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At least 1,747 records · Page 97Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Insights from long-term ungrazed and grazed watersheds in a salt desert Colorado Plateau ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems cover over 41% of the earth’s land surface, and living within these important ecosystems are approximately 2 billion people, a large proportion of whom are subsistence agropastoralists. Improper grazing in drylands can negatively impact ecosystem productivity, soil conservation, hydrologic processes, downstream water quantity and quality, and ultimately human health and economic well-being. Concerns regarding the degraded state of western US rangelands in the 1950s resulted in an interagency committee to study the effects of land use on runoff and erosion processes. In 1953, a federal research group established four paired watersheds in western Colorado to study the interaction of grazing by domestic livestock, runoff, and sediment yield. Exclusion of livestock from half of the watersheds dramatically reduced runoff and sediment yield after the first 10 yr—primarily due to changes in ground cover but not vegetation. Here, we report results of repeated soils and vegetation assessments of the experimental watersheds after more than 50 yr of grazing exclusion. Results show that many of the differences in soil conditions between grazed and ungrazed watersheds observed in the 1950s and 1960s were still present in 2004, despite reduced numbers of livestock: few differences in vegetation cover but large differences in biological soil crusts, soil stability, soil compaction, and soil biogeochemistry. There were differences among soil types in response to grazing history, especially soil lichen cover and soil organic matter, nitrogen, and sodium. Comparisons of ground cover measured in 2004 with those measured in 1953, 1966, and 1972 suggest much of the differences between grazed and ungrazed watersheds likely were driven by high sheep numbers during droughts in the 1950s. Persistence of these differences, despite large reductions in stocking rates , suggest the combination of overgrazing and drought may have pushed these salt desert ecosystems into a persistent, degraded ecological state.

Salt Desert Colorado Plateau Ecosystem↗
USGS2021

Urbanization impacts on evapotranspiration across various spatio-temporal scales

Urbanization has been shown to locally increase the nighttime temperatures creating urban heat islands, which partly arise due to evapotranspiration (ET) reduction. It is unclear how the direction and magnitude of the change in local ET due to urbanization varies globally across different climatic regimes. This knowledge gap is critical, both for the key role of ET in the energy and water balance accounting for the majority of local precipitation, and for reducing the urban heat island effect. We explore and assess the impacts of urbanization on monthly and mean annual ET across a range of landscapes from local to global spatial scales. Remotely sensed land cover and ET available at 1 km resolution are used to quantify the differences in ET between urban and surrounding non-urban areas across the globe. The observed patterns show that the statistically significant difference between urban and non-urban ET can be estimated to first order as a function of local hydroclimate, with arid regions seeing increased ET, and humid regions showing decreased ET. Cities under cold climates also evaporate more than their non-urban surroundings during the winter, as the urban micro-climate has increased energy availability resulting from human activities. Increased ET in arid cities arises from municipal water withdrawals and increased irrigation during drought conditions. These results can help inform planners to improve the integration of environmental conditions into the design and management of urban landscapes.

Earth's Future↗
USGS2021

Monthly river temperature trends across the US confound annual changes

Climate variations and human modifications of the water cycle continue to alter the Earth's surface water and energy exchanges. It is therefore critical to ascertain how these changes impact water quality and aquatic ecosystem habitat metrics such as river temperatures. Though river temperature trend analyses exist in the literature, studies on seasonal trends in river temperatures across large spatial extents, e.g. the contiguous United States (US), are limited. As we show through both annual and monthly trend analyses for 20 year ( n = 138 sites) and 40 year ( n = 40 sites) periods, annual temperature trends across the US mask extensive monthly variability. While most sites exhibited annual warming trends, these annual trends obscured sub-annual cooling trends at many sites. Monthly trend anomalies were spatially organized, with persistent regional patterns at both reference and human-impacted sites. The largest warming and cooling anomalies happened at human impacted sites and during summer months. Though our analysis points to coherence in trends as well as the overall impact of human activity in driving these patterns, we did not investigate the impact of river temperature observation accuracy on reported trends, an area needed for future work. Overall, these patterns emphasize the need to consider sub-annual behavior when managing the ecological impacts of river temperature throughout lotic networks.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS1971

