SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Modeling Report”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources

USGS1985

Management of ground water and evolving hydrogeologic studies in New Jersey : a heavily urbanized and industrialized state in the northeastern United States

New Jersey is the most densely populated and one of the most industrialized states in the United States. An abundance of freshwater and proximity to major northeastern metropolitan centers has facilitated this development. Pumpage of freshwater from all aquifers in the State in 1980 was 730 million gallons per day (2.76 million cubic meters per day). Management and efficient development of the ground-water resources of the State are the responsibility of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Laws have been enacted and updated by the State legislature to manage water allocation and to control the disposal of hazardous wastes. Present resource management is guided by the New Jersey Water-Supply Master Plan of 1981. Funding for management activities is partially derived from the sale of state-approved bonds. Effective planning and regional management require accurate and up-to-date hydrologic information and analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Geological Survey, is conducting three intensive ground-water studies involving the collection and interpretation of hydrologic data to meet the urgent water-management needs of New Jersey. These studies are part of a long-term cooperative program and are funded through the Water-Supply Bond Act of 1981. They began in 1983 and are scheduled to be completed in 1988. The project areas are situated in the New Jersey part of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in and near Atlantic City, Camden, and South River. They range in size from 400 to 1,200 mil (1,040 to 3,120 km2). The studies are designed to define the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of the local ground-water systems. The results of these studies will enable the State to address more effectively major problems in these areas such as declining water levels, overpumping, saltwater intrusion, and ground-water contamination resulting from the improper disposal of hazardous wastes. Specific objectives of these studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are to (1) develop an accurate and up-to-date hydrogeologic data base, (2) design and implement a data-collection program and establish a computerized information management system, (3) refine the conceptualization of the ground-water flow system, and (4) define the geochemistry of the aquifer system by conducting a water-quality appraisal. The objectives are accomplished by standard hydrogeologic methods. Information concerning hydrogeologic framework, ground-water levels, water use, hydraulic characteristics, and water quality in the study areas is compiled from all available sources. Additional data needed are collected through well inventories, surface geophysical surveys, water-quality samplings, water-level measurements, and a well-drilling program. Interpretation of the flow system is based on the use of standard analytical techniques and digital flow modeling. Calibrated flow models will provide ground-water managers with a mechanism to develop and test regional water-supply strategies. Definition of the geochemistry of the aquifer system is accomplished through a variety of methods which depend on the problems and available data in the particular study area. The approach includes statistical analysis of water-quality data, reaction-path modeling, and determination of the movement of chemical constituents using analytical and numerical modeling techniques. A combined staff of 25 to 30 professionals and technicians from the New Jersey District office of the U.S. Geological Survey is committed to the three studies. The staff has specialists in geohydrology, numerical modeling, geochemistry, geophysics, and computer science. The findings of these studies will be published in data reports, interpretive reports, instructional manuals and journal articles.

New Jersey↗

USGS2006

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

Ecology↗

USGS2019

Semantically supported linked data mapping

Semantic technology based on the Resource Description Framework (RDF) modeling environment has introduced new data management capabilities that can lead to innovative cartographic techniques. This report describes research toward more semantically expressive linked geospatial data mapping, topics of research, and an avenue for further international collaboration.

Report↗

USGS1994

Publications of the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1899-1992

A list of publications of the water-resources investigations conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands was compiled. The report includes publications regarding water-resources information in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands released from 1899 to 1992. The publications are grouped into four categories: by author(s), by specific locations in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, by discipline of interest (ground water. surface water, water quality, floods and climate, geology, ground-water modeling, water-level contour maps, sediment, and water use), and by series or type of publication. Also a list of approved reports pending publication is included.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Mount Rainier National Park and Olympic National Park Elk Monitoring Program Annual Report 2010

