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USGS2023

Stream restoration milestones: Monitoring scales determine successes and failures

Urban stream restoration is growing globally, but there is much to learn from successes, failures, and evaluating tradeoffs in restoration practices. Significant time and resources have been invested towards restoring the structure and function of urban ecosystems and understanding and slowing the drivers of degradation. However, the rapid pace of urbanization and its effects on urban waters present an ever-growing challenge to environmental managers and restoration practitioners when identifying and prioritizing effective strategies for restoration and monitoring outcomes. Here, we synthesize major findings and papers originating from the 5th Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology (SUSE5) and propose a new concept for monitoring restoration based on lessons learned. Efforts from SUSE5 showed that urban disturbances and restoration activities have strong localized impacts that can be challenging to detect and disentangle across broader watershed scales and longitudinal flowpaths. Most urban stream restoration projects are monitored at only one or a few locations that do not capture significant variability across stream reaches and longer flowpaths. Based on knowledge from SUSE5, we present a new concept called ‘restoration milestones.’ The restoration milestones concept proposes that the scale of stream monitoring over space and time can influence whether a stream restoration project is considered a success or failure. Therefore, answers to questions regarding restoration effectiveness and durability can be affected by spatial and temporal monitoring scales. Setting realistic restoration milestones involves establishing monitoring strategies that account for spatial and temporal variability. Tracking restoration performance through time across stream reaches along longitudinal flowpaths could aid in more accurately assessing project performance. We explore applications for evaluating restoration milestones along longitudinal stream flowpaths including: (1) identifying target areas of improvement along drainage networks, (2) accurately accounting for tradeoffs in habitat, protection of infrastructure, and water quality along flowpaths, and (3) detecting how far downstream the effects of stream restoration and stormwater management can be propagated. Monitoring across different spatial and temporal scales is an overlooked but critical factor in determining restoration success. Additionally, the scale of the restoration project itself can determine the type and magnitude of improvements. Expectations for what a restoration project can accomplish in terms of water quality improvements should be calibrated to the project’s spatial scale and evolution over time. Longitudinal studies of stream restoration help identify successes and failures along flowpaths.

Urban Ecosystems↗
USGS2006

Shorebird roost-site selection at two temporal scales: Is human disturbance a factor?

1. Roost-site selection in shorebirds is governed by ambient factors, including environmental conditions and human disturbance. Determination of the extent to which these factors affect roost use and the associated implications for shorebird habitat protection is important for conservation strategies and informed management of human recreational use of these habitats. Shorebird conservation as a whole is a high priority world-wide because a large proportion of shorebird species is in decline. However, little is understood about the consistency of roost use by different species, what conditions affect species-specific roost-site selection, and at what spatial and temporal scales conditions influence selection. 2. We studied high-tide roost-site selection by eight species of non-breeding shorebirds on a critically important stopover and wintering refuge. We calculated spatial and temporal variability in roost use for each species based on counts and consistency of incidence. We then examined roost-site selection in relation to structural, environmental and human disturbance factors, and how this varied across spatial and temporal scales. 3. Most roosts were used less than 50% of the time, although larger roosts were used more consistently. This varied among species, with red knot Calidris canutus tending to concentrate at a few roosts and American oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus, dowitcher Limnodromus griseus and Limnodromus scolopaceus and ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres more diffusely distributed among roosts. 4. At an annual scale, the principal factors affecting shorebird presence at roosts were roost length (size), local region, substrate and aspect. The extent and direction of these effects varied among species. Among years, red knots avoided roosts that had high average boat activity within 1000 m, but disturbance did not appear to be a factor for other species. 5. Daily roost use was influenced primarily by wind speed and the ability of roosts to provide shelter from the wind. Only dowitchers appeared to track daily disturbance, avoiding prospective roosts when boat activity within 100 m was high. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our findings emphasize the need to consider species-specific differences in temporal- and spatial-scale effects of roost-site selection factors, including human disturbance, when employing conservation measures for shorebirds. We suggest that conservation management should aim to provide a wide range of potential roosts (both natural and artificial) that could be used under different wind conditions and that are within reasonable travelling distance of preferred feeding areas. Roost use is often highly variable, and monitoring efforts must take this into account before making inferences about changes in use or selection of roost sites. ?? 2006 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2022

