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The surface elevation table and marker horizon technique: A protocol for monitoring wetland elevation dynamics

The National Park Service, in response to the growing evidence and awareness of the effects of climate change on federal lands, determined that monitoring wetland elevation change is a top priority in North Atlantic Coastal parks (Stevens et al, 2010). As a result, the NPS Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network (NCBN) in collaboration with colleagues from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a protocol for monitoring wetland elevation change and other processes important for determining the viability of wetland communities. Although focused on North Atlantic Coastal parks, this document is applicable to all coastal and inland wetland regions. Wetlands exist within a narrow range of elevation which is influenced by local hydrologic conditions. For coastal wetlands in particular, local hydrologic conditions may be changing as sea levels continue to rise. As sea level rises, coastal wetland systems may respond by building elevation to maintain favorable hydrologic conditions for their survival. This protocol provides the reader with instructions and guidelines on designing a monitoring plan or study to: A) Quantify elevation change in wetlands with the Surface Elevation Table (SET). B) Understand the processes that influence elevation change, including vertical accretion (SET and Marker Horizon methods). C) Survey the wetland surface and SET mark to a common reference datum to allow for comparing sample stations to each other and to local tidal datums. D) Survey the SET mark to monitor its relative stability. This document is divided into two parts; the main body that presents an overview of all aspects of monitoring wetland elevation dynamics, and a collection of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) that describes in detail how to perform or execute each step of the methodology. Detailed instruction on the installation, data collection, data management and analysis are provided in this report and associated SOP’s. A better understanding of these processes will help to determine the present and future viability of coastal wetlands managed by NPS and can help address measures that will ensure these communities exist into the future.

Natural Resource Report↗

Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk 1,2 . This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors 3 . Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes and timescales of this increase are poorly constrained, which limits modelling of coastal vulnerability 4,5 . Here we analyse fossil reef deposits to constrain links between reef ecology and growth potential across more than 400 tropical western Atlantic sites, and assess the magnitudes of resultant above-reef increases in water depth through to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. Our analysis predicts that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will transition into net erosional states by 2040, but that if warming exceeds 2 °C (SSP2–4.5 and higher), nearly all reefs (at least 99%) will be eroding by 2100. The divergent trajectories of reef growth and SLR will thus magnify the effects of SLR; increases in water depth of around 0.3–0.5 m above the present are projected under all warming scenarios by 2060, but depth increases of 0.7–1.2 m are predicted by 2100 under scenarios in which warming surpasses 2 °C. This would increase the risk of flooding along vulnerable reef-fronted coasts and modify nearshore hydrodynamics and ecosystems. Reef restoration offers one pathway back to higher reef growth 6,7 , but would dampen the effects of SLR in 2100 only by around 0.3–0.4 m, and only when combined with aggressive climate mitigation.

Florida↗

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Point Conception, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Point Conception map area is in the westernmost part of the Western Transverse Ranges geologic province, which is north of the California Continental Borderland. Significant clockwise rotation—at least 90°—since the early Miocene has been proposed for the Western Transverse Ranges province, and this region is presently undergoing north-south shortening. The offshore part of the map area lies south of the stee p south and west flanks of t he Santa Ynez Mountains . The crest of the range , which has a maximum elevation of about 340 m in the map area, lies about 5 km north and east of the arcuate shoreline. The onland part of the coastal zone is remote and sparsely populated. The road to Jalama Beach County Park provides the only public coastal access in the entire map area. North of this county park, the coastal zone is part of Vandenberg Air Force Base. South of Jalama Beach County Park, most of the coastal zone is part of the Cojo-Jalama Ranch, purchased by the Nature Conservancy in December 2017. A relatively small part of the coastal zone in the eastern part of the map area lies within the privately owned Hollister Ranch. The nearest significant commercial centers are Lompoc (population, about 42,000), about 10 km north of the map area, and Goleta (population, about 30,000), about 50 km east of the map area. The Union Pacific railroad tracks run west and northwest along the coast through the entire map area, within a few hundred meters of the shoreline. The map area has a long history of petroleum exploration, and the seafloor notably includes large asphalt mounds and pockmarks that result from petroleum seepage. Several offshore gas and oil fields were discovered, and some were developed, in and on the margin of California’s State Waters. Much of the shoreline in the Offshore of Point Conception map area is characterized by narrow beaches that have thin sediment cover above bedrock platforms, backed by low (10- to 20-m-high) cliffs that are capped by a coastal terrace. Beaches are subject to wave erosion during winter storms, followed by gradual sediment recovery or accretion in the late spring, summer, and fall months during the gentler wave climate. The map area lies in the west-central part of the Santa Barbara littoral cell, which is characterized by west-to-east transport of sediment from Point Arguello on the northwest to Hueneme and Mugu Canyons on the southeast. Sediment supply to the map area is mainly from relatively small coastal watersheds, including the Jalama Creek–Espada Creek drainage basin (about 63 km 2 ), as well as Cañada del Jolloru, Black Canyon, Wood Canyon, Cañada del Cojo, and Barranca Honda. Coastal-watershed discharge and sediment load are highly variable, characterized by brief large events during major winter storms and long periods of low (or no) flow and minimal sediment load between storms. In recent (recorded) history, the majority of high-discharge, high-sediment-flux events have been associated with El Niño phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climatic pattern. Following the coastline, the shelf bends to the north and northwest around Point Conception, and the trend of the shelf break changes from about 298° to 241° azimuth. Shelf width ranges from about 5 km south of Point Conception to about 11 km northwest of it; the slope ranges from about 1.0° to 1.2° to about 0.7° south and northwest of Point Conception, respectively. Southwest of Point Conception, the shelf break and upper slope are incised by a 600-m-wide, 20- to 30-m-deep, south-facing trough, one of five heads of the informally named Arguello submarine canyon. The map area is located at a major biogeographic transition zone between the east-west-trending Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight and the northwest-trending central California coast. North of Point Conception, the coast is subjected to high wave exposure from the north, west, and south, as well as consistently strong upwelling that brings cold, nutrient-rich waters to the surface. Southeast of Point Conception, the Santa Barbara Channel is largely protected from strong north swells by Point Conception and from south swells by the Channel Islands; surface waters are warmer, and upwelling is weak and seasonal. Seafloor habitats in the broad Santa Barbara Channel region consist of significant amounts of soft, unconsolidated sediment interspersed with isolated areas of rocky habitat that support kelp-forest communities in the nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deeper water. The potential marine benthic habitat types mapped in the Offshore of Point Conception map area are directly related to its Quaternary geologic history, geomorphology, and active sedimentary processes. These potential habitats lie primarily within the Shelf (continental shelf) but also partly within the Flank (basin flank or continental slope) megahabitats. The fairly homogeneous seafloor of sediment and low-relief bedrock provides characteristic habitat for rockfish, groundfish, crabs, shrimp, and other marine benthic organisms. Several areas of smooth sediment form nearshore terraces that have relatively steep, smooth fronts, which are attractive to groundfish. Below the steep shelf break, soft, unconsolidated sediment is interrupted by the heads of several submarine canyons, gullies, and rills, also good potential habitat for rockfish. The map area includes the large (58.3 km 2 ) Point Conception State Marine Reserve.