Fiscal year 2010 was the third year of gathering data needed for protocol development while simultaneously implementing what is expected to be the elk monitoring protocol at Mount Rainier (MORA) and Olympic (OLYM) national parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN). Elk monitoring in these large wilderness parks relies on aerial surveys from a helicopter. Summer surveys are planned for both parks and are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance, sex and age composition, and distribution of migratory elk in high elevation trend count areas. Spring surveys are planned at Olympic National Park and are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance of resident and migratory elk on low-elevation winter ranges within surveyed trend count areas. An unknown number of elk is not detected during surveys. The protocol under development aims to estimate the number of missed elk by applying a model that accounts for detection bias. Detection bias in elk surveys in MORA will be estimated using a double-observer sightability model that was developed based on data from surveys conducted in 2008-2010. The model was developed using elk that were previously equipped with radio collars by cooperating tribes. That model is currently in peer review. At the onset of protocol development in OLYM there were no existing radio- collars on elk. Consequently double-observer sightability models have not yet been developed for elk surveys in OLYM; the majority of the effort in OLYM has been focused on capturing and radio collaring elk to permit the development of sightability models for application in OLYM. As a result, no estimates of abundance or composition are included in this annual report, only raw counts of the numbers of elk seen in surveys. At MORA each of the two trend count areas (North Rainier herd, and South Rainier herd) were surveyed twice. 290 and 380 elk were counted on the two replicates in the North Rainier herd, and 621 and 327 elk counted on the two replicate South Rainier counts. At Olympic National Park, each of three spring trend count areas was surveyed once in March 2010. 27 elk were observed in the South Fork Hoh trend count area, 137 elk were observed in the Hoh trend count area, and 131 elk were observed in the Queets trend count area. In September 2010, 18 elk were captured and fitted with radio collars as part of a contracted animal capture, eradication and tagging of animals (ACETA) operation. These animals will be available to contribute double-observer sightability data in future spring and summer surveys. There were no summer surveys for elk in OLYM in 2010.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Optimizing historical preservation under climate change—An overview of the optimal preservation model and pilot testing at Cape Lookout National Seashore

Adapting cultural resources to climate-change effects challenges traditional cultural resource decision making because some adaptation strategies can negatively affect the integrity of cultural resources. Yet, the inevitability of climate-change effects—even given the uncertain timing of those effects—necessitates that managers begin prioritizing resources for climate-change adaptation. Prioritization imposes an additional management challenge: managers must make difficult tradeoffs to achieve desired management outcomes related to maximizing the resource values. This report provides an overview of a pilot effort to integrate vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity), significance, and use potential metrics in a decision framework—the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model—to inform climate adaptation planning of a subset of buildings in historic districts (listed on the National Register of Historic Places) at Cape Lookout National Seashore. The OptiPres Model uses a numerical optimization algorithm to assess the timing and application of a portfolio of adaptation actions that could most effectively preserve an assortment of buildings associated with different histories, intended uses, and construction design and materials over a 30-year planning horizon. The outputs from the different budget scenarios, though not prescriptive, provide visualizations of and insights to the sequence and type of optimal actions and the changes to individual building resource values and accumulated resource values. Study findings suggest the OptiPres Model has planning utility related to fiscal efficiency by identifying a budget threshold necessary to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historical buildings while reducing vulnerability (collectively, the accumulated resource value). Specifically, findings identify that a minimum of the industry standard ($222,000 annually for the 17 buildings) is needed to maintain the current accumulated resource value. Additionally, results suggest that additional appropriations provided on regular intervals when annual appropriations are at the industry standard are nearly as efficient as annual appropriations at twice the rate of industry standards and increase the amount of accumulated resource values to nearly the same level. However, periodic increases in funding may increase the risks posed to buildings from the probability of a natural hazard (that is, damage or loss from a hurricane). Suggestions for model refinements include developing standardized cost estimations for adaptation actions based on square footage and building materials, developing metrics to quantify the historical integrity of buildings, integrating social values data, including additional objectives (such as public safety) in the model, refining vulnerability data and transforming the data to include risk assessment, and incorporating stochastic events (that is, hurricane and wind effects) into the model.

North Carolina↗

USGS2013

Moving forward with imperfect information

This chapter summarized the scope of what is known and not known about climate in the Southwestern United States. There is now more evidence and more agreement among climate scientists about the physical climate and related impacts in the Southwest compared with that represented in the 2009 National Climate Assessment (Karl, Melillo, and Peterson 2009). However, there remain uncertainties about the climate system, the complexities within climate models, the related impacts to the biophysical environment, and the use of climate information on decision making. Uncertainty is introduced in each step of the climate planning-an-response process--in the scenarios used to drive the climate models, the information used to construct the models, and the interpretation and use of the model' data for planning and decision making (Figure 19.1). There are server key challenge, drawn from recommendations of the authors of this report, that contribute to these uncertainties in the Southwest: - There is a dearth of climate observations at high elevations and on the lands of Native nations. - There is limited understanding of the influence of climate change on natural variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillations, Pacific Decadal Oscillation), extreme events (droughts, floods), and the marine layer align coastal California. - Climate models, downscaling, and resulting projection of the physical climate are imperfect. Representing the influence of the diverse topography of the Southwest on regional climate is a particular challenge. - The impacts of climate change on key components of the natural ecosystems (including species and terrestrial ecosystems) are ill-defined. - The adaptive capacity of decision-making entities and legal systems to handle climate impacts is unclear. This creates a challenge for identifying vulnerabilities to climate in the Southwest. - Regulation, legislation, and political and social responses too climate all play important roles in our ability to adapt to climate impacts and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. - Climate change is one of multiple stresses affecting the physical, biological, social, and economic systems of the Southwest, with population growth (and its related resource consumption, pollution, and land-sue changes) being particularly important.

