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USGS2011

Potentiometric surface of the upper Floridan aquifer, west-central Florida, May 2011

The Floridan aquifer system consists of the Upper and Lower Floridan aquifers separated by the middle confining unit. The middle confining unit and the Lower Floridan aquifer in west-central Florida generally contain highly mineralized water. The water-bearing units containing freshwater are herein referred to as the Upper Floridan aquifer. The Upper Floridan aquifer is the principal source of water in the Southwest Florida Water Management District and is used for major public supply, domestic use, irrigation, and brackish water desalination in coastal communities (Southwest Florida Water Management District, 2000). This map report shows the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer measured in May 2011. The potentiometric surface is an imaginary surface connecting points of equal altitude to which water will rise in tightly-cased wells that tap a confined aquifer system (Lohman, 1979). This map represents water-level conditions near the end of the dry season, when groundwater levels usually are at an annual low and withdrawals for agricultural use typically are high. The cumulative average rainfall of 45.74 inches for west-central Florida (from June 2010 through May 2011) was 6.85 inches below the historical cumulative average of 52.59 inches (Southwest Florida Water Management District, 2011). Historical cumulative averages are calculated from regional rainfall summary reports (1915 to most recent complete calendar year) and are updated monthly by the Southwest Florida Water Management District. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Southwest Florida Water Management District, is part of a semi-annual series of Upper Floridan aquifer potentiometric-surface map reports for west-central Florida. Potentiometric-surface maps have been prepared for January 1964, May 1969, May 1971, May 1973, May 1974, and for each May and September from 1975 through 2010. Water-level data are collected in May and September each year to show the approximate annual low and high water-level conditions, respectively. Most of the water-level data for this map were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during the period May 23-27, 2011. Supplemental water-level data were collected by other agencies and companies. Most water-level measurements were made during a 5-day period; therefore, measurements do not represent a "snapshot" of conditions at a specific time, nor do they necessarily coincide with the seasonal low water-level condition.

Florida↗

USGS2004

Estimating flood-peak discharge magnitudes and frequencies for rural streams in Illinois

Flood-peak discharge magnitudes and frequencies at streamflow-gaging sites were developed with the annual maximum series (AMS) and the partial duration series (PDS) in this study. Regional equations for both flood series were developed for estimating flood-peak discharge magnitudes at specified recurrence intervals of rural Illinois streams. The regional equations are techniques for estimating flood quantiles at ungaged sites or for improving estimated flood quantiles at gaged sites with short records or unrepresentative data. Besides updating at-site floodfrequency estimates using flood data up to water year 1999, this study updated the generalized skew coefficients for Illinois to be used with the Log-Pearson III probability distribution for analyzing the AMS, developed a program for analyzing the partial duration series with the Generalized Pareto probability distribution, and applied the BASINSOFT program with digital datasets in soil, topography, land cover, and precipitation to develop a set of basin characteristics. The multiple regression analysis was used to develop the regional equations with subsets of the basin characteristics and the updated at-site flood frequencies. Seven hydrologic regions were delineated using physiographic and hydrologic characteristics of drainage basins of Illinois. The seven hydrologic regions were used for both the AMS and PDS analyses. Examples are presented to illustrate the use of the AMS regional equations to estimate flood quantiles at an ungaged site and to improve flood-quantile estimates at and near a gaged site. Flood-quantile estimates in four regulated channel reaches of Illinois also are approximated by linear interpolation. Documentation of the flood data preparation and evaluation, procedures for determining the flood quantiles, basin characteristics, generalized skew coefficients, hydrologic region delineations, and the multiple regression analyses used to determine the regional equations are presented in the main text and appendixes.

Illinois↗

USGS2005

Feasibility of using benthic invertebrates as indicators of stream quality in Hawaii

Macroinvertebrates were collected from 19 sites on 14 streams on the island of Oahu and from 9 sites on 7 streams on the island of Kauai to evaluate associations between macroinvertebrate assemblages and environmental variables and to determine whether or not it would be feasible, in future studies, to develop macroinvertebrate metrics that would indicate stream quality based on the macroinvertebrate assemblages and/or components of the assemblages. The purpose of applying rapid bioassessment techniques is to identify stream quality problems and to document changes in stream quality. Samples were collected at 10 sites in 1999, 3 sites in 2000, and 5 sites in 2003 on Oahu and at 9 sites on Kauai in 2003. Additionally, multiple year and multiple reach samples were collected at 1 site on Oahu. Macroinvertebrates were collected primarily from boulder/cobble riffles or from the fastest flowing habitat when riffles were absent. Although most streams in Hawaii originate in mountainous, forested areas, the lower reaches often drain urban, agricultural, or mixed land-use areas. The macroinvertebrate community data were used to identify metrics that could best differentiate between sites according to levels of environmental impairment. Environmental assessments were conducted using land-use/land-cover data, bed-sediment and fish-tissue contaminant data, and reach-level environmental data using a calibration set of 15 sites. The final scores of the environmental assessments were used to classify the sites into three categories of impairment: mild, moderate or severe. A number of invertebrate metrics were then tested and calibrated to the environmental assessments scores. The individual metrics that were the best at discerning environmental assessments among the sites were combined into a multimetric benthic index of biotic integrity (BIBI). These metrics were: total invertebrate abundance, taxa richness, insect relative abundance, amphipod abundance, crayfish presence or absence, and native mountain shrimp presence or absence. Because this index is in the preliminary stage of development and additional 'pristine' sites need to be sampled and assessed to develop a more robust measure of biotic integrity, the index will be referred to as a Preliminary Hawaiian Benthic Index of Biotic Integrity (P-HBIBI). The P-HBIBI scores were then classified into three categories of impairment: mild, moderate, or severe. The P-HBIBI was then used to assess the remaining sites and classify them into impairment categories. The P-HBIBI was correlated (r2 = 0.72; p < 0.005) with a reduced environmental assessment determined without contaminants data. The results of this study suggest that the development of a reliable Hawaiian benthic index of biotic integrity (HBIBI), based on macroinvertebrate assemblages, is feasible; however, a much larger sample size, including more samples from 'pristine' sites and from the other islands, would be required.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

