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USGS2020

Water-quality trends for selected sites and constituents in the international Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota and North Dakota, United States, and Manitoba, Canada, 1970–2017

A comprehensive study to evaluate water-quality trends, while considering natural hydroclimatic variability, in the Red River of the North Basin and assess water-quality conditions for the Red River of the North crossing the international boundary near Emerson, Manitoba, Canada (the binational site), was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality, and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and in collaboration with Manitoba Sustainable Development and Environment and Climate Change Canada. The international Red River of the North Basin encompasses 3 U.S. States (South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota) and 1 Canadian Province (Manitoba). Water quality in the Red River of the North Basin is of concern for both Federal governments and State and Provincial governments. Water-quality objectives have been previously established for selected dissolved ions and recently (2019) proposed for selected nutrients for the binational site. In the current (2020) study, water-quality data from State, Provincial, and Federal agencies in the United States and Canada for sites in the Red River of the North Basin from 1970 to 2017 were compiled and used for trend analysis. Trend analysis using a water-quality dataset from multiple agencies that collect water-quality data for various objectives presented multiple challenges. The trend-analysis approach was able to accommodate differences in water-quality data caused by field-collection and laboratory-analytical method differences, disparities in sampling frequencies, and spatial and temporal gaps in data. Most of these challenges were overcome by the statistical tool, R–QWTREND, which identifies trends in concentration unrelated to variability in streamflow. The integrated basin approach used in the current study, combined with comparing current data trends with historical trends, provided valuable insights into understanding how water quality is changing spatially (34 sites analyzed for a recent period, 2000–15) and temporally (5 sites analyzed for a 45-year historical period, 1970–2015) within the Red River of the North Basin. One of the most consistent spatial and temporal changes observed in the current study was increasing concentrations of sulfate among tributary and main-stem sites since 2000. For some sites, increases were detected starting as early as 1985. Total dissolved solids and chloride concentrations had spatial and temporal patterns like sulfate. Although R–QWTREND removes the variability in constituent concentration caused by natural streamflow variability, all variability in sulfate caused by hydroclimatic variability may not be captured because of changes in hydrologic pathways and changes in the contributions of sulfate from various natural sources. Nutrient concentrations demonstrated less consistent spatial and temporal changes than sulfate, and changes in nutrient concentrations were assumed to be more closely tied to human-induced rather than natural changes. Nitrate-plus-nitrite concentrations were mostly increasing in the upper Red River of the North subbasin, and for nitrate plus nitrite and total nitrogen, the Sheyenne River subbasin had consistent decreasing concentrations. Since 2000, total phosphorus has decreased in the upper Red River of the North subbasin, but total phosphorus concentration has increased for sites in the lower Red River of the North subbasin, and for some main-stem sites, concentrations have been increasing since 1985. Unlike sulfate, the pattern in historical trends for total phosphorus for the main-stem sites differed from tributary sites, indicating that human-induced changes affected tributaries and main-stem sites differently. The more detailed evaluation of flow-averaged water-quality conditions for the binational site provided an understanding of how loads have changed over time and what proportion of the year and season concentrations are expected to exceed water-quality objectives. In a basin with highly variable streamflow like the Red River of the North, the trend in flow-averaged load (assuming streamflow conditions are the same year after year) provided a robust measure of change over time. Increasing concentrations of sulfate, chloride, total dissolved solids, and total phosphorus since 1985 for the binational site resulted in longer periods of exceedance of water-quality objectives per year occurring over time. For total nitrogen, decreasing concentrations resulted in shorter periods of exceedance per year during 1980 to 2015, but concentrations were still expected to exceed the water-quality objective about half the year. Periods of when exceedances were likely to occur during the year were affected by the source and transport mechanisms of the constituent. Trend results from this effort identified how water quality has changed across the basin, and further investigation would help to identify causes for the trends observed here. Information from the current study provides a basis for future trend attribution studies, evaluation of water-quality objectives, and development of comprehensive strategies for reducing nutrients to desired targets and establishes a baseline for tracking future progress in the Red River of the North Basin.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Manitoba↗