Book chapter↗

USGS2000

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model; documentation of packages for simulating evapotranspiration with a segmented function (ETS1) and drains with return flow (DRT1)

Two new packages for the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water-flow model MODFLOW-2000 are documented. The new packages provide flexibility in simulating evapotranspiration and drain features not provided by the MODFLOW-2000 Evapotranspiration (EVT) and Drain (DRN) Packages. The report describes conceptualization of the packages, input instructions, listings and explanations of the source code, and example simulations. The new Evapotranspiration Segments (ETS1) Package allows simulation of evapotranspiration with a user-defined relation between evapotranspiration rate and hydraulic head. This capability provides a degree of flexibility not supported by the EVT Package, which has been available in MODFLOW since its initial release. In the ETS1 Package, the relation of evapotranspiration rate to hydraulic head is conceptualized as a segmented line between an evaporation surface, defined as the elevation where the evapotranspiration rate reaches a maximum, and an elevation located at an extinction depth below the evaporation surface, where the evapotranspiration rate reaches zero. The user supplies input to define as many intermediate segment endpoints as desired to define the relation of evapotranspiration rate to head between these two elevations. The EVT Package, in contrast, simulates evapotranspiration with a single linear function. The new Drain Return (DRT1) Package can be used to simulate the return flow of water discharged from a drain feature back into the ground-water system. The DRN Package, which has been available in MODFLOW since its initial release, does not have the capability to simulate return of flow. If the return-flow option of the DRT1 Package is selected, for each cell designated as a drain-return cell, the user has the option of specifying a proportion of the water simulated as leaving the ground-water system through the drain feature that is to be simulated as returning simultaneously to one other cell in the model.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Bayesian calibration of the 40K decay scheme with implications for 40K-based geochronology

The K/Ar and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronometers are based on the naturally occurring radionuclide 40 K. Their precision and accuracy are limited by uncertainties on the 40 K decay constants and, in the case of the 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronometer, the isotopic composition of neutron fluence monitors. To address these limitations, we introduce a Bayesian calibration of the 40 K decay scheme. We formulate robust priors for all model parameters including partial 40 K decay constants, 238 U and 235 U decay constants, and age offset parameters to account for phenomena that can perturb apparent U-Pb and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages. We then harness a set of complementary 40 Ar/ 39 Ar, 238 U/ 206 Pb, and 235 U/ 207 Pb data from well- characterized geological samples with ages from 1.919 ka to 2000 Ma to derive Bayesian estimates of the 40 K decay constants. Posterior values for the partial 40 K decay constants are λ β - "> λ β - = (4.9252 ± "> ± 0.0054) × "> × 10 −10 yr −1 , λ β + "> λ β + = (5.6658 ± "> ± 0.1543) × "> × 10 −15 yr −1 , λ EC ∗ "> λ EC0 = (5.7404 ± "> ± 0.0053) × "> × 10 −11 yr −1 , and λ EC 0 "> λ EC0 = (4.9060 ± "> ± 0.2942) × "> × 10 −13 yr −1 (uncertainties reported at the 68 % (1 σ "> σ ) credible interval). These combine to a total 40 K decay constant λ tot "> λ tot = (5.5042 ± "> ± 0.0054) × "> × 10 −10 yr −1 . Model estimates of the 238 U and 235 U decay constants are statistically indistinguishable from those reported by Jaffey et al. (1971) . Posterior values of the 40 K decay constants and the 40 Ar*/ 40 K isotopic composition of Fish Canyon sanidine (FCs) define a K/Ar FCs age of 28.183 ± "> ± 0.017 Ma (1 σ "> σ ). Significantly, Bayesian calibrated 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages align with astronomically tuned ages throughout the Cenozoic and with 238 U/ 206 Pb and 235 U/ 207 Pb ages in the Mesozoic, Paleozoic, and Proterozoic, as well as having comparable precision to the 238 U/ 206 Pb method. Thus, Bayesian calibration of the 40 K decay scheme and the K/Ar age of FCs reconciles the 40 Ar/ 39 Ar, U-Pb, and astronomical chronometers.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2025

Contributions of erosion, deposition, and human activities to a change in sand storage in the bed of San Francisco Bay, California, 1980s to 2010s