California↗

Predictive mapping of seabirds, pinnipeds and cetaceans off the Pacific Coast of Washington

About this report This report supports Washington-led marine spatial planning and responsible stewardship of natural and cultural resources by the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. Washington state agencies and the sanctuary continually seek the best available science to improve management of marine uses and stewardship of resources (Etheridge et al., 2010; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2015a). This report and associated data provide new, state- and sanctuary-requested information on seabird, pinniped, and cetacean distributions. Through spatial planning, information on species distributions can help to identify high-value conservation areas, minimize adverse effects of ocean uses and mitigate impacts of coastal hazards. Correspondingly, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has already begun to use the maps of predicted relative density presented in this report to identify ecologically important areas off the Pacific Coast of Washington and apply this information to plan for offshore renewable energy development. This is the culmination of three years of work to compile information on seabirds, pinnipeds, and cetaceans, and advance a modeling framework that can integrate data sets and develop accurate predictions of relative density for important species off the Pacific Coast of Washington. Previous reports, which evaluated existing datasets of at-sea observations (Menza et al., 2014; Kracker and Menza, 2015) and presented superseded versions of seabird models (Menza et al., 2015), provided base information for this report. In addition to the maps in this published report, all new seabird, pinniped and cetacean predictions will be made publicly available as digital geospatial data through the National Centers for Environmental Information. This research supports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Zone Management Program, a voluntary partnership between the federal government and U.S. coastal and Great Lakes states and territories authorized by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 to address national coastal issues. The act provides the basis for protecting, restoring, and responsibly developing our nation’s diverse coastal communities and resources. To meet the goals of the CZMA, the national program takes a comprehensive approach to coastal resource management – balancing the often competing and occasionally conflicting demands of coastal resource use, economic development, and conservation. A wide range of issues are addressed through the program, including coastal development, water quality, public access, habitat protection, energy facility siting, ocean governance and planning, coastal hazards, and climate change. Accurate maps of seabird and marine mammal distributions are an important tool for making informed management decisions that affect all of these issues.

Washington↗

Evaluation of the groundwater flow model for southern Utah and Goshen Valleys, Utah, updated to conditions through 2011, with new projections and groundwater management simulations

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Southern Utah Valley Municipal Water Association, updated an existing USGS model of southern Utah and Goshen Valleys for hydrologic and climatic conditions from 1991 to 2011 and used the model for projection and groundwater management simulations. All model files used in the transient model were updated to be compatible with MODFLOW-2005 and with the additional stress periods. The well and recharge files had the most extensive changes. Discharge to pumping wells in southern Utah and Goshen Valleys was estimated and simulated on an annual basis from 1991 to 2011. Recharge estimates for 1991 to 2011 were included in the updated model by using precipitation, streamflow, canal diversions, and irrigation groundwater withdrawals for each year. The model was evaluated to determine how well it simulates groundwater conditions during recent increased withdrawals and drought, and to determine if the model is adequate for use in future planning. In southern Utah Valley, the magnitude and direction of annual water-level fluctuation simulated by the updated model reasonably match measured water-level changes, but they do not simulate as much decline as was measured in some locations from 2000 to 2002. Both the rapid increase in groundwater withdrawals and the total groundwater withdrawals in southern Utah Valley during this period exceed the variations and magnitudes simulated during the 1949 to 1990 calibration period. It is possible that hydraulic properties may be locally incorrect or that changes, such as land use or irrigation diversions, occurred that are not simulated. In the northern part of Goshen Valley, simulated water-level changes reasonably match measured changes. Farther south, however, simulated declines are much less than measured declines. Land-use changes indicate that groundwater withdrawals in Goshen Valley are possibly greater than estimated and simulated. It is also possible that irrigation methods, amount of diversions, or other factors have changed that are not simulated or that aquifer properties are incorrectly simulated. The model can be used for projections about the effects of future groundwater withdrawals and managed aquifer recharge in southern Utah Valley, but rapid changes in withdrawals and increasing withdrawals dramatically may reduce the accuracy of the predicted water-level and groundwater-budget changes. The model should not be used for projections in Goshen Valley until additional withdrawal and discharge data are collected and the model is recalibrated if necessary. Model projections indicate large drawdowns of up to 400 feet and complete cessation of natural discharge in some areas with potential future increases in water use. Simulated managed aquifer recharge counteracts those effects. Groundwater management examples indicate that drawdown could be less, and discharge at selected springs could be greater, with optimized groundwater withdrawals and managed aquifer recharge than without optimization. Recalibration to more recent stresses and seasonal stress periods, and collection of new withdrawal, stream, land-use, and discharge data could improve the model fit to water-level changes and the accuracy of predictions.

