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USGS2018

High-water marks from Hurricane Sandy for coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, October 2012

Because coastal areas in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts were heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), under a mission agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, collected storm tide high-water marks in those coastal areas. This effort was undertaken to better understand the areal extent and impact of storm tides resulting from strong storms. On October 27–29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved up the eastern coast of the United States after passing over the Bahamas. On October 29 at about 7:30 p.m. eastern daylight time, Hurricane Sandy made landfall its final time near Brigantine, New Jersey, with recorded wind speeds of about 80 miles per hour. The damages from Hurricane Sandy exceeded $50 billion in total, making it the second most costly Atlantic hurricane at that time, second only to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Hurricane Sandy also resulted in 147 deaths, and about 650,000 homes and many businesses being damaged along the eastern coast of the United States. The severity of Hurricane Sandy’s effects resulted in presidential disaster declarations being declared in 10 States from Virginia to Massachusetts and the District of Columbia in the months following Hurricane Sandy; the list of States affected included Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. In response to the approach of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS deployed 60 temporary storm tide sensors and 2 temporary real-time rapid deployment gages to collect tide elevation data during the storm along the coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. This activity was done from Virginia to Maine before the storm. Following Hurricane Sandy, in October and November 2012, 371 storm tide high-water marks were identified and flagged in the coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. High-water marks near USGS temporary storm tide sensors, real-time rapid deployment gages, and streamgages affected by the tides as well as high-water marks on Block Island, R.I., and Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, Mass., were surveyed at the same time the high-water marks were identified and flagged in October and November 2012. The remaining high-water marks flagged during October and November 2012 were surveyed from December 2013 through June 2014 and in December 2016. Elevations of all high-water marks were referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 and horizontal coordinates to the North American Datum of 1983 using the Global Navigation Satellite System, survey-grade Digital Global Positioning System receivers, and total station surveying equipment. Of the 371 storm tide high-water marks flagged following Hurricane Sandy, only 364 high-water marks were surveyed; the remaining 7 could not be found or had been destroyed when locations were revisited to conduct surveys. The 157 high-water marks surveyed in Connecticut had elevations that ranged from 2.5 to 12.2 feet (ft) with an average elevation of 8.1 ft and a median elevation of 8.3 ft. The 76 high-water marks in Rhode Island had elevations that ranged from 3.6 to 16.2 ft and averaged 7.1 ft with a median of 6.6 ft. The 131 high-water marks in Massachusetts had elevations that ranged from 2.8 to 22.7 ft and averaged 7.3 ft with a median of 6.6 ft. Individual information on the location, type, accuracy, and elevation of the 371 high-water marks can be found in an accompanying USGS data release and at the USGS Flood Event Viewer website for Hurricane Sandy ( https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/#Sandy ). The high-water marks along the coast line of Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts, including Nantucket, generally had higher storm tide elevations than the coast line of Rhode Island including Block Island and southern Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard. The high-water mark elevations compare well with recorded peak-storm tide data at USGS temporary storm tide sensors and real-time rapid deployment gages deployed for Hurricane Sandy in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. High-water mark data collected following Hurricane Sandy will be used by Federal, State, and local government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, universities, and the public for better understanding the areal extent and impact of the storm tides. Additionally, these data can be used for such activities as land-use planning, flood risk studies, flood resiliency studies, and coastal modeling. These data from this historic storm can be compared with other regional hurricanes and tropical storms for planning into the future.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island↗

USGS1989

Geology of the Arabian Peninsula; shield area of western Saudi Arabia

Western Arabia lies within the low-latitude desert of north Africa and the Middle East, the core being the Arabian segment of the African Shield. The core of complex basement rocks accounts for about 670,000 km 2 , or one-third of the Arabian Peninsula. Reconnaissance mapping of these crystalline rocks, together with bordering sedimentary rocks and volcanic flows, begun in 1950, resulted during the next 13 years in a series of geologic and geographic maps without extensive texts. The maps served as general guides for development of natural resources, including water supplies, ore deposits, and building materials. An intensive exploration program that began in 1963 and involved numerous geologists has vastly increased geologic information. Rainfall in Arabia is meager and episodic, and vegetation is sparse except in isolated copses on the crest of the Hejaz Range. Comparison of flora with similar species in the Sudan, where records of rainfall have long been kept, allows evaluation of mean annual precipitation. Wandering bedouin following fodder created a delicate balance between population and water supply-now disturbed by wells drilled in alluvium and lava fields. A trapezoidal region of Precambrian crystalline rocks lies along the northeast flank of the Red Sea, with two long prongs extending northwest and southeast for a total of 1,800 km. These basement rocks of the Arabian Shield are well exposed on the uplands, scarp mountains, and coastal pediments where the Phanerozoic cover rocks have been stripped as a result of Paleozoic epeirogeny and Tertiary ramping. The shield outcrops are divided into three tectonic provinces by N. 45°W.- trending shear zones of the Najd fault system of latest Proterozoic and possibly earliest Paleozoic time. The southwestern province, the 'Asir1 upland, was sharply uplifted and tilted to the northeast during the Neogene. The northwestern province, consisting of the Ash Shifa'- Hisma upland as well as Jabal Shammar farther east, similarly was uplifted and tilted. These two provinces are separated by the flat-lying median N ajd province, which is chiefly bounded by the principal Najd faults. The outcrops of the shield rocks are of the Late Proterozoic Eonupper Riphean to Vendian or Infracambrian epochs, including the Ediacarian System. The most reliable isotopic ages range from about 900 to 560 m.y., but some Middle Proterozoic rocks may be present in the easternmost shield. The rocks are divided into six lithostratigraphic sequences, two plutonic suites, and an ophiolitic suite. The mafic and ultramafic volcanic and plutonic rocks of the ophiolitic suite everywhere were emplaced tectonically and are probably of different ages in different places. Some ophiolite occurs as obducted blocks, but most is highly deformed and altered to serpentinite in fault zones that mostly define sutures between different tectonic blocks or terranes within the shield. Three of the lithostratigraphic sequences consist of mafic to silicic volcanic rocks and volcanic-derived clastic rocks which, with their subvolcanic plutonic rocks of a dioritic suite, probably formed in oceanic island arcs during convergent plate tectonism. These rocks make up the primary, or first-formed, crust of the shield. Chemical analyses show that the primary shield rocks, regardless of age, are principally calc-alkalic with some associated tholeiitic varieties. Most of the layered rocks are andesitic, but they range from basalt to dacite and in places contain intercalated pillow basalt, marble, chert, and carbonaceous or graphitic schist. Most of the plutonic rocks of the dioritic suite are dioritic, but they range from gabbro to trondhjemite and rarely contain potassium feldspar. The sequences and an associated dioritic suite become younger toward the eastern shield, that is, the primary crust of the shield youngs toward the east. Two western sequences consist of the Jiddah (Samran) and BaishBahah Groups and range in radiometric age from about 900 to 800 m.y.; the eastern sequence consists of the Halaban (Hulayfah) Group and ranges from 800 to about 700 m.y. During subsequent orogeny, most of the rocks were intensely deformed and mostly metamorphosed to upper greenschist facies, but rising in places to the almandine-amphibolite facies. Two other lithostratigraphic sequences with an associated plutonic granitic suite are the products of two mountain-building episodes during which the primary crust was greatly thickened and converted into craton. The two sequences, including largely the Ablah (Al Ays) and Murdama (Shammar) Groups, consist of abundant sedimentary rocks, commonly arkosic, that are the erosional products of the orogenic mountains. They are several thousand meters thick. Less abundant calc-alkalic to alkalic volcanic rocks, commonly dacitic and rhyolitic, are intercalated with the sedimentary rocks. The plutonic rocks of the granitic suite in association with both sequences have syntectonic and posttectonic phases, are products of the orogenies, and are the principal new ingredients making up the craton. Gneiss domes were a significant part of these cratonization orogenies. In association with orogenic crustal heating, some of the low-density, more silicic tonalitic and trondhjemitic rocks of the primary crust rose as gneiss domes. Partial melting in the middle or lower crust below the gneiss domes produced large volumes of granitic magma that intruded the gneiss domes as granodioritic batholiths. The Ablah Group and the older part of the granitic suite are about 775 to 740 Ma old and are associated with the Ablah orogeny and early cratonization in the western and earlier formed half of the shield. The Murdama (Shammar) Group and the younger part of the granitic suite are about 660 to 580 Ma old and are associated with the culminant orogeny and late cratonization that was shieldwide. The granitic suite during both orogenies consists of early, syntectonic granodiorite batholiths associated with the gneiss domes and late, posttectonic monzogranite plutons. Only during the culminant orogeny, late magmatic evolution produced syenogranite and alkali-feldspar granite commonly in circular and ring-structured plutons and with associated explosive volcanic deposits (Shammar Group); final products, some of which have economic potential, were peralkalic and peraluminous. The late plutonism of the culminant orogeny was distinctly bimodal in that subordinate gabbroic rocks are associated with the granites. Various building blocks or terranes of the andesitic and dioritic primary crust were collisionally agglomerated during the Ablah orogeny, early cratonization, whereas the entire shield as currently exposed was further collisionally accreted and compressionally consolidated during the culminant orogeny, final cratonization. Thousands of kilometers of oceanic crust had to be subducted in about 300 m.y. to form the large primary crust of the Arabian Shield. The inevitable collisional events during consumption of such a large volume of oceanic crust invariably led to numerous collisional orogenies that collectively encompass the widely known Pan African tectonic episode. The youngest lithostratigraphic sequence, the Jubaylah Group, is essentially postcratonic, although it is the end product of the collisional culminant orogeny. Final east-west compression of the entire shield from about 580 to 560 m.y. caused the craton to fracture along the large northwest-trending, left-lateral faults and elsewhere along lesser, northeast-trending, right-lateral, conjugate faults of the N ajd fault system. Erosional products of this more localized deformation were the sedimentary rocks of the Jubaylah Group, which also includes intercalated andesitic to basaltic volcanic rocks of a mafic alkalic compositional trend. The collisional edge of an old continental plate (or tectonic fragments thereof), suspected on the eastern edge of the Arabian Shield, has not been shown with certainty to be exposed. Presumably, widespread contamination from such an old continental crust affects U/Pb, Sm/Nd, Rb/Sr, and common lead ratios in the young plutonic rocks of the easternmost shield. One mass of anorthosite near Jabal Khida' on the central eastern edge of the shield may be a fragment of this old continental plate in that associated granodiorite may be as old as 1,600 to 1,800 Ma. Epeirogenic uplift, erosion, and cooling of the uppermost shield during Early and Middle Cambrian time is indicated by an average fission track age of 510±52 m.y., on sphene from diorite (hornblende K-Ar age of 615±12 m.y.) in the southwestern part of the shield. The hiatus was followed by extensive deposition of the Cambro-Ordovician Saq Sandstone in the north and northeast and the Wajid Sandstone in the southeast and south of the shield. The Cambrian Siq Sandstone had already been deposited in the northern part. During the middle and late Paleozoic, broad epeirogeny caused further erosion of the shield until marine transgression deposited the Upper Permian Khuff Formation at least in the eastern part of the shield. In the southwestern shield, the nonmarine Upper Triassic Khums Sandstone was deposited variably on Wajid or Precambrian rocks and is overlain by limestone of the middle Upper Jurassic Amran Formation. Except for shallow marine sandstone of problematic Cretaceous age deposited on the Amran Formation in the south.western shield and on Precambrian rocks in the northwestern shield, the younger beds on the shield are Paleocene and younger, with the possibility that the lowermost are upper Maestrichtian. The early Tertiary beds contain vertebrate fossils of coastal marine or estuarine environment 250 km east of the Red Sea in the central shield. Marginal marine sediments were deposited in a western tongue of the latest Tethys Sea as late as Eocene on the western shield and at least as far south as Jiddah. The great harrats of flood basalt erupted on th~ western shield during late Oligocene and early Miocene at the same time a 2,000-kmlong continental rift valley developed along the future Red Sea axis. Within this rift valley, Baid freshwater tuffaceous lakebeds were deposited between mafic and silicic volcanoes. During late early Miocene time, the Red Sea opened at a rate of 4.4 cm/yr in a firststage movement while continental dikes and swarms of oceanic tholeiitic dikes, gabbro, and granophyre plutonic rocks were intruded into the rift sedimentary and volcanic rocks at the newly formed continental margin. The continental margin was deformed and greatly extended at this time. About 14 or 15 m.y., as the first-stage spreading stopped, the Red Sea Escarpment rose; its erosion caused deposition of coarse conglomerate of the Bathan Formation. About 3,000 m of evaporite was deposited on the young Red Sea oceanic crust during the late Miocene desiccation crisis. A second stage of sea-floor spreading about 4-5 m.y. produced the Red Sea axial trough, consisting of oceanic crust, as well as renewed uplift and tilting of the three tectonic provinces in response to compression from counterclockwise rotation against the Dead Sea Rift. This late movement caused widespread major stream capture, especially along the wadis that formerly drained southwesterly or northwesterly, the channels turning westward through narrow gorges to the coastal plain and the Red Sea.

