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Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama↗

The spatial-temporal relationship of blue-winged teal to domestic poultry: Movement state modeling of a highly mobile avian influenza host

1. Migratory waterfowl facilitate long distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens and are increasingly recognized as contributing to the geographic spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). AIV are globally distributed and have the potential to produce highly contagious poultry disease, economically impact both large-scale and backyard poultry producers, and raise the specter of epidemics and pandemics in human populations. 2. Because migratory waterfowl behavior varies across multiple spatial and temporal scales, the timing and distribution of wild bird AIV introductions to poultry are also heterogeneous in time and space. To help reduce economic impacts to the poultry industry and enable poultry producers to better anticipate when and where poultry outbreaks may occur, it is critically important to consider the movement ecology of the waterfowl species transporting and transmitting AIV. 3. We used telemetry for a geographically widespread and common AIV host, blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ; BWTE), to model reservoir host movement states with respect to backyard and commercial poultry facilities in the United States. Our modeling framework enabled us to estimate wild bird proximity to poultry facilities while concurrently assessing the influence of poultry facilities on BWTE movement state transition. Our primary objective was to estimate the likelihood of duck and poultry overlap by estimating when and where BWTE were geographically closest to poultry. 4. Synthesis and applications . Migratory waterfowl facilitate dispersal of the avian influenza viruses that cause highly contagious poultry disease. Movement analysis of blue-winged teal indicates that spatio-temporal overlap between wild birds and poultry facilities varies by season, the poultry type produced (e.g., turkey, chicken), and if the facility is a commercial or backyard operation. These findings are broadly applicable to disease ecology research and can be applied by poultry producers to improve bio-security, enhance poultry management, and prioritize disease surveillance efforts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Patterns and controls on nitrogen cycling of biological soil crusts

Biocrusts play a significant role in the nitrogen [N ] cycle within arid and semi-arid ecosystems, as they contribute major N inputs via biological fixation and dust capture, harbor internal N transformation processes, and direct N losses via N dissolved, gaseous and erosional loss processes (Fig. 1). Because soil N availability in arid and semi-arid ecosystems is generally low and may limit net primary production (NPP), especially during periods when adequate water is available, understanding the mechanisms and controls of N input and loss pathways in biocrusts is critically important to our broader understanding of N cycling in dryland environments. In particular, N cycling by biocrusts likely regulates short-term soil N availability to support vascular plant growth, as well as long-term N accumulation and maintenance of soil fertility. In this chapter, we review the influence of biocrust nutrient input, internal cycling, and loss pathways across a range of biomes. We examine linkages between N fixation capabilities of biocrust organisms and spatio-temporal patterns of soil N availability that may influence the longer-term productivity of dryland ecosystems. Lastly, biocrust influence on N loss pathways such as N gas loss, leakage of N compounds from biocrusts, and transfer in wind and water erosion are important to understand the maintenance of dryland soil fertility over longer time scales. Although great strides have been made in understanding the influence of biocrusts on ecosystem N cycling, there are important knowledge gaps in our understanding of the influence of biocrusts on ecosystem N cycling that should be the focus of future studies. Because work on the interaction of N cycling and biocrusts was reviewed in Belnap and Lange (2003), this chapter will focus primarily on research findings that have emerged over the last 15 years (2000-2015).

Book chapter↗

Thermal habitat use of lake trout in Lake Erie

Understanding the thermal habitat use of fish populations is vital for effective rehabilitation or management, particularly in the face of climate change, given limited thermal tolerances of some species. In Lake Erie, lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) rehabilitation efforts by means of stocking have been ongoing for four decades. However, high water temperatures and lengthening periods of stratification may be hindering reestablishment efforts by contributing to unfavorable conditions for spawning and natural recruitment. We used acoustic telemetry to quantify weekly temperature occupancy of adult lake trout in Lake Erie and evaluated whether temperature occupancy differed relative to fish total length and sex. We found that lake trout occupied water temperatures similar to temperatures occupied by other Great Lakes lake trout populations during summer stratification. During fall, lake trout in Lake Erie occupied warmer temperatures than Lake Huron populations but similar temperatures to Lake Ontario populations. Occupied temperatures decreased with increasing body size during a 7-week period of mid- to late-summer stratification, but not during early summer or fall. Male and female lake trout did not differ in weekly temperature occupancy during any season. These findings reveal similarities with successfully reproducing populations, which suggest that adult temperature occupancy is unlikely to be a major impediment to natural recruitment in Lake Erie.