Utah↗

Cyclic biogeochemical processes and nitrogen fate beneath a subtropical stormwater infiltration basin

A stormwater infiltration basin in north–central Florida, USA, was monitored from 2007 through 2008 to identify subsurface biogeochemical processes, with emphasis on N cycling, under the highly variable hydrologic conditions common in humid, subtropical climates. Cyclic variations in biogeochemical processes generally coincided with wet and dry hydrologic conditions. Oxidizing conditions in the subsurface persisted for about one month or less at the beginning of wet periods with dissolved O 2 and NO 3 - showing similar temporal patterns. Reducing conditions in the subsurface evolved during prolonged flooding of the basin. At about the same time O 2 and NO 3 - reduction concluded, Mn, Fe and SO 4 2 - reduction began, with the onset of methanogenesis one month later. Reducing conditions persisted up to six months, continuing into subsequent dry periods until the next major oxidizing infiltration event. Evidence of denitrification in shallow groundwater at the site is supported by median NO 3 -–N less than 0.016 mg L -1 , excess N 2 up to 3 mg L -1 progressively enriched in δ 15 N during prolonged basin flooding, and isotopically heavy δ 15 N and δ 18 O of NO 3 - (up to 25‰ and 15‰, respectively). Isotopic enrichment of newly infiltrated stormwater suggests denitrification was partially completed within two days. Soil and water chemistry data suggest that a biogeochemically active zone exists in the upper 1.4 m of soil, where organic carbon was the likely electron donor supplied by organic matter in soil solids or dissolved in infiltrating stormwater. The cyclic nature of reducing conditions effectively controlled the N cycle, switching N fate beneath the basin from NO 3 - leaching to reduction in the shallow saturated zone. Results can inform design of functionalized soil amendments that could replace the native soil in a stormwater infiltration basin and mitigate potential NO 3 - leaching to groundwater by replicating the biogeochemical conditions under the observed basin.

Florida↗

Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation

Human alterations to nutrient cycles and herbivore communities are affecting global biodiversity dramatically. Ecological theory predicts these changes should be strongly counteractive: nutrient addition drives plant species loss through intensified competition for light, whereas herbivores prevent competitive exclusion by increasing ground-level light, particularly in productive systems. Here we use experimental data spanning a globally relevant range of conditions to test the hypothesis that herbaceous plant species losses caused by eutrophication may be offset by increased light availability due to herbivory. This experiment, replicated in 40 grasslands on 6 continents, demonstrates that nutrients and herbivores can serve as counteracting forces to control local plant diversity through light limitation, independent of site productivity, soil nitrogen, herbivore type and climate. Nutrient addition consistently reduced local diversity through light limitation, and herbivory rescued diversity at sites where it alleviated light limitation. Thus, species loss from anthropogenic eutrophication can be ameliorated in grasslands where herbivory increases ground-level light.

Nature↗

Computed statistics at streamgages, and methods for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and development of regional regression equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations in Missouri

The weather and precipitation patterns in Missouri vary considerably from year to year. In 2008, the statewide average rainfall was 57.34 inches and in 2012, the statewide average rainfall was 30.64 inches. This variability in precipitation and resulting streamflow in Missouri underlies the necessity for water managers and users to have reliable streamflow statistics and a means to compute select statistics at ungaged locations for a better understanding of water availability. Knowledge of surface-water availability is dependent on the streamflow data that have been collected and analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey for more than 100 years at approximately 350 streamgages throughout Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, computed streamflow statistics at streamgages through the 2010 water year, defined periods of drought and defined methods to estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations, and developed regional regression equations to compute selected streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. Streamflow statistics and flow durations were computed for 532 streamgages in Missouri and in neighboring States of Missouri. For streamgages with more than 10 years of record, Kendall’s tau was computed to evaluate for trends in streamflow data. If trends were detected, the variable length method was used to define the period of no trend. Water years were removed from the dataset from the beginning of the record for a streamgage until no trend was detected. Low-flow frequency statistics were then computed for the entire period of record and for the period of no trend if 10 or more years of record were available for each analysis. Three methods are presented for computing selected streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. The first method uses power curve equations developed for 28 selected streams in Missouri and neighboring States that have multiple streamgages on the same streams. Statistical estimates on one of these streams can be calculated at an ungaged location that has a drainage area that is between 40 percent of the drainage area of the farthest upstream streamgage and within 150 percent of the drainage area of the farthest downstream streamgage along the stream of interest. The second method may be used on any stream with a streamgage that has operated for 10 years or longer and for which anthropogenic effects have not changed the low-flow characteristics at the ungaged location since collection of the streamflow data. A ratio of drainage area of the stream at the ungaged location to the drainage area of the stream at the streamgage was computed to estimate the statistic at the ungaged location. The range of applicability is between 40- and 150-percent of the drainage area of the streamgage, and the ungaged location must be located on the same stream as the streamgage. The third method uses regional regression equations to estimate selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Missouri. This report presents regression equations to estimate frequency statistics for the 10-year recurrence interval and for the N-day durations of 1, 2, 3, 7, 10, 30, and 60 days. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information system software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses based on existing digital geospatial data and previous studies. Spatial analyses for geographical bias in the predictive accuracy of the regional regression equations defined three low-flow regions with the State representing the three major physiographic provinces in Missouri. Region 1 includes the Central Lowlands, Region 2 includes the Ozark Plateaus, and Region 3 includes the Mississippi Alluvial Plain. A total of 207 streamgages were used in the regression analyses for the regional equations. Of the 207 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages, 77 were located in Region 1, 120 were located in Region 2, and 10 were located in Region 3. Streamgages located outside of Missouri were selected to extend the range of data used for the independent variables in the regression analyses. Streamgages included in the regression analyses had 10 or more years of record and were considered to be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities or trends. Regional regression analyses identified three characteristics as statistically significant for the development of regional equations. For Region 1, drainage area, longest flow path, and streamflow-variability index were statistically significant. The range in the standard error of estimate for Region 1 is 79.6 to 94.2 percent. For Region 2, drainage area and streamflow variability index were statistically significant, and the range in the standard error of estimate is 48.2 to 72.1 percent. For Region 3, drainage area and streamflow-variability index also were statistically significant with a range in the standard error of estimate of 48.1 to 96.2 percent. Limitations on the use of estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations are dependent on the method used. The first method outlined for use in Missouri, power curve equations, were developed to estimate the selected statistics for ungaged locations on 28 selected streams with multiple streamgages located on the same stream. A second method uses a drainage-area ratio to compute statistics at an ungaged location using data from a single streamgage on the same stream with 10 or more years of record. Ungaged locations on these streams may use the ratio of the drainage area at an ungaged location to the drainage area at a streamgage location to scale the selected statistic value from the streamgage location to the ungaged location. This method can be used if the drainage area of the ungaged location is within 40 to 150 percent of the streamgage drainage area. The third method is the use of the regional regression equations. The limits for the use of these equations are based on the ranges of the characteristics used as independent variables and that streams must be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities.

