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At least 1,729 records · Page 96Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Simulation of groundwater flow and hydrologic effects of groundwater withdrawals from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Pinelands of southern New Jersey

The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system is an important source of present and future water supply in southern New Jersey. Because this unconfined aquifer system also supports sensitive wetland and aquatic habitats within the New Jersey Pinelands (Pinelands), water managers and policy makers need up-to-date information, data, and projections that show the effects of potential increases in groundwater withdrawals on these habitats. Finite-difference groundwater flow models (MODFLOW) were constructed for three drainage basins (McDonalds Branch Basin, 14.3 square kilometers (km 2 ); Morses Mill Stream Basin, 21.63 km 2 ; and Albertson Brook Basin, 52.27 km 2 ) to estimate the effects of potential increases in groundwater withdrawals on water levels and the base-flow portion of streamflow, in wetland and aquatic habitats. Three models were constructed for each drainage basin: a transient model consisting of twenty-four 1-month stress periods (October 2004 through September 2006); a transient model to simulate the 5- to 10-day aquifer tests that were performed as part of the study; and a high-resolution, steady-state model used to assess long-term effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. All models were constructed with the same eight-layer structure. The smallest horizontal cell dimensions among the three model areas were 150 meters (m) for the 24-month transient models, 10 m for the steady-state models, and 3 m for the transient aquifer-test models. Boundary flows of particular interest to this study and represented separately are those for wetlands, streams, and evapotranspiration. The final variables calibrated from both transient models were then used in steady-state models to assess the long-term effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. Results of aquifer tests conducted in the three study areas illustrate the effects of withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. Pumping stresses at aquifer-test sites resulted in measurable drawdown in each observation well installed for the tests. The magnitude of drawdown in shallow wetland observation wells at the end of pumping ranged from 5.5 to 16.7 centimeters (cm). The stresses induced by the respective tests reduced the flow of the smallest stream (McDonalds Branch) by 75 percent and slightly reduced flow in a side channel of Morses Mill Stream, but did not measurably affect the flow of Morses Mill Stream or Albertson Brook. Results of aquifer-test simulations were used to refine the estimates of hydraulic properties used in the models and to confirm the ability of the model to replicate observed hydrologic responses to pumping. Steady-state sensitivity simulation results for a variety of single well locations and depths were used to define overall “best-case” (smallest effect on wetland water levels and base flow) and “worst-case” (greatest effect on wetland water levels and base flow) groundwater withdrawal configurations. “Best-case” configurations are those for which the extent of the wetland areas within a 1-kilometer (km) radius of the withdrawal well is minimized, the well is located at least 100 m and as far from wetland boundaries as possible, and the withdrawal is from a deep well (50–90 m deep). “Worst-case” configurations are those for which the extent of wetlands within a 1-km radius of the withdrawal well is maximized, the well is located 100 m or less from a wetland boundary, and the withdrawal is from a relatively shallow well (30–67 m deep). “Best-” and “worst-case” simulations were applied by locating hypothetical wells across the study areas and assigning groundwater withdrawals so that the sum of the withdrawals for the basin is equal to 5, 10, 15, and 30 percent of overall recharge. The results were compared to the results of simulations of no groundwater withdrawals. Results for withdrawals of 5 percent of recharge show that the area of wetland water-level decline that exceeded 15 cm was as much as 1.5 percent of the total wetland area for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 9.7 percent of the total wetland area for the “worst-case” simulations. For the same withdrawals, base-flow reduction was as much as 5.1 percent for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 8.6 percent for the “worst-case” simulations. Results for withdrawals of 30 percent of recharge show that the area of wetland water-level decline that exceeded 15 cm was as much as 70 percent of the total wetland area for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 84 percent of the total wetland area for the “worst-case” simulations. For the same withdrawals, base-flow reduction was as much as 30 percent for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 51 percent for the “worst-case” simulations. Results for withdrawals of 10 and 15 percent of recharge show decreased water levels and base flow that are intermediate between those simulated for 5 and 30 percent of recharge. Several approaches for applying the results of this study to other parts of the Pinelands were explored. An analytical-modeling technique based on the Thiem equation and image-well theory was developed to estimate local drawdown distributions resulting from withdrawals in other areas within the Pinelands. Results of example applications of this technique were compared with those of the numerical simulations used in this study and were shown to be useful. Differences among the three basins in the simulated percentage of basin wetlands affected by drawdown were found to be related to the proximity of wetlands to streams, the proximity of wetlands to pumped wells, and the vertical conductance of the aquifer system. These factors formed the basis for an index of wetland vulnerability to drawdown. An empirically-derived model based on the Gompertz function and the wetland vulnerability index was developed, tested, and shown to be an effective means to evaluate potential drawdown in wetlands at a basin scale throughout the Pinelands. Base-flow reduction can be estimated from generalized results of the numerical models, estimates of evapotranspiration reduction, or available regional groundwater flow models. These approaches could be used to evaluate alternative water-supply strategies and, in conjunction with ecological-modeling results, to determine maximum basin withdrawal rates within the limits of acceptable ecological change.