Professional Paper↗

USGS1993

Distribution, facies, ages, and proposed tectonic associations of regionally metamorphosed rocks in east- and south-central Alaska

Most of the exposed bedrock in east- and south-central Alaska has been regionally metamorphosed and deformed during Mesozoic and early Cenozoic time. All the regionally metamorphosed rocks are assigned to metamorphic-facies units on the basis of their temperature and pressure conditions and metamorphic age. North of the McKinley and Denali faults, the crystalline rocks of the Yukon- Tanana upland and central Alaska Range compose a sequence of dynamothermally metamorphosed Paleozoic and older(?) metasedimentary rocks and metamorphosed products of a Devonian and Mississippian continental-margin magmatic arc. This sequence was extensively intruded by postmetamorphic mid-Cretaceous and younger granitoids. Many metamorphic-unit boundaries in the Yukon-Tanana upland are low-angle faults that juxtapose units of differing metamorphic grade, which indicates that metamorphism predated final emplacement of the fault-bounded units. In some places, the relation of metamorphic grade across a fault is best explained by contractional faulting; in other places, it is suggestive of extensional faulting. Near the United States-Canadian border in the central Yukon- Tanana upland, metamorphism, plutonism, and thrusting occurred during a latest Triassic and Early Jurassic event that presumably resulted from the accretion of a terrane that had affinities to the Stikinia terrane onto the continental margin of North America. Elsewhere in the Yukon-Tanana upland, metamorphic rocks give predominantly late Early Cretaceous isotopic ages. These ages are interpreted to date either the timing of a subsequent Early Cretaceous episode of crustal thickening and metamorphism or, assuming that these other areas were also originally heated during the latest Triassic to Early Jurassic and remained buried, the timing of their uplift and cooling. This uplift and cooling may have resulted from extension. South of the McKinley and Denali faults and north of the Border Ranges fault system, medium-grade metamorphism across much of the southern Peninsular and Wrangellia terranes was early to synkinematic with the intrusion of tonalitic and granodioritic plutons of primarily Early and Middle Jurassic age in the Peninsular terrane and Late Jurassic age in the Wrangellia terrane. Areas metamorphosed during the Jurassic episode that crop out near the Border Ranges fault system were subsequently retrograded and deformed in Cretaceous and early Tertiary time during accretion of younger units to the south. North of the Jurassic metamorphic and plutonic complex, low-grade metamorphism affected the rest of the Wrangellia terrane sometime during Jurassic and (or) Cretaceous time. North of the Wrangellia terrane and immediately south of the McKinley and Denali faults, flyschoid rocks, which were deposited within a basin that separated the Wrangellia terrane from the western margin of North America, form a northeastward-tapering wedge. Within the western half of the wedge, flysch and structurally interleaved tectonic fragments were highly deformed and weakly metamorphosed; much of the metamorphism and deformation probably occurred sometime during mid- to Late Cretaceous time. In the eastern half of the wedge, flyschoid rocks form an intermediate-pressure Barrovian sequence (Maclaren metamorphic belt). Metamorphism of the Maclaren metamorphic belt was synkinematic with the Late Cretaceous to earliest Tertiary intrusion of foliated plutons of intermediate composition. Isotopic data suggest metamorphism extended into the early Tertiary and was accompanied by rapid uplift and cooling. Low- to medium-grade metamorphism throughout the wedge was probably associated with the accretion of the outboard Wrangellia terrane, as has been proposed for the Maclaren metamorphic belt. South of the Border Ranges fault system lie variably metamorphosed sequences of oceanic rocks that comprise the successively accreted Chugach, Yakutat, Ghost Rocks, and Prince William terranes. The Chugach terrane consists of three successively accreted sequences of differing metamorphic histories. Metamorphism in all the sequences was associated with north-directed underthrusting beneath either the combined Peninsular-Wrangellia terrane or the older and inner parts of the Chugach terrane. These sequences, from innermost to outermost are: (1) intermediate- to highpressure, transitional greenschist- to blueschist-facies metabasalt and metasedimentary rocks that were metamorphosed during the Early and Middle Jurassic; (2) prehnite-pumpellyite-facies melange that was metamorphosed sometime during the Jurassic and Cretaceous; and (3) low-pressure prehnite-pumpellyite- or greenschist- facies flysch and metavolcanic rocks that were initially metamorphosed during latest Cretaceous to early Tertiary time and, in the eastern Chugach Mountains, were subsequently overprinted by low-pressure amphibolite-facies metamorphism that accompanied widespread intrusion during Eocene time. A similar low-pressure-facies series also developed within melange and flysch of the Yakutat terrane; these rocks are also intruded by Eocene plutons and are correlated with similar rocks of the Chugach terrane. Seaward of the Chugach terrane are the strongly deformed but weakly metamorphosed (prehnite-pumpellyite-facies) deep-sea metasedimentary rocks and oceanic metavolcanic rocks of the Ghost Rocks and Prince William terranes. Metamorphism and deformation occurred during underthrusting of these terranes beneath the Chugach terrane in early Tertiary time and predated, perhaps by very little, intrusion by early Tertiary granitoids.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Status and trends of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2014

Executive Summary Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2014 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2013. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). Shortnose suckers (SNS) and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2014, we captured, tagged, and released 496 LRS at four lakeshore spawning areas and recaptured an additional 970 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,370 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Cinder Flats and Sucker Springs. In the Williamson River, we captured, tagged, and released 3,038 LRS and 267 SNS, and recaptured 762 LRS and 156 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote PIT tag antennas in the traps at the weir on the Williamson River and remote antenna systems that spanned the river at three different locations on the Williamson and Sprague Rivers detected a total of 23,446 LRS and 6,259 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream in the first and second weeks of April when water temperatures were increasing and greater than 10 °C. In contrast, upstream passage for SNS occurred in two pulses, one in early April and one in late April to early May, when water temperatures were increasing and near or greater than 12 °C. Finally, an additional 375 LRS and 884 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at pre-spawn staging areas in the northeastern part of the lake. Of these, 111 of the LRS and 390 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS captured at the staging areas that had encounter histories that were informative about their spawning location, 79 percent of the fish were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 13,200 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers included more than 36,400 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) between 1999 and 2012. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the rivers in 2000, for males from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the rivers in 2006 and 2012. Between 2001 and 2013, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 55 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 42 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation between 2002 and 2013. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 19,200 individuals. Most annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2012 were high (greater than 0.80), but SNS experienced more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, male survival was low in 2002. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial between 2001 and 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable between 2006 and 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 77 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 73 percent between 2001 and 2013. Decreases in abundance for both sexes likely are greater than these estimates indicate. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, especially for shortnose suckers. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗

USGS1993

Flow recommendations for maintaining riparian vegetation along the Upper Missouri River, Montana

Montana Power Company, Inc. (MPC) submitted a final license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on November 30, 1992. In this application, MPC proposed a plan for the protection of fish, wildlife, habitat, and water-quality resources. One concern was maintenance of woody riparian vegetation along the Missouri River, especially along the Wild and Scenic reach of the river, where the riparian forest occurs in relatively small discontinuous stands. The objectives of this project were 1) to recommend flows that would protect and enhance riparian forests along the Missouri River, and 2) to develop elements of an environmental monitoring program that could be used to assess the effectiveness of the recommended flows. Plains cottonwood ( Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera ) is the key structural component of riparian forests along the Missouri River. Therefore, we focused our analysis on factors affecting populations of this species. Previous work had demonstrated that the age structure of cottonwood populations is strongly influenced by aspects of flow that promote successfully establishment. In this study our approach was to determine the precise age of plains cottonwood trees growing along the Upper Missouri River and to relate years of establishment to the flow record. Our work was carried out between Coal Banks Landing and the Fred G. Robinson Bridge within the Wild and Scenic portion of the Missouri River. This segment of the river occupies a narrow valley and exhibits little channel migration. Maps and notes from the journals of Lewis and Clark (1804-1806) suggest that the present distribution and abundance of cottonwoods within the study reach is generally similar to presettlement conditions. Flows in the study reach are influenced by a number of dams and diversions, most importantly, Canyon Ferry and Tiber Dams. Although flow regulation has decreased peak flows and increased low flows, the gross seasonal pattern of flow has not been greatly altered. Most cottonwood establishment in our study reach occurred in years with a peak mean daily flow greater than 1,400 m 3 /s (49,434 cfs), or in the two years following such a flow. These years include 35 out of the 111 years of record, and account for establishment of 47 of 60 trees examined, a highly significant relationship. Infrequent establishment of cottonwood trees is not the result of scarcity of seed or seedlings. In the study reach seedlings become established most years on bare, relatively low surfaces deposited by the river. However, the high elevation of establishment of all trees dating to before 1978 indicates that only individuals established on high flood deposits are able to survive subsequent floods and ice jams. In order to maintain the present abundance of plains cottonwood in the study area we recommend flood flows in excess of 1,400 m 3 /s (49,434 cfs) measures as mean daily discharge at Fort Benton (U.S. Geological Survey gage 06090800) with a recurrence interval of approximately 9 years. Because cottonwood seeds remain viable for only a few weeks, and because seedling require a moist, bare surface, we further recommend maintenance of the historic timing of flooding with peak flood flows occurring between mid-May and late-June. Flow is not the only factor influencing cottonwood regeneration along this reach of the Missouri River. Land management, especially cattle grazing, is clearly having an impact, and changes in cottonwood populations could be expected if these practices were altered. However, the dependence of cottonwood establishment on high flow is clear in this reach in spite of the effects of other factors. Given the value of the resource, we strongly suggest establishment of a monitoring program to determine the effectiveness of the recommended flows and to provide the data necessary for refining them. We recommend a monitoring program that would include: 1) ten permanent, widely space channel cross sections for annual measurement of channel geometry and cottonwood establishment, growth, and survival; 2) five livestock enclosures to monitor the influence of grazing in the study area; and 3) low-elevation aerial photography of the reach every five years and after every flood to detect changes in channel geometry and forested area. Because cottonwood establishment is episodic, a long-term commitment to the monitoring effort is essential. In addition, cross sections and exclosures should be easy enough to access that measurements during flood years are possible.

Montana↗

USGS2014

Demographics and run timing of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and short nose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2012

Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during spring 2012 were used to describe the spawning migrations in that year and also were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations in 2011. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). Shortnose suckers (SNS) and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2012, we captured, tagged, and released 749 LRS at four lakeshore spawning areas and recaptured an additional 969 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,578 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Cinder Flats and Sucker Springs. In the Williamson River, we captured, tagged, and released 3,376 LRS and 299 SNS, and recaptured 551 LRS and 125 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote PIT tag antennas in the traps at the weir on the Williamson River and remote antenna systems that spanned the river at four different locations on the Williamson and Sprague Rivers detected a total of 19,321 LRS and 6,124 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream between late April and mid-May when water temperatures were increasing and greater than 10 °C. In contrast, most upstream passage for SNS occurred in early and mid-May when water temperatures were increasing and near or greater than 12 °C. Finally, an additional 1,188 LRS and 1,665 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at pre-spawn staging areas in the northeastern part of the lake. Of these, 291 of the LRS and 653 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS captured at the staging areas that had encounter histories that were informative about their spawning location, over 90 percent of the fish were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 12,150 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers included more than 29,500 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (greater than 0.9) between 1999 and 2010. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the rivers in 2000, for both sexes from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the rivers in 2006. Between 2001 and 2011, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by 53–65 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 36–48 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume that little or no recruitment occurred in 2006 or 2008, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation between 2002 and 2011. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 17,700 individuals. Most annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2010 were high (greater than 0.8), but SNS experienced more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was particularly low in 2001, 2004, and 2010. In addition, male survival was somewhat low in 2002. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial between 2001 and 2005. Models indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population in 2006, 2008, and 2009. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable between 2006 and 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006, 2008, and 2009 because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 71 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 69 percent between 2001 and 2011. The worst-case scenario, which assumes no recruitment and seems more likely, suggests an 86 percent decrease for males and an 81 percent decrease for females. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial declines in the abundance of spawning fish because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the adult spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. In fact, fork length data indicate that all populations are largely comprised of fish that were present in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, and the situation is especially dire for shortnose suckers. Future investigations should explore the connections between sucker recruitment and survival and various environmental factors, such as water quality and disease. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗

USGS2019

Biogeochemical and physical processes controlling mercury methylation and bioaccumulation in Lake Powell, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Utah and Arizona, 2014 and 2015

Mercury monitoring results from about 300 Morone saxatilis (striped bass) muscle tissue samples collected by the State of Utah from Lake Powell resulted in a Utah/Arizona fish consumption advisory issued in 2012 for approximately the lower 100 kilometers of the reservoir. Chemical, physical, and biological data were collected during two synoptic sampling cruises on Lake Powell during May/June 2014 and August 2015 to test three hypotheses associated with a conceptual model developed to explain the observed geographic concentration gradient of Hg in fish tissue samples. This model proposes that in the transition from a primarily riverine system to a reservoir, there is a change in the concentration and composition of water-column particulate material, increasing in the proportion of organic content moving downstream, as the larger size fractions of the inorganic particulate load are deposited in the upper reservoir. This change alleviates light limitation of phytoplankton production and leads to a higher proportion of autochthonous primary production in the downstream direction. This, in turn, drives increased microbial methylmercury (MeHg) production in the benthos and potentially the water column, in the downstream direction, and results in the observed elevated fish Hg levels in the lower part of the reservoir. The model also proposes that there are differences between the main stem of Lake Powell and side canyons, embayments, or secondary rivers entering the reservoir, in terms of Hg cycling dynamics and bioaccumulations, driven mainly by differences in hydrology. Finally, seasonal differences in Hg dynamics within the reservoir are proposed, based on seasonal dynamics associated with primary production and the physical process of seasonal stratification. A total of three statistically testable hypotheses were proposed and postulated that measurable differences in key Hg and non-Hg metrics exist between: (1) the upper and lower reservoir; (2) main stem and river arm/side canyon/embayment sites; and (3) early-season (May/June 2014, less stratified) and late-season (August 2015, stratified) conditions. Statistically modeled least square means in combination with the graphical analysis of Hg and non-Hg parameters were used to examine the data collected during the study and test these hypotheses. Data collected during the study are included in a U.S. Geological Survey data release and are available online at https://doi.org/10.5066/F74X560J . In general, water-column, plankton, and surface sediment samples collected during the synoptic sampling cruises are supportive of the three hypotheses associated with the conceptual model. In support of hypothesis 1 (comparing upper and lower reservoir sites), the least square mean for turbidity was higher in the upper reservoir. In contrast, surface water particulate organic carbon (as a percentage of total particulate mass), particulate MeHg (by mass [in nanograms per gram] and as a percentage of total mercury [THg]), and particulate-dissolved partitioning coefficients for THg and MeHg were higher in the lower reservoir. Plankton THg concentrations also were significantly (probability [ p ] less than (<) 0.05) higher in the lower reservoir. Surface sediment metrics in support of hypothesis 1 include higher MeHg production potential rates in the lower reservoir. In contrast, there were no statistically significant differences between the upper and lower reservoir for surface sediment percent of MeHg and MeHg concentration, percent MeHg, or methylation rate constants. These spatial trends associated with hypothesis 1 indicate a pathway for enhanced Hg bioavailability in the lower reservoir. Hypothesis 2, which tested for differences between main stem and river arm/side canyon/embayment sites, was supported by a number of water-column parameters, including particulate THg and MeHg concentrations by mass (in nanograms per gram) and percent particulate MeHg being significantly ( p <0.05) higher in the river arms, side canyons, and embayments relative to the main stem channel. Plankton MeHg concentrations (by mass [in nanograms per gram] and volume [in nanograms per liter] and as a percentage of THg) were elevated in river arm/side canyon/embayment sites compared to main stem sites, indicating an enhanced potential for MeHg bioaccumulation at the base of the pelagic food web in river arms, side canyons, and embayments. In contrast, few of the sediment metrics differed between main stem and river arm/side canyon/embayment sampling sites; however, the potential for MeHg degradation in surface sediment was significantly higher in the main stem. The data indicate that river arm/side canyon/embayment sites may experience enhanced Hg bioaccumulation, compared to the main stem, because of higher MeHg levels at the base of the pelagic food web. This conclusion is supported by the elevated Hg detected in striped bass muscle tissue samples collected in the San Juan Arm during this study (2014). Fish collected from the lower reservoir exhibited a distinct Hg isotopic signature that was enriched in delta (δ) 202 Hg and capital delta (Δ) 199 Hg relative to fish samples collected from either Good Hope Bay or the San Juan Arm. Hypothesis 3 tested for differences between early (May/June) high-flow and late (August) low-flow seasons. This test was supported by a range of non-Hg metrics (nitrate, phosphate, chlorophyll a , dissolved oxygen, fluorescent dissolved organic matter, temperature, and pH) that reflect the increase in chlorophyll a , decrease in nutrients, and buildup of stratified conditions in the transition from early- to late-season sampling periods. Significant seasonal differences also were noted for multiple Hg metrics, including (a) water-column filtered and particulate (by mass) MeHg and THg concentrations; (b) plankton MeHg and THg concentration (by mass); and (c) sediment percent MeHg, Hg(II)-methylation rate constant, and microbial ribosomal ribonucleic acid, small subunit 16 (16S rRNA) abundance, all of which were higher during the late-season synoptic sampling. Overall, the surface sediment metrics are consistent with a seasonal shift from the early-season synoptic results, when the availability of Hg(II) exerts a primary control on MeHg production, to the late-season synoptic sampling, when microbial activity is a dominant driver of MeHg production.