Missouri↗

Organic petrology and geochemistry of mudrocks from the lacustrine Lucaogou Formation, Santanghu Basin, northwest China: Application to lake basin evolution

Exploration for tight oil in the frontier Santanghu Basin of northwest China has resulted in recent commercial discoveries sourced from the lacustrine Upper Permian Lucaogou Formation, already considered a “world class source rock” in the Junggar Basin to the west. Here we apply an integrated analytical program to carbonate-dominated mudrocks from the Lucaogou Formation in Santanghu Basin to document the nature of organic matter (OM) in the context of an evolving lake system. The organic-rich samples (TOC 2.8–11.4 wt%; n = 10) were widely spaced from an ~ 200 m cored section, interpreted from textural and mineralogical evidence to document transition from a lower under-filled to an overlying balanced-filled lake. Organic matter is dominated by moderate to strongly fluorescent amorphous material with Type I geochemical signature (HI values 510–755; n = 10) occurring in a continuum from lamellar stringers, 10–20 μm thick, some ≥ 1 mm in length (possible microbial mat; preserved only in lower under-filled section) to finely-disseminated amorphous groundmass intimately intermixed with mineral matrix. Biomarkers for methanotrophs and photosynthetic cyanobacteria indicate a complex microbial consortium. A unicellular prasinophyte green alga(?), similar to Tasmanites in marine rocks, is present as discrete flattened discs 50–100 μm in diameter. Type III OM including vitrinite (some fluorescent) and inertinite also is abundant. Solid bitumen, indicating local kerogen conversion, fills voids and occurs throughout the cored section. Vitrinite reflectance values are 0.47–0.58%, consistent with strong OM fluorescence but may be “suppressed”. Other proxies, e.g., biomarker parameters, indicate the Lucaogou Formation is in the early oil window at this location. On average, slightly more amorphous OM and telalginite are present in the lower section, consistent with a shallow, stratified, saline environment with low sediment dilution. More inertinite is present in the upper section, indicating greater terrestrial influx and consistent with higher quartz and plagioclase content (dominantly authigenic chalcedony and albite). Laminated mudstones in the upper section indicate anoxia prevented bioturbation from benthic grazing, also indicating stratified water column conditions. A decrease upsection in authigenic dolomite with reciprocal increase of ankerite/siderite is consistent with decreasing salinity, as is an overall decrease in gammacerane index values. These observations suggest evolution from a shallow, stratified evaporative (saline) setting to a deeper, stratified freshwater basin with higher water input during Lucaogou deposition. The evolution from an under-filled to balance-filled lake in Santanghu Basin is similar to Lucaogou deposition in Junggar Basin, suggesting similar tectonic and climatic controls. Paleoclimate interpretations from other researchers in this area suggested an evolution from semi-arid to humid conditions during the Roadian; we interpret that the evolution from an under-filled to balanced-filled lake seen in our data is in response to climate change, and may represent increased groundwater delivery to the Santanghu Basin.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Chemical weathering rates of a soil chronosequence on granitic alluvium: III. Hydrochemical evolution and contemporary solute fluxes and rates

