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At least 1,747 records · Page 97Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Complex landslide patterns explained by local intra-unit variability of stratigraphy and structure: Case study in the Tyee Formation, Oregon, USA

Lithology and geologic structure are important controls on landslide susceptibility and are incorporated into many regional landslide hazard models. Typically, metrics for mapped geologic units are used as model input variables and a single set of values for material strength are assumed, regardless of spatial heterogeneities that may exist within a map unit. Here we describe how differences in bedding thickness, grain size, inferred uniaxial compressive strength, and bedding dip control the inherent susceptibility of slopes to deep-seated failure within a single mapped geologic unit - the Tyee Formation of Oregon, USA. The Tyee, which covers over 15,000 km2 and underlies much of the Oregon Coast Range, comprises gently folded alternating beds of sandstone and siltstone deposited as turbidites, forming a 2-km thick Eocene submarine fan which has been uplifted and exhumed through the Cenozoic. Deep-seated landslides are widespread in the Tyee, but form a complex spatial pattern such that landslide density ranges from 0 to 24% of the total landscape area. These slides are often extensive and sufficiently deep to reduce local hillslope gradients, resulting in a strong negative correlation between landslide density and mean local slope. Mean annual precipitation and predicted strong ground motions from Cascadia earthquake scenarios also fail to explain the spatial distribution of deep-seated landslides. Consequently, landslide stability models, which are strongly influenced by landscape slope, pore-water pressure, and seismic acceleration, yield landslide susceptibility maps which are broadly anti-correlated with mapped deep-seated landslide density. Through a multivariable linear regression model, we show that much of the variance in deep-seated landslide density can be explained by variability of intra-unit stratigraphic and structural characteristics, which we measure at 128 sites across two study areas totaling ∼3000 km2. Our results suggest bedding dip is only weakly correlated to landslide density, but strongly influences landslide failure style. Subtle increases in bedding dip, even in the gently folded Tyee Formation, result in a substantially higher likelihood of a landslide being cataclinal, or parallel to bedding. Overall, we find a slight majority of landslides fail within these cataclinal slopes, and that these landslides tend to be larger than non-cataclinal landslides. We also show that the lithological and structural properties that influence landslide susceptibility are distinct for these two populations of landslides. Our results demonstrate how localized, intra-unit, geologic variability can exert strong control on landslide susceptibility and failure style. This suggests that in some locations, landslide hazard models could be significantly improved by incorporating detailed, spatially variable, geologic properties rather than relying solely on generalized geologic map units.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Significant motions between GPS sites in the New Madrid region: implications for seismic hazard

Position time series from Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the New Madrid region were differenced to determine the relative motions between stations. Uncertainties in rates were estimated using a three‐component noise model consisting of white, flicker, and random walk noise, following the methodology of Langbein, 2004. Significant motions of 0.37±0.07 (one standard error) mm/yr were found between sites PTGV and STLE, for which the baseline crosses the inferred deep portion of the Reelfoot fault. Baselines between STLE and three other sites also show significant motion. Site MCTY (adjacent to STLE) also exhibits significant motion with respect to PTGV. These motions are consistent with a model of interseismic slip of about 4 mm/yr on the Reelfoot fault at depths between 12 and 20 km. If constant over time, this rate of slip produces sufficient slip for an M 7.3 earthquake on the shallow portion of the Reelfoot fault, using the geologically derived recurrence time of 500 years. This model assumes that the shallow portion of the fault has been previously loaded by the intraplate stress. A GPS site near Little Rock, Arkansas, shows significant southward motion of 0.3–0.4 mm/yr (±0.08 mm/yr) relative to three sites to the north, indicating strain consistent with focal mechanisms of earthquake swarms in northern Arkansas.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

Rapid seismic and infrasound assessment of large landslides: A case study from Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska)