Application of a stream-aquifer model to Monument Creek for development of a method to estimate transit losses for reusable water, El Paso County, Colorado

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities, the Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the El Paso County Water Authority, began a study in 2004 to (1) apply a stream-aquifer model to Monument Creek, (2) use the results of the modeling to develop a transit-loss accounting program for Monument Creek, (3) revise the existing transit-loss accounting program for Fountain Creek to incorporate new water-management strategies and allow for incorporation of future changes in water-management strategies, and (4) integrate the two accounting programs into a single program with a Web-based user interface. The purpose of this report is to present the results of applying a stream-aquifer model to the Monument Creek study reach. Transit losses were estimated for reusable-water flows in Monument Creek that ranged from 1 to 200 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) and for native streamflows that ranged from 0 to 1,000 ft 3 /s. Transit losses were estimated for bank-storage, channel-storage, and evaporative losses. The same stream-aquifer model used in the previously completed (1988) Fountain Creek study was used in the Monument Creek study. Sixteen model nodes were established for the Monument Creek study reach, defining 15 subreaches. Channel length, aquifer length, and aquifer width for the subreaches were estimated from available topographic and geologic maps. Thickness of alluvial deposits and saturated thickness were estimated using lithologic and water-level data from about 100 wells and test holes in or near the Monument Creek study reach. Estimated average transmissivities for the subreaches ranged from 2,000 to 12,000 feet squared per day, and a uniform value of 0.20 was used for storage coefficient. Qualitative comparison of recorded and simulated streamflow at the downstream node for the calibration and verification simulations indicated that the two streamflows compared reasonably well. No adjustments were made to the model parameters. Differences between recorded and simulated streamflow volumes for all calibration and verification simulations ranged from about –8.8 to 7.5 percent; the total error for all simulations was about –0.7 percent. The model was used to estimate bank-storage losses for 10 to 15 native streamflows for each reusable-water flow of 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50, 100, and 200 ft 3 /s. Then the 10 to 15 bank-storage loss values were used in least-squares linear regression to estimate a relation between bank-storage loss and native streamflow for each of the 12 reusable-water flow rates. The 12 regression relations then were used to develop “look-up” tables of bank-storage loss for reusable-water flows ranging from 1 to 200 ft 3 /s (in 1-ft 3 /s increments). Additional model simulations indicated that (1) when the ratio of downstream native streamflow to upstream native streamflow was less than 1, bank-storage loss generally increased and (2) when the ratio of downstream native streamflow to upstream native streamflow was larger than 1, bank-storage loss generally decreased. These results were used to develop a bank-storage loss adjustment factor based on the ratio of native streamflow at the downstream node to native streamflow at the upstream node. The model also was used to estimate a recovery period, which is the length of time needed for the bank-storage loss to return to the stream. The recovery period was 1 day for six subreaches; 2 days for four subreaches; between 3 and 12 days for four subreaches; and 28 days for one subreach. Channel-storage losses are about 10 percent of the reusable-water flow for most of the subreaches, except for two subreaches, where the channel-storage losses are about 20 percent, and one subreach, where the losses are about 30 percent, owing to the greater channel lengths. Evaporative losses were estimated by the use of monthly pan-evaporation data and the incremental increase in stream width resulting from any reusable-water flows. Monthly pan-evaporation data were converted to a daily rate. The daily rate, when multiplied by the stream-width increase (in feet) that results from reusable-water flow and by the subreach length (in miles) gives the daily evaporative loss in cubic feet per second.

Colorado↗

USGS2007

Chronology of postglacial eruptive activity and calculation of eruption probabilities for Medicine Lake volcano, northern California

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

California↗

USGS2008

Modeling to Predict Escherichia coli at Presque Isle Beach 2, City of Erie, Erie County, Pennsylvania