Although long-term changes in solid-state compositions of soil chronosequences have been extensively investigated, this study presents the first detailed description of the concurrent hydrochemical evolution and contemporary weathering rates in such sequences. The most direct linkage between weathering and hydrology over 3 million years of soil development in the Merced chronosequence in Central California relates decreasing permeability and increasing hydrologic heterogeneity to the development of secondary argillic horizons and silica duripans. In a highly permeable, younger soil (40 kyr old), pore water solutes reflect seasonal to decadal-scale variations in rainfall and evapotranspiration (ET). This climate signal is strongly damped in less permeable older soils (250 to 600 kyr old) where solutes increasingly reflect weathering inputs modified by heterogeneous flow. Elemental balances in the soils are described in terms of solid state, exchange and pore water reservoirs and input/output fluxes from precipitation, ET, biomass, solute discharge and weathering. Solute mineral nutrients are strongly dependent on biomass variations as evidenced by an apparent negative K weathering flux reflecting aggradation by grassland plants. The ratios of solute Na to other base cations progressively increase with soil age. Discharge fluxes of Na and Si, when integrated over geologic time, are comparable to solid-state mass losses in the soils, implying similar past weathering conditions. Similarities in solute and sorbed Ca/Mg ratios reflect short-term equilibrium with the exchange reservoir. Long-term consistency in solute ratios, when contrasted against progressive decreases in solid-state Ca/Mg, requires an additional Ca source, probably from dry deposition. Amorphous silica precipitates from thermodynamically-saturated pore waters during periods of high evapotranspiration and result in the formation of duripans in the oldest soils. The degree of feldspar and secondary gibbsite and kaolinite saturation varies both spatially and temporally due to the seasonality of plant-respired CO 2 and a decrease in organically complexed Al. In deeper pore waters, K-feldspar is in equilibrium and plagioclase is about an order of magnitude undersaturated. Hydrologic heterogeneity produces a range of weathering gradients that are constrained by solute distributions and matrix and macropore flow regimes. Plagioclase weathering rates, based on precipitation-corrected Na gradients, vary between 3 and 7 × 10 −16 mol m −2 s −1 . These rates are similar to previously determined solid-state rates but are several orders of magnitude slower than for experimental plagioclase dissolution indicating strong inhibitions to natural weathering, partly due to near-equilibrium weathering reactions.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands.

Nature Plants↗

New insights into nitrate dynamics in a karst groundwater system gained from in situ high-frequency optical sensor measurements

Understanding nitrate dynamics in groundwater systems as a function of climatic conditions, especially during contrasting patterns of drought and wet cycles, is limited by a lack of temporal and spatial data. Nitrate sensors have the capability for making accurate, high-frequency measurements of nitrate in situ, but have not yet been evaluated for long-term use in groundwater wells. We measured in situ nitrate continuously in two groundwater monitoring wells —one rural and one urban—located in the recharge zone of a productive karst aquifer in central Texas in order to resolve changes that occur over both short-term (hourly to daily) and long-term (monthly to yearly) periods. Nitrate concentrations, measured as nitrate-nitrogen in milligrams per liter (mg/L), during drought conditions showed little or no temporal change as groundwater levels declined. During aquifer recharge, extremely rapid changes in concentration occurred at both wells as documented by hourly data. At both sites, nitrate concentrations were affected by recharging surface water as evidenced by nitrate concentrations in groundwater recharge (0.8–1.3 mg/L) that were similar to previously reported values for regional recharging streams. Groundwater nitrate concentrations responded differently at urban and rural sites during groundwater recharge. Concentrations at the rural well (approximately 1.0 mg/L) increased as a result of higher nitrate concentrations in groundwater recharge relative to ambient nitrate concentrations in groundwater, whereas concentrations at the urban well (approximately 2.7 mg/L) decreased as a result of the dilution of higher ambient nitrate concentrations relative to those in groundwater recharge. Notably, nitrate concentrations decreased to as low as 0.8 mg/L at the urban site during recharge but postrecharge concentrations exceeded 3.0 mg/L. A return to higher nitrate concentrations postrecharge indicates mobilization of a localized source of elevated nitrate within the urbanized area of the aquifer. Changes in specific conductance were observed at both sites during groundwater recharge, and a significant correlation between specific conductance and nitrate (correlation coefficient [R] = 0.455) was evident at the urban site where large (3-fold) changes in nitrate occurred. Nitrate concentrations and specific conductance measured during a depth profile indicated that the water column was generally homogeneous as expected for this karst environment, but changes were observed in the most productive zone of the aquifer that might indicate some heterogeneity within the complex network of flow paths. Resolving the timing and magnitude of changes and characterizing fine-scale vertical differences would not be possible using conventional sampling techniques. The patterns observed in situ provided new insight into the dynamic nature of nitrate in a karst groundwater system.

Texas↗

Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials

The potential for increased drought frequency and severity linked to anthropogenic climate change in the semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States (US) is a serious concern. Multi-year droughts during the instrumental period and decadal-length droughts of the past two millennia were shorter and climatically different from the future permanent, ‘dust-bowl-like’ megadrought conditions, lasting decades to a century, that are predicted as a consequence of warming. So far, it has been unclear whether or not such megadroughts occurred in the southwestern US, and, if so, with what regularity and intensity. Here we show that periods of aridity lasting centuries to millennia occurred in the southwestern US during mid-Pleistocene interglacials. Using molecular palaeotemperature proxies to reconstruct the mean annual temperature (MAT) in mid-Pleistocene lacustrine sediment from the Valles Caldera, New Mexico, we found that the driest conditions occurred during the warmest phases of interglacials, when the MAT was comparable to or higher than the modern MAT. A collapse of drought-tolerant C 4 plant communities during these warm, dry intervals indicates a significant reduction in summer precipitation, possibly in response to a poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Three MAT cycles ∼ 2 °C in amplitude occurred within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and seem to correspond to the muted precessional cycles within this interglacial. In comparison with MIS 11, MIS 13 experienced higher precessional-cycle amplitudes, larger variations in MAT (4–6 °C) and a longer period of extended warmth, suggesting that local insolation variations were important to interglacial climatic variability in the southwestern US. Comparison of the early MIS 11 climate record with the Holocene record shows many similarities and implies that, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, the region should be entering a cooler and wetter phase.