Large, rapid landslides are a global hazard that can occur in remote, mountainous areas. Eyewitness reports of landslides and satellite imagery can often be limited or delayed, particularly during inclement weather. However, landslide-generated seismic and infrasound (low-frequency atmospheric sound) waves can be remotely detected in near real-time. This information can significantly expedite characterization and possible landslide response activities. Here, we highlight these capabilities using a > 4 million m³ ice–rock avalanche in Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska). This event was detected via a landslide-specific seismic location and volume estimation algorithm deployed in Alaska, and — notably — by standard earthquake monitoring systems. Following rapid detection of this event, we combined its seismic and infrasound dataset with optical, synthetic aperture radar, and oblique aerial imagery, multitemporal digital elevation models, and a numerical flow model to reconstruct its failure timeline and dynamics. We apply array processing to infrasound signals traveling > 250 km and find that two precursory events occurred minutes prior to the main failure. We use long-period seismic signals to infer the force exerted by the landslide on the Earth and constrain the rheological parameters of our numerical flow simulation with this result and deposit morphology. The main failure produced a steeply-dipping impulsive initial downward force and reached speeds exceeding 60 m/s. This impulsive force generated relatively strong seismic body waves, which contributed to the earthquake system detection. This large, remote Alaska landslide underscores the key value of seismic and infrasound analysis for rapid landslide assessment and motivates efforts to further operationalize these approaches.

Alaska↗
USGS2005

Subsurface structure and kinematics of the Calaveras-Hayward fault stepover from three-dimensional V p and seismicity, San Francisco Bay region, California

The Calaveras and Hayward faults are major components of the San Andreas fault system in the San Francisco Bay region. Dextral slip is presumed to transfer from the Calaveras fault to the Hayward fault in the Mission Hills region, an area of uplift in the contractional stepover between the two faults. Here the estimated deep slip rates drop from 15 to 6 mm/yr on the Calaveras fault, and slip begins on the Hayward fault at an estimated 9 mm/yr. A lineament of microseismicity near the Mission fault links the seismicity on the Calaveras and Hayward faults and is presumed to be related directly to this slip transfer. However, geologic and seismologic evidence suggest that the Mission fault may not be the source of the seismicity and that the Mission fault is not playing a major role in the slip transfer. We perform a joint inversion for hypocenters and the 3D P -wave velocity structure of the stepover region using 477 earthquakes. We find strong velocity contrasts across the Calaveras and Hayward faults, corroborated by geologic, gravity, and aeromagnetic data. Detailed examination of two seismic lineaments in conjunction with the velocity model and independent geologic and geophysical evidence suggests that they represent the southern extension of a northeasterly dipping Hayward fault that splays off the Calaveras fault, directly accounting for the deep slip transfer. The Mission fault appears to be accommodating deformation within the block between the Hayward and Calaveras faults. Thus, the Calaveras and Hayward faults need to be considered as a single system for developing rupture scenarios for seismic hazard assessments.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1974

New seismic study begins in Puerto Rico

A new seismological project is now underway in Puerto Rico to provide information needed for accurate assessment of the island's seismic hazard. The project should also help to increase understanding of the tectonics and geologic evolution of the Caribbean region. The Puerto Rico Seismic Program is being conducted by the Geological Survey with support provided by the Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority, an agency responsible for generation and distribution of electric power throughout the Commonwealth. The Program will include the installation of a network of high quality seismograph stations to monitor seismic activity on and around Puerto Rico. These stations will be distributed across the island to record the seismicity as uniformly as possible. The detection and accurate location of small earthquakes, as well as moderate magnitude shocks, will aid in mapping active seismic zones and in compiling frequency of occurrence statistics which ultimately wil be useful in seismic risk-zoning of hte island.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Influence of demand and capacity in transportation simulations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations

Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay Farm Island (City of Alameda, California, USA) and the distant-tsunami threat posed by Aleutian-Alaskan earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of agent-based, transportation simulation to support short-notice, tsunami-evacuation planning. Results demonstrate how vehicle simulation can characterize network performance during a tsunami evacuation in the absence of real-world measurements of vehicle demand and flow. Changes in vehicle demand had the greatest influence on reductions in clearance times and recommended reductions varied based on time of day. Doubling the capacity of certain road segments based on traditional vehicle-capacity ratios and level-of-service thresholds reduced overall clearance time in some cases but increased it in other cases. The proposed simulation approach can serve as an analytical foundation for future efforts to characterize distant-tsunami evacuations in other coastal communities throughout the world.

