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At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Late-Pleistocene and Holocene remains of Hysterocarpus traski (Tule Perch) from Clear Lake, California, and inferred Holocene temperature fluctuations

The remains of scales of Hysterocarpus traski Gibbons (Tule perch) were found throughout a 27.44-m core from Clear Lake. Most scales occurred between the mud surface and deposits approximately 11,000 years old. Changes in growth rates of the animals were examined by measuring scale annuli and applying an empirically established regression of fish length on scale radius. The data indicate a pattern of accelerating growth rates, reaching a peak between ⋍4000 and 2800 BP. After ⋍2800 BP, growth rates decline markedly. Because the growth rates of these animals are essentially dependent on temperature, the changes observed in the patterns of growth probably reflect changes in climate in the northern Coast Range. The general pattern of inferred temperature increase during the early and middle Holocene, ending between ⋍4000 and 2800 BP, is consistent with evidence from tree-line studies and palynology indicating higher temperatures in parts of the western United States during this period.

California↗

USGS2014

Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth׳s largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium–thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

Deep Sea Research Part A, Oceanographic Research P↗

USGS2026

Transit time modeling framework for predicting freshwater salinization in urban catchments

The salinity of inland freshwaters is rising globally, particularly in urban watersheds where winter road deicers are widely applied. Attributing stream salinity dynamics to specific sources and transport pathways remains challenging due to episodic salt inputs, engineered drainage, and strong coupling between hydrology and subsurface storage. We present a modeling framework that couples climate-driven deicer build-up and wash-off with transient transit time distribution theory to simulate salt transport through drainage, interflow, and groundwater pathways. Applied to an urban watershed in Northern Virginia (USA), the model reproduces ten years of high-frequency stream salinity measurements across daily-to-decadal timescales. The calibrated model implies an average deicer application of 206 tonnes Cl −1 yr −1 , or roughly one 20 kg bag of rock salt person −1 yr −1 when normalized by the 20,000 people living in the watershed. In winter months, higher infiltration routes a large fraction of snowmelt and deicers into shallow subsurface pathways, enhancing vadose-zone and interflow contributions to stream salinity. Limited subsurface storage capacity and seasonal hydrologic turnover flush excess chloride from the vadose zone and groundwater during subsequent summer storms. By linking climate-driven deicer inputs, hydrologic connectivity, and stream water age, the framework provides a transferable basis for diagnosing and managing freshwater salinization in urban watersheds.

Virginia↗

USGS2001

Trends in evaporation and surface cooling in the Mississippi River basin

A synthesis of available data for the Mississippi River basin (area 3 ?? 106 km2) reveals an upward trend in evaporation during recent decades, driven primarily by increases in precipitation and secondarily by human water use. A cloud-related decrease in surface net radiation appears to have accompanied the precipitation trend. Resultant evaporative and radiative cooling of the land and lower atmosphere quantitatively explains downward trends in observed pan evaporation. These cooling tendencies also reconcile the observed regional atmospheric cooling with the anticipated regional "greenhouse warming." If recent high levels of precipitation (which correlate with the North Atlantic Oscillation) are mainly caused by an internal climatic fluctuation, an eventual return to normal precipitation could reveal heretofore-unrealized warming in the basin. If, instead, they are caused by some unidentified forcing that will continue to grow in the future, then continued intensification of water cycling and suppression of warming in the basin could result.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2002

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce ecosystem in Canada, the age-dependent pattern of the simulated vegetation carbon was verified with inventory data on aboveground growth of Alaskan black spruce forests, and the model was applied to a postfire chronosequence in interior Alaska. The comparison between the simulated soil temperature and field-based estimates during the growing season (May to September) of 1997 revealed that the model was able to accurately simulate monthly temperatures at 10 cm ( R > 0.93) for control and burned stands of the fire chronosequence. Similarly, the simulated and field-based estimates of soil respiration for control and burned stands were correlated ( R = 0.84 and 0.74 for control and burned stands, respectively). The simulated and observed decadal to century-scale dynamics of soil temperature and carbon dynamics, which are represented by mean monthly values of these variables during the growing season, were correlated among stands ( R = 0.93 and 0.71 for soil temperature at 20- and 10-cm depths, R = 0.95 and 0.91 for soil respiration and soil carbon, respectively). Sensitivity analyses indicate that along with differences in fire and climate history a number of other factors influence the response of carbon dynamics to fire disturbance. These factors include nitrogen fixation, the growth of moss, changes in the depth of the organic layer, soil drainage, and fire severity.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Large streamflow differences between forested and urbanized watersheds in the energy-limited eastern United States: The role of evapotranspiration and impervious surfaces