Lake Erie↗

Iron oxide minerals in dust-source sediments from the Bodélé Depression, Chad: Implications for radiative properties and Fe bioavailability of dust plumes from the Sahara

Atmospheric mineral dust can influence climate and biogeochemical cycles. An important component of mineral dust is ferric oxide minerals (hematite and goethite) which have been shown to influence strongly the optical properties of dust plumes and thus affect the radiative forcing of global dust. Here we report on the iron mineralogy of dust-source samples from the Bodélé Depression (Chad, north-central Africa), which is estimated to be Earth’s most prolific dust producer and may be a key contributor to the global radiative budget of the atmosphere as well as to long-range nutrient transport to the Amazon Basin. By using a combination of magnetic property measurements, Mössbauer spectroscopy, reflectance spectroscopy, chemical analysis, and scanning electron microscopy, we document the abundance and relative amounts of goethite, hematite, and magnetite in dust-source samples from the Bodélé Depression. The partition between hematite and goethite is important to know to improve models for the radiative effects of ferric oxide minerals in mineral dust aerosols. The combination of methods shows (1) the dominance of goethite over hematite in the source sediments, (2) the abundance and occurrences of their nanosize components, and (3) the ubiquity of magnetite, albeit in small amounts. Dominant goethite and subordinate hematite together compose about 2% of yellow-reddish dust-source sediments from the Bodélé Depression and contribute strongly to diminution of reflectance in bulk samples. These observations imply that dust plumes from the Bodélé Depression that are derived from goethite-dominated sediments strongly absorb solar radiation. The presence of ubiquitous magnetite (0.002–0.57 wt%) is also noteworthy for its potentially higher solubility relative to ferric oxide and for its small sizes, including PM < 0.1 μm. For all examined samples, the average iron apportionment is estimated at about 33% in ferric oxide minerals, 1.4% in magnetite, and 65% in ferric silicates. Structural iron in clay minerals may account for much of the iron in the ferric silicates. We estimate that the mean ferric oxides flux exported from the Bodélé Depression is 0.9 Tg/yr with greater than 50% exported as ferric oxide nanoparticles (<0.1 μm). The high surface-to-volume ratios of ferric oxide nanoparticles once entrained into dust plumes may facilitate increased atmospheric chemical and physical processing and affect iron solubility and bioavailability to marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

Aeolian Research↗

Precaldera mafic magmatism at Long Valley, California: Magma-tectonic siting and incubation of the Great Rhyolite System

The iconic volcanic center at Long Valley has released ∼820 km 3 of rhyolite in at least 110 eruptions. From 2.2 Ma until 0.23 Ma, products were exclusively rhyolitic, and ∼ 700 km 3 were high-silica rhyolite severely depleted in Sr, Ba, and Eu. The rhyolitic interval was preceded by an interval from 3.9 to 2.6 Ma with numerous basalt-andesite-dacite eruptions accompanied by no rhyolite at all. We have now mapped the circumcaldera products of this interval, defined 107 eruptive units, characterized them all chemically and petrographically, and dated many by 40 Ar/ 39 Ar. Here we display and describe them by sector around the caldera, interpret the nature of the transcrustal magma system that eventuated in the 35-km-wide Long Valley granite-rhyolite pluton, and analyze regional tectonic factors that did or did not contribute to siting the system. Nine Miocene (12–6 Ma) eruptive units close to Long Valley were followed by a Pliocene flare-up that released >300 mafic eruptions in a SW–NE swath 170 km long, centered across the later site of Long Valley. The basalts and their fractionates are intraplate alkalic products dominated by a continental lithosphere that had long been fluxed by Mesozoic subduction. Tertiary arc volcanism had not impinged on the area of Long Valley. Volumes estimated for the 107 Neogene precaldera eruptive units (only 40 of which exceeded 0.1 km 3 ) total ∼ 27 km 3 ± 50%—only ∼3% of the subsequent volume of rhyolite erupted. Such a volume of high-silica rhyolite with ultra-low Sr and Eu is not a product of partial melting but requires as proximate parent a leucogranitic crystal mush that is itself the upper level of a long-lived plutonic reservoir that extends to the lower crust. The 27 km 3 of Neogene magma that erupted was a small contingent of the mantle-derived basaltic flux needed to energize (and contribute its fractionated melt to) a 30-km-deep compositionally graded crustal column, which culminated in ∼10,000 km 3 of granitoid mush from which 820 km 3 of Quaternary high-silica rhyolitic melt escaped and erupted. Pliocene basaltic eruptions ceased at ∼2.6 Ma, probably because the basaltic flux intensified sufficiently to render the mushy upper crust impenetrable. The 2.6–2.2 Ma quiescent interval represented culmination of thermal activation of the plutonic column and refinement of its leucogranitic mushy upper layer, from which extreme melts escaped for the next 2 Myr. The Pliocene mafic swath crosses the Sierran rangefront fault zone coincident with a left-stepping extensional reentrant that also began developing at ∼3 Ma. Moreover, Long Valley overlies a dextral offset in the initial Sr-isotope 0.706 line, which may reflect the rifted or attenuated edge of Proterozoic crust and mantle lithosphere. Concatenation of these three influences may account for siting of intensified edge-focused magmatism that produced the great Quaternary pluton.

