through the program, including coastal development, water quality, public access, habitat protection, energy facility siting, ocean governance and planning, coastal hazards, and climate change. Accurate maps of seabird and marine mammal distributions are an important tool for making informed management decisions that affect all of these issues.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Application of an unstructured 3D finite volume numerical model to flows and salinity dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta

A linked modeling approach has been undertaken to understand the impacts of climate and infrastructure on aquatic ecology and water quality in the San Francisco Bay-Delta region. The Delft3D Flexible Mesh modeling suite is used in this effort for its 3D hydrodynamics, salinity, temperature and sediment dynamics, phytoplankton and water-quality coupling infrastructure, and linkage to a habitat suitability model. The hydrodynamic model component of the suite is D-Flow FM, a new 3D unstructured finite-volume model based on the Delft3D model. In this paper, D-Flow FM is applied to the San Francisco Bay-Delta to investigate tidal, seasonal and annual dynamics of water levels, river flows and salinity under historical environmental and infrastructural conditions. The model is driven by historical winds, tides, ocean salinity, and river flows, and includes federal, state, and local freshwater withdrawals, and regional gate and barrier operations. The model is calibrated over a 9-month period, and subsequently validated for water levels, flows, and 3D salinity dynamics over a 2 year period. Model performance was quantified using several model assessment metrics and visualized through target diagrams. These metrics indicate that the model accurately estimated water levels, flows, and salinity over wide-ranging tidal and fluvial conditions, and the model can be used to investigate detailed circulation and salinity patterns throughout the Bay-Delta. The hydrodynamics produced through this effort will be used to drive affiliated sediment, phytoplankton, and contaminant hindcast efforts and habitat suitability assessments for fish and bivalves. The modeling framework applied here will serve as a baseline to ultimately shed light on potential ecosystem change over the current century.

California↗
USGS2014

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the South Fork Nooksack River Basin, northwestern Washington

A hydrogeologic framework of the South Fork (SF) Nooksack River Basin in northwestern Washington was developed and hydrologic data were collected to characterize the groundwater-flow system and its interaction with surface‑water features. In addition to domestic, agricultural, and commercial uses of groundwater within the SF Nooksack River Basin, groundwater has the potential to provide ecological benefits by maintaining late-summer streamflows and buffering stream temperatures. Cold-water refugia, created and maintained in part by groundwater, have been identified by water-resource managers as key elements to restore the health and viability of threatened salmonids in the SF Nooksack River. The SF Nooksack River drains a 183-square mile area of the North Cascades and the Puget Lowland underlain by unconsolidated glacial and alluvial sediments deposited over older sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous bedrock. The primary aquifer that interacts with the SF Nooksack River was mapped within unconsolidated glacial outwash and alluvial sediment. The lower extent of this unit is bounded by bedrock and fine-grained, poorly sorted unconsolidated glaciomarine and glaciolacustrine sediments. In places, these deposits overlie and confine an aquifer within older glacial sediments. The extent and thickness of the hydrogeologic units were assembled from mapped geologic units and lithostratigraphic logs of field-inventoried wells. Generalized groundwater-flow directions within the surficial aquifer were interpreted from groundwater levels measured in August 2012; and groundwater seepage gains and losses to the SF Nooksack River were calculated from synoptic streamflow measurements made in the SF Nooksack River and its tributaries in September 2012. A subset of the field-inventoried wells was measured at a monthly interval to determine seasonal fluctuations in groundwater levels during water year 2013. Taken together, these data provide the foundation for a future groundwater-flow model of the SF Nooksack River Basin that may be used to investigate the potential effects of future climate change, land use, and groundwater pumping on water resources in the study area. Site-specific hydrologic data, including time series of longitudinal temperature profiles measured with a fiber-optic distributed temperature sensor and continuous monitoring of stream stage and water levels measured in wells in adjacent wetlands and aquifers, also were measured to characterize the interaction among the SF Nooksack River, surficial aquifers, and riparian wetlands.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Evaluating low flow patterns, drivers and trends in the Delaware River Basin