An evaluation of procedures used in computing chemical denudation rates

Computations of chemical denudation rates (that is, the average rate of lowering of the earth's crust by chemical processes) should be based only upon those components of dissolved loads of streams that are derived from chemical weathering of rocks and soils, even though identification of those components is difficult and imprecise. Past computations of chemical denudation rates exaggerated by 1.4 to 2.4 times the significance of this process because they were calculated from total dissolved loads. Identification of separate denudation and nondenudation components in a water analysis can be done most readily for streams in crystalline silicate rock terrane where commonly 25 to 55 percent of the dissolved solids are HCO 3 −1 , SO 4 −2 , Cl −1 , and NO 3 −1 that cannot be derived from the underlying rock; instead these ions are derived either directly from the atmosphere or from atmosphere-biosphere interactions. Most of the remaining solutes are derived from chemical weathering or rainfall, or both. Existing data are often insufficient to separate these two components, but atmospheric contributions to dissolved loads of dilute natural waters are substantial. The commonly observed increased concentration of dissolved solids in chemically polluted rivers is produced by concentration of natural dissolved loads by evaporation, and by addition of solutes not present in natural waters. Concentration of natural solutes represents a modification of natural denudation processes that does not change the rate of denudation. Addition of new solutes represents man-induced, accelerated chemical denudation. Extrapolation of modern chemical denudation rates to geologic situations is extremely imprecise because of uncertainties in assessing man's influence on present dissolved loads, in reconstructing the number and magnitude of past climatic changes, and in evaluating the effects of evolving flora and fauna.

Bulletin of the Geological Society of America↗
USGS2013

Does calving matter? Evidence for significant submarine melt

During the summer in the northeast Pacific Ocean, the Alaska Coastal Current sweeps water with temperatures in excess of 12 °C past the mouths of glacierized fjords and bays. The extent to which these warm waters affect the mass balance of Alaskan tidewater glaciers is uncertain. Here we report hydrographic measurements made within Icy Bay, Alaska, and calculate rates of submarine melt at Yahtse Glacier, a tidewater glacier terminating in Icy Bay. We find strongly stratified water properties consistent with estuarine circulation and evidence that warm Gulf of Alaska water reaches the head of 40 km-long Icy Bay, largely unaltered. A 10–20 m layer of cold, fresh, glacially-modified water overlies warm, saline water. The saline water is observed to reach up to 10.4 °C within 1.5 km of the terminus of Yahtse Glacier. By quantifying the heat and salt deficit within the glacially-modified water, we place bounds on the rate of submarine melt. The submarine melt rate is estimated at >9 m d −1 , at least half the rate at which ice flows into the terminus region, and can plausibly account for all of the submarine terminus mass loss. Our measurements suggest that summer and fall subaerial calving is a direct response to thermal undercutting of the terminus, further demonstrating the critical role of the ocean in modulating tidewater glacier dynamics.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Strain accumulation and rotation in western Oregon and southwestern Washington

Velocities of 75 geodetic monuments in western Oregon and southwestern Washington extending from the coast to more than 300 km inland have been determined from GPS surveys over the interval 1992–2000. The average standard deviation in each of the horizontal velocity components is ∼1 mm yr −1 . The observed velocity field is approximated by a combination of rigid rotation (Euler vector relative to interior North America: 43.40°N ± 0.14°, 119.33°W ± 0.28°, and 0.822 ± 0.057° Myr −1 clockwise; quoted uncertainties are standard deviations), uniform regional strain rate (ε EE = −7.4 ± 1.8, ε EN = −3.4 ± 1.0, and ε NN = −5.0 ± 0.8 nstrain yr −1 , extension reckoned positive), and a dislocation model representing subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath North America. Subduction south of 44.5°N was represented by a 40‐km‐wide locked thrust and subduction north of 44.5°N by a 75‐km‐wide locked thrust.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2019