California↗

Introduction to special issue on gas hydrate in porous media: Linking laboratory and field‐scale phenomena

The proliferation of drilling expeditions focused on characterizing natural gas hydrate as a potential energy resource has spawned widespread interest in gas hydrate reservoir properties and associated porous media phenomena. Between 2017 and 2019, a Special Section of this journal compiled contributed papers elucidating interactions between gas hydrate and sediment based on laboratory, numerical modeling, and field studies. Motivated mostly by field observations in the northern Gulf of Mexico and offshore Japan, several papers focus on the mechanisms for gas hydrate formation and accumulation, particularly with vapor phase gas, not dissolved gas, as the precursor to hydrate. These studies rely on numerical modeling or laboratory experiments using sediment packs or benchtop micromodels. A second focus of the Special Section is the role of fines in inhibiting production of gas from methane hydrate, controlling the distribution of hydrate at a pore scale, and influencing the bulk behavior of seafloor sediments. Other papers fill knowledge gaps related to the physical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments and advance new approaches in coupled thermal-mechanical modeling of these sediments during hydrate dissociation. Finally, one study addresses the long-standing question about the fate of methane hydrate at the molecular level when CO2 is injected into natural reservoirs under hydrate-forming conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Long-term, high-resolution permafrost monitoring reveals coupled energy balance and hydrogeologic controls on talik dynamics near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Québec, Canada)

Rising temperatures in the Arctic and subarctic are driving the rapid thaw of permafrost by reducing permafrost cooling, increasing active layer thickness, and promoting talik formation. In this study, the cyrohydrogeology of a permafrost mound located within the discontinuous permafrost zone near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Québec, Canada) is characterized through the analysis of a dataset covering more than two decades of monitoring. This dataset captures a high degree of interannual variability in air temperature and ground thermal conditions, as well as the formation and closure of a supra-permafrost talik. Data indicate that variable saturation and advective heat transport directly contribute to the expansion and contraction of the talik. Data further indicate the presence of two distinct thermo-hydrologic settings resulting from differences in surface conditions, as well as subsurface thermal and flow regimes. The first, found at the top of the mound feature, is characterized by very low moisture contents (< 0.05 m 3 /m 3 ), while the second, found at the side of the mound feature, shows higher annual moisture contents that strongly influence the dynamics of heat and groundwater flow. The data were synthesized into a detailed conceptual model of the cyrohydrogeological dynamics that highlights the important role of hydrogeological characterization and long-term datasets in understanding the effects of groundwater flow on seasonal frost and permafrost dynamics. Specifically, the results presented here show that in the absence of long-term datasets, longer-period transient phenomena such as talik opening and closure may be misrepresented as uni-directional feedback loops, as opposed to highly-dynamic temporary phenomena.

Nunavik, Quebec↗

Mineralization, alteration, and hydrothermal metamorphism of the ophiolite-hosted Turner-Albright sulfide deposit, southwestern Oregon

