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At least 1,729 records · Page 96Linked to original sources

Monitoring network changes during the 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption

In the summer of 2018, Kīlauea Volcano underwent one of its most significant eruptions in the past few hundred years. The volcano’s summit and East Rift Zone magma system partially drained, resulting in a series of occasionally explosive partial caldera collapses, and widespread lava flows in the lower East Rift Zone. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) operates a robust permanent monitoring network of about 250 stations, recording a variety of real‐time data streams: seismic (short‐period, broadband, strong‐motion), infrasound, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), tilt, camera, laser rangefinder, and gas geochemistry. During the eruption, HVO staff quickly established 35 new temporary monitoring stations, to better constrain evolving volcanic hazards. The partial collapses of the caldera threatened to disrupt important telemetry links in the HVO monitoring network, and a major effort was undertaken in the midst of the eruption crisis to reroute radio telemetry and maintain continuity of data flow. In the process, a new data center was established in Hilo, to mitigate a long‐standing potential single point of failure at the HVO facility. Over the course of the eruption from May through August, lava, ashfall, wildfire, and cliff collapse destroyed or disabled 36 stations. Thousands of earthquakes damaged the main HVO facility at Uēkahuna Bluff, causing staff to evacuate the building and relocate observatory operations in the midst of the eruption response, adding more complexity to the response effort. Throughout these events, the HVO team maintained the monitoring network, provided timely information to the public and emergency managers, and collected valuable scientific data to better understand Kīlauea Volcano.

Hawaii↗

Seismic techniques and suggested instrumentation to monitor volcanoes

Introduction Changes in the pressure or location of magma can stress or break surrounding rocks and trigger flow of nearby waters and gases, causing seismic signals, such as discrete earthquakes and tremor. These phenomena are types of seismic unrest that commonly precede eruption and can be used to forecast volcanic activity. Mass movements at the surface, including avalanches, debris flows, and lahars, may also generate seismic signals that are specifically addressed in chapter H , this volume (Thelen and others, 2024). Our focus in this chapter is to determine the levels of instrumentation recommended to produce high-quality, well-constrained seismic observations important for early warning of impending eruptions, detecting changes in ongoing eruptions, and characterizing other hazardous volcanic events. There are emerging techniques and new types of instrumentation, such as distributed acoustic sensing or rotational seismometers, that we do not consider here. These types of instrumentation show promise for monitoring but still require maturation before being considered more generally in volcano monitoring. Most of the capabilities mentioned below are universal for all types of volcanic systems, although some are best applied to stratovolcanoes with an apical single vent. In some settings, such as calderas or shield volcanoes, we must broaden coverage to include multiple possible storage regions or vent locations. As an example, Thelen (2014) discretized the long rift zones of shield volcanoes in Hawaiʻi as a set of evenly spaced “vents.” In this construct, each vent comes with recommendations, and several thousand network configurations were simulated to assess the effect on network quality levels and to determine the most efficient network design. The same process could be applied in a caldera setting or a volcanic field, where an evenly spaced grid of potential vents is considered. Localized recommendations for each unique system are beyond the scope of this report and left up to local experts to assess based on the conditions, restrictions, and requirements of each volcano.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Tsunami impact to Washington and northern Oregon from segment ruptures on the southern Cascadia subduction zone

This paper explores the size and arrival of tsunamis in Oregon and Washington from the most likely partial ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in order to determine (1) how quickly tsunami height declines away from sources, (2) evacuation time before significant inundation, and (3) extent of felt shaking that would trigger evacuation. According to interpretations of offshore turbidite deposits, the most frequent partial ruptures are of the southern CSZ. Combined recurrence of ruptures extending ~490 km from Cape Mendocino, California, to Waldport, Oregon (segment C) and ~320 km from Cape Mendocino to Cape Blanco, Oregon (segment D), is ~530 years. This recurrence is similar to frequency of full-margin ruptures on the CSZ inferred from paleoseismic data and to frequency of the largest distant tsunami sources threatening Washington and Oregon, ~M w 9.2 earthquakes from the Gulf of Alaska. Simulated segment C and D ruptures produce relatively low-amplitude tsunamis north of source areas, even for extreme (20 m) peak slip on segment C. More than ~70 km north of segments C and D, the first tsunami arrival at the 10-m water depth has an amplitude of <1.9 m. The largest waves are trapped edge waves with amplitude ≤4.2 m that arrive ≥2 h after the earthquake. MM V–VI shaking could trigger evacuation of educated populaces as far north as Newport, Oregon for segment D events and Grays Harbor, Washington for segment C events. The NOAA and local warning systems will be the only warning at greater distances from sources.