This study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides estimates of the change in sand storage in bed sediments from the 1980s to 2010s in the San Francisco Bay area, California. The study is part of a larger project called “Research to Understand Impacts of Bay Sand Mining on Sand Transport in San Francisco Bay and the Outer Coast” that has the goal of providing information for the California Coastal Conservancy to inform decision making regarding sand mining activities. Information from this study will contribute to the sand budget for the San Francisco Bay system by accounting for sand made available by erosion of bay sediment and sequestered by deposition in the bay. Sediment budgets for estuaries typically account for change in sediment storage in the bed without discriminating for sediment size. However, the physics of mud and sand erosion, deposition, and transport differ. Sediment budgets that treat mud and sand separately give a more complete understanding of the system, including how human activities related to sediment size, such as sand mining, affect the system. We used bathymetric change analysis in combination with a three-dimensional model to generate estimates of net change in sand storage within the San Francisco Bay floor. We document sediment volume change from a 1980s bathymetric surface to a 2010s bathymetric surface, in combination with information on the sand content of the bed sediment derived from sediment cores and surface samples from six different sediment studies, to estimate the net change in sand volume in the bed of San Francisco Bay. This analysis includes areas heavily affected by human activities (such as sand mining, dredging, and sediment disposal) as well as regions more representative of natural transport processes. Overall, the sediment bed of San Francisco Bay is losing sand. Across the total area surveyed in San Francisco Bay, including areas affected by natural processes, oyster shell beds, and human activities, a net loss of about 17 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) of sand from the sediment bed occurred from the 1980s to 2010s, at a rate of about 0.8 Mm 3 per year. For the period of this study, sand loss from bed level changes in permitted sand-lease mining areas (about 11 Mm 3 ) accounts for about two-thirds of the total sand loss throughout the study area. It is important to consider potential uncertainty bounds when interpreting these findings. A key part of the report is an assessment of the uncertainties in our estimates of sand volumes. We estimate that variability in modeled sand content values of Bay floor sediments could result in an uncertainty of approximately 25 percent of the net sand volume change. Even larger uncertainty amounts may be associated with uncertainty in the systematic errors in the bathymetric surveys. Further refining estimates of uncertainty in bathymetric change is important in guiding the use of this study. The results presented here can fill a critical gap that may enable the creation of the first comprehensive sand budget of San Francisco Bay.

California↗

USGS2005

Hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the Kansas River, northeast Kansas, November 2001–August 2002, and simulation of ammonia assimilative capacity and bacteria transport during low flow