The role of satellite telemetry data in 21st century conservation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Satellite telemetry (ST) has played a critical role in the management and conservation of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) over the last 50 years. ST data provide biological information relevant to subpopulation delineation, movements, habitat use, maternal denning, health, human-bear interactions, and accurate estimates of vital rates and abundance. Given that polar bears are distributed at low densities over vast and remote habitats, much of the information provided by ST data cannot be collected by other means. Obtaining ST data for polar bears requires chemical immobilization and application of a tracking device. Although immobilization has not been found to have negative effects beyond a several-day reduction in activity, over the last few decades opposition to immobilization and deployment of satellite-linked radio collars has resulted in a lack of current ST data in many of the 19 recognized polar bear subpopulations. Here, we review the uses of ST data for polar bears and evaluate its role in addressing 21 st century conservation and management challenges, which include estimation of sustainable harvest rates, understanding the impacts of climate warming, delineating critical habitat, and assessing potential anthropogenic impacts from tourism, resource development and extraction. We found that in subpopulations where ST data have been consistently collected, information was available to estimate vital rates and subpopulation density, document the effects of sea-ice loss, and inform management related to subsistence harvest and regulatory requirements. In contrast, a lack of ST data in some subpopulations resulted in increased bias and uncertainty in ecological and demographic parameters, which has a range of negative consequences. As sea-ice loss due to climate warming continues, there is a greater need to monitor polar bear distribution, habitat use, abundance, and subpopulation connectivity. We conclude that continued collection of ST data will be critically important for polar bear management and conservation in the 21 st century and that the benefits of immobilizing small numbers of individual polar bears in order to deploy ST devices significantly outweigh the risks.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2020

Coerced regimes: Management challenges in the Anthropocene

Management frequently creates system conditions that poorly mimic the conditions of a desirable self-organizing regime. Such management is ubiquitous across complex systems of people and nature and will likely intensify as these systems face rapid change. However, it is highly uncertain whether the costs (unintended consequences, including negative side effects) of management but also social dynamics can eventually outweigh benefits in the long term. We introduce the term “coerced regime” to conceptualize this management form and tie it into resilience theory. The concept encompasses proactive and reactive management to maintain desirable and mitigate undesirable regime conditions, respectively. A coerced regime can be quantified through a measure of the amount of management required to artificially maintain its desirable conditions. Coerced regimes comprise “ghosts” of self-sustaining desirable system regimes but ultimately become “dead regimes walking” when these regimes collapse as soon as management is discontinued. We demonstrate the broad application of coerced regimes using distinct complex systems of humans and nature (human subjects, aquatic and terrestrial environments, agriculture, and global climate). We discuss commonalities and differences between these examples to identify trade-offs between benefits and harms of management. The concept of coerced regimes can spur thinking and inform management about the duality of what we know and can envision versus what we do not know and therefore cannot envision: a pervasive sustainability conundrum as planet Earth swiftly moves toward a future without historical analogue

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2022

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2020

Co-producing knowledge: The Integrated Ecosystem Model for resource management in Arctic Alaska

Assessments of climate-change effects on ecosystem processes and services in high-latitude regions are hindered by a lack of decision-support tools capable of forecasting possible future landscapes. We describe a collaborative effort to develop and apply the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and northwestern Canada to explore how climate change influences interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost integrity, hydrology, and vegetation, and how these dynamics in turn influence resource management decisions. This process emphasizes co-production of knowledge among decision makers, scientists, major funders, partners, and stakeholders. We highlight research findings based on IEM applications in Arctic Alaska, as well as successes and challenges of the co-production process. The overall framework and lessons from our work with the IEM are relevant to other collaborative efforts outside the Arctic that aim to develop a decision-support tool or an undertaking of equivalent scope.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Optimal sampling design for spatial capture‐recapture