Oregon;Washington↗

Tsunami exposure estimation with land-cover data: Oregon and the Cascadia subduction zone

A Cascadia subduction-zone earthquake has the potential to generate tsunami waves which would impact more than 1000 km of coastline on the west coast of the United States and Canada. Although the predictable extent of tsunami inundation is similar for low-lying land throughout the region, human use of tsunami-prone land varies, creating variations in community exposure and potential impacts. To better understand such variations, land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery (e.g., 30-m-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery) was coupled with tsunami-hazard information to describe tsunami-prone land along the Oregon coast. Land-cover data suggest that 95% of the tsunami-prone land in Oregon is undeveloped and is primarily wetlands and unconsolidated shores. Based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients (r s ), correlative relationships are strong and statistically significant (p < 0.05) between city-level estimates of the amount of land-cover pixels classified as developed (impervious cover greater than 20%) and the amount of various societal assets, including residential and employee populations, homes, businesses, and tax-parcel values. Community exposure to tsunami hazards, described here by the amount and relative percentage of developed land in tsunami-prone areas, varies considerably among the 26 communities of the study area, and these variations relate to city size. Correlative relationships are strong and significant (p < 0.05) for community exposure rankings based on land-cover data and those based on aggregated socioeconomic data. In the absence of socioeconomic data or community-based knowledge, the integration of hazards information and land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery to estimate community exposure may be a useful first step in understanding variations in community vulnerability to regional hazards.

Applied Geography↗

Seismic amplification within the Seattle Basin, Washington State: Insights from SHIPS seismic tomography experiments

Recent observations indicate that the Seattle sedimentary basin, underlying Seattle and other urban centers in the Puget Lowland, Washington, amplifies long-period (1-5 sec) weak ground motions by factors of 10 or more. We computed east-trending P- and S-wave velocity models across the Seattle basin from Seismic Hazard Investigations of Puget Sound (SHIPS) experiments to better characterize the seismic hazard the basin poses. The 3D tomographic models, which resolve features to a depth of 10 km, for the first time define the P- and S-wave velocity structure of the eastern end of the basin. The basin, which contains sedimentary rocks of Eocene to Holocene, is broadly symmetric in east-west section and reaches a maximum thickness of 6 km along our profile beneath north Seattle. A comparison of our velocity model with coincident amplification curves for weak ground motions produced by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake suggests that the distribution of Quaternary deposits and reduced velocity gradients in the upper part of the basement east of Seattle have significance in forecasting variations in seismic-wave amplification across the basin. Specifically, eastward increases in the amplification of 0.2- to 5-Hz energy correlate with locally thicker unconsolidated deposits and a change from Crescent Formation basement to pre-Tertiary Cascadia basement. These models define the extent of the Seattle basin, the Seattle fault, and the geometry of the basement contact, giving insight into the tectonic evolution of the Seattle basin and its influence on ground shaking.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Hazards, Disasters, and The National Map

Governments depend on base geographic information that describes the Earth's surface and locates features. They use this information for economic and community development, land and natural resource management, delivery of health services, and ensuring public safety. It is also the foundation for studying and solving geographically based problems. Geographic information underpins an increasingly large part of the Nation's economy. It is an important part of our national infrastructure in the same way that the Interstate Highway System is an essential element of our transportation network. Federal, State, and local response and management personnel must have current, reliable, and easily accessible geographic information and maps to prepare for, respond to, or recover from emergency situations. In life-threatening events, such as earthquakes, floods, or wildland fires, geographic information is essential for locating critical infrastructure and carrying out evacuation and rescue operations.

Fact Sheet↗

High-resolution lidar topography of the Puget Lowland, Washington - A bonanza for earth science

More than 10,000 km2 of high-resolution, public-domain topography acquired by the Puget Sound Lidar Consortium is revolutionizing investigations of active faulting, continental glaciation, landslides, and surficial processes in the seismically active Puget Lowland. The Lowland-the population and economic center of the Pacific Northwest-presents special problems for hazards investigations, with its young glacial topography, dense forest cover, and urbanization. Lidar mapping during leaf-off conditions has led to a detailed digital model of the landscape beneath the forest canopy. The surface thus revealed contains a rich and diverse record of previously unknown surface-rupturing faults, deep-seated landslides, uplifted Holocene and Pleistocene beaches, and subglacial and periglacial features. More than half a dozen suspected postglacial fault scarps have been identified to date. Five scarps that have been trenched show evidence of large, Holocene, surface-rupturing earthquakes.

