SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climate Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,729 records · Page 96Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Wetlands under global change

Wetlands are among the ecosystem types most threatened by global change, including both climate change and other anthropogenic factors such as sea level rise, urban development, deforestation, agricultural land use, drainage, levees, tidal flow restrictions, pollution, eutrophication, and fires. Wetlands not only store disproportionate amounts of carbon compared to other terrestrial ecosystems, but they lie at the terrestrial-aquatic interface crucial to understanding landscape and global scale biogeochemical cycles. In this chapter, we focus on the major global change factors affecting wetlands and the responses of different wetland types to those global change factors. Special attention is given to direct responses to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Because of their hydrological connections and placement at the terrestrial-aquatic interface, the conservation of wetlands involves accounting for uncertainties related to interacting stressors. While the past decades have seen many important experimental and observational studies of wetland responses to global change factors, large uncertainties remain, especially within tropical regions where even the basic extent of wetland ecosystems is not well documented.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Net ecosystem productivity of temperate grasslands in northern China: An upscaling study

Grassland is one of the widespread biome types globally, and plays an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. We examined net ecosystem production (NEP) for the temperate grasslands in northern China from 2000 to 2010. We combined flux observations, satellite data, and climate data to develop a piecewise regression model for NEP, and then used the model to map NEP for grasslands in northern China. Over the growing season, the northern China's grassland had a net carbon uptake of 158 ± 25 g C m −2 during 2000–2010 with the mean regional NEP estimate of 126 Tg C. Our results showed generally higher grassland NEP at high latitudes (northeast) than at low latitudes (central and west) because of different grassland types and environmental conditions. In the northeast, which is dominated by meadow steppes, the growing season NEP generally reached 200–300 g C m −2 . In the southwest corner of the region, which is partially occupied by alpine meadow systems, the growing season NEP also reached 200–300 g C m −2 . In the central part, which is dominated by typical steppe systems, the growing season NEP generally varied in the range of 100–200 g C m−2. The NEP of the northern China's grasslands was highly variable through years, ranging from 129 (2001) to 217 g C m −2 growing season −1 (2010). The large interannual variations of NEP could be attributed to the sensitivity of temperate grasslands to climate changes and extreme climatic events. The droughts in 2000, 2001, and 2006 reduced the carbon uptake over the growing season by 11%, 29%, and 16% relative to the long-term (2000–2010) mean. Over the study period (2000–2010), precipitation was significantly correlated with NEP for the growing season (R 2 = 0.35, p-value < 0.1), indicating that water availability is an important stressor for the productivity of the temperate grasslands in semi-arid and arid regions in northern China. We conclude that northern temperate grasslands have the potential to sequester carbon, but the capacity of carbon sequestration depends on grassland types and environmental conditions. Extreme climate events like drought can significantly reduce the net carbon uptake of grasslands.

Inner Mongolia;Gansu;And Ningxia Provinces↗

USGS2019

Widespread initiation, reactivation, and acceleration of landslides in the northern California Coast Ranges due to extreme rainfall

Episodically to continuously active slow-moving landslides are driven by precipitation. Climate change, which is altering both the frequency and magnitude of precipitation world21 wide, is therefore predicted to have a major impact on landslides. Here we examine the behavior of hundreds of slow-moving landslides in northern California in response to large changes in annual precipitation that occurred between 2016 and 2018. We quantify the landslide displacement using repeat-pass radar interferometry and pixel offset tracking techniques on a novel dataset from the airborne NASA/JPL Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar. We found that 312 landslides were moving due to extreme rainfall during 2017, compared to 119 during 2016, which was the final year of a historic multi-year drought. However, with a return to below average rainfall in 2018, only 146 landslides remained in motion. The increased number of landslides during 2017 was primarily accommodated by landslides that were smaller than the landslides that remained active between 2016 and 2018. Furthermore, by examining a subset of 51 landslides, we found that 49 had increased velocities during 2017 when compared to 2016. Our results show that slow-moving landslides are sensitive to large changes in annual precipitation, particularly the smaller and thinner landslides that likely experience larger basal pore water pressure changes. Based on climate model predictions for the next century in California, which include increases in annual precipitation and increases in the frequency of dry-to-wet extremes, we hypothesize that there will be an overall increase in landslide activity.

