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Documentation of the Santa Clara Valley regional ground-water/surface-water flow model, Santa Clara Valley, California

The Santa Clara Valley is a long, narrow trough extending about 35 miles southeast from the southern end of San Francisco Bay where the regional alluvial-aquifer system has been a major source of water. Intensive agricultural and urban development throughout the 20th century and related ground-water development resulted in ground-water-level declines of more than 200 feet and land subsidence of as much as 12.7 feet between the early 1900s and the mid-1960s. Since the 1960s, Santa Clara Valley Water District has imported surface water to meet growing demands and reduce dependence on ground-water supplies. This importation of water has resulted in a sustained recovery of the ground-water flow system. To help support effective management of the ground-water resources, a regional ground-water/surface-water flow model was developed. This model simulates the flow of ground water and surface water, changes in ground-water storage, and related effects such as land subsidence. A numerical ground-water/surface-water flow model of the Santa Clara Valley subbasin of the Santa Clara Valley was developed as part of a cooperative investigation with the Santa Clara Valley Water District. The model better defines the geohydrologic framework of the regional flow system and better delineates the supply and demand components that affect the inflows to and outflows from the regional ground-water flow system. Development of the model includes revisions to the previous ground-water flow model that upgraded the temporal and spatial discretization, added source-specific inflows and outflows, simulated additional flow features such as land subsidence and multi-aquifer wellbore flow, and extended the period of simulation through September 1999. The transient-state model was calibrated to historical surface-water and ground-water data for the period 1970–99 and to historical subsidence for the period 1983–99. The regional ground-water flow system consists of multiple aquifers that are grouped into upper- and lower-aquifer systems. Ground-water inflow occurs as natural recharge in the form of streamflow infiltration and areal infiltration of precipitation along stream channels, artificial recharge from infiltration of imported water at recharge ponds and along selected stream channels, and leakage along selected transmission pipelines. Ground-water outflow occurs as evapotranspiration, stream base flow, discharge through pumpage from wells, and subsurface flow to the San Francisco Bay. The geohydrologic framework of the regional ground-water flow system was represented as six model layers. The hydraulic properties were redefined on the basis of cell-based lithologic properties that were delineated in terms of aggregate thicknesses of coarse-grained, fine-grained, and mixed textural categories. The regional aquifer systems also are dissected by several laterally extensive faults that may form at least partial barriers to the lateral flow of ground water. The spatial extent of the ground-water flow model was extended and refined to cover the entire Santa Clara Valley, including the Evergreen subregion. The temporal discretization was refined and the period of simulation was extended to 1970–99. The model was upgraded to MODFLOW-2000 (MF2K) and was calibrated to fit historical ground-water levels, streamflow, and land subsidence for the period 1970–99. The revised model slightly overestimates measured water levels with an root-mean-square error of -7.34 feet. The streamflow generally shows a good match on gaged creeks and rivers for flows greater than 1.2 cubic feet per second. The revised model also fits the measured deformation at the borehole extensometer site located near San Jose within 16 to 27 percent and the extensometer site near Sunnyvale within 3 percent of the maximum measured seasonal deformation for the deepest extensometers. The total ground-water inflow and outflow of about 225,500 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the period 1970–89 and of about 205,300 acre-feet per year for the period for the period 1970–99 is comparable with that of the previous model, 207,200 acre-ft/yr for the period 1970–89. Overall the simulated net change in storage increased by about 189,500 acre-ft/yr for the entire period of simulation, which represents about one and a half years of the 1970–99 average pumping. The changes in ground-water flow and storage generally reflect the major climate cycles and the additional importation of water by Santa Clara Valley Water District, with the basin in recovery since the drought of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The average total recharge rate, from natural and artificial recharge and from streamflow infiltration for the revised model for the entire simulation period 1970–99, was about 157,100 acre-ft/yr, which represents about 59 percent of the inflow to the ground-water flow system. The average rate of artificial recharge of about 77,600 acre-ft/yr represents about 30 percent of the inflow to the ground-water flow system. The average pumpage for the entire 29.75-year simulation period is about 133,400 acre-ft/yr and represents about 69 percent of the outflow from the ground-water flow system. Most of the simulated recharge infiltrates and flows through the uppermost layers (i.e. model layers 1 and 3) of the aquifer system. Most of the water that flows to the deeper model layers is occurring through wellbores, with wellbore flow representing 19 percent of the total ground-water inflow between model layers.