In the humid, temperate Delaware River Basin (DRB) where water availability is generally reliable, summer low flows can cause competition between various human and ecological water uses. As temperatures continue to rise, population increases and development expands, it is critical to understand historical low flow variability to anticipate and plan for future flows. Using a sample of 325 U.S. Geological Survey gages, we evaluated spatial patterns in several low flow metrics, the biophysical and climatic drivers of these metrics, and trends in low flows for two periods: 1950-2018 and 1980-2018. We calculated the annual 7-day low flow and date, low flow deficit as the departure below a long-term daily flow threshold and the number of discrete low flow periods below this threshold. We also aggregated several climate metrics to watershed scale and used existing watershed properties quantifying land cover, topography, soils, geology, and human activity. Random forest models were used to assess the hierarchy of variable importance in explaining mean-annual low flow variability for each low flow metric using all gages. We find muted regional patterns in mean-annual low flow and low flow variability, likely due to the myriad of anthropogenic, landscape, and flow modifications that obscure flow regimes from their natural characteristics. In contrast, individual years show markedly different spatial patterns in low flow magnitude and severity. Coincident with increases in precipitation, 7-day low flows have generally increased and low flow deficits decreased for both 1950-2018 and 1980-2018 periods. However, 7-day low flows have decreased in the Coastal Plain physiographic province where water use and impervious area have increased in recent decades, highlighting the effects of land and water management on low flows. With continued change expected in the DRB, additional research needs are highlighted to enable estimation of future low flows and to plan for periods of prolonged low flow.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2022

Species-specific responses to landscape features shaped genomic structure within Alaska galliformes

Aim Connectivity is vital to the resiliency of populations to environmental change and stochastic events, especially for cold-adapted species as Arctic and alpine tundra habitats retract as the climate warms. We examined the influence of past and current landscapes on genomic connectivity in cold-adapted galliformes as a critical first step to assess the vulnerability of Alaska ptarmigan and grouse to environmental change. We hypothesize that the mosaic of physical features and habitat within Alaska promoted the formation of genetic structure across species. Location Alaska, United States of America. Taxa Ptarmigan and Grouse (Galliformes: Tetraoninae). Methods We collected double digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequence data from six ptarmigan and grouse species ( N = 13–145/species) sampled across multiple ecosystems up to ~10 degrees of latitude. Spatial genomic structure was analysed using methods that reflect different temporal scales: (1) principal components analysis to identify major trends in the distribution of genomic variation; (2) maximum likelihood clustering analyses to test for the presence of multiple genomic groupings; (3) shared co-ancestry analyses to assess contemporary relationships and (4) effective migration surfaces to identify regions that deviate from a null model of isolation by distance. Results Levels of genomic structure varied across species (Φ ST =0.009–0.042). Three general patterns of structure emerged: (1) east-west partition located near the Yukon-Tanana uplands; (2) north-south split coinciding with the Alaska Range and (3) northern group near the Brooks Range. Species-specific patterns were observed; not all landscape features were barriers to gene flow for all ptarmigan and grouse and temporal contrasts were detected at the Brooks Range. Main conclusions Within Alaska galliformes, patterns of genomic structure coincide with physiographic features and highlight the importance of physical and ecological barriers in shaping how genomic diversity is arrayed across the landscape. Lack of concordance in spatial patterns indicates that species behaviour and habitat affinities play key roles in driving the contrasting patterns of genomic structure.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Reassessing rainfall in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico: Local and global ecohydrological implications

Mountains receive a greater proportion of precipitation than other environments, and thus make a disproportionate contribution to the world’s water supply. The Luquillo Mountains receive the highest rainfall on the island of Puerto Rico and serve as a critical source of water to surrounding communities. The area’s role as a long-term research site has generated numerous hydrological, ecological, and geological investigations that have been included in regional and global overviews that compare tropical forests to other ecosystems. Most of the forest- and watershed-wide estimates of precipitation (and evapotranspiration, as inferred by a water balance) have assumed that precipitation increases consistently with elevation. However, in this new analysis of all known current and historical rain gages in the region, we find that similar to other mountainous islands in the trade wind latitudes, leeward (western) watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains receive lower mean annual precipitation than windward (eastern) watersheds. Previous studies in the Luquillo Mountains have therefore overestimated precipitation in leeward watersheds by up to 40%. The Icacos watershed, however, despite being located at elevations 200–400 m below the tallest peaks and to the lee of the first major orographic barrier, receives some of the highest precipitation. Such lee-side enhancement has been observed in other island mountains of similar height and width, and may be caused by several mechanisms. Thus, the long-reported discrepancy of unrealistically low rates of evapotranspiration in the Icacos watershed is likely caused by previous underestimation of precipitation, perhaps by as much as 20%. Rainfall/runoff ratios in several previous studies suggested either runoff excess or runoff deficiency in Luquillo watersheds, but this analysis suggests that in fact they are similar to other tropical watersheds. Because the Luquillo Mountains often serve as a wet tropical archetype in global assessments of basic ecohydrological processes, these revised estimates are relevant to regional and global assessments of runoff efficiency, hydrologic effects of reforestation, geomorphic processes, and climate change.