The Lake Erie beaches in Pennsylvania are a valuable recreational resource for Erie County. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) at monitored beaches in Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa., occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters resulting in potentially unsafe swimming conditions and prompting beach managers to post public advisories or to close beaches to recreation. To supplement the current method for assessing recreational water quality (E. coli concentrations from the previous day), a predictive regression model for E. coli concentrations at Presque Isle Beach 2 was developed from data collected during the 2004 and 2005 recreational seasons. Model output included predicted E. coli concentrations and exceedance probabilities--the probability that E. coli concentrations would exceed the standard. For this study, E. coli concentrations and other water-quality and environmental data were collected during the 2006 recreational season at Presque Isle Beach 2. The data from 2006, an independent year, were used to test (validate) the 2004-2005 predictive regression model and compare the model performance to the current method. Using 2006 data, the 2004-2005 model yielded more correct responses and better predicted exceedances of the standard than the use of E. coli concentrations from the previous day. The differences were not pronounced, however, and more data are needed. For example, the model correctly predicted exceedances of the standard 11 percent of the time (1 out of 9 exceedances that occurred in 2006) whereas using the E. coli concentrations from the previous day did not result in any correctly predicted exceedances. After validation, new models were developed by adding the 2006 data to the 2004-2005 dataset and by analyzing the data in 2- and 3-year combinations. Results showed that excluding the 2004 data (using 2005 and 2006 data only) yielded the best model. Explanatory variables in the 2005-2006 model were log10 turbidity, bird count, and wave height. The 2005-2006 model correctly predicted when the standard would not be exceeded (specificity) with a response of 95.2 percent (178 out of 187 nonexceedances) and correctly predicted when the standard would be exceeded (sensitivity) with a response of 64.3 percent (9 out of 14 exceedances). In all cases, the results from predictive modeling produced higher percentages of correct predictions than using E. coli concentrations from the previous day. Additional data collected each year can be used to test and possibly improve the model. The results of this study will aid beach managers in more rapidly determining when waters are not safe for recreational use and, subsequently, when to close a beach or post an advisory.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Alluvial Diamond Resource Potential and Production Capacity Assessment of Ghana

In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by both diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in 'conflict' diamonds while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was to assess the alluvial diamond resource endowment and current production capacity of the alluvial diamond-mining sector in Ghana. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields. The production capacity of the sector was estimated using a formulaic expression of the number of workers reported in the sector, their productivity, and the average grade of deposits mined. This study estimates that there are approximately 91,600,000 carats of alluvial diamonds remaining in both the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields: 89,000,000 carats in the Birim and 2,600,000 carats in the Bonsa. Production capacity is calculated to be 765,000 carats per year, based on the formula used and available data on the number of workers and worker productivity. Annual production is highly dependent on the international diamond market and prices, the numbers of seasonal workers actively mining in the sector, and environmental conditions, which influence seasonal farming.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Global mineral resource assessment: porphyry copper assessment of Mexico: Chapter A in Global mineral resource assessment

Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about distributions of mineral deposits in the Earth’s crust. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in Mexico was done as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000; (2) provide a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. The assessment was conducted using a three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993). Delineation of permissive tracts primarily was based on distributions of mapped igneous rocks related to magmatic arcs that formed in tectonic settings associated with subduction boundary zones. Using a GIS, map units were selected from digital geologic maps based on lithology and age to delineate twelve permissive tracts associated with Jurassic, Laramide (~90 to 34 Ma), and younger Tertiary magmatic arcs. Stream-sediment geochemistry, mapped alteration, regional aeromagnetic data, and exploration history were considered in conjunction with descriptive deposit models and grade and tonnage models to guide estimates. The 12 permissive tracts delineated for this assessment are grouped by age (Jurassic-Early Cretaceous, Laramide (~90 to 34 Ma), Tertiary) and range in size from ~3,000 to 184,000 km 2 . Probabilistic estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits were made for 10 tracts. A qualitative discussion is included for one Jurassic tract that extends into the U.S. from northern Mexico, and a preliminary outline of the northernmost part of a Tertiary tract that continues well to the south of Mexico is included in summary figures for reference. This assessment estimates that 39 undiscovered deposits contain an arithmetic mean estimate of ~144 million metric tons of copper or more in ten tracts for which probabilistic estimates were made, in addition to 21 porphyry copper deposits that contain identified resources of ~52 million metric tons of copper. Approximately 70 percent of the estimated mean undiscovered copper resources are associated with permissive tracts that contain identified resources; the remaining estimated resources are associated with permissive tracts with no reported porphyry copper resources. In addition to copper, the mean expected values of undiscovered byproduct resources predicted by the simulation are ~4 million metric tons of molybdenum, ~48 thousand metric tons of silver, and 4 thousand metric tons of gold. The probability associated with these arithmetic means is on the order of 30 percent. Median expected amounts of metals predicted by the simulations may be ~50 percent lower than mean estimates, and in some cases, zero. For tracts that contain identified resources, the ratios of undiscovered to identified copper resources indicate that: Jurassic-Early Cretaceous tracts MX-J1 and MX-J2 contain fewer estimated undiscovered copper resources (ratios <1) than identified resources; Laramide tract MX-L1 may contain significantly more copper than has been identified; Laramide tract MX-L2, the tract that contains most of the known deposits in Mexico, including the world-class deposits at Cananea and La Caridad, may contain about as much copper, molybdenum, and silver in undiscovered deposits and more gold than has been identified; Tertiary tracts MX-T1 and MX-T2, where no porphyry copper deposits are known, may contain undiscovered deposits; Tertiary tract MX-T3 may contain about three times more copper than has been identified; and Permissive tracts with no known deposits (MX-J3, MX-J5, MX-L3, MX-T1, MX-T2) contain approximately 30 percent of the total estimated undiscovered copper resources. Most porphyry copper exploration in Mexico focused on the exposed northern parts of the Laramide arc. This assessment suggests that the exposed and shallowly buried (<1 km) parts of the Laramide and Tertiary arcs delineated as permissive tracts are more likely to contain undiscovered deposits than are older (Jurassic-Early Cretaceous) arc segments. Interest in gold has prompted exploration of historical precious metal prospects and small mines in Mexico, some of which may represent high-sulfidation epithermal systems overlying or adjacent to porphyry copper systems. This report includes a brief overview of porphyry copper deposits in Mexico, a description of the assessment process used, a summary of results, and appendixes. Appendixes A through K contain summary information for each tract, as follows: location, the geologic feature assessed, the rationale for tract delineation, tables and descriptions of known deposits and significant prospects, exploration history, model selection, rationale for the estimates, assessment results, and references. The accompanying digital map files (shapefiles) provide permissive tract outlines, assessment results, and data for deposits and prospects in a GIS format (appendix L).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Potash: a global overview of evaporate-related potash resources, including spatial databases of deposits, occurrences, and permissive tracts

