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At least 1,693 records · Page 94Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Assessment of potential risks from renewable energy development and other anthropogenic factors to wintering Golden Eagles in the western United States

Wind and other energy development are expanding rapidly and on an unprecedented scale within the range of the Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) while other anthropogenic-related changes, wildfires, invasive plants, drought, and climate change are altering or destroying native habitats occupied by Golden Eagles. However, the potential effects of these factors on North American Golden Eagle populations are largely unknown and the most recent evidence indicates that the population in the western United States is declining slightly. Impediments to evaluating the potential effects of energy development projects on wintering Golden Eagles include issues of scale and a paucity of available information about eagle winter use areas and ecology. We applied a predictive model of eagle winter distribution developed for Idaho and Montana, to Idaho, Utah, Nevada and eastern Oregon to help identify potential wintering areas and identify risks that occur in those areas. The model identifies ~40% of the four state study area as potentially suitable eagle winter habitat and provides a basis for spatial assessment of possible risk factors to eagles wintering there. We used eBird and Christmas Bird Count citizen science datasets for an independent evaluation of the accuracy of our predictive distribution model. The model was robust, accurately predicting the presence of wintering Golden Eagles significantly more often than expected. We used digital environmental datasets (layers) of potential risk factors, in conjunction with model predicted eagle distribution, to better understand and estimate the extent of risks to the wintering eagle population in the study area. These layers represent available data for some of the factors previously identified as risks in the landscape to wintering Golden Eagles. The majority of predicted eagle wintering areas occurred where there was little habitat fragmentation (<10%). All predicted winter areas contained at least one potential risk factor (e.g., potential for energy development); 39.4% of predicted winter areas contained at least two known risk factors. The greatest number of risks often occurred where the human footprint was highest and where eagles were less likely to occur during winter. Our results can be used to help prioritize field surveys for identifying important Golden Eagle winter areas in the western United States and determine potential locations where energy development is least likely to have negative effects on wintering eagles. Survey efforts can be allocated in consideration of management and conservation objectives based on predicted habitat suitability and risk factors. For example, surveys for areas of high suitability and low risk can identify places to focus management for conservation of eagle winter areas. Further, sites proposed for wind energy development could be reviewed initially based on model predicted eagle wintering areas and then surveyed to determine if permitting for development is appropriate.

Book chapter↗
USGS2025

Where to restore and conserve? A regional benefit cost analysis of coral reef protection and restoration for coastal flood resilience

Momentum is growing for the management of coral reefs as a strategy to reduce climate risks in tropical coastlines. Yet, quantification of the life-time costs, impacts, and benefits remains limited. This study provides one of the first rigorous, spatially explicit, regional-scale Benefit:Cost Analyses (BCA) for coral reef restoration and was designed to meet the BCA requirements of major hazard mitigation funding and programs. This study simulates coastal flooding using a hydrodynamic model under different scenarios representing current coral reef conditions, reef degradation, and reef restoration. These coastal flood maps are used to estimate socioeconomic damages, which are included in a BCA to assess cost-effectiveness and priority areas for coral reef conservation and restoration. The United States Virgin Islands is used as a case study given recent impacts from storms and their new policy that declares reefs as natural infrastructure. The results show that flood risk across the islands of Saint Croix, Saint John, and Saint Thomas is $51.4 million USD per year. Annually, coral reefs prevent flood damages to 481 people and $43.6 million USD of infrastructure, which represents 87 % of the flood risk. These results identify the communities that could receive the greatest benefits from coral conservation and restoration, which overlap significantly. Coral reef restoration is found to be a cost-effective strategy for flood mitigation although how reefs are restored matters. Hybrid coral reef restoration provides greater flood mitigation benefits than ecological restoration, but its cost-effectiveness is overall lower given its greater costs. Many coastal areas have benefit:cost ratios exceeding 1.5, which complies with typical government agencies’ requirements for accessing hazard mitigation funds. This valuation framework helps provide rigorous regional-scale quantification of nature-based coastal protection solutions for coastal risk management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2003