The Turner-Albright sulfide deposit, part of the Josephine ophiolite, formed on and below the seafloor during Late Jurassic volcanism at a back arc spreading center. Ore fluids were probably localized by faults which were active on the seafloor at the time of sulfide deposition. The uppermost massive sulfide formed on the seafloor at hydrothermal vents, similar to sulfide-depositing hot springs on modern spreading centers. The bulk of the sulfide mineralization formed below the seafloor within olivine basalt hyaloclastite erupted near the time of mineralization. Infiltration of hydrothermal fluid into the hyalo-clastite altered the rock to quartz + Fe-chlorite and quartz + sericite + Fe-chlorite. Intense alteration resulted in replacement of the protolith by quartz + sulfide. The fluid responsible for the hydrothermal alteration was evolved seawater with low p H and Mg and high Fe. Sulfide δ 534 S values average 4.7‰ and indicate contribution of sulfur from both basalt and seawater sulfate. The average value of sulfide δ 34 S and the difference between sulfide and contemporaneous seawater sulfate δ 34 S values are similar to ophiolite-hosted sulfide deposits in Cyprus. Chlorite-rich hydrothermally altered basalt has δ 18 O values of 3.0–6.8‰ due to high-temperature (250°–350°C) reaction with a seawater-derived ore fluid. Quartz in silicified basalt has higher δ 18 O values of 12.3–15.5‰, probably reflecting lower-temperature recrystallization of amorphous silica formed during initial alteration of basalt. Mudstone and clinopyroxene basalt above the sulfide horizons were not altered by the ore-transporting hydrothermal fluid, but these rocks were hydrothermally metamorphosed by altered seawater heated by deep circulation into hot oceanic crust. This subseafloor metamorphism produced a mineral assemblage typical of prehnite-pumpellyite facies metamorphism. Exchange with altered seawater increased the whole-rock δ 18 O of the basalts to values of 9.4–11.2‰.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Factors Affecting 14C Ages of Lacustrine Carbonates: Timing and Duration of the Last Highstand Lake in the Lahontan Basin

Two processes contribute to inaccurate 14C age estimates of carbonates precipitated within the Lahontan basin, NevadaCalifornia: low initial 14C/C ratios in lake water (reservoir effect) and addition of modern carbon to calcium carbonate after its precipitation. The mast reliable set of 14C ages on carbonates from elevations > 1310 m in the Pyramid and Walker Lake subbasins indicate that lakes in all seven Lahontan subbasins coalesced ???14,200 14C yr B.P. forming Lake Lahontan. Lake Lahontan achieved its 1330-m highstand elevation by ???13,800 14 C yr B.P. and receded to 1310 m by ???13,700 14C yr B.P. Calculations, based on measured carbonate-accumulation rates, of the amount of time Lake Lahontan exceeded 1310 and 1330 m (500 and 50 yr) are consistent with this chronology. The timing of the Lake Lahontan highstand is of interest because of the linkage of highstand climates with proximity to the polar jet stream. The brevity of the Lahontan highstand is interpreted to indicate that the core of the southern branch of the polar jet stream remained only briefly over the Lahontan basin.

Quaternary Research↗

Impact of fog on California waterfowl flight activity: Historical and modern insights into effects post-Clean Air Act

Since establishment of the Clean Air Act in the early 1970s, occurrence of the dense ‘Tule Fog’, historically prevalent throughout winter across California’s Central Valley, has substantially reduced. At the same time, waterfowl body masses have generally increased. Flight is metabolically expensive, and fog visually and navigationally impairs birds in flight, likely causing them to remain aloft for longer than usual periods. If less fog results in less flight and reduced energy expenditure, then fewer winter Tule fog events could contribute to increased body masses of California waterfowl since the mid-1980’s. Therefore, we aimed to assess the relationship between waterfowl flight and fog occurrence/density with historic (1991–93) and modern (2015–23) waterfowl tracking data in the Central Valley of California (CCV). Historic tracking data showed that the probability of flight increased with increasing fog density. Birds were significantly more likely to fly in fog than when there was no fog and most likely to fly in heavy fog . Modern data showed similar responses to fog with flight occurring significantly more during dawn fog events. This relationship between improved waterfowl body mass and fewer fog events may provide an opportunity to redirect scarce funding to focus on other population requirements such as improving habitats for nesting, molting and brood rearing that are currently lacking. Unanticipated benefits of the Clean Air Act should stand as a strong recommendation to maintaining this Act into the future.

California↗

Geochemistry and fluxes of gases from hydrothermal features at Newberry Volcano, Oregon, USA