California↗

USGS2020

Soil respiration response to rainfall modulated by plant phenology in a montane meadow, East River, Colorado, USA

Soil respiration is a primary component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, predicting the response of soil respiration to climate change remains a challenge due to the complex interactions between environmental drivers, especially plant phenology, temperature, and soil moisture. In this study, we use a 1‐D diffusion‐reaction model to calculate depth‐resolved CO 2 production rates from soil CO 2 concentrations and surface efflux observations in a subalpine meadow in the East River watershed, CO. Modeled rates are compared to in situ soil temperature and moisture conditions and MODIS satellite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) representing plant phenology across three hydrologically distinct growing seasons from 2016–2018. While soil respiration correlated with temperature on diel timescales ( p < 0.05), seasonal variability was dominated by soil moisture and plant phenology ( p < 0.05). We observed significant respiration increases in response to precipitation events; however, magnitude and duration were significantly higher in 2017 than 2016 despite similar wetting characteristics. Based on MODIS EVI, we suggest that the respiration response to rainfall is controlled by plant phenology, which in turn reflects the capacity of plants to respond to precipitation via increased photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, behavior that is not captured in typical soil respiration pulse models. Projected changes in montane climate such as earlier snowmelt and prolonged fore‐summer drought may decrease soil respiration fluxes by decreasing the overlap between peak productivity and the summer monsoon. Finally, we observed significant late season CO 2 fluxes from the deep subsoil (>165 cm) that support growing evidence for the importance of subsoil processes in driving integrated respiration fluxes.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

Variations in the fine-scale composition of a central Pacific ferromanganese crust: Paleoceanographic implications

A 47- to 60-mm-thick Fe-Mn crust from Horizon Guyot (water depth 1800–1780 m), central Pacific, was used to evaluate the potential of crusts as recorders of Neogene paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic conditions. The chemical composition was determined by microprobe for 16 elements from a polished thin section. Three analyses were made per millimeter and averaged to give the composition of each millimeter. The age of the crust was determined by measuring the strontium isotope composition of the crust and comparing it with the Tertiary seawater curve. The crust represents 18.5 m.y. of growth of Fe and Mn oxyhydroxides. The crust is composed of alternating botryoidal and laminated layers. The botryoidal layers formed during the same time intervals that widespread Neogene deep-sea hiatuses were forming in bottom sediments. The botryoidal layers represent growth during times of intensified deepwater flow, whereas the laminated intervals represent more quiescent conditions. The correspondence between the botryoidal layers and the Neogene hiatuses is so strong that we were able to choose a variable growth rate model over a constant growth rate model for the crust. Chemical changes in the crust take two forms. The first is represented by broad changes in the composition defined chiefly by fourth-order polynomial fits to the chemical profiles of each element with depth in the crust. The second is high-frequency changes in composition. The broader changes occurred primarily at about 15, 11.5, 7.4, 6.4, 5.2, and 4.6 Ma, which may correlate with major changes in paleoceanographic circulation and development of ice caps at the poles. The periods of the high-frequency changes may reflect climatic changes that resulted from orbital forcing. These high-frequency changes may correspond to the high-order eccentricity periods of 3.47, 2.04, and 1.31 m.y.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗

USGS2002

Methane hydrate in the global organic carbon cycle

The global occurrence of methane hydrate in outer continental margins and in polar regions, and the magnitude of the amount of methane sequestered in methane hydrate suggest that methane hydrate is an important component in the global organic carbon cycle. Various versions of this cycle have emphasized the importance of methane hydrate, and in the latest version the role of methane hydrate is considered to be analogous to the workings of an electrical circuit. In this circuit the methane hydrate is a condenser and the consequences of methane hydrate dissociation are depicted as a resistor and inductor, reflecting temperature change and changes in earth surface history. These consequences may have implications for global change including global climate change.