Earthquake stress drop and Arias Intensity

We determine earthquake stress drops directly from the Arias intensity database of NGA-West2. Arias intensity (Arias, 1970) is an engineering measure proportional to the integral of the absolute value of acceleration squared, over the significant duration of the signal. As such, it is closely related to root-mean-square acceleration, and can readily be connected to earthquake stress drop (Hanks and McGuire, 1981). Arias intensity records out to 100 km yield stable stress drops for moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes, M6.5+; for smaller events ~M4.5 – 6.5, only closer-in records yield stable results. For the 116 events considered, stress drops are about 35% larger for Class 1 mainshocks than for traditional on-fault Class 2 aftershocks, and smaller for those aftershocks close to the main fault plane. Aftershock stress drops show large variability, however, implying that on average they re-rupture weakened patches, but can also rupture intact rock or high-stress asperities. We observe an increase of stress drop with earthquake depth similar to that of other studies but do not find any significant faulting mechanism dependence. The variability of the Arias intensity-based stress drop is lower than that of eGf-based stress drops from Baltay et al. (2010, 2011), and nearly on par with variability seen in ground-motion prediction equations. The Arias intensity stress drop is a novel and promising method to estimate stress drop without the need for path and site corrections, and yields further insight into the connection between source physics and ground-motion.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1974

A prototype global volcano surveillance system monitoring seismic activity and tilt

The Earth Resources Technology Satellite makes it feasible for the first time to monitor the level of activity at widely separated volcanoes and to relay these data almost instantancously to one central office. This capability opens a new era in volcanology where the hundreds of normally quiescent but potentially dangerous volcanoes near populated regions around the world can be economically and reliably monitored. A prototype global volcano surveillance system has been established beginning in the fall of 1972 with the help of local scientists on 15 volcanoes in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Iceland. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Data on earthquake activity and ground tilt are received 6 to 10 times daily in Menlo Park, California, within 90 minutes of transmission from the sites. Seismic event counters were installed at 19 locations with biaxial borehole tiltineters with 1 microradian sensitivity installed at seven sites. Direct comparison of seismic events that are counted with records from nearby seismic stations show the event counters work quite reliably. An order of magnitude increase in seismic events was observed prior to the eruption of Volcán Fuego in Guatemala in February, 1973. Significant changes in tilt were observed on volcanoes Kilauea. Fuego, and Pacava. This study demonstrates the technological and economic feasibility of utilizing such a volcano surveillance system throughout the world.

Bulletin Volcanologique↗
USGS2004

The global short-period wavefield modelled with a Monte Carlo seismic phonon method

At high frequencies (∼1 Hz), much of the seismic energy arriving at teleseismic distances is not found in the main phases (e.g. P , PP , S , etc.) but is contained in the extended coda that follows these arrivals. This coda results from scattering off small-scale velocity and density perturbations within the crust and mantle and contains valuable information regarding the depth dependence and strength of this heterogeneity as well as the relative importance of intrinsic versus scattering attenuation. Most analyses of seismic coda to date have concentrated on S -wave coda generated from lithospheric scattering for events recorded at local and regional distances. Here, we examine the globally averaged vertical-component, 1-Hz wavefield (>10° range) for earthquakes recorded in the IRIS FARM archive from 1990 to 1999. We apply an envelope-function stacking technique to image the average time–distance behavior of the wavefield for both shallow (≤50 km) and deep (≥500 km) earthquakes. Unlike regional records, our images are dominated by P and P coda owing to the large effect of attenuation on PP and S at high frequencies. Modelling our results is complicated by the need to include a variety of ray paths, the likely contributions of multiple scattering and the possible importance of P -to- S and S -to- P scattering. We adopt a stochastic, particle-based approach in which millions of seismic phonons are randomly sprayed from the source and tracked through the Earth. Each phonon represents an energy packet that travels along the appropriate ray path until it is affected by a discontinuity or a scatterer. Discontinuities are modelled by treating the energy normalized reflection and transmission coefficients as probabilities. Scattering probabilities and scattering angles are computed in a similar fashion, assuming random velocity and density perturbations characterized by an exponential autocorrelation function. Intrinsic attenuation is included by reducing the energy contained in each particle as an appropriate function of traveltime. We find that most scattering occurs in the lithosphere and upper mantle, as previous results have indicated, but that some lower-mantle scattering is likely also required. A model with 3 to 4 per cent rms velocity heterogeneity at 4-km scale length in the upper mantle and 0.5 per cent rms velocity heterogeneity at 8-km scale length in the lower mantle (with intrinsic attenuation of Q α = 450 above 200 km depth and Q α = 2500 below 200 km) provides a reasonable fit to both the shallow- and deep-earthquake observations, although many trade-offs exist between the scale length, depth extent and strength of the heterogeneity.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2013

