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Science support for evaluating natural recovery of polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in fish from Crab Orchard Lake, Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge, Illinois

Introduction Crab Orchard Lake in southern Illinois is one of the largest and most popular recreational lakes in the state. Construction of the nearly 7,000-acre reservoir in the late 1930s created employment opportunities through the Works Progress Administration, and the lake itself was intended to supply water, control flooding, and provide recreational opportunities for local communities (Stall, 1954). In 1942, the Department of War appropriated or purchased more than 20,000 acres of land around Crab Orchard Lake and constructed the Illinois Ordnance Plant, which manufactured bombs and anti-tank mines during World War II. After the war, an Act of Congress transferred the property to the U.S. Department of the Interior. Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge was established on August 5, 1947, for the joint purposes of wildlife conservation, agriculture, recreation, and industry. Production of explosives continued, but new industries also moved onsite. More than 200 tenants have held leases with Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge and have operated a variety of manufacturing plants (electrical components, plated metal parts, ink, machined parts, painted products, and boats) on-site. Soils, water, and sediments in several areas of the refuge were contaminated with hazardous substances from handling and disposal methods that are no longer acceptable environmental practice (for example, direct discharge to surface water, use of unlined landfills). Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination at the refuge was identified in the 1970s, and a PCB-based fish-consumption advisory has been in effect since 1988 for Crab Orchard Lake. The present advisory covers common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ); see Illinois Department of Public Health (2017). Some of the most contaminated areas of the refuge were actively remediated, and natural ecosystem recovery processes are expected to further reduce residual PCB concentrations in the lake. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service sought technical support to understand environmental drivers of current (2017) PCB residues in fish tissue and patterns in PCB residues through time to inform the fish-consumption advisory for Crab Orchard Lake. This project is planned in two phases (Tasks 1 and 2); the first phase is included in this report. Task 1, reported here, includes a review of existing literature and a brief overview focused on environmental and biochemical/physiological processes that drive PCB residues in fish tissue. This review specifically targets processes that are relevant for freshwater lacustrine environments such as those at Crab Orchard Lake. In addition to discussions of environmental fate, metabolism, and accumulation of PCBs, this review includes a brief scientifically based explanation of approaches used to establish fish-consumption advisories. A planned second task (Task 2) will include a compilation and summary of existing data on PCB residues in fish tissue samples from Crab Orchard Lake. This summary will also place Crab Orchard Lake data in a broader geographic context through a comparison with fish data from other Midwestern lakes. When Task 1 and Task 2 are complete, resource managers will have (a) a synthesis of existing literature that characterizes the processes influencing the fate of residual PCBs remaining in systems such as Crab Orchard Lake, (b) a summary of natural PCB attenuation processes for use in risk communication with the public, and (c) a summary of existing data on PCBs in fish tissues from Crab Orchard Lake, including exploratory plots of tissue residues through time. Overall, this project will provide data to help resource managers better understand the ecological and public health consequences of residual PCBs in Crab Orchard Lake.

Illinois↗

Using microbial source tracking to identify fecal contamination sources in South Oyster Bay on Long Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey worked in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to assess the potential sources of fecal contamination entering South Oyster Bay, a shallow embayment on the southern shore of Long Island, New York. Water samples are routinely collected by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in the bay and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, an indicator of fecal contamination, to determine the need for closure of shellfish beds for harvest and consumption. Fecal coliform and other bacteria are an indicator of the potential presence of pathogenic (disease-causing) bacteria. However, indicator bacteria alone cannot determine the biological or geographical sources of contamination; therefore, microbial source tracking was implemented to determine various biological sources of contamination. In addition, information such as the location, weather and season, and surrounding land use where a sample was collected help determine the geographical source and conveyance of land-based water to the embayment. Analysis revealed that the most substantial source of fecal contamination to South Oyster Bay was stormwater, particularly during the summer months. The highest frequency of fecal coliform detections in source sites were under wet summer conditions, and the highest fecal coliform concentrations were under wet summer conditions at the Cedar Creek near Bay Place and Unqua Lake Culvert sites (more than 16,000 most probable number per 100 milliliters each). The human-associated Bacteroides marker was the most frequently detected microbial source tracking marker in South Oyster Bay (50 percent positive detections). The human marker was detected at least twice in all surface water source and receptor sites, except for the Massapequa Lake East Culvert source site that did not have any positive human marker detections. Canine contamination was prolific at source sites but was associated with low fecal coliform concentrations in the winter months. All detections of the canine-associated Bacteroides marker were in samples collected during the winter season and were associated with fecal coliform concentrations below the reporting limit, indicating that birds are not a persistent source of fecal coliform to South Oyster Bay. The absence of fecal coliform and human markers in groundwater samples collected throughout the larger study area indicates that water from cesspools or septic tanks do not contribute fecal coliform to the bay. Further, microbial source tracking markers were not detected in the sandy sediment collected at Zachs Bay. Based a classification scheme developed to convey the degree of fecal contamination to stakeholders and resource managers, the Cedar Creek near Bay Place and Unqua Lake Culvert sites were identified as locations that contribute substantial fecal contamination to South Oyster Bay.