Spatial capture‐recapture (SCR) has emerged as the industry standard for estimating population density by leveraging information from spatial locations of repeat encounters of individuals. The precision of density estimates depends fundamentally on the number and spatial configuration of traps. Despite this knowledge, existing sampling design recommendations are heuristic and their performance remains untested for most practical applications. To address this issue, we propose a genetic algorithm that minimizes any sensible, criteria‐based objective function to produce near‐optimal sampling designs. To motivate the idea of optimality, we compare the performance of designs optimized using three model‐based criteria related to the probability of capture. We use simulation to show that these designs out‐perform those based on existing recommendations in terms of bias, precision, and accuracy in the estimation of population size. Our approach, available as a function in the R package oSCR, allows conservation practitioners and researchers to generate customized and improved sampling designs for wildlife monitoring.

Ecology↗
USGS2025

Edge effects along roadside fuel treatments in sagebrush steppe

Increasing wildfire has motivated the construction of fuel breaks on many rangelands to improve prospects for wildfire suppression. However, the linear shape of fuel breaks greatly increases treatment perimeter: area and thus increased potential for edge effects, e.g., invasions by exotic plants. Potential for edge effects are further increased by the disturbances associated with fuel-break implementation. Fire risk in perennial-dominated and sagebrush-steppe rangelands are increased by exotic species, such as cheatgrass and other associated annuals, and therefore invasions after fuel-break implementation are problematic, yet have rarely been evaluated. Abundances of dominant invaders, cheatgrass and Russian thistle, were measured along treated and neighboring untreated edges in 40 paired plots along ∼61 km of 60-m wide fuel breaks. Fuel breaks were constructed using a variety of shrub-cutting and herbicide applications 1–4 yr before measurement. Generalized linear mixed effect models revealed that fractional cover significantly increased in treated compared with untreated areas by 0.02–0.12 for cheatgrass and 0–0.06 for Russian thistle within 9 m of treatment boundaries (on a scale of 0-1). We neither detected increased invasion in adjacent and untreated areas nor gradients of increasing invasion with proximity to treatment boundaries. Although these findings reveal invasions that were otherwise undetected across the entire 60 m width of fuel breaks, invasion levels did not surpass nominal management thresholds for fire behavior or risk of conversion to annual grasslands.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2016

Climate adaption and post-fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather

1.The loss of foundational but fire-intolerant perennials such as sagebrush due to increases in fire size and frequency in semiarid regions has motivated efforts to restore them, often with mixed or even no success. Seeds of sagebrush Artemisia tridentata and related species must be moved considerable distances from seed source to planting sites, but such transfers have not been guided by an understanding of local climate adaptation. Initial seedling establishment and its response to weather are a key demographic bottleneck that likely varies among subspecies and populations of sagebrush. 2.We assessed differences in survival, growth, and physiological responses of sagebrush to weather among eleven seed sources that varied in subspecies, cytotype, and climates-of-origin over 18 months following outplanting. Diploid or polyploid populations of mountain, Wyoming, and basin big sagebrush ( A.tridentata ssp. vaseyana, A.tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, and A.tridentata ssp. tridentata , respectively) were planted onto five burned sites that normally support A.t.wyomingensis with some A.t.tridentata . 3.A.t.wyomingensis had the most growth and survival, and tetraploid populations had greater survival and height than diploids. Seasonal timing of mortality varied among the subspecies/cytotypes and was more closely related to minimum temperatures than water deficit. 4.Temperatures required to induce ice formation were up to 6°C more negative in 4n- A.t.tridentata and A.t.wyomingensis than other subspecies/cytotypes, indicating greater freezing avoidance. In contrast, freezing resistance of photosynthesis varied only 1°C among subspecies/cytotypes, being greatest in A.t.wyomingensis and least in the subspecies normally considered most cold-adapted, A.t.vaseyana . A large spectrum of reliance on freezing-avoidance vs. freezing-tolerance was observed and corresponded to differences in post-fire survivorship among subspecies/cytotypes. Differences in water deficit responses among subspecies/cytotypes were not as strong and did not relate to survival patterns. 5. Synthesis and applications. Low temperature responses are a key axis defining climate adaptation in young sagebrush seedlings and vary more with cytotype than with subspecies, which contrasts with the traditional emphases on (i) water limitations to explain establishment in these deserts, and (ii) subspecies in selecting restoration seedings. These important and novel insights on climate adaptation are critical for seed selection and parameterizing seed transfer zones, and were made possible by incorporating weather data with survival statistics. The survival/weather statistics used here could be applied to any restoration planting or seeding to help elucidate factors contributing to success and enable adaptive management.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2008

