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At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Modeling the human invader in the United States

Modern biogeographers recognize that humans are seen as constituents of ecosystems, drivers of significant change, and perhaps, the most invasive species on earth. We found it instructive to model humans as invasive organisms with the same environmental factors. We present a preliminary model of the spread of modern humans in the conterminous United States between 1992 and 2001 based on a subset of National Land Cover Data (NLCD), a time series LANDSAT product. We relied on the commonly used Maxent model, a species-environmental matching model, to map urbanization. Results: Urban areas represented 5.1% of the lower 48 states in 2001, an increase of 7.5% (18,112 km 2 ) in the nine year period. At this rate, an area the size of Massachusetts is converted to urban land use every ten years. We used accepted models commonly used for mapping plant and animal distributions and found that climatic and environmental factors can strongly predict our spread (i.e., the conversion of forests, shrub/grass, and wetland areas into urban areas), with a 92.5% success rate (Area Under the Curve). Adding a roads layer in the model improved predictions to a 95.5% success rate. 8.8% of the 1-km 2 > cells in the conterminous U.S. now have a major road in them. In 2001, 0.8% of 1-km 2 > cells in the U.S. had an urbanness value of > 800, (>89% of a 1-km 2 > cell is urban), while we predict that 24.5% of 1-km 2 > cells in the conterminous U.S. will be > 800 eventually. Main conclusion: Humans have a highly predictable pattern of urbanization based on climatic and topographic variables. Conservation strategies may benefit from that predictability.

Journal of Applied Remote Sensing↗

USGS1982

Development and use of a habitat gradient model to evaluate wildlife habitat

Ecologists and wildlife managers are increasingly confronted with the problems of predicting the value of surface cover as wildlife habitat and developing management alternatives to offset wildlife values lost because of land-use change. These problems have become urgent and more acute because of increased demand for products from the land and diminished fiscal and manpower resources for obtaining meaningful environmental information for the decision maker. This paper describes a relatively rapid, simple, and quantitative process for evaluating the quality of an area as wildlife habitat.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Na↗

USGS2020

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

California↗

USGS2004

Estimating flood-peak discharge magnitudes and frequencies for rural streams in Illinois

Flood-peak discharge magnitudes and frequencies at streamflow-gaging sites were developed with the annual maximum series (AMS) and the partial duration series (PDS) in this study. Regional equations for both flood series were developed for estimating flood-peak discharge magnitudes at specified recurrence intervals of rural Illinois streams. The regional equations are techniques for estimating flood quantiles at ungaged sites or for improving estimated flood quantiles at gaged sites with short records or unrepresentative data. Besides updating at-site floodfrequency estimates using flood data up to water year 1999, this study updated the generalized skew coefficients for Illinois to be used with the Log-Pearson III probability distribution for analyzing the AMS, developed a program for analyzing the partial duration series with the Generalized Pareto probability distribution, and applied the BASINSOFT program with digital datasets in soil, topography, land cover, and precipitation to develop a set of basin characteristics. The multiple regression analysis was used to develop the regional equations with subsets of the basin characteristics and the updated at-site flood frequencies. Seven hydrologic regions were delineated using physiographic and hydrologic characteristics of drainage basins of Illinois. The seven hydrologic regions were used for both the AMS and PDS analyses. Examples are presented to illustrate the use of the AMS regional equations to estimate flood quantiles at an ungaged site and to improve flood-quantile estimates at and near a gaged site. Flood-quantile estimates in four regulated channel reaches of Illinois also are approximated by linear interpolation. Documentation of the flood data preparation and evaluation, procedures for determining the flood quantiles, basin characteristics, generalized skew coefficients, hydrologic region delineations, and the multiple regression analyses used to determine the regional equations are presented in the main text and appendixes.