Nature↗

Developing an effective Agassiz's Desert Tortoise monitoring program: Final report to the Coachella Valley Conservation Commission

Agassiz’s desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is a conservation-reliant species with populations north and west of the Colorado River protected as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (Averill-Murray et al. 2012). Since it was listed under this category in 1990, a great deal has been learned about the natural history of the species, and it is now one of the best-studied turtles in the United States (Lovich and Ennen 2013). However, the accumulated body of scientific data available for the species has not yet been translated into recovery or delisting of the species. Successful conservation of any species requires knowledge of their natural history and how vital rates affect their ability to maintain stable populations in the face of natural and anthropogenic stresses. Agassiz’s desert tortoises occur from southwestern Utah to near the Mexican border in California – a distance of over 450 km – but population densities vary greatly across this immense landscape (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2015). Tortoises occur in the Sonoran Desert of California, including the eastern and western ends of the Coachella Valley, where it is one of 27 species covered under the Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan and Natural Community Conservation Plan (CVMSHCP/NCCP). The southern portion of Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) lies within this 1.1 million acre planning area, and was predicted to be an area of low-density tortoise populations using habitat suitability modeling (Barrows 2011). JTNP is near the southern distributional limit of G. agassizii, yet very little has been published regarding the ecology of tortoises in the Sonoran Desert of California. Reproductive output is an important gross measure of the ability of a population to persist. When integrated with data on fertility and survivorship, this information forms a foundation for assessing population status and formulating effective management strategies (e.g., Congdon et al. 1993, 1994), especially for imperiled species. One aspect of the biology of G. agassizii that has been particularly well-studied is reproductive output. However, most of what we know about this topic comes from research in the Mojave Desert portion of the species’ range (Ernst and Lovich 2009). Comparatively little has been published on the reproductive ecology of populations living in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem of California. Publications by Lovich et al. (1999, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) constitute the main body of literature on desert tortoise reproductive ecology in the Sonoran Desert of California, with one study population located at the western end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Collecting data on Agassiz’s desert tortoise ecology in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem is important due to significant differences between the two adjacent desert ecosystems, especially the timing and amounts of annual precipitation, and their potential effects on reproductive output (e.g., Lovich et al. 5 2015). There are also differences in the vulnerability of tortoises to the effects of a warming, drying climate between the two deserts (Barrows 2011; Zylstra et al. 2012). The overall goal of this study was to collect data on demography, reproductive output, and genetic affinities at a study site in the Sonoran Desert portion of JTNP in the eastern end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Specific objectives included: 1) Collect data to establish baselines on tortoise populations and/or their habitat suitability in core habitat within the CVNCCP area, including biotic and abiotic variables affecting persistence of tortoise populations; 2) Compare and contrast with data collected on desert tortoises at USGS/BLM study site near Palm Springs over 16 years; 3) Support long-term modeling efforts needed to determine tortoise population viability; 4) Refine modeled relationships with identified threats such as fire, invasive species and climate change; and 5) Prioritize adaptive management needs for the desert tortoise in and beyond the CVNCCP area. The data from this study will aid in determining baseline estimates of the desert tortoise population size within the planning area as well as establish a marked population of Agassiz’s desert tortoises for future monitoring. Data will be integrated with habitat modeling in order to refine model output. Genetic data will be collected on both the north and south sides of Interstate 10 to determine the potential effects of habitat fragmentation and genetic mixing. Analyses are ongoing and results beyond those presented in this report will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals following inclusion of additional data collected on the south side of Shavers Valley in 2017-2018.

Report↗

Application of AFINCH as a tool for evaluating the effects of streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the southeast Lake Michigan hydrologic subregion

Bootstrapping techniques employing random subsampling were used with the AFINCH (Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels) model to gain insights into the effects of variation in streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the 0405 (Southeast Lake Michigan) hydrologic subregion. AFINCH uses stepwise-regression techniques to estimate monthly water yields from catchments based on geospatial-climate and land-cover data in combination with available streamflow and water-use data. Calculations are performed on a hydrologic-subregion scale for each catchment and stream reach contained in a National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) subregion. Water yields from contributing catchments are multiplied by catchment areas and resulting flow values are accumulated to compute streamflows in stream reaches which are referred to as flow lines. AFINCH imposes constraints on water yields to ensure that observed streamflows are conserved at gaged locations. Data from the 0405 hydrologic subregion (referred to as Southeast Lake Michigan) were used for the analyses. Daily streamflow data were measured in the subregion for 1 or more years at a total of 75 streamflow-gaging stations during the analysis period which spanned water years 1971–2003. The number of streamflow gages in operation each year during the analysis period ranged from 42 to 56 and averaged 47. Six sets (one set for each censoring level), each composed of 30 random subsets of the 75 streamflow gages, were created by censoring (removing) approximately 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 75 percent of the streamflow gages (the actual percentage of operating streamflow gages censored for each set varied from year to year, and within the year from subset to subset, but averaged approximately the indicated percentages). Streamflow estimates for six flow lines each were aggregated by censoring level, and results were analyzed to assess (a) how the size and composition of the streamflow-gaging network affected the average apparent errors and variability of the estimated flows and (b) whether results for certain months were more variable than for others. The six flow lines were categorized into one of three types depending upon their network topology and position relative to operating streamflow-gaging stations. Statistical analysis of the model results indicates that (1) less precise (that is, more variable) estimates resulted from smaller streamflow-gaging networks as compared to larger streamflow-gaging networks, (2) precision of AFINCH flow estimates at an ungaged flow line is improved by operation of one or more streamflow gages upstream and (or) downstream in the enclosing basin, (3) no consistent seasonal trend in estimate variability was evident, and (4) flow lines from ungaged basins appeared to exhibit the smallest absolute apparent percent errors (APEs) and smallest changes in average APE as a function of increasing censoring level. The counterintuitive results described in item (4) above likely reflect both the nature of the base-streamflow estimate from which the errors were computed and insensitivity in the average model-derived estimates to changes in the streamflow-gaging-network size and composition. Another analysis demonstrated that errors for flow lines in ungaged basins have the potential to be much larger than indicated by their APEs if measured relative to their true (but unknown) flows. “Missing gage” analyses, based on examination of censoring subset results where the streamflow gage of interest was omitted from the calibration data set, were done to better understand the true error characteristics for ungaged flow lines as a function of network size. Results examined for 2 water years indicated that the probability of computing a monthly streamflow estimate within 10 percent of the true value with AFINCH decreased from greater than 0.9 at about a 10-percent network-censoring level to less than 0.6 as the censoring level approached 75 percent. In addition, estimates for typically dry months tended to be characterized by larger percent errors than typically wetter months.