New York↗

A monitoring framework to assess forest bird population response to landscape scale mosquito suppression using the Incompatible Insect Technique

The Birds, Not Mosquitoes Monitoring and Support Science Working Group detailed methods for monitoring the population response of Hawaiian forest birds during implementation of the Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) on the islands of Maui and Kauaʻi. The group prioritized methods for measuring the influence of mosquito suppression on populations within IIT treatment and control areas and identified focal species for IIT efficacy monitoring in birds. Three primary metrics were established to assess the impact of IIT on vulnerable species: population demography, density, and geographic range. Each metric can be evaluated using multiple methods. This report reviews those methods, with emphasis on approaches supported by pre-IIT baseline data and compatible with a before-after control-impact (BACI) study design for evaluating population responses over time. Focal avian species were selected based on population size estimates, fecundity, and disease susceptibility. We identified ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei), ʻiʻiwi (Drepanis coccinea), Maui ʻalauahio (Paroreomyza montana), Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens), Kauaʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis stejnegeri), Kauaʻi ʻelepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), and ʻanianiau (Magumma parva) as focal species for monitoring population level response to disease suppression. Populations of kiwikiu (Pseudonestor xanthophrys), ʻakikiki (Oreomystis bairdi), akekeʻe (Loxops caeruleirostris), and the ʻiʻiwi population on Kauaʻi may be too small (e.g., <100 individuals) to effectively monitor, and it is unlikely that sufficient data can be collected from these birds to show IIT efficacy in a relatively short time frame (i.e., 5–10 years). Despite the logistical challenges to IIT implementation, there is potential to maintain disease-free status in individual populations of birds. Indeed, the continued existence of these critically endangered species in the wild within or near IIT treatment areas could be considered an accomplishment of IIT, given the current predictions for their extinction in the wild within 5–10 years. Demographic monitoring methods, including territory mapping, nest monitoring, mist-netting, and mark-recapture studies, provide direct evidence of survivorship and reproductive output. When combined with disease surveillance, these approaches could provide the most robust evidence of increased survivorship and productivity resulting from avian malaria suppression via IIT. However, demographic studies require several years of monitoring to achieve statistically robust BACI comparisons of survivorship and are more difficult to implement relative to other approaches. Given that these field efforts are labor-intensive and heavily reliant on personnel availability and funding, demographic monitoring could be conducted when adequate resources permit. On both Maui and Kauaʻi, passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) was identified as a priority method for monitoring the range, occupancy, and relative abundance of focal species. Autonomous recording units (ARUs) can record bird vocalizations in remote areas for several months. Innovative machine learning techniques permit rapid and semi-autonomous identification of most endemic honeycreepers on each island, maximizing sampling efficiencies and minimizing data processing costs. We predict mosquito suppression could support expansion of focal species into areas where disease transmission is currently excluding these species and expect acoustic monitoring data of focal species to reflect these spatial patterns. Additionally, the relative occupancy and call densities can be monitored temporally and spatially to assess the efficacy of IIT for supporting positive growth in vulnerable bird species. It is not yet clear if PAM is more effective than other methods, such as distance sampling, for detecting trends in the densities of rare species. However, the increased detections resulting from the larger sample size per observation point using ARUs will likely improve accuracy in detecting changes in species’ ranges. Collection of during and after treatment data within the BACI design could help to provide critical information to track avian population response, recovery, and potential range expansion related to IIT efforts. Point-transect distance sampling (point-counts) was prioritized as a method for monitoring population densities of focal species. Extensive historical sampling across focal species’ ranges provides a robust baseline for detecting change. These counts provide updated population densities and can be used to assess the distribution of focal species within IIT treatment areas. However, detecting subtle population changes with traditional distance sampling requires intensive spatial and temporal effort and may be less effective for rare species. To improve resolution, density surface modeling can integrate multiple data sources (e.g., point-counts, PAM, spot-mapping, and resightings) to estimate species-specific densities at finer spatial scales, including within and outside IIT treatment areas. This integrated modeling approach allows for detailed comparisons and may reveal early signs of recovery, including recolonization of formerly occupied sites. A coordinated monitoring strategy can allow managers to evaluate the success of mosquito suppression as a conservation intervention and support adaptive management in the face of emerging challenges.