Illinois↗

USGS2025

Potential for biological effects of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in Great Lakes tributaries and associations with land cover and wastewater effluent

Surface water concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and potential for resulting biological effects were estimated in a study using polar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCIS) from 60 tributary sites within 20 watersheds in the Great Lakes Basin in 2018. Sites represented a range of urban to agricultural, forested, and wetland land uses and included a gradient of wastewater treatment effluent from zero to 44% of annual streamflow. Several sites also had airport influence. Twenty-one of 32 targeted PFAS compounds were detected in POCIS samplers, of which, 16 had available POCIS sampling rates, enabling time-weighted water concentration estimates and comparison with available effects data. Estimated water concentrations were compared with published water quality guidelines (available for nine PFAS), effect concentrations reported in primary literature within the ECOTOX Knowledgebase for apical endpoints (10 PFAS) and nonapical endpoints (10 PFAS), and in vitro high-throughput screening data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Toxicity Forecaster (ToxCast; 14 PFAS). Based on a conservative evaluation approach that was also weighted for persistence and limitations in available toxicological information, five individual PFAS, including perfluorooctanesulfonic acid, perfluorohexanesulfonic acid, perfluorobutanesulfonic acid, perfluorooctanoic acid, and perfluorononanoic acid were identified as warranting additional investigation. Possible increased potency of PFAS mixtures over individual chemical effects, estimated by summation of exposure-activity ratios (EARs) for chemicals that influence common ToxCast assays and specified gene targets, indicated that EAR values increased up to 5.6-fold over individual chemicals, with up to 14 chemicals contributing to mixture effect predictions. Potential for biological effects from PFAS, as estimated by summed exposure-activity ratios, were correlated with urban land use and the proportion of streamflow contributed by wastewater effluent.

Great Lakes tributaries↗

USGS2021

A combined microbial and ecosystem metric of carbon retention efficiency explains land cover-dependent soil microbial biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships

While soil organic carbon (C) is the foundation of productive and healthy ecosystems, the impact of the ecology of microorganisms on C-cycling remains unknown. We manipulated the diversity, applied here as species richness, of the microbial community present in similar soils on two contrasting land-covers—an adjacent pasture and forest—and observed the transformations of plant detritus and soil organic matter (SOM) using stable isotope ( 13 C) tracing coupled with a novel nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiment. The amount of detritus-C degraded was not affected by the microbial diversity (p > 0.05), however the fate of detritus- and SOM-C across the diversity gradient was complex and land cover-dependent. For example, in the pasture soil, higher diversity led to lower CO 2 production (p = 0.001), a trend driven solely by SOM-C mineralization. There was no relationship between diversity and detritus-C mineralization or production of new mineral-associations after one year (p > 0.05). In contrast, in the forest soil higher diversity resulted in increased detritus-C (p = 0.01) and SOM-C (p = 0.0008) mineralization and decreased mineral-associated organic matter formation (p = 0.02). In both land cover types, retention efficiency—a measure that integrates both microbial physiology and the ability of the ecosystem to retain C—explained C loss and transformation trends. Overall, this demonstrates that the trajectory of C gained and lost is altered by land management-induced changes to microbial communities, soil structure, and chemical characteristics underlying SOM persistence.

Biogeochemistry Letters↗

USGS2012

Landslides and sediment budgets in four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico: Chapter F in Water quality and landscape processes of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico

The low-latitude regions of the Earth are undergoing profound, rapid landscape change as forests are converted to agriculture to support growing population. Understanding the effects of these land-use changes requires analysis of watershed-scale geomorphic processes to better inform and manage this usually disorganized process. The investigation of hillslope erosion and the development of sediment budgets provides essential information for resource managers. Four small, montane, humid-tropical watersheds in the Luquillo Experimental Forest and nearby Río Grande de Loíza watershed, Puerto Rico (18° 20' N., 65° 45' W.), were selected to compare and contrast the geomorphic effects of land use and bedrock geology. Two of the watersheds are underlain largely by resistant Cretaceous volcaniclastic rocks but differ in land use and mean annual runoff: the Mameyes watershed, with predominantly primary forest cover and runoff of 2,750 millimeters per year, and the Canóvanas watershed, with mixed secondary forest and pasture and runoff of 970 millimeters per year. The additional two watersheds are underlain by relatively erodible granitic bedrock: the forested Icacos watershed, with runoff of 3,760 millimeters per year and the agriculturally developed Cayaguás watershed, with a mean annual runoff of 1,620 millimeters per year. Annual sediment budgets were estimated for each watershed using landslide, slopewash, soil creep, treethrow, suspended sediment, and streamflow data. The budgets also included estimates of sediment storage in channel beds, bars, floodplains, and in colluvial deposits. In the two watersheds underlain by volcaniclastic rocks, the forested Mameyes and the developed Canóvanas watersheds, landslide frequency (0.21 and 0.04 landslides per square kilometer per year, respectively), slopewash (5 and 30 metric tons per square kilometer per year), and suspended sediment yield (325 and 424 metric tons per square kilometer per year), were lower than in the two watersheds underlain by granitic bedrock. In these granitic watersheds, landslide frequency, slopewash, and suspended sediment yield were 0.43 landslides per square kilometer per year, 20 metric tons per square kilometer per year, and 2,140 metric tons per square kilometer per year, respectively, in the forested Icacos watershed and 0.8 landslides per square kilometer per year, 105 metric tons per square kilometer per year, and 2,110 metric tons per square kilometer per year, respectively, in the agriculturally developed Cayaguás watershed. Comparison of sediment budgets from the forested and developed watersheds indicates that human activities increase landslide frequency by as much as factor of 5 and slopewash by as much as a factor of 6. When the difference in annual runoff is considered, the effect of land use on suspended sediment yields is also notable. Sediment concentration, calculated as sediment yield normalized by runoff, was about 2.3 to 3.7 times as great in the two watersheds in secondary forest and pasture compared with sediment concentration in the watersheds in primary forest. Even in the two watersheds with primary forest cover, the Mameyes and Icacos, located in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, the effects of anthropogenic disturbance were marked: 43 to 63 percent of landslide-related erosion was associated with road construction and maintenance.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2017

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2024

Exploring spatial and temporal symptoms of the freshwater salinization syndrome in a rural to urban watershed

The freshwater salinization syndrome (FSS), a concomitant watershed-scale increase in salinity, alkalinity, and major-cation and trace-metal concentrations, over recent decades, has been described for major rivers draining extensive urban areas, yet few studies have evaluated temporal and spatial FSS variations, or causal factors, at the subwatershed scale in mixed-use landscapes. This study examines the potential influence of land-use practices and wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent on the export of major ions and trace metals from the mixed-use East Branch Brandywine Creek watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania, during the 2019 water year. Separate analysis of baseflow and stormflow subsets revealed similar correlations among land-use characteristics and streamwater chemistry. Positive associations between percent impervious surface cover, which ranged from 1.26 % to 21.9 % for the 13 sites sampled, and concentrations of Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Na + , and Cl − are consistent with road-salt driven reverse cation exchange and weathering of the built environment. The relative volume of upstream WWTP was correlated with Cu and Zn, which may be derived in part from corroded water-conveyance infrastructure; chloride to sulfate mass ratios (CSMR) ranged from ~6.3 to ~7.7× the 0.5 threshold indicating serious corrosivity potential. Observed exceedances of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Na + and Cl − drinking water and aquatic life criteria occurred in winter months. Finally, correlations between percent cultivated cropland and As and Pb concentrations may be explained by the persistence of agricultural pesticides that had been used historically. Study results contribute to the understanding of FSS solute origin, fate, and transport in mixed-use watersheds, particularly those in road salt-affected regions. Study results also emphasize the complexity of trace-metal source attribution and explore the potential for FSS solutes to affect human health, aquatic life, and infrastructure.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2017

Annual estimates of recharge, quick-flow runoff, and ET for the contiguous U.S. using empirical regression equations

This study presents new data-driven, annual estimates of the division of precipitation into the recharge, quick-flow runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) water budget components for 2000-2013 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). The algorithms used to produce these maps ensure water budget consistency over this broad spatial scale, with contributions from precipitation influx attributed to each component at 800 m resolution. The quick-flow runoff estimates for the contribution to the rapidly varying portion of the hydrograph are produced using data from 1,434 gaged watersheds, and depend on precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, and surficial geology type. Evapotranspiration estimates are produced from a regression using water balance data from 679 gaged watersheds and depend on land cover, temperature, and precipitation. The quick-flow and ET estimates are combined to calculate recharge as the remainder of precipitation. The ET and recharge estimates are checked against independent field data, and the results show good agreement. Comparisons of recharge estimates with groundwater extraction data show that in 15% of the country, groundwater is being extracted at rates higher than the local recharge. These maps of the internally consistent water budget components of recharge, quick-flow runoff, and ET, being derived from and tested against data, are expected to provide reliable first-order estimates of these quantities across the CONUS, even where field measurements are sparse.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2018