Large concentrations of ammonia and densities of bacteria have been detected in reaches of the Kansas River in northeast Kansas during low streamflow conditions, prompting the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) to list these reaches as water-quality limited with respect to ammonia and fecal coliform bacteria. Sources for ammonia and bacteria in the watershed consist of wastewater-treatment facilities (WWTFs) and agricultural and urban runoff. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with KDHE, conducted an investigation of the Kansas River to characterize hydrologic and water-quality conditions and to simulate ammonia assimilative capacity and bacteria transport during low streamflow. This report characterizes the water-quality conditions, documents the calibration of a two-dimensional water-quality model, and presents results of hypothetical simulations of existing and future WWTFs discharging to the Kansas River during low streamflow. Water samples were collected during low streamflow conditions at 50 sampling sites along and near the Kansas River between Wamego and Kansas City, Kansas, during three synoptic surveys conducted between November 2001 and August 2002. The analytical results from these samples indicated that ammonia and other nutrient concentrations and fecal coliform bacteria densities increased in the Kansas River from Wamego to Kansas City. Point sources were the primary contributors of ammonia and fecal coliform bacteria during low-flow conditions. Generally, ammonia concentrations in the Kansas River were largest at sampling sites just downstream from WWTFs. Overall, ammonia concentrations in the Kansas River, tributaries, and WWTF effluent were larger in the winter than during the summer. None of the main-stem sample concentrations exceeded the State of Kansas pH- and temperature-dependent chronic aquatic-life criteria for ammonia during the sampling periods. Other nutrients, such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus, indicated a similar, but less variable, spatial pattern along the main stem of the Kansas River, with concentrations increasing slightly downstream from major WWTFs. The temporal variance defined by the results of synoptic survey III (July 22–August 8, 2002) indicated that ammonia concentrations in the Kansas River sometimes varied daily by as much as 155 percent at a single site. Samples analyzed for densities of fecal coliform bacteria illustrated a seasonal, spatial, and temporal pattern slightly different from that of nutrients. Overall, the bacteria densities measured during the summer were larger than the densities measured in the winter. The only fecal coliform bacteria density to exceed the former State water-quality, single-sample criteria of 2,000 col/100 mL (colonies per 100 milliliters of water) was measured at 4,000 col/100 mL during synoptic III (summer 2002) on the main stem of the Kansas River at Kansas City. Temporal variability measured during synoptic survey III indicated up to a 263-percent difference in bacteria density over a 12-day period. Instantaneous loads of ammonia and bacteria were computed to determine primary inputs to the Kansas River and ammonia and bacteria decay rates in the river. The Oakland WWTF in Topeka was the largest contributor of both ammonia and bacteria on the basis of samples collected during the three synoptic surveys, except for fecal coliform bacteria collected during synoptic survey III when the DeSoto WWTF was discharging the largest concentration of bacteria. The ammonia assimilative process was about twice as effective during the summer synoptic survey than it was during the winter survey. Decay of fecal coliform bacteria density was less evident and appeared to have little seasonal effect on the basis of data collected for this report. The summer low-streamflow water-quality conditions were suitable for nitrification, algae that consume ammonia, and consequently, decaying organic matter that consume oxygen. The consumption of dissolved oxygen due to nitrification and decaying algae contributed to three measurements of dissolved oxygen that were less than the State of Kansas aquatic-life-support use criteria of 5.0 milligrams per liter. CE–QUAL–W2, a two-dimensional, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, was used to simulate ammonia and bacteria transport in the Kansas River from Topeka to Kansas City. The model was calibrated and verified using data from the three synoptic surveys. The calibrated model successfully simulated the hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, ammonia, and fecal coliform bacteria in the Kansas River. Simulated in-stream ammonia concentrations were compared to measured concentrations upstream to downstream along the Kansas River. The simulated in-stream ammonia concentrations mostly overestimated the measured values for both winter and summer, with a few exceptions. Comparisons between measured and simulated in-stream ammonia concentrations indicated ammonia assimilation was simulated more accurately in the summer than during the winter. Four hypothetical simulations of varied effluent discharges from existing WWTFs and addition of a proposed WWTF near DeSoto were simulated to better understand future water-quality conditions in the Kansas River. Results indicated that ammonia and dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the Kansas River will decrease from the conditions observed during synoptic surveys II (February 25 through March 1, 2002) and III (July 22 through August 8, 2002) except near the proposed WWTF where concentrations of ammonia would be near or exceed criteria for waterborne species. Effects of the proposed WWTF on dissolved oxygen would result in concentrations less than the State of Kansas aquatic-life-support use criteria of 5.0 milligrams per liter for 1 to 2 miles downstream from either of the proposed sites.

Kansas↗

USGS2015

Updated numerical model with uncertainty assessment of 1950-56 drought conditions on brackish-water movement within the Edwards aquifer, San Antonio, Texas