Hawaii↗

Depletion of rice as food of waterfowl wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Waterfowl habitat conservation strategies in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) and several other wintering areas assume carrying capacity is limited by available food, and increasing food resources is an effective conservation goal. Because existing research on winter food abundance and depletion is insufficient to test this hypothesis, we used harvested rice fields as model foraging habitats to determine if waste rice seed is depleted before spring migration. We sampled rice fields ( n = 39 [winter 2000–2001], n = 69 [2001–2002]) to estimate seed mass when waterfowl arrived in late autumn and departed in late winter. We also placed exclosures in subsets of fields in autumn ( n = 8 [2000–2001], n = 20 [2001–2002]) and compared seed mass inside and outside exclosures in late winter to estimate rice depletion attributable to waterfowl and other processes. Finally, we used an experiment to determine if the extent of rice depletion differed among fields of varying initial abundance and if the seed mass at which waterfowl ceased foraging or abandoned fields differed from a hypothesized giving-up value of 50 kg/ha. Mean seed mass was greater in late autumn 2000 than 2001 (127.0 vs. 83.9 kg/ha; P = 0.018) but decreased more during winter 2000–2001 than 2001–2002 (91.3 vs. 55.7 kg/ha) and did not differ at the end of winter (35.8 vs. 28.3 kg/ha; P = 0.651). Assuming equal loss to deterioration inside and outside exclosures, we estimated waterfowl consumed 61.3 kg/ha (48.3%) of rice present in late autumn 2000 and 21.1 kg/ha (25.1%) in 2001. When we manipulated late-autumn rice abundance, mean giving-up mass of rice seed was similar among treatments (48.7 kg/ha; P = 0.205) and did not differ from 50 kg/ha ( P = 0.726). We integrated results by constructing scenarios in which waterfowl consumed rice at different times in winter, consumption and deterioration were competing risks, and consumption occurred only above 50 kg/ha. Results indicated waterfowl likely consumed available rice soon after fields were flooded and the amount consumed exceeded our empirical estimates but was ≤48% (winters pooled) of rice initially present. We suggest 1) using 50 kg/ha as a threshold below which profitability limits waterfowl feeding in MAV rice fields; 2) reducing the current estimate (130 kg/ha) of rice consumed in harvested fields to 47.2 kg/ha; and 3) increasing available rice by increasing total area of fields managed, altering management practices (e.g., staggered flooding), and exploring the potential for producing second or ratoon rice crops for waterfowl.

Arkansas;Illinois;Kentucky;Louisiana;Mississippi;M↗

Moving at the speed of flight: Dabbling duck-movement rates and the relationship with electronic tracking interval

Context. Effective wildlife management requires information on habitat and resource needs, which can be estimated with movement information and modelling energetics. One necessary component of avian models is flight speeds at multiple temporal scales. Technology has limited the ability to accurately assess flight speeds, leading to estimates of questionable accuracy, many of which have not been updated in almost a century. Aims. We aimed to update flight speeds of ducks, and differentiate between migratory and non-migratory flight speeds, a detail that was unclear in previous estimates. We also analysed the difference in speeds of migratory and non-migratory flights, and quantified how data collected at different temporal intervals affected estimates of flight speed. Methods. We tracked six California dabbling duck species with high spatio-temporal resolution GPS–GSM transmitters, calculated speeds of different flight types, and modelled how estimates varied by flight and data interval (30 min to 6 h). Key results. Median migratory speeds were faster (but non-significant) for the larger mallard (Anas platyrhynchos; 82.5 km h–1), northern pintail (Anas acuta; 79.0 km h–1) and gadwall (Mareca strepera; 70.6 km h–1), than the smaller-bodied northern shoveler (Spatula clypeata; 65.7 km h–1), cinnamon teal (Spatula cyanoptera; 63.5 km h–1) and American wigeon (Mareca Americana; 52 km h–1). Migratory flights were faster than non-migratory flights for all species and speeds were consistently slower with an increasing data interval. Implications. The need to balance time and energy requirements may drive different speeds for migratory and non-migratory flights. Lower speeds at longer intervals are likely to be due to a greater proportion of ‘loafing’ time included in flighted segments, demonstrating that data acquired at different intervals provide a means to evaluate and estimate behaviours that influence speed estimation. Shorter-interval data should be the most accurate, but longer-interval data may be easier to collect over lengthier timeframes, so it may be expedient to trade-off a degree of accuracy in broad-scale studies for the larger dataset. Our updated flight speeds for dabbling duck species can be used to parameterise and validate energetics models, guide management decisions regarding optimal habitat distribution, and, ultimately, improve conservation management of wetlands for waterfowl.