We present the chemical and isotopic compositions of gases and fluxes of CO 2 from the hydrothermal features of Newberry Volcano, a large composite volcano located in Oregon's Cascade Range with a summit caldera that hosts two lakes, Paulina and East Lakes. Gas samples were collected from 1982 to 2021 from Paulina Hot Springs (PHS) on the shore of Paulina Lake, East Lake Hot Springs (ELHS) on the shore of East Lake, and Obsidian Flow Gas Seep (OFGS), an area of diffuse gas emissions. Surveys of CO 2 flux were conducted in 2020 at OFGS (1400 m 2 ) and East Lake (4.1 km 2 ). Gases from all three sites were CO 2 -rich (≥79 mol% in dry gas) but showed considerable compositional variability over time due to interaction with ground and surface water. An increase in H 2 S concentrations and decline in CO 2 /H 2 S ratios in ELHS gases coincided with a drop in East Lake water level from 1999 to 2021. ELHS and OFGS gases were high in CH 4 relative to PHS and the δ 13 C of CH 4 values for ELHS gases (−72.2 and − 63.6 ‰) reflected a predominantly biogenic origin. The dominant source of N 2 and Ar in PHS, ELHS, and OFGS samples was likely groundwater. Helium isotopic ratios (6.47 to 8.02 R c /R a ) support a persistent source of magmatic He beneath Newberry caldera and consistently high values measured at OFGS and PHS relative to ELHS suggest distinct fluid flow paths from depth to the surface features. The δ 13 C of CO 2 and CO 2 / 3 He values (−8.9 to −5.35 ‰ and 1.3 × 10 9 to 4.6 × 10 10 , respectively) measured in gases reflect contributions of CO 2 from both mantle and crustal sources. Measured CO 2 fluxes at OFGS and East Lake ranged from 1 to 8808 and < 1 to 364 g m −2 d −1 , respectively. A CO 2 emission rate of 0.5 t d −1 was calculated for OFGS. The CO 2 emission rate estimated for East Lake was 30 t d −1 and when compared to prior estimates, reflects steady-state lake degassing. An enhanced geochemical monitoring plan, including annual sampling of gases at ELHS, OFGS, and PHS for geochemical analysis, installation of a continuous lake-level monitoring station at East Lake, and annual CO 2 flux surveys at OFGS, would provide valuable background data and insights into any precursor volcanic activity. Integrating geochemical data with data from the real-time seismic and GPS network at Newberry Volcano could better resolve and interpret potential changes in its magma-hydrothermal system.

Oregon↗

Geochemical and isotopic (Nd-Pb-Sr-O) variations bearing on the genesis of volcanic rocks from Vesuvius, Italy

Alkaline volcanism produced by Monte Somma-Vesuvius volcano includes explosive plinian and subplinian activity in addition to effusive lava flows. Pumice, scoria, and lava (150 samples) exhibit major- and trace-element gradients as a function of SiO2 (58.9-47.2 wt%) and MgO (0-7.8 wt%); Mg value are ???50. Internally gradational chemical groups or cycles are distinguished by age: (1) 25 000 to 14 000 yr B.P.; (2) 8000 yr B.P. to A.D. 79; and (3) A.D. 79 to 1944. A small number of lavas, dikes and scora were also analysed from the Somma formation (~ 35 000 to 25 000 yr B.P.). Within each group, contents of Na2O + K2O increas with decreasing MgO along distinct rocks. Nb/Y values are variable from 0.66 to 3.14 (at SiO2 ??? 50 wt%) generally in the range of alkaline and ultra-alkaline rocks. Variations in contents of some majro elements (e.g., P and Ti), and trace elements (e.g., Th, Nb, Ta, Zr, Hf, Pb, La, and Sc), as well as contrasting trends in ratios of various elements (e.g., Ta/Yb, Hf/U, Th/Ta, Th/Hf, Th/Yb, etc.) are also generally consistent with the group subdivisions. For example, Th/Hf increases from ??? 5 to ??? 10 with decreasing age for the Vesuvius system as a whole, yielding similar compositions in the least evolved rocks (low-silica, high-MgO, imcompatible element-poor) erupted at the end of each cycle. Internal variations within individual eruptions also systematically changed generally towards a common mafic composition at the end of each cycle, thus reflecting the dominanit volume in the magma chamber. At the start of a new eruptive cycle, the rocks are relatively enriched in incompatible elements; younger groups also contain higher abundances than other groups. N-MORB-normalized multielement diagrams exhibit selective enrichments of Sr, K, Rb, Th, and the light rare-earth elements; deep Nb and Ta negative anomalies commonly seen in rocks generated at orogenic margins are absent in the light rare-earth elements; deep Nb and Ta netgative anomalies commonly seen in rocks generated at orogenic margins are absent in our samples. Sr isotopic compositions are known to be variable within some of the units, in agreement with our data (87Sr/86Sr ~ 0.70699 to 0.70803) and with contributions from several isotopic components. Isotopic compositions for ??18O (7.3 to 10.2%), Pb for mineral separates and whole rocks (206Pb/204Pb ~ 18.947 to 19.178, 207Pb/204/Pb ~ 15.617 to 15.769, 208Pb/204Pb ~38.915 to 39.345), and Nd (143Nd ~ 0.51228 to 0.51251) also show variability. Oxygen isotope data show that pumices have higher ??18O values than cogenetic lavas, and that ??18O values and SiO2 are correlated. Radiogenic and stable isotope data plot within range of isotopic compositions for the Roman comagmatic province. Fractional crystallization cannot account for the radiogenic isotopic compositions of the Vesuvius magmas. We favor instead the combined effects of heterogeneous magma sources, together with isotopic exchange near the roof of the magma chamber. We suggest that metasomatized continental mantle lithosphere is the principal source of the magmas. This kind of enriched mantle was melted and reactivated in an area of continental extension (incipient rift setting) without direct reliance on contemporaneous subduction processes but possibly with input from mantle sources that resemble those that produce ocean island basalts.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Considering science needs to deliver actionable science

