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At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Spatial close-kin mark-recapture models applied to terrestrial species with continuous natal dispersal

Close-kin mark–recapture (CKMR) methods use information on genetic relatedness among individuals to estimate demographic parameters. An individual's genotype can be considered a ‘recapture’ of each of its parent's genotype, and the frequency of kin-pair matches detected in a population sample can directly inform estimates of abundance. CKMR inference procedures require analysts to define kinship probabilities in functional forms, which inevitably involve simplifying assumptions. Among others, population structure can have a strong influence on how kinship probabilities are formulated. Many terrestrial species are philopatric or face barriers to dispersal, and not accounting for dispersal limitation in kinship probabilities, can create substantial bias if sampling is also spatially structured (e.g. via harvest). We present a spatially explicit formulation of CKMR that corrects for incomplete mixing by incorporating natal dispersal distances and spatial distribution of individuals into the kinship probabilities. We used individual-based simulations to evaluate the accuracy of abundance estimates obtained with one spatially naïve and two spatially explicit CKMR models across six scenarios with distinct spatial patterns of relative abundance and sampling probability. Estimates of abundance obtained with a CKMR model naïve to spatial structure were negatively biased when sampling was spatially biased. Incorporating patterns of natal dispersal in the kinship probabilities helped address this bias, but estimates were not always accurate depending on the model used and the scenario considered. Incorporating natal dispersal into spatially structured CKMR models can address the bias created by population structure and heterogeneous sampling but will often require additional assumptions and auxiliary data (e.g. relative abundance indices). The models shown here were designed for terrestrial species with continuous patterns of natal dispersal and high year-to-year site fidelity but could be extended to other species.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Genetic and environmental indicators of climate change vulnerability for desert bighorn sheep

Assessments of organisms’ vulnerability to potential climatic shifts are increasingly common. Such assessments are often conducted at the species level and focused primarily on the magnitude of anticipated climate change (i.e., climate exposure). However, wildlife management would benefit from population-level assessments that also incorporate measures of local or regional potential for organismal adaptation to change. Estimates of genetic diversity, gene flow, and landscape connectivity can address this need and complement climate exposure estimates to establish management priorities at broad to local scales. We provide an example of this holistic approach for desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) within and surrounding lands administered by the U.S. National Park Service. We used genetic and environmental data from 62 populations across the southwestern U.S. to delineate genetic structure, evaluate relationships between genetic diversity and isolation, and estimate relative climate vulnerability for populations as a function of five variables associated with species’ responses to climate change: genetic diversity, genetic isolation, geographic isolation, forward climate velocity within a population’s habitat patch (a measure of geographic movement rate required for an organism to maintain constant climate conditions), and maximum elevation within the habitat patch (a measure of current climate stress, as lower maximum elevation is associated with higher temperature, lower precipitation, and lower population persistence). Genetic structure analyses revealed a high-level division between populations in southeastern Utah and populations in the remainder of the study area, which were further differentiated into four lower-level genetic clusters. Genetic diversity decreased with population isolation, whereas genetic differentiation increased, but these patterns were stronger for native populations than for translocated populations. Populations exhibited large variation in predicted vulnerability across the study area with respect to all variables, but native populations occupying relatively intact landscapes, such as Death Valley and Grand Canyon national parks, had the lowest overall vulnerability. These results provide local and regional context for conservation and management decisions regarding bighorn populations in a changing climate. Our study further demonstrates how assessments combining multiple factors could allow a more integrated response, such as increasing efforts to maintain connectivity and thus potential for adaptation in areas experiencing rapid climate change.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2024

Establishment of terrestrial mammals on former reservoir beds following large dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA

Terrestrial wildlife species are important yet often overlooked taxa in the recovery of ecosystems following dam removal. Their presence can shape ecosystem recovery, signal restoration of ecosystem function, and influence food web dynamics and nutrient transfer. We used camera traps to examine seasonal use of two former reservoir beds and an upstream reference reach by the mammalian community following the removal of two large dams on the Elwha River, Washington, USA. For certain taxa, we compared current species use to data collected prior to dam removal. Camera traps revealed use by at least fifteen mammal species, including but not limited to American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), Columbian black-tailed deer ( Odocoileus hemionus columbianus ), Roosevelt elk ( Cervus elaphus roosevelti ), puma ( Puma concolor ), coyotes ( Canis latrans ), bobcats ( Lynx rufus ), and snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ). Coyotes were found mostly lower in the watershed outside the Olympic National Park boundary, while other species were distributed throughout the restoration area. We did not see major differences in species composition between the restoration areas and the upstream reference reach, though number of detections across study reaches differed for most species. Unlike previous findings, black bears were observed across all seasons in this study, suggesting a shift in seasonal use since dam removal. Full restoration of the terrestrial wildlife community could take decades to unfold, but early patterns demonstrate rapid establishment and use by wildlife on new riparian surfaces that are expected to continue to evolve with restoration of fish and vegetation communities.

Washingotn↗
USGS2021

Vegetation community monitoring: Species composition and biophysical gradients in Klamath Network parks

The Klamath Network of the National Park Service consists of six park units located in northern California and southern Oregon. The Network began implementing a vegetation monitoring protocol in 2011 to identify ecologically significant vegetation trends in the parks. The premise of the protocol is that multivariate analyses of species composition data is the most robust early detection means for identifying vegetation change over time. Here we present these community metrics, based on our initial sampling efforts. We use these metrics to establish a baseline for comparison in future trend analysis, and to evaluate the adequacy of the protocol for meeting the Network’s objectives of detecting temporal changes across contrasting vegetation types. The park landscapes were subdivided into three strata: Matrix (low- to mid-elevation upland habitats), Riparian (within 10 meters of a perennial stream), and High-Elevation (above a predefined elevation, park specific). Across the three strata, we established a total of 241 permanent plots at random locations to measure complete species composition and cover. We describe baseline biophysical conditions and relate them to the data obtained from all 241 plots using ordination analyses. The unconstrained gradient analyses were moderately robust at illustrating the relationships among plots and correlating them to environmental gradients. We also prepared species accumulation curves representing gamma diversity, which showed overall species richness, and also illustrated how well the observed vs. expected richness values of each stratum were captured by the sampling. Most park/strata were well sampled; for others, we found that additional samples would improve how well the protocol captures the vegetation composition within park/strata. Specifically, all sample frames at Whiskeytown and the High-Elevation sample frames at Lassen were not well sampled. Comparisons of alpha diversity values showed High-Elevations had the lowest diversity, while Riparian areas were by far the most diverse across all parks. The Matrix stratum at Oregon Caves National Monument was also especially diverse and had the highest Matrix alpha diversity we observed in all parks We suggest that after three rounds of sampling, the Network perform analyses to identify possible ways to improve statistical power. These options include adding sites or lengthening the sampling interval. Results of these analyses could support protocol modifications. This report on vegetation composition is the first in a series of analysis and synthesis reports. Future analysis and synthesis reports will analyze structure and function.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2003

Composition, complexity, and tree mortality in riparian forests in the central Western Cascades of Oregon

Riparian forests contribute to the diversity and function of both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. To assess some of these contributions, we compared tree composition, stand complexity, and temporal patterns of tree mortality on permanent plots in seven mature and old-growth stands representing upland forests and forests along low- and mid-order streams in the Western Cascade Range of Oregon. We also assessed recruitment of large wood into stream channels due to tree mortality, both by direct measurement and by estimation from tree mortality and location data. Stands differed in composition due to both stream order and successional stage. Stands on mid-order streams had high abundance of hardwood trees and/or Thuja plicata . Stand complexity (variability in tree diameters, tree life-form diversity, and tree species diversity), was high in stands on mid-order streams and in the upland, old-growth stand. Tree mortality was exceptionally high in six of the seven stands in 1996, the year in which the largest flood during the study occurred. However, only in the one stand on an unconstrained reach of a mid-order stream was mortality primarily due to flooding. Estimated recruitment of wood was much higher from the stand on the unconstrained reach than from the other stands on mid-order streams, suggesting that unconstrained reaches may be important for efforts to maintain or restore large wood in streams.