Wildlife Research↗

Simulation of the effects of management alternatives on the stream-aquifer system, South Fork Solomon River Valley between Webster Reservoir and Waconda Lake, north-central Kansas

With extensive irrigation use of both surface water and groundwater in the South Fork Solomon River valley shortages of these water supplies have been created. A two-dimensional digital model of transient groundwater flow was applied to investigate the potential effects on the stream aquifer system of seven management alternatives. These alternatives included proposals to conserve surface water supplies by lining the Osborne Irrigation Canal with clay, replacing the lateral canals with pipe, removing phreatophytes, decreasing surface water use by 75%, 50%, or 25% and replacing it with groundwater sources, and continuing 1978 groundwater use and 1970-78 average surface water use until the end of the 20th century. Results were assessed by comparison of drawdowns of hydraulic head in the alluvial aquifer and base flow for each simulation. As listed in order of the smallest to the greatest potential effects on the system relative to drawdown and base flow the alternatives are: (1) removal of one-half of the phreatophytes; (2) continuation of 1978 groundwater withdrawals and average 1970-78 surface water supply; (3) replacement of the lateral canals with pipe; (4) lining the Osborne Irrigation Canal with clay; (5) decrease of surface water use by 25% and replacement of it with groundwater; (6) decrease of surface water use by 50% and replacement of it with groundwater; and (7) decrease of surface water use by 75% and replacement of it with groundwater. The removal of one-half of the phreatophytes would result in a decrease in average drawdown in the alluvial aquifer to about 1.74 ft and an increase in base flow of the Solomon River to about 12.3 cu ft/sec. The decrease of surface water supply by 75 % and a corresponding increase in groundwater withdrawal would result in an increase in drawdown in the aquifer to about 2.5 ft and a decrease in base flow to about 6.8 cu ft/sec. (Lantz-PTT)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Blue snowflakes in a warming world: Karner blue butterfly climate change vulnerability synthesis and best practices for adaptation

This report—developed at the request of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service-led Karner Blue Butterfly Recovery Team by Recovery Team members and partners—provides a Karner blue butterfly climate change vulnerability synthesis, explores a range of potential responses, and presents best practices for climate change-informed conservation of the species. The three decades since the Karner blue butterfly’s (Lycaeides [Plebejus] melissa samuelis Nabokov) listing as federally endangered in the United States have seen a diverse and dedicated research and management community coalesce around the species’ recovery. This geographically expansive conservation collaboration has broken new ground for threatened and endangered species recovery. Many Karner blue recovery areas are making steady progress towards recovery goals, but some are not. An extremely hot and dry 2012, perhaps aided by adverse longer-term climate trends such as declining snow cover, extirpated the Karner blue from Indiana Dunes National Park and the surrounding Indiana Dunes Karner Blue Butterfly Recovery Unit—the southernmost recovery unit and once host to one of the species’ largest populations—as well as from northwest Ohio. Because of the fundamental challenge that climate change represents to Karner blue butterfly recovery and of the general need for endangered species conservation plans to better address climate change, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service-led Karner Blue Butterfly Recovery Team tasked a subset of the team to: Explore the species’ climate change sensitivity and adaptive capacity, review ongoing and projected climate change across the Karner blue range and associated uncertainties, and develop and suggest best practices concerning long-term adaptation strategies. Consistent with that mandate, this report synthesizes what is known about Karner blue climate change vulnerability and applies current thinking in climate change adaptation to help foster strategic, long-term, climate change-informed Karner blue recovery and conservation. It develops and explores a range of potential climate change-informed butterfly- and habitat-stewardship responses, using the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework to foster a broad range of approaches, and provides guidance regarding how they may be pursued. The report also provides suggestions for improving the climate change-exposure component of Karner blue vulnerability assessment.

Natural Resource Report↗

Dams, floodplain land use, and riparian forest conservation in the semiarid Upper Colorado River Basin, USA

Land and water resource development can independently eliminate riparian plant communities, including Fremont cottonwood forest (CF), a major contributor to ecosystem structure and functioning in semiarid portions of the American Southwest. We tested whether floodplain development was linked to river regulation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) by relating the extent of five developed land-cover categories as well as CF and other natural vegetation to catchment reservoir capacity, changes in total annual and annual peak discharge, and overall level of mainstem hydrologic alteration (small, moderate, or large) in 26 fourth-order subbasins. We also asked whether CF appeared to be in jeopardy at a regional level. We classified 51% of the 57,000 ha of alluvial floodplain examined along >2600 km of mainstem rivers as CF and 36% as developed. The proportion developed was unrelated to the level of mainstem hydrologic alteration. The proportion classified as CF was also independent of the level of hydrologic alteration, a result we attribute to confounding effects from development, the presence of time lags, and contrasting effects from flow alteration in different subbasins. Most CF (68% by area) had a sparse canopy (???5% cover), and stands with >50% canopy cover occupied <1% of the floodplain in 15 subbasins. We suggest that CF extent in the UCRB will decline markedly in the future, when the old trees on floodplains now disconnected from the river die and large areas change from CF to non-CF categories. Attention at a basinwide scale to the multiple factors affecting cottonwood patch dynamics is needed to assure conservation of these riparian forests. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Environmental Management↗