Potash is mined worldwide to provide potassium, an essential nutrient for food crops. Evaporite-hosted potash deposits are the largest source of salts that contain potassium in water-soluble form, including potassium chloride, potassium-magnesium chloride, potassium sulfate, and potassium nitrate. Thick sections of evaporitic salt that form laterally continuous strata in sedimentary evaporite basins are the most common host for stratabound and halokinetic potash-bearing salt deposits. Potash-bearing basins may host tens of millions to more than 100 billion metric tons of potassium oxide (K 2 O). Examples of these deposits include those in the Elk Point Basin in Canada, the Pripyat Basin in Belarus, the Solikamsk Basin in Russia, and the Zechstein Basin in Germany. This report describes a global, evaporite-related potash deposits and occurrences database and a potash tracts database. Chapter 1 summarizes potash resource history and use. Chapter 2 describes a global potash deposits and occurrences database, which contains more than 900 site records. Chapter 3 describes a potash tracts database, which contains 84 tracts with geology permissive for the presence of evaporite-hosted potash resources, including areas with active evaporite-related potash production, areas with known mineralization that has not been quantified or exploited, and areas with potential for undiscovered potash resources. Chapter 4 describes geographic information system (GIS) data files that include (1) potash deposits and occurrences data, (2) potash tract data, (3) reference databases for potash deposit and tract data, and (4) representative graphics of geologic features related to potash tracts and deposits. Summary descriptive models for stratabound potash-bearing salt and halokinetic potash-bearing salt are included in appendixes A and B, respectively. A glossary of salt- and potash-related terms is contained in appendix C and a list of database abbreviations is given in appendix D. Appendix E describes GIS data files, and appendix F is a guide to using the geodatabase.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Seismic-sequence stratigraphy and geologic structure of the Floridan aquifer system near "Boulder Zone" deep wells in Miami-Dade County, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Miami-Dade Water and Sewer Department, acquired, processed, and interpreted seismic-reflection data near the North and South District “Boulder Zone” Well Fields to determine if geologic factors may contribute to the upward migration of injected effluent into that upper part of the Floridan aquifer system designated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as an underground source of drinking water. The depth of the Boulder Zone at the North and South District “Boulder Zone” Well Fields ranges from about 2,750 to 3,300 feet below land surface (ft bls), whereas overlying permeable zones used as alternative drinking water supply range in depth from about 825 to 1,580 ft bls at the North and South District “Boulder Zone” Well Fields. Seismic-sequence stratigraphy and geologic structures imaged on seismic-reflection profiles created for the study describe the part of the Floridan aquifer system overlying and within the Boulder Zone. Features of the Floridan aquifer system underlying the Boulder Zone were not studied because seismic-reflection profiles acquired near the North and South District “Boulder Zone” Well Fields lacked adequate resolution at such depths. Stratigraphic analysis of seismic-reflection data collected from the study area was mainly applied to the Floridan aquifer system and used to identify four provisional seismic sequences, which extend vertically from near the base of the Floridan aquifer system upward to the lower part of the intermediate confining unit. These four seismic sequences compose a framework in which each sequence includes a major permeable unit of the Floridan aquifer system; from shallowest to deepest, these units are the Upper Floridan aquifer, Avon Park permeable zone, uppermost major permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer, and Boulder Zone. The relations between seismic-sequence stratigraphy and hydrostratigraphy allow for detailed mapping of permeable zones and semiconfining units of the Floridan aquifer system at a level of resolution never before accomplished using well data alone. In addition to the preceding seismic-reflection analysis, interpretation of geophysical well log data from four effluent injection wells at the North District “Boulder Zone” Well Field delineated a narrow karst collapse structure beneath the injection facility that extends upward about 900 ft from the top of the Boulder Zone to about 125 ft above the top of the uppermost major permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer. No karst collapse structures were identified in the seismic-reflection profiles acquired near the North District “Boulder Zone” Well Field. However, karst collapse structures at the level of the lowermost major permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer at the South District “Boulder Zone” Well Field are present at three locations, as indicated by seismic-reflection data acquired in the C–1 Canal bordering the south side of the injection facility. Results from the North District “Boulder Zone” Well Field well data indicate that a plausible hydraulic connection between faults and stratiform permeability zones may contribute to the upward transport of effluent, terminating above the base of the deepest U.S. Environmental Protection Agency designated underground source of drinking water at the North District “Boulder Zone” Well Field.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities for streams in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, determined the magnitude of flood flows at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) at streamgages in Massachusetts and from these data developed equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged locations in the State. Flood magnitudes were determined for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEPs at 220 streamgages, 125 of which are in Massachusetts and 95 are in the adjacent States of Connecticut, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. AEP flood flows were computed for streamgages using the expected moments algorithm weighted with a recently computed regional skewness coefficient for New England. Regional regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitude of floods for selected AEP flows at ungaged sites from 199 selected streamgages and for 60 potential explanatory basin characteristics. AEP flows for 21 of the 125 streamgages in Massachusetts were not used in the final regional regression analysis, primarily because of regulation or redundancy. The final regression equations used generalized least squares methods to account for streamgage record length and correlation. Drainage area, mean basin elevation, and basin storage explained 86 to 93 percent of the variance in flood magnitude from the 50- to 0.2-percent AEPs, respectively. The estimates of AEP flows at streamgages can be improved by using a weighted estimate that is based on the magnitude of the flood and associated uncertainty from the at-site analysis and the regional regression equations. Weighting procedures for estimating AEP flows at an ungaged site on a gaged stream also are provided that improve estimates of flood flows at the ungaged site when hydrologic characteristics do not abruptly change. Urbanization expressed as the percentage of imperviousness provided some explanatory power in the regional regression; however, it was not statistically significant at the 95-percent confidence level for any of the AEPs examined. The effect of urbanization on flood flows indicates a complex interaction with other basin characteristics. Another complicating factor is the assumption of stationarity, that is, the assumption that annual peak flows exhibit no significant trend over time. The results of the analysis show that stationarity does not prevail at all of the streamgages. About 27 percent of streamgages in Massachusetts and about 42 percent of streamgages in adjacent States with 20 or more years of systematic record used in the study show a significant positive trend at the 95-percent confidence level. The remaining streamgages had both positive and negative trends, but the trends were not statistically significant. Trends were shown to vary over time. In particular, during the past decade (2004–2013), peak flows were persistently above normal, which may give the impression of positive trends. Only continued monitoring will provide the information needed to determine whether recent increases in annual peak flows are a normal oscillation or a true trend. The analysis used 37 years of additional data obtained since the last comprehensive study of flood flows in Massachusetts. In addition, new methods for computing flood flows at streamgages and regionalization improved estimates of flood magnitudes at gaged and ungaged locations and better defined the uncertainty of the estimates of AEP floods.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2019