New Jersey↗
USGS2019

Multi-resource analysis: A proof of concept study of natural resource tradeoffs in the Piceance Basin, Colorado, using the net resources assessment (NetRA) decision support tool

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a multi-resource analysis (MRA) line of products to inform land-use decision makers. Specifically, MRA products will integrate scientific information, include considerations for natural resource interrelations, and quantify the effects of resource management decisions in biophysical, economic, and societal terms. As part of the establishment of the MRA, the USGS, in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has developed the Net Resources Assessment (NetRA) decision support tool. As a proof of concept analysis, the NetRA was applied to the Piceance basin in Colorado in a hypothetical example to illustrate how resource managers could use the NetRA to consider tradeoffs of natural resources among alternative development plans and land cover patterns within a geographic region. The NetRA is a policy-relevant approach to assess the availability of multiple natural resources. It is an analytical toolset that may be used to examine the spatiotemporal relations between development of energy and mineral resources and delivery of biological natural resources. The NetRA operates at multiple map scales and contains a set of integrated, compatible submodels with specific data requirements for natural resource stocks, engineering economics, biophysical, and ecological data for ecosystem services stocks, market prices, regulations, and nonmarket values. The NetRA includes an explicit process to consider the interdependence between development and conservation, which is a crucial consideration in land-management and land-use decisions. The NetRA is used to estimate an expected net resource value (NRV). The NRV is the expected, present value, economic benefit from the extraction of a resource (for example, natural gas) minus the total cost of production, which is the aggregation of the development, production, and social costs. Social costs include private costs plus any external costs. There can be external social benefits associated with natural gas production, such as increased demand for locally produced goods and increased employment in the local area through backward and forward linkages of natural gas production. The NRV is used to compare development outcomes (scenarios) from a range of exploration and development plans for cumulative energy production. The Piceance basin application of the NetRA uses the NRV to assess the tradeoff between continuous natural gas extraction and the effects to the local populations of Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and aquatic species and to consumptive water uses for an area the size and resolution of a USGS energy resource assessment unit. In the proof of concept simulation, the 2.9-square-mile-area of USGS oil and gas assessment unit 50200263 (Piceance basin continuous gas unit of the Mesaverde Total Petroleum System) was gridded into 588 cells. From this area, seven clusters with potential for development and three that cannot be developed were identified; the three clusters that cannot be developed were identified as wilderness study areas, areas of critical environmental concern, and national forests. On the basis of these criteria, there are 118 cells unsuitable for development in the oil and gas assessment unit: 84 are in national forests, 23 are areas of critical environmental concern, and 11 are wilderness study areas. The remaining cells in the oil and gas assessment unit can be developed on both private and public lands. Two scenarios were considered that are distinguished as plan 1 and plan 2. Plan 1 keeps the amount of land disturbance unchanged and limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period, which constrains the amount of the energy resources available for development; the plan requires the usage of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) unsuitability criteria. Plan 2 also limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period but provides a constant volume of energy production by increasing the density of well pads within the cells. The effects of plan 2 to the NRV when there are five wells per pad and five pads per square mile happen mostly in the first 5 years of development, even though the effects on the population of mule deer continue in later years. This outcome is the result of the upfront development and investment costs and the initial effect to the ecosystem services.