Indiana, Michigan↗

Groundwater movement and interaction with surface water near the confluence of the Platte and Elkhorn rivers, Nebraska, 2016–18

The State of Nebraska requires a sustainable balance between long-term water supplies and uses of groundwater and surface water and requires Natural Resources Districts to include the effect of groundwater use on surface-water systems as part of their respective integrated management plans. Recent droughts in Nebraska (2000–6; 2012–13) have amplified concerns about the long-term sustainability of groundwater and surface-water resources in the state, and concerns about the effect of groundwater irrigation on both streamflow and the water supplies needed to meet wildlife, recreational, and municipal needs. The lower Platte River provides nearly 100 percent of drinking-water supplies to Lincoln, Nebraska, 40 to 60 percent of drinking-water supplies to Omaha, Nebr., and critical aquatic and riparian habitat for threatened and endangered species. The Lower Platte River Basin-wide Management Plan has been jointly developed by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources and seven Natural Resources Districts to address some of these concerns by managing groundwater and surface-water resources conjunctively. To sustain flows in the lower Platte River that are needed for municipal water supplies, water managers have proposed projects aimed at temporary storage of surface water in upstream parts of the basin to mitigate periods of low flow in the lower Platte River. To increase scientific understanding and provide support for any potential future streamflow augmentation projects, the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, the Lower Platte North Natural Resources District, and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, initiated this study to examine groundwater/surface-water interaction along the lower Platte and Elkhorn Rivers upstream from their confluence. The study design described herein focused on understanding seasonal characteristics of groundwater movement and interaction with surface water during periods of high groundwater demand (June through August) and low groundwater demand (all other months). Understanding how groundwater movement and interaction with surface water are affected by streamflow conditions and local groundwater demand is critical to the development of any streamflow augmentation project intended to sustain streamflow and mitigate periods of low flow in the lower Platte River. The characteristics of groundwater movement and interaction with surface water are affected by hydrologic and local climatic conditions. For the study area, 2016–18 conditions can be broadly characterized as above normal precipitation. The flows measured at the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (U.S. Geological Survey station 06800500) were above the long-term median, and the streamflow of the Platte River near Leshara, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (06796500) remained normal or slightly above normal for the duration of this study. Continuous streamflow and water-level data were interpreted to examine differences in groundwater movement and interaction with surface water between the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers during high and low groundwater demand periods. Although the streamflow for the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers and their tributaries was less during the high groundwater demand period, the hydraulic gradient along a transect of recorder wells was identical (0.0012 foot per foot) during the high and low groundwater demand synoptic water-level and streamflow surveys. The hydraulic gradient between the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers generally remained between 0.0011 and 0.0012 foot per foot. It can be inferred that the hydraulic gradient, which is the only temporally variable factor in Darcy’s Law, is consistent throughout the study period and that groundwater flow does not vary appreciably along this transect. The northern part of the study area (north of the transect of recorder wells) has consistent groundwater and tributary flow from Big Slough, Rawhide Creek (Old Channel), and Rawhide Creek for low and high groundwater demand periods. In the southern part of the study area (south of the transect of recorder wells), tributary flow is more variable and dependent on local groundwater demand and flow conditions of the Platte River. Small decreases (less than 2 feet) in the groundwater levels, such as those measured during the high groundwater demand period, can have substantial changes in the streamflow in an unnamed tributary to the Elkhorn River. The streamflow measured during the high groundwater demand synoptic water-level and streamflow survey had decreased by nearly a factor of 20 when compared to the low groundwater demand period. The volume of groundwater discharge received by the Elkhorn River was estimated by examining the changes in streamflow between measurement locations. Streamflow measurements indicate that the groundwater discharge received by the Elkhorn River in the southern part of the study area was seasonably variable, making it difficult if not impossible to estimate an annual value. In the Elkhorn River, between the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station and the Q Street Bridge, streamflow measurements collected during the low groundwater demand period indicated a gain of 80 cubic feet per second, which is comparable to the gain estimated using aerial thermal infrared imagery and water temperature data. Streamflow measurements collected during the high groundwater demand period indicate a loss of 80 cubic feet per second across this same reach. In assessing water supply conditions in the lower Platte River system, the term “loss” in reference to streamflow in the Elkhorn River should be used with caution. Most likely, flow from the Elkhorn River which is “lost” to the groundwater system will later discharge to surface water closer to the confluence of the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers as underflow. A calibrated groundwater flow model of the study area likely is required to predict the fate of this water and to quantify groundwater discharge during varying hydrologic conditions along this reach. Aerial thermal infrared imagery indicated that much of the groundwater discharge in the southern part of the study area is focused across a 3-mile reach where the Elkhorn River turns southwest, perpendicular to the regional groundwater flow direction. Points of focused groundwater discharge were not detected with aerial thermal infrared imagery, indicating that groundwater discharge is diffuse rather than concentrated at focused points. Temperature-based streambed flux estimates indicated that strong regional groundwater gradients are not driving groundwater discharge and hyporheic flow is the dominant groundwater/surface-water exchange process.

