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Judging a brook by its cover: The relation between ecological condition of a stream and urban land cover in new England

The US Geological Survey conducted an urban land-use study in the New England Coastal Basins (NECB) area during 2001 to determine how urbanization relates to changes in the ecological condition of streams. Thirty sites were selected that differed in their level of watershed development (low to high). An urban intensity value was calculated for each site from 24 landscape variables. Together, these 30 values reppresented a gradient of urban intensity. Among various biological, chemical, and physical factors surveyed at each site, benthic invertebrate assemblages were sampled from stream riffles and also from multiple habitats along the length of the sampling reach. We use some of the NECB data to derive a four-variable urbanintensity index (NECB-UII), where each variable represents a distinct component of urbanization: increasing human presence, expanding infrastructure, landscape development, and riparian vegetation loss. Using the NECB-UII as a characterization of urbanization, we describe how landscape fragmentation occurs with urbanization and how changes in the invertebrate assemblages, represented by metrics of ecological condition, are related to urbanization. Metrics with a strong linear response included EPT taxa richness, percentage richness of non-insect taxa, and pollution-tolerance values. Additionally, we describe how these relations can help in estimating the expected condition of a stream for its level of urbanization, thereby establishing a baseline for evaluating possible affects from specific point-source stressors.

Northeastern Naturalist↗

Comparison of radio-telemetric home range analysis and acoustic detection for Little Brown Bat habitat evaluation

With dramatic declines of bat populations due to mortality caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans (White-nose Syndrome), assessing habitat preferences of bats in the northeastern US is now critical to guide the development of regional conservation efforts. In the summer of 2012, we conducted fixed-station simultaneous telemetry to determine nocturnal spatial use and fixed-kernel home-range estimates of available habitat of a Myotis lucifugus (Le Conte) (Little Brown Bat) maternity colony in an artificial bat house. In summers of 2011 and 2012, we also deployed a 52-ha grid of 4 × 4 Anabat acoustic detectors over five 6–8-day sampling periods in various riparian and non-riparian environments in close proximity to the same bat house. The mean telemetry home range of 143 ha for bats ( n = 7) completely overlapped the acoustic grid. Rankings of habitats from telemetry data for these 7 bats and 5 additional bats not included in home-range calculations but added for habitat-use measures ( n = 13) revealed a higher proportional use of forested riparian habitats than other types at the landscape scale. Pair-wise comparisons of habitats indicated that bats were found significantly closer to forested riparian habitats and forests than to open water, developed areas, fields, shrublands, or wetland habitats at the landscape scale. Acoustic sampling showed that naïve occupancy was 0.8 and 0.6 and mean nightly detection probabilities were 0.23 and 0.08 at riparian and non-riparian sites, respectively. Our findings suggest that Little Brown Bats select forested riparian and forested habitats for foraging at the landscape scale but may be most easily detected acoustically at riparian sites when a simple occupancy determination for an area is required.

Northeastern Naturalist↗

Evaluation of threatened, endangered, and rare fish species and communities of the St. Lawrence River and its tributaries in the United States

Biodiversity is responsible for important ecological processes like productivity and ecosystem stability, and rare species are a major component of biodiversity. Rarity increases a species' vulnerability to disturbances and also makes them difficult to study. Globally, species of freshwater systems are some of the most threatened, and evaluation of rare freshwater species and their habitats is needed to help preserve natural flexibility and ecological function. We conducted an analysis of full fish communities of the upper St. Lawrence River and its major US tributaries, with the goals of determining species locations and abundances, associated environmental conditions, the distribution of distinct fish assemblages across the landscape (with emphasis on communities supporting rare species), and potential threats. From 2009 to 2015, the US Geological Survey (USGS) and Saint Regis Mohawk Tribe (SRMT) worked together using standardized methods to collect community samples within 4 different aquatic realms (shallow and deep lentic, and small and large lotic systems) and determine species-specific fish abundances, frequencies of occurrence, and associated habitat signatures and spatial distributions. Distinct fish assemblages and associated habitat conditions were objectively identified by multivariate and hypothesis-testing methods. We used a geographic information system (GIS) to spatially associate habitat, biotic, and landscape attributes within each stream reach throughout the study area, facilitating quantification of distribution patterns. Comparisons with historical data provided estimates of loss or gain of threatened and endangered species (T&E) colonies. We developed a disturbance index to highlight potential threats to aquatic species. More than 140,000 fishes of 87 species were collected from a total of 1140 sample sites, covering 278 stream reaches, including the endangered Notropis anogenus (Pugnose Shiner), and threatened Hiodon tergisus (Mooneye), Etheostoma pellucidum (Eastern Sand Darter), and Acipenser fulvescens (Lake Sturgeon). We identified 50 distinct fish assemblages differing in species composition, abundance, and/or diversity, but only 13 of those assemblages included a T&E species. The rareness, extent, and patchiness of fish assemblages created a mosaic of fish communities across the landscape, from headwaters to the mainstem of the St. Lawrence River. Comparisons with historic surveys (1978–2008) showed a stable number of T&E species colonies or an increase for some species. The geographic distribution of multimetric disturbance index values showed where combinations of disturbances to fish habitats might affect rare fish species and aquatic communities in the region. The species–habitat associations and fish assemblage distributions can be used for evaluation of species, communities, or habitats that may need protection or restoration.