Spatial and temporal variability of harmful algal blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, May through November 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE), completed a study to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, over a range of environmental conditions at various time scales (hours to months). A better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacteria and microcystin will inform sampling and management strategies for Milford Lake and for other lakes with cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB) issues throughout the Nation. Spatial and temporal variability were assessed in the upstream one-third of Milford Lake (designated as “Zone C” by KDHE) during May through November 2016 using a combination of time-lapse photography, continuous water-quality monitors, discrete phytoplankton, chlorophyll, and microcystin samples, and spatially dense near-surface data. Combined, these data were used to characterize variability of cyanobacterial abundance, algal biomass, and microcystin concentrations in Zone C of Milford Lake before, during, and after cyanobacterial blooms in 2016. Temporal patterns were evaluated during May through November 2016 using time-lapse photography at six locations in Zone C and at a single point location (the Wakefield site) using a combination of discrete and continuously measured water-quality data (including the cyanobacterial pigment phycocyanin). Based on time-lapse photography, CyanoHABs developed in Zone C of Milford Lake in early July and persisted through the end of November. Bloom accumulations at individual sites were dependent on wind direction. After a change in wind direction, it would take about 1 day for accumulations to become visible at different locations. During periods with low wind, accumulations were widespread and visible at all sites. Cyanobacteria were absent from the algal community at the Wakefield site in late May and were a minor component of the community in June; however, by mid-July the cyanobacteria were dominant and remained dominant until early November. Chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site were estimated using sensor-measured phycocyanin based on regression models developed for Zone C. Regression-estimated concentrations likely are more indicative of seasonal patterns in algal biomass (as indicated by chlorophyll concentrations) and microcystin than discretely collected samples because regression-estimated data have a much higher temporal resolution. Based on regression estimates, algal biomass and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site steadily increased from May through August. After August, concentrations decreased but remained relatively high compared to May and June. Daily chlorophyll maxima were as much as 400 times higher than daily minima, and daily microcystin maxima were as many as several orders of magnitude higher than daily minima. The extreme variability in algal biomass and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site reflects the development and dissipation of blooms, as indicated by the time-lapse cameras. Based on regression-estimated microcystin concentrations, the KDHE watch and warning thresholds for microcystin were exceeded during mid-June through late November. Exceedance of KDHE advisory thresholds often changed from no advisory to watch or warning over the course of the day because of the variability in algal biomass and microcystin concentrations caused by bloom development and dissipation. Continuous water-quality monitors may be useful in informing public-health decisions in lakes with variable CyanoHAB conditions; however, site-specific models need to be developed, and best practices for using continuous water-quality monitors to inform CyanoHAB management strategies need to be established. Spatial data were collected on May 26, July 21, and September 15, 2016, using a combination of a boat-mounted array and discrete water-quality samples analyzed for phytoplankton community composition and chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations. Spatial patterns were described using regression-estimated chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations. During the May 26, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances were relatively low throughout Zone C and did not exceed KDHE guidance values compared to spatial surveys on July 21 and September 15. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations were indicative of higher algal biomass uplake in Zone C, and decreases in the downlake direction towards Zone B. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations also were more variable uplake than downlake. Based on regression estimates, microcystin concentrations did not exceed KDHE guidance values anywhere in Zone C on May 26. Spatial patterns in microcystin throughout Zone C did not match patterns in regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations, likely because the algal community was not dominated by cyanobacteria at most locations in May. During the July 21, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances in Zone C exceeded KDHE guidance values in 50 percent of samples. The algal community in Zone C was dominated by cyanobacteria at all locations except two, where cyanobacteria codominated with diatoms. Both locations where cyanobacteria and diatoms codominated were north of the causeway. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations were indicative of higher algal biomass north of the causeway and on the eastern shore of Zone C. On July 21, algal biomass did not always decrease in the downlake direction. There was a decrease just south of the causeway but an increase shortly after with higher concentrations into Zone B. Spatial maps indicated changes in algal distribution at a 0.5-meter depth, with algae moving to the central part of the lake north of the causeway and along the eastern shore south of the causeway. Most regression-estimated microcystin concentrations on July 21 exceeded KDHE guidance values, reflecting the pervasive bloom conditions in Zone C during this period. Spatial patterns in regression-estimated microcystin concentrations throughout Zone C were similar to patterns seen in discrete samples and regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations, with higher concentrations north of the causeway and on the east shore of Zone C. During the September 15, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances did not exceed KDHE guidance values. The algal community north of the causeway was dominated by diatoms. The algal community throughout the rest of Zone C was dominated by cyanobacteria. Of regression-estimated microcystin concentrations on September 15, 80 percent did not exceed KDHE guidance values. Spatial patterns indicated northward movement of the cyanobacterial bloom consistent with a wind shift noted the previous day. On September 14, winds were generally from the north to northwest, shifting to the south by September 15. There was a northward progression of chlorophyll and microcystin during the spatial surveys. These data, along with the camera data and spatial and wind data from May and July, indicate that wind can be a major driver of the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Milford Lake and likely plays a role in the extent and duration of near-shore accumulations.