USGS2013

Historical methane hydrate project review

In 1995, U.S. Geological Survey made the first systematic assessment of the volume of natural gas stored in the hydrate accumulations of the United States. That study, along with numerous other studies, has shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world greatly exceeds the volume of known conventional gas resources. However, gas hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of gas hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various gas hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural gas hydrates, and (5) analyzing the effects of methane hydrate on drilling safety. Methane hydrates are naturally occurring crystalline substances composed of water and gas, in which a solid water-‐lattice holds gas molecules in a cage-‐like structure. The gas and water becomes a solid under specific temperature and pressure conditions within the Earth, called the hydrate stability zone. Other factors that control the presence of methane hydrate in nature include the source of the gas included within the hydrates, the physical and chemical controls on the migration of gas with a sedimentary basin containing methane hydrates, the availability of the water also included in the hydrate structure, and the presence of a suitable host sediment or “reservoir”. The geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates have become collectively known as the “methane hydrate petroleum system”, which has become the focus of numerous hydrate research programs. Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the U.S. Congress enacted Public Law 106-‐193, the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. This Act called for the Secretary of Energy to begin a methane hydrate research and development program in consultation with other U.S. federal agencies. At the same time a new methane hydrate research program had been launched in Japan by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. Since this early start we have seen other countries including India, China, Canada, and the Republic of Korea establish large gas hydrate research and development programs. These national led efforts have also included the investment in a long list of important scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies that have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrate in nature. The most notable expeditions and projects have including the following: -‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 164 (1995) -‐Japan Nankai Trough Project (1999-‐2000) -‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 204 (2004) -‐Japan Tokai-‐oki to Kumano-‐nada Project (2004) -‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg I (2005) -‐Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 311 (2005) -‐Malaysia Gumusut-‐Kakap Project (2006) -‐India NGHP Expedition 01 (2006) -‐China GMGS Expedition 01 (2007) -‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 01 (2007) -‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg II (2009) -‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 02 (2010) -‐MH-‐21 Nankai Trough Pre-‐Production Expedition (2012-‐2013) -‐Mallik Gas Hydrate Testing Projects (1998/2002/2007-‐2008) -‐Alaska Mount Elbert Stratigraphic Test Well (2007) -‐Alaska Iġnik Sikumi Methane Hydrate Production Test Well (2011-‐2012) Research coring and seismic programs carried out by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), starting with the ODP Leg 164 drilling of the Blake Ridge in the Atlantic Ocean in 1995, have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the geologic controls on the formation, occurrence, and stability of gas hydrates in marine environments. For the most part methane hydrate research expeditions carried out by the ODP and IODP provided the foundation for our scientific understanding of gas hydrates. The methane hydrate research efforts under ODP-‐IODP have mostly dealt with the assessment of the geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate, with a specific goal to study the role methane hydrates may play in the global carbon cycle. Over the last 10 years, national led methane hydrate research programs, along with industry interest have led to the development and execution of major methane hydrate production field test programs. Two of the most important production field testing programs have been conducted at the Mallik site in the Mackenzie River Delta of Canada and in the Eileen methane hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska. Most recently we have also seen the completion of the world’s first marine methane hydrate production test in the Nankai Trough in the offshore of Japan. Industry interest in gas hydrates has also included important projects that have dealt with the assessment of geologic hazards associated with the presence of hydrates. The scientific drilling and associated coring, logging, and borehole monitoring technologies developed in the long list of methane hydrate related field studies are one of the most important developments and contributions associated with methane hydrate research and development activities. Methane hydrate drilling has been conducted from advanced scientific drilling platforms like the JOIDES Resolution and the D/V Chikyu, which feature highly advanced integrated core laboratories and borehole logging capabilities. Hydrate research drilling has also included the use of a wide array of industry, geotechnical and multi-‐service ships. All of which have been effectively used to collect invaluable geologic and engineering data on the occurrence of methane hydrates throughout the world. Technologies designed specifically for the collection and analysis of undisturbed methane hydrate samples have included the development of a host of pressure core systems and associated specialty laboratory apparatus. The study and use of both wireline conveyed and logging-‐while-‐drilling technologies have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the in-‐situ nature of hydrate-‐bearing sediments. Recent developments in borehole instrumentation specifically designed to monitor changes associated with hydrates in nature through time or to evaluate the response of hydrate accumulations to production have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the complex nature and evolution of methane hydrate systems. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur and behave in nature is still growing and evolving – we do not yet know if methane hydrates can be economically produced, nor do we know fully the role of hydrates as an agent of climate change or as a geologic hazard. But it is known for certain that scientific drilling has contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Report↗