Colorado↗
USGS2006

Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities

Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these ?site occupancy? models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123?1130) demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.

Biometrics↗
USGS2015

Derivation and application of the energy dissipation factor in the design of fishways

Reducing turbulence and associated air entrainment is generally considered advantageous in the engineering design of fish passage facilities. The well-known energy dissipation factor, or EDF, correlates with observations of the phenomena. However, inconsistencies in EDF forms exist and the bases for volumetric energy dissipation rate criteria are often misunderstood. A comprehensive survey of EDF criteria is presented. Clarity in the application of the EDF and resolutions to these inconsistencies are provided through formal derivations; it is demonstrated that kinetic energy represents only 1/3 of the total energy input for the special case of a broad-crested weir. Specific errors in published design manuals are identified and resolved. New, fundamentally sound, design equations for culvert outlet pools and standard Denil Fishway resting pools are developed. The findings underscore the utility of EDF equations, demonstrate the transferability of volumetric energy dissipation rates, and provide a foundation for future refinement of component-, species-, and life-stage-specific EDF criteria.

Ecological Engineering↗
USGS2007

Application of information theory methods to food web reconstruction

In this paper we use information theory techniques on time series of abundances to determine the topology of a food web. At the outset, the food web participants (two consumers, two resources) are known; in addition we know that each consumer prefers one of the resources over the other. However, we do not know which consumer prefers which resource, and if this preference is absolute (i.e., whether or not the consumer will consume the non-preferred resource). Although the consumers and resources are identified at the beginning of the experiment, we also provide evidence that the consumers are not resources for each other, and the resources do not consume each other. We do show that there is significant mutual information between resources; the model is seasonally forced and some shared information between resources is expected. Similarly, because the model is seasonally forced, we expect shared information between consumers as they respond to the forcing of the resources. The model that we consider does include noise, and in an effort to demonstrate that these methods may be of some use in other than model data, we show the efficacy of our methods with decreasing time series size; in this particular case we obtain reasonably clear results with a time series length of 400 points. This approaches ecological time series lengths from real systems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2023

Less is more: Less herbicide does more when biological control is present in Pontederia crassipes

An experiment along with simulation modeling was applied to study the combinations of herbicide treatment and biological control that best limit invasive water hyacinth ( Pontederia crassipes , formerly Eichhornia crassipes ) in freshwater aquatic systems. The experiment consisted of 14 different treatments of P. crassipes in 1.67 m 2 outdoor tank mesocosms. Seven treatments were with and seven were without insect biological control agents, Neochetina eichhorniae . In both of the sets of seven treatments, there was one no-herbicide treatment, a one-time full-strength herbicide treatment with 40 %, 80 % and 100 % coverage of the P. crassipes , and a one-time half-strength herbicide treatment with 40 %, 80 %, and 100 % surface area coverage. An overarching hypothesis was that leaving part of a tank unsprayed, providing habitat for the maintenance of biological control agents, would optimize control. Data from the experiment, measured on five days over the 167-day period, were used to calibrate a difference equation model of P. crassipes with and without the biological control agent. The model was then used to project longer term dynamics of the system. The model predicted that an initial one-time herbicide treatment, combined with application of the biocontrol agent at 80 % areal coverage, could maintain P. crassipes at levels lower than the carrying capacity of the plant's biomass over the long term, though not enough that N. eichhorniae would be considered, by itself, a highly effective control. However, the results suggest that a combination of biocontrol with 80 % spraying coverage every 600 days or so would be an effective integrated biocontrol strategy for maintaining decreased P. crassipes biomass at low levels over the long term.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2016

Disentangling density-dependent dynamics using full annual cycle models and Bayesian model weight updating