Status of tidal marsh mapping for blue carbon inventories

Remote-sensing-based maps of tidal marshes, both of their extents and carbon stocks, will play a key role in conducting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. The U.N. Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre has produced a new Global Distribution of Salt Marsh dataset that estimates global salt marsh area at 5.5 Mha. A Tier 1–2 GHG Inventory of U.S. Coastal Wetlands has been developed using the NOAA Coastal-Change Analysis Program Landsat-based land cover maps as a primary dataset. 180Successful mapping of tidal marsh biomass with optical satellite images provides opportunity to improve GHG Inventories. Further work is needed to map tidal marsh salinity gradients, the extent of tidal vs. non-tidal marshes, methane emissions, and high-resolution elevation.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1999

Fraser River watershed, Colorado — Assessment of available water-quantity and water-quality data through water year 1997

The water-quantity and water-quality data for the Fraser River watershed through water year 1997 were compiled for ground-water and surface-water sites. In order to assess the water-quality data, the data were related to land use/land cover in the watershed. Data from 81 water-quantity and water-quality sites, which consisted of 9 ground-water sites and 72 surface-water sites, were available for analysis. However, the data were limited and frequently contained only one or two water-quality analyses per site. The Fraser River flows about 28 miles from its headwaters at the Continental Divide to the confluence with the Colorado River. Ground-water resources in the watershed are used for residential and municipal drinking-water supplies. Surface water is available for use, but water diversions in the upper parts of the watershed reduce the flow in the river. Land use/land cover in the watershed is predominantly forested land, but increasing urban development has the potential to affect the quantity and quality of the water resources. Analysis of the limited ground-water data in the watershed indicates that changes in the land use/land cover affect the shallow ground-water quality. Water-quality data from eight shallow monitoring wells in the alluvial aquifer show that iron and manganese concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant level. Radon concentrations from these monitoring wells exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed maximum contaminant level. The proposed radon contaminant level is currently being revised. The presence of volatile organic compounds at two monitoring wells in the watershed indicates that land use affects the shallow ground water. In addition, bacteria detected in three samples are at concentrations that would be a concern for public health if the water was to be used as a drinking supply. Methylene blue active substances were detected in the ground water at some sites and are a possible indication of contamination from wastewater. Age of the alluvial ground water ranged from 10 to 30 years; therefore, results of land-management practices to improve water quality may not be apparent for many years. Surface-water-quality data for the Fraser River watershed are sparse. The surface-water-quality data show that elevated concentrations of selected constituents generally are related to specific land uses in the watershed. For one sample (about 2 percent; 1 of 53), dissolved manganese concentration exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant level. Two samples from two surface-water sites in the watershed exceeded the un-ionized ammonia chronic criterion. Spatial distribution of nutrient species (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and total phosphorus) shows that elevated concentrations occur primarily downstream from urban areas. Sites with five or more years of record were analyzed for temporal trends in concentration of nutrient species. Downward trends were identified for ammonia and nitrite for three surface-water sites. For nitrate, no trends were observed at two sites and a downward trend was observed at one site. Total phosphorus showed no trend for the site near the mouth of the Fraser River. Downward trends in the nutrient species may reflect changes in the wastewater-treatment facilities in the watershed. Bacteria sampling completed in the watershed indicates that more bacteria are present in the water near urban settings. The limited ground-water and surface-water data for the Fraser River watershed provide a general assessment of the quantity and quality of these resources. Concentrations of most water-quality constituents generally are less than ground- and surface-water-quality standards, but the presence of bacteria, some volatile organic compounds, methylene blue active substances, and increased nutrients in the water may indicate that land use is affecting the water quality.