Nebraska↗

The quality of our nation's waters: Nutrients in the nation's streams and groundwater, 1992-2004

National Findings and Their Implications Although the use of artificial fertilizer has supported increasing food production to meet the needs of a growing population, increases in nutrient loadings from agricultural and, to a lesser extent, urban sources have resulted in nutrient concentrations in many streams and parts of aquifers that exceed standards for protection of human health and (or) aquatic life, often by large margins. Do NAWQA findings substantiate national concerns for aquatic and human health? National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) findings indicate that nutrient concentrations in streams and groundwater in basins with significant agricultural or urban development are substantially greater than naturally occurring or “background” levels. For example, median concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus in agricultural streams are about 6 times greater than background levels. Findings also indicate that concentrations in streams routinely were 2 to 10 times greater than regional nutrient criteria recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to protect aquatic life. Such large differences in magnitude suggest that significant reductions in sources of nutrients, as well as greater use of land management strategies to reduce the transport of nutrients to streams, are needed to meet recommended criteria for streams draining areas with significant agricultural and urban development. Nitrate concentrations above the Federal drinking-water standard—or Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL)—of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L, as nitrogen) are relatively uncommon in samples from streams used for drinking water or from relatively deep aquifers; the MCL is exceeded, however, in more than 20 percent of shallow (less than 100 feet below the water table) domestic wells in agricultural areas. This finding raises concerns for human health in rural agricultural areas where shallow groundwater is used for domestic supply and may warn of future contamination of deeper groundwater pumped from public‑supply wells. Are levels of nutrients in water increasing or decreasing? A decadal assessment of trends in concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus from about 1993 to 2003 shows minimal changes in those concentrations in the majority of studied streams across the Nation, and more upward than downward trends in concentrations at sites with changes. These findings underscore the need for reductions in nutrient inputs or management strategies that would reduce transport of nutrients to streams. Upward trends were evident among all land uses, including those only minimally affected by agricultural and (or) urban development, which suggests that additional protection of some of our Nation’s most pristine streams warrants consideration. The median of nitrate concentrations in groundwater from 495 wells also increased significantly from 3.2 to 3.4 mg/L (6 percent) during about the same period, and the proportion of wells with concentrations of nitrate greater than the MCL increased from 16 to 21 percent. Nitrate concentrations in water in deep aquifers are likely to increase during the next decade as shallow groundwater with elevated concentrations moves downward. The potential for future contamination of the deep aquifers requires attention because these aquifers commonly are used for public water supply, and because restoration of groundwater is costly and difficult. Long-term and consistent monitoring of nutrients, improved accounting of nutrient sources, and improved tracking and modeling of climatic and landscape changes will be essential for distinguishing trends in nutrient concentrations, understanding the causes of those trends, and accurately tracking the effectiveness of strategies implemented to manage nutrients.

Circular↗

Metal loading assessment of a small mountainous sub-basin characterized by acid drainage -- Prospect Gulch, upper Animas River watershed, Colorado

strongly affected by natural acidity from pyrite weathering. Metal content in the water column is a composite of multiple sources affected by hydrologic, geologic, climatic, and anthropogenic conditions. Identifying sources of metals from various drainage areas was determined using a tracer injection approach and synoptic sampling during low flow conditions on September 29, 1999 to determine loads. The tracer data was interpreted in conjunction with detailed geologic mapping, topographic profiling, geochemical characterization, and the occurrence and distribution of trace metals to identify sources of ground-water inflows. For this highly mineralized sub-basin, we demonstrate that SO4, Al, and Fe load contributions from drainage areas that have experienced historical mining?although substantial?are relatively insignificant in comparison with SO4, Al, and Fe loads from areas experiencing natural weathering of highlyaltered, pyritic rocks. Regional weathering of acid-sulfate mineral assemblages produces moderately low pH waters elevated in SO4, Al, and Fe; but generally lacking in Cu, Cd, Ni, and Pb. Samples impacted by mining are also characterized by low pH and large concentrations of SO4, Al, and Fe; but contained elevated dissolved metals from ore-bearing vein minerals such as Cu, Zn, Cd, Ni, and Pb. Occurrences of dissolved trace metals were helpful in identifying ground-water sources and flow paths. For example, cadmium was greatest in inflows associated with drainage from inactive mine sites and absent in inflows that were unaffected by past mining activities and thus served as an important indicator of mining contamination for this environmental setting. The most heavily mine-impacted reach (PG153 to PG800), contributed 8% of the discharge, and 11%, 9%, and 12% of the total SO4, Al, and Fe loads in Prospect Gulch. The same reach yielded 59% and 37% of the total Cu and Zn loads for the subbasin. In contrast, the naturally acidic inflows from the Red Chemotroph iron spring yielded 39% of the discharge and 54%, 73%, and 87% of the SO4, Al, and Fe loads; but only 4% of the total Cu and 30% of the total Zn loads in Prospect Gulch. Base flow from the Prospect Gulch sub-basin contributes about 4.8 percent of the total discharge at the mouth of Cement Creek; compared with sampled instream loads of 1.8%, 8.8%, 15.9%, 28%, and 8.6% for SO4, Al, Fe, Cu and Zn, respectively. Water-shed scale remediation efforts targeted at reducing loads of SO4, Al, and Fe at inactive mine sites are likely to fail because the major sources of these constituents in Prospect Gulch are predominantly discharged from natural sources. Remediation goals aimed at reducing acidity and loads of Cu and other base metals, may succeed, however, because changes in pH and loads are disproportionately greater than increases in discharge over the same reach, and a substantial fraction of the metal loading is from mining-impacted reaches. Whether remediation of abandoned mines in Prospect Gulch can be successful depends on how goals are defined?that is, whether the objective is to reduce loads of SO4, Al, and Fe; or whether loads of Cu and other base metals and pH are targeted.

Open-File Report↗