Desert bird associations with broad-scale boundary length: Applications in avian conservation

1. Current understanding regarding the effects of boundaries on bird communities has originated largely from studies of forest-non-forest boundaries in mesic systems. To assess whether broad-scale boundary length can affect bird community structure in deserts, and to identify patterns and predictors of species' associations useful in avian conservation, we studied relations between birds and boundary-length variables in Chihuahuan Desert landscapes. Operationally, a boundary was the border between two adjoining land covers, and broad-scale boundary length was the total length of such borders in a large area. 2. Within 2-km radius areas, we measured six boundary-length variables. We analysed bird-boundary relations for 26 species, tested for assemblage-level patterns in species' associations with boundary-length variables, and assessed whether body size, dispersal ability and cowbird-host status were correlates of these associations. 3. The abundances or occurrences of a significant majority of species were associated with boundary-length variables, and similar numbers of species were related positively and negatively to boundary-length variables. 4. Disproportionately small numbers of species were correlated with total boundary length, land-cover boundary length and shrubland-grassland boundary length (variables responsible for large proportions of boundary length). Disproportionately large numbers of species were correlated with roadside boundary length and riparian vegetation-grassland boundary length (variables responsible for small proportions of boundary length). Roadside boundary length was associated (positively and negatively) with the most species. 5. Species' associations with boundary-length variables were not correlated with body size, dispersal ability or cowbird-host status. 6. Synthesis and applications. For the species we studied, conservationists can use the regressions we report as working models to anticipate influences of boundary-length changes on bird abundance and occurrence, and to assess avifaunal composition for areas under consideration for protection. Boundary-length variables associated with a disproportionate or large number of species can be used as foci for landscape management. Assessing the underlying causes of bird-boundary relations may improve the prediction accuracy of associated models. We therefore advocate local- and broad-scale manipulative experiments involving the boundary types with which species were correlated, as indicated by the regressions. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2009

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications . The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2009

Sources, sinks, and spatial ecology of cotton mice in longleaf pine stands undergoing restoration

The Fire and Fire Surrogate studya replicated, manipulative experimentsought the most economically and ecologically efficient way to restore the nation's fire-maintained ecosystems. As part of this study, we conducted a 3-year markrecapture study, comprising 105,000 trap-nights, to assess demographic responses of cotton mice (Peromyscus gossypinus) to Fire and Fire Surrogate treatments at the Gulf Coastal Plain site, where longleaf pine was the ecosystem to be restored. We compared competing models to evaluate restoration effects on variation in apparent survival and recruitment over time, space, and treatment, and incorporated measures of available source habitat for cotton mice with reverse-time modeling to infer immigration from outside the study area. The top-ranked survival model contained only variation over time, but the closely ranked 2nd and 3rd models included variation over space and treatment, respectively. The top 4 recruitment models all included effects for availability of source habitat and treatments. Burning appeared to degrade habitat quality for cotton mice, showing demographic characteristics of a sink, but treatments combining fire with thinning of trees or application of herbicide to the understory appeared to improve habitat quality, possibly creating sources. Bottomland hardwoods outside the study also acted as sources by providing immigrants to experimental units. Models suggested that population dynamics operated over multiple spatial scales. Treatments applied to 15-ha stands probably only caused local variation in vital rates within the larger population. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS1998