Colorado↗

USGS2020

Departures of rangeland fractional component cover and land cover from landsat-based ecological potential in Wyoming USA

Monitoring rangelands by identifying the departure of contemporary conditions from long-term ecological potential allows for the disentanglement of natural biophysical gradients driving change from changes associated with land uses and other disturbance types. We developed maps of ecological potential (EP) for shrub, sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), perennial herbaceous, litter, and bare ground fractional cover in Wyoming, USA. EP maps correspond to the potential natural vegetation cover expected by environmental conditions in the absence of anthropogenic and natural disturbance as represented by the greenest and least disturbed period of the Landsat archive. EP was predicted using regression tree models with inputs of soil maps and spectral data associated with the 75th percentile of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Landsat archive. We trained our EP models with 2015 component cover maps on ecologically intact sites with relatively lower bare ground than expected. We generated departure of vegetation cover by comparing the EP and 2015 fractional cover. The departures represent land cover change from potential land cover and/or within-state changes in 2015. Next, we converted EP and 2015 fractional cover maps into thematic land cover and evaluated departure to determine if it was great enough to result in land cover change. The 2015 conditions showed reduced shrub, sagebrush, litter, and perennial herbaceous cover and increased bare ground relative to EP. Known disturbances, such as energy development, fires, and vegetation treatments, are clearly visible on the departure maps, but not on EP component maps. The most frequent departure from EP land cover was shrubland conversion to grassland. Land cover departures can be explained only in small part by known disturbance, and instead are ostensibly related to climate and land management practices. These drivers result in land cover departures that broadened the ecotone between shrubland and grassland relative to EP.

Wyoming↗

USGS2004

Assessment of current and proposed nature reserves of Mexico based on their capacity to protect geophysical features and biodiversity

Mexico currently has 144 nature reserves covering approximately 9.1% of its land area. These reserves were established for a variety of reasons - often unrelated to the protection of biodiversity. In 2000 in response to a growing concern about the lack of organized conservation reserve planning to protect the important threatened biological and physical features of Mexico, the Mexican Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (CONABIO) proposed the establishment of 151 new reserves for Mexico covering 51,429,500 ha. We compiled a GIS analysis using digital thematic maps of physical and biological features to examine how the existing and proposed reserves serve to protect the biodiversity and physical features of the country. Using a conservation target of placing a minimum of 12% of the land area of each important biophysical feature in nature reserves, we found that the 144 existing nature reserves covering 18 million ha (9% of the country) only meet that target for elevation ranges >3000 m and areas with poor soils. These mountainous areas represent less than 1% of the country. The gaps in the existing nature reserves network occur mainly at lower and intermediate elevations (<3000 m) areas with xeric, tropical, and temperate ecosystems, and high productivity soils. The areas proposed by CONABIO increase the proportion of protected lands in the country to over 27% and most of the conservation targets for geophysical features, and land cover, categories are met. Whether this area would be sufficient to maintain viable populations and ecological integrity of species and ecosystems is unknown. Even with the new reserves, low elevation coastal lands would be below the conservation target in the nature reserves. To include a representative sample of these lands would be difficult as these are the same areas where the majority of people live. ?? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2022

Areas contributing recharge to selected production wells in unconfined and confined glacial valley-fill aquifers in Chenango River Basin, New York