Roads as conduits for exotic plant invasions in a semiarid landscape

Roads are believed to be a major contributing factor to the ongoing spread of exotic plants. We examined the effect of road improvement and environmental variables on exotic and native plant diversity in roadside verges and adjacent semiarid grassland, shrubland, and woodland communities of southern Utah (U.S.A.). We measured the cover of exotic and native species in roadside verges and both the richness and cover of exotic and native species in adjacent interior communities (50 m beyond the edge of the road cut) along 42 roads stratified by level of road improvement (paved, improved surface, graded, and four-wheel-drive track). In roadside verges along paved roads, the cover of Bromus tectorum was three times as great (27%) as in verges along four-wheel-drive tracks (9%). The cover of five common exotic forb species tended to be lower in verges along four-wheel-drive tracks than in verges along more improved roads. The richness and cover of exotic species were both more than 50% greater, and the richness of native species was 30% lower, at interior sites adjacent to paved roads than at those adjacent to four-wheel-drive tracks. In addition, environmental variables relating to dominant vegetation, disturbance, and topography were significantly correlated with exotic and native species richness and cover. Improved roads can act as conduits for the invasion of adjacent ecosystems by converting natural habitats to those highly vulnerable to invasion. However, variation in dominant vegetation, soil moisture, nutrient levels, soil depth, disturbance, and topography may render interior communities differentially susceptible to invasions originating from roadside verges. Plant communities that are both physically invasible (e.g., characterized by deep or fertile soils) and disturbed appear most vulnerable. Decision-makers considering whether to build, improve, and maintain roads should take into account the potential spread of exotic plants.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2011

Chapter 7: Occurrence and abundance of ants, reptiles, and mammals

Sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.)- associated wildlife are threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation and by impacts associated with anthropogenic disturbances, including energy development. Understanding how species of concern as well as other wildlife including insects, reptiles, and mammals respond to type and spatial scale of disturbance is critical to managing future land uses and identifying sites that are important for conservation. We developed statistical models to describe species occurrence or abundance, based on area searches in 7.29-ha survey blocks, across the Wyoming Basins Ecoregional Assessment (WBEA) area for six shrub steppe-associated species: harvester ant ( Pogonomyrmex spp.), thatch ant ( Formica spp.), short-horned lizard ( Phrynosoma hernandesi ), white-tailed jackrabbit ( Lepus townsendii ), cottontail ( Sylvilagus spp.) and least chipmunk ( Tamius minimus ). We modeled patterns in occupancy or abundance relative to multi-scale measures of vegetation type and pattern, abiotic site characteristics, and anthropogenic disturbance factors. Sagebrush habitat was a strong predictor of occurrence for shorthorned lizards and white-tailed jackrabbits, but weak for the other four species. Vegetation and abiotic characteristics were strong determinants of species occurrence, although the scale of response was not consistent among species. All species, with the exception of the short-horned lizard, responded to anthropogenic disturbance, although responses again varied as a function of scale and direction (negative and positive influences). Our results improve our understanding of how environmental and anthropogenic factors affect species distributions across the WBEA area and facilitate a multi-species approach to management of this sagebrush ecosystem.

Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Multinomial N-mixture models improve the applicability of electrofishing for developing population estimates of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass

Failure to account for variable detection across survey conditions constrains progressive stream ecology and can lead to erroneous stream fish management and conservation decisions. In addition to variable detection’s confounding long-term stream fish population trends, reliable abundance estimates across a wide range of survey conditions are fundamental to establishing species–environment relationships. Despite major advancements in accounting for variable detection when surveying animal populations, these approaches remain largely ignored by stream fish scientists, and CPUE remains the most common metric used by researchers and managers. One notable advancement for addressing the challenges of variable detection is the multinomial N -mixture model. Multinomial N -mixture models use a flexible hierarchical framework to model the detection process across sites as a function of covariates; they also accommodate common fisheries survey methods, such as removal and capture–recapture. Effective monitoring of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu populations has long been challenging; therefore, our objective was to examine the use of multinomial N -mixture models to improve the applicability of electrofishing for estimating absolute abundance. We sampled Smallmouth Bass populations by using tow-barge electrofishing across a range of environmental conditions in streams of the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. Using an information-theoretic approach, we identified effort, water clarity, wetted channel width, and water depth as covariates that were related to variable Smallmouth Bass electrofishing detection. Smallmouth Bass abundance estimates derived from our top model consistently agreed with baseline estimates obtained via snorkel surveys. Additionally, confidence intervals from the multinomial N -mixture models were consistently more precise than those of unbiased Petersen capture–recapture estimates due to the dependency among data sets in the hierarchical framework. We demonstrate the application of this contemporary population estimation method to address a longstanding stream fish management issue. We also detail the advantages and trade-offs of hierarchical population estimation methods relative to CPUE and estimation methods that model each site separately.

Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2016

The Outer Banks of North Carolina

The Outer Banks of North Carolina are excellent examples of the nearly 300 barrier islands rimming the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. These low, sandy islands are among the most dynamic natural landscapes occupied by man. Beach sands move offshore, onshore, and along the shore in the direction of the prevailing longshore currents. In this way, sandy coasts continuously adjust to different tide, wave, and current conditions and to rising sea level that causes the islands to migrate landward. Despite such changes, barrier islands are of considerable environmental importance. The Outer Banks are home to diverse natural ecosystems that are adapted to the harsh coastal environment. Native species tend to be robust and many are specifically adapted to withstand salt spray, periodic saltwater flooding, and the islands’ well-drained sandy soil. The Outer Banks provide an important stopover for birds on the Atlantic flyway, and many species inhabit the islands year round. In addition, Outer Banks beaches provide an important nesting habitat for five endangered or threatened sea turtle species. European explorers discovered North Carolina’s barrier islands in the 16th century, although the islands were not permanently settled until the middle 17th century. By the early 19th century, shipbuilding and lumber industries were among the most successful, until forest resources were depleted. Commercial fishing eventually followed, and it expanded considerably after the Civil War. By the Great Depression, however, little industry existed on the Outer Banks. In response to the effects of a severe hurricane in 1933, the National Park Service and the Civilian Conservation Corps proposed a massive sand-fixation program to stabilize the moving sand and prevent storm waves from sweeping across the entire width of some sections of the islands. Between 1933 and 1940, this program constructed sand fencing on 185 kilometers (115 miles) of beach and planted grass seedlings, trees, and shrubs. In 1937, Congress authorized the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, which was established in 1953. The national seashore preserved one of the world’s best examples of a barrier island environment, and minimized the effect of erosion that was becoming a serious problem. In 1966, Congress authorized the Cape Lookout National Seashore to ensure that Core and Shackleford Banks would not undergo major development and could be preserved in their natural state. The rate of population growth along the Outer Banks in recent decades has been among the highest in North Carolina. More important, however, has been the growth in vacationers—in 2008, more than a quarter of a million visitors during a typical week. Municipalities now need to provide services to a transient population as much as six times as large as their permanent resident population. Although human activities have dominated the landscape changes observed on the Outer Banks for the past century or two, these changes must be understood in the context of the prevailing atmospheric, oceanic, and geologic processes that have governed the form and function of these islands for thousands of years. It is these natural processes that imbue the Outer Banks with their unique and dichotomous qualities of tranquility and tumult. In the presence of human occupation, it is these same processes that make the islands one of the highest natural-hazard risk zones along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States.

North Carolina↗
USGS2022

Antibiotic resistance in free-ranging wildlife

In this chapter, we provide an overview of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) bacteria in wildlife through the presentation of general trends of occurrence among both captive and free-ranging wild animal populations, discussion of importance to human health and wildlife conservation, and identification of priority areas for future research and monitoring efforts. Once most commonly identified in humans and domestic animals, AMR bacteria have now been reported to be widespread among free-ranging and captive wildlife and the broader environment. Antimicrobial resistance has been identified in wildlife inhabiting nearly every country, region, and habitat type from which samples have been obtained, although occurrence may be more common in animals that occupy anthropogenically impacted environments. Though AMR bacteria identified in free-ranging wildlife have generally not been associated with direct health impacts to the host, specific bacteria and types of resistance found in wildlife may be clinically relevant to humans. Furthermore, AMR bacteria harbored by captive or free-ranging animals may complicate veterinary treatment of captive, rare, or vulnerable wildlife provided care. Future investigations may obtain important information on the acquisition and dissemination of AMR bacteria by wildlife through the comparison of resistance harbored by bacteria from wildlife and the environments they occupy. The identification of specific environmental pathways through which resistance may be acquired would help to guide the development of intervention strategies to interrupt further spread of antimicrobial resistance to, from, and among wildlife. Implications of such strategies may also extend more broadly to promote domestic animal, human, and environmental health.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Habitat modelling locates nesting areas of the endangered Black-capped Petrel Pterodroma hasitata on Hispaniola and identifies habitat loss