Geospatial Technology Applications and Infrastructure in the Biological Resources Division

Executive Summary -- Automated spatial processing technology such as geographic information systems (GIS), telemetry, and satellite-based remote sensing are some of the more recent developments in the long history of geographic inquiry. For millennia, humankind has endeavored to map the Earth's surface and identify spatial relationships. But the precision with which we can locate geographic features has increased exponentially with satellite positioning systems. Remote sensing, GIS, thematic mapping, telemetry, and satellite positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) are tools that greatly enhance the quality and rapidity of analysis of biological resources. These technologies allow researchers, planners, and managers to more quickly and accurately determine appropriate strategies and actions. Researchers and managers can view information from new and varying perspectives using GIS and remote sensing, and GPS receivers allow the researcher or manager to identify the exact location of interest. These geospatial technologies support the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Resources Division (BRD) and the Strategic Science Plan (BRD 1996) by providing a cost-effective and efficient method for collection, analysis, and display of information. The BRD mission is 'to work with others to provide the scientific understanding and technologies needed to support the sound management and conservation of our Nation's biological resources.' A major responsibility of the BRD is to develop and employ advanced technologies needed to synthesize, analyze, and disseminate biological and ecological information. As the Strategic Science Plan (BRD 1996) states, 'fulfilling this mission depends on effectively balancing the immediate need for information to guide management of biological resources with the need for technical assistance and long-range, strategic information to understand and predict emerging patterns and trends in ecological systems.' Information sharing plays a key role in nearly everything BRD does. The Strategic Science Plan discusses the need to (1) develop tools and standards for information transfer, (2) disseminate information, and (3) facilitate effective use of information. This effort centers around the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) and the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI), components of the National Information Infrastructure. The NBII and NSDI are distributed electronic networks of biological and geographical data and information, as well as tools to help users around the world easily find and retrieve the biological and geographical data and information they need. The BRD is responsible for developing scientifically and statistically reliable methods and protocols to assess the status and trends of the Nation's biological resources. Scientists also conduct important inventory and monitoring studies to maintain baseline information on these same resources. Research on those species for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has trust responsibilities (including endangered species and migratory species) involves laboratory and field studies of individual animals and the environments in which they live. Researchboth tactical and strategicis conducted at the BRD's 17 science centers and 81 field stations, 54 Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units in 40 states, and at 11 former Cooperative Park Study Units. Studies encompass fish, birds, mammals, and plants, as well as their ecosystems and the surrounding landscape. Biological Resources Division researchers use a variety of scientific tools in their endeavors to understand the causes of biological and ecological trends. Research results are used by managers to predict environmental changes and to help them take appropriate measures to manage resources effectively. The BRD Geospatial Technology Program facilitates the collection, analysis, and dissemination of data and informat

Information and Technology Report↗
USGS2022

Accounting for residual heterogeneity in double-observer sightability models decreases bias in burro abundance estimates