Oregon↗
USGS2025

Developing biocrust field cultivation techniques for soil restoration: An assessment of bacterial communities

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are a coherent, thin soil surface layer, engineered and inhabited by a diverse community of moss, lichen, cyanobacteria, and other microorganisms. Biocrusts provide critical functions in dryland systems and may be lost from the ecosystem through physical disturbance or other global change drivers. Once biocrusts are lost, natural recovery can occur very slowly. This has led to the development of biocrust rehabilitation strategies, including cultivation of biocrust propagules to inoculate degraded sites. As the need for biocrust restoration grows in scale and across different regions, inoculum cultivation and application methods are being asked to keep up. In this work, we evaluate cyanobacterial community composition and abundance in greenhouse and field cultivation systems, with and without growth substrate and shade treatments. We also consider cultivation of locally and non-locally sourced biocrust inocula at a single cultivation facility on the Colorado Plateau. We found that field cultivation is a viable option for biocrust cultivation. For almost all cyanobacteria, habitat amelioration was necessary for growth in the field. Despite differences in inocula composition following cultivation, restoration outcomes five months after inoculation were poor with no significant increases in cyanobacterial abundance, soil chlorophyll a , or soil exopolysaccharide content. Thus, more work is needed to boost the initial growth and survival of biocrust inocula, regardless of the method of cultivation (i.e., greenhouse or field). Future work focused on assessing opportunities for habitat amelioration during application to improve biocrust establishment during this critical restoration phase would be highly valuable.

Utah↗
USGS2022

Both real-time and long-term environmental data perform well in predicting shorebird distributions in managed habitat

Highly mobile species, such as migratory birds, respond to seasonal and inter-annual variability in resource availability by moving to better habitats. Despite the recognized importance of resource thresholds, species distribution models typically rely on long-term average habitat conditions, mostly because large-extent, temporally-resolved, environmental data are difficult to obtain. Recent advances in remote sensing make it possible to incorporate more frequent measurements of changing landscapes; however, there is often a cost in terms of model building and processing and the added value of such efforts is unknown. Our study tests whether incorporating real-time environmental data increases the predictive ability of distribution models, relative to using long-term average data. We developed and compared distribution models for shorebirds in California's Central Valley based on high temporal resolution (every 16-days), and 17-year long-term average, surface water data. Using abundance-weighted boosted regression trees, we modeled monthly shorebird occurrence as a function of surface water availability, crop type, wetland type, road density, temperature, and bird data source. While modeling with both real-time and long-term average data provided good fit to withheld validation data (0.79 < AUC < 0.89 across taxa), there were small differences in model performance. The best models incorporated long-term average conditions and spatial pattern information for real-time flooding (e.g. perimeter-area ratio of real-time water bodies). There was not a substantial difference in the performance of real-time and long-term average data models within time periods when real-time surface water differed substantially from the long-term average (specifically during drought years 2013-2016) and in intermittently flooded months or locations. Spatial predictions resulting from the models differed most in the southern region of the study area where there is lower water availability, fewer birds, and lower sampling density. Prediction uncertainty in the southern region of the study area highlights the need for increased sampling in this area. Because both sets of data performed similarly, the choice of which data to use may depend on the management context. Real-time data may ultimately be best for guiding dynamic, adaptive conservation actions whereas models based on long-term averages may be more helpful for guiding permanent wetland protection and restoration.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2017

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

Wyoming↗
USGS1974

Population ecology of the mallard: II. Breeding habitat conditions, size of the breeding populations, and production indices