California↗
USGS2007

Reducing loss of life and property from disasters: A societal benefit area of the strategic plan for U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS)

Natural and technological disasters, such as hurricanes and other extreme weather events, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides and debris flows, wildland and urban-interface fires, floods, oil spills, and space-weather storms, impose a significant burden on society. Throughout the United States, disasters inflict many injuries and deaths, and cost the nation $20 billion each year (SDR, 2003). Disasters in other countries can affect U.S. assets and interests overseas (e.g. the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, which effectively destroyed Clark Air Force Base). Also, because they have a disproportionate impact on developing countries, disasters are major barriers to sustainable development. Improving our ability to assess, predict, monitor, and respond to hazardous events is a key factor in reducing the occurrence and severity of disasters, and relies heavily on the use of information from well-designed and integrated Earth observation systems. To fully realize the benefits gained from the observation systems, the information derived must be disseminated through effective warning systems and networks, with products tailored to the needs of the end users and the general public.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1983

Eruptive history of the Dieng Mountains region, central Java, and potential hazards from future eruptions

The Dieng Mountains region consists of a complex of late Quaternary to recent volcanic stratocones, parasitic vents, and explosion craters. Six age groups of volcanic centers, eruptive products, and explosion craters are recognized in the region based on their morphology, degree of dissection, stratigraphic relationships, and degree of weathering. These features range in age from tens of thousands of years to events that have occurred this century. No magmatic eruptions have occurred in the Dieng Mountains region for at least several thousand years; volcanic activity during this time interval has consisted of phreatic eruptions and non-explosive hydrothermal activity. If future volcanic events are similar to those of the last few thousand years, they will consist of phreatic eruptions, associated small hot mudflows, emission of suffocating gases, and hydrothermal activity. Future phreatic eruptions may follow, or accompany, periods of increased earthquake activity; the epicenters for the seismicity may suggest where eruptive activity will occur. Under such circumstances, the populace within several kilometers of a potential eruption site should be warned of a possible eruption, given instructions about what to do in the event of an eruption, or temporarily evacuated to a safer location.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

A comparison of observed and predicted ground motions from the 2015 M W 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake

We use 21 strong motion recordings from Nepal and India for the 25 April 2015 moment magnitude (M W ) 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake together with the extensive macroseismic intensity data set presented by Martin et al. (Seism Res Lett 87:957–962, 2015 ) to analyse the distribution of ground motions at near-field and regional distances. We show that the data are consistent with the instrumental peak ground acceleration (PGA) versus macroseismic intensity relationship developed by Worden et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 102:204–221, 2012 ), and use this relationship to estimate peak ground acceleration from intensities (PGA EMS ). For nearest-fault distances (R RUP < 200 km), PGA EMS is consistent with the Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seism Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003 ) subduction zone ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). At greater distances (R RUP > 200 km), instrumental PGA values are consistent with this GMPE, while PGA EMS is systematically higher. We suggest the latter reflects a duration effect whereby effects of weak shaking are enhanced by long-duration and/or long-period ground motions from a large event at regional distances. We use PGA EMS values within 200 km to investigate the variability of high-frequency ground motions using the Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seism Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003 ) GMPE as a baseline. Across the near-field region, PGA EMS is higher by a factor of 2.0–2.5 towards the northern, down-dip edge of the rupture compared to the near-field region nearer to the southern, up-dip edge of the rupture. Inferred deamplification in the deepest part of the Kathmandu valley supports the conclusion that former lake-bed sediments experienced a pervasive nonlinear response during the mainshock (Dixit et al. in Seismol Res Lett 86(6):1533–1539, 2015 ; Rajaure et al. in Tectonophysics, 2016 . Ground motions were significantly amplified in the southern Gangetic basin, but were relatively low in the northern basin. The overall distribution of ground motions and damage during the Gorkha earthquake thus reflects a combination of complex source, path, and site effects. We also present a macroseismic intensity data set and analysis of ground motions for the M W 7.3 Dolakha aftershock on 12 May 2015, which we compare to the Gorkha mainshock and conclude was likely a high stress-drop event.