Feral burros ( Equus asinus ) and horses ( E. ferus caballus ) inhabiting public land in the western United States are intended to be managed at population levels established to promote a thriving, natural ecological balance. Double-observer sightability (M DS ) models, which use detection records from multiple observers and sighting covariates, perform well for estimating feral horse abundances, but their effectiveness for use in burro populations is less understood. These M DS models help minimize detection bias, yet bias can be further reduced with models that account for unmodeled variation, or residual heterogeneity, in detection probability. In populations containing radio-marked individuals, residual heterogeneity can be estimated with M DS models by including a covariate that corresponds to the marked status of a group (M H models). Another approach is to use information from detections missed by both observers to account for the characteristics that make groups more or less likely to be detected, or recaptured, by the second observer (M R models). We used aerial survey data from 3 burro populations (Sinbad Herd Management Area, UT [2016–2018], Lake Pleasant Herd Management Area, AZ [2017], and Fort Irwin National Training Center, CA [2016–2017]) to develop M DS models applicable for feral burros in the southwestern United States. Our objectives were to quantify precision and bias of standard M DS surveys for feral burros and to examine which model type for incorporating residual heterogeneity (M H or M R ) would result in the least-biased estimates of burro populations relative to the minimum number known alive (MNKA) within the Sinbad Herd Management Area. Standard M DS model estimates achieved a mean coefficient of variation of 0.08, while underestimating MNKA by an average of 27.1%. Accounting for residual heterogeneity through recapture probability in M R models resulted in estimates closer to MNKA than M H models (9.5% vs. 16.5% less than MNKA). Our results indicate that M DS models can achieve precise enough estimates to monitor feral burro populations, but they routinely produce negatively biased estimates. We encourage the use of radio-collars to reduce bias in future burro surveys by accounting for residual heterogeneity through M R models.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2024

How low is too low? Partnering with stakeholders and managers to define ecologically based low-flow thresholds in a perennial temperate river

Managing aquatic ecosystems for people and nature can be improved by collaboration among scientists, managers, decision-makers, and other stakeholders. Many collaborative and interdisciplinary approaches have been developed to address the management of freshwater ecosystems; however, there are still barriers to overcome. We worked as part of a regional stakeholder group comprising municipal water utility operators, conservation organizations, academic partners, and other stakeholders to understand the effects of low-flow and drought on ecological functions of the upper Flint River, Georgia (USA), a free-flowing river important for municipal water supply, recreation, and native biota. We used published literature and locally targeted studies to identify quantitative flow targets that could be used to inform water management and drought planning. Drawing from principles of Translational Ecology, we relied on an iterative process to develop information needs for the group and maintained communication and engagement throughout data collection, analysis, and synthesis. We identified three quantitative flow benchmarks to evaluate the ecological impacts of drought in the river. The results were valuable to both the water utilities represented in the working group and State regional water planning, which is used to guide water management strategies and permitting for the basin. We identified principles that were important for the successful engagement in the working group and helped to overcome the challenge of working across sectors and without direct authority guiding the implementation of our work. Interdisciplinary work and creative solutions are crucial to plan for and adapt to greater pressure on our water resources.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2019

Balancing sampling intensity against spatial coverage for a community science monitoring programme

Community science is an increasingly integral part of biodiversity research and monitoring, often achieving broad spatial and temporal coverage but lower sampling intensity than studies conducted by professional scientists. When designing a community‐science monitoring programme, careful assessment of sampling designs that could be both feasible and successful at meeting programme goals is essential. Monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus ) are the focus of several successful community‐science projects in the U.S., but broader coverage is needed to monitor breeding areas and explain population declines observed in overwintering areas. The U.S. Monarch Conservation Science Partnership's Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program (IMMP) will representatively monitor monarchs and milkweed across North America. We performed a simulation‐based power analysis to predict trade‐offs between sampling breadth (number of sites and years) and sampling intensity (number of visits or subplots per site and year) for the IMMP. We evaluated whether each sampling design would produce sufficient statistical power to detect population trends and differences among land‐use sectors in densities of milkweed, monarch eggs, and adult monarchs. Sampling breadth had much stronger effects than sampling intensity on statistical power for all three monitoring targets. Depending on land‐use sector, monitoring 400–800 sites over 10–15 years would detect trends in densities of milkweed and adult monarchs, but no scenarios were successful for monarch eggs. Sampling 400–800 sites would also detect small (for adult monarchs) to large (for milkweed) differences among land‐use sectors in density of all three monitoring targets within the first 2–5 years. As more data become available from the IMMP, the sampling goals can be updated. Synthesis and applications . Careful sample design is an essential step in developing a successful monitoring programme. For monarchs and milkweed, we found that sampling breadth (number of sites and years) had a much stronger effect on statistical power than sampling intensity (number of visits or subsamples per site), suggesting field protocols could be tailored to maximize recruitment and retention of volunteers by minimizing the effort required to monitor each site. Many long‐term monitoring programmes might similarly benefit from evaluating the statistical trade‐offs between sampling breadth and intensity in their sampling designs.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2021