Urban forests and other green infrastructures have been viewed as part of the “Nature-based Solutions” (NbS) to mitigate emerging urban environmental change. This study focuses on the role of evapotranspiration (ET) in regulating water balances of small watersheds in the eastern United States. We compared streamflow and ET patterns at daily, monthly and annual scales and linked these hydrological variables to the physical properties of 11 paired watersheds dominated by forests (FW) or urban (UW) land covers. The annual precipitation ranged from 1028 mm to 1683 mm and potential ET (PET) from 815 mm to 1450 mm. The mean annual flow/precipitation (Q/P) ratios were 0.26 ± 0.13 and 0.41 ± 0.1 for FW and UW, respectively. Overall, UW had lower annual ET (772 mm in UW vs. 947 mm in FW), but higher mean annual and (∼58% higher), monthly water yield (17%–186% higher), and peakflow rates (up to 100 times higher) than FW. The streamflow differences between FW and UW were most pronounced during the growing season and early winter (June-November). The mean Q/P ratios for 30 large hurricane events (2016–2021) were 0.12 ± 0.11 and 0.38 ± 0.23 for FW and UW, respectively. The flow rates in the dormant season (around December-May) in UW were similar or lower than FW. We developed conceptual models to explain the seasonal and storm event streamflow differences using background climate (PET), ET, and land surface characteristics. Urban NbS designs should factor in strategies that maximize ET while minimizing impervious surfaces enhancing watershed “sponge” and “pump” functions.

eastern United States↗

USGS2016

Synthesising empirical results to improve predictions of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response

Advances in research into wildfire impacts on runoff and erosion have demonstrated increasing complexity of controlling factors and responses, which, combined with changing fire frequency, present challenges for modellers. We convened a conference attended by experts and practitioners in post-wildfire impacts, meteorology and related research, including modelling, to focus on priority research issues. The aim was to improve our understanding of controls and responses and the predictive capabilities of models. This conference led to the eight selected papers in this special issue. They address aspects of the distinctiveness in the controls and responses among wildfire regions, spatiotemporal rainfall variability, infiltration, runoff connectivity, debris flow formation and modelling applications. Here we summarise key findings from these papers and evaluate their contribution to improving understanding and prediction of post-wildfire runoff and erosion under changes in climate, human intervention and population pressure on wildfire-prone areas.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2018

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2025

Sustaining Namāēw (Lake Sturgeon): Partner-led climate adaptation for Indigenous fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Namāēw (Menominee; Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens ) have long supported Indigenous culture and food sovereignty but have declined by over 80% in the Laurentian Great Lakes, exacerbating their sensitivity to climate change. Following interest from Indigenous leaders, we initiated a partnership-driven effort to (1) assess climate effects and (2) develop potential adaptation options for Namāēw using a participatory, transdisciplinary approach that combines multiple ways of knowing. Through a literature review and nine semistructured conversations with officials from Indigenous Nations and organizations in the Great Lakes, we identified central themes including access, culture, and fish persistence. Other concerns included habitat, food web shifts, and water quality. Prominent adaptation themes involved population assessments, stocking, regulations, habitat restoration, interagency coordination, and cultural advocacy. These findings underscore the importance of partnership-driven research to support Indigenous fisheries through knowledge coproduction and equitable adaptation. Our approach provides a model to inform stewardship planning for fisheries that are facing global change.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2009

Flood effects on an Alaskan stream restoration project: the value of long-term monitoring