USGS2013

Tectonic map of the Circum-Pacific region, Pacific basin sheet

Circum-Pacific Map Project : The Circum-Pacific Map Project was a cooperative international effort designed to show the relationship of known energy and mineral resources to the major geologic features of the Pacific basin and surrounding continental areas. Available geologic, mineral, and energy-resource data are being complemented by new, project-developed data sets such as magnetic lineations, seafloor mineral deposits, and seafloor sediment. Earth scientists representing some 180 organizations from more than 40 Pacific-region countries are involved in this work. Six overlapping equal-area regional maps at a scale of 1:10,000,000 form the cartographic base for the project: the four Circum-Pacific Quadrants (Northwest, Southwest, Southeast, and Northeast), and the Antarctic and Arctic Sheets. There is also a Pacific Basin Sheet at a scale of 1:17,000,000. The Base Map Series and the Geographic Series (published from 1977 to 1990), the Plate-Tectonic Series (published in 1981 and 1982), the Geodynamic Series (published in 1984 and 1985), and the Geologic Series (published from 1984 to 1989) all include six map sheets. Other thematic map series in preparation include Mineral-Resources, Energy-Resources and Tectonic Maps. Altogether, more than 50 map sheets are planned. The maps were prepared cooperatively by the Circum-Pacific Council for Energy and Mineral Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey and are available from the Branch of Distribution, U. S. Geological Survey, Box 25286, Federal Center, Denver, Colorado 80225, U.S.A. The Circum-Pacific Map Project is organized under six panels of geoscientists representing national earth-science organizations, universities, and natural-resource companies. The six panels correspond to the basic map areas. Current panel chairmen are Tomoyuki Moritani (Northwest Quadrant), R. Wally Johnson (Southwest Quadrant), Ian W.D. Dalziel (Antarctic Region), vacant. (Southeast Quadrant), Kenneth J. Drummond (Northeast Quadrant), and George W. Moore (Arctic Region). Project coordination and final cartography was being carried out through the cooperation of the Office of the Chief Geologist of the U.S. Geological Survey, under the direction of General Chairman, George Gryc of Menlo Park, California. Project headquarters were located at 345 Middlefield Road, MS 952, Menlo Park, California 94025, U.S.A. The framework for the Circum-Pacific Map Project was developed in 1973 by a specially convened group of 12 North American geoscientists meeting in California. The project was officially launched at the First Circum-Pacific Conference on Energy and Mineral Resources, which met in Honolulu, Hawaii, in August 1974. Sponsors of the conference were the AAPG, Pacific Science Association (PSA), and the Coordinating Committee for Offshore Prospecting for Mineral Resources in Offshore Asian Areas (CCOP). The Circum-Pacific Map Project operates as an activity of the Circum-Pacific Council for Energy and Mineral Resources, a nonprofit organization that promotes cooperation among Circum-Pacific countries in the study of energy and mineral resources of the Pacific basin. Founded by Michel T. Halbouty in 1972, the Council also sponsors conferences, topical symposia, workshops and the Earth Science Series books. Tectonic Map Series : The tectonic maps distinguish areas of oceanic and continental crust. Symbols in red mark active plate boundaries, and colored patterns show tectonic units (volcanic or magmatic arcs, arc-trench gaps, and interarc basins) associated with active plate margins. Well-documented inactive plate boundaries are shown by symbols in black. The tectonic development of oceanic crust is shown by episodes of seafloor spreading. These correlate with the rift and drift sequences at passive continental margins and episodes of tectonic activity at active plate margins. The recognized episodes of seafloor spreading seem to reflect major changes in plate kinematics. Oceanic plateaus and other prominences of greater than normal oceanic crustal thickness such as hotspot traces are also shown. Colored areas on the continents show the ages of deformation and metamorphism of basement rocks and the emplacement of igneous rocks. Transitional tectonic (molassic) and reactivation basins are shown by a colored boundary, and if they are deformed, a colored horizontal line pattern indicates the age of deformation. Colored bands along basin boundaries indicate age of inception, and isopachs indicate thickness of platform strata on continental crust and cover on oceanic crust. Colored patterns at separated continental margins show the age of inception of rift and drift (breakup) sequences. Symbols mark folds and faults, and special symbols show volcanoes and other structural features. Affiliations are as of compilation of the data. This map was created in quadrants and then compiled together. They are the Northwest land, Northwest Marine (different compilers), Northeast, Southwest and Southeast, and parts in plate-boundary sections.

Circum-Pacific Map↗

USGS2025

Evaluating drought risk of the Red River of the North Basin using historical and stochastic streamflow upstream from Emerson, Manitoba