Density dependence regulates populations of many species across all taxonomic groups. Understanding density dependence is vital for predicting the effects of climate, habitat loss and/or management actions on wild populations. Migratory species likely experience seasonal changes in the relative influence of density dependence on population processes such as survival and recruitment throughout the annual cycle. These effects must be accounted for when characterizing migratory populations via population models. To evaluate effects of density on seasonal survival and recruitment of a migratory species, we used an existing full annual cycle model framework for American black ducks Anas rubripes , and tested different density effects (including no effects) on survival and recruitment. We then used a Bayesian model weight updating routine to determine which population model best fit observed breeding population survey data between 1990 and 2014. The models that best fit the survey data suggested that survival and recruitment were affected by density dependence and that density effects were stronger on adult survival during the breeding season than during the non-breeding season. Analysis also suggests that regulation of survival and recruitment by density varied over time. Our results showed that different characterizations of density regulations changed every 8–12 years (three times in the 25-year period) for our population. Synthesis and applications . Using a full annual cycle, modelling framework and model weighting routine will be helpful in evaluating density dependence for migratory species in both the short and long term. We used this method to disentangle the seasonal effects of density on the continental American black duck population which will allow managers to better evaluate the effects of habitat loss and potential habitat management actions throughout the annual cycle. The method here may allow researchers to hone in on the proper form and/or strength of density dependence for use in models for conservation recommendations.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

Linking environmental variability to long-term demographic change of an endangered species using integrated population models

Understanding how species populations change with environmental conditions is important for implementing effective habitat management and conservation strategies. Challenges to evaluating population-level responses to environmental conditions arise when data are sparse or not spatiotemporally aligned, especially for at-risk species with small, declining numbers. We synthesized 30 years (1992–2021) of three partially aligned data sets to build a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) and evaluate demographic and environmental drivers of growth rates for six separately managed ‘subpopulations’ (A–F) of the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow endemic to the Florida Everglades. We found that juvenile survival peaked at inundation periods (hydroperiods) around 100–220 days and dropped sharply outside those values, while adult survival increased with longer periods of water depth <20 cm, but not with longer periods of water depth >20 cm. Fecundity increased when water depths were more stable, more area was dry, intervals between fires were longer and less area was burned. Changes in population growth rates tended to occur in years that juvenile and adult survival were associated with hydroperiod, especially in the two largest subpopulations B and E. Population growth rates were also associated with hydrologic conditions during the breeding season and fire dynamics through changes in fecundity, most notably in the smaller subpopulations A, C/F and D. Synthesis and applications . Our IPM represents the first long-term population analysis of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow connecting demographic processes to environmental factors. Our results suggest that sustaining periods of shallow water year-round may enhance Cape Sable seaside sparrow survival and population growth. Also, limiting water depth variability and maintaining dry conditions during the breeding season and inhibiting fires in consecutive years may increase fecundity and population growth. Identifying the mechanistic links between environmental and population dynamics could inform how species are expected to respond to management decisions and anticipated ecosystem changes.

Florida↗
USGS2013

The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Introduction to a SETAC international workshop

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled “The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.” The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2006

Simulation of Water Levels and Salinity in the Rivers and Tidal Marshes in the Vicinity of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, Coastal South Carolina and Georgia