On a nationwide basis, few stream restoration projects have long-term programs in place to monitor the effects of floods on channel and floodplain configuration and floodplain vegetation, but long-term and event-based monitoring is required to measure the effects of these stochastic events and to use the knowledge for adaptive management and the design of future projects. This paper describes a long-term monitoring effort (15 years) on a stream restoration project in Glen Creek in Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska. The stream channel and floodplain of Glen Creek had been severely degraded over a period of 80 years by placer mining for gold, which left many reaches with unstable and incised streambeds without functioning vegetated floodplains. The objectives of the original project, initiated in 1991, were to develop and test methods for the hydraulic design of channel and floodplain morphology and for floodplain stabilization and riparian habitat recovery, and to conduct research and monitoring to provide information for future projects in similar degraded watersheds. Monitoring methods included surveyed stream cross-sections, vegetation plots, and aerial, ground, and satellite photos. In this paper we address the immediate and outlying effects of a 25-year flood on the stream and floodplain geometry and riparian vegetation. The long-term monitoring revealed that significant channel widening occurred following the flood, likely caused by excessive upstream sediment loading and the fairly slow development of floodplain vegetation in this climate. Our results illustrated design flaws, particularly in regard to identification and analysis of sediment sources and the dominant processes of channel adjustment.

Alaska↗

USGS1992

Evaluation of selected methods for determining streamflow during periods of ice effect

Seventeen methods for estimating ice-affected streamflow are evaluated for potential use with the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station network. The methods evaluated were identified by written responses from U.S. Geological Survey field offices and by a comprehensive literature search. The methods selected and techniques used for applying the methods are described in this report. The methods are evaluated by comparing estimated results with data collected at three streamflow-gaging stations in Iowa during the winter of 1987-88. Discharge measurements were obtained at 1- to 5-day intervals during the ice-affected periods at the three stations to define an accurate baseline record. Discharge records were compiled for each method based on data available, assuming a 6-week field schedule. The methods are classified into two general categories-subjective and analytical--depending on whether individual judgment is necessary for method application. On the basis of results of the evaluation for the three Iowa stations, two of the subjective methods (discharge ratio and hydrographic-and-climatic comparison) were more accurate than the other subjective methods and approximately as accurate as the best analytical method. Three of the analytical methods (index velocity, adjusted rating curve, and uniform flow) could potentially be used at streamflow-gaging stations, where the need for accurate ice-affected discharge estimates justifies the expense of collecting additional field data. One analytical method (ice-adjustment factor) may be appropriate for use at stations with extremely stable stage-discharge ratings and measuring sections. Further research is needed to refine the analytical methods. The discharge-ratio and multiple-regression methods produce estimates of streamflow for varying ice conditions using information obtained from the existing U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging network.

Iowa↗

USGS2003

Possible Juventae Chasma subice volcanic eruptions and Maja Valles ice outburst floods on Mars: Implications of Mars Global surveyor crater densities, geomorphology, and topography

This article discusses image, topographic, and spectral data from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission that provide new information concerning the surface age, geomorphology, and topography of the Juventae Chasma/Maja Valles system. Our study utilizes data from two instruments on board MGS: images from the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and topography from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Within Maja Valles we can now observe depositional bars with megaripples that unequivocally show catastrophic floods occurred in the channel. Viking impact crater densities indicated the chasma and channel floor areas were all one age (late Hesperian to Amazonian); however, MOC data indicate a marked difference in densities of small craters between Juventae Chasma, Maja Valles, and the channel debouchment area in Chryse Planitia basin. Although other processes may contribute to crater variability, young resurfacing events in the chasma and episodes of recent erosion at Maja Valles channel head may possibly account for the disparate crater densities along the chasma/channel system. Relatively young volcanic eruptions may have contributed to resurfacing; as in Juventae Chasma, a small possible volcanic cone of young dark material is observed. MOC data also indicate previously unknown interior layered deposit mounds in the chasma that indicate at least two periods of mound formation. Finally, MOLA topography shows that the entire floor of the chasma lies at the same elevation as the channel debouchment area in Chryse basin, resulting in a 3-km-high barrier to water flow out of the chasma. Blocked ponded water would rapidly freeze in the current (and likely past) climate of Mars. For catastrophic flow to occur in Maja Valles, some process is required to melt ice and induce floods out of the chasma. We suggest subice volcanic eruption and calculate estimates of water discharges and volumes that these eruptions might have produced.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2009