Drought and its effect on streamflow are important to understand because of the potential to adversely affect water supply, agricultural production, and ecological conditions. The Red River of the North Basin in north-central United States and central Canada is susceptible to dry conditions. During an extended drought, streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North may become inadequate to support existing water supply needs in the basin for agriculture, industry, human use, and aquatic life. To understand potential future low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, Red River Joint Water Resource District, and Red River Watershed Management Board, developed a water-balance model of the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba, Canada, and coupled the model with stochastic weather inputs to simulate possible future low-streamflow conditions. Historical changes in low-streamflow conditions were characterized across the Red River of the North Basin using multiple change-point analysis for 12 streamgages. Across these stations, significant change-point years in 1943 and 1994 marked increases in the magnitude of low-streamflow conditions. During 1920–2015, conversion of primary land (not affected by human use) to agricultural and secondary land was followed by a conversion from smalls grains to corn and soybeans as the dominant crop type. From land-use analysis, 1940–2000 was determined to have relatively stable land use and therefore was used as the calibration period for the water-balance model. A deterministic water-balance model was developed for the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba. The water-balance model was calibrated with data from 37 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for 1940–2000 and verified using data for 2001–15. The calibrated water-balance model simulated streamflow distributions that mirrored the seasonal patterns of the observed mean monthly streamflow and the standard deviation of the monthly streamflow data, especially during the fall and winter months when streamflow was lowest. For the verification period, during the low-streamflow months of December through January, the difference between simulated and observed data was similar to the calibration comparison and successfully reproduced seasonal trends in the distribution of streamflow, even when using weather data that were outside the calibration period. To determine the future risk of low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, a block-bootstrap method was used to generate multiple possible future climates. These stochastically generated weather time series were then input to a water-balance model to simulate a distribution of possible streamflows. Three sets of experiments were performed, with each experiment containing a set of scenarios. The first set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were designed to investigate how changes in reservoir management would affect the distribution of low streamflow. Relative to scenario 1 (present-day [2023] reservoir operation), scenario 2 (no reservoir operation) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves downward, reducing the annual minimum monthly streamflow for the Emerson subbasin. Subbasins were defined by the contributing area upstream from a selected streamgage station. Relative to scenario 1, scenario 3 (regulated streamflow with an increased reservoir capacity of 10 percent) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves upward for the Emerson subbasin. The magnitude of this upward shift, caused by increased reservoir capacity, was lower than the magnitude of the shift caused by the absence of the reservoirs, which indicates that the streamflow was most affected when the reservoirs were first constructed. The second set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model included two scenarios that were performed to better understand how the Red River of the North Basin responds to long periods of low or high precipitation. The results indicate that the model consistently overestimated streamflow, but the relative change between a wet and dry climate state of simulated streamflow distribution reasonably matched the relative change of historical streamflow. Across the subbasins, the model was most accurate for low-streamflow conditions associated with nonexceedance probabilities between 20 and 40 percent. The third set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were done to investigate low-streamflow response across the basin to several drought events. Low-end streamflow was reduced when the basin was exposed to a drought, and the magnitude of the reduction increased with longer or more intense droughts. Compared to the low-intensity drought scenarios, the range of percent reductions (as indicated by the interquartile range) was larger for the high-intensity drought scenarios for all subbasins, and the subbasins of Grand Forks and Emerson had a smaller range of reductions compared to the other three subbasins. The larger drainage area—combined with the large contribution of the Red Lake River and several other Minnesota tributaries that generally experience wetter climate conditions—upstream from the Emerson and Grand Forks subbasins may contribute to the smaller range in reductions under the high intensity scenarios. Comparison of the percent reduction in low-end streamflow among subbasins also indicated that the effects of drought duration and intensity could be cumulative. Combining factors of time and intensity produced a larger reduction in streamflow than when each effect was isolated. The array of drought scenarios can be used to determine how a subbasin would respond to multiple possible future conditions. Based on climate predictions, the drought scenario that best matches a future anticipated drought scenario can be used to estimate a low streamflow response for a given subbasin.

Manitoba, Minnesota, North Dakota↗

USGS2007

Organic-carbon sequestration in soil/sediment of the Mississippi River deltaic plain — Data; landscape distribution, storage, and inventory; accumulation rates; and recent loss, including a post-Katrina preliminary analysis