Arizona, Utah↗

USGS2012

Simulation of groundwater flow and hydrologic effects of groundwater withdrawals from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Pinelands of southern New Jersey

The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system is an important source of present and future water supply in southern New Jersey. Because this unconfined aquifer system also supports sensitive wetland and aquatic habitats within the New Jersey Pinelands (Pinelands), water managers and policy makers need up-to-date information, data, and projections that show the effects of potential increases in groundwater withdrawals on these habitats. Finite-difference groundwater flow models (MODFLOW) were constructed for three drainage basins (McDonalds Branch Basin, 14.3 square kilometers (km 2 ); Morses Mill Stream Basin, 21.63 km 2 ; and Albertson Brook Basin, 52.27 km 2 ) to estimate the effects of potential increases in groundwater withdrawals on water levels and the base-flow portion of streamflow, in wetland and aquatic habitats. Three models were constructed for each drainage basin: a transient model consisting of twenty-four 1-month stress periods (October 2004 through September 2006); a transient model to simulate the 5- to 10-day aquifer tests that were performed as part of the study; and a high-resolution, steady-state model used to assess long-term effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. All models were constructed with the same eight-layer structure. The smallest horizontal cell dimensions among the three model areas were 150 meters (m) for the 24-month transient models, 10 m for the steady-state models, and 3 m for the transient aquifer-test models. Boundary flows of particular interest to this study and represented separately are those for wetlands, streams, and evapotranspiration. The final variables calibrated from both transient models were then used in steady-state models to assess the long-term effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. Results of aquifer tests conducted in the three study areas illustrate the effects of withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. Pumping stresses at aquifer-test sites resulted in measurable drawdown in each observation well installed for the tests. The magnitude of drawdown in shallow wetland observation wells at the end of pumping ranged from 5.5 to 16.7 centimeters (cm). The stresses induced by the respective tests reduced the flow of the smallest stream (McDonalds Branch) by 75 percent and slightly reduced flow in a side channel of Morses Mill Stream, but did not measurably affect the flow of Morses Mill Stream or Albertson Brook. Results of aquifer-test simulations were used to refine the estimates of hydraulic properties used in the models and to confirm the ability of the model to replicate observed hydrologic responses to pumping. Steady-state sensitivity simulation results for a variety of single well locations and depths were used to define overall “best-case” (smallest effect on wetland water levels and base flow) and “worst-case” (greatest effect on wetland water levels and base flow) groundwater withdrawal configurations. “Best-case” configurations are those for which the extent of the wetland areas within a 1-kilometer (km) radius of the withdrawal well is minimized, the well is located at least 100 m and as far from wetland boundaries as possible, and the withdrawal is from a deep well (50–90 m deep). “Worst-case” configurations are those for which the extent of wetlands within a 1-km radius of the withdrawal well is maximized, the well is located 100 m or less from a wetland boundary, and the withdrawal is from a relatively shallow well (30–67 m deep). “Best-” and “worst-case” simulations were applied by locating hypothetical wells across the study areas and assigning groundwater withdrawals so that the sum of the withdrawals for the basin is equal to 5, 10, 15, and 30 percent of overall recharge. The results were compared to the results of simulations of no groundwater withdrawals. Results for withdrawals of 5 percent of recharge show that the area of wetland water-level decline that exceeded 15 cm was as much as 1.5 percent of the total wetland area for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 9.7 percent of the total wetland area for the “worst-case” simulations. For the same withdrawals, base-flow reduction was as much as 5.1 percent for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 8.6 percent for the “worst-case” simulations. Results for withdrawals of 30 percent of recharge show that the area of wetland water-level decline that exceeded 15 cm was as much as 70 percent of the total wetland area for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 84 percent of the total wetland area for the “worst-case” simulations. For the same withdrawals, base-flow reduction was as much as 30 percent for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 51 percent for the “worst-case” simulations. Results for withdrawals of 10 and 15 percent of recharge show decreased water levels and base flow that are intermediate between those simulated for 5 and 30 percent of recharge. Several approaches for applying the results of this study to other parts of the Pinelands were explored. An analytical-modeling technique based on the Thiem equation and image-well theory was developed to estimate local drawdown distributions resulting from withdrawals in other areas within the Pinelands. Results of example applications of this technique were compared with those of the numerical simulations used in this study and were shown to be useful. Differences among the three basins in the simulated percentage of basin wetlands affected by drawdown were found to be related to the proximity of wetlands to streams, the proximity of wetlands to pumped wells, and the vertical conductance of the aquifer system. These factors formed the basis for an index of wetland vulnerability to drawdown. An empirically-derived model based on the Gompertz function and the wetland vulnerability index was developed, tested, and shown to be an effective means to evaluate potential drawdown in wetlands at a basin scale throughout the Pinelands. Base-flow reduction can be estimated from generalized results of the numerical models, estimates of evapotranspiration reduction, or available regional groundwater flow models. These approaches could be used to evaluate alternative water-supply strategies and, in conjunction with ecological-modeling results, to determine maximum basin withdrawal rates within the limits of acceptable ecological change.

New Jersey↗

USGS2011

Simulations of groundwater flow and particle-tracking analysis in the zone of contribution to a public-supply well in San Antonio, Texas

In 2006, a public-supply well in San Antonio, Texas, was selected for intensive study to assess the vulnerability of public-supply wells in the Edwards aquifer to contamination by a variety of compounds. A local-scale, steady-state, three-dimensional numerical groundwater-flow model was developed and used in this study to evaluate the movement of water and solutes from recharge areas to the selected public-supply well. Particle tracking was used to compute flow paths and advective traveltimes throughout the model area and to delineate the areas contributing recharge and zone of contribution for the selected public-supply well. The local-scale model grid has a finer vertical discretization than do previous regional Edwards aquifer models and incorporates refined parameter zones corresponding with multiple (10) hydrogeologic units representing the Edwards aquifer. In the Edwards aquifer, high matrix porosity and permeability likely are overshadowed by high permeability developed in structurally influenced karstic conduit systems that transmit water into, through, and out of the aquifer system. The complexity of the aquifer system in the local-scale study area is further increased by numerous faults with varying vertical displacements. The extensive faulting results in the juxtaposition of hydrogeologic units with differing hydraulic properties and has appreciable effects on groundwater flow in the Edwards aquifer. The local-scale model simulations use the MODFLOW Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow Package and include two hydrogeologic units with high hydraulic conductivities (one or more orders of magnitude higher than for the other simulated hydrogeologic units) that are intended to simulate fast flow paths attributable to karst features. The two “conduit” hydrogeologic units of the Edwards aquifer represent the lower 8 meters of the leached and collapsed members and the Kirschberg evaporite member of the Edwards Group. The MODFLOW Horizontal-Flow Barrier Package was used to simulate faults in the local-scale model. The assumption was made that the degree to which a fault acts as a barrier to groundwater flow is proportional to the fault displacement. The final calibrated hydraulic-conductance values ranged from 0.01 to 0.2 per day for fault displacements ranging from 0 to more than 100 percent of the total aquifer thickness. The calibrated steady-state simulation generally reproduces the spatial distribution of measured water-level altitudes. Simulated water-level altitudes were within 9.0 meters of measured water-level altitudes at 74 of the 84 wells used as targets for the local-scale model for the calibrated steady-state simulation. The overall mean absolute difference between simulated and measured water-level altitudes is 4.2 meters, and the mean algebraic difference is 1.9 meters. The simulated springflow for San Antonio Springs was 7.7 percent greater and for San Pedro Springs was 4.2 percent less than the median measured springflow. Simulated tritium concentrations were within 0.14 tritium units of measured tritium concentrations for 11 of the 13 local-scale study tritium observations from the 10 local-scale study wells used to calibrate the steady-state local-scale model, with a mean absolute difference between simulated and measured tritium concentrations of 0.11 tritium units and a mean algebraic difference of -0.04 tritium units. Simulated tritium concentrations in the selected public-supply well during November 2007 were within 0.09 tritium units of the measured concentrations, with the exception of the shallowest observation from the well. The steady-state simulation water budget indicates that recharge occurring in the local-scale study area accounts for 31.8 percent of the sources of water to the Edwards aquifer in the local-scale model area and that inflow through the model boundaries contributes 68.2 percent. Most of the flow into the local-scale model area through the model boundaries occurs through the western and southern boundaries, 58.2 and 39.6 percent, respectively. The largest discharges from the Edwards aquifer in the local-scale model area are boundary outflow (71.4 percent) and withdrawals by wells (24.9 percent). Most of the flow out of the local-scale model area through the model boundaries occurs through the southern and eastern boundaries, 54.2 and 39.6 percent, respectively. The simulated zones of contribution for the selected public-supply well, Timberhill well nest, and Zarzamora well nest extend to the north, northeast, and northwest from each site in the confined zone of the aquifer into the recharge zone, where all recharge to the aquifer occurs. The area contributing recharge for the selected public-supply well has the greatest extent. The area contributing recharge for the Timberhill well nest encompasses approximately the western one-half of the area contributing recharge for the selected public-supply well, and that for the Zarzamora well nest encompasses approximately the eastern two-thirds of the area contributing recharge for the selected public-supply well. Simulated particle ages ranged from less than 1 day to more than 1,900 years in the 10 local-scale study wells (13 local-scale study tritium observations) used to calibrate the local-scale model. The simulated mean particle ages for the tritium observations representing selected well depths (shallow, intermediate, and deep) ranged from 2.5 to 15 years. The minimum (youngest) mean particle ages for the selected public-supply well and the Timberhill monitoring wells were for the intermediate well depth, while the youngest mean particle age for the Zarzamora monitoring wells was for the intermediate and deep well depth. The maximum (oldest) mean particle ages for the selected public-supply well and the Zarzamora monitoring wells were for the shallow well depth. The mean of simulated particle ages for tritium observations representing well depths open to the simulated conduit hydrogeologic units was 3.8 years, whereas the mean of simulated particle ages for tritium observations representing well depths not open to the simulated conduit hydrogeologic units was 9.6 years. The effect of short-circuit pathways, for example karst conduits, in the flow system on the movement of young water to the selected public-supply well could greatly alter contaminant arrival times compared to what might be expected from advection in a system without short circuiting. In a forecasting exercise, the simulated concentrations showed rapid initial response at the beginning and end of chemical input, followed by more gradual response as older water moved through the system. The nature of karst groundwater flow, where flow predominantly occurs via conduit flow paths, could lead to relatively rapid water quality responses to land-use changes. Results from the forecasting exercise indicate that timescales for change in the quality of water from the selected public-supply well could be on the order of a few years to decades for land-use changes that occur over days to decades, which has implications for source-water protection strategies that rely on land-use change to achieve water-quality objectives.