This report, the second in a series on a comprehensive analysis of mallard population data, provides information on mallard breeding habitat, the size and distribution of breeding populations, and indices to production. The information in this report is primarily the result of large-scale aerial surveys conducted during May and July, 1955-73. The history of the conflict in resource utilization between agriculturalists and wildlife conservation interests in the primary waterfowl breeding grounds is reviewed. The numbers of ponds present during the breeding season and the midsummer period and the effects of precipitation and temperature on the number of ponds present are analyzed in detail. No significant cycles in precipitation were detected and it appears that precipitation is primarily influenced by substantial seasonal and random components. Annual estimates (1955-73) of the number of mallards in surveyed and unsurveyed breeding areas provided estimates of the size and geographic distribution of breeding mallards in North America. The estimated size of the mallard breeding population in North America has ranged from a high of 14.4 million in 1958 to a low of 7.1 million in 1965. Generally, the mallard breeding population began to decline after the 1958 peak until 1962, and remained below 10 million birds until 1970. The decline and subsequent low level of the mallard population between 1959 and 1969 .generally coincided with a period of poor habitat conditions on the major breeding grounds. The density of mallards was highest in the Prairie-Parkland Area with an average of nearly 19.2 birds per square mile. The proportion of the continental mallard breeding population in the Prairie-Parkland Area ranged from 30% in 1962 to a high of 600/0 in 1956. The geographic distribution of breeding mallards throughout North America was significantly related to the number of May ponds in the Prairie-Parkland Area . Estimates of midsummer habitat conditions and indices to production from the July Production Survey were studied in detail. Several indices relating to production showed marked declines from west to east in the Prairie-Parkland Area , these are: (1) density of breeding mallards (per square mile and per May pond), (2) brood density (per square mile and per July pond), (3) average brood size (all species combined), and (4) brood survival from class II to class III. An index to late nesting and renesting efforts was highest during years when midsummer water conditions were good. Production rates of many ducks breeding in North America appear to be regulated by both density-dependent and density-independent factors. Spacing of birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area appeared to be a key factor in the density-dependent regulation of the population. The spacing mechanism, in conjunction with habitat conditions, influenced some birds to overfly the primary breeding grounds into less favorable habitats to the north and northwest where the production rate may be suppressed. The production rate of waterfowl in the Prairie Parkland Area seems to be independent of density (after emigration has taken place) because the production index appears to be a linear function of the number of breeding birds in the area. Similarly, the production rate of waterfowl in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba appeared to be independent of density. Production indices in these northern areas appear to be a linear function of the size of the breeding population. Thus, the density and distribution of breeding ducks is probably regulated through a spacing mechanism that is at least partially dependent on measurable environmental factors. The result is a density-dependent process operating to ultimately effect the production and production rate of breeding ducks on a continent-wide basis. Continental production, and therefore the size of the fall population, is probably partially regulated by the number of birds that are distributed north and northwest into environments less favorable for successful reproduction. Thus, spacing of the birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area and the movement of a fraction of the birds out of the prime breeding areas may be key factors in the density-dependent regulation of the total mallard population.

Resource Publication↗
USGS1966

Life history of the gizzard shad, Dorosoma cepedianum (Le Sueur), in western Lake Erie