Soil/sediment of the Mississippi River deltaic plain (MRDP) in southeastern Louisiana is rich in organic carbon (OC). The MRDP contains about 2 percent of all OC in the surface meter of soil/sediment in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). Environments within the MRDP differ in soil/sediment organic carbon (SOC) accumulation rate, storage, and inventory. The focus of this study was twofold: (1) develop a database for OC and bulk density for MRDP soil/sediment; and (2) estimate SOC storage, inventory, and accumulation rates for the dominant environments (brackish, intermediate, and fresh marsh; natural levee; distributary; backswamp; and swamp) in the MRDP. Comparative studies were conducted to determine which field and laboratory methods result in the most accurate and reproducible bulk-density values for each marsh environment. Sampling methods included push-core, vibracore, peat borer, and Hargis1 sampler. Bulk-density data for cores taken by the "short push-core method" proved to be more internally consistent than data for samples collected by other methods. Laboratory methods to estimate OC concentration and inorganic-constituent concentration included mass spectrometry, coulometry, and loss-on-ignition. For the sampled MRDP environments, these methods were comparable. SOC storage was calculated for each core with adequate OC and bulk-density data. SOC inventory was calculated using core-specific data from this study and available published and unpublished pedon data linked to SSURGO2 map units. Sample age was estimated using isotopic cesium ( 37 Cs), lead ( 210 Pb), and carbon ( 14 C), elemental Pb, palynomorphs, other stratigraphic markers, and written history. SOC accumulation rates were estimated for each core with adequate age data. Cesium-137 profiles for marsh soil/sediment are the least ambiguous. Levee and distributary 137 Cs profiles show the effects of intermittent allochthonous input and/or sediment resuspension. Cesium-137 and 210 Pb data gave the most consistent and interpretable information for age estimations of soil/sediment deposited during the 1900s. For several cores, isotopic 14 C and 137 Cs data allowed the 1963-64 nuclear weapons testing (NWT) peak-activity datum to be placed within a few-centimeter depth interval. In some cores, a too old 14 C age (when compared to 137 Cs and microstratigraphic-marker data) is the probable result of old carbon bound to clay minerals incorporated into the organic soil/sediment. Elemental Pb coupled with Pb source-function data allowed age estimation for soil/sediment that accumulated during the late 1920s through the 1980s. Exotic pollen (for example, Vigna unguiculata and Alternanthera philoxeroides ) and other microstratigraphic indicators (for example, carbon spherules) allowed age estimations for marsh soil/sediment deposited during the settlement of New Orleans (1717-20) through the early 1900s. For this study, MRDP distributary and swamp environments were each represented by only one core, backswamp environment by two cores, all other environments by three or more cores. MRDP core data for the surface meter soil/sediment indicate that (1) coastal marshes, abandoned distributaries, and swamps have regional SOC-storage values >16 kg m -2 ; (2) swamps and abandoned distributaries have the highest SOC storage values (swamp, 44.8 kg m -2 ; abandoned distributary, 50.9 kg m -2 ); (3) fresh-to-brackish marsh environments have the second highest site-specific SOC-storage values; and (4) site-specific marsh SOC storage values decrease as the salinity of the environment increases (fresh-marsh, 36.2 kg m -2 ; intermediate marsh, 26.2 kg m -2 ; brackish marsh, 21.5 kg m -2 ). This inverse relation between salinity and SOC storage is opposite the regional systematic increase in SOC storage with increasing salinity that is evident when SOC storage is mapped by linking pedon data to SSURGO map units (fresh marsh, 47 kg m -2 ; intermediate marsh, 67 kg m -2 ; brackish marsh, 75 kg m -2 ; and salt marsh, 80 kg m -2 ). MRDP core data for this study also indicate that levees and backswamp have regional SOC-storage values <16 kg m -2 . Group-mean SOC storage for cores from these environments are natural levee (17.0 kg m -2 ) and backswamp (14.1 kg m -2 ). An estimate for the SOC inventory in the surface meter of soil/sediment in the MRDP can be made using the SSURGO mapped portion of the coastal-marsh vegetative-type map (13,236 km 2 , land-only area) published by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries and U.S. Geological Survey (1997). This area has a SOC inventory (surface meter) of 677 Tg (slightly more than 2 percent of the 30,289 Tg SOC inventory for the MRB). The MRDP (6,180 km2, land-only area) has an estimated SOC inventory of 397 Tg. Most of the MRDP is located within the SSURGO mapped coastal marshlands. The entire MRDP, including water, has an area of about 10,800 km 2 . Using the ratio of total MRDP area to SSURGO mapped MRDP area as an adjustment, the MRDP SOC inventory is estimated at 694 Tg. This larger estimate of 694 Tg for the SOC inventory is probably more realistic, because it is reasonable to assume that the marsh sediments overlain by shallow water have comparable SOC storage to that of the adjacent land areas. MRDP core data for this study indicate that there is some variability in long-term SOC mass-accumulation rates for centuries and millennia and that this variability may indicate important geologic changes or changes in land use. However, the consistency of the range in rates of SOC accumulation through time suggests a remarkable degree of marsh sustainability throughout the Holocene, including the recent period of significant marsh modification/channelization for human use. One example of marsh sustainability is its present ability to function as a SOC sink even with Louisiana's large-scale coastal land loss during the last several decades. With coastal-marsh restoration efforts, this sink potential will increase. Looking to the future, a total of 1,101 g m -2 yr -1 SOC is projected to be lost from all of coastal Louisiana (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) subprovinces 1-4; not just the MRDP) through coastal erosion from year 2000 to 2050. This translates to a projected SOC-loss rate of about 0.20 percent per year. The recent Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which devastated the Louisiana coast during late August and late September 2005, transformed about 259 km 2 (100 mi 2 ) of marsh to open water (U.S. Geological Survey, 2005). To the extent that some or all of this land loss is permanent, this result equates to a SOC loss of about 15 Tg. This estimate is based on the year-2000 15,153-km 2 land area for the LCA study area that includes LCA subprovince 4. Using the year-2000 land area, the LCA study area had an estimated SOC inventory of 858 Tg. The estimated 15 Tg SOC loss attributable to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita is 1.7 percent of the year-2000 LCA inventory and 2.3 percent of the year-2000 MRDP inventory. If this SOC loss is included in the projection for the year 2050, then the MRDP would either remain a source with a net SOC loss of 3 Tg or become a weak sink with a net SOC gain of 4 Tg. These estimates are lower bounds for potential SOC flux because they are only for the surface meter of landmass.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Two hundred years of magma transport and storage at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, 1790-2008