Kansas↗

USGS2021

Reply to “comment on ‘which earthquake accounts matter?’ by Susan E. Hough and Stacey S. Martin” by David J. Wald

We thank David Wald ( Wald, 2021 ; henceforth, W21) for his interest in our recent article ( Hough and Martin, 2021 ; henceforth, HM21). Although different perspectives are vital in science, we are concerned that W21 misrepresents HM21 as an oblique criticism of the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, calling for HM21 to be retracted. Readers who are interested in the issues raised by HM21 and the statements made by us therein are referred to that article. In this brief reply, we respond to specific accusations made by W21 and return to the focus of HM21, calling attention to the extent to which macroseismic data sets and inferences drawn from them can be shaped by a lack of representation among individuals whose observations are available to science. HM21 never questioned the benefits of the community science DYFI project to science. HM21 noted, however, and we reiterate here, that community science also potentially benefits the community. Whether or not it matters for science, if participation in community science projects is unrepresentative across socioeconomic groups, it underscores the need for the scientific community to be proactive in its efforts to reach out to groups that have been underserved by current outreach and education programs. We appreciate this opportunity to continue the important conversation about representation.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2008

The Inskip Formation, the Harmony Formation, and the Havallah sequence of Northwestern Nevada — An interrelated Paleozoic assemblage in the home of the Sonoma orogeny

An area between the towns of Winnemucca and Battle Mountain in northwestern Nevada, termed the arkosic triangle, includes the type areas of the middle to upper Paleozoic Inskip Formation and Havallah sequence, the Upper Devonian to Mississippian Harmony Formation, the Sonoma orogeny, and the Golconda thrust. According to an extensive body of scientific literature, the Havallah sequence, a diverse assemblage of oceanic rocks, was obducted onto the continent during the latest Permian or earliest Triassic Sonoma orogeny by way of the Golconda thrust. This has been the most commonly accepted theory for half a century, often cited but rarely challenged. The tectonic roles of the Inskip and Harmony Formations have remained uncertain, and they have never been fully integrated into the accepted theory. New, and newly interpreted, data are incompatible with the accepted theory and force comprehensive stratigraphic and tectonic concepts that include the Inskip and Harmony Formations as follows: middle to upper Paleozoic strata, including the Inskip, Harmony, and Havallah, form an interrelated assemblage that was deposited in a single basin on an autochthonous sequence of Cambrian, Ordovician, and lowest Silurian strata of the outer miogeocline. Sediments composing the Upper Devonian to Permian sequence entered the basin from both sides, arkosic sands, gravel, limestone olistoliths, and other detrital components entered from the west, and quartz, quartzite, chert, and other clasts from the east. Tectonic activity was expressed as: (1) Devonian uplift and erosion of part of the outer miogeocline; (2) Late Devonian depression of the same area, forming a trough, probably fault-bounded, in which the Inskip, Harmony, and Havallah were deposited; (3) production of intraformational and extrabasinal conglomerates derived from the basinal rocks; and (4) folding or tilting of the east side of the depositional basin in the Pennsylvanian. These middle to upper Paleozoic deposits were compressed in the Jurassic, causing east-verging thrusts in the eastern part of the depositional basin (Golconda thrust) and west-verging thrusts and folds in the western part. Hypotheses involving a far-traveled allochthon that was obducted from an ocean or back-arc basin are incompatible with modern observations and concepts.