The rapid increase in the stocks of gizzard shad in Lake Erie since 1950 unquestionably had an important effect on the ecology of the lake. The present study, based on almost 24,000 fish collected by various means in 1952-55 in or near the island area of western Lake Erie was undertaken to provide information on the role of shad in the bionomics of the region. The annulus of the gizzard shad scale is a valid year-mark. It is laid down in May-July, a little later in the older than in the younger fish. The body-scale relation is linear with an intercept of 22.1 mm. on the axis of standard length. Age-groups 0, I, and II were abundantly represented in the samples. Age-group III was much less well represented, and older fish were extremely scarce. The oldest shad seen belonged to the VI-group. The seasonal growth was most rapid in July-August and growth was much reduced or nil in January-April. Males attained the following average standard lengths (in millimeters) at the end of the indicated years of life: 1-141; 2-273; 3-313; 4-343; 5-349. For females these values were 1-140; 2-285; 3-335; 4-364; 5-386. The weight of the gizzard shad increased as the 3.07053 power of the length. The length-weight relation varied seasonally, annually, and, near the spawning season, according to sex and state of gonads. Only a few precocious male and female gizzard shad attain sexual maturity as age-group I. Almost all males and a good percentage of females mature at age II and only rarely are III-group shad immature. Development of the egg and seasonal changes of the ovary are described. Egg production is highest in the II group-average of 378,900 per individual and 689 per gram of body weight. Spawning takes place from early June into July and is most intensive near mid-June. Heaviest spawning is at water temperatures of 67A?F. or more. Early development to the attainment of the adult shape is described; particular attention is given to the development of the alimentary tract. The anatomy of the digestive tract in the adult is described, and comments are offered on the function of such organs as the pharyngeal pouches and the caeca. Tests were made for digestive enzymes in different parts of the tract. The gizzard shad is a filter feeder. Food varies widely with season and locality but consists mostly of phytoplankton and zooplankton.

Fishery Bulletin↗
USGS2022

Decision support for aquatic restoration based on species-specific responses to disturbance

Disturbances to aquatic habitats are not uniformly distributed within the Great Lakes and acute effects can be strongest in nearshore areas where both landscape and within lake effects can have strong influence. Furthermore, different fish species respond to disturbances in different ways. A means to identify and evaluate locations and extent of disturbances that affect fish is needed throughout the Great Lakes. We used partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis to separate “natural” effects on nearshore assemblages from disturbance effects. Species-specific quadratic models of fish abundance as functions of in-lake disturbance or watershed-derived disturbance were developed separately for each of 35 species and lakewide predictions mapped for Lake Erie. Most responses were unimodal and more species decreased in abundance with increasing watershed disturbance than increased. However, eight species increased in abundance with current in-lake disturbance conditions. Optimum Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) abundance occurred at in-lake disturbance values less than the gradient mean, but decreased continuously from minimum watershed disturbance to higher values. Bands of optimum in-lake conditions occurred throughout the eastern and western portions of the Lake Erie nearshore zone; some areas were less disturbed than desirable. However, watershed-derived disturbance conditions were generally poor for Yellow Perch throughout the lake. In contrast, optimum Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) abundance occurred at in-lake disturbance values greater than the gradient mean and continuously increased with increasing watershed disturbance. Smallmouth Bass responses to disturbance indicated that most of the nearshore zone was less disturbed than is desirable and were most abundant in areas that the Yellow Perch response indicated were highly disturbed. Mapping counts of species response models that agreed on the disturbance level in each spatial unit of the nearshore zone showed a fine-scale mosaic of areas in which habitat restoration may benefit many or few species. This tool may assist managers in prioritizing conservation and restoration efforts and evaluating environmental conditions that may be improved.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2022

Avian community response to a novel environment: Commercial forestry in the Campos grasslands of South America

Establishing commercial tree plantations in native grassland ecosystems introduces a different structural and functional vegetation cover type, with expected implications for biodiversity. To better understand biodiversity responses to afforestation, we conducted a resource-use study with birds as a focal group, during the 2013–2014 breeding season in the Northern Campos grasslands of Uruguay. We sampled birds in native environments and plantations of loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda ) and flooded gum ( Eucalyptus grandis ) at different rotation stages. We recorded 103 species during 1,573 visits (10-min, 50-meter radius point counts) to 570 stratified sampling units. Native grasslands and forests exhibited greater diversity and had greater variability in species composition than structurally homogeneous plantations. Avian communities in plantations had distinct species combinations and relative abundances not found in native conditions. Avian communities in older plantations were more similar to native forests while those of newly-planted stands were more like grasslands. However, plantations were dominated by habitat generalists and some forest-dependent species, with negligible use by grassland specialist birds. Our results suggest the best conservation opportunities for grassland-dependent birds in afforested systems of the Campos of Uruguay may depend on diverse landscape-level measures rather than stand-level management practices. Albeit our research constituted a comprehensive assessment of bird taxonomic alpha and beta diversity, research on complementary diversity facets and multi-scale resource selection and demographic studies are needed to better understand the fitness implications for conserving and managing grassland birds in afforested landscapes.