The Black-capped Petrel or Diablotin Pterodroma hasitata has a fragmented and declining population estimated at c.1,000 breeding pairs. On land, the species nests underground in steep ravines with dense understorey vegetation. The only confirmed breeding sites are located in the mountain ranges of Hispaniola in the Caribbean, where habitat loss and degradation are continuing threats. Other nesting populations may still remain undiscovered but, to locate them, laborious in situ nest searches must be conducted over expansive geographical areas. To focus nest-search efforts more efficiently, we analysed the environmental characteristics of Black-capped Petrel nesting habitat and modeled suitable habitat on Hispaniola using openly available environmental datasets. We used a univariate generalized linear model to compare the habitat characteristics of active Black-capped Petrel nests sites with those of potentially available sites (i.e. random pseudo-absences). Elevation, distance to coast, and the influence of tree cover and density emerged as important environmental variables. We then applied multivariate generalized linear models to these environmental variables that showed a significant relationship with petrel nesting activity. We used the top performing model of habitat suitability model to create maps of predicted suitability for Hispaniola. In addition to areas of known petrel activity, the model identified possible nesting areas for Black-capped Petrels in habitats not previously considered suitable. Based on model results, we estimated the total area of predicted suitable nesting habitat for Black-capped Petrels on Hispaniola and found that forest loss due to hurricanes, forest fires, and encroachment from agriculture had severely decreased availability of predicted suitable habitat between 2000 and 2018.

Hispaniola↗
USGS2021

Twenty-five essential research questions to inform the protection and restoration of freshwater biodiversity

Freshwater biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate. Freshwater conservationists and environmental managers have enough evidence to demonstrate that action must not be delayed but have insufficient evidence to identify those actions that will be most effective in reversing the current trend. Here, the focus is on identifying essential research topics that, if addressed, will contribute directly to restoring freshwater biodiversity through supporting ‘bending the curve’ actions (i.e. those actions leading to the recovery of freshwater biodiversity, not simply deceleration of the current downward trend). The global freshwater research and management community was asked to identify unanswered research questions that could address knowledge gaps and barriers associated with ‘bending the curve’ actions. The resulting list was refined into six themes and 25 questions. Although context-dependent and potentially limited in global reach, six overarching themes were identified: (i) learning from successes and failures; (ii) improving current practices; (iii) balancing resource needs; (iv) rethinking built environments; (v) reforming policy and investments; and (vi) enabling transformative change. Bold, efficient, science-based actions are necessary to reverse biodiversity loss. We believe that conservation actions will be most effective when supported by sound evidence, and that research and action must complement one another. These questions are intended to guide global freshwater researchers and conservation practitioners, identify key projects and signal research needs to funders and governments. Our questions can act as springboards for multidisciplinary and multisectoral collaborations that will improve the management and restoration of freshwater biodiversity.

Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosys↗
USGS2001

Economic development and conservation of biological and cultural diversity in Yunnan Province, China

Chinese and American scientists are co-operating to develop concepts, strategies, agreements, and proposals in support of an economic development and sustainable ecosystems project in Yunnan Province, People's Republic of China. Yunnan's Provincial Government has initiated a major programme to develop and further utilise its biological resources to help improve economic conditions for its citizens. They are co-operating with the US Geological Survey (USGS) on evaluation and management of biological resources so economic development will be compatible with sustainable ecological systems. Scientists from the USGS and co-operating universities will provide expertise on synthesising biological data, conducting a Gap Analysis for the Province, evaluating innovative economic opportunities, and designing an effective education, training, and outreach programme.

Environmental Development and Sustainability↗
USGS2011

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study&rsquo;s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2006

Widespread presence of naturally occurring perchlorate in high plains of Texas and New Mexico

Perchlorate (ClO4-) occurrence in groundwater has previously been linked to industrial releases and the historic use of Chilean nitrate fertilizers. However, recently a number of occurrences have been identified for which there is no obvious anthropogenic source. Groundwater from an area of 155 000 km2 in 56 counties in northwest Texas and eastern New Mexico is impacted by the presence of ClO4-. Concentrations were generally low (<4 ppb), although some areas are impacted by concentrations up to 200 ppb. ClO4- distribution is not related to well type (public water system, domestic, agricultural, or water-table monitoring) or aquifer (Ogallala, Edward Trinity High Plains, Edwards Trinity Plateau, Seymour, or Cenozoic). Results from vertically nested wells strongly indicate a surface source. The source of ClO4- appears to most likely be atmospheric deposition. Evidence supporting this hypothesis primarily relates to the presence of ClO 4- in tritium-free older water, the lack of relation between land use and concentration distribution, the inability of potential anthropogenic sources to account for the estimated mass of ClO4-, and the positive relationship between conserved anions (e.g., IO3-, Cl-, SO4-2) and ClO4-. The ClO4- distribution appears to be mainly related to evaporative concentration and unsaturated transport. This process has led to higher ClO4- and other ion concentrations in groundwater where the water table is relatively shallow, and in areas with lower saturated thickness. Irrigation may have accelerated this process in some areas by increasing the transport of accumulated salts and by increasing the number of evaporative cycles. Results from this study highlight the potential for ClO4- to impact groundwater in arid and semiarid areas through long-term atmospheric deposition. ?? 2006 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2011