Nevada↗

USGS2007

Ground-Water Flow Model for the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer, Spokane County, Washington, and Bonner and Kootenai Counties, Idaho

This report presents a computer model of ground-water flow in the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie (SVRP) aquifer in Spokane County, Washington, and Bonner and Kootenai Counties, Idaho. The aquifer is the sole source of drinking water for more than 500,000 residents in the area. In response to the concerns about the impacts of increased ground-water withdrawals resulting from recent and projected urban growth, a comprehensive study was initiated by the Idaho Department of Water Resources, the Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Geological Survey to improve the understanding of ground-water flow in the aquifer and of the interaction between ground water and surface water. The ground-water flow model presented in this report is one component of this comprehensive study. The primary purpose of the model is to serve as a tool for analyzing aquifer inflows and outflows, simulating the effects of future changes in ground-water withdrawals from the aquifer, and evaluating aquifer management strategies. The scale of the model and the level of detail are intended for analysis of aquifer-wide water-supply issues. The SVRP aquifer model was developed by the Modeling Team formed within the comprehensive study. The Modeling Team consisted of staff and personnel working under contract with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, personnel working under contract with the Washington Department of Ecology, and staff of the U.S. Geological Survey. To arrive at a final model that has the endorsement of all team members, decisions on modeling approach, methodology, assumptions, and interpretations were reached by consensus. The ground-water flow model MODFLOW-2000 was used to simulate ground-water flow in the SVPR aquifer. The finite-difference model grid consists of 172 rows, 256 columns, and 3 layers. Ground-water flow was simulated from September 1990 through September 2005 using 181 stress periods of 1 month each. The areal extent of the model encompasses an area of approximately 326 square miles. For the most part, the model extent coincides with the 2005 revised extent of the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie aquifer as defined in a previous report. However, the model excludes Spirit and Hoodoo Valleys because of uncertainties about the ground-water flow directions in those valleys and the degree of hydraulic connection between the valleys and northern Rathdrum Prairie. The SVRP aquifer is considered to be a single hydrogeologic unit except in Hillyard Trough and the Little Spokane River Arm. In those areas, a continuous clay layer divides the aquifer into an upper, unconfined unit and a lower, confined unit. The model includes all known components of inflows to and outflows from the aquifer. Inflows to the SVRP aquifer include (1) recharge from precipitation, (2) inflows from tributary basins and adjacent uplands, (3) subsurface seepage and surface overflows from lakes that border the aquifer, (4) flow from losing segments of the Spokane River to the aquifer, (5) return percolation from irrigation, and (6) effluent from septic systems. Outflows from the SVRP aquifer include (1) ground-water withdrawals from wells, (2) flow from the aquifer to gaining segments of the Spokane River, (3) aquifer discharge to the Little Spokane River, and (4) subsurface outflow from the lower unit at the western limit of the model area near Long Lake. These inflow and outflow components are represented in the model by using MODFLOW-2000 packages. The parameter-estimation program PEST was used to calibrate the SVRP aquifer model. PEST implements a nonlinear least-squares regression method to estimate model parameters so that the differences between measured and simulated quantities are minimized with respect to an optimal criterion. Calibration data include 1,573 measurements of water levels and 313 measurements of streamflow gains and losses along segments of the Spokane and Little Spokane Rivers. Model parameters estimated during calib

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Relations of Principal Components Analysis Site Scores to Algal-Biomass, Habitat, Basin-Characteristics, Nutrient, and Biological-Community Data in the West Fork White River Basin, Indiana, 2001