In the Chenango River Basin of central New York, unconfined and confined glacial valley-fill aquifers are an important source of drinking-water supplies. The risk of contaminating water withdrawn by wells that tap these aquifers might be reduced if the areas contributing recharge to the wells are delineated and these areas protected from land uses that might affect the water quality. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation and the New York State Department of Health, began an investigation in 2019 to improve understanding of groundwater flow and delineate areas contributing recharge to 16 production wells clustered in three study areas in the basin as part of an effort to protect the source of water to these wells. Areas contributing recharge were delineated on the basis of numerical steady-state groundwater-flow models representing long-term average hydrologic conditions. In the Cortland study area, four water suppliers operate 10 production wells that withdraw a total average rate of 2,480 gallons per minute from an unconfined aquifer consisting of well-sorted sand and gravel deposits. Simulated areas contributing recharge to these wells at their average pumping rates covered a total area of 6.93 square miles. Simulated areas contributing recharge extend upgradient from the wells to upland till deposits and to groundwater divides. Some simulated areas contributing recharge include isolated areas remote from the wells. Short simulated groundwater traveltimes from recharging locations to discharging wells indicated that the wells are vulnerable to contamination from land-surface activities; 50 percent of the traveltimes were 10 years or less. Land cover in some of the areas contributing recharge included a substantial amount of urban and agriculture land use. The groundwater-flow model of the Cortland study area was calibrated to available hydrologic data by inverse modeling using nonlinear regression. The parameter variance-covariance matrix from model calibration was used to create parameter sets that reflect the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and the correlation among parameters to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the single, predicted contributing areas to the wells. This analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution. Because of the effects of parameter uncertainty, the size of the probabilistic contributing areas was larger than the size of the single, predicted contributing area for the wells. Thus, some areas not in the single, predicted contributing area might actually be in the contributing area, including additional areas of urban and agriculture land use that have the potential to contaminate groundwater. Additional areas that might be in the contributing area included recharge originating near the pumping wells that have relatively short groundwater-flow paths and traveltimes. In each of the Greene and Cincinnatus study areas, one water supplier operates three wells that are screened near the top of the bedrock surface in a confined aquifer consisting of poorly to well-sorted sand and gravel deposits. This confined aquifer is overlain by a lacustrine confining unit of very fine sand, silt, and clay, which in turn is overlain by a thin unconfined aquifer of sand and gravel. The groundwater-flow models for these two areas were manually calibrated because of the limited hydrologic data. Simulated areas contributing recharge to the Greene study area wells covered a total area of 0.35 square mile for the average pumping rate of 170 gallons per minute. The contributing areas extended southeastward of the wells to the groundwater divide in the till uplands. The contributing areas also included remote, isolated areas on the opposite side of the Chenango River from the wells primarily in the till uplands. For the Cincinnatus study area wells, which have a low average pumping rate (34 gallons per minute), the simulated contributing areas totaled 0.06 square mile and were on the same side of the river as the wells, but they are isolated areas remote from the wells primarily in the till-covered bedrock uplands. Land cover in these contributing areas for both study areas is primarily agriculture and forested, with the contributing areas to the Greene study area wells also including some urban land uses. Because the Greene and Cincinnatus study area wells are screened relatively deep and some flow paths to the wells partly travel through the confining unit, which impedes the connection with surface sources of recharge, overall groundwater traveltimes are greater than for wells in the Cortland study area. Fifty percent of Cortland study area wells, but only 9 and 44 percent of Greene and Cincinnatus study area wells, respectively, have groundwater traveltimes of 10 years or less.

New York↗

USGS2011

Chapter 3: Changes to the Wyoming Basins landscape from oil and natural gas development

Oil and natural gas have been produced in Wyoming since the late 1800s although the rate of extraction has increased substantially in the last two decades. Well pads, roads, and infrastructure built to support resource development alter native vegetation configuration; however, the rate and effect of land cover change resulting from oil and gas extraction has not been quantified across the region. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to model development through time and assess change to native vegetation at two spatial extents (field and subbasin) within the Wyoming portion of the Wyoming Basins Ecoregional Assessment (WBEA) area. Since 1900, a minimum of 1,703 km 2 of native vegetation in the WBEA area has been replaced by well pads or roads. Shrublands were, and continue to be, the dominant land cover class and the cover type most affected by oil and gas extraction. Average shrubland patch size has decreased by approximately 10% at the subbasin extent in the WBEA. Core area (≥60 m from edge) size declined by 13% as road development fragmented formerly continuous patches. To date, the majority of land cover change has occurred in formally identified oil and gas fields, which cover about 1% of the WBEA in Wyoming. Approximately 7.5% of shrubland within oil and gas fields has been converted to well pad or a road supporting a well, and shrubland patch size has declined by 45%. Resource reserves, especially natural gas, have been identified outside traditional fields, and development will likely expand as resource development becomes more cost-effective. Revegetation guidelines are in place for development areas addressed by Environmental Impact Assessments although no quantitative data are available to assess how well restoration efforts are restoring landscapes and connecting fragments.