Organic contaminants, trace and major elements, and nutrients in water and sediment sampled in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Beach water and sediment samples were collected along the Gulf of Mexico coast to assess differences in contaminant concentrations before and after landfall of Macondo-1 well oil released into the Gulf of Mexico from the sinking of the British Petroleum Corporation's Deepwater Horizon drilling platform. Samples were collected at 70 coastal sites on the Gulf of Mexico between May 7 and July 7, 2010, to document baseline, "pre-landfall" conditions. A subset of these sites was resampled during October 4 to 14, 2010, after oil had made landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coast ("post-landfall") to determine if actionable concentrations of oil were present along shorelines. Few organic contaminants were detected in water; their detection frequencies were generally low and similar in pre-landfall and post-landfall samples. Only one organic contaminant, toluene, had significantly higher concentrations in post-landfall than pre-landfall water samples. No samples exceeded any human-health benchmarks, and only one sample exceeded an aquatic-life benchmark-the toxic-unit benchmark for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) mixtures was exceeded in one post-landfall water sample from Louisiana. No exceedance was observed in the corresponding pre-landfall water sample at this site. In sediment, several PAHs were detected at over 20 percent of sites. Concentrations of 3 parent PAHs and 17 alkylated PAH groups were significantly higher in post-landfall samples than pre-landfall samples. One pre-landfall sample from Texas exceeded the sediment toxic-unit benchmark for PAH mixtures; this site was not sampled during the post-landfall period, so no comparison between sampling periods could be made. Twenty-seven percent of sediment samples exceeded empirical sediment-quality benchmarks (upper screening values) for PAHs, indicating these samples are in the probable-effect range. A higher percentage of post-landfall samples exceeded upper screening-value benchmarks (37 percent) than did pre-landfall samples (22 percent), but there was no significant difference in the proportion of samples exceeding one or more benchmarks between paired pre-landfall and post-landfall samples. Seven sites had the largest concentration differences between post-landfall and pre-landfall samples for fifteen alkylated PAHs. Five of these seven sites (1 site in Louisiana, 1 in Mississippi, and 3 in Alabama) were identified on the basis of diagnostic geochemical biomarkers as containing Macondo-1 oil in post-landfall sediments and tarballs, as described in a companion report by Rosenbauer and others (2010). For trace and major elements in water, analytical reporting levels for several elements were highly variable; after censoring to a common reporting threshold, concentrations were significantly different between pre-landfall and post-landfall samples for a few elements, all of which are elements in seawater. No human-health benchmarks were exceeded, although these were available for only two elements. Aquatic-life benchmarks for trace elements were exceeded in almost 50 percent of water samples. Post-landfall samples exceeded one or more acute benchmarks in 21 percent, and chronic benchmarks in 93 percent of samples, compared to 1 percent (acute) and 39 percent (chronic) for pre-landfall samples. The elements responsible for the most exceedances in post-landfall samples were boron (48 samples), copper (22), and manganese (12). Nickel and vanadium, which U.S. Environmental Protection Agency specifically identified as relevant to the oil spill, were responsible for exceedances in only one of the fifty-two post-landfall samples with exceedances. These results represent the minimum number of exceedances for several trace elements because a substantial number of samples could not be compared with benchmarks because the element was determined during only one sampling period (boron and vanadium) or the reporting level for the sample was higher than the applicable benchmark value (for example, cobalt, copper, lead, and nickel). The high and variable reporting levels for trace elements in water also precluded the statistical comparison between sampling periods of the proportion of samples exceeding benchmarks. For trace elements in whole (unsieved) sediment, 47 percent of samples exceeded empirical upper screening-value benchmarks, indicating these samples are in the probable-effect range. However, there was no significant difference in the proportion of samples exceeding one or more benchmarks between paired pre-landfall post-landfall samples. Benchmark exceedance frequencies could be conservatively high, because they are based on measurements of total trace-element concentrations, including the sediment matrix. In fine sediment (the less than 63-micrometer sediment fraction), one or more trace or major elements were anthropogenically enriched relative to national baseline values for U.S. streams for almost all sediment samples (123 of 124). Sixteen percent of sediment samples exceeded upper screening-value benchmarks for, and were enriched in, one or more of the element(s) barium (in 14 samples), vanadium (5), aluminum (3), manganese (3), arsenic (2), chromium (2), and cobalt (1). These samples, collected from Louisiana and Texas, were evenly divided between the pre-landfall (9 samples) and post-landfall (10 samples) periods. Considering all the information evaluated in this report, there were significant differences between pre-landfall and post-landfall samples for PAH concentrations in sediment. Pre-landfall and post-landfall samples did not differ significantly in concentrations or benchmark exceedances for most organics in water or trace elements in sediment. For trace elements in water, aquatic-life benchmarks were exceeded in almost 50 percent of samples, but the high and variable analytical reporting levels precluded statistical comparison of benchmark exceedances between sampling periods. Concentrations of several PAH compounds in sediment were significantly higher in post-landfall samples than pre-landfall samples, and five of seven sites with the largest differences in PAH concentrations also had diagnostic geochemical evidence of Deepwater Horizon Macondo-1 oil from Rosenbauer and others (2010).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2017