Terra Nova↗

USGS2022

Grassy–herbaceous land moderates regional climate effects on honey bee colonies in the Northcentral US

The lack of seasonally sustained floral resources (i.e. pollen and nectar) is considered a primary global threat to pollinator health. However, the ability to predict the abundance of flowering resources for pollinators based upon climate, weather, and land cover is difficult due to insufficient monitoring over adequate spatial and temporal scales. Here we use spatiotemporally distributed honey bee hive scales that continuously measure hive weights as a standardized method to assess nectar intake. We analyze late summer colony weight gain as the response variable in a random forest regression model to determine the importance of climate, weather, and land cover on honey bee colony productivity. Our random forest model predicted resource acquisition by honey bee colonies with 71% accuracy, highlighting the detrimental effects of warm, wet regions in the Northcentral United States on nectar intake, as well as the detrimental effect of years with high growing degree day accumulation. Our model also predicted that grassy–herbaceous natural land had a positive effect on the summer nectar flow and that large areas of natural grassy–herbaceous land around apiaries can moderate the detrimental effects of warm, wet climates. These patterns characterize multi-scale ecological processes that constrain the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. That is, broad climate conditions constrain regional floral communities, while land use and weather act to further modify the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. Observing such broad-scale trends demonstrates the potential for utilizing hive scales to monitor the effects of climate change on landscape-level floral resources for pollinators. The interaction of climate and land use also present an opportunity to manage for climate-resilient landscapes that support pollinators through abundant floral resources under climate change.

Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylva↗

USGS2021

A science agenda to inform natural resource management decisions in an era of ecological transformation

Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.

BioScience↗

USGS2005

Climate science and famine early warning

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2010

Balancing forest-regeneration probabilities and maintenance costs in dry grasslands of high conservation priority

Abandonment of agricultural land has resulted in forest regeneration in species-rich dry grasslands across European mountain regions and threatens conservation efforts in this vegetation type. To support national conservation strategies, we used a site-selection algorithm (MARXAN) to find optimum sets of floristic regions (reporting units) that contain grasslands of high conservation priority. We sought optimum sets that would accommodate 136 important dry-grassland species and that would minimize forest regeneration and costs of management needed to forestall predicted forest regeneration. We did not consider other conservation elements of dry grasslands, such as animal species richness, cultural heritage, and changes due to climate change. Optimal sets that included 95–100% of the dry grassland species encompassed an average of 56–59 floristic regions (standard deviation, SD 5). This is about 15% of approximately 400 floristic regions that contain dry-grassland sites and translates to 4800–5300 ha of dry grassland out of a total of approximately 23,000 ha for the entire study area. Projected costs to manage the grasslands in these optimum sets ranged from CHF (Swiss francs) 5.2 to 6.0 million/year. This is only 15–20% of the current total estimated cost of approximately CHF30–45 million/year required if all dry grasslands were to be protected. The grasslands of the optimal sets may be viewed as core sites in a national conservation strategy.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2013

Landsat imagery reveals declining clarity of Maine’s lakes during 1995-2010

Water clarity is a strong indicator of regional water quality. Unlike other common water-quality metrics, such as chlorophyll a , total P, or trophic status, clarity can be accurately and efficiently estimated remotely on a regional scale. Satellite-based remote sensing is useful in regions with many lakes where traditional field-sampling techniques may be prohibitively expensive. Repeated sampling of easily accessed lakes can lead to spatially irregular, nonrandom samples of a region. Remote sensing remedies this problem. We applied a remote monitoring protocol we had previously developed for Maine lakes >8 ha based on Landsat satellite data recorded during 1995–2010 to identify spatial and temporal patterns in Maine lake clarity. We focused on the overlapping region of Landsat paths 11 and 12 to increase availability of cloud-free images in August and early September, a period of relative lake stability and seasonal poor-clarity conditions well suited for annual monitoring. We divided Maine into 3 regions (northeastern, south-central, western) based on morphometric and chemical lake features. We found a general decrease in average statewide lake clarity from 4.94 to 4.38 m during 1995–2010. Water clarity ranged from 4 to 6 m during 1995–2010, but it decreased consistently during 2005–2010. Clarity in both the northeastern and western lake regions has decreased from 5.22 m in 1995 to 4.36 and 4.21 m, respectively, in 2010, whereas lake clarity in the south-central lake region (4.50 m) has not changed since 1995. Climate change, timber harvesting, or watershed morphometry may be responsible for regional water-clarity decline. Remote sensing of regional water clarity provides a more complete spatial perspective of lake water quality than existing, interest-based sampling. However, field sampling done under existing monitoring programs can be used to calibrate accurate models designed to estimate water clarity remotely.