Gorkha District↗
USGS2015

2014 M=6.0 South Napa earthquake triggered widespread aftershocks and stressed several major faults and exotic fault clusters

The strongest San Francisco Bay area earthquake since the 1989 Mw 7.0 Loma Prieta shock struck near Napa on 24 August 2014. Field mapping (Dawson et al., 2014; Earthquake Engineering Research Institute [EERI], 2014; Brocher et al., 2015) and seismic and geodetic source inversions (Barnhart et al., 2015; Dreger et al., 2015; Wei et al., 2015) indicate that a 15-km-long northwest-trending section of the West Napa Valley fault ruptured in the earthquake. Remarkably, it was the first indisputable surface rupture in the Bay area since 1906. The Napa event, along with other smaller earthquakes such as the 1980 Mw 5.8 Livermore and 1984 Mw 6.2 Morgan Hill events on the Calaveras and Hayward faults over the past 3–4 decades, may indicate that the Bay area region is emerging from the stress shadow of the 1906 Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake (Harris and Simpson, 1998; Pollitz et al., 2004). Since 1979, there has been a 140% increase in the rate of Mw≥4.1 shocks (Fig. 1) in the broader Bay area, with most concentrated in a corridor extending north from the 1989 Loma Prieta aftershock zone through the Calaveras, Greenville, Green Valley, Napa, and Rodgers Creek faults east of the San Francisco Bay (Fig. 1a). This corridor roughly coincides with the 1906 stress shadow that is being eroded away by more than a century of stress reaccumulation. The Napa event, as well as the surrounding faults on which we calculate the resulting hazard increases, all lie within this zone.

California↗
USGS2001

Upper crustal structure in Puget Lowland, Washington: Results from the 1998 Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound

A new three-dimensional (3-D) model shows seismic velocities beneath the Puget Lowland to a depth of 11 km. The model is based on a tomographic inversion of nearly one million first-arrival travel times recorded during the 1998 Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS), allowing higher-resolution mapping of subsurface structures than previously possible. The model allows us to refine the subsurface geometry of previously proposed faults (e.g., Seattle, Hood Canal, southern Whidbey Island, and Devils Mountain fault zones) as well as to identify structures (Tacoma, Lofall, and Sequim fault zones) that warrant additional study. The largest and most important of these newly identified structures lies along the northern boundary of the Tacoma basin; we informally refer to this structure here as the Tacoma fault zone. Although tomography cannot provide information on the recency of motion on any structure, Holocene earthquake activity on the Tacoma fault zone is suggested by seismicity along it and paleoseismic evidence for abrupt uplift of tidal marsh deposits to its north. The tomography reveals four large, west to northwest trending low-velocity basins (Tacoma, Seattle, Everett, and Port Townsend) separated by regions of higher velocity ridges that are coincident with fault-bounded uplifts of Eocene Crescent Formation basalt and pre-Tertiary basement. The shapes of the basins and uplifts are similar to those observed in gravity data; gravity anomalies calculated from the 3-D tomography model are in close agreement with the observed anomalies. In velocity cross sections the Tacoma and Seattle basins are asymmetric: the basin floor dips gently toward a steep boundary with the adjacent high-velocity uplift, locally with a velocity "overhang" that suggests a basin vergent thrust fault boundary. Crustal fault zones grow from minor folds into much larger structures along strike. Inferred structural relief across the Tacoma fault zone increases by several kilometers westward along the fault zone to Lynch Cove, where we interpret it as a zone of south vergent faulting overthrusting Tacoma basin. In contrast, structural relief along the Seattle fault zone decreases west of Seattle, which we interpret as evidence that the N-S directed compression is being accommodated by slip transfer between the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones. Together, the Tacoma and Seattle fault zones raise the Seattle uplift, one of a series of east-west trending, pop-up structures underlying Puget Lowland from the Black Hills to the San Juan Islands.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Low footwall accelerations and variable surface rupture behavior on the Fort Sage Mountains fault, northeast California