California↗

An initial investigation of multidimensional flow and transverse mixing characteristics of the Ohio River near Cincinnati, Ohio

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic and transport models were applied to a 34-mile reach of the Ohio River from Cincinnati, Ohio, upstream to Meldahl Dam near Neville, Ohio. The hydrodynamic model was based on the generalized finite-element hydrodynamic code RMA2 to simulate depth-averaged velocities and flow depths. The generalized water-quality transport code RMA4 was applied to simulate the transport of vertically mixed, water-soluble constituents that have a density similar to that of water. Boundary conditions for hydrodynamic simulations included water levels at the U.S. Geological Survey water-level gaging station near Cincinnati, Ohio, and flow estimates based on a gate rating at Meldahl Dam. Flows estimated on the basis of the gate rating were adjusted with limited flow-measurement data to more nearly reflect current conditions. An initial calibration of the hydrodynamic model was based on data from acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys and water-level information. These data provided flows, horizontal water velocities, water levels, and flow depths needed to estimate hydrodynamic parameters related to channel resistance to flow and eddy viscosity. Similarly, dye concentration measurements from two dye-injection sites on each side of the river were used to develop initial estimates of transport parameters describing mixing and dye-decay characteristics needed for the transport model. A nonlinear regression-based approach was used to estimate parameters in the hydrodynamic and transport models. Parameters describing channel resistance to flow (Manning’s “n”) were estimated in areas of deep and shallow flows as 0.0234, and 0.0275, respectively. The estimated RMA2 Peclet number, which is used to dynamically compute eddy-viscosity coefficients, was 38.3, which is in the range of 15 to 40 that is typically considered appropriate. Resulting hydrodynamic simulations explained 98.8 percent of the variability in depth-averaged flows, 90.0 percent of the variability in water levels, 93.5 percent of the variability in flow depths, and 92.5 percent of the variability in velocities. Estimates of the water-quality-transport-model parameters describing turbulent mixing characteristics converged to different values for the two dye-injection reaches. For the Big Indian Creek dye-injection study, an RMA4 Peclet number of 37.2 was estimated, which was within the recommended range of 15 to 40, and similar to the RMA2 Peclet number. The estimated dye-decay coefficient was 0.323. Simulated dye concentrations explained 90.2 percent of the variations in measured dye concentrations for the Big Indian Creek injection study. For the dye-injection reach starting downstream from Twelvemile Creek, however, an RMA4 Peclet number of 173 was estimated, which is far outside the recommended range. Simulated dye concentrations were similar to measured concentration distributions at the first four transects downstream from the dye-injection site that were considered vertically mixed. Farther downstream, however, simulated concentrations did not match the attenuation of maximum concentrations or cross-channel transport of dye that were measured. The difficulty of determining a consistent RMA4 Peclet was related to the two-dimension model assumption that velocity distributions are closely approximated by their depth-averaged values. Analysis of velocity data showed significant variations in velocity direction with depth in channel reaches with curvature. Channel irregularities (including curvatures, depth irregularities, and shoreline variations) apparently produce transverse currents that affect the distribution of constituents, but are not fully accounted for in a two-dimensional model. The two-dimensional flow model, using channel resistance to flow parameters of 0.0234 and 0.0275 for deep and shallow areas, respectively, and an RMA2 Peclet number of 38.3, and the RMA4 transport model with a Peclet number of 37.2, may have utility for emergency-planning purposes. Emergency-response efforts would be enhanced by continuous streamgaging records downstream from Meldahl Dam, real-time water-quality monitoring, and three-dimensional modeling. Decay coefficients are constituent specific.

Kentucky, Ohio↗

Simulation of zones of contribution to wells at site GM–38, Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant, Bethpage, New York