Wyoming↗

USGS2012

Evaluating prediction uncertainty of areas contributing recharge to well fields of multiple water suppliers in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt River Basins, Rhode Island

Three river basins in central Rhode Island-the Hunt River, the Annaquatucket River, and the Pettaquamscutt River-contain 15 production wells clustered in 4 pumping centers from which drinking water is withdrawn. These high-capacity production wells, operated by three water suppliers, are screened in coarse-grained deposits of glacial origin. The risk of contaminating water withdrawn by these well centers may be reduced if the areas contributing recharge to the well centers are delineated and these areas protected from land uses that may affect the water quality. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Health, began an investigation in 2009 to improve the understanding of groundwater flow and delineate areas contributing recharge to the well centers as part of an effort to protect the source of water to these well centers. A groundwater-flow model was calibrated by inverse modeling using nonlinear regression to obtain the optimal set of parameter values, which provide a single, best representation of the area contributing recharge to a well center. Summary statistics from the calibrated model were used to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predicted areas contributing recharge to the well centers. This uncertainty analysis was done so that the contributing areas to the well centers would not be underestimated, thereby leaving the well centers inadequately protected. The analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution (probabilistic contributing areas) that differ from a single or deterministic contributing area. Groundwater flow was simulated in the surficial deposits and the underlying bedrock in the 47-square-mile study area. Observations (165 groundwater levels and 7 base flows) provided sufficient information to estimate parameters representing recharge and horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the glacial deposits and hydraulic conductance of streambeds. The calibrated value for recharge to valley-fill deposits was 27.3 inches per year (in/yr) and to upland till deposits was 18.7 in/yr. Calibrated values for horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the valley-fill deposits ranged from 20 to 480 feet per day (ft/d) and of the upland till deposits was 16.2 ft/d. Calibrated values of streambed hydraulic conductance ranged from 10,000 to 52,000 feet squared per day. Values of recharge and horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the valley-fill deposits were the most precisely estimated, whereas the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of till deposits was the least precisely estimated. Simulated areas contributing recharge to the well centers on the basis of the calibrated model ranged from 0.19 to 1.12 square miles (mi 2 ) and covered a total area of 2.79 mi 2 for average well center withdrawal rates during 2004-08 (235 to 1,858 gallons per minute (gal/min)). Simulated areas contributing recharge for the maximum well center pumping capacities (800 to 8,500 gal/min) ranged from 0.37 to 3.53 mi2 and covered a total area of 7.99 mi2 in the modeled area. Simulated areas contributing recharge extend upgradient of the well centers to upland till and to groundwater divides. Some areas contributing recharge include small, isolated areas remote from the well centers. Relatively short groundwater traveltimes from recharging locations to discharging wells indicated the wells are vulnerable to contamination from land-surface activities: median traveltimes ranged from 2.9 to 5.0 years for the well centers, and 78 to 93 percent of the traveltimes were 10 years or less for the well centers. Land cover in the areas contributing recharge includes a substantial amount of urban land use for the two well centers in the Hunt River Basin, agriculture and sand and gravel mining uses for the well center in the Annaquatucket River Basin, and, for the well center in the Pettaquamscutt River Basin, land use is primarily undeveloped. Model-prediction uncertainty was evaluated using a Monte Carlo analysis. The parameter variance-covariance matrix from nonlinear regression was used to create parameter sets that reflect the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and the correlation among parameters. The remaining parameters representing the glacial deposits (vertical anisotropy of valley-fill deposits and of till deposits, maximum groundwater evapotranspiration, and hydraulic conductance for headdependent cells representing a groundwater divide) that could not be estimated with nonlinear regression were incorporated into the variance-covariance matrix using prior information on parameters. Thus the uncertainty analysis was an outcome of calibrating the parameters to available observations and to information that the modeler provided. A water budget and model-fit statistical criteria were used to assess parameter sets so that prediction uncertainty was not overestimated. Because of the effects of parameter uncertainty, the size of the probabilistic contributing areas for each well center for both average and maximum pumping rates was larger than the size of the deterministic contributing areas for the well center. Thus, some areas not in the deterministic contributing area may actually be in the contributing area, including additional areas of urban and agricultural land use. Generally, areas closest to the well centers with short groundwater traveltimes are associated with higher probabilities, whereas areas distant from the well centers with long groundwater traveltimes are associated with lower probabilities. The deterministic contributing areas generally corresponded to areas associated with high probabilities (greater than 50 percent). Areas associated with low probabilities extended long distances along groundwater divides in the uplands remote from the well centers.

Rhode Island↗