The Fort Sage Mountains fault zone is a normal fault in the Walker Lane of the western Basin and Range that produced a small surface rupture (<20 cm) during an M L 5.6 earthquake in 1950. We investigate the paleoseismic history of the Fort Sage fault and find evidence for two paleoearthquakes with surface displacements much larger than those observed in 1950. Rupture of the Fort Sage fault ∼5.6 ka resulted in surface displacements of at least 0.8–1.5 m, implying earthquake moment magnitudes (M w ) of 6.7–7.1. An older rupture at ∼20.5 ka displaced the ground at least 1.5 m, implying an earthquake of M w 6.8–7.1. A field of precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) is located less than 1 km from the surface‐rupture trace of this Holocene‐active normal fault. Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) predict peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2–0.3g for the 1950 rupture and 0.3–0.5g for the ∼5.6 ka paleoearthquake one kilometer from the fault‐surface trace, yet field tests indicate that the Fort Sage PBRs will be toppled by PGAs between 0.1–0.3g. We discuss the paleoseismic history of the Fort Sage fault in the context of the nearby PBRs, GMPEs, and probabilistic seismic hazard maps for extensional regimes. If the Fort Sage PBRs are older than the mid‐Holocene rupture on the Fort Sage fault zone, this implies that current GMPEs may overestimate near‐fault footwall ground motions at this site.

California↗
USGS1994

Map showing seismicity and sandblows in the vicinity of New Madrid, Missouri

This is one of a series of five seismotectic maps of the seismically active New Madrid, Missouri, area (table 1; Wheeler and others, 1992). The map area centers near the sites of three great earthquakes that struck during the winter of 1811-12 (Fuller, 1912; Nuttli, 1973). These earthquakes and continuing subsequent seismicity rank the New Madrid area with Cherlevoix, Quebec, as the two most seismically active areas in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. The threat posed by New Madrid seismicity to the central United States makes the area the focus of many investigations (for examples, Heyl and McKeown, 1978; McKeown and Pakiser, 1982; Algemissen and Hopper, 1984; Hamilton and Johnston, 1990; Applied Technology Council, 1991; Johnston and others, 1992). The map area includes the most intense seismic activity in the New Madrid region. A seismotectic map shows some of the geologic and geophysical information needed to assess seismic hazard (Hadley and Devine, 1974; Pavoni, 1985). A previous seismotectonic map of the central Mississippi River valley (Heyl and McKeown, 1978) has had wide use for planning field surveys, as a base map for plotting data collected during single investigations, and for compiling a range of information. Since 1978 numcrous researchers have greatly advanced our knowledge of the geology and geophysics of the central Mississippi Valley. The New Madrid seismotectonic map folio updates approximately the south-central sixth of the central Mississippi Valley seismotectonic map of Heyl and McKeown (1978).