Texas↗

USGS2013

Review of revised Klamath River Total Maximum Daily Load models from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon

Flow and water-quality models are being used to support the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for the Klamath River downstream of Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in south-central Oregon. For riverine reaches, the RMA-2 and RMA-11 models were used, whereas the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to simulate pooled reaches. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to review the most upstream of these models, from Link River Dam at the outlet of UKL downstream through the first pooled reach of the Klamath River from Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam. Previous versions of these models were reviewed in 2009 by USGS. Since that time, important revisions were made to correct several problems and address other issues. This review documents an assessment of the revised models, with emphasis on the model revisions and any remaining issues. The primary focus of this review is the 19.7-mile Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River that was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Water spends far more time in the Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach than in the 1-mile Link River reach that connects UKL to the Klamath River, and most of the critical reactions affecting water quality upstream of Keno Dam occur in that pooled reach. This model review includes assessments of years 2000 and 2002 current conditions scenarios, which were used to calibrate the model, as well as a natural conditions scenario that was used as the reference condition for the TMDL and was based on the 2000 flow conditions. The natural conditions scenario included the removal of Keno Dam, restoration of the Keno reef (a shallow spot that was removed when the dam was built), removal of all point-source inputs, and derivation of upstream boundary water-quality inputs from a previously developed UKL TMDL model. This review examined the details of the models, including model algorithms, parameter values, and boundary conditions; the review did not assess the draft Klamath River TMDL or the TMDL allocations. Attention to the details of a model is one of the best ways to identify potential problems, correct them if possible, and begin to assess the magnitude of potential model errors and uncertainty. Model users need to determine the level of acceptable uncertainty associated with their objectives, identify all sources of potential uncertainty (model uncertainty, data uncertainty, etc.), and assess their approach and results accordingly. In the draft Klamath River TMDL, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality identified the upstream boundary conditions as the largest source of uncertainty for both the current and natural conditions scenarios, not the model algorithms or choice of model parameters. We agree that the upstream boundary conditions are one of the largest, if not the largest, source of model uncertainty; therefore, the derivation of upstream boundary conditions may be more important to the TMDL than some other model-related issues identified in this review. The revised models contain a number of changes, some of which were done to solve small problems and are largely inconsequential to model results, but others of which are important and affect model predictions of instream concentrations. A consistent version of the model is now applied to all scenarios, and an error in the source code was corrected that had inadvertently discarded 20 percent of the incoming solar radiation in the original model. The baseline light-extinction coefficient for water was decreased and set to a consistent and defensible value across all models of reservoir reaches. Inconsistencies among the values of certain parameters in the original models, such as the ammonia nitrification rate and the decomposition rates of organic matter, have been eliminated, although the reasoning behind the final selections was not documented. The dependence of the rate of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) on temperature was modified such that the SOD rate was substantially decreased at temperatures less than 20°C, causing the model to predict higher dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in spring, autumn, and winter. Although that change to the temperature dependence function was done to make the function more similar to the model’s default, this change was not accompanied by any documentation of recalibration or sensitivity exercises. The maximum SOD rate for the 2002 current conditions scenario was decreased from 3.0 grams per square meter per day (g/m 2 /d) in the original model to 2.0 g/m 2 /d in the revised model, a considerable adjustment that appears to have been needed to offset effects of a change to another variable (O2LIM) that would have resulted in a substantial increase in the effective SOD rate for 2002. A 50-percent decrease in the SOD rate over a 2-year period, however, is not likely to be mirrored by field measurements, so this change may be compensating for some process that is not represented correctly in the DO budget for the current conditions scenarios. Several important changes were made to the natural conditions scenario. First, the elevation of the Keno reef was corrected; the elevation specified in the original model was 1 foot too high, which affected the volume of the pooled reach and the travel time through it. The most important changes to this scenario were to the upstream boundary inputs of organic matter and algae, which affect incoming fluxes of nitrogen and phosphorus. Algal biomass inputs were increased by approximately 60 percent during summer because of a change in the way those inputs were derived from results of the UKL TMDL model. Non-algal organic matter inputs were decreased, particularly in summer to correct a problem attributed to double-counting of phosphorus in the original inputs. The distribution of non-algal organic matter was changed from 20 percent dissolved in the original model to 90 percent dissolved in the revised model in response to review comments and published data. The overall sum of algal biomass and non-living organic matter was decreased, which resulted in lower inputs of total phosphorus and nitrogen. Total phosphorus inputs were less than 0.03 mg/L, and although the inputs were derived from selected results of the UKL TMDL model, these concentrations seem too low to be representative of a historically eutrophic system surrounded by extensive wetlands, peat soils, and a groundwater system high in phosphorus. The draft TMDL states that the upstream boundary conditions are the greatest source of uncertainty, greater than any uncertainty associated with the models. Efforts to improve existing models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL, therefore, would provide a substantial benefit to downstream modeling efforts on the Klamath River. Although many improvements were made in revising the Klamath River TMDL models, some issues and uncertainties remain. Several errors in the model source code remain, but do not affect model results for this application as long as certain options and rates are not changed; future users of these models should be aware of these issues. Although the distribution of dissolved and particulate organic matter was modified for the natural conditions scenario, that distribution was not changed for the current conditions scenarios. Recent data on that distribution and the likely rates of organic matter decomposition could be used to improve these models in the future. Nitrate predictions at Keno (Highway 66) still are too high for the current conditions scenarios; future efforts should re-evaluate the model’s denitrification rates and the release rate of ammonia from anoxic sediments. Possibly the most important of the remaining issues are tied to the two-state (healthy/unhealthy) hypothesis for the algae population that was coded into the model. Some of the rates and conversion functions could be refined to make them more acceptable; currently, the published literature does not support the concept of moderately low dissolved-oxygen concentrations as a stressor of algae in the ranges used by the model. More research is needed before these algorithms can be truly tested. The algorithms currently appear to help the model fit the patterns in the available data, and that is useful and perhaps sufficient for some purposes, but those algorithms are not truly predictive or reliable for certain purposes until they can be tested through well-designed experiments and research. In summary, the TMDL models used to simulate Link and Klamath Rivers from Link River Dam to Keno Dam were revised to fix several problems and address various issues. The resulting models are an improvement over those that were reviewed by USGS in 2009, and represent a useful advance in the simulation of a complex system that is difficult to model. However, several issues remain that cause increased uncertainty in the model results. Depending on the objectives of the modeling, now or in the future, these remaining issues could be more or less important. For the Klamath River TMDL, the upstream boundary conditions may be a larger source of uncertainty than the concerns with model algorithms and model parameters identified in this review. Efforts to re-evaluate the available models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL would be highly beneficial to downstream modeling efforts in the Klamath River.