Luquillo Mountains↗
USGS2019

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or ‘phenological mismatches.’ Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon nor what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at ten sites spread across ~13º latitude and ~84º longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at: 1) an individual nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and 2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used Structural Equation Modeling to test for causal relationships among: 1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, 2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and 3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population-levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long-term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for arctic-nesting birds.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Fire modifies plant–soil feedbacks

Although plant–soil feedbacks (interactions between plants and soils, often mediated by soil microbes, abbreviated as PSFs) are widely known to influence patterns of plant diversity at local and landscape scales, these interactions are rarely examined in the context of important environmental factors. Resolving the roles of environmental factors is important because the environmental context may alter PSF patterns by modifying the strength or even direction of PSFs for certain species. One important environmental factor that is increasing in scale and frequency with climate change is fire, though the influence of fire on PSFs remains essentially unexamined. By changing microbial community composition, fire may alter the microbes available to colonize the roots of plants and thus seedling growth post-fire. This has potential to change the strength and/or direction of PSFs, depending on how such changes in microbial community composition occur and the plant species with which the microbes interact. We examined how a recent fire altered PSFs of two leguminous, nitrogen-fixing tree species in Hawaiʻi. For both species, growing in conspecific soil resulted in higher plant performance (as measured by biomass production) than growing in heterospecific soil. This pattern was mediated by nodule formation, an important process for growth for legume species. Fire weakened PSFs for these species and therefore pairwise PSFs, which were significant in unburned soils, but were nonsignificant in burned soils. Theory suggests that positive PSFs such as those found in unburned sites would reinforce the dominance of species where they are locally dominant. The change in pairwise PSFs with burn status shows PSF-mediated dominance might diminish after fire. Our results demonstrate that fire can modify PSFs by weakening the legume-rhizobia symbiosis, which may alter local competitive dynamics between two canopy dominant tree species. These findings illustrate the importance of considering environmental context when evaluating the role of PSFs for plants.

Ecology↗
USGS2012

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

International Journal of Climatology↗
USGS2023

AIMS for wildlife: Developing an automated interactive monitoring system to integrate real-time movement and environmental data for true adaptive management

To effectively manage species and habitats at multiple scales, population and land managers require rapid information on wildlife use of managed areas and responses to landscape conditions and management actions. GPS tracking studies of wildlife are particularly informative to species ecology, habitat use, and conservation. Combining GPS data with administrative data and a diverse suite of remotely sensed, geo-referenced environmental (e.g., climatic) data, would more comprehensively inform how animals interact with and utilize habitats and ecosystems and our goal was to create a conceptual model for a system that would accomplish this – the ‘Automated Interactive Monitoring System (AIMS) for Wildlife’. Our objective for this study was to develop a Customized Wildlife Report (CWR) - the first AIMS for Wildlife deliverable product. CWRs collate and summarize our 8-year GPS tracking dataset of ∼11 million locations from 1338 individual (16 species) avifauna and make actionable, real-time data on animal movements and trends in a specific area of interest available to managers and stakeholders for rapid application in day-to-day management. The CWR exemplar presented in this paper was developed to address needs identified by habitat managers of Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge and illustrates the highly specific, information offered and how it contributes to assessing the efficacy of conservation actions while allowing for near real-time adaptive management. The report can be easily customized for any of the thousands of wildlife refuges or regional areas of interest in the United States, emphasizing the broad application of an animal movement data stream. Utilizing diverse, extensive telemetry data streams through scientific collaboration can aid managers and conservation stakeholders with short and long-term research and conservation planning and help address a cadre of issues from local-scale habitat management to improving the understanding of landscape level impacts like drought, wildfire, and climate change on wildlife populations.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2020