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model is coupled with the particle-tracking program MODPATH to delineate zones of contribution to wells pumping from the Magothy aquifer and supplying water to a chlorinated volatile organic compound removal plant at site GM–38, Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant, Bethpage, New York. By use of driller’s logs, a transitional probability approach generated three alternative realizations of heterogeneity within the Magothy aquifer to assess uncertainty in model representation. Finer-grained sediments with low hydraulic conductivity were realized as laterally discontinuous, thickening towards the south, and comprising about 17 percent of the total aquifer volume. Particle-tracking evaluations of a steady state present conditions model with alternative heterogeneity realizations were used to develop zones of contribution of remedial pumping wells. Because of heterogeneity and high rates of advection within the coarse-grained sediments, transport by dispersion and (or) diffusion was assumed to be negligible. Resulting zones of contribution of existing remedial wells are complex shapes, influenced by heterogeneity of each realization and other nearby hydrologic stresses. The use of two particle tracking techniques helped identify zones of contribution to wells. Backtracking techniques and observations of points of intersection of backward-tracked particles at shells of the GM–38 Hot Spot, as defined by surfaces of equal total volatile organic compound concentration, identified the source of water within the GM–38 Hot Spot to simulated wells. Forward-tracking techniques identified the fate of water within the GM–38 Hot Spot, including well capture and discharge to model constant head and drain boundaries. The percentage of backward-tracked particles, started at GM–38 wells that were sourced from within the Hot Spot, varied from 72.0 to 98.2, depending on the Hot Spot delineation used (present steady state model and Magothy aquifer heterogeneity realization A). The percentage of forward-tracked particles that were captured by GM–38 wells varied from 81.1 to 94.6, depending on the Hot Spot delineation used, with the remainder primarily captured by Bethpage Water District Plant 4 production wells (present steady state model and Magothy aquifer heterogeneity realization A). Less than 1 percent of forward-tracked particles ultimately discharge at model constant head and drain boundaries. The differences between forward- and backward-tracked particle percentage ranges are due to some forward-tracked particles not being captured by GM–38 wells, and some backward-tracked particles not intersecting specific regions of the Hot Spot. During 2013, an aquifer test generated detailed time series of well pumping rates and corresponding water-level responses were recorded at numerous locations. These data were used to verify the present conditions steady state model and demonstrate the sensitivity of model results to transient-state changes.

New York↗

Suspended-sediment budget, flow distribution, and lake circulation for the Fox Chain of Lakes in Lake and McHenry Counties, Illinois, 1997-99

The Fox Chain of Lakes is a glacial lake system in McHenry and Lake Counties in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Sedimentation and nutrient overloading have occurred in the lake system since the first dam was built (1907) in McHenry to raise water levels in the lake system. Using data collected from December 1, 1997, to June 1, 1999, suspended-sediment budgets were constructed for the most upstream lake in the system, Grass Lake, and for the lakes downstream from Grass Lake. A total of 64,900 tons of suspended sediment entered Grass Lake during the study, whereas a total of 70,600 tons of suspended sediment exited the lake, indicating a net scour of 5,700 tons of sediment. A total of 44,100 tons of suspended sediment was measured exiting the Fox Chain of Lakes at Johnsburg, whereas 85,600 tons entered the system downstream from Grass Lake. These suspended-sediment loads indicate a net deposition of 41,500 tons downstream from Grass Lake, which represents a trapping efficiency of 48.5 percent. A large amount of recreational boating takes place on the Fox Chain of Lakes during summer months, and suspended-sediment load was observed to rise from 110 tons per day to 339 tons per day during the 1999 Memorial Day weekend (May 26 ?31, 1999). Presumably, this rise was the result of the boating traffic because no other hydrologic event is known to have occurred that might have caused the rise. This study covers a relatively short period and may not represent the long-term processes of the Fox Chain of Lakes system, although the sediment transport was probably higher than an average year. The bed sediments found on the bottom of the lakes are composed of mainly fine particles in the silt-clay range. The Grass Lake sediments were characterized as black peat with an organic content of between 9 and 18 percent, and the median particle size ranged from 0.000811 to 0.0013976 inches. Other bed material samples were collected at streamflow-gaging stations on the tributaries to the Fox Chain of Lakes. With the exception of Grass Lake Outlet at Lotus Woods, most of the bed sediments are sand size or larger. The bed material at the streamflow-gaging station at Grass Lake Outlet at Lotus Woods contains 31.5 percent silt- and clay-sized particles. The bed material at Nippersink Creek near Spring Grove also has higher silt content (10.7 percent) than the bed material found in the Fox River at Wilmot (2.1 percent) and Johnsburg (1.3 percent). Additionally, water velocities at 80 cross sections in the Fox Chain of Lakes were collected to provide sample circulation patterns during two separate 1-week periods, and discharge was measured at 18 locations in the lakes. These data were collected to be available for use in hydrodynamic models.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Simulation of the recharge area for Frederick Springs, Dane County, Wisconsin