Oregon;California↗

USGS1999

Fishes of Missouri River, chute, and flood plain habitats: Chapter 4 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) is approximately 2,200 acres and is the first complete unit of the Refuge. Primary objectives of the Refuge are to create and restore diverse riverine aquatic habitats and reconnect the Missouri River to its flood plain where feasible. Management seeks to accomplish these objectives by encouraging natural processes of erosion, deposition, and succession to the greatest extent possible. One of the most salient aquatic features of the Lisbon Bottom Unit is a newly created 2-mile-long free-flowing chute, or side channel (Fig. 1). This chute began forming as a levee breech scour hole during the Great Flood of 1993. The chute continued to develop during the 1995 flood and finally cut through to a flowing side channel during the 1996 flood. Extensive erosion and bank sluffing continued during 1997 due to sustained high flows that occurred throughout most of the year. The chute has progressively become wider and deeper with a developing meander pattern and channel bars have begun to form. Lisbon Bottom also contains several seasonal and permanent wetlands and is subject to periodic flooding at high Missouri River stages. Eight studies have been completed or are ongoing to evaluate Missouri River fishes associated with various habitat components of Lisbon Bottom and adjacent Missouri River reaches (Table 1). Several are part of much larger investigations to evaluate fish use of flood-created habitat features, basinwide fish assessment, and endangered or candidate species concerns. At the Lisbon Bottom Unit or in the Missouri River adjacent to the unit 54 fish species were collected (Table 2). Eight of these species have either a protected status under State or Federal laws or biologists consider them to potentially qualify for protected status. The status of the following fish is listed in Table 2: pallid sturgeon x shovelnose sturgeon hybrid, paddlefish, northern pike, sturgeon chub, sicklefin chub, ghost shiner, western silvery minnow, plains minnow, and blue sucker. Equally important to note are fish species that were not collected. The flathead chub, currently listed as State endangered and proposed for Federal listing, were not collected in any of the studies. Common fish species, collected in all seven sampling studies, included gizzard shad, common carp, river carpsucker, and freshwater drum. Paddlefish, skipjack herring, silver carp, white sucker, redfin shiner, western silvery minnow, bullhead minnow, and black bullhead were each collected in only one of the seven studies. Pflieger (1971) developed a guild system for the fishes of Missouri based on distribution patterns and centers of abundance. Fish were assigned to one of four primary faunal groups: Ozark, Big River, Lowland, and Prairie. Two secondary groups (Ozark-prairie and Ozark-lowland) were defined for species equally abundant and distributed in two of the primary areas. Two Ozark-prairie species, shorthead redhorse and white sucker, were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Big River species are found primarily in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The environmental factors controlling fish distribution in these rivers appear to be substrate, current velocity, and turbidity. On or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit 18 Big River species were collected (Table 2). Lowland species are intolerant of siltation and high turbidity. They inhabit standing or slow-moving water with sand, fine gravel, and organic debris substrates. Two Lowland species, bullhead minnow and mosquitofish, were collected in connected scours on the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Prairie species have broader ecological tolerances than the Ozark and Lowland species. They are largely absent in high gradient streams and cool, clear waters. Prairie species make up a significant proportion of Missouri and Mississippi River fishes. Seven Prairie species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). The last group, Wide-ranging, was defined as the species more widespread than the other faunal groups with broader environmental tolerances. Most Wide-ranging species occur at least occasionally in all sections of the state. Nineteen Wide-ranging species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). Kubisiak (1997) found that isolated scours in the Lower Missouri River were dominated by Wide-ranging species. Connected scours also held Wideranging species but they contained Prairie species and were dominated by Big River species. Faunal group diversity and species richness were compared between isolated (Study l) and connected (Studies 4, 5, 7, and 8) scours of the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Species richness was similar with 22 species collected in isolated scours and an average of 24.8 species collected in connected scours. Isolated scour fish catches were dominated by Wide-ranging fish (59%) with 14% Big River fishes and 14% Prairie fishes. Connected scours had a larger percentage of Big River fish (32%) and fewer Wide-ranging (36%) and Prairie (13%) species than the isolated scours. In the combined studies, Wide-ranging fish dominated the connected scours. A similar comparison was made of fish from chute habitats and the Missouri River. Chute habitats include the Lisbon Bottom Chute, the chute between the right bank and island located at river mile 219, and a shallow channel running between a large sandbar complex and the channel border adjacent to Lisbon Bottom. Species richness in the chutes (35 species) was greater than that of the adjacent river (23 species). Big River species (40%) dominated the chute samples, followed by Wide-ranging at 31% Cand Prairie Cut 14%. The river samples contained equal numbers of Wide-ranging species (35%) and Big River species (35%) with 17% Prairie species. Differences in fish guild diversity and species richness may be due to numerous factors including sampling effort and sampling season. River samples were collected only in Study 3 in October; chute samples were collected in July, August, and October. Fish may have been using the chute in July and August to spawn, feed, or escape high river levels. The Lisbon Bottom Chute is a truly unique feature of the Lower Missouri River. It is the first naturally created side channel to develop since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers tamed the river. The Corps eliminated 89% of the islands in the Missouri River between 1879 and 1954 (Funk and Robinson 1974). The chutes between the islands and the shore were shallower with less current than the main channel. These areas provided diversity to the Missouri River fish habitat, serving as nursery and feeding areas. The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge will continue to be studied in an effort to understand the complex role these areas play in river systems.

Missouri↗

USGS2016

Benthic processes affecting contaminant transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Multiple sampling trips during calendar years 2013 through 2015 were coordinated to provide measurements of interdependent benthic processes that potentially affect contaminant transport in Upper Klamath Lake (UKL), Oregon. The measurements were motivated by recognition that such internal processes (for example, solute benthic flux, bioturbation and solute efflux by benthic invertebrates, and physical groundwater-surface water interactions) were not integrated into existing management models for UKL. Up until 2013, all of the benthic-flux studies generally had been limited spatially to a number of sites in the northern part of UKL and limited temporally to 2–3 samplings per year. All of the benthic invertebrate studies also had been limited to the northern part of the lake; however, intensive temporal (weekly) studies had previously been completed independent of benthic-flux studies. Therefore, knowledge of both the spatial and temporal variability in benthic flux and benthic invertebrate distributions for the entire lake was lacking. To address these limitations, we completed a lakewide spatial study during 2013 and a coordinated temporal study with weekly sampling of benthic flux and benthic invertebrates during 2014. Field design of the spatially focused study in 2013 involved 21 sites sampled three times as the summer cyanobacterial bloom developed (that is, May 23 , June 13 , and July 3, 2013). Results of the 27-week, temporally focused study of one site in 2014 were summarized and partitioned into three periods (referred to herein as pre-bloom, bloom and post-bloom periods), each period involving 9 weeks of profiler deployments, water column and benthic sampling. Partitioning of the pre-bloom, bloom, and post-bloom periods were based on water-column chlorophyll concentrations and involved the following date intervals, respectively: April 15 through June 10 , June 17 through August 13 , and August 20 through October 16, 2014. To examine dissolved-solute (0.2-micrometer [μm] filtered) benthic flux, sets of nonmetallic pore-water profilers (U.S. Patent 8,051,727 B1) were deployed. In 2013, the deployment of profilers at 21 UKL sites occurred at the beginning of the annual cyanobacterial bloom of Aphanizomenon flos–aquae (AFA), in the middle of the bloom period, and at the peak of the bloom. Coordinated benthic invertebrate collections also were made. Based on results from 2013, weekly deployments of profilers and collection of benthic invertebrate samples from late spring to early autumn were used to estimate temporal trends in solute flux and benthic invertebrate densities. Estimates of nutrient efflux by benthic invertebrates were determined in the spring and autumn from 2011 through 2013 and three times (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2015. This work extends UKL studies that began in 2006 to quantify the importance of benthic solute sources in the lake. In 2015, piezometers and thermistor sets were deployed to quantify potential groundwater exchange with the lake water column. Analysis of the 2013 soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) benthic flux indicated no effect of location (lake region), habitat, or sampling period, and the average lakewide flux values were consistent with earlier studies that had been confined to the northern region of UKL and adjacent wetlands. The 2014 study therefore focused on estimating temporal trends at a site within Ball Bay. During both 2013 and 2014 field studies, fluxes of macronutrients (soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonia) and micronutrients (iron [Fe] and manganese [Mn]) were consistently positive and increased prior to the initial AFA bloom, varied or lagged with water-column chlorophyll during the summer bloom period, then decreased after the cyanobacterial blooms, only to rebound toward pre-bloom conditions in the final weeks of sampling. These four solutes exhibited benthic loads greater than maximum riverine loads estimated during the spring and early summers of 2013 and 2014. However, consistently detectable concentrations for all four solutes provide no evidence that they consistently serve as the limiting nutrient for primary production in the lake. In contrast to the four solutes (SRP, ammonia, Fe, and Mn), benthic fluxes of dissolved arsenic (As) were both negative and positive (that is, the lakebed currently serves as both a source and a sink for dissolved As, depending on season). In a further contrast with SRP, ammonia, dissolved Fe, and Mn, dissolved-As riverine loads to UKL were of similar magnitude to benthic loads. A negative relationship between dissolved-As flux and water-column As over the 2014 temporal study provides a potential advantage for the management of water-quality in contrast to solutes, like SRP or ammonia, with consistently positive flux. The mean total benthic invertebrate density during 2013 was 12,610 individuals per square meter (n=63). Although benthic invertebrate density did not change over the study period, it was higher in littoral habitats than open-lake or trench habitats and higher in the northern region compared to the central or southern regions of UKL. Mean total benthic invertebrate density during 2014 was 19,726 individuals m −2 (n=27). Density during the pre-bloom and bloom periods of April 15 to August 13, 2014 (the first two thirds of the 2014 sampling period), were similar to 2013. However, benthic invertebrate density more than doubled during the latter one-third of the study, that is, the post-bloom period between August 20 to October 16, 2014. Oligochaeta, Chironomidae and Hirudinea represented well over 90 percent of the benthic fauna; Oligochaeta were twice as abundant as Chironomidae or Hirudinea, the latter two of which were similar in density. Benthic invertebrates may enhance dissolved-nutrient (or toxicant) transport across the sediment-water interface by (1) modifying diffusion-layer thicknesses and permeability through bioturbation, (2) enhancing advective flow across the interface through bioirrigation, and (3) excreting or expelling dissolved or particulate solutes directly into the overlying water column (Boudreau and Jorgensen, 2001). We evaluated SRP efflux via excretion for approximately 15 different major taxa in UKL. Once these measures were scaled, it was evident that benthic invertebrates potentially contribute approximately 1.5 times the amount of SRP to the water column of Upper Klamath Lake as diffusive SRP flux alone, measured in profiler deployments. Sets of piezometers and temperature loggers were deployed in UKL to obtain estimates of vertical advective solute flux. The pressure transducer installations, within the piezometers, did not perform as designed, rendering the head gradient data unreliable. However, in terms of future research, this field work did demonstrate the feasibility of collecting vertical gradient data with piezometer deployments. Advective flux estimates herein are based solely on heat-flow modeling based on temperature data from four lake sites, without use of transducer data. Given the magnitudes (both positive or negative) of the heat-transfer fluxes for SRP, relative to diffusive-flux and macroinvertebrate efflux measurements (all positive but spanning the same orders of magnitude), further examination of solute advective flux is recommended as a potential transport process to integrate into existing water-quality (for example, Total Maximum Daily Load [TMDL]) models. As a complement to the biogeochemical focus of this study, initial analyses of suspended-particle (floc) characteristics and settling velocities from the water column were derived near the surface and lakebed at two UKL sites. To better understand changing particle characteristics during the AFA-bloom period, suspended particles were examined in 2015 using a LabSFLOC (LF), which is a Laboratory Spectral Flocculation Characteristics version of an In-Situ Settling Velocity instrument (INSSEV-LF). Particle characteristics and settling velocities were analyzed from the water column near the surface (sample dp_10 ) and lakebed (sample dp_90 ) at two lake sites (open-lake site ML and littoral site LS01). The term “floc” refers herein to suspended particles that may aggregate or disaggregate to change in size, composition, and settling velocity. During pre-bloom (May) conditions, where maximum suspended particulate matter concentration (SPMC) was 140 milligrams per liter (mg L −1 ) was now observed at site LS01 in close proximity to the bed, where D mean peaked at 305 μm, and the corresponding Ws mean was 3.9 millimeters per second (mm s −1 ). The high near-bed SPMC (828 mg L −1 ) experienced during post-bloom October 2015 at LS01 formed a benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) above the lake’s bed. Numerous low density, fast settling macrofloc-sized organic aggregates (D >160 μm) were observed (some up to 1 mm in size) near bed at LS01 both during the bloom and post-bloom conditions; many of these flocs displayed fibrous organic structures. In terms of mass settling fluxes, the post-bloom BNL produced a total MSF of 4,139 milligrams per square meter per second (mg m −2 s −1 ) (92.1 percent of MSF credited to the macrofloc-sized organic aggregates/cyanobacterial colonies); that was nearly three times the corresponding near-bed settling flux observed during the July 2015 bloom and 360 times greater than the pre-bloom conditions from May 2015 (98.8 percent and 14 percent of MSF credited to the macrofloc-sized fractions for those respective months). Such changes in the near-bed settling flux demonstrate the highly significant seasonal effects that the AFA bloom has on the floc depositional fluxes in UKL and highlights the importance of seasonal monitoring of these conditions in order to correctly parameterize the wide range in depositional characteristics and floc properties measured throughout UKL. Collectively, floc populations observed within UKL demonstrated a wide range in settling velocity (Ws) for a given particle size, D. Similarly, a given settling velocity was not associated with a specific particle size. This variability in particle characteristics and properties indicates the influence of varying floc effective density and its effect on mass and mass settling fluxes (MSF). The use of instruments, such as the INSSEV-LF, enables measuring the variability of settling velocity and its relation to particle density and size.