Campos grasslands↗
USGS2019

Long‐term plant community trajectories suggest divergent responses of native and non‐native perennials and annuals to vegetation removal and seeding treatments

Land managers frequently apply vegetation removal and seeding treatments to restore ecosystem function following woody plant encroachment, invasive species spread, and wildfire. However, the long‐term outcome of these treatments is unclear due to a lack of widespread monitoring. We quantified how vegetation removal (via wildfire or management) with or without seeding and environmental conditions related to plant community composition change over time in 491 sites across the intermountain western United States. Most community metrics took over 10 years to reach baseline conditions posttreatment, with the slowest recovery observed for native perennial cover. Total cover was initially higher in sites with seeding after vegetation removal than sites with vegetation removal alone, but increased faster in sites with vegetation removal only. Seeding after vegetation removal was associated with rapidly increasing non‐native perennial cover and decreasing non‐native annual cover. Native perennial cover increased in vegetation removal sites irrespective of seeding and was suppressed by increasing non‐native perennial cover. Seeding was associated with higher non‐native richness across the monitoring period as well as initially higher, then declining, total and native species richness. Several cover and richness recovery metrics were positively associated with mean annual precipitation and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, whereas relationships with weather extremes depended on the lag time and season. Our results suggest that key plant groups, such as native perennials and non‐native annuals, respond to restoration treatments at divergent timescales and with different sensitivities to climate and weather variation.

Utah↗
USGS2006

Long-term dynamics of production, respiration, and net CO 2 exchange in two sagebrush-steppe ecosystems

We present a synthesis of long-term measurements of CO 2 exchange in 2 US Intermountain West sagebrush-steppe ecosystems. The locations near Burns, Oregon (1995–2001), and Dubois, Idaho (1996–2001), are part of the AgriFlux Network of the Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture. Measurements of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange ( F c ) during the growing season were continuously recorded at flux towers using the Bowen ratio-energy balance technique. Data were partitioned into gross primary productivity ( P g ) and ecosystem respiration ( R e ) using the light-response function method. Wintertime fluxes were measured during 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 and used to model fluxes in other winters. Comparison of daytime respiration derived from light-response analysis with nighttime tower measurements showed close correlation, with daytime respiration being on the average higher than nighttime respiration. Maxima of P g and R e at Burns were both 20 g CO 2 ·m −2 ·d −1 in 1998. Maxima of P g and R e at Dubois were 37 and 35 g CO 2 ·m −2 ·d −1 , respectively, in 1997. Mean annual gross primary production at Burns was 1 111 (range 475–1 715) g CO 2 ·m −2 ·y −1 or about 30% lower than that at Dubois (1 602, range 963–2 162 g CO 2 ·m −2 ·y −1 ). Across the years, both ecosystems were net sinks for atmospheric CO 2 with a mean net ecosystem CO 2 exchange of 82 g CO 2 ·m −2 ·y −1 at Burns and 253 g CO 2 ·m −2 ·y −1 at Dubois, but on a yearly basis either site could be a C sink or source, mostly depending on precipitation timing and amount. Total annual precipitation is not a good predictor of carbon sequestration across sites. Our results suggest that F c should be partitioned into P g and R e components to allow prediction of seasonal and yearly dynamics of CO 2 fluxes.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2018

Changes in structure and physiological functioning due to experimentally enhanced precipitation seasonality in a widespread shrub species