GSA Today↗

LiDAR-Assisted identification of an active fault near Truckee, California

We use high-resolution (1.5-2.4 points/m2) bare-earth airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) imagery to identify, map, constrain, and visualize fault-related geomorphology in densely vegetated terrain surrounding Martis Creek Dam near Truckee, California. Bare-earth LiDAR imagery reveals a previously unrecognized and apparently youthful right-lateral strike-slip fault that exhibits laterally continuous tectonic geomorphic features over a 35-km-long zone. If these interpretations are correct, the fault, herein named the Polaris fault, may represent a significant seismic hazard to the greater Truckee-Lake Tahoe and Reno-Carson City regions. Three-dimensional modeling of an offset late Quaternary terrace riser indicates a minimum tectonic slip rate of 0.4 ?? 0.1 mm/yr.Mapped fault patterns are fairly typical of regional patterns elsewhere in the northern Walker Lane and are in strong coherence with moderate magnitude historical seismicity of the immediate area, as well as the current regional stress regime. Based on a range of surface-rupture lengths and depths to the base of the seismogenic zone, we estimate a maximum earthquake magnitude (M) for the Polaris fault to be between 6.4 and 6.9.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about their mean value and do not reflect the broader distribution of possible rates and associated probabilities. Here, we consider both a double‐truncated 2σ Gaussian and a boxcar distribution of slip rates and use a Monte Carlo simulation to sample the entire range of the distribution for California fault‐slip rates. We compute the seismic hazard following the methodology and logic‐tree branch weights applied to the 2014 national seismic hazard model (NSHM) for the western U.S. region (Petersen et al., 2014, 2015). By applying a new approach developed in this study to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using precomputed rates of exceedance from each fault as a Green’s function, we reduce the computer time by about 10^5‐fold and apply it to the mean PSHA estimates with 1000 Monte Carlo samples of fault‐slip rates to compare with results calculated using only the mean or preferred slip rates. The difference in the mean probabilistic peak ground motion corresponding to a 2% in 50‐yr probability of exceedance is less than 1% on average over all of California for both the Gaussian and boxcar probability distributions for slip‐rate uncertainty but reaches about 18% in areas near faults compared with that calculated using the mean or preferred slip rates. The average uncertainties in 1σ peak ground‐motion level are 5.5% and 7.3% of the mean with the relative maximum uncertainties of 53% and 63% for the Gaussian and boxcar probability density function (PDF), respectively.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). In addition to the work performed by the authors on public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR tsunami scenario, this section of the scenario also reflects the policy discussions of the State of California’s Tsunami Policy Work Group, a voluntary advisory body formed in October 2011, which operates under the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), Department of Conservation, and is charged with identifying, evaluating, and making recommendations to resolve issues that are preventing full and effective implementation of tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction throughout California’s coastal communities. It also presents the analyses of plans and hazard policies of California’s coastal counties, incorporated cities, and major ports performed by the staff of the California Geological Survey (CGS) and Lauren Prehoda, Office of Environmental and Government Affairs, California Department of Conservation. It also draws on the policy framework and assessment prepared for the ARkStorm Pacific Coast winter storm and catastrophic flooding (Topping and others, 2010).

Open-File Report↗

California's potential volcanic hazards

This is a summary of "Potential Hazards from Future Volcanic Eruptions in California' (USGS Bulletin No. 1847: price $4.75). The chief areas of danger are Lassen Peak, Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake Highland in the north; Clear Lake, Mono Lake and Long Valley in the centre; and Owen's River-Death Valley, Amboy Crater and the Saltan Butter in the south of the State. -A.Scarth

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗

Hazards of geomagnetic storms

Geomagnetic storms are large and sometimes rapid fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field that are related to disturbances on the Sun's surface. Although it is not widely recognized, these transient magnetic disturbances can be a significant hazard to people and property. Many of us know that the intensity of the auroral lights increases during magnetic storms, but few people realize that these storms can also cause massive power outages, interrupt radio communications and satellite operations, increase corrosion in oil and gas pipelines, and lead to spuriously high rejection rates in the manufacture of sensitive electronic equipment.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗

Paleoseismologic evidence for large-magnitude (M w 7.5-8.0) earthquakes on the Ventura blind thrust fault: Implications for multifault ruptures in the Transverse Ranges of southern California

Detailed analysis of continuously cored boreholes and cone penetrometer tests (CPTs), high-resolution seismic-reflection data, and luminescence and 14 C dates from Holocene strata folded above the tip of the Ventura blind thrust fault constrain the ages and displacements of the two (or more) most recent earthquakes. These two earthquakes, which are identified by a prominent surface fold scarp and a stratigraphic sequence that thickens across an older buried fold scarp, occurred before the 235-yr-long historic era and after 805 ± 75 yr ago (most recent folding event[s]) and between 4065 and 4665 yr ago (previous folding event[s]). Minimum uplift in these two scarp-forming events was ∼6 m for the most recent earthquake(s) and ∼5.2 m for the previous event(s). Large uplifts such as these typically occur in large-magnitude earthquakes in the range of M w 7.5–8.0. Any such events along the Ventura fault would likely involve rupture of other Transverse Ranges faults to the east and west and/or rupture downward onto the deep, low-angle décollements that underlie these faults. The proximity of this large reverse-fault system to major population centers, including the greater Los Angeles region, and the potential for tsunami generation during ruptures extending offshore along the western parts of the system highlight the importance of understanding the complex behavior of these faults for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.