Using microbial source tracking to identify fecal contamination sources in Patchogue and Bellport Bays on Long Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey worked in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to assess the potential sources of fecal contamination entering Patchogue and Bellport Bays, two embayments on the south shore of Suffolk County, Long Island, New York. Water samples are routinely collected by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in the bays and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, an indicator of fecal contamination, to determine the need for closure of shellfish beds for harvest and consumption. Fecal coliform and other bacteria are an indicator of the potential presence of pathogenic (disease-causing) bacteria. However, indicator bacteria alone cannot determine the biological or geographical sources of contamination; therefore, microbial source tracking was implemented to determine various biological sources of contamination. In addition, information such as the location, weather and season, and surrounding land use where a sample was collected help determine the geographical source and conveyance of land-based water to the embayment. Analysis revealed that the most substantial source of fecal contamination to Patchogue and Bellport Bays was discharge from sites draining ponds and wetlands into the rivers and tributaries sampled, particularly during the summer months. Fecal coliform bacteria at sites where ponds and wetlands drain are increased by stormwater runoff, which is another substantial source of fecal contamination. Overall, canine- and waterfowl-associated bacterial contributions were prevalent in source samples in both bays. Human-associated markers were present in surface-water source samples and completely absent in receptor samples in Patchogue Bay. The Fireplace Neck receptor site in Bellport Bay had a human-associated marker present in the summer wet sample only. Human markers were detected at the sample site downstream from the Patchogue wastewater treatment plant but were associated with low fecal coliform concentrations, indicating that the wastewater treatment plant is not a likely source of fecal contamination to Patchogue Bay. The lack of human-associated marker detections within Patchogue and Bellport Bays in summer source samples coupled with low to no detections of fecal coliform, especially where small marinas are present in creeks and tributaries, suggest that boats do not substantially contribute fecal coliform bacteria to the bays. There was little evidence of groundwater-contributing fecal bacteria by direct discharge from the subsurface. Further, the sandy sediment alongside Patchogue and Bellport Bays is unlikely to contribute fecal coliform bacteria from the test host organisms when resuspended in the water column. A classification scheme was developed to convey the degree of fecal contamination to stakeholders and resource managers. Based on this classification scheme, the Corey Creek Near Middle Road, Patchogue River Near Division Street, and Swan River Mouth sampling sites were identified as locations that contribute substantial fecal contamination to Patchogue Bay. In Bellport Bay, the Culvert at Beaverdam Creek site was identified as the location contributing the most substantial fecal contamination.

New York↗

Riparian zones as havens for exotic plant species in the central grasslands

In the Central Grasslands of the United States, we hypothesized that riparian zones high in soil fertility would contain more exotic plant species than upland areas of low soil fertility. Our alternate hypothesis was that riparian zones high in native plant species richness and cover would monopolize available resources and resist invasion by exotic species. We gathered nested-scale vegetation data from 40 1 m2subplots (nested in four 1000 m2 plots) in both riparian and upland sites at four study areas in Colorado, Wyoming, and South Dakota (a total of 320 1 m2subplots and 32 1000 m2 plots). At the 1 m2 scale, mean foliar cover of native species was significantly greater (P < 0.001) in riparian zones (36.6% ?? 1.7%) compared to upland sites (28.7% ?? 1.5%), but at this small scale there were no consistent patterns of native and exotic species richness among the four management areas. Mean exotic species cover was slightly higher in upland sites compared to riparian sites (9.0% ?? 3.8% versus 8.2% ?? 3.0% cover). However, mean exotic species richness and cover were greater in the riparian zones than upland sites in three of four management areas. At the 1000 m2 scale, mean exotic species richness was also significantly greater (P < 0.05) in riparian zones (7.8 ?? 1.0 species) compared to upland sites (4.8 ?? 1.0 species) despite the heavy invasion of one upland site. For all 32 plots combined, 21% of the variance in exotic species richness was explained by positive relationships with soil % silt (t = 1.7, P = 0.09) and total foliar cover (t = 2.4, P = 0.02). Likewise, 26% of the variance in exotic species cover (log10 cover) was explained by positive relationships with soil % silt (t = 2.3, P = 0.03) and total plant species richness (t = 2.4, P = 0.02). At landscape scales (four 1000 m2 plots per type combined), total foliar cover was significantly and positively correlated with exotic species richness (r = 0.73, P < 0.05) and cover (r = 0.74, P < 0.05). Exotic species cover (log10 cover) was positively correlated with log10% N in the soil (r = 0.61, P = 0.11) at landscape scales. On average, we found that 85% (??5%) of the total number of exotic species in the sampling plots of a given management area could be found in riparian zones, while only 50% (??8%) were found in upland plots. We conclude that: (1 species-rich and productive riparian zones are particularly invasible in grassland ecosystems; and (2) riparian zones may act as havens, corridors, and sources of exotic plant invasions for upland sites and pose a significant challenge to land managers and conservation biologists.