Missouri↗
USGS2020

Procedures for developing multi-period response spectra at non-conterminous United States sites

This study complements proposals to the Provisions Update Committee of the Building Seismic Safety Council that would incorporate multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and related proposals to the ASCE 7-22 Seismic Subcommittee of the American Society of Civil Engineers for incorporation of MPRS in ASCE Standard, ASCE/SEI 7-22, Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures (ASCE 7-22). Ultimately, the intent is that the proposed MPRS and related design requirements of ASCE 7-22 would be adopted, by reference, as part of the 2024 International Building Code. The technical basis and associated methods herein enable the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop MPRS for sites in non-conterminous U.S. regions for which seismic hazard analyses have not yet been updated by the USGS to fully define all 22 periods and eight site classes of interest in the MPRS related proposals for the 2020 NEHRP Provisions and ASCE 7-22. These regions include Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and American Samoa. The methods developed can be used to derive MPRS using only the three currently available ground motion parameters S S , S 1 , and T L for all nonconterminous United States regions of interest. The methods include models that characterize generic shapes of Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE R ) ground motions as a function of these three parameters. For deriving MPRS that represent probabilistic MCE R ground motions, models are based on statistical analyses of large sample sets of probabilistic MCE R response spectra for Western United States (WUS) and Cascadia sites in California, Oregon, Washington (including Puget Sound), Idaho, and Nevada. For deriving MPRS that represent deterministic MCE R ground motions, models are based on sets of deterministic MCE R response spectra calculated using WUS shallow crustal ground motion models for earthquake magnitudes and shaking levels typical of sites governed by deterministic MCE R ground motions.

Alaska, American Samoa, Hawaii, Guam and the North↗
USGS2026

SlideDetect: Spatio-temporal landslide detection using a three-dimensional convolutional neural network

Landslides pose a serious and ongoing threat to both human lives and infrastructure worldwide; therefore, it is of interest to predict where and when landslides are likely to occur. Advances in machine learning techniques have spurred numerous studies aimed at estimating relative landslide propensity, but are limited to spatial (as opposed to temporal) prediction due to the sparsity of landslide timing data. We address this data gap by training SlideDetect, a 3-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D CNN), to identify landslides based on their spatial and temporal occurrence within multitemporal image stacks. We use an inventory of landsides triggered by the 2018 Hokkaido earthquake and two years of monthly composite optical imagery spanning this event. The model can identify not only landslide location but also landslide date with an area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) of 0.84. We further present a new standard for presenting PR curve results that explicitly compares model performance at different confidence thresholds, allowing for clearer model evaluation and comparison. Our new approach to constraining landslide timing paired with this more consistent and objective method for evaluating model performance shows considerable promise, and with further application and testing, SlideDetect could enhance the data availability and tools needed to advance landslide hazard and risk assessments.

JGR Machine Learning and Computation↗
USGS2004

Surficial geologic map of the southwest Memphis Quadrangle, Shelby County, Tennessee, and Crittenden County, Arkansas

This map is one of seven 1:24,000-scale (7.5-minute) quadrangle maps of the surficial geology of the Memphis, Tennessee, area--part of a series of urban hazard maps. Wind-deposited silt and clayey silt (loess) is the predominant surficial deposit in this quadrangle. The loess was deposited as dust during the last major continental glaciation of the region and it covers the upland to depths of 4.5-16 m. River alluvium (unit Qal), which is chiefly a sandy and gravelly sand deposit about 30 m thick, underlies the Mississippi River floodplain. This unit supports extensive artificial fill and infrastructure used for shipping storage and petroleum processing and storage. Based on paleoliquefaction structures (sand boils) documented in Mississippi River alluvium elsewhere, this unit probably has the potential to liquefy during strong earthquake shaking. No paleoliquefaction structures were observed within the Southwest Memphis quadrangle. Another deposit in the quadrangle is silty alluvium of the Nonconnah Creek floodplain, and is 1-10 m thick. Sparse, unconsolidated pebbly sand deposits are 0.5-3 m thick and make up point bars and channel deposits of Nonconnah Creek.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2021

Improved scaling relationships for seismic moment and average slip of strike-slip earthquakes incorporating fault slip rate, fault width and stress drop