Semi-arid shrub steppe occupies a vast geographic range that is characterized in part by distinct seasonal patterns in precipitation. Few studies have evaluated how variability in both the amount and timing of precipitation affect the structure and physiology of shrubs in these systems. We quantified changes in foliar crown parameters, xylem anatomy, gas exchange, and hydraulic transport capacity in deep-rooted Artemisia tridentata shrubs following 20 years of experimental manipulations in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation. We hypothesized that shrub growth (total leaf area per shrub and cover of shrub community), hydraulic transport efficiency, and gas exchange would increase in shrubs in irrigated plots compared to non-irrigated control plots, especially for irrigation applied in winter rather than summer. We also predicted similar changes in xylem anatomy (ring width, vessel size and frequency). Most treatment responses entailed changes in plant structure, and were generally consistent with our hypotheses: total-shrub leaf area, shrub basal area, canopy cover, and maximum sapwood-specific branch hydraulic conductivity were more than 2× greater in shrubs in winter-irrigated compared to control plots, while summer irrigation had few effects on these variables. Irrigation in either season did not affect xylem vessel size, but did increase xylem ring width by ~ 2 × and decreased xylem vessel frequency by about half. Anatomical, morphological, and stand-level abundance of A. tridentata appeared much more responsive to irrigation than state changes in gas exchange, particularly when the extra water is received during winter. Thus, it appears for sagebrush that seasonal timing is at least as important as the amount of precipitation, and that responses to changes in precipitation timing occur through changes in carbon allocation more so than changes in leaf-level carbon gain.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS2010

Use of Continuous Monitors and Autosamplers to Predict Unmeasured Water-Quality Constituents in Tributaries of the Tualatin River, Oregon

Management of water quality in streams of the United States is becoming increasingly complex as regulators seek to control aquatic pollution and ecological problems through Total Maximum Daily Load programs that target reductions in the concentrations of certain constituents. Sediment, nutrients, and bacteria, for example, are constituents that regulators target for reduction nationally and in the Tualatin River basin, Oregon. These constituents require laboratory analysis of discrete samples for definitive determinations of concentrations in streams. Recent technological advances in the nearly continuous, in situ monitoring of related water-quality parameters has fostered the use of these parameters as surrogates for the labor intensive, laboratory-analyzed constituents. Although these correlative techniques have been successful in large rivers, it was unclear whether they could be applied successfully in tributaries of the Tualatin River, primarily because these streams tend to be small, have rapid hydrologic response to rainfall and high streamflow variability, and may contain unique sources of sediment, nutrients, and bacteria. This report evaluates the feasibility of developing correlative regression models for predicting dependent variables (concentrations of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and Escherichia coli bacteria) in two Tualatin River basin streams: one draining highly urbanized land (Fanno Creek near Durham, Oregon) and one draining rural agricultural land (Dairy Creek at Highway 8 near Hillsboro, Oregon), during 2002-04. An important difference between these two streams is their response to storm runoff; Fanno Creek has a relatively rapid response due to extensive upstream impervious areas and Dairy Creek has a relatively slow response because of the large amount of undeveloped upstream land. Four other stream sites also were evaluated, but in less detail. Potential explanatory variables included continuously monitored streamflow (discharge), stream stage, specific conductance, turbidity, and time (to account for seasonal processes). Preliminary multiple-regression models were identified using stepwise regression and Mallow's Cp, which maximizes regression correlation coefficients and accounts for the loss of additional degrees of freedom when extra explanatory variables are used. Several data scenarios were created and evaluated for each site to assess the representativeness of existing monitoring data and autosampler-derived data, and to assess the utility of the available data to develop robust predictive models. The goodness-of-fit of candidate predictive models was assessed with diagnostic statistics from validation exercises that compared predictions against a subset of the available data. The regression modeling met with mixed success. Functional model forms that have a high likelihood of success were identified for most (but not all) dependent variables at each site, but there were limitations in the available datasets, notably the lack of samples from high-flows. These limitations increase the uncertainty in the predictions of the models and suggest that the models are not yet ready for use in assessing these streams, particularly under high-flow conditions, without additional data collection and recalibration of model coefficients. Nonetheless, the results reveal opportunities to use existing resources more efficiently. Baseline conditions are well represented in the available data, and, for the most part, the models reproduced these conditions well. Future sampling might therefore focus on high flow conditions, without much loss of ability to characterize the baseline. Seasonal cycles, as represented by trigonometric functions of time, were not significant in the evaluated models, perhaps because the baseline conditions are well characterized in the datasets or because the other explanatory variables indirectly incorporate seasonal aspects. Multicollinearity among independent variabl