The Savannah Harbor is one of the busiest ports on the East Coast of the United States and is located downstream from the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, which is one of the Nation?s largest freshwater tidal marshes. The Georgia Ports Authority and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funded hydrodynamic and ecological studies to evaluate the potential effects of a proposed deepening of Savannah Harbor as part of the Environmental Impact Statement. These studies included a three-dimensional (3D) model of the Savannah River estuary system, which was developed to simulate changes in water levels and salinity in the system in response to geometry changes as a result of the deepening of Savannah Harbor, and a marsh-succession model that predicts plant distribution in the tidal marshes in response to changes in the water-level and salinity conditions in the marsh. Beginning in May 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into cooperative agreements with the Georgia Ports Authority to develop empirical models to simulate the water level and salinity of the rivers and tidal marshes in the vicinity of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge and to link the 3D hydrodynamic river-estuary model and the marsh-succession model. For the development of these models, many different databases were created that describe the complexity and behaviors of the estuary. The U.S. Geological Survey has maintained a network of continuous streamflow, water-level, and specific-conductance (field measurement to compute salinity) river gages in the study area since the 1980s and a network of water-level and salinity marsh gages in the study area since 1999. The Georgia Ports Authority collected water-level and salinity data during summer 1997 and 1999 and collected continuous water-level and salinity data in the marsh and connecting tidal creeks from 1999 to 2002. Most of the databases comprise time series that differ by variable type, periods of record, measurement frequency, location, and reliability. Understanding freshwater inflows, tidal water levels, and specific conductance in the rivers and marshes is critical to enhancing the predictive capabilities of a successful marsh succession model. Data-mining techniques, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were applied to address various needs of the ecology study and to integrate the riverine predictions from the 3D model to the marsh-succession model. ANN models were developed to simulate riverine water levels and specific conductance in the vicinity of the tidal marshes for the full range of historical conditions using data from the river gaging networks. ANN models were also developed to simulate the marsh water levels and pore-water salinities using data from the marsh gaging networks. Using the marsh ANN models, the continuous marsh network was hindcasted to be concurrent with the long-term riverine network. The hindcasted data allow ecologists to compute hydrologic parameters?such as hydroperiods and exposure frequency?to help analyze historical vegetation data. To integrate the 3D hydrodynamic model, the marsh-succession model, and various time-series databases, a decision support system (DSS) was developed to support the various needs of regulatory and scientific stakeholders. The DSS required the development of a spreadsheet application that integrates the database, 3D hydrodynamic model output, and ANN riverine and marsh models into a single package that is easy to use and can be readily disseminated. The DSS allows users to evaluate water-level and salinity response for different hydrologic conditions. Savannah River streamflows can be controlled by the user as constant flow, a percentage of historical flows, a percentile daily flow hydrograph, or as a user-specified hydrograph. The DSS can also use output from the 3D model at stream gages near the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge to simulate the effects in the tidal marshes. The DSS is distributed with a two-dimensional (

Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2014

Consequences of habitat change and resource selection specialization for population limitation in cavity-nesting birds

Resource selection specialization may increase vulnerability of populations to environmental change. One environmental change that may negatively impact some populations is the broad decline of quaking aspen Populus tremuloides , a preferred nest tree of cavity-nesting organisms who are commonly limited by nest-site availability. However, the long-term consequences of this habitat change for cavity-nesting bird populations are poorly studied. I counted densities of woody plants and eight cavity-nesting bird species over 29 years in 15 high-elevation riparian drainages in Arizona, USA. I also studied nest-tree use and specialization over time based on 4946 nests across species. Aspen suffered a severe decline in availability over time, while understorey woody plants and canopy deciduous trees also declined. The decline of plants resulted from increased elk Cervus canadensis browsing linked to declining snowfall. Woodpeckers exhibited very high specialization (>95% of nests) on aspen for nesting, and densities of all six species declined with aspen over time. Mountain chickadees Poecile gambeli and house wrens Troglodytes aedon exhibited increasingly less specialization on aspen. Chickadees strongly increased in density over time, despite a relatively high specialization on aspen. House wren densities declined moderately over time, but nest-box addition experiments demonstrated that nest-site availability was not limiting their population. House wren densities increased with understorey vegetation recovery in elk exclosures via increased generality of nest-site use, demonstrating that the decline in understorey vegetation on the broader landscape was the cause of their population decline. Synthesis and applications . Management should target species that specialize in resource selection on a declining resource. Species with greater resource selection generalization can reduce population impacts of environmental change. Resource generalization can allow a species like the wren to take advantage of habitat refuges, such as those provided by the elk exclosures. Yet, resource generalization cannot offset the negative impacts of broad-scale declines in habitat quality on the landscape, as demonstrated by the general decline of wrens. Ultimately, aspen is an important habitat for biodiversity, and land management programmes that protect and aid recovery of aspen habitats may be critical.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2019