Detectability of thermal signatures associated with active formation of ‘chaos terrain’ on Europa

A recent study by Schmidt et al. (2011) suggests that Thera Macula, one of the “chaos regions” on Europa, may be actively forming over a large liquid water lens. Such a process could conceivably produce a thermal anomaly detectable by a future Europa orbiter or flyby mission, allowing for a direct verification of this finding. Here, we present a set of models that quantitatively assess the surface and subsurface temperatures associated with an actively resurfacing chaos region using constraints from Thera Macula. The results of this numerical study suggest that the surface temperature over an active chaos region can be as high as ∼200 K. However, low-resolution Galileo Photo-Polarimeter Radiometer (PPR) observations indicate temperatures below 120 K over Thera Macula. This suggests that Thera Macula is not currently active unless an insulating layer of at least a few centimeters in thickness is present, or activity is confined to small regions, reducing the overall intensity of the thermal signature. Alternatively, Thera may have been cooling for at least 10–100 yr and still contain a subsurface lake, which can take ∼300,000 yr to crystallize. According to the present study, a more sensitive instrument capable of detecting anomalies ∼5 K above ambient could detect activity at Thera Macula even if an insulating layer of ∼50 cm is present.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2001

Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: analyses of CO 2 , climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO 2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO 2 . During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO 2 and O 2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O 2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO 2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO 2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO 2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2011

River chemistry as a monitor of Yosemite Park mountain hydroclimates

High-frequency, high-altitude measurements of water chemistry provide insights into processes relating to the hydrology, climate, and geochemistry of mountain catchments. When such observations are combined with stream stage, temperature, snow, weather, and other surface hydroclimate measurements, they are particularly useful in allowing connections between climate, river discharge, river chemistry, and ecosystems to be discerned. Climate is the major source of variability in U.S. and global water resources. For example, large-scale variations in the global atmosphere and the Pacific Ocean are responsible for much of the variability in river discharge in Hawaii, Alaska, the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and the U.S. Southwest [ Cayan and Peterson , 1989], and thus are closely linked to water and energy resources of the western United States [ Cayan et al ., 2003].

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗
USGS2010

Rheologic and structural controls on the deformation of Okmok volcano, Alaska: FEMs, InSAR, and ambient noise tomography

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data indicate that the caldera of Okmok volcano, Alaska, subsided more than a meter during its eruption in 1997. The large deformation suggests a relatively shallow magma reservoir beneath Okmok. Seismic tomography using ambient ocean noise reveals two low‐velocity zones (LVZs). The shallow LVZ corresponds to a region of weak, fluid‐saturated materials within the caldera and extends from the caldera surface to a depth of 2 km. The deep LVZ clearly indicates the presence of the magma reservoir beneath Okmok that is significantly deeper (>4 km depth) compared to previous geodetic‐based estimates (3 km depth). The deep LVZ associated with the magma reservoir suggests magma remains in a molten state between eruptions. We construct finite element models (FEMs) to simulate deformation caused by mass extraction from a magma reservoir that is surrounded by a viscoelastic rind of country rock embedded in an elastic domain that is partitioned to account for the weak caldera materials observed with tomography. This configuration allows us to reduce the estimated magma reservoir depressurization to within lithostatic constraints, while simultaneously maintaining the magnitude of deformation required to predict the InSAR data. More precisely, the InSAR data are best predicted by an FEM simulating a rind viscosity of 7.5 × 10 16 Pa s and a mass flux of −4.2 × 10 9 kg/d from the magma reservoir. The shallow weak layer within the caldera provides a coeruption stress regime and neutral buoyancy horizon that support lateral magma propagation from the central magma reservoir to extrusion near the rim of the caldera.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Multi-scale geophysical imaging of a hydrothermal system in Yellowstone National Park, USA