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

A multistate open robust design: population dynamics, reproductive effort, and phenology of sea turtles from tagging data

Understanding population dynamics, and how it is influenced by exogenous and endogenous factors, is important to the study and conservation of species. Moreover, for migratory species, the phenology and duration of use of a given location can also influence population structure and dynamics. For many species, breeding abundance, survival, and reproductive performance, as well as phenology of nesting, are often the most accessible, and therefore practical, elements of their life history to study. For a population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), we modeled population change for nesters and total adult females, survival, and breeding probability, from 25 years of intensive tagging data. We modeled breeding probability as a function of the number of years since last breeding, and tested for differences between neophyte and experienced nesters. For each year, we also estimated the number of clutches deposited per female, and phenology of use, for neophytes and experienced nesters. In order to implement the analysis we developed a novel generalized multistate open robust design mark-recapture modeling framework, with parameters for survival and transition probabilities, and for each primary period, state structure and arrival, persistence, and detection probabilities. Derived parameters included abundance of observable and unobservable components of the population, residence time, expected arrival and departure periods, and per-period intensity of study area use. Abundance of nesters increased over most of the time series. Survival probability was 0.935 (se = 0.01). All hawksbills skipped at least one year of nesting. Breeding probability increased by skipping a second year, but then decreased thereafter. Subsequent breeding probability was lower for neophyte nesters than for experienced nesters, but the effect was weaker than the effect of years since breeding. Clutch frequency varied by year, with no discernable pattern of differences between neophytes and experienced nesters. Mean arrival and departure dates also varied, with a slight shift of nesting activity to earlier in the season. The multistate open robust design model developed here provides a flexible framework for modeling the dynamics of structured migratory populations, and the phenology and duration of their seasonal use of study areas.

Caribbean, Jumby Bay Leeward Islands, Long Island↗
USGS2022

Offspring sex ratios are male-biased reflecting sex-biased dispersal in Idaho, USA, wolves.

Offspring sex ratios can vary widely across species, and the reasons for such variation have long intrigued ecologists. For group-living animals, predicting offspring sex ratios as a function of group and environmental characteristics can be challenging. Additionally, mortality of group members can upend traditional theory used to explain offspring sex ratios observed in populations. Gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) in Idaho, USA, are an excellent study species for asking questions about offspring sex ratios given their group-living behavior and persistent exposure to human-caused mortality. I hypothesized that offspring sex ratios would be influenced by the characteristics of individuals, groups, and populations. I generated genotypes for 419 adult and 400 pup wolves during 2008–2018. There was a significant male-bias in litters of wolf pups with nearly 12% more male pups born than females. The individual, group, and population variables I considered did not have significant associations with offspring sex ratios. Local resource competition helped explain offspring sex ratios in wolves in my study system, but not local resource enhancement theory. Although female helpers have been shown to help slightly more than males, offspring sex ratios did not favor the helping sex suggesting that the overall benefit of female helpers may have been negligible in wolf groups during my study. Three wolf groups consistently overproduced males, the dispersing sex, suggesting that habitat quality was poor in their territories. The male-biased offspring sex ratios observed throughout this population reflect sex-biased dispersal in wolves in Idaho. Such a pattern suggests breeding females may be reducing local resource competition (e.g., mates and successful reproduction) by producing more males than females.

Idaho↗