The contribution of road-based citizen science to the conservation of pond-breeding amphibians

Roadside amphibian citizen science (CS) programmes bring together volunteers focused on collecting scientific data while working to mitigate population declines by reducing road mortality of pond‐breeding amphibians. Despite the international popularity of these movement‐based, roadside conservation efforts (i.e. “big nights,” “bucket brigades” and “toad patrols”), direct benefits to conservation have rarely been quantified or evaluated. As a case study, we used a population simulation approach to evaluate how volunteer intensity, frequency and distribution influence three conservation outcomes (minimum population size, population growth rate and years to extinction) of the spotted salamander ( Ambystoma maculatum ), often a focal pond‐breeding amphibian of CS and conservation programmes in the United States. Sensitivity analysis supported the expectation that spotted salamander populations were primarily recruitment‐driven. Thus, conservation outcomes were highest when volunteers focused on metamorph outmigration as opposed to adult in‐migration—contrary to the typical timing of such volunteer events. Almost every volunteer strategy resulted in increased conservation outcomes compared to a no‐volunteer strategy. Specifically, volunteer frequency during metamorph migration increased outcomes more than the same increases in volunteer effort during adult migration. Small population sizes resulted in a negligible effect of volunteer intensity. Volunteers during the first adult in‐migration had a relatively small effect compared to most other strategies. Synthesis and applications . Although citizen science (CS)‐focused conservation actions could directly benefit declining populations, additional conservation measures are needed to halt or reverse local amphibian declines. This study demonstrates a need to evaluate the effectiveness of focusing CS mitigation efforts on the metamorph stage, as opposed to the adult stage. This may be challenging, compared to other management actions such as road‐crossing infrastructure. Current amphibian CS programmes will be challenged to balance implementing evidence‐based conservation measures on the most limiting life stage, while retaining social and community benefits for volunteers.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2007

Design and implementation of estimation-based monitoring programs for flora and fauna: A case study on the Cherokee National Forest

Science-based monitoring of biological resources is important for a greater understanding of ecological systems and for assessment of the target population using theoretic-based management approaches. When selecting variables to monitor, managers first need to carefully consider their objectives, the geographic and temporal scale at which they will operate, and the effort needed to implement the program. Generally, monitoring can be divided into two categories: index and inferential. Although index monitoring is usually easier to implement, analysis of index data requires strong assumptions about consistency in detection rates over time and space, and parameters are often biasednot accounting for detectability and spatial variation. In most cases, individuals are not always available for detection during sampling periods, and the entire area of interest cannot be sampled. Conversely, inferential monitoring is more rigorous because it is based on nearly unbiased estimators of spatial distribution. Thus, we recommend that detectability and spatial variation be considered for all monitoring programs that intend to make inferences about the target population or the area of interest. Application of these techniques is especially important for the monitoring of Threatened and Endangered (T&E) species because it is critical to determine if population size is increasing or decreasing with some level of certainty. Use of estimation-based methods and probability sampling will reduce many of the biases inherently associated with index data and provide meaningful information with respect to changes that occur in target populations. We incorporated inferential monitoring into protocols for T&E species spanning a wide range of taxa on the Cherokee National Forest in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. We review the various approaches employed for different taxa and discuss design issues, sampling strategies, data analysis, and the details of estimating detectability using site occupancy. These techniques provide a science-based approach for monitoring and can be of value to all resource managers responsible for management of T&E species.

Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Southe↗
USGS2023

Application of habitat association models across regions: Useful explanatory power retained in wetland bird case study