We develop a self‐consistent scaling model relating magnitude M w to surface rupture length ( ⁠L E ⁠ ), surface displacement D E ⁠ , and rupture width W E ⁠ , for strike‐slip faults. Knowledge of the long‐term fault‐slip rate S F improves magnitude estimates. Data are collected for 55 ground‐rupturing strike‐slip earthquakes that have geological estimates of L E ⁠ , D E ⁠ , and S F⁠ , and geophysical estimates of W E ⁠ . We begin with the model of Anderson et al. (2017) , which uses a closed form equation for the seismic moment of a surface‐rupturing strike‐slip fault of arbitrary aspect ratio and given stress drop, Δτ C ⁠ . Using W E estimates does not improve M w estimates. However, measurements of D E plus the relationship between Δτ C and surface slip provide an alternate approach to study W E ⁠ . A grid of plausible stress drop and width pairs were used to predict displacement and earthquake magnitude. A likelihood function was computed from within the uncertainty ranges of the corresponding observed M w and D E values. After maximizing likelihoods over earthquakes in length bins, we found the most likely values of W E for constant stress drop; these depend on the rupture length. The best‐fitting model has the surprising form W E ∝logL E —a gentle increase in width with rupture length. Residuals from this model are convincingly correlated to the fault‐slip rate and also show a weak correlation with the crustal thickness. The resulting model thus supports a constant stress drop for ruptures of all lengths, consistent with teleseismic observation. The approach can be extended to test other observable factors that might improve the predictability of magnitude from a mapped fault for seismic hazard analyses.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

Using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method to estimate thickness of the Barry Arm landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Conducting detailed investigations of large landslides is difficult, especially in the subsurface, largely due to environmental factors such as steep slopes, difficult access, and numerous objective hazards. These factors have made it challenging to accurately estimate the depth to the failure surface of the Barry Arm landslide, a large (roughly 10 8 cubic meters), deep-seated bedrock landslide in Prince William Sound, Alaska, recognized in 2019. The landslide has exhibited accelerated movement in recent years and poses a potential tsunamigenic hazard if rapid failure occurs. Failure surface depth, equivalent to landslide thickness, is a necessary metric for landslide-volume calculations and associated tsunami wave models. In this report, we used seismic noise recorded by a seismometer located on the Barry Arm landslide in Alaska to calculate the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) to investigate the site fundamental frequency ( f 0 ) and depth of the failure surface. To ensure that observed peak frequencies in the spectral ratio were related to the underlying stratigraphy (and not caused by other noise sources like nearby glaciers, topographic resonance, weather, or human activities), we also calculated HVSRs using earthquake signals, HVSRs at other seismic stations within a 2.5-kilometer radius, and a standard spectral ratio between the landslide station and other sites. We observed multiple peaks in the landslide HVSR curves at 1.5 hertz (Hz), 4–5 Hz, and 7–11 Hz. The frequencies of these peaks were consistent at the landslide site through time and across methods and were dissimilar to those identified at other seismic stations in the area, making it unlikely the peaks were caused by local noise. Directional HVSRs calculated at 15-degree intervals showed amplification of the higher frequency peaks in the direction parallel to slip, indicating two-dimensional site effects. We used the distinct frequency peaks in the seismic record to develop a 4-layer conceptual model of the landslide wherein the top of the deepest layer represents the primary failure surface, or the boundary between damaged (mobile) and undamaged material. We inverted Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves within this 4-layer configuration with constraints on S-wave velocity and layer thickness based on analogous material properties identified in the literature. This was necessary absent any site-specific subsurface S-wave velocity data. The best-fitting models indicate a mean slope-normal depth to the failure surface of 188 (±9) meters (m), with additional stratigraphic boundaries at 4 and 20 m below ground surface, potentially representing layered motion. These results agree with and improve upon ranges estimated by previous studies and can support future modeling and assessment efforts at Barry Arm.

Alaska↗