Maine↗

USGS2010

Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea- and lake-level change

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers). ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2009

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Region: Alaska Coastal and Ocean Science

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a bureau of the Department of the Interior (DOI), is the Nation's largest water, earth, and biological science and mapping agency. The bureau's science strategy 'Facing Tomorrow's Challenges - U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007-2017' describes the USGS vision for its science in six integrated areas of societal concern: Understanding Ecosystems and Predicting Ecosystem Change; Climate Variability and Change; Energy and Minerals; Hazards, Risk, and Resilience; Environment and Wildlife in Human Health; and Water Census of the United States. USGS has three Regions that encompass nine geographic Areas. This fact sheet describes examples of USGS science conducted in coastal, nearshore terrestrial, and ocean environments in the Alaska Area.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2012

Chesapeake Bay Watershed - Protecting the Chesapeake Bay and its rivers through science, restoration, and partnership

The Chesapeake Bay, the Nation's largest estuary, has been degraded due to the impact of human-population increase, which has doubled since 1950, resulting in degraded water quality, loss of habitat, and declines in populations of biological communities. Since the mid-1980s, the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP), a multi-agency partnership which includes the Department of Interior (DOI), has worked to restore the Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the critical role of providing unbiased scientific information that is utilized to document and understand ecosystem change to help assess the effectiveness of restoration strategies in the Bay and its watershed. The USGS revised its Chesapeake Bay science plan for 2006-2011 to address the collective needs of the CBP, DOI, and USGS with a mission to provide integrated science for improved understanding and management of the Bay ecosystem. The USGS science themes for this mission are: Causes and consequences of land-use change; Impact of climate change and associated hazards; Factors affecting water quality and quantity; Ability of habitat to support fish and bird populations; and Synthesis and forecasting to improve ecosystem assessment, conservation, and restoration.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2015