This publication summarizes the evolution of the internal plumbing of Kīlauea Volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi from the first documented eruption in 1790 to the explosive eruption of March 2008 in Halemaʻumaʻu Crater. For the period before the founding of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory in 1912, we rely on written observations of eruptive activity, earthquake swarms, and periodic draining of magma from the lava lake present in Kīlauea Caldera. After 1912 the written observations are supplemented by continuous measurement of tilting of the ground at Kīlauea’s summit and by a continuous instrumental record of earthquakes, both measurements made during 1912–56 by a single pendulum seismometer housed on the northeast edge of Kīlauea’s summit. Interpretations become more robust following the installation of seismic and deformation networks in the 1960s. A major advance in the 1990s was the ability to continuously record and telemeter ground deformation to allow its precise correlation with seismic activity before and after eruptions, intrusions, and large earthquakes. We interpret specific events in Kīlauea’s 200- year written history as steps in a broad transition from summit lava-lake activity in Kīlauea Caldera to shield building on the east rift zone. The ability of the magmatic plumbing to deliver magma to eruption is critical to the history of eruption and intrusion. When the rate of magma supply equals the rate of eruption, there is little ground deformation or intrusion. When the magma supply rate is greater than the rate of eruption, then the edifice responds through any or all of summit inflation, intrusion, increased spreading rate, and large flank earthquakes. In Kīlauea’s 200-year history we identify three regions of the volcano in which magma is stored and supplied from below. Source 1 is at 1-km depth or less beneath Kīlauea’s summit and fed Kīlauea’s summit lava lakes throughout most of the 19th century and again from 1907 to 1924. Source 1 was used up in the series of small Halemaʻumaʻu eruptions following the end of lava-lake activity in the summit collapse of 1924. Source 2 is the magma reservoir at a depth of 2–6 km beneath Kīlauea’s summit that has been imaged by seismic and deformation measurements beginning in the 1960s. This source was first identified in the summit collapses of 1922 and 1924. Source 3 is a diffuse volume of magma-permeated rock between 5 and 11 km depth beneath the east rift zone and above the near-horizontal decollement at the base of the Kīlauea edifice. Magma distribution within source 2 has been derived by combining petrologic study of the three chemically uniform summit eruptions of 1952, 1961, and 1967–68 and the east rift eruptions within this interval with both observation of migrating centers of inflation determined from leveling surveys conducted before the 1967–68 eruption and with published models of expected deformation from different source geometries. We adopt a model of concatenated magmatic plugs with nodes beneath the inflation centers. Addition of erupted and intruded volumes of the three summit magma batches yields a liquid magma volume of about 0.2 km3, with dimensions of ~1 km by 1 km by 200 m centered at about 3-km depth within source 2. Following the Halemaʻumaʻu eruption of 1967–68, the chemistry of magma coming into Kīlauea’s summit reservoir has changed frequently, and during the eruption that began in 1983, chemical changes have been subtle and continuous. In this period we interpret changes in chemistry as related to an increase in magma supply resulting from increased partial melting in an expanding mantle source volume. We know from instrumental recording of eruptions since the long Halemaʻumaʻu eruption in 1952 that stress in the edifice accumulates as magma is added underground and is relieved by eruption and by dilation of the rift zones associated with seaward movement (spreading) of Kīlauea’s south flank. During and after the last half of the 20th century, magma transfer to the rift zone has dominantly occurred from source 2. High rates of flank motion have been correlated with high rates of endogenous growth; alternatively, lower rates of motion have characterized periods when the underground magmatic plumbing was being refilled following lateral removal of magma, as well as periods when a more open magmatic plumbing favored continuous eruption. Since at least 1952, source 3 has not drained during deflations, which was apparently not the case before 1924. Triangulation and leveling conducted in 1912, 1921, and 1926, combined with post-1912 tilt measurements, identified a broad regional uplift in 1918–19 and an equally broad collapse in 1924, neither of which has been seen since. We associate these elevation changes with addition or subtraction of magma from all three magma sources, dominantly source 3. We interpret the intrusion beneath the east rift zone during the 1924 collapse to have stabilized the rift zone-south flank relationship, preventing loss of magma from source 3 in subsequent collapses. Rates of seaward spreading were low until 1952, when earthquakes in 1950 and 1951 associated with surges of magma from the hotspot triggered a large offshore south flank earthquake swarm that unlocked the south flank and enabled a greatly increased rate of seaward spreading. Magma supply rates have been derived for the entire period of study. Between 1823 and 1840, magma was supplied from source 1 at a very high rate of more than 0.2 km 3 /yr, which we interpret as recovery from a substantial draining of magma from beneath Kīlauea in 1790. Inferred magma supply rates diminished to one-tenth of that value after 1840, in part because of increase in the activity of Mauna Loa beginning in 1843. Magma supply rates between 1918 and 1924 were about 0.024 km 3 /yr, matching that of the period from 1840 to 1894. During 1950–52 the magma supply rate increased to about 0.06 km 3 /yr, in part because of the great reduction in Mauna Loa activity following its large eruption in June 1950. Following the summit eruption of 1967–68, magma supply increased further to ~0.1 km 3 /yr, and further increases to more than 0.2 km 3 /yr occurred during the east rift eruption that began in 1983. Eruption at Kīlauea’s summit took place in 1952, and eruptive activity steadily increased as increased magma supply also drove increased spreading rates. The inability of magma supply to be accommodated by a combination of eruption and spreading during the 1969–74 Mauna Ulu period stressed Kīlauea’s south flank. The stress was relieved in part by the M7.2 earthquake of 29 November 1975. That earthquake, in turn, dilated Kīlauea’s east rift zone as the south flank moved seaward, producing a favorable condition for continuous east rift eruption, which began in 1983. The 1975 earthquake also resulted in the ability of the south flank to move independently under the influence of gravity, effectively decoupling the spreading rate from changes in the magma supply rate. The continuing increase in magma supply after 1983 was instead manifested in rift dilation, increased intrusion, and ultimately in the launching of a second eruption in Halemaʻumaʻu in March 2008, the first instance in Kīlauea’s recorded history of simultaneous eruption at the summit and on the east rift zone. Kīlauea’s history can be considered in cycles of equilibrium, crisis, and recovery. The approach of a crisis is driven by a magma supply rate that greatly exceeds the capacity of the plumbing to deliver magma to the surface. Crises can be anticipated by inflation measured at Kīlauea’s summit coupled with an increase in overall seismicity, particularly manifest by intrusion and eruption in the southwest sector of the volcano. Unfortunately the nature of the crisis—for example, large earthquake, new eruption, or edifice-changing intrusion—cannot be specified ahead of time. We conclude that Kīlauea’s cycles are controlled by nonlinear dynamics, which underscores the difficulty in predicting eruptions and earthquakes.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2016