Plant Ecology↗

Specific Conductance and Dissolved-Solids Characteristics for the Green River and Muddy Creek, Wyoming, Water Years 1999-2008

Southwestern Wyoming is an area of diverse scenery, wildlife, and natural resources that is actively undergoing energy development. The U.S. Department of the Interior's Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative is a long-term science-based effort to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale, while facilitating responsible energy development through local collaboration and partnerships. Water-quality monitoring has been conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Green River near Green River, Wyoming, and Muddy Creek near Baggs, Wyoming. This monitoring, which is being conducted in cooperation with State and other Federal agencies and as part of the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative, is in response to concerns about potentially increased dissolved solids in the Colorado River Basin as a result of energy development. Because of the need to provide real-time dissolved-solids concentrations for the Green River and Muddy Creek on the World Wide Web, the U.S. Geological Survey developed regression equations to estimate dissolved-solids concentrations on the basis of continuous specific conductance using relations between measured specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations. Specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations were less varied and generally lower for the Green River than for Muddy Creek. The median dissolved-solids concentration for the site on the Green River was 318 milligrams per liter, and the median concentration for the site on Muddy Creek was 943 milligrams per liter. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 187 to 594 milligrams per liter in samples collected from the Green River during water years 1999-2008. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 293 to 2,485 milligrams per liter in samples collected from Muddy Creek during water years 2006-08. The differences in dissolved-solids concentrations in samples collected from the Green River compared to samples collected from Muddy Creek reflect the different basin characteristics. Relations between specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations were statistically significant for the Green River (p-value less than 0.001) and Muddy Creek (p-value less than 0.001); therefore, specific conductance can be used to estimate dissolved-solids concentrations. Using continuous specific conductance values to estimate dissolved solids in real-time on the World Wide Web increases the amount and improves the timeliness of data available to water managers for assessing dissolved-solids concentrations in the Colorado River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Trends in suspended-sediment concentration at selected stream sites in Kansas, 1970–2002

Knowledge of erosion, transport, and deposition of sediment relative to streams and impoundments is important to those involved directly or indirectly in the development and management of water resources. Monitoring the quantity of sediment in streams and impoundments is important because: (1) sediment may degrade the water quality of streams for such uses as municipal water supply, (2) sediment is detrimental to the health of some species of aquatic animals and plants, and (3) accumulation of sediment in water-supply impoundments decreases the amount of storage and, therefore, water available for users. One of the objectives of the Kansas Water Plan is to reduce the amount of sediment in Kansas streams by 2010. During the last 30 years, millions of dollars have been spent in Kansas watersheds to reduce sediment transport to streams. Because the last evaluation of trends in suspended-sediment concentrations in Kansas was completed in 1985, 14 sediment sampling sites that represent 10 of the 12 major river basins in Kansas were reestablished in 2000. The purpose of this report is to present the results of time-trend analyses at the reestablished sediment data-collection sites for the period of about 1970–2002 and to evaluate changes in the watersheds that may explain the trends. Time-trend tests for 13 of 14 sediment sampling sites in Kansas for the period from about 1970 to 2002 indicated that 3 of the 13 sites tested had statistically significant decreasing suspended-sediment concentrations; however, only 2 sites, Walnut River at Winfield and Elk River at Elk Falls, had trends that were statistically significant at the 0.05 probability level. Increasing suspended-sediment concentrations were indicated at three sites although none were statistically significant at the 0.05 probability level. Samples from five of the six sampling sites located upstream from reservoirs indicated decreasing suspended-sediment concentrations. Watershed impoundments located in the respective river basins may contribute to the decreasing suspended-sediment trends exhibited at most of the sampling sites because the impoundments are designed to trap sediment. Both sites that exhibited statistically significant decreasing suspended-sediment concentrations have a large number of watershed impoundments located in their respective drainage basins. The relation between percentage of the watershed affected by impoundments and trend in suspended-sediment concentration for 11 sites indicated that, as the number of impoundments in the watershed increases, suspended-sediment concentration decreases. Other conservation practices, such as terracing of farm fields and contour farming, also may contribute to the reduced suspended-sediment concentrations if their use has increased during the period of analysis. Regression models were developed for 13 of 14 sediment sampling sites in Kansas and can be used to estimate suspended-sediment concentration if the range in stream discharge for which they were developed is not exceeded and if time trends in suspended-sediment concentrations are not significant. For those sites that had a statistically significant trend in suspended-sediment concentration, a second regression model was developed using samples collected during 2000–02. Past and current studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that regression models can be developed between in-stream measurements of turbidity and laboratory-analyzed sediment samples. Regression models were developed for the relations between discharge and suspended-sediment concentration and turbidity and suspended-sediment concentration for 10 sediment sampling sites using samples collected during 2000–02.