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Point Reyes, California

This publication about the Offshore of Point Reyes map area includes ten map sheets that contain explanatory text, in addition to this descriptive pamphlet and a data catalog of geographic information system (GIS) files. Sheets 1, 2, and 3 combine data from four different sonar surveys to generate comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry and acoustic-backscatter coverage of the map area. These data reveal a range of physiographic features (highlighted in the perspective views on sheet 4) such as the flat, sediment-covered seafloor in Drakes Bay, as well as abundant “scour depressions” on the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf (see sheet 9) and local, tectonically controlled bedrock uplifts. To validate geological and biological interpretations of the sonar data shown in sheets 1, 2, and 3, the U.S. Geological Survey towed a camera sled over specific offshore locations, collecting both video and photographic imagery; these “ground-truth” surveying data are summarized on sheet 6. Sheet 5 is a “seafloor character” map, which classifies the seafloor on the basis of depth, slope, rugosity (ruggedness), and backscatter intensity and which is further informed by the ground-truth-survey imagery. Sheet 7 is a map of “potential habitats,” which are delineated on the basis of substrate type, geomorphology, seafloor process, or other attributes that may provide a habitat for a specific species or assemblage of organisms. Sheet 8 compiles representative seismic-reflection profiles from the map area, providing information on the subsurface stratigraphy and structure of the map area. Sheet 9 shows the distribution and thickness of young sediment (deposited over the last about 21,000 years, during the most recent sea-level rise) in both the map area and the larger Salt Point to Drakes Bay region, interpreted on the basis of the seismic-reflection data, and it identifies the Offshore of Point Reyes map area as lying within the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf, Point Reyes bar, and Bolinas shelf domains. Sheet 10 is a geologic map that merges onshore geologic mapping (compiled from existing maps by the California Geological Survey) and new offshore geologic mapping that is based on integration of high-resolution bathymetry and backscatter imagery (sheets 1, 2, 3), seafloor-sediment and rock samples (Reid and others, 2006), digital camera and video imagery (sheet 6), and high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (sheet 8), as well as aerial-photographic interpretation of nearshore areas. The information provided by the map sheets, pamphlet, and data catalog have a broad range of applications. High-resolution bathymetry, acoustic backscatter, ground-truth-surveying imagery, and habitat mapping all contribute to habitat characterization and ecosystem-based management by providing essential data for delineation of marine protected areas and ecosystem restoration. Many of the maps provide high-resolution baselines that will be critical for monitoring environmental change associated with climate change, coastal development, or other forcings. High-resolution bathymetry is a critical component for modeling coastal flooding caused by storms and tsunamis, as well as inundation associated with longer term sea-level rise. Seismic-reflection and bathymetric data help characterize earthquake and tsunami sources, critical for natural-hazard assessments of coastal zones. Information on sediment distribution and thickness is essential to the understanding of local and regional sediment transport, as well as the development of regional sediment-management plans. In addition, siting of any new offshore infrastructure (for example, pipelines, cables, or renewable-energy facilities) will depend on high-resolution mapping. Finally, this mapping will both stimulate and enable new scientific research and also raise public awareness of, and education about, coastal environments and issues.

California↗

USGS1999

Desert winds: Monitoring wind-related surface processes in Arizona, New Mexico, and California

The 18-year Desert Winds Project established instrumented field sites in the five major regions of the North American Desert to obtain meteorological, geological, and vegetation data for natural desert sites affected by wind erosion. The eight chapters in this volume describe the settings and operation of the stations and summarize eolian-related research to date around the stations. The report includes studies of the sand-moving effectiveness of storm winds, wind-erosion susceptibility of different ground-surface types, relations of dust storms to meteorological conditions, mediation of wind erosion by vegetation, remote sensing to detect vegetation changes related to climate change, and comparison of regional dust deposition to that near Owens (dry) Lake.

Arizona, California, New Mexico↗

USGS2010

Perspectives: Gene Expression in Fisheries Management

Functional genes and gene expression have been connected to physiological traits linked to effective production and broodstock selection in aquaculture, selective implications of commercial fish harvest, and adaptive changes reflected in non-commercial fish populations subject to human disturbance and climate change. Gene mapping using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to identify functional genes, gene expression (analogue microarrays and real-time PCR), and digital sequencing technologies looking at RNA transcripts present new concepts and opportunities in support of effective and sustainable fisheries. Genomic tools have been rapidly growing in aquaculture research addressing aspects of fish health, toxicology, and early development. Genomic technologies linking effects in functional genes involved in growth, maturation and life history development have been tied to selection resulting from harvest practices. Incorporating new and ever-increasing knowledge of fish genomes is opening a different perspective on local adaptation that will prove invaluable in wild fish conservation and management. Conservation of fish stocks is rapidly incorporating research on critical adaptive responses directed at the effects of human disturbance and climate change through gene expression studies. Genomic studies of fish populations can be generally grouped into three broad categories: 1) evolutionary genomics and biodiversity; 2) adaptive physiological responses to a changing environment; and 3) adaptive behavioral genomics and life history diversity. We review current genomic research in fisheries focusing on those that use microarrays to explore differences in gene expression among phenotypes and within or across populations, information that is critically important to the conservation of fish and their relationship to humans.

Current Zoology↗

USGS2020

Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management

Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is reaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological systems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management decisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked problems in land management—those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant to easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape modeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate futures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2) a future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of each approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and landscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with the FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that typical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts of rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability of ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies, future landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones, with significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate and wildfire.

Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming↗