Conservation practitioners, natural resource managers, and environmental stewards often seek out scientific contributions to inform decision-making. This body of science only becomes actionable when motivated by decision makers considering alternative courses of action. Many in the science community equate addressing stakeholder science needs with delivering actionable science. However, not all efforts to address science needs deliver actionable science, suggesting that the synonymous use of these two constructs (delivering actionable science and addressing science needs) is not trivial. This can be the case when such needs are conveyed by people who neglect decision makers responsible for articulating a priority management concern and for specifying how the anticipated scientific information will aid the decision-making process. We argue that the actors responsible for articulating these science needs and the process used to identify them are decisive factors in the ability to deliver actionable science, stressing the importance of examining the provenance and the determination of science needs. Guided by a desire to enhance communication and cross-literacy between scientists and decision makers, we identified categories of actors who may inappropriately declare science needs (e.g., applied scientists with and without regulatory affiliation, external influencers, reluctant decision makers, agents in place of decision makers, and boundary organization representatives). We also emphasize the importance of, and general approach to, undertaking needs assessments or gap analyses as a means to identify priority science needs. We conclude that basic stipulations to legitimize actionable science, such as the declaration of decisions of interest that motivate science needs and using a robust process to identify priority information gaps, are not always satisfied and require verification. To alleviate these shortcomings, we formulated practical suggestions for consideration by applied scientists, decision makers, research funding entities, and boundary organizations to help foster conditions that lead to science output being truly actionable.

Conservation Biology↗

The peregrine falcon in Arizona: Habitat utilization and management recommendations

The peregrine falcon once bred in significant numbers in Arizona. Good documentation is available for specific breeding sites and an additional 20 general locations. This report, based on the published literature, an extensive personal contact survey, an aerial habitat inventory (over 124 hours air time), and ground visits to over 300 locations, provides information on habitat preferences and management practices which can contribute to the bird's survival. In seeking to identify the habitat preferences of the falcon, many site description factors were examined. Those traits which appeared common to most recent Arizona sites (and therefore most useful in evaluating habitat) were: elevation less than 9,000 feet, cliffs tall or very tall, cliffs extensive, topographic relief high, and surface water readily available. All recent sites are in extensive canyon systems or in extensive mountain ranges. Using a habitat evaluation key derived from the traits common to known breeding sites, all cliff regions in Arizona and the Navajo Indian Reservation were flown and evaluated for suitability. Nineteen falcon eyries located in subsequent ground visits were all in areas previously ranked acceptable or better. Many management alternatives are discussed: management of information on breeding sites, habitat preservation, controlling disruptive human activities, and enhancing productivity through the creation of suitable breeding ledges, providing pesticide free prey, or direct reintroductions. Given their privacy (and an increasingly pesticide free environment) the peregrine falcon will likely exist indefinitely in suitable areas across Arizona.

Institute for Raptor Studies Research Reports↗

The depositional history of three freshwater lakes in north central Florida: Brooklyn Lake, Levy's Prairie, and Cowpen Lake