Data were gathered from July through September 2001 at 34 randomly selected sites in the West Fork White River Basin, Indiana for algal biomass, habitat, nutrients, and biological communities (fish and invertebrates). Basin characteristics (drainage area and land use) and biological-community attributes and metric scores were determined for the basin of each sampling site. Yearly Principal Components Analysis site scores were calculated for algal biomass (periphyton and seston). The yearly Principal Components Analysis site scores for the first axis (PC1) were related, using Spearman's rho, to the seasonal algal-biomass, basin-characteristics, habitat, seasonal nutrient, biological-community attribute and metric score data. The periphyton PC1 site score, which was most influenced by ash-free dry mass, was negatively related to one (percent closed canopy) of nine habitat variables examined. Of the 43 fish-community attributes and metric scores examined, the periphyton PC1 was positively related to one fish-community attribute (percent tolerant). Of the 21 invertebrate-community attributes and metric scores examined, the periphyton PC1 was positively related to one attribute (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) index) and one metric score (EPT index metric score). The periphyton PC1 was not related to the five basin-characteristic or 12 nutrient variables examined. The seston PC1 site score, which was most influenced by particulate organic carbon, was negatively related to two of the 12 nutrient variables examined: total Kjeldahl nitrogen (July) and total phosphorus (July). Of the 43 fish-community attributes and metric scores examined, the seston PC1 was negatively related to one attribute (large-river percent). Of the 21 invertebrate-community attributes and metric scores examined, the seston PC1 was negatively related to one attribute (EPT-to-total ratio). The seston PC1 was not related to the five basin-characteristics or nine habitat variables examined. To understand how the choice of sampling sites might have affected the results, an analysis of the drainage area and land use was done. The 34 randomly selected sites in the West Fork White River Basin in 2001 were skewed to small streams. The dominant mean land use of the sites sampled was agriculture, followed by forest, and urban. The values for nutrients (nitrate, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) and chlorophyll a (periphyton and seston) were compared to published U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) values for Aggregate Nutrient Ecoregions VI and IX and Level III Ecoregions 55 and 72. Several nutrient values were greater than the 25th percentile of the published USEPA values. Chlorophyll a (periphyton and seston) values were either greater than the 25th percentile of published USEPA values or extended data ranges in the Aggregate Nutrient Ecoregions and Level III Ecoregions. If the proposed values for the 25th percentile were adopted as nutrient water-quality criteria, many samples in the West Fork White River Basin would have exceeded the criteria.

Indiana↗

USGS2011

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: Pilot-point theory, guidelines, and research directions

Pilot points have been used in geophysics and hydrogeology for at least 30 years as a means to bridge the gap between estimating a parameter value in every cell of a model and subdividing models into a small number of homogeneous zones. Pilot points serve as surrogate parameters at which values are estimated in the inverse-modeling process, and their values are interpolated onto the modeling domain in such a way that heterogeneity can be represented at a much lower computational cost than trying to estimate parameters in every cell of a model. Although the use of pilot points is increasingly common, there are few works documenting the mathematical implications of their use and even fewer sources of guidelines for their implementation in hydrogeologic modeling studies. This report describes the mathematics of pilot-point use, provides guidelines for their use in the parameter-estimation software suite (PEST), and outlines several research directions. Two key attributes for pilot-point definitions are highlighted. First, the difference between the information contained in the every-cell parameter field and the surrogate parameter field created using pilot points should be in the realm of parameters which are not informed by the observed data (the null space). Second, the interpolation scheme for projecting pilot-point values onto model cells ideally should be orthogonal. These attributes are informed by the mathematics and have important ramifications for both the guidelines and suggestions for future research.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of streambed scour at bridges over tidal waterways in Alaska

The potential for streambed scour was evaluated at 41 bridges that cross tidal waterways in Alaska. These bridges are subject to several coastal and riverine processes that have the potential, individually or in combination, to induce streambed scour or to damage the structure or adjacent channel. The proximity of a bridge to the ocean and water-surface elevation and velocity data collected over a tidal cycle were criteria used to identify the flow regime at each bridge, whether tidal, riverine, or mixed, that had the greatest potential to induce streambed scour. Water-surface elevations measured through at least one tide cycle at 32 bridges were correlated to water levels at the nearest tide station. Asymmetry of the tidal portion of the hydrograph during the outgoing tide at 12 bridges indicated that riverine flows were stored upstream of the bridge during the tidal exchange. This scenario results in greater discharges and velocities during the outgoing tide compared to those on the incoming tide. Velocity data were collected during outgoing tides at 10 bridges that experienced complete flow reversals, and measured velocities during the outgoing tide exceeded the critical velocity required to initiate sediment transport at three sites. The primary risk for streambed scour at most of the sites considered in this study is from riverine flows rather than tidal fluctuations. A scour evaluation for riverine flow was completed at 35 bridges. Scour from riverine flow was not the primary risk for six tidally-controlled bridges and therefore not evaluated at those sites. Field data including channel cross sections, a discharge measurement, and a water-surface slope were collected at the 35 bridges. Channel instability was identified at 14 bridges where measurable scour and or fill were noted in repeated surveys of channel cross sections at the bridge. Water-surface profiles for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability discharge were calculated by using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System model, and scour depths were calculated using methods recommended by the Federal Highway Administration. Computed contraction-scour depths were greater than 2.0 feet at five bridges and computed pier-scour depths were 4.0 feet or greater at 15 bridges. The potential for streambed scour by both coastal and riverine processes at the bridges considered in this study were evaluated, ranked, and summed to determine a cumulative risk factor for each bridge. Possible factors that could mitigate the scour risks were investigated at 22 bridges that had high individual or cumulative rankings. Mitigating factors such as piers founded in bedrock, deep pier foundations relative to scour depths, and lack of observed scour during field measurements were documented for 13 sites, but additional study and monitoring is needed to better quantify the streambed scour potential for nine sites. Three bridges prone to being affected by storm surges will require more data collection and possibly complex hydrodynamic modeling to accurately quantify the streambed scour potential. Continuous monitoring of water-surface and streambed elevation at one or more piers is needed for two bridges to better understand the tidal and riverine influences on streambed scour.

Alaska↗