USGS Science: Addressing Our Nation's Challenges

With 6.6 billion people already living on Earth, and that number increasing every day, human influence on our planet is ever more apparent. Changes to the natural world combined with increasing human demands threaten our health and safety, our national security, our economy, and our quality of life. As a planet and a Nation, we face unprecedented challenges: loss of critical and unique ecosystems, the effects of climate change, increasing demand for limited energy and mineral resources, increasing vulnerability to natural hazards, the effects of emerging diseases on wildlife and human health, and growing needs for clean water. The time to respond to these challenges is now, but policymakers and decisionmakers face difficult choices. With competing priorities to balance, and potentially serious - perhaps irreversible - consequences at stake, our leaders need reliable scientific information to guide their decisions. As the Nation's earth and natural science agency, the USGS monitors and conducts scientific research on natural hazards and resources and how these elements and human activities influence our environment. Because the challenges we face are complex, the science needed to better understand and deal with these challenges must reflect the complex interplay among natural and human systems. With world-class expertise in biology, geology, geography, hydrology, geospatial information, and remote sensing, the USGS is uniquely capable of conducting the comprehensive scientific research needed to better understand the interdependent interactions of Earth's systems. Every day, the USGS helps decisionmakers to minimize loss of life and property, manage our natural resources, and protect and enhance our quality of life. This brochure provides examples of the challenges we face and how USGS science helps decisionmakers to address these challenges.

General Information Product↗

USGS2016

Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California

Public Summary The coastal region of California supports a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries. Tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays within coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise (SLR) are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years. Our study examined the projected effects of three recent SLR scenarios produced for the West Coast of North America on tidal marshes in California. We compiled physical and biological data, including coastal topography, tidal inundation, plant composition, and sediment accretion to project how SLR may alter these ecosystems in the future. The goal of our research was to provide results that support coastal management and conservation efforts across California. Under a low SLR scenario, all study sites remained vegetated tidal wetlands, with most sites showing little elevation and vegetation change relative to sea level. At most sites, mid SLR projections led to increases in low marsh habitat at the expense of middle and high marsh habitat. Marshes at Morro Bay and Tijuana River Estuary were the most vulnerable to mid SLR with many areas becoming intertidal mudflat. Under a high SLR scenario, most sites were projected to lose vegetated habitat, eventually converting to intertidal mudflats. Our results suggest that California marshes are vulnerable to major habitat shifts under mid or high rates of SLR, especially in the latter part of the century. Loss of vegetated tidal marshes in California due to SLR is expected to impact ecosystem services that are dependent on coastal wetlands such as wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, improved water quality, and coastal protection from storms.

California↗

USGS1983

Precipitation-runoff modeling system; user's manual

The concepts, structure, theoretical development, and data requirements of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) are described. The precipitation-runoff modeling system is a modular-design, deterministic, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on streamflow, sediment yields, and general basin hydrology. Basin response to normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water balance relationships, flow regimes, flood peaks and volumes, soil-water relationships, sediment yields, and groundwater recharge. Parameter-optimization and sensitivity analysis capabilites are provided to fit selected model parameters and evaluate their individual and joint effects on model output. The modular design provides a flexible framework for continued model system enhancement and hydrologic modeling research and development. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

The footprint of Alaskan tundra fires during the past half-century: implications for surface properties and radiative forcing