Florida has approximately 7800 lakes that are heavily concentrated in the north-central part of the state—a mantled karst terrain. Although much research has been conducted in Florida’s lakes, there is not much information on the sedimentary infill. The focus of this research is to define the sedimentary infill of three closely spaced lakes (Brooklyn Lake, Levys Prairie, and Cowpen Lake) in north-central Florida and determine the relative importance of the various sedimentary inputs and their associated processes. Interlake lithostratigraphy comparison helped determine if they experienced a similar depositional infilling history or a unique one. Twenty-three vibracores were taken (12 in Brooklyn Lake; 8 in Levys Prairie; 3 in Cowpen Lake) from which 331 sub-samples were analyzed for grain size, carbonate content, LOI index for total organic content, pollen content, mineralogy, and internal structures. Five sedimentary facies were defined in Brooklyn Lake, four in Levys Prairie, and three in Cowpen Lake. Using lithologic cross sections a depositional scenario was developed for each lake. Subaqueous and subaerial environments in conjunction with groundwater fluctuation and subsidence activity are key factors in lake development. The comparison of sediment infill of these three lakes reveals that Brooklyn Lake and Cowpen Lake are most similar in sediment facies content, basin morphology and the extent of subsidence depicted in the developmental scenarios, whereas, Levys Prairie is much different in sediment facies and basin morphology. A doubling in pine pollen from Brooklyn Lake and Levys Prairie indicate a change from drier to a wetter environment. This change is present in Sheelar Lake and Mud Lake and carbon14 dated at 7200 yrs BP and 5070+/-150 yrs BP (Watts and Stuiver, 1980, Watts, 1969 respectively). This suggests that Brooklyn Lake and Levys Prairie are older than 7200 yrs BP. Sediment infill from Brooklyn Lake, Levys Prairie and Cowpen Lake is conducive to understanding the depositional processes and environments that contributed to their development. Based on results and evidence presented in this study, it can be expected that lake development in a karst terrain will include subaqueous and subaerial intervals, and times of subsidence that can be recorded in the lake sediment.

Florida↗

Ecology of selected marine communities in Glacier Bay: Zooplankton, forage fish, seabirds and marine mammals

We studied oceanography (including primary production), secondary production, small schooling fish (SSF), and marine bird and mammal predators in Glacier Bay during 1999 and 2000. Results from these field efforts were combined with a review of current literature relating to the Glacier Bay environment. Since the conceptual model developed by Hale and Wright (1979) ‘changes and cycles’ continue to be the underlying theme of the Glacier Bay ecosystem. We found marked seasonality in many of the parameters that we investigated over the two years of research, and here we provide a comprehensive description of the distribution and relative abundance of a wide array of marine biota. Glacier Bay is a tidally mixed estuary that leads into basins, which stratify in summer, with the upper arms behaving as traditional estuaries. The Bay is characterized by renewal and mixing events throughout the year, and markedly higher primary production than in many neighboring southeast Alaska fjords (Hooge and Hooge, 2002). Zooplankton diversity and abundance within the upper 50 meters of the water column in Glacier Bay is similar to communities seen throughout the Gulf of Alaska. Zooplankton in the lower regions of Glacier Bay peak in abundance in late May or early June, as observed at Auke Bay and in the Gulf of Alaska. The key distinction between the lower Bay and other estuaries in the Gulf of Alaska is that a second smaller peak in densities occurs in August. The upper Bay behaved uniformly in temporal trends, peaking in July. Densities had begun to decline in August, but were still more than twice those observed in that region in May. The highest density of zooplankton observed was 17,870 organisms/m3 in Tarr Inlet during July. Trends in zooplankton community abundance and diversity within the lower Bay were distinct from upper-Glacier Bay trends. Whereas the lower Bay is strongly influenced by Gulf of Alaska processes, local processes are the strongest influence in the upper-Bay. We identified 55 species of fish during this study (1999 and 2000) from beach seines, mid-water trawls, and rod and line catches. The diversity of physical, oceanographic, and glacial chronological conditions within Glacier Bay contribute a suite of factors that influence the distribution and abundance of fish. Accordingly, we observed significant differences in the abundance and distribution of fish within the Bay. Most significantly, abundance and diversity (primarily juvenile fish including walleye Pollock, eelblennies, and capelin) were greatest at the head of both the east and west arms where zooplankton abundance was greatest – in close proximity to tidewater glaciers and freshwater runoff. All of Glacier Bay and Icy Strait were surveyed hydroacoustically for plankton and fish during June 1999 surveys. Acoustically determined forage biomass was concentrated in relatively few important areas such as Pt. Adolphus, Berg Bay, on the Geikie-Scidmore shelf, around the Beardslee/Marble islands, and the upper arms of Glacier Bay. Forage biomass (primarily small schooling fish and euphausiids) was concentrated in shallow, nearshore waters; 50 % of acoustic biomass was found at depths < 35m, 80 % of biomass at depths < 80m. During our sampling, high density patches of prey were very rare, and less than 8 % of the area surveyed in Glacier Bay contained patch densities suitable (e.g., > 0.01 fish/m 3 ) for seabirds foraging on zooplankton and small schooling fish. Less than 1 % of the area contained patches suitable (e.g., >0.1 fish/m 3 ) for whales foraging on zooplankton and small schooling fish. High-density aggregations of 0.1-10 fish/m 3 were comprised mostly of schools containing capelin, pollock, herring or euphausiids (0.1-1 kg/m 3 ). During predator surveys (1999-2000), we observed 63 species of birds and 7 species of marine mammals. Seasonal distribution and abundance of these “apex” predators was highly variable by species. Glacier Bay supports high numbers of seabirds and marine mammals that consume zooplankton and small schooling fish. Nearshore areas had higher densities of both birds and marine mammals. Several areas, such as Pt. Adolphus, Berg Bay, on the Geikie-Scidmore shelf, the Beardslee/Marble islands, and the upper arms of Glacier Bay were focal points of small schooling fish and zooplankton consuming marine birds and mammals. Comparisons between surveys and a prior study (1991) suggested that the assemblage of birds and marine mammals in the Bay is undergoing change. Most notable was a clear decline in Brachyramphus spp. murrelets while other apex species are increasing or remaining stable. It should be noted that many of the birds and mammals observed during this project, e.g. mergansers, do not forage on zooplankton and small schooling fish; rather they forage on benthic fish and sessile invertebrates. While distribution and sampling data for these marine predator species are valid, this study did not sample benthic fish and sessile invertebrates. Thus, recommendations made by this project should be interpreted as generally specific to the zooplankton/small schooling fish marine food web components of the Glacier Bay Ecosystem.