The Pheasant Branch watershed in Dane County is expected to undergo development. There are concerns that this development will adversely affect water resources, including Frederick Springs, a large spring complex in the watershed. The spring's recharge area was delineated using a telescopic mesh refinement (TMR) model constructed from an existing regional-scale ground-water flow model, and further refined by adding nearby surface-water features, a refined recharge array based on a surface-water model, and increasing the vertical leakage between the deep aquifers. This TMR model was formally optimized using the parameter estimation code UCODE. The results of optimization demonstrated that the best fit to measured heads and fluxes was obtained by using a horizontal hydraulic conductivity two times that of the original regional model for layer 2 and 80 percent smaller for layer 3. This range of parameter values was formally considered using a stochastic Monte Carlo approach. Two-hundred model runs used uniformly distributed, randomly sampled, horizontal hydraulic conductivity values within the range given by the TMR optimized values and the previously constructed regional model. A probability distribution of particles captured by the spring, or a probabilistic capture zone' was calculated from the realistic Monte Carlo results (136 runs of 200). In addition to portions of the local surface watershed, the capture zone encompassed distant areas in the North Fork of the Pheasant Branch watershed and areas entirely outside of the Pheasant Branch - demonstrating that the ground-watershed and surface watershed do not coincide. Analysis of samples from the springs and a nearby municipal well identified large contrasts in chemistry, even for springs within 50 feet of one another. The differences were stable over time, were present in both ion and isotope analyses, and showed a distinct gradation from high nitrate, high calcium, Ordovician-carbonate dominated water in western spring vents to low nitrate, lower calcium, Cambrian-sandstone influenced water in eastern spring vents. The difference in chemistry was attributed to distinctive bedrock geology as demonstrated by overlaying the 50 percent probability capture zone over a bedrock geology map for the area. This finding gives additional confidence to the capture zone calculated by the ground-water flow model.

Wisconsin↗

Theoretical drawdown due to simulated pumpage from the Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Siloam, Kentucky

Theoretical drawdown due to simulated pumpage was determined for a site near Siloam, Kentucky by using a digital ground-water-flow model. The maximum sustained yield of water from the single well was shown to be less than 900 gallons per minute, and, for a simulated pumping rate of 450 gallons per minute from each of several wells, the optimum placement for either minimum water-level drawdown or minimum spacing of multiple wells was found to be in a line parallel to and at a distance of about 370 to 600 feet from the Ohio River. An analytical method was used to verify the optimum placement of wells determined by the digital model. (Woodard-USGS)

Kentucky↗

Computer simulation of two-dimensional unsteady flows in estuaries and embayments by the method of characteristics : Basic theory and the formulation of the numerical method

Two-dimensional unsteady flows of homogeneous density in estuaries and embayments can be described by hyperbolic, quasi-linear partial differential equations involving three dependent and three independent variables. A linear combination of these equations leads to a parametric equation of characteristic form, which consists of two parts: total differentiation along the bicharacteristics and partial differentiation in space. For its numerical solution, the specified-time-interval scheme has been used. The unknown, partial space-derivative terms can be eliminated first by suitable combinations of difference equations, converted from the corresponding differential forms and written along four selected bicharacteristics and a streamline. Other unknowns are thus made solvable from the known variables on the current time plane. The computation is carried to the second-order accuracy by using trapezoidal rule of integration. Means to handle complex boundary conditions are developed for practical application. Computer programs have been written and a mathematical model has been constructed for flow simulation. The favorable computer outputs suggest further exploration and development of model worthwhile. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Saline water at the base of the glacial-outwash aquifer near Vincennes, Knox County, Indiana

A plume of saline water at the base of the glacial outwash aquifer near Vincennes, Indiana, has been drawn into the municipal well field. However, the average chloride concentration of the municipal water, 30 + or - 5 milligrams per liter, did not change significantly from 1976 to 1979. The plume , and elongated lens approximately 6,500 feet long by 1,500 feet wide, is 4 feet thick near the well field, and the chloride concentration of the water is 3,500 milligrams per liter. Half a mile to the west the thickness is 18 feet, and the chloride concentration is 5,100 milligrams per liter. The saline water seems to be entering the outwash aquifer through bedrock fractures near abandoned oil wells west of the well field. The fractures probably intersect unplugged intervals of the abandoned oil wells that convey saline water from bedrock aquifers at unknown depths. Digital model analysis indicates that doubling the 1978 pumping rate in the well field would cause water-levels declines of generally less than 8 feet. Solute-transport model analyses indicate that the chloride concentration of the well-field water would be less than 250 milligrams per liter for a saline-water intrusion rate ten times the model-calibrated rate. (USGS)