Little is known about the local plumbing systems that fuel Yellowstone’s famous hot springs, geysers and mud pots. A multi-method, multi-scale geophysical investigation was carried out in the Obsidian Pool Thermal Area (OPTA) to: (i) delineate the lateral extent of the hydrothermal area and associated surface features; (ii) estimate the dimensions of the upflow zone and identify its main controlling structures; (iii) assess fluids circulation pathways from depth to surface. Ground and airborne geophysical data were acquired to connect local and regional scales, from shallow to large depths. Maps of surface electrical resistivity show a strong correlation with hydrothermal features. At in-termediate depths, electrical resistivity permits delineating the upper limit of the upflow zone, while Poisson’s ratio highlights differences in subsurface fluid content. Combining these results with surface observations and topographic information, we speculate that differential mixing of hydrothermal and fresh water could explain the wide diversity of features observed at OPTA. Low electrical resistivity observed at large depths also suggest that a vast upflow zone, controlled by rhyolite flows and conjugate faults, underlies the OPTA. We speculate that hydrothermal fluids rise along fractures and reach the surface in topographic lows to form hydrothermal features. Our results show that synoptic, multi-scale geophysical measurements provide a roadmap for understanding where and how geologic heterogeneity, topography, fluid-gas separation, and the mixing of thermal and meteoric waters conspire to produce the wide variety of Yellowstone’s renowned hydrothermal features.

Wyoming↗
USGS2012

An axial view of a metamorphic core complex: Crustal structure of the Whipple and Chemehuevi Mountains, southeastern California

A 135‐km‐long, NW‐SE trending, seismic refraction/wide‐angle reflection profile provides a unique along‐strike view of the crustal structure of a belt of metamorphic core complexes in southeastern California: the Whipple, Chemehuevi, and Sacramento mountains metamorphic core complexes. Interpretation of the seismic data was done by two‐dimensional forward modeling of travel times and amplitudes. The final model consists of (1) a thin (< 1.5 km) veneer of upper plate and fractured lower plate rocks (velocities of 1.5–5.3 km s −1 ) overlying a fairly homogeneous basement with velocities of 6.0 km s −1 ; (2) a localized, high‐velocity (6.4 km s −1 ) body, situated directly beneath the Whipple Mountains; (3) a 6.3–6.4 km s −1 middle crust that is thickest beneath the core complexes; (4) a 6.65±0.15 km s −1 lower crust; (5) crustal thickness of 27 km with a deeper crustal root (3 km) beneath the Whipple Mountains metamorphic core complex; and (6) a P n velocity of 8.0±0.10 km s −1 . The crustal structure that underlies the belt of metamorphic core complexes provides new insights into the processes that control extension in the deep crust. Upper crustal velocities are higher beneath the Whipple Mountains (where velocities increase to 6.4 km s −1 at ∼5 km depth) than beneath the Chemehuevi and Sacramento mountains. In addition, midcrustal discontinuities rise 2–5 km beneath the Whipple complex compared to the other complexes. These observations support greater uplift and a slightly deeper midcrustal origin for the rocks now exposed in the core of the Whipple Mountains compared to rocks in the Chemehuevi and Sacramento mountains. Despite the enhanced uplift and extension in the Whipple Mountains, the crust is thicker here (30 km) than anywhere else along the Colorado River extensional corridor. This may be in part a relic of compressional and magmatic thickening during the Mesozoic. However, we suggest that inflation of the crust during Tertiary extension was the dominant mechanism. Both mantle‐derived magmatism and lateral ductile inflow in the crust are proposed.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2025

SURF: An automated method for building nonplanar 3D fault models from earthquake hypocenters