Oregon↗

USGS2013

Water-quality conditions, and constituent loads and yields in the Cambridge drinking-water source area, Massachusetts, water years 2005–07

The source water area for the drinking-water supply of the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts, encompasses major transportation corridors, as well as large areas of light industrial, commercial, and residential land use. Because of ongoing development in the drinking-water source area, the Cambridge water supply has the potential to be affected by a wide variety of contaminants. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has monitored surface-water quality in the Hobbs Brook and Stony Brook Basins, which compose the drinking-water source area, since 1997 (water year 1997) through continuous monitoring and discrete sample collection and, since 2004, through systematic collection of streamwater samples during base-flow and stormflow conditions at five primary sampling stations in the drinking-water source area. Four primary sampling stations are on small tributaries in the Hobbs Brook and Stony Brook Basins; the fifth primary sampling station is on the main stem of Stony Brook and drains about 93 percent of the Cambridge drinking-water source area. Water samples also were collected at six secondary sampling stations, including Fresh Pond Reservoir, the final storage reservoir for the raw water supply. Storm runoff and base-flow concentrations of calcium (Ca), chloride (Cl), sodium (Na), and sulfate (SO 4 ) were estimated from continuous records of streamflow and specific conductance for six monitoring stations, which include the five primary sampling stations. These data were used to characterize current water-quality conditions, estimate loads and yields, and describe trends in Cl and Na in the tributaries and main-stem streams in the Hobbs Brook and Stony Brook Basins. These data also were used to describe how streamwater quality is affected by various watershed characteristics and provide information to guide future watershed management. Water samples were analyzed for physical properties and concentrations of Ca, Cl, Na, and SO 4 , total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), caffeine, and a suite of 59 polar pesticides. Values of physical properties and constituent concentrations varied widely, particularly in samples from tributaries. Median concentrations of Ca, Cl, Na, and SO4 in samples collected in the Hobbs Brook Basin (39.8, 392, 207, and 21.7 milligrams per liter (mg/L), respectively) were higher than those for the Stony Brook Basin (17.8, 87.7, 49.7, and 14.7 mg/L, respectively). These differences in major ion concentrations are likely related to the low percentages of developed land and impervious area in the Stony Brook Basin. Concentrations of dissolved Cl and Na in samples, and those estimated from continuous records of specific conductance (particularly during base flow), often were greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) secondary drinking-water guideline for Cl (250 mg/L), the chronic aquatic-life guideline for Cl (230 mg/L), and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs drinking-water guideline for Na (20 mg/L). Mean annual flow-weighted concentrations of Ca, Cl, and Na were generally positively correlated with the area of roadway land use in the subbasins. Correlations between mean annual concentrations of Ca and SO 4 in base flow and total roadway, total impervious, and commercial-industrial land uses were statistically significant. Concentrations of TN (range of 0.42 to 5.13 mg/L in all subbasins) and TP (range of 0.006 to 0.80 mg/L in all subbasins) in tributary samples did not differ substantially between the Hobbs Brook and Stony Brook Basins. Concentrations of TN and TP in samples collected during water years 2004–07 exceeded proposed reference concentrations of 0.57 and 0.024 mg/L, in 94 and 56 percent of the samples, respectively. Correlations between annual flow-weighted concentrations of TN and percentages of recreational land use and water-body area were statistically significant; however, no significant relation was found between TP and available land-use information. The volume of streamflow affected water-quality conditions at the primary sampling stations. Turbidity and concentrations of TP were positively correlated with streamflow. In contrast, concentrations of major ions were negatively correlated with streamflow, indicating that these constituents were diluted during stormflows. Concentrations of TN were not correlated with streamflow. Twenty-five pesticides and caffeine were detected in water samples collected in the drinking-water source area and in raw water collected from the Cambridge water-treatment facility intake at the Fresh Pond Reservoir. Imidacloprid, norflurazon, and siduron were the most frequently detected pesticides with the frequency of detections ranging from about 24 to 41 percent. Caffeine was detected in about 37 percent of water samples at concentrations ranging from 0.003 to 1.82 micrograms per liter (μg/L). Although some of the detected pesticides degrade rapidly, norflurazon and siduron are relatively stable and are able to immigrate though the serial reservoir system. Concentrations of 2,4-D, carbaryl, imazaquin, MCPA (2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid), metsulfuron-methyl, norflurazon, siduron, and caffeine were detected more frequently in stormflow samples than in base-flow samples. Concentrations of pesticides did not exceed USEPA drinking-water guidelines or other health standards and were several orders of magnitude less than the lethal exposure level established for several fish species common to the drinking-water source area. Imidacloprid, an insecticide, was the only pesticide with a concentration exceeding available long-term aquatic-life guidelines. Several pesticides correlated significantly with the amount of recreational, residential, and commercial area in the tributary subbasins. Mean annual base-flow concentrations of caffeine correlated significantly with parking-lot land use. For most tributaries, about 70 percent of the annual loads of Ca, Cl, Na, and SO 4 were associated with base flow. Upward temporal trends in annual loads of Cl and Na were identified on the basis of data for water years 1998 to 2008 for the outlet of the Cambridge Reservoir in the Hobbs Brook Basin; however, similar trends were not identified for the main stem of Stony Brook downstream from the reservoir. The proportions of the TN load attributed to base flow and stormflow were similar in each tributary. In contrast, more than 83 percent of the TP loads in the tributaries and about 73 percent of the TP load in main stem of Stony Brook were associated with stormflow. Mean annual yields of Ca, Cl, Na, and SO 4 in the Stony Brook Reservoir watershed, which represents most of the drinking-water source area, were 14, 85, 46, and 9 metric tons per square kilometer, respectively. Mean annual yields among the individual tributary subbasins varied extensively. Mean annual yields for the respective constituents increased with an increase in roadway and parking-lot area in the tributary subbasins. Mean annual yields of TN in the tributary subbasins ranged from about 740 to more than 1,200 kilograms per square kilometer and exceeded the yield for the main stem of Stony Brook at USGS station 01104460 upstream from the Stony Brook Reservoir. Mean annual yields estimated for the herbicides 2,4-D and imidacloprid ranged from 34 to 310 grams per square kilometer (g/km 2 ) and 3 to 170 g/km 2 , respectively. Annual loads for 2,4-D were entirely associated with stormflow. The largest annual load for imidacloprid was estimated for the main stem of Stony Brook; however, the highest annual yield for this pesticide, as well as for benomyl, carbaryl, metalaxyl, and propiconazole, was estimated for a tributary to the Stony Brook Reservoir that drains largely residential and recreational areas. Mean annual yields for the herbicide siduron ranged from 6.9 to 35 g/km 2 with most of the loads associated with stormflow. Mean annual yields for the insecticide diuron ranged from 2.1 to 4.4 g/km 2 . Annual yields of caffeine ranged from 11 to 410 g/km 2 .