Indiana↗

Surface-water quality assessment of the Clover Creek basin, Pierce County, Washington, 1991-92

Increasing urbanization in the 67-square-mile Clover Creek Basin has generated interest in the effects of land-use changes on local water quality. To investigate these effects, water-quality and streamflow data were collected from 19 surface-water sites in the basin over a 16-month period from January 1991 through April 1992. These data were used to understand the effects of surficial geology, land-use practices, and wastewater disposal practices on surface-water quality within the basin. The basin was divided into four drainage subbasins with dissimilar hydrogeologic, land-use, and water-quality characteristics. In the Upper Clover Creek subbasin, the high permeability of surficial geologic materials promotes infiltration of precipitation to ground water and thus attenuates the response of streams to rainfall. Significant interaction occurs between surface and ground water in this subbasin, and nitrate concentrations and specific conductance values, similar to those found historically in local ground water, indicate that sources such as subsurface waste-disposal systems and fertilizers are affecting surface- water quality in this area. In the Spanaway subbasin, the presence of Spanaway and Tule Lakes affects water quality, primarily because of the reduced velocity and long residence time of water in the lakes. Reduced water velocity and long residence times (1) cause settling of suspended materials, thereby reducing concentrations of suspended sediment and constituents that are bound to the sediment; (2) promote biological activity, which tends to trap nutrients in the lakes; and (3) allow dispersion to attenuate peaks in discharge and water-quality constituent concentrations. In the North Fork subbasin, the low permeability of surficial geologic materials and areas of intensive land development inhibit infiltration of precipitation and thus promote surface runoff to streams. Surface pathways provide little attenuation of storm runoff and result in rapid increases in stream discharge in response to rainfall. Substantial increases in concentrations of constituents associated with surface wash off, for example, suspended sediment, ammonia, phosphorus, and fecal coliform, also were observed in this subbasin during rainfall. In the Lower Clover Creek subbasin, which is the most downstream subbasin, stream-discharge and water-quality characteristics show the integrated effects of the entire basin. The data show that further characterization of local ground water and discharge from stormwater outfalls entering Clover Creek and its tributaries would be necessary to successfully apply a numerical water-quality model to the basin.

Washington↗

Documented and potential extreme peak discharges and relation between potential extreme peak discharges and probable maximum flood peak discharges in Texas

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, conducted a study of extreme flood potential for Texas. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and their contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum expected peak discharge that could occur at a stream site. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were aggregated for 832 sites with and without streamflow-gaging stations in natural basins in Texas. A potential extreme peak discharge curve was developed for each of 11 hydrologic regions in Texas and for the State as a whole, based on documented extreme peak discharges and associated contributing drainage areas. The curve envelops, for a large range of drainage areas, the largest documented extreme peak discharges. Potential extreme peak discharges estimated from the curves were compared to probable maximum flood peak discharges estimated from various simulation models.

Texas↗

A dynamic water-quality modeling framework for the Neuse River estuary, North Carolina

As a result of fish kills in the Neuse River estuary in 1995, nutrient reduction strategies were developed for point and nonpoint sources in the basin. However, because of the interannual variability in the natural system and the resulting complex hydrologic-nutrient inter- actions, it is difficult to detect through a short-term observational program the effects of management activities on Neuse River estuary water quality and aquatic health. A properly constructed water-quality model can be used to evaluate some of the potential effects of manage- ment actions on estuarine water quality. Such a model can be used to predict estuarine response to present and proposed nutrient strategies under the same set of meteorological and hydrologic conditions, thus removing the vagaries of weather and streamflow from the analysis. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water-quality modeling framework was developed for the Neuse River estuary by using previously collected data. Development of the modeling framework consisted of (1) computational grid development, (2) assembly of data for model boundary conditions and model testing, (3) selection of initial values of model parameters, and (4) limited model testing. The model domain extends from Streets Ferry to Oriental, N.C., includes seven lateral embayments that have continual exchange with the main- stem of the estuary, three point-source discharges, and three tributary streams. Thirty-five computational segments represent the mainstem of the estuary, and the entire framework contains a total of 60 computa- tional segments. Each computational cell is 0.5 meter thick; segment lengths range from 500 meters to 7,125 meters. Data that were used to develop the modeling framework were collected during March through October 1991 and represent the most comprehensive data set available prior to 1997. Most of the data were collected by the North Carolina Division of Water Quality, the University of North Carolina Institute of Marine Sciences, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Limitations in the modeling framework were clearly identified. These limitations formed the basis for a set of suggestions to refine the Neuse River estuary water-quality model.