Alaska↗

Coral calcification and ocean acidification

Over 60 years ago, the discovery that light increased calcification in the coral plant-animal symbiosis triggered interest in explaining the phenomenon and understanding the mechanisms involved. Major findings along the way include the observation that carbon fixed by photosynthesis in the zooxanthellae is translocated to animal cells throughout the colony and that corals can therefore live as autotrophs in many situations. Recent research has focused on explaining the observed reduction in calcification rate with increasing ocean acidification (OA). Experiments have shown a direct correlation between declining ocean pH, declining aragonite saturation state (&Omega;arag), declining [CO32_] and coral calcification. Nearly all previous reports on OA identify &Omega;arag or its surrogate [CO32] as the factor driving coral calcification. However, the alternate &ldquo;Proton Flux Hypothesis&rdquo; stated that coral calcification is controlled by diffusion limitation of net H+ transport through the boundary layer in relation to availability of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The &ldquo;Two Compartment Proton Flux Model&rdquo; expanded this explanation and synthesized diverse observations into a universal model that explains many paradoxes of coral metabolism, morphology and plasticity of growth form in addition to observed coral skeletal growth response to OA. It is now clear that irradiance is the main driver of net photosynthesis (Pnet), which in turn drives net calcification (Gnet), and alters pH in the bulk water surrounding the coral. Pnet controls [CO32] and thus &Omega;arag of the bulk water over the diel cycle. Changes in &Omega;arag and pH lag behind Gnet throughout the daily cycle by two or more hours. The flux rate Pnet, rather than concentration-based parameters (e.g., &Omega;arag, [CO3 2], pH and [DIC]:[H+] ratio) is the primary driver of Gnet. Daytime coral metabolism rapidly removes DIC from the bulk seawater. Photosynthesis increases the bulk seawater pH while providing the energy that drives calcification and increases in Gnet. These relationships result in a correlation between Gnet and &Omega;arag, with both parameters being variables dependent on Pnet. Consequently the correlation between Gnet and &Omega;arag varies widely between different locations and times depending on the relative metabolic contributions of various calcifying and photosynthesizing organisms and local rates of carbonate dissolution. High rates of H+ efflux continue for several hours following the mid-day Gnet peak suggesting that corals have difficulty in shedding waste protons as described by the Proton Flux Model. DIC flux (uptake) tracks Pnet and Gnet and drops off rapidly after the photosynthesis-calcification maxima, indicating that corals can cope more effectively with the problem of limited DIC supply compared to the problem of eliminating H+. Predictive models of future global changes in coral and coral reef growth based on oceanic &Omega;arag must include the influence of future changes in localized Pnet on Gnet as well as changes in rates of reef carbonate dissolution. The correlation between &Omega;arag and Gnet over the diel cycle is simply the result of increasing pH due to photosynthesis that shifts the CO2-carbonate system equilibria to increase [CO32] relative to the other DIC components of [HCO3] and [CO2]. Therefore &Omega;arag closely tracks pH as an effect of Pnet, which also drives changes in Gnet. Measurements of DIC flux and H+ flux are far more useful than concentrations in describing coral metabolism dynamics. Coral reefs are systems that exist in constant disequilibrium with the water column.

Book chapter↗