Recent large and frequent fires above the Alaskan arctic circle have forced a reassessment of the ecological and climatological importance of fire in arctic tundra ecosystems. Here we provide a general overview of the occurrence, distribution, and ecological and climate implications of Alaskan tundra fires over the past half-century using spatially explicit climate, fire, vegetation and remote sensing datasets for Alaska. Our analyses highlight the importance of vegetation biomass and environmental conditions in regulating tundra burning, and demonstrate that most tundra ecosystems are susceptible to burn, providing the environmental conditions are right. Over the past two decades, fire perimeters above the arctic circle have increased in size and importance, especially on the North Slope, indicating that future wildfire projections should account for fire regime changes in these regions. Remote sensing data and a literature review of thaw depths indicate that tundra fires have both positive and negative implications for climatic feedbacks including a decadal increase in albedo radiative forcing immediately after a fire, a stimulation of surface greenness and a persistent long-term (>10 year) increase in thaw depth. In order to address the future impact of tundra fires on climate, a better understanding of the control of tundra fire occurrence as well as the long-term impacts on ecosystem carbon cycling will be required.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

Interactions between groundwater and surface water: The state of the science

The interactions between groundwater and surface water are complex. To understand these interactions in relation to climate, landform, geology, and biotic factors, a sound hydrogeoecological framework is needed. All these aspects are synthesized and exemplified in this overview. In addition, the mechanisms of interactions between groundwater and surface water (GW-SW) as they affect recharge-discharge processes are comprehensively outlined, and the ecological significance and the human impacts of such interactions are emphasized. Surface-water and groundwater ecosystems are viewed as linked components of a hydrologic continuum leading to related sustainability issues. This overview concludes with a discussion of research needs and challenges facting this evolving field. The biogeochemical processes within the upper few centimeters of sediments beneath nearly all surface-water bodies (hyporheic zone) have a profound effect on the chemistry of the water interchange, and here is where most of the recent research has been focusing. However, to advance conceptual and other modeling of GW-SW systems, a broader perspective of such interactions across and between surface-water bodies is needed, including multidimensional analyses, interface hydraulic characterization and spatial variability, site-to-region regionalization approaches, as well as cross-disciplinary collaborations.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS1996

Phytoplankton bloom dynamics in coastal ecosystems: A review with some general lessons from sustained investigation of San Francisco Bay, California

Phytoplankton blooms are prominent features of biological variability in shallow coastal ecosystems such as estuaries, lagoons, bays, and tidal rivers. Long-term observation and research in San Francisco Bay illustrates some patterns of phytoplankton spatial and temporal variability and the underlying mechanisms of this variability. Blooms are events of rapid production and accumulation of phytoplankton biomass that are usually responses to changing physical forcings originating in the coastal ocean (e.g., tides), the atmosphere (wind), or on the land surface (precipitation and river runoff). These physical forcings have different timescales of variability, so algal blooms can be short-term episodic events, recurrent seasonal phenomena, or rare events associated with exceptional climatic or hydrologic conditions. The biogeochemical role of phytoplankton primary production is to transform and incorporate reactive inorganic elements into organic forms, and these transformations are rapid and lead to measurable geochemical change during blooms. Examples include the depletion of inorganic nutrients (N, P, Si), supersaturation of oxygen and removal of carbon dioxide, shifts in the isotopic composition of reactive elements (C, N), production of climatically active trace gases (methyl bromide, dimethylsulfide), changes in the chemical form and toxicity of trace metals (As, Cd, Ni, Zn), changes in the biochemical composition and reactivity of the suspended particulate matter, and synthesis of organic matter required for the reproduction and growth of heterotrophs, including bacteria, zooplankton, and benthic consumer animals. Some classes of phytoplankton play special roles in the cycling of elements or synthesis of specific organic molecules, but we have only rudimentary understanding of the forces that select for and promote blooms of these species. Mounting evidence suggests that the natural cycles of bloom variability are being altered on a global scale by human activities including the input of toxic contaminants and nutrients, manipulation of river flows, and translocation of species. This hypothesis will be a key component of our effort to understand global change at the land-sea interface. Pursuit of this hypothesis will require creative approaches for distinguishing natural and anthropogenic sources of phytoplankton population variability, as well as recognition that the modes of human disturbance of coastal bloom cycles operate interactively and cannot be studied as isolated processes.

California↗