Human activities and weather drive contact rates of wintering elk

Wildlife aggregation patterns can influence disease transmission. However, limited research evaluates the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on aggregation. Many managers would like to reduce wildlife contact rates, driven by aggregation, to limit disease transmission. We develop a novel analytical framework to quantify how management activities such as supplemental feeding and hunting versus weather drive contact rates while accounting for correlated contacts. We apply the framework to the National Elk Refuge (NER), Wyoming, USA, where the probable arrival of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has magnified concerns. We used a daily proximity index to measure contact rates among 68 global positioning system collared elk from 2016 to 2019. We modelled contact rates as a function of abiotic weather‐related effects, anthropogenic effects and aggregation from the prior day. The winter of 2017–2018 had greater natural forage availability and little snow, which led to a rare non‐feeding year on the NER and provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of feeding on contact rates relative to other conditions. Supplemental feeding was the strongest predictor of aggregation, and contact rates were 2.6 times larger while feeding occurred compared to the baseline rate (0.34 and 0.13, respectively). Snow‐covered area was the second strongest predictor of contact rates highlighting the importance of abiotic factors to elk aggregation, but this effect had half the strength of feeding. These results are the first to show, even in animals that congregate naturally, how greatly supplemental feeding amplifies aggregation. Contact rates were also 23% lower during times when elk hunting was active (0.10) compared to the baseline. Synthesis and applications . Supplemental feeding increased contacts between elk well above the natural effects of weather, even after accounting for correlated movement expected in wintering ungulates. Similarly, differences in hunting season timing with adjacent areas led to an increase in contacts, suggesting an additional management option for reducing aggregation. The analytical framework presented supports the evaluation of temporally varying management actions that influence aggregation broadly and can be easily implemented whether the interest in changing aggregation is related to reduction of disease transmission, human–wildlife conflict or inter‐species competition.

Wyoming↗
USGS2020

msocc: Fit and analyse computationally efficient multi‐scale occupancy models in R

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is a promising tool for the detection of rare and cryptic taxa, such as aquatic pathogens, parasites and invasive species. Environmental DNA sampling workflows commonly rely on multi‐stage hierarchical sampling designs that induce complicated dependencies within the data. This complex dependence structure can be intuitively modelled with Bayesian multi‐scale occupancy models. However, current software for such models are computationally demanding, impeding their use. We present an r package, msocc , that implements a data augmentation strategy to fit fully Bayesian, computationally efficient multi‐scale occupancy models. The msocc package allows users to fit multi‐scale occupancy models, to estimate and visualize posterior summaries of site, sample and replicate‐level occupancy, and to compare different models using Bayesian information criterion. Additionally, we provide a supplemental web application that allows users to investigate study design for multi‐scale occupancy models and acts as a graphical user interface to the msocc package. The utility of the msocc package is illustrated on a published dataset and the functions in msocc are compared to the primary Bayesian toolkit for multi‐scale occupancy modelling, eDNAoccupancy , using various computational benchmarks. These benchmarks indicate that msocc is capable of fitting models 50 times faster than eDNAoccupancy . We hope that access to software that efficiently fits, analyses and conducts study design investigations for multi‐scale occupancy models facilitates their implementation by the research and wildlife management communities.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