Massachusetts↗

USGS1969

Recent surface movements in the Baldwin Hills, Los Angeles County, California

The Baldwin Hills are located in the northwest part of the densely populated Los Angeles basin. They comprise one of several groups of isolated hills that extend along the northwest-trending Newport-Inglewood zone of folds and faults, a structural lineament identified with a series of very productive oil fields. In addition to being the site of the Inglewood oil field, these hills are the site of surface deformation that has been monitored for over 35 years. This record of deformation, which includes differential subsidence, horizontal displacements, and surface rupturing, forms one of the best documented examples of oilfield-associated surface deformation yet recognized. The deformation is described in detail, analyzed as to cause(s), and finally attributed largely or essentially entirely to the exploitation of the spatially-associated Inglewood oil field. The Baldwin Hills are underlain by gently to moderately arched and conspicuously faulted Cenozoic sedimentary and volcanic rocks that overlie crystalline basement rocks at a depth of more than 10,000 feet. The Inglewood fault, a part of the northwest-trending Newport-Inglewood zone, diagonally transects the hills. Right-lateral displacements of 3,000-4,000 feet since middle or late Pliocene time and 1,500-2,000 feet during Quaternary time are indicated by offset structural and physio-graphic features; indications of vertical separations of up to about 200 feet during late Quaternary time occur locally. Evidence of continuing deformation includes recognized seismicity and regional elevation changes. The M5-5 1/2 Inglewood earthquake of 1920, the largest local earthquake of record, is believed to have originated immediately southeast of the Baldwin Hills; it was apparently unassociated with surficial fault displacements. Leveling in and around the west and central Los Angeles basin has shown that lowland stations have been consistently subsiding, whereas foothill stations commonly have been rising. Several seemingly persistent basins of differential subsidence and a zone of positive movement, roughly coincident with the Newport-Inglewood zone, have also been identified in the northwest part of the basin. A prominent, elliptically-shaped, northwest-trending subsidence bowl encompassing the northwest part of the Baldwin Hills, has been defined by repeated level circuits. Partial reconstruction of selected level circuits with respect to a common, relatively stable control point (Hollywood E-11), located on the edge of the subsidence bowl, has permitted evaluation of the subsidence since 1910 and 1911 at two points near the center of the bowl. Thus bench mark PBM 67 is estimated to have subsided approximately 4.324 feet between June 1910 and February 1963; and bench mark PBM 68 (the only bench mark within the subsidence bowl that was leveled prior to 1926 and has been repeatedly leveled since) subsided 3.846 feet between November 1911 and June 1962. Analysis of the available data indicates little if any elevation change at PBM 68 (or elsewhere throughout the Baldwin Hills-Inglewood area) associated with the Inglewood earthquake of 1920. Maximum subsidence of PBM 122 (which has remained very close to the center of subsidence since at . least 1950) between 1911 and 1963 is calculated to have been 5.67 feet. Horizontal displacements (with respect to a north-south base line about 3 miles east of the hills) of six triangulation points within the subsidence bowl have been measured for various periods between 1934 and 1963. Displacements have been generally toward the center of subsidence and almost precisely perpendicular to the immediately adjacent isobases of equal elevation change. Maximum movement has been recorded at triangulation point Baldwin Aux, which was displaced 2.21 feet between 1934 and 1961; horizontal displacements of three additional points ranged from 0.95 foot to 1.85 feet between 1936 and 1961. Displacements of 0.10-0.29 foot were recorded at all six monuments during the period 1961-1963. "Earth cracks" and surficial fault displacements were recognized in the Baldwin Hills at least as early as 1957. The cracks are relatively straight, generally continuous fractures confined to the structural block east of the Inglewood fault; they are concentrated in two areas centering on (1) the Baldwin Hills Reservoir and (2) the Stocker Street-LaBrea Avenue-Overhill Drive intersection. The cracks trend north to north-northeast and are nearly everywhere parallel to or coincident with minor faults and joints, and are generally orthogonal to radii emanating from the center of subsidence. Differential movement along the cracks has been almost entirely dip slip along steep to nearly vertical surfaces, and generally down-dropped toward the center of subsidence. Cumulative displacements have been as much as 6 or 7 inches. Rates of displacement have ranged widely, and the movement has generally occurred as creep or very small discrete jumps. A probable exception is the several inches of differential movement that is believed to have occurred along a crack through the floor of the Baldwin Hills Reservoir on or about December 14, 1963. The contemporary surface movements are attributable to one or more of the following phenomena: (1). exploitation of the Inglewood oil field; (2) changes in the ground-water regimen; (3) compaction of sedimentary materials in response to surface loading; (4) tectonic activity. The following considerations indicate that the differential subsidence is attributable largely or entirely to exploitation of the underlying Inglewood oil field: (1) the coincidence of the centers of the oil field, the producing structure, and the subsidence bowl; (2) the general correspondence between the pattern of subsidence and the outlines of the oil field; (3) the approximate coincidence between the initiation of production and the initiation of subsidence; (4) the generally linear relations between various measures of subsidence and liquid production from both the field as a whole and the exceptionally prolific Vickers zone in particular; (5) the sharp deceleration of subsidence in the eastern block of the field coincident with the initiation of full-scale water flooding there; (6) the many examples of oil fields In which both spatial and temporal associations between production and subsidence are recognized; (7) the many similarities of the subsidence-production relations in the Inglewood field to those in the Wilmington field, where the subsidence has been authoritatively attributed to oilfield operations; (8) the theoretical relation between subsidence or a tendency toward subsidence and increased effective pressure associated with underground fluid extraction. Consideration of six possible explanations for the increasing rather than decreasing or constant rate of subsidence with respect to reservoir fluid pressure decline suggests that measured or calculated down-hole reservoir fluid pressure decline is non-representative of average or real fluid pressure decline away from producing wells. The near-linear relations between net-liquid production and subsidence are explained through analogy with a tightly confined artesian system of infinite areal extent, where production must derive from liquid expansion and/or reservoir compaction. Test data from compaction studies in two other oil fields yield estimates of ultimate compaction of the Vickers zone resulting from a total loss of fluid pressure; these estimates range over an order of magnitude. The best estimate, based on these data and considerations of late Cenozoic history in the Baldwin Hills area, is about 10 feet. The centripetally-directed horizontal movements are considered attributable to exploitation of the Inglewood oil field on the basis of: (1) their well-defined symmetrical and geometrical association with the differential subsidence; (2) the similarities between these associations and those developed in and around other subsiding oil fields; and (3) the mechanical compatibility of these movements with subsidence induced by the extraction of subsurface materials. The earth cracks and surficial fault displacements are considered largely or entirely attributable to the exploitation of the Inglewood oil field on the basis of: (1) their spatial and temporal relations to both oil-field operations and the differential subsidence; (2) the similarities of these cracks and displacements to those generated in and around other oil fields and areas of subsurface materials extraction; and (3) surface strain patterns predicted from the measured vertical and horizontal surface movements. The cracks and displacements can i)e explained by an exploitation-based, elastic-rebound model which requires elastic compression of the sedimentary section in response to compaction-induced downdrag within those blocks around the periphery of the subsidence bowl. The measured displacements have been about one-quarter to one-half those predicted for a purely elastic system. Analysis of: (1) the history of ground-water extraction within and around the Baldwin Hills; and (2) subsidence associated with water-level declines in sediments comparable with those in the Baldwin Hills, indicate that the surface movements can be no more than incidentally attributed to changes in ground-water conditions. Similarly, analysis of the history of natural and artificial changes in surface loading indicate that these movements are generally unassociated with changes in surface loading conditions. Considerations of local geologic history and various tectonic associations indicate that it is very unlikely that the differential subsidence and horizontal movements are due to tectonic downwarping. There exists a far stronger prima facie argument for tectonic involvement in the earth cracking and associated fault displacements. This argument is disputed by; (1) the spatial and temporal relations of the earth cracks to, and their mechanical compatibility with, the nontectonic differential subsidence; (2) the absence of displacements on the Inglewood fault in conjunction with those along the conjugate earth cracks; (3) the probability that purely tectonic displaceMents would be characterized by oblique or strike slip; and (4) the absence of any clear temporal relation between crack growth and local seismicity, However, because as much as 10 percent of the local isobase gradient may be unexplained' by oil-field exploitation, a small fraction of this gradient, and thus the displacements among the southern group of cracks, may be attributable to tectonic activity. This fraction should have been insignificant in the presence of the strain pattern produced by nontectonic compaction of the underlying oil measures. Because nearly all of the observed and measured surface movements can be fully explained as the products of oil-field operations, yet can be no more than incidentally attributed to changes in ground-water conditions, surface loading, or tectonic activity, we conclude that these movements are attributable largely or essentially entirely to the exploitation of the Inglewood oil field.

California↗