St. Lawrence River study area↗

Assessment of bird response to the Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative using weather-surveillance radar

In response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in spring 2010, the Natural Resources Conservation Service implemented the Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative (MBHI) to provide temporary wetland habitat for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other birds along the northern Gulf of Mexico via managed flooding of agricultural lands. We used weather-surveillance radar to conduct broad regional assessments of bird response to MBHI activities within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and the West Gulf Coastal Plain. Across both regions, birds responded positively to MBHI management by exhibiting greater relative bird densities within sites relative to pre-management conditions in prior years and relative to surrounding non-flooded agricultural lands. Bird density at MBHI sites was generally greatest during winter for both regions. Unusually high flooding in the years prior to implementation of the MBHI confounded detection of overall changes in remotely sensed soil wetness across sites. The magnitude of bird response at MBHI sites compared to prior years and to non-flooded agricultural lands was generally related to the surrounding landscape context: proximity to areas of high bird density, amount of forested wetlands, emergent marsh, non-flooded agriculture, or permanent open water. However, these relationships varied in strength and direction between regions and seasons, a finding which we attribute to differences in seasonal bird composition and broad regional differences in landscape configuration and composition. We detected greater increases in relative bird use at sites in closer proximity to areas of high bird density during winter in both regions. Additionally, bird density was greater during winter at sites with more emergent marsh in the surrounding landscape. Thus, bird use of managed wetlands could be maximized by enrolling lands located near areas of known bird concentration and within a mosaic of existing wetlands. Weather-radar observations provide strong evidence that MBHI sites located inland from coastal wetlands impacted by the oil spill provided wetland habitat used by a variety of birds.

Gulf Of Mexico;Mississippi Alluvial Valley;West Gu↗

Using aquatic invertebrates to delineate seasonal and temporary wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Tillage can destroy or greatly disturb indicators of hydric soils and hydrophytic vegetation, making delineation of tilled wetlands difficult. The remains of aquatic invertebrates (e.g., shells, drought-resistant eggs, and trichopteran cases) are easily identifiable and persist in wetland substrates even when wetlands are dry. Additionally, these remains are not easily destroyed by mechanical tillage. To test the feasibility of using invertebrate remains to delineate wetlands, we used two methods to identify the wetland edge of ten seasonal and ten temporary wetlands, evenly divided between grassland and cropland landscapes. First, we identified the wetland edge using hydric soil and vegetation indicators along six evenly spaced transects in each wetland (our “standard” delineation). We then identified the wetland edge along the same transects using aquatic invertebrate remains as our indicator. In grassland landscapes, delineations of the wetland edge made using invertebrate remains were consistently at the same location or closer to the wetland center as the standard delineations for both seasonal and temporary wetlands. In cropland landscapes, however, many of our invertebrate delineations of seasonal and temporary wetlands were on the upland side of our standard delineations. We attribute the differences to movement of remains during tillage, increased maximum pool levels in cropland wetlands, and disturbance of hydric soils and plants. We found that the elevations of the wetland edge indicated by invertebrate remains were more consistent within a wetland than elevations determined by standard delineations. Aquatic invertebrate remains can be useful in delineating wetlands when other indicators have been destroyed or severely disturbed by tillage.