Benthic processes affecting contaminant transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Multiple sampling trips during calendar years 2013 through 2015 were coordinated to provide measurements of interdependent benthic processes that potentially affect contaminant transport in Upper Klamath Lake (UKL), Oregon. The measurements were motivated by recognition that such internal processes (for example, solute benthic flux, bioturbation and solute efflux by benthic invertebrates, and physical groundwater-surface water interactions) were not integrated into existing management models for UKL. Up until 2013, all of the benthic-flux studies generally had been limited spatially to a number of sites in the northern part of UKL and limited temporally to 2–3 samplings per year. All of the benthic invertebrate studies also had been limited to the northern part of the lake; however, intensive temporal (weekly) studies had previously been completed independent of benthic-flux studies. Therefore, knowledge of both the spatial and temporal variability in benthic flux and benthic invertebrate distributions for the entire lake was lacking. To address these limitations, we completed a lakewide spatial study during 2013 and a coordinated temporal study with weekly sampling of benthic flux and benthic invertebrates during 2014. Field design of the spatially focused study in 2013 involved 21 sites sampled three times as the summer cyanobacterial bloom developed (that is, May 23 , June 13 , and July 3, 2013). Results of the 27-week, temporally focused study of one site in 2014 were summarized and partitioned into three periods (referred to herein as pre-bloom, bloom and post-bloom periods), each period involving 9 weeks of profiler deployments, water column and benthic sampling. Partitioning of the pre-bloom, bloom, and post-bloom periods were based on water-column chlorophyll concentrations and involved the following date intervals, respectively: April 15 through June 10 , June 17 through August 13 , and August 20 through October 16, 2014. To examine dissolved-solute (0.2-micrometer [μm] filtered) benthic flux, sets of nonmetallic pore-water profilers (U.S. Patent 8,051,727 B1) were deployed. In 2013, the deployment of profilers at 21 UKL sites occurred at the beginning of the annual cyanobacterial bloom of Aphanizomenon flos–aquae (AFA), in the middle of the bloom period, and at the peak of the bloom. Coordinated benthic invertebrate collections also were made. Based on results from 2013, weekly deployments of profilers and collection of benthic invertebrate samples from late spring to early autumn were used to estimate temporal trends in solute flux and benthic invertebrate densities. Estimates of nutrient efflux by benthic invertebrates were determined in the spring and autumn from 2011 through 2013 and three times (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2015. This work extends UKL studies that began in 2006 to quantify the importance of benthic solute sources in the lake. In 2015, piezometers and thermistor sets were deployed to quantify potential groundwater exchange with the lake water column. Analysis of the 2013 soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) benthic flux indicated no effect of location (lake region), habitat, or sampling period, and the average lakewide flux values were consistent with earlier studies that had been confined to the northern region of UKL and adjacent wetlands. The 2014 study therefore focused on estimating temporal trends at a site within Ball Bay. During both 2013 and 2014 field studies, fluxes of macronutrients (soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonia) and micronutrients (iron [Fe] and manganese [Mn]) were consistently positive and increased prior to the initial AFA bloom, varied or lagged with water-column chlorophyll during the summer bloom period, then decreased after the cyanobacterial blooms, only to rebound toward pre-bloom conditions in the final weeks of sampling. These four solutes exhibited benthic loads greater than maximum riverine loads estimated during the spring and early summers of 2013 and 2014. However, consistently detectable concentrations for all four solutes provide no evidence that they consistently serve as the limiting nutrient for primary production in the lake. In contrast to the four solutes (SRP, ammonia, Fe, and Mn), benthic fluxes of dissolved arsenic (As) were both negative and positive (that is, the lakebed currently serves as both a source and a sink for dissolved As, depending on season). In a further contrast with SRP, ammonia, dissolved Fe, and Mn, dissolved-As riverine loads to UKL were of similar magnitude to benthic loads. A negative relationship between dissolved-As flux and water-column As over the 2014 temporal study provides a potential advantage for the management of water-quality in contrast to solutes, like SRP or ammonia, with consistently positive flux. The mean total benthic invertebrate density during 2013 was 12,610 individuals per square meter (n=63). Although benthic invertebrate density did not change over the study period, it was higher in littoral habitats than open-lake or trench habitats and higher in the northern region compared to the central or southern regions of UKL. Mean total