Accurately characterizing 3D fault geometry is vital for improving our understanding of earthquake behavior and informing the development of seismic hazard models. Despite their importance, subsurface fault structures tend to be poorly constrained because of limitations in observational data. Improvements to the seismic networks and earthquake detection algorithms have increased the precision and volume of earthquake catalogs, which help illuminate detailed subsurface fault structure and provide the most direct information available about fault geometries at depth. We present a Python package to automate generating 3D fault geometries directly from hypocentral seismicity patterns. This method begins with clustering events based on their spatial density, identifying coherent patterns. Nearby clusters are then merged based on the similarity of their orientations. We fit nonplanar surfaces using support vector regression to balance surface accuracy with minimal deviations from planarity. The fault models are output as quadrilateral meshes at user‐defined resolution. In the process of generating the 3D fault surfaces, we compute the spatial density of seismicity around the surface and the planarity as quantitative metrics of the model outputs. As a proof of concept, we apply this approach to the San Andreas–Calaveras fault junction region and the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, both in California, which contain complex subparallel faults well defined at the Earth’s surface and abundant microseismicity. These case studies demonstrate the method’s ability to model complex fault structures, including long continuous fault surfaces, crossing faults, variably dipping segments, and subparallel faults. We test the method on both standard network catalogs and double‐difference relocated catalogs. We find that our seismicity‐based fault model results align with published 3D models that incorporate additional constraints and interpretations ( Plesch et al. , 2020 ; Aagaard and Hirakawa, 2021 ). This workflow provides a low‐user‐input solution for estimating fault geometries at depth from earthquake catalogs.

California↗
USGS2003

Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer

Two M ??? 6 well-recorded strike-slip earthquakes struck just 4 km and 48 days apart in Kagoshima prefecture, Japan, in 1997, providing an opportunity to study earthquake interaction. Aftershocks are abundant where the Coulomb stress is calculated to have been increased by the first event, and they abruptly stop where the stress is dropped by the second event. This ability of the main shocks to toggle seismicity on and off argues that static stress changes play a major role in exciting aftershocks, whereas the dynamic Coulomb stresses, which should only promote seismicity, appear to play a secondary role. If true, the net stress changes from a sequence of earthquakes might be expected to govern the subsequent seismicity distribution. However, adding the stress changes from the two Kagoshima events does not fully capture the ensuing seismicity, such as its rate change, temporal decay, or migration away from the ends of the ruptures. We therefore implement a stress transfer model that incorporates rate/state friction, in which seismicity is treated as a sequence of independent nucleation events that are dependent on the fault slip, slip rate, and elapsed time since the last event. The model reproduces the temporal response of seismicity to successive stress changes, including toggling, decay, and aftershock migration. Nevertheless, the match of observed to predicted seismicity is quite imperfect, due perhaps to inadequate knowledge of several model parameters. However, to demonstrate the potential of this approach, we build a probabilistic forecast of larger earthquakes on the expected rate of small aftershocks, taking advantage of the large statistical sample the small shocks afford. Not surprisingly, such probabilities are highly time- and location-dependent: During the first decade after the main shocks, the seismicity rate and the chance of successive large shocks are about an order of magnitude higher than the background rate and are concentrated exclusively in the stress triggering zones. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Uion.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2006

Helping Students make the transition from novice learner of ground-water concepts to expert using the Plume Busters software

Environmental and earth science students are novice learners and lack the experience needed to rise to the level of expert. To address this problem we have developed the prototype Plume Busters?? software as a capstone educational experience, in which students take on the role of an environmental consultant. Following a pipeline spill, the environmental consultant is hired by the pipeline owner to locate the resulting plume created by spill and remediate the contaminated aquifer at minimum monetary and time cost. The contamination must be removed from the aquifer before it reaches the river and eventually a downstream public water supply. The software consists of an interactive Java application and accompanying HTML linked pages. The application simulates movement of a plume from a pipeline break throug h a shallow alluvial aquifer towards the river. The accompanying web pages establish the simulated contamination scenario and provide students with background material on ground-water flow and transport principles. To make the role-play more realistic, the student must consider cost and time when making decisions about siting observation wells and wells for the pump-and-treat remediation system.

Journal of Geoscience Education↗