Wetlands↗

Urban habitat fragmentation and genetic population structure of bobcats in coastal southern California

Although habitat fragmentation is recognized as a primary threat to biodiversity, the effects of urban development on genetic population structure vary among species and landscapes and are not yet well understood. Here we use non-invasive genetic sampling to compare the effects of fragmentation by major roads and urban development on levels of dispersal, genetic diversity, and relatedness between paired bobcat populations in replicate landscapes in coastal southern California. We hypothesized that bobcat populations in sites surrounded by urbanization would experience reduced functional connectivity relative to less isolated nearby populations. Our results show that, bobcat genetic population structure is affected by roads and development but not always as predicted by the degree that these landscape features surround fragments. Instead, we suggest that urban development may affect functional connectivity between bobcat populations more by limiting the number and genetic diversity of source populations of migrants than by creating impermeable barriers to dispersal.

Orange↗

Born of fire: In search of volcanoes in U.S. national parks, four striking examples

Geologic features, particularly volcanic features, have been protected by the National Park Service since its inception. Some volcanic areas were nationally protected even before the National Park Service was established. The first national park, Yellowstone National Park, is one of the most widely known geothermal and volcanic areas in the world. It contains the largest volcanic complex in North America and has experienced three eruptions which rate among the largest eruptions known to have occurred on Earth. Half of the twelve areas established as national parks before the 1916 Organic Act which created the National Park Service are centered on volcanic features. The National Park Service now manages lands that contain nearly every conceivable volcanic resource, with at least seventy-six managed lands that contain volcanoes or volcanic rocks. Given that so many lands managed by the National Park Service contain volcanoes and volcanic rocks, we cannot give an overview of the history of each one; rather we highlight four notable examples of parks that were established on account of their volcanic landscapes. These parks all helped to encourage the creation and success of the National Park Service by inspiring the imagination of the public. In addition to preserving and providing access to the nation's volcanic heritage, volcanic national parks are magnificent places to study and understand volcanoes and volcanic landscapes in general. Scientists from around the world study volcanic hazards, volcanic history, and the inner working of the Earth within U.S. national parks. Volcanic landscapes and associated biomes that have been relatively unchanged by human and economic activities provide unique natural laboratories for understanding how volcanoes work, how we might predict eruptions and hazards, and how these volcanoes affect surrounding watersheds, flora, fauna, atmosphere, and populated areas.

Earth Sciences History↗

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: Habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USDA conservation program and practice effects on wetland ecosystem services in the Prairie Pothole Region

Implementation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) has resulted in the restoration of >2 million ha of wetland and grassland habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Restoration of habitats through these programs provides diverse ecosystem services to society, but few investigators have evaluated the environmental benefits achieved by these programs. We describe changes in wetland processes, functions, and ecosystem services that occur when wetlands and adjacent uplands on agricultural lands are restored through Farm Bill conservation programs. At the scale of wetland catchments, projects have had positive impacts on water storage, reduction in sedimentation and nutrient loading, plant biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat. However, lack of information on the geographic location of restored catchments relative to landscape‐level factors (e.g., watershed, proximity to rivers and lakes) limits interpretation of ecosystem services that operate at multiple scales such as floodwater retention, water quality improvement, and wildlife habitat suitability. Considerable opportunity exists for the USDA to incorporate important landscape factors to better target conservation practices and programs to optimize diverse ecosystem services. Restoration of hydrologic processes within wetlands (e.g., hydroperiod, water level dynamics) also requires a better understanding of the influence of conservation cover composition and structure, and management practices that occur in uplands surrounding wetlands. Although conservation programs have enhanced delivery of ecosystem services in the PPR, the use of programs to provide long‐term critical ecosystem services is uncertain because when contracts (especially CRP) expire, economic incentives may favor conversion of land to crop production, rather than reenrollment. As demands for agricultural products (food, fiber, biofuel) increase, Farm Bill conservation programs will become increasingly important to ensure provisioning of ecosystem services to society, especially in agriculturally dominated landscapes. Thus, continued development and support for conservation programs legislated through the Farm Bill will require a more comprehensive understanding of wetland ecological services to better evaluate program achievements relative to conservation goals.