benthic invertebrate density during 2014 was 19,726 individuals m −2 (n=27). Density during the pre-bloom and bloom periods of April 15 to August 13, 2014 (the first two thirds of the 2014 sampling period), were similar to 2013. However, benthic invertebrate density more than doubled during the latter one-third of the study, that is, the post-bloom period between August 20 to October 16, 2014. Oligochaeta, Chironomidae and Hirudinea represented well over 90 percent of the benthic fauna; Oligochaeta were twice as abundant as Chironomidae or Hirudinea, the latter two of which were similar in density. Benthic invertebrates may enhance dissolved-nutrient (or toxicant) transport across the sediment-water interface by (1) modifying diffusion-layer thicknesses and permeability through bioturbation, (2) enhancing advective flow across the interface through bioirrigation, and (3) excreting or expelling dissolved or particulate solutes directly into the overlying water column (Boudreau and Jorgensen, 2001). We evaluated SRP efflux via excretion for approximately 15 different major taxa in UKL. Once these measures were scaled, it was evident that benthic invertebrates potentially contribute approximately 1.5 times the amount of SRP to the water column of Upper Klamath Lake as diffusive SRP flux alone, measured in profiler deployments. Sets of piezometers and temperature loggers were deployed in UKL to obtain estimates of vertical advective solute flux. The pressure transducer installations, within the piezometers, did not perform as designed, rendering the head gradient data unreliable. However, in terms of future research, this field work did demonstrate the feasibility of collecting vertical gradient data with piezometer deployments. Advective flux estimates herein are based solely on heat-flow modeling based on temperature data from four lake sites, without use of transducer data. Given the magnitudes (both positive or negative) of the heat-transfer fluxes for SRP, relative to diffusive-flux and macroinvertebrate efflux measurements (all positive but spanning the same orders of magnitude), further examination of solute advective flux is recommended as a potential transport process to integrate into existing water-quality (for example, Total Maximum Daily Load [TMDL]) models. As a complement to the biogeochemical focus of this study, initial analyses of suspended-particle (floc) characteristics and settling velocities from the water column were derived near the surface and lakebed at two UKL sites. To better understand changing particle characteristics during the AFA-bloom period, suspended particles were examined in 2015 using a LabSFLOC (LF), which is a Laboratory Spectral Flocculation Characteristics version of an In-Situ Settling Velocity instrument (INSSEV-LF). Particle characteristics and settling velocities were analyzed from the water column near the surface (sample dp_10 ) and lakebed (sample dp_90 ) at two lake sites (open-lake site ML and littoral site LS01). The term “floc” refers herein to suspended particles that may aggregate or disaggregate to change in size, composition, and settling velocity. During pre-bloom (May) conditions, where maximum suspended particulate matter concentration (SPMC) was 140 milligrams per liter (mg L −1 ) was now observed at site LS01 in close proximity to the bed, where D mean peaked at 305 μm, and the corresponding Ws mean was 3.9 millimeters per second (mm s −1 ). The high near-bed SPMC (828 mg L −1 ) experienced during post-bloom October 2015 at LS01 formed a benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) above the lake’s bed. Numerous low density, fast settling macrofloc-sized organic aggregates (D >160 μm) were observed (some up to 1 mm in size) near bed at LS01 both during the bloom and post-bloom conditions; many of these flocs displayed fibrous organic structures. In terms of mass settling fluxes, the post-bloom BNL produced a total MSF of 4,139 milligrams per square meter per second (mg m −2 s −1 ) (92.1 percent of MSF credited to the macrofloc-sized organic aggregates/cyanobacterial colonies); that was nearly three times the corresponding near-bed settling flux observed during the July 2015 bloom and 360 times greater than the pre-bloom conditions from May 2015 (98.8 percent and 14 percent of MSF credited to the macrofloc-sized fractions for those respective months). Such changes in the near-bed settling flux demonstrate the highly significant seasonal effects that the AFA bloom has on the floc depositional fluxes in UKL and highlights the importance of seasonal monitoring of these conditions in order to correctly parameterize the wide range in depositional characteristics and floc properties measured throughout UKL. Collectively, floc populations observed within UKL demonstrated a wide range in settling velocity (Ws) for a given particle size, D. Similarly, a given settling velocity was not associated with a specific particle size. This variability in particle characteristics and properties indicates the influence of varying floc effective density and its effect on mass and mass settling fluxes (MSF). The use of instruments, such as the INSSEV-LF, enables measuring the variability of settling velocity and its relation to particle density and size.

Oregon↗