Kansas↗

Survey effort and targeted landbird community metrics at Indiana lowland forest restoration sites

Many sampling and analytical methods can estimate the abundance, distributions, and diversity of birds and other wildlife. However, challenges with sample size and analytical capacity can make these methods difficult to implement for resource-limited monitoring programs. To apprise efficient and attainable sampling designs for landbird monitoring programs with limited observational data, we used breeding season bird point survey data collected in 2016 at four forest restoration sites in Indiana, USA. We evaluated three subsets of observed species richness, total possibly breeding landbirds, Partners in Flight Regional Conservation Concern (PIF RCC) landbirds, and interior forest specialists (IFSs). Simulated surveys based on field data were used to conduct Bayesian Michaelis–Menten curve analyses estimating observed species as a function of sampling effort. On comparing simulated survey sets with multiple habitat types versus those with one habitat, we found that those with multiple habitat types had estimated 39%–83% greater observed PIF RCC species richness and required 41%–55% fewer visits per point to observe an equivalent proportion of PIF RCC species. Even with multiple habitats in a survey set, the number of visits per point required to detect 50% of observable species was 30% higher for PIF RCC species than for total breeding landbird species. Low detection rates of IFS species at two field sites made precise estimation of required effort to observe these species difficult. However, qualitatively, we found that only sites containing mature forest fragments had detections of several bird species designated as high-confidence IFS species. Our results suggest that deriving specialized species diversity metrics from point survey data can add value when interpreting those data. Additionally, designing studies to collect these metrics may require explicitly planning to visit multiple habitat types at a monitoring site and increasing the number of visits per survey point.

Indiana↗

Acceptability of residential development in a regional landscape: Potential effects on wildlife occupancy patterns

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses may pose the single greatest human threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Continued human growth and development over the next century will further exacerbate these effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Natural resource managers are tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, yet often have little say in land use decisions. Generally speaking, decision makers could benefit from an understanding of what different regulations mean in terms of wildlife distribution. In a previous paper ( Bettigole et al., 2013 ), we surveyed town residents throughout Vermont to measure how respondents feel about a range of development levels within their town boundaries. We estimated the &ldquo;social carrying capacity for development&rdquo; &ndash; or SK d &ndash; for 251 towns in Vermont. SK d provides an estimate of the level of developed land cover classes that town residents deem &ldquo;acceptable&rdquo; within their town boundaries. In this paper, we design a framework for linking the town-specific SK d estimates with the wildlife distribution patterns for three wide-ranging mammalian species: American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), fisher ( Martes pennanti ), and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). We simulated landscape conditions at SK d for each town in Vermont, and then used existing occupancy models for the three target species to spatially map and compare occupancy rates in the baseline year 2000 with occupancy rates at SK d . With nearly 90% of Vermont towns willing to increase developed landcover classes within town boundaries compared to baseline levels, significant state-wide changes in occupancy rates were predicted for all three focal species. Average occupancy rates declined by &minus;15.9% and &minus;3.1% for black bear and bobcats, respectively. Average occupancy rates for fisher increased by 9.0%. This study provides a method for linking development standards within a town with wildlife occurrence. Across towns, the methodology spatially identifies areas that may be at risk of future development, as well as identifying areas where wildlife distribution patterns may face future change as a result of increased human population growth and development.

Biological Conservation↗

Both Landsat- and LiDAR-derived measures predict forest bee response to large-scale wildfire

Large-scale disturbances such as wildfire can have profound impacts on the composition, structure, and functioning of ecosystems. Bees are critical pollinators in natural settings and often respond positively to wildfires, particularly in forests where wildfire leads to more open conditions and increased floral resources. The use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) provides opportunities for quantifying habitat features across large spatial scales and is increasingly available to scientists and land managers for post-fire habitat assessment. We evaluated the extent to which LiDAR-derived forest structure measurements can predict forest bee communities after a large, mixed-severity fire. We hypothesized that LiDAR measurements linked to post-fire forest structure would improve our ability to predict bee abundance and species richness when compared to satellite-based maps of burn severity. To test this hypothesis, we sampled wild bee communities within the Douglas Fire Complex in southwestern Oregon, USA. We then used LiDAR and Landsat data to quantify forest structure and burn severity, respectively, across bee sampling locations. We found that the LiDAR forest structure model was the best predictor of abundance, whereas the Landsat burn severity model had better predictive ability for species richness. Furthermore, the Landsat burn severity model was better at predicting the presence and species richness of bumble bees (Bombus spp.), an ecologically distinct and economically important group within the Pacific Northwest. We posit that the divergent responses of the two modeling approaches are due to distinct responses by bee taxa to variation in forest structure as mediated by wildfire, with bumble bees in particular depending on closed-canopy forest for some portions of their life cycle. Our study demonstrates that LiDAR data can provide information regarding the drivers of bee abundance in post-wildfire conifer forest, and that both remote sensing approaches are useful for predicting components of wild bee diversity after large-scale wildfire.