North Carolina↗

Habitat suitability index models: Coastal stocks of striped bass

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop estuarine habitat models for coastal stocks of striped bass (Morone saxatilis). Models for five life stages are scaled to produce an index of habitat suitability between 0 (unsuitable habitat) and 1 (optimally suitable habitat) for estuarine areas of the continental United States. Habitat suitability indexes are designed for use with the habitat evaluation procedures developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Guidelines for coastal striped bass model applications and techniques for estimating model variable are described.

FWS/OBS↗

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Northern pintail (gulf coast wintering)

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a model for evaluating wintering habitat quality for northern pintail (Anas acuta) along the Gulf of Mexico coast. The model is scaled to produce an index between unsuitable habitat) and 1.0 (optimal habitat). Habitat suitability index models are designed for use with the Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Guidelines for model application and techniques for measuring model variables are provided.

FWS/OBS↗

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Black-shouldered kite

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a model for evaluating black-shouldered kite habitat quality. The model is scaled to produce an index between 0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1.0 (optimal habitat). Habitat suitability index models are designed for use with the Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Guidelines for model application are provided.

FWS/OBS↗

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Black-bellied whistling-duck (breeding)

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a model for evaluating the quality of habitat for breeding black-bellied whistling-ducks. The model is scaled to produce an index between 0.0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1.0 (optimal habitat). Habitat suitability index models are designed to be used with Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Guidelines for model application and techniques for measuring model variable are provided.

FWS/OBS↗

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Juvenile spot

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop estuarine habitat models for juvenile spot (Leiostomus xanthurus). The models are scaled to produce an index of habitat suitability between 0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1 (optimally suitable habitat) for estuarine areas of the continental United States. Habitat suitability indexes (HSI's) are designed for use with the habitat evaluation procedures developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Guideline for juvenile spot model applications and techniques for estimating model variables are described.

FWS/OBS↗

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Clapper rail

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a model suitable for evaluating the quality of coastal habitat of clapper rails (Rallus longirostris). The model is scaled to produce an index of habitat suitability between 0 (unsuitable habitat) and 1 (optimally suitable habitat) for coastal areas of the continental United States. Habitat suitability indices are designed for use with Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Guidelines for clapper rail model applications and techniques for estimating model variables are discussed.

FWS/OBS↗

Total phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads from two main tributaries to Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2014–20

Total phosphorus (TP) and suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) and loads were computed at two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the upper Klamath River Basin on the Sprague (USGS site ID 11501000) and Williamson (USGS site ID 11502500) Rivers using high temporal resolution turbidity and streamflow data to develop surrogate regression models. Regression models were updated and validated for TP at the Williamson River site, and additional data improved a prior published TP model, increasing the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) from 0.73 to 0.88. A new TP regression model was developed for the Sprague River site using 2 years of data and showed promising results with an R 2 of 0.93. Suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) surrogate models were also updated at these sites using a longer period of record than the TP models and improved characterization of sediment transport conditions at these monitoring sites. Computations of TP loads were compared to the annual loading capacity dictated by the total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Upper Klamath Lake and showed that the combined TP load of the Williamson and Sprague Rivers approaches the annual loading capacity in water years with high annual streamflow. TP loads were also compared to loads computed by the Klamath Tribes using a long-term dataset and a regression and interpolation algorithm (RIA). The comparison showed that the two methods report similar annual loads, with the surrogate regression method generally reporting lower loads than the RIA, and the RIA annual loads falling within the range of uncertainty of the surrogate regression model results. Determining the effect of habitat and stream restoration on basin-scale TP and suspended-sediment loading is challenging using the surrogate regression method at these sites given the short period of record that TP and suspended-sediment load (SSL) data are available. However, long-term analysis by the Klamath Tribes in their larger monitoring network could provide insight into the impact of restoration at smaller spatial scales compared to the basin-wide assessment produced in this study.

Oregon↗