Ecological Applications↗

Directional connectivity in hydrology and ecology

Quantifying hydrologic and ecological connectivity has contributed to understanding transport and dispersal processes and assessing ecosystem degradation or restoration potential. However, there has been little synthesis across disciplines. The growing field of ecohydrology and recent recognition that loss of hydrologic connectivity is leading to a global decline in biodiversity underscore the need for a unified connectivity concept. One outstanding need is a way to quantify directional connectivity that is consistent, robust to variations in sampling, and transferable across scales or environmental settings. Understanding connectivity in a particular direction (e.g., streamwise, along or across gradient, between sources and sinks, along cardinal directions) provides critical information for predicting contaminant transport, planning conservation corridor design, and understanding how landscapes or hydroscapes respond to directional forces like wind or water flow. Here we synthesize progress on quantifying connectivity and develop a new strategy for evaluating directional connectivity that benefits from use of graph theory in ecology and percolation theory in hydrology. The directional connectivity index (DCI) is a graph-theory based, multiscale metric that is generalizable to a range of different structural and functional connectivity applications. It exhibits minimal sensitivity to image rotation or resolution within a given range and responds intuitively to progressive, unidirectional change. Further, it is linearly related to the integral connectivity scale length—a metric common in hydrology that correlates well with actual fluxes—but is less computationally challenging and more readily comparable across different landscapes. Connectivity-orientation curves (i.e., directional connectivity computed over a range of headings) provide a quantitative, information-dense representation of environmental structure that can be used for comparison or detection of subtle differences in the physical-biological feedbacks driving pattern formation. Case-study application of the DCI to the Everglades in south Florida revealed that loss of directional hydrologic connectivity occurs more rapidly and is a more sensitive indicator of declining ecosystem function than other metrics (e.g., habitat area) used previously. Here and elsewhere, directional connectivity can provide insight into landscape drivers and processes, act as an early-warning indicator of environmental degradation, and serve as a planning tool or performance measure for conservation and restoration efforts.

Ecological Applications↗

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Ecological Applications↗

Quantifying restoration effectiveness using multi-scale habitat models: implications for sage-grouse in the Great Basin

A recurrent challenge in the conservation of wide-ranging, imperiled species is understanding which habitats to protect and whether we are capable of restoring degraded landscapes. For Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern in the western United States, we approached this problem by developing multi-scale empirical models of occupancy in 211 randomly located plots within a 40 million ha portion of the species' range. We then used these models to predict sage-grouse habitat quality at 826 plots associated with 101 post-wildfire seeding projects implemented from 1990 to 2003. We also compared conditions at restoration sites to published habitat guidelines. Sage-grouse occupancy was positively related to plot- and landscape-level dwarf sagebrush (Artemisia arbuscula, A. nova, A. tripartita) and big sagebrush steppe prevalence, and negatively associated with non-native plants and human development. The predicted probability of sage-grouse occupancy at treated plots was low on average (0.09) and not substantially different from burned areas that had not been treated. Restoration sites with quality habitat tended to occur at higher elevation locations with low annual temperatures, high spring precipitation, and high plant diversity. Of 313 plots seeded after fire, none met all sagebrush guidelines for breeding habitats, but approximately 50% met understory guidelines, particularly for perennial grasses. This pattern was similar for summer habitat. Less than 2% of treated plots met winter habitat guidelines. Restoration actions did not increase the probability of burned areas meeting most guideline criteria. The probability of meeting guidelines was influenced by a latitudinal gradient, climate, and topography. Our results suggest that sage-grouse are relatively unlikely to use many burned areas within 20 years of fire, regardless of treatment. Understory habitat conditions are more likely to be adequate than overstory conditions, but in most climates, establishing forbs and reducing cheatgrass dominance is unlikely. Reestablishing sagebrush cover will require more than 20 years using past restoration methods. Given current fire frequencies and restoration capabilities, protection of landscapes containing a mix of dwarf sagebrush and big sagebrush steppe, minimal human development, and low non-native plant cover may provide the best opportunity for conservation of sage-grouse habitats.

Ecosphere↗

Predicting foundation bunchgrass species abundances: Model-assisted decision-making in protected-area sagebrush steppe