California↗

Effect of time dependence on probabilistic seismic-hazard maps and deaggregation for the central Apennines, Italy

We produce probabilistic seismic-hazard assessments for the central Apennines, Italy, using time-dependent models that are characterized using a Brownian passage time recurrence model. Using aperiodicity parameters, ?? of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7, we examine the sensitivity of the probabilistic ground motion and its deaggregation to these parameters. For the seismic source model we incorporate both smoothed historical seismicity over the area and geological information on faults. We use the maximum magnitude model for the fault sources together with a uniform probability of rupture along the fault (floating fault model) to model fictitious faults to account for earthquakes that cannot be correlated with known geologic structural segmentation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Structure of the Blytheville arch in the New Madrid seismic zone

Seismic-reflection profiles across part of the New Madrid seismic zone in northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri show a faulted and structurally complex zone, originally known as Charlie’s ridge but herein renamed Blytheville arch, which is about 10 to 15 km wide and about 110 km long. Several exploratory drill holes in the arch penetrate Upper and possibly Middle Cambrian formations directly below Cretaceous rocks, whereas drill holes off the arch penetrate the Cambrian and Ordovician Knox and Arbuckle Groups equivalents and possibly younger Paleozoic rocks below the Cretaceous; therefore, the pre-Cretaceous rocks in the arch are structurally high. Most earthquakes in the northeast-trending segment of the New Madrid seismic zone along the axis of the Reelfoot rift occur along the arch. Focal mechanisms of earthquakes in the trend show right-lateral, strike-slip movement. Epicenters in the northeastern part of the seismic trend between Caruthersville, MO, and Blytheville, AR, are spatially less dispersed than those to the southwest between Blytheville and Marked Tree, AR. Most of the hypocenters to the northeast cluster between 6 to 12 km deep, whereas those to the southwest range from near the surface to about 15 km deep. Earthquakes in the northeast part of the seismic trend are concentrated along a fault zone under the arch, whereas those to the southwest are more dispersed under the arch. A seismic trend that extends south-southwest from near Charleston, MO, projects to the northwest side of the ridge near Blytheville, where the seismicity changes character and the southeast boundary of the arch trends more easterly. The relationship between the structural boundaries of the arch and the seismicity may establish the extent of part of New Madrid seismicity and improve the basis for seismic hazard assessment.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee↗

Earthquake catalog for the Fairbanks region of central Alaska, 2014–2024, based on waveform cross-correlation

The Fairbanks region of central Alaska is part of a broad zone of intraplate crustal deformation, situated north of the Denali fault and north of the ongoing collision and flat‐slab subduction of the Yakutat oceanic plateau. Seismicity in the Fairbanks region occurs both in diffuse areas as well as in well‐defined lineaments, such as the left‐lateral Salcha fault, which hosted the 1937 M 8 7.3 earthquake. Starting with the regional seismicity catalog, we perform waveform cross‐correlation, network‐matched filtering, and relative relocation to obtain an enhanced seismicity catalog over the time period 2014–2024. Based on the relocated catalog, we interpret a set of 15 fault segments, including two conjugate faults and two new faults east of the previously documented fault system. Considering the combined seismicity in the Minto and Fairbanks regions, the median depth of seismicity decreases from east (6 km) to west (20 km). Our interpreted faults provide guidance for future tectonic modeling and assessment of seismic hazards in this region.

Alaska↗

Tilt networks of Mount Shasta and Lassen Peak, California

In response to recent eruptions at Mount St. Helens and with support from the USGS Volcanic Hazards Program, the Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO) has initiated a program to monitor all potentially-active volcanoes of the Cascade Range. As part of that effort, we installed tilt networks and obtained baseline measurements at Mount Shasta and Lassen Peak, California during July 1981. At the same time, baseline electronic distance measurements (EDM) were made and fumarole surveys were conducted by other crews from CVO. Annual surveys are planned initially, with subsequent visits as conditions warrant. These geodetic and geochemical measurements supplement a program of continuous seismic monitoring of Cascade volcanoes by the USGS Office of Earthquake Studies in cooperation with local universities. Other tilt networks were established at Mount Baker in 1975 and at Mount St. Helens in 1981. EDM networks were established at Mount Baker in 1975, Mount St. Helens in 1980, and Crater Lake in 1981. Additional tilt and/or EDM networks are planned for Mount Rainier, Mount Hood, Glacier Peak, Three Sisters, and Crater Lake as funds permit.

Open-File Report↗

A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis

This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard. Ground motions were selected from millions of available time series and were reviewed to confirm their suitability for response-history analysis. The processes used to select the time series, the characteristics of the resulting data, and the provided documentation are described in this article. The resulting data and documentation are available electronically.

California↗