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, began a study to assess the brackish-water movement within the Edwards aquifer (more specifically the potential for brackish-water encroachment into wells near the interface between the freshwater and brackish-water transition zones, referred to in this report as the transition-zone interface) and effects on spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs under drought conditions using a numerical model. The quantitative targets of this study are to predict the effects of higher-than-average groundwater withdrawals from wells and drought-of-record rainfall conditions of 1950–56 on (1) dissolved-solids concentration changes at production wells near the transition-zone interface, (2) total spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs, and (3) the groundwater head (head) at Bexar County index well J-17. The predictions of interest, and the parameters implemented into the model, were evaluated to quantify their uncertainty so the results of the predictions could be presented in terms of a 95-percent credible interval. The model area covers the San Antonio and Barton Springs segments of the Edwards aquifer; the history-matching effort was focused on the San Antonio segment. A previously developed diffuse-flow model of the Edwards aquifer, which forms the basis for the model in this assessment, is primarily based on a conceptualization in which flow in the aquifer is predominately through a network of numerous small fractures and openings. Primary updates to this model include an extension of the active area downdip, a conversion to an 8-layer SEAWAT variable-density flow and transport model to simulate dissolved-solids concentration effects on water density, history matching to 1999–2009 conditions, and parameter estimation in a highly parameterized context using automated methods in PEST (a model-independent Parameter ESTimation code). In addition to the best-fit parameter values derived from history matching, the uncertainty of model parameters was also estimated by using linear uncertainty analysis. Comparison of “prior” (before history matching) and “posterior” (after history matching) variances of parameters indicate that the information within the observation dataset used for history matching informs many parameters. The concentration threshold parameters were well-informed by the observation dataset as their posterior distributions were much narrower than their prior distributions. The transition-zone scaling parameters of hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity, and specific storage were all informed by the observation dataset, as evidenced by the difference between the prior and posterior variances. Saline-zone scaling parameters, alternatively, were not informed by the observation dataset for effective porosity and specific storage. Resulting posterior drier-month, wetter-month, and annual recharge multiplier parameter variances are important to understanding how well recharge is estimated and implemented within the model. The shifts of the posterior distributions left and right indicate that there were zones where less or more water was needed in the model. The widths of the distributions were not decreased substantially, indicating that many of the best-fit recharge parameters are not statistically different from the initial values specified in the history-matching effort. Recharge from rainfall is the driving force behind groundwater flow and heads in the aquifer; therefore, an increase in understanding of this process would benefit model development by potentially decreasing the uncertainty of this parameter. The history-matching effort was most helpful in informing the parameters in the model that control discharge at springs, namely, the spring orifice (drain) altitude and drain conductance parameters for each spring. The uncertainty assessment of the predictive model (a hypothetical recurrence of 1950–56 drought conditions and higher-than-average groundwater withdrawals from wells) provided insights into the potential effects of these conditions on dissolved-solids concentration changes at production wells near the transition-zone interface, discharges at Comal and San Marcos Springs, and heads at Bexar County index well J-17. Results at the 25 production wells near the transition-zone interface indicate that the uncertainty of model input parameters based on expert knowledge yielded an upper bound of the 95-percent credible interval of dissolved-solids concentrations that exceeds the secondary drinking water standards of 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) for many wells. However, the history-matching process provided key information to inform prediction-sensitive model parameters and therefore, contributed to a substantial decrease of the upper bound of the 95-percent credible interval to below the secondary drinking water standards. Reductions in dissolved-solids concentration changes were on the order of 400 mg/L to 1,300 mg/L. The reduction in uncertainty in regards to this prediction implies that this prediction of dissolved-solids concentration change can be made with some certainty using this current model and that those parameters that control this prediction are informed by the observation dataset. Even though predictive uncertainty was reduced for this prediction, dissolved-solids concentration changes were still greater than zero, indicating a minimal increase in concentration at these 25 production wells during the 7-year simulation period is likely. However, this minimal concentration increase indicates a small potential for movement of the brackish-water transition zone near these wells during the 7-year simulation period of drought-ofrecord (1950–56) rainfall conditions with higher-than-average groundwater withdrawals by wells. Predictive results of total spring discharge during the 7-year period, as well as head predictions at Bexar County index well J-17, were much different than the dissolved-solids concentration change results at the production wells. These upper bounds are an order of magnitude larger than the actual prediction which implies that (1) the predictions of total spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs and head at Bexar County index well J-17 made with this model are not reliable, and (2) parameters that control these predictions are not informed well by the observation dataset during historymatching, even though the history-matching process yielded parameters to reproduce spring discharges and heads at these locations during the history-matching period. Furthermore, because spring discharges at these two springs and heads at Bexar County index well J-17 represent more of a cumulative effect of upstream conditions over a larger distance (and longer time), many more parameters (with their own uncertainties) are potentially controlling these predictions than the prediction of dissolved-solids concentration change at the prediction wells, and therefore contributing to a large posterior uncertainty.

Texas↗

USGS2005

Preliminary report on the 28 September 2004, M 6.0 Parkfield, California earthquake

The M w 6.0 Parkfield earthquake struck central California at 17:15:14 UTC on 28 September 2004. The epicenter was located 11 km southeast of the rural town of Parkfield, adjacent to Gold Hill and on the San Andreas Fault ( Figure 1 ). The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) reported that the hypocenter was located at 35.819°N, 120.364°W at a depth of 8.8 km. From the distribution of aftershocks and from models of seismograms, strain changes, and geodetic displacements from the earthquake, it appears that the rupture propagated to the northwest along the San Andreas Fault from its hypocenter beneath Gold Hill to Middle Mountain. Because of the earthquake's moderate size and the low population density, only minimal damage was reported, but strong ground motions of approximately 1 g were recorded at a few isolated points (Shakal et al. , 2005, this issue).