Foundation species are structurally dominant members of ecological communities that can stabilize ecological processes and influence resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Being common, they are often overlooked for conservation but are increasingly threatened from land use change, biological invasions, and over-exploitation. The pattern of foundation species abundances over space and time may be used to guide decision-making, particularly in protected areas for which they are iconic. We used ordinal logistic regression to identify the important environmental influences on the abundance patterns of bluebunch wheatgrass ( Pseudoroegneria spicata ), Thurber's needlegrass ( Achnatherum thurberianum ), and Sandberg bluegrass ( Poa secunda ) in protected-area sagebrush steppe. We then predicted bunchgrass abundances along gradients of topography, disturbance, and invasive annual grass abundance. We used model predictions to prioritize the landscape for implementation of a management and restoration decision-support tool. Models were fit to categorical estimates of grass cover obtained from an extensive ground-based monitoring dataset. We found that remnant stands of abundant wheatgrass and bluegrass were associated with steep north-facing slopes in higher and more remote portions of the landscape outside of recently burned areas where invasive annual grasses were less abundant. These areas represented only 25% of the landscape and were prioritized for protection efforts. Needlegrass was associated with south-facing slopes, but in low abundance and in association with invasive cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ). Abundances of all three species were strongly negatively correlated with occurrence of another invasive annual grass, medusahead ( Taeniatherum caput-medusae ). The rarity of priority bunchgrass stands underscored the extent of degradation and the need for prioritization. We found no evidence that insularity reduced invasibility; annual grass invasion represents a serious threat to protected-area bunchgrass communities. Our study area was entirely within the Wyoming big sagebrush ecological zone, understood to have inherently low resilience to disturbance and resistance to weed invasion. However, our study revealed important variation in abundance of the foundation species associated with resilience and resistance along the topographic-soil moisture gradient within this zone, providing an important foothold for conservation decision-making in these steppe ecosystems. We found the foundation species focus a parsimonious strategy linking monitoring to decision-making via biogeographic modeling.

Ecosphere↗

Climate-smart management of biodiversity

Determining where biodiversity is likely to be most vulnerable to climate change and methods to reduce that vulnerability are necessary first steps to incorporate climate change into biodiversity management plans. Here, we use a spatial climate change vulnerability assessment to (1) map the potential vulnerability of terrestrial biodiversity to climate change in the northeastern United States and (2) provide guidance on how and where management actions for biodiversity could provide long-term benefits under climate change (i.e., climate-smart management considerations). Our model suggests that biodiversity will be most vulnerable in Delaware, Maryland, and the District of Columbia due to the combination of high climate change velocity, high landscape resistance, and high topoclimate homogeneity. Biodiversity is predicted to be least vulnerable in Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire because large portions of these states have low landscape resistance, low climate change velocity, and low topoclimate homogeneity. Our spatial climate-smart management considerations suggest that: (1) high topoclimate diversity could moderate the effects of climate change across 50% of the region; (2) decreasing local landscape resistance in conjunction with other management actions could increase the benefit of those actions across 17% of the region; and (3) management actions across 24% of the region could provide long-term benefits by promoting short-term population persistence that provides a source population capable of moving in the future. The guidance and framework we provide here should allow conservation organizations to incorporate our climate-smart management considerations into management plans without drastically changing their approach to biodiversity conservation.

Ecosphere↗

Assessing impacts of roads: application of a standard assessment protocol

Adaptive management of road networks depends on timely data that accurately reflect the impacts those systems are having on ecosystem processes and associated services. In the absence of reliable data, land managers are left with little more than observations and perceptions to support management decisions of road-associated disturbances. Roads can negatively impact the soil, hydrologic, plant, and animal processes on which virtually all ecosystem services depend. The Interpreting Indicators of Rangeland Health (IIRH) protocol is a qualitative method that has been demonstrated to be effective in characterizing impacts of roads. The goal of this study were to develop, describe, and test an approach for using IIRH to systematically evaluate road impacts across large, diverse arid and semiarid landscapes. We developed a stratified random sampling approach to plot selection based on ecological potential, road inventory data, and image interpretation of road impacts. The test application on a semiarid landscape in southern New Mexico, United States, demonstrates that the approach developed is sensitive to road impacts across a broad range of ecological sites but that not all the types of stratification were useful. Ecological site and road inventory strata accounted for significant variability in the functioning of ecological processes but stratification based on apparent impact did not. Analysis of the repeatability of IIRH applied to road plots indicates that the method is repeatable but consensus evaluations based on multiple observers should be used to minimize risk of bias. Landscape-scale analysis of impacts by roads of contrasting designs (maintained dirt or gravel roads vs. non- or infrequently maintained roads) suggests that future travel management plans for the study area should consider concentrating traffic on fewer roads that are well designed and maintained. Application of the approach by land managers will likely provide important insights into minimizing impacts of road networks on key ecosystem services.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