Estimating occurrence and detection probabilities for stream-breeding salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain

Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.

Journal of Herpetology↗
USGS2013

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2009

Assessment of water quality trends in the Minnesota River using non-parametric and parametric methods

Excessive loading of sediment and nutrients to rivers is a major problem in many parts of the United States. In this study, we tested the non-parametric Seasonal Kendall (SEAKEN) trend model and the parametric USGS Quality of Water trend program (QWTREND) to quantify trends in water quality of the Minnesota River at Fort Snelling from 1976 to 2003. Both methods indicated decreasing trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), and orthophosphorus (OP) and a generally increasing trend in flow-adjusted nitrate plus nitrite-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) concentration. The SEAKEN results were strongly influenced by the length of the record as well as extreme years (dry or wet) earlier in the record. The QWTREND results, though influenced somewhat by the same factors, were more stable. The magnitudes of trends between the two methods were somewhat different and appeared to be associated with conceptual differences between the flow-adjustment processes used and with data processing methods. The decreasing trends in TSS, TP, and OP concentrations are likely related to conservation measures implemented in the basin. However, dilution effects from wet climate or additional tile drainage cannot be ruled out. The increasing trend in NO 3 -N concentrations was likely due to increased drainage in the basin. Since the Minnesota River is the main source of sediments to the Mississippi River, this study also addressed the rapid filling of Lake Pepin on the Mississippi River and found the likely cause to be increased flow due to recent wet climate in the region. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2011

The distributions of one invasive and two native crayfishes in relation to coarse-scale natural and anthropogenic factors

1.&ensp;Native crayfishes are often extirpated from portions of their range because of interactions with invasive species, anthropogenic alterations to environmental conditions or a combination of these factors. Our goal was to identify coarse-scale natural and anthropogenic factors related to the current distributions of the invasive crayfish, Orconectes hylas , and two endemic crayfishes, Orconectes peruncus and Orconectes quadruncus in the St. Francis River drainage, Missouri, U.S.A. and to provide wider insights into the potential role of anthropogenic factors in facilitating species displacement. 2.&ensp;We used classification trees to model coarse-scale natural and anthropogenic environmental factors and their relation to the presence or absence of each species. Model results were then used to predict probability of presence for each species within each stream segment throughout the entire St. Francis River drainage. 3.&ensp;Factors related to geology and soils were the best predictors of species distributions. A dichotomy of these factors explained much of the discrete distributions of the two native species. Agricultural-related factors were identified as the most influential anthropogenic activity related to species distributions. All associations between the invasive species and anthropogenic factors were negative which suggested the invader was not likely to establish in heavily impacted areas. Overall, our models had high correct classification rates, and we were able to reliably predict the presence of the invader in the invaded drainage. 4.&ensp;Given the negative associations of the invader with anthropogenic alterations at a coarse spatial scale, we believe other mechanisms are likely to be responsible for the widespread displacement of the two native species. These findings can be used to assist in conservation activities such as creation of refugia for native species and may direct future research to identify the mechanism(s) of species displacement.

Missouri↗