Oregon↗

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI&rsquo;s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI&rsquo;s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists&rsquo; League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program&rsquo;s development and success. The value of ARMI&rsquo;s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI&rsquo;s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI&rsquo;s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Analysis and simulation of water-level, specific conductance, and total phosphorus dynamics of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, 1995-2006

The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was established in 1951 through a license agreement between the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as part of the Migratory Bird Conservation Act. Under the license agreement, the State of Florida owns the land of the Refuge and the USFWS manages the land. Fifty-seven miles of levees and borrow canals surround the Refuge. Water in the canals surrounding the marsh is controlled by inflows and outflows through control structures. The transport of canal water with higher specific conductance and nutrient concentrations to the interior marsh has the potential to alter critical ecosystem functions of the marsh. Data-mining techniques were applied to 12 years (1995-2006) of historical data to systematically synthesize and analyze the dataset to enhance the understanding of the hydrology and water quality of the Refuge. From the analysis, empirical models, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were developed to answer critical questions related to the relative effects of controlled releases, precipitation, and meteorological forcing on water levels, specific conductance, and phosphorous concentrations of the interior marsh. Data mining is a powerful tool for converting large databases into information to solve complex problems resulting from large numbers of explanatory variables or poorly understood process physics. For the application of the linear regression and ANN models to the Refuge, data-mining methods were applied to maximize the information content in the raw data. Signal processing techniques used in the data analysis and model development included signal decomposition, digital filtering, time derivatives, time delays, and running averages. Inputs to the empirical models included time series, or signals, of inflows and outflows from the control structures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For a complex hydrologic system like the Refuge, the statistical accuracy of the models and predictive capability were good. The water-level models have coefficient of determination (R 2 values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98. The R 2 for the specific conductance model is 0.82, and the R2 for the total phosphorus model is 0.51. The accuracy of the models was attributable to the quantity and quality of the available data. To make the models directly available to all stakeholders, an easy-to-use decision support system (DSS) called the Loxahatchee Artificial Neural Network Model (LOXANN) DSS was developed as a spreadsheet application that integrates the historical database, linear regression and ANN models, model controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The LOXANN DSS allows Refuge managers and other users to easily execute the water level, specific conductance, and phosphorous models to evaluate various water-resource management scenarios. The user is able to choose from three options in setting the control-structure flows: as a percentage of historical flow, as a constant flow, or as a user-defined hydrograph. Output from the LOXANN DSS includes tabular time series of predictions of the measured data and predictions of the user-specified conditions. A three-dimensional visualization routine also was developed that displays longitudinal specific conductance conditions. Two scenarios were simulated with the LOXANN DSS. One scenario increased the historical flows at four control structures by 40 percent. The second scenario used a user-defined hydrograph to set the outflow from the Refuge to the weekly average inflow to the Refuge delayed by 2 days. Both scenarios decreased the potential of canal water intruding into the marsh by decreasing the slope of the water level between the canals and the marsh.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ultra‐high‐resolution mapping of biocrusts with Unmanned Aerial Systems

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) occur in drylands globally where they support ecosystem functioning by increasing soil stability, reducing dust emissions and modifying soil resource availability (e.g. water, nutrients). Determining biocrust condition and extent across landscapes continues to present considerable challenges to scientists and land managers. Biocrusts grow in patches, cover vast expanses of rugged terrain and are vulnerable to physical disturbance associated with ground‐based mapping techniques. As such, remote sensing offers promising opportunities to map and monitor biocrusts. While satellite‐based remote sensing has been used to detect biocrusts at relatively large spatial scales, few studies have used high‐resolution imagery from Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) to map fine‐scale patterns of biocrusts. We collected sub‐centimeter, true color 3‐band imagery at 10 plots in sagebrush and pinyon‐juniper woodland communities in a semiarid ecosystem in the southwestern US and used object‐based image analysis (OBIA) to segment and classify the imagery into maps of light and dark biocrusts, bare soil, rock and various vegetation covers. We used field data to validate the classifications and assessed the spatial distribution and configuration of different classes using fragmentation metrics. Map accuracies ranged from 46 to 77% (average 65%) and were higher in pinyon‐juniper (average 70%) versus sagebrush (average 60%) plots. Biocrust classes showed generally high accuracies at both pinyon‐juniper plots (average dark crust = 70%; light crust = 80%) and sagebrush plots (average dark crust = 69%; light crust = 77%). Point cloud density, sun elevation and spectral confusion between vegetation cover explained some differences in accuracy across plots. Spatial analyses of classified maps showed that biocrust patches in pinyon‐juniper plots were generally larger, more aggregated and contiguous than in sagebrush plots. Pinyon‐juniper plots also had greater patch richness and a lower Shannon evenness index than sagebrush plots, suggesting greater soil cover heterogeneity in this plant community type.

Utah↗