Assessing decadal-scale coastal change likelihood to define the accuracy and application of scientific information

Defining the accuracy and uncertainties of scientific data products is critical to the usability and trustworthiness of scientific information for environmental management and conservation purposes, such as coastal resource prioritization, design, adaptation, and mitigation. The U.S. Geological Survey has a new decadal-scale coastal change assessment product that synthesizes nearly two dozen coastal datasets. A supervised machine-learning framework is used to combine existing datasets that describe the landscape and the hazards that affect it to determine the coastal change likelihood (CCL) in the coming decade at a resolution of 10 m per pixel for the NE United States from Maine to Virginia. Here, results from a series of statistical tests conducted on source data, the supervised classification, and the CCL outcomes as compared with historical land-cover change are presented. The overall accuracy of the aggregated land-cover dataset that serves as the foundation to which other source datasets are appended is 94%. The supervised learning classification that determines the final CCL output has an overall accuracy of 92%. The CCL predictions of high expected coastal change were consistent with 95% of the coastal and low-elevation landscape change in the last 20 years, as recorded by the Coastal Change Analysis Program land-cover change atlas. Results suggest that CCL provides accurate estimates of coastal landscape change in the next decade that are consistent with recent observed change. Additionally, best practices for applying CCL for planning purposes are outlined, and citing limitations, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for improved accuracy and further investigation are considered.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

Impact of wildfire and slope aspect on soil temperature in a mountainous environment

Soil temperature changes after landscape disturbance impact hydrology, ecology, and geomorphology. This study used field measurements to examine wildfire and aspect effects on soil temperatures. Combustion of the litter and duff layers on north-facing slopes removed pre-fire aspect-driven soil temperature controls. Wildfire is one of the most significant disturbances in mountainous landscapes and can affect soil temperature, which can in turn impact ecologic and geomorphologic processes. This study measured the temperature in near-surface soil (i.e., top 30 cm) during the first summer after a wildfire. In mountainous environments, aspect can also affect soil temperature, so north- vs. south-facing aspects were compared using a fully factorial experimental design to explore the effects of both wildfire and aspect on soil temperature. The data showed major wildfire impacts on soil temperatures on north-facing aspects (unburned ∼4–5°C cooler, on average) but little impact on south-facing aspects. Differences in soil temperatures between north-facing and south-facing unburned aspects (north ∼5°C cooler, on average) were also observed. The data led to the conclusion that, for this field site during the summer period, the forest canopy and litter and duff layers on north-facing slopes (when unburned) substantially decreased mean soil temperatures and temperature variability. The sparse trees on south-facing slopes caused little to no difference in soil temperatures following wildfire in south-facing soils for unburned compared with burned conditions. The results indicate that wildfire can reduce or even remove aspect impacts on soil temperature by combusting the forest canopy and litter and duff layers, which then homogenizes soil temperatures across the landscape.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

Identifying suitable sites for Florida panther reintroduction

A major objective of the 1995 Florida Panther ( Puma concolor cory ) Recovery Plan is the establishment of 2 additional panther populations within the historic range. Our goal was to identify prospective sites for Florida panther reintroduction within the historic range based on quantitative landscape assessments. First, we delineated 86 panther home ranges using telemetry data collected from 1981 to 2001 in south Florida to develop a Mahalanobis distance (D 2 ) habitat model, using 4 anthropogenic variables and 3 landscape variables mapped at a 500-m resolution. From that analysis, we identified 9 potential reintroduction sites of sufficient size to support a panther population. We then developed a similar D 2 model at a higher spatial resolution to quantify the area of favorable panther habitat at each site. To address potential for the population to expand, we calculated the amount of favorable habitat adjacent to each prospective reintroduction site within a range of dispersal distances of female panthers. We then added those totals to the contiguous patches to estimate the total amount of effective panther habitat at each site. Finally, we developed an expert-assisted model to rank and incorporate potentially important habitat variables that were not appropriate for our empirical analysis (e.g., area of public lands, livestock density). Anthropogenic factors heavily influenced both the landscape and the expert-assisted models. Of the 9 areas we identified, the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, Ozark National Forest, and Felsenthal National Wildlife Refuge regions had the highest combination of effective habitat area and expert opinion scores. Sensitivity analyses indicated that variability among key model parameters did not affect the high ranking of those sites. Those sites should be considered as starting points for the field evaluation of potential reintroduction sites.

Florida↗