California↗

USGS2022

Spatially integrating microbiology and geochemistry to reveal complex environmental health issues: Anthrax in the contiguous United States

Maxent models were run using the B. anthracis presence data and/or the animal outbreak presence data. Models run using the animal outbreak data alone utilized two scales: the Outbreak State scale which included only states reporting animal anthrax outbreaks from 2001 to 2013 and the National scale which included all states in the contiguous United States. Three iterations of the environmental data were used and included the Sample Location dataset which utilized the environmental variable data with assigned latitude and longitude locations from the USGS NASGLP project; the Normalized dataset which scaled the environmental variables so that the values fell between 0 and 1; and the Interpolated dataset which provided an interpolation of the environmental variables averaged for each county and assigned to a point for that county at the centroid (rather than using the NASGLP latitude and longitude location). Two metrics were used to measure model performance including the widely used area under the curve (AUC) and an alternative method, the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The AUC gives the probability that a randomly chosen presence location has been correctly ranked higher than the absence/background site. AUC values at 0.5 or lower mean the ranking is no better than random, while the AUC values nearer to 1 mean the model is a better predictor. The TSS provides a comparison of how well the background predictions made by the model match the model results at the test dataset (presence) locations. TSS values near +1 means the model approaches perfect agreement, while values near −1 indicate the model is no better than random. Maxent models to determine the influence of environmental factors on the B. anthracis distribution using the PCR data yielded a low TSS, which suggested the model might be underfitting the data. This was not surprising due to the difficulty in recovering B. anthracis in soil samples as well as the samples themselves being discrete in nature and only capturing a snapshot in time. Therefore, the distribution of B. anthracis and its niche in the contiguous United States could not be determined in this study. However, efforts to investigate environmental factors that would have a higher potential of supporting an anthrax outbreak in wildlife and livestock yielded better results. Results showed that most of the Maxent models in this study performed best when using the Outbreak State scale. When the models were scaled up to the National scale, model performance declined, except for the Normalized variable dataset. At the Outbreak State scale, a large proportion of the area was predicted to be of higher probability for wildlife/livestock anthrax outbreaks, and the statistical measures assumed the model was underfitting the data. The model with the highest AUC and TSS scores for this study was the Outbreak State scale using Sample Location dataset (AUC = 0.918 and TSS = 0.82). Some of the variables found to be closely related to the occurrence of B. anthracis in this study included pH, drainage potential, and concentration of elements including Na, Ca, Sr, and Mg, which have also been found to be related to animal outbreaks or to the occurrence of B. anthracis in previous studies. The models in the current study indicated possible regions that have not had recent wildlife/livestock anthrax outbreaks but contained environmental conditions that could potentially support an outbreak if one were to occur (Michigan and Maine). This work provides an extension to the use of ecological niche modeling to outbreak potential in livestock/wildlife in the United States because it utilizes additional soil geochemistry data and has shown that further validation techniques, such as the TSS, should be considered in addition to AUC. Results from this study could be used by animal and public health officials to identify areas with a higher potential for anthrax outbreak in wildlife and livestock due to naturally occurring soil and environmental conditions.

Book chapter↗

USGS1974

A special planning technique for stream-aquifer systems

The potential effects of water-management plans on stream-aquifer systems in several countries have been simulated using electric-analog or digital-computer models. Many of the electric-analog models require large amounts of hardware preparation for each problem to be solved and some become so bulky that they present serious space and access problems. Digital-computer models require no special hardware preparation but often they require so many repetitive solutions of equations that they result in calculations that are unduly unwieldy and expensive, even on the latest generation of computers. Further, the more detailed digital models require a vast amount of core storage, leaving insufficient storage for evaluation of the many possible schemes of water-management. A concept introduced in 1968 by the senior author of this report offers a solution to these problems. The concept is that the effects on streamflow of ground-water withdrawal or recharge (stress) at any point in such a system can be approximated using two classical equations and a value of time that reflects the integrated effect of the following: irregular impermeable boundaries; stream meanders; aquifer properties and their areal variations; distance of the point from the stream; and imperfect hydraulic connection between the stream and the aquifer. The value of time is called the stream depletion factor ( sdf ). Results of a relatively few tests on detailed models can be summarized on maps showing lines through points of equal sdf . Sensitivity analyses of models of two large stream-aquifer systems in the State of Colorado show that the sdf technique described in this report provides results within tolerable ranges of error. The sdf technique is extremely versatile, allowing water managers to choose the degree of detail that best suits their needs and available computational hardware. Simple arithmetic, using, for example, only a slide rule and charts or tables of dimensionless values, will be sufficient for many calculations. If a large digital computer is available, detailed description of the system and its stresses will require only a fraction of the core storage, leaving the greater part of the storage available for sophisticated analyses, such as optimization. Once these analyses have been made, the model then is ready to perform its principal task--prediction of streamflow and changes in ground-water storage. In the two systems described in this report, direct diversion from the streams is the principal source of irrigation water, but it is supplemented by numerous wells. The streamflow depends largely on snowmelt. Estimates of both the amount and timing of runoff from snowmelt during the irrigation season are available on a monthly basis during the spring and early summer. These estimates become increasingly accurate as the season progresses, hence frequent changes of stress on the predictive model are necessary. The sdf technique is especially well suited to this purpose, because it is very easy to make such changes, resulting in more up-todate estimates of the availability of streamflow and ground-water storage. These estimates can be made for any time and any location in the system.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1996