Species often exhibit regionally specific habitat associations, so habitat association models developed in one region might not be accurate or even appropriate for other regions. Three programs to survey wetland-breeding birds covering (respectively) Great Lakes coastal wetlands, inland Great Lakes wetlands, and the Prairie Pothole Region offer an opportunity to test whether regionally specific models of habitat use by wetland-obligate breeding birds are transferrable across regions. We first developed independent, regional population density models for four species of wetland-obligate birds: Pied-billed Grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ), Virginia Rail ( Rallus limicola ), Sora ( Porzana carolina ), and American Bittern ( Botaurus lentiginosus ). We then used adjusted pseudo- R 2 values to compare the amount of variation explained by each model when applied to data collected in each of the three regions. Although certain habitat characteristics, such as emergent vegetation and wetland area, were consistently important across regions, models for each species differed by region—both in variables selected for inclusion and often in the directionality of relationships for common variables—indicating that habitat associations for these species are regionally specific. When we applied a model developed in one region to data collected in another region, we found that explanatory power was reduced in most (71%) models. Therefore, we suggest that ecological analyses should emphasize regionally specific habitat association models whenever possible. Nonetheless, models created from inland Great Lakes wetland data had higher median explanatory power when applied to other regions, and the amount of explanatory power lost by other transferred models was relatively small. Thus, while regionally specific habitat association models are preferable, in the absence of reliable regional data, habitat association models developed in one region may be applied to another region, but the results need to be cautiously interpreted. Additionally, we found that median explanatory power was higher when local-scale habitat characteristics were included in the models, indicating that regionally specific models should ideally be based on a combination of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics. Conservation practitioners can leverage such regionally specific models and associated monitoring data to help prioritize areas for management activities that contribute to regional conservation efforts.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗
USGS2017

Can ozone be used to control the spread of freshwater Aquatic Invasive Species?

The introduction of aquatic invasive species to non-native habitats can cause negative ecological effects and also billions of dollars in economic damage to governments and private industries. Once aquatic invasive species are introduced, eradication may be difficult without adversely affecting native species and habitats, urging resource managers to find preventative methods to protect non-invaded areas. The use of ozone (O 3 ) as a non-physical barrier has shown promise as it is lethal to a wide range of aquatic taxa, requires a short contact time, and is relatively environmentally safe in aquatic systems when compared to other chemicals. However, before O 3 can be considered as an approach to prevent the spread of aquatic invasive species, its effects on non-target organisms and already established aquatic invasive species must be fully evaluated. A review of the current literature was conducted to summarize data regarding the effects of O 3 on aquatic taxa including fish, macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, phytoplankton, microbes, and pathogens. In addition, we assessed the practicality of ozone applications to control the movement of aquatic invasive species, and identified data gaps concerning the use of O 3 as a non-physical barrier in field applications.

Management of Biological Invasions↗
USGS2018

Effects of watershed and in-stream liming on macroinvertebrate communities in acidified tributaries to an Adirondack lake

Liming techniques are being explored as a means to accelerate the recovery of aquatic biota from decades of acid deposition in many regions. The preservation or restoration of native sportfish populations has typically been the impetus for liming programs, and as such, less attention has been given to its effects on other biological assemblages such as macroinvertebrates. Furthermore, the differing effects of various lime application strategies such as in-stream and watershed applications are not well understood. In 2012, a program was initiated using in-stream and aerial (whole-watershed) liming to improve water quality and Brook Trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) recruitment in three acidified tributaries of a high-elevation Adirondack lake in New York State. Concurrently, macroinvertebrates were sampled annually between 2013 and 2016 at 3 treated sites and 3 untreated reference sites to assess the effects of each liming technique on this community. Despite improvements in water chemistry in all three limed streams, our results generally suggest that neither liming technique succeeded in improving the condition of macroinvertebrate communities. The watershed application caused an immediate and unsustained decrease in the density of macroinvertebrates and increase in the proportion of sensitive taxa. These changes were driven primarily by a one-year 71 percent reduction of the acid-tolerant Leuctra stoneflies and likely represent an initial chemistry shock from the lime application rather than a recovery response. The in-stream applications appeared to reduce the density of macroinvertebrates, particularly in one stream where undissolved lime covered the natural substrate. The close proximity of our study sites to the in-stream application points (50 and 1230 m) may partly explain these negative effects. Our results are consistent with prior studies of in-stream liming which indicate that this technique often fails to restore macroinvertebrate communities to a pre-acidification condition, especially at distances <1.5 km downstream of the lime application point. The inability of either liming technique to improve the condition of macroinvertebrate communities may be partly explained by the persistence of acidic episodes in all three streams. This suggests that in order to be effective, liming programs should attempt to eliminate even temporary episodes of unsuitable water chemistry rather than just meeting minimal criteria the majority of the time. Because watershed liming produced a more stable water chemistry regime than in-stream liming, this technique may have greater future potential to eliminate toxic episodes and accelerate the recovery of acid-impacted macroinvertebrate communities.