Wildlife resistance and protection in a changing New England landscape

Rapid changes in climate and land use threaten the persistence of wildlife species. Understanding where species are likely to occur now and in the future can help identify areas that are resistant to change over time and guide conservation planning. We estimated changes in species distribution patterns and spatial resistance in five future scenarios for the New England region of the northeastern United States. We present scenario-specific distribution change maps for nine harvested wildlife species, identifying regions of increasing, decreasing, or stable habitat suitability within each scenario. Next, we isolated areas of greatest resistance across all future scenarios. Resistance was also evaluated relative to current land protection to identify patterns in and out of Protected Areas (PAs). Generally, species distributions declined in area over the 50-year assessment period (2010-2060), with the greatest declines occurring for moose (62.4%) and wild turkey (24.2%). Species resistance varied considerably across the region with coyote demonstrating the highest regional resistance (91.81% of the region) and moose demonstrating the lowest (0.76 % of the region). At the state level, average focal species resistance was highest in Maine and lowest in Massachusetts. Many of the focal species showed high overlap in resistance and land protection. Coyote, white-tailed deer, and black bear had the highest representation of resistance within PAs, while moose and wild turkey had the largest proportions of regional resistance occurring within PAs. Overall, relatively small portions of New England – ranging between 0.25% and 21.12% – were both protected and resistant for the focal species. Our results provide estimates of resistance that can inform conservation planning for commonly harvested species that are important ecologically, economically, and culturally to the region. Expanding protected area coverage to include resistant areas may provide longer term benefits to these species.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2015

Human harvest, climate change and their synergistic effects drove the Chinese Crested Tern to the brink of extinction

Synergistic effect refers to simultaneous actions of separate factors which have a greater total effect than the sum of the individual factor effects. However, there has been a limited knowledge on how synergistic effects occur and individual roles of different drivers are not often considered. Therefore, it becomes quite challenging to manage multiple threatening processes simultaneously in order to mitigate biodiversity loss. In this regard, our hypothesis is, if the traits actually play different roles in the synergistic interaction, conservation efforts could be made more effectively. To understand the synergistic effect and test our hypothesis, we examined the processes associated with the endangerment of critically endangered Chinese Crested Tern ( Thalasseus bernsteini ), whose total population number was estimated no more than 50. Through monitoring of breeding colonies and investigations into causative factors, combined with other data on human activities, we found that widespread human harvest of seabird eggs and increasing frequency of typhoons are the major factors that threatened the Chinese Crested Tern. Furthermore, 28 percent of breeding failures were due to the synergistic effects in which egg harvest-induced renestings suffered the higher frequent typhoons. In such combined interactions, the egg harvest has clearly served as a proximal factor for the population decline, and the superimposition of enhanced typhoon activity further accelerated the species toward imminent extinction. Our findings suggest that species endangerment, on one hand, should be treated as a synergistic process, while conservation efforts, on the other hand, should focus principally on combatting the threat that triggers synergistic effects.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2020

Marine latitudinal diversity gradients, niche conservatism and out of the tropics and Arctic: Climatic sensitivity of small organisms

Aim The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a consequence of evolutionary and ecological mechanisms acting over long history, and thus is best investigated with organisms that have rich fossil records. However, combined neontological‐palaeontological investigations are mostly limited to large, shelled invertebrates, which keeps our mechanistic understanding of LDGs in its infancy. This paper aims to describe the modern meiobenthic ostracod LDG and to explore the possible controlling factors and the evolutionary mechanisms of this large‐scale biodiversity pattern. Location Present‐day Western North Atlantic. Taxon Ostracoda. Methods We compiled ostracod census data from shallow‐marine environments of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Using these data, we documented the marine LDG with multiple metrics of alpha, beta (nestedness and turnover) and gamma diversity, and we tested whether macroecological patterns could be governed by different environmental factors, including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH and primary productivity. We also explored the geologic age distribution of ostracod genera to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the LDG. Results Our results show that temperature and climatic niche conservatism are important in setting LDGs of these small, poorly dispersing organisms. We also found evidence for some dispersal‐driven spatial dynamics in the ostracod LDG. Compared to patterns observed in marine bivalves, however, dispersal dynamics were weaker and they were bi‐directional, rather than following the ‘out‐of‐the‐tropics’ model. Main conclusions Our detailed analyses revealed that meiobenthic organisms, which comprise two‐thirds of marine diversity, do not always follow the same rules as larger, better‐studied organisms. Our findings suggest that the understudied majority of biodiversity may be more sensitive to climate than well‐studied, large organisms. This implies that the impacts of ongoing Anthropocene climatic change on marine ecosystems may be much more serious than presently thought.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2009

Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2022

Paralytic shellfish toxins associated with Arctic Tern mortalities in Alaska

Harmful algal blooms produce biotoxins that can injure or kill fish, wildlife, and humans. These blooms occur naturally but have intensified in many locations globally due to recent climatic changes, including ocean warming. Such changes are especially pronounced in northern regions, where the effects of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) on marine wildlife are of growing concern. In Alaska, seabird mortality events have increased in frequency, magnitude, and duration since 2015 alongside anomalously high ocean temperatures. Although starvation has been implicated as the apparent cause of death in many of these die-offs, saxitoxin (STX) and other PSTs have been identified as possible contributing factors. Here, we describe a mortality event at a nesting colony of Arctic Terns ( Sterna paradisaea ) near Juneau, Alaska in 2019 and report elevated concentrations of PSTs in bird, forage fish, and mussel samples. Concentrations of STX and other PSTs in tern tissues (2.5–51.2 µg 100g −1 STX-equivalents [STX-eq]) were of similar magnitude to those reported from other PST-induced bird die-offs. We documented high PST concentrations in blue mussels (>11,000 µg 100g −1 STX-eq; Mytilus edulis spp.) collected from nearby beaches, as well as in forage fish (up to 494 µg 100g −1 STX-eq) retrieved from Arctic Tern nests, thereby providing direct evidence of PST exposure via the terns’ prey. At maximum concentrations measured in this study, a single 5 g Pacific Sand Lance ( Ammodytes personatus ) could exceed the median lethal STX dose (LD 50 ) currently estimated for birds, offering strong support for PSTs as a likely source of tern mortality. In addition to describing this localized bird mortality event, we used existing energetics data from adult and nestling Arctic Terns to calculate estimated cumulative daily PST exposure based on ecologically relevant concentrations in forage fish. Our estimates revealed potentially lethal levels of PST exposure even at relatively low (≤30 ug 100g −1 STX-eq) toxin concentrations in prey. These findings suggest that PSTs present a significant hazard to Arctic Terns and other northern seabirds and should be included in future investigations of avian mortality events as well as assessments of population health.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Long‐term plant community trajectories suggest divergent responses of native and non‐native perennials and annuals to vegetation removal and seeding treatments

Land managers frequently apply vegetation removal and seeding treatments to restore ecosystem function following woody plant encroachment, invasive species spread, and wildfire. However, the long‐term outcome of these treatments is unclear due to a lack of widespread monitoring. We quantified how vegetation removal (via wildfire or management) with or without seeding and environmental conditions related to plant community composition change over time in 491 sites across the intermountain western United States. Most community metrics took over 10 years to reach baseline conditions posttreatment, with the slowest recovery observed for native perennial cover. Total cover was initially higher in sites with seeding after vegetation removal than sites with vegetation removal alone, but increased faster in sites with vegetation removal only. Seeding after vegetation removal was associated with rapidly increasing non‐native perennial cover and decreasing non‐native annual cover. Native perennial cover increased in vegetation removal sites irrespective of seeding and was suppressed by increasing non‐native perennial cover. Seeding was associated with higher non‐native richness across the monitoring period as well as initially higher, then declining, total and native species richness. Several cover and richness recovery metrics were positively associated with mean annual precipitation and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, whereas relationships with weather extremes depended on the lag time and season. Our results suggest that key plant groups, such as native perennials and non‐native annuals, respond to restoration treatments at divergent timescales and with different sensitivities to climate and weather variation.

Utah↗
USGS2015

Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number R 0 . However, understanding the mechanisms linking R 0 and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this, we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of R 0 and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of R 0 . Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15°C to 25°C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially ~25–32°C; mortality from 20°C to 30°C; parasite development rate at ~15–16°C and again at ~33–35°C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of R 0 . While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.

Ecology↗