Initial rupture of earthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California sequence

Close examination of the P waves from earthquakes ranging in size across several orders of magnitude shows that the shape of the initiation of the velocity waveforms is independent of the magnitude of the earthquake. A model in which earthquakes of all sizes have similar rupture initiation can explain the data. This suggests that it is difficult to estimate the eventual size of an earthquake from the initial portion of the waveform. Previously reported curvature seen in the beginning of some velocity waveforms can be largely explained as the effect of anelastic attenuation; thus there is little evidence for a departure from models of simple rupture initiation that grow dynamically from a small region. The results of this study indicate that any "precursory" radiation at seismic frequencies must emanate from a source region no larger than the equivalent of a M0.5 event (i.e. a characteristic length of ???10 m). The size of the nucleation region for magnitude 0 to 5 earthquakes thus is not resolvable with the standard seismic instrumentation deployed in California. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail ( Anas acuta ) and mallard ( Anas platyrhnchos ) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Occurrence of cyanobacteria, microcystin, and taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir, Kansas, 2001-16

Cheney Reservoir, located in south-central Kansas, is one of the primary drinking-water supplies for the city of Wichita and an important recreational resource. Since 1990, cyanobacterial blooms have been present occasionally in Cheney Reservoir, resulting in increased treatment costs and decreased recreational use. Cyanobacteria, the cyanotoxin microcystin, and the taste-and-odor compounds geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol have been measured in Cheney Reservoir by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, for about 16 years. The purpose of this report is to describe the occurrence of cyanobacteria, microcystin, and taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir during May 2001 through June 2016 and to update previously published logistic regression models that used continuous water-quality data to estimate the probability of microcystin and geosmin occurrence above relevant thresholds. Cyanobacteria, microcystin, and geosmin were detected in about 84, 52, and 31 percent of samples collected in Cheney Reservoir during May 2001 through June 2016, respectively. 2-methylisoborneol was less common, detected in only 3 percent of samples. Microcystin and geosmin concentrations exceeded advisory values of concern more frequently than cyanobacterial abundance; therefore, cyanobacteria are not a good indicator of the presence of these taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir. Broad seasonal patterns in cyanobacteria and microcystin were evident, though abundance and concentration varied by orders of magnitude across years. Cyanobacterial abundances generally peaked in late summer or early fall (August through October), and smaller peaks were observed in winter (January through February). In a typical year, microcystin was first detected in June or July, increased to its seasonal maxima in the summer (July through September), and then decreased. Seasonal patterns in geosmin were less consistent than cyanobacteria and microcystin, but geosmin typically had a small peak during winter (January through March) during most years and a large peak during summer (July through September) during some years. Though the relation between cyanobacterial abundance and microcystin and geosmin concentrations was positive, overall correlations were weak, likely because production is strain-specific and cyanobacterial strain composition may vary substantially over time. Microcystin often was present without taste-and-odor compounds. By comparison, where taste-and-odor compounds were present, microcystin frequently was detected. Taste-and-odor compounds, therefore, may be used as indicators that microcystin may be present; however, microcystin was present without taste-and-odor compounds, so taste or odor alone does not provide sufficient warning to ensure human-health protection. Logistic regression models that estimate the probability of microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter and geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter were developed. Models were developed using the complete dataset (January 2003 through June 2016 for microcystin [14-year dataset]; May 2001 through June 2016 for geosmin [16-year dataset]) and an abbreviated 4-year dataset (January 2013 through June 2016 for microcystin and geosmin). Performance of the newly developed models was compared with previously published models that were developed using data collected during May 2001 through December 2009. A seasonal component and chlorophyll fluorescence (a surrogate for algal biomass) were the explanatory variables for microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter in all models. All models were relatively robust, though the previously published and 14-year models performed better over time; however, as a tool to estimate microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter in a real-time notification system near the Cheney Dam, the 4-year model is most representative of recent (2013 through 2016) conditions. All models for geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter had different explanatory variables and model forms. The previously published and 16-year models were not robust over time, likely because of changing environmental conditions and seasonal patterns in geosmin occurrence. By comparison, the abbreviated 4-year model may be a useful tool to estimate geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter in a real-time notification system near the Cheney Dam. The better performance of the abbreviated 4-year geosmin model during 2013 through 2016 relative to the previously published and 16-year models demonstrates the need for continuous reevaluation of models estimating the probability of occurrence.

Kansas↗