New York↗
USGS2017

Oak habitat recovery on California's largest islands: Scenarios for the role of corvid seed dispersal

Seed dispersal by birds is central to the passive restoration of many tree communities. Reintroduction of extinct seed dispersers can therefore restore degraded forests and woodlands. To test this, we constructed a spatially explicit simulation model, parameterized with field data, to consider the effect of different seed dispersal scenarios on the extent of oak populations. We applied the model to two islands in California's Channel Islands National Park (USA), one of which has lost a key seed disperser. We used an ensemble modelling approach to simulate island scrub oak ( Quercus pacifica ) demography. The model was developed and trained to recreate known population changes over a 20-year period on 250-km 2 Santa Cruz Island, and incorporated acorn dispersal by island scrub-jays ( Aphelocoma insularis ), deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ) and gravity, as well as seed predation. We applied the trained model to 215-km 2 Santa Rosa Island to examine how reintroducing island scrub-jays would affect the rate and pattern of oak population expansion. Oak habitat on Santa Rosa Island has been greatly reduced from its historical extent due to past grazing by introduced ungulates, the last of which were removed by 2011. Our simulation model predicts that a seed dispersal scenario including island scrub-jays would increase the extent of the island scrub oak population on Santa Rosa Island by 281% over 100 years, and by 544% over 200 years. Scenarios without jays would result in little expansion. Simulated long-distance seed dispersal by jays also facilitates establishment of discontinuous patches of oaks, and increases their elevational distribution. Synthesis and applications . Scenario planning provides powerful decision support for conservation managers. We used ensemble modelling of plant demographic and seed dispersal processes to investigate whether the reintroduction of seed dispersers could provide cost-effective means of achieving broader ecosystem restoration goals on California's second-largest island. The simulation model, extensively parameterized with field data, suggests that re-establishing the mutualism with seed-hoarding jays would accelerate the expansion of island scrub oak, which could benefit myriad species of conservation concern.

California↗
USGS2018

Pulsed flows, tributary inputs, and food web structure in a highly regulated river

1.Dams disrupt the river continuum, altering hydrology, biodiversity, and energy flow. Although research indicates that tributary inputs have the potential to dilute these effects, knowledge at the food web level is still scarce. 2.Here we examined the riverine food web structure of the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam, focusing on organic matter sources, trophic diversity, and food chain length. We asked how these components respond to pulsed flows from tributaries following monsoon thunderstorms that seasonally increase streamflow in the American Southwest. 3.Tributaries increased the relative importance of terrestrial organic matter, particularly during the wet season below junctures of key tributaries. This contrasted with the algal-based food web present immediately below Glen Canyon Dam. 4.Tributary inputs during the monsoon also increased trophic diversity and food chain length: food chain length peaked below the confluence with the largest tributary (by discharge) in Grand Canyon, increasing by >1 trophic level over a 4-5 kilometre reach possibly due to aquatic prey being flushed into the mainstem during heavy rain events. 5.Our results illustrate that large tributaries can create seasonal discontinuities, influencing riverine food web structure in terms of allochthony, food web diversity, and food chain length. 6.Synthesis and applications. Pulsed flows from unregulated tributaries following seasonal monsoon rains increase the importance of terrestrially-derived organic matter in large, regulated river food webs, increasing food chain length and trophic diversity downstream of tributary inputs. Protecting unregulated tributaries within hydropower cascades may be important if we are to mitigate food web structure alteration due to flow regulation by large dams. This is critical in the light of global hydropower development, especially in megadiverse, developing countries where dam placement (including completed and planned structures) is in tributaries.

Colorado River↗