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USGS2016

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 ). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr −1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO 2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2017

Carbonate buffering and metabolic controls on carbon dioxide in rivers

Multiple processes support the significant efflux of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from rivers and streams. Attribution of CO 2 oversaturation will lead to better quantification of the freshwater carbon cycle and provide insights into the net cycling of nutrients and pollutants. CO 2 production is closely related to O 2 consumption because of the metabolic linkage of these gases. However, this relationship can be weakened due to dissolved inorganic carbon inputs from groundwater, carbonate buffering, calcification, and anaerobic metabolism. CO 2 and O 2 concentrations and other water quality parameters were analyzed in two data sets: a synoptic field study and nationwide water quality monitoring data. CO 2 and O 2 concentrations were strongly negatively correlated in both data sets ( ρ = −0.67 and ρ = −0.63, respectively), although the correlations were weaker in high-alkalinity environments. In nearly all samples, the molar oversaturation of CO 2 was a larger magnitude than molar O 2 undersaturation. We used a dynamically coupled O 2 CO 2 model to show that lags in CO 2 air-water equilibration are a likely cause of this phenomenon. Lags in CO 2 equilibration also impart landscape-scale differences in the behavior of CO 2 between high- and low-alkalinity watersheds. Although the concept of carbonate buffering and how it creates lags in CO 2 equilibration with the atmosphere is well understood, it has not been sufficiently integrated into our understanding of CO 2 dynamics in freshwaters. We argue that the consideration of carbonate equilibria and its effects on CO 2 dynamics are primary steps in understanding the sources and magnitude of CO 2 oversaturation in rivers and streams.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2016

Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding

The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Ephemerality of discrete methane vents in lake sediments

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas whose emission from sediments in inland waters and shallow oceans may both contribute to global warming and be exacerbated by it. The fraction of methane emitted by sediments that bypasses dissolution in the water column and reaches the atmosphere as bubbles depends on the mode and spatiotemporal characteristics of venting from the sediments. Earlier studies have concluded that hot spots—persistent, high-flux vents—dominate the regional ebullitive flux from submerged sediments. Here the spatial structure, persistence, and variability in the intensity of methane venting are analyzed using a high-resolution multibeam sonar record acquired at the bottom of a lake during multiple deployments over a 9 month period. We confirm that ebullition is strongly episodic, with distinct regimes of high flux and low flux largely controlled by changes in hydrostatic pressure. Our analysis shows that the spatial pattern of ebullition becomes homogeneous at the sonar's resolution over time scales of hours (for high-flux periods) or days (for low-flux periods), demonstrating that vents are ephemeral rather than persistent, and suggesting that long-term, lake-wide ebullition dynamics may be modeled without resolving the fine-scale spatial structure of venting.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Regional-scale controls on dissolved nitrous oxide in the Upper Mississippi River

The U.S. Corn Belt is one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world and is drained by the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), which forms one of the largest drainage basins in the U.S. While the effects of agricultural nitrate (NO 3 - ) on water quality in the UMR have been well documented, its impact on the production of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) has not been reported. Using a novel equilibration technique, we present the largest data set of freshwater dissolved N 2 O concentrations (0.7 to 6 times saturation) and examine the controls on its variability over a 350 km reach of the UMR. Driven by a supersaturated water column, the UMR was an important atmospheric N 2 O source (+68 mg N 2 ONm -2 yr -1 ) that varies nonlinearly with the NO 3 - concentration. Our analyses indicated that a projected doubling of the NO 3 - concentration by 2050 would cause dissolved N 2 O concentrations and emissions to increase by about 40%.

Upper Mississippi River↗

USGS2016

Dendritic network models: Improving isoscapes and quantifying influence of landscape and in-stream processes on strontium isotopes in rivers

A critical challenge for the Earth sciences is to trace the transport and flux of matter within and among aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric systems. Robust descriptions of isotopic patterns across space and time, called “isoscapes,” form the basis of a rapidly growing and wide-ranging body of research aimed at quantifying connectivity within and among Earth's systems. However, isoscapes of rivers have been limited by conventional Euclidean approaches in geostatistics and the lack of a quantitative framework to apportion the influence of processes driven by landscape features versus in-stream phenomena. Here we demonstrate how dendritic network models substantially improve the accuracy of isoscapes of strontium isotopes and partition the influence of hydrologic transport versus local geologic features on strontium isotope ratios in a large Alaska river. This work illustrates the analytical power of dendritic network models for the field of isotope biogeochemistry, particularly for provenance studies of modern and ancient animals.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Processes of multibathyal aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean

During 3 years of study (2010–2012), the western Arctic Ocean was found to have unique aragonite saturation profiles with up to three distinct aragonite undersaturation zones. This complexity is produced as inflow of Atlantic-derived and Pacific-derived water masses mix with Arctic-derived waters, which are further modified by physiochemical and biological processes. The shallowest aragonite undersaturation zone, from the surface to ∼30 m depth is characterized by relatively low alkalinity and other dissolved ions. Besides local influence of biological processes on aragonite undersaturation of shallow coastal waters, the nature of this zone is consistent with dilution by sea-ice melt and invasion of anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere. A second undersaturated zone at ∼90–220 m depth (salinity ∼31.8–35.4) occurs within the Arctic Halocline and is characterized by elevated p CO 2 and nutrients. The nature of this horizon is consistent with remineralization of organic matter on shallow continental shelves bordering the Canada Basin and the input of the nutrients and CO 2 entrained by currents from the Pacific Inlet. Finally, the deepest aragonite undersaturation zone is at greater than 2000 m depth and is controlled by similar processes as deep aragonite saturation horizons in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The comparatively shallow depth of this deepest aragonite saturation horizon in the Arctic is maintained by relatively low temperatures, and stable chemical composition. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the distribution of these aragonite undersaturation zones, and the time scales over which they operate will be crucial to refine predictive models.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans↗

USGS2016

Barrier island breach evolution: Alongshore transport and bay-ocean pressure gradient interactions

Physical processes controlling repeated openings and closures of a barrier island breach between a bay and the open ocean are studied using aerial photographs and atmospheric and hydrodynamic observations. The breach site is located on Pea Island along the Outer Banks, separating Pamlico Sound from the Atlantic Ocean. Wind direction was a major control on the pressure gradients between the bay and the ocean to drive flows that initiate or maintain the breach opening. Alongshore sediment flux was found to be a major contributor to breach closure. During the analysis period from 2011 to 2016, three hurricanes had major impacts on the breach. First, Hurricane Irene opened the breach with wind-driven flow from bay to ocean in August 2011. Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 quadrupled the channel width from pressure gradient flows due to water levels that were first higher on the ocean side and then higher on the bay side. The breach closed sometime in Spring 2013, most likely due to an event associated with strong alongshore sediment flux but minimal ocean-bay pressure gradients. Then, in July 2014, Hurricane Arthur briefly opened the breach again from the bay side, in a similar fashion to Irene. In summary, opening and closure of breaches are shown to follow a dynamic and episodic balance between along-channel pressure gradient driven flows and alongshore sediment fluxes.

Pea Island↗

USGS2017

Physical response of a back-barrier estuary to a post-tropical cyclone

This paper presents a modeling investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport response of Chincoteague Bay (VA/MD, USA) to Hurricane Sandy using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport (COAWST) modeling system. Several simulation scenarios with different combinations of remote and local forces were conducted to identify the dominant physical processes. While 80% of the water level increase in the bay was due to coastal sea level at the peak of the storm, a rich spatial and temporal variability in water surface slope was induced by local winds and waves. Local wind increased vertical mixing, horizontal exchanges, and flushing through the inlets. Remote waves (swell) enhanced southward flow through wave setup gradients between the inlets, and increased locally generated wave heights. Locally generated waves had a negligible effect on water level but reduced the residual flow up to 70% due to enhanced apparent roughness and breaking-induced forces. Locally generated waves dominated bed shear stress and sediment resuspension in the bay. Sediment transport patterns mirrored the interior coastline shape and generated deposition on inundated areas. The bay served as a source of fine sediment to the inner shelf, and the ocean-facing barrier island accumulated sand from landward-directed overwash. Despite the intensity of the storm forcing, the bathymetric changes in the bay were on the order of centimeters. This work demonstrates the spectrum of responses to storm forcing, and highlights the importance of local and remote processes on back-barrier estuarine function.

Chincoteague Bay↗

USGS2016

Geologic history of Martian regolith breccia Northwest Africa 7034: Evidence for hydrothermal activity and lithologic diversity in the Martian crust

The timing and mode of deposition for Martian regolith breccia Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034 were determined by combining petrography, shape analysis, and thermochronology. NWA 7034 is composed of igneous, impact, and brecciated clasts within a thermally annealed submicron matrix of pulverized crustal rocks and devitrified impact/volcanic glass. The brecciated clasts are likely lithified portions of Martian regolith with some evidence of past hydrothermal activity. Represented lithologies are primarily ancient crustal materials with crystallization ages as old as 4.4 Ga. One ancient zircon was hosted by an alkali-rich basalt clast, confirming that alkalic volcanism occurred on Mars very early. NWA 7034 is composed of fragmented particles that do not exhibit evidence of having undergone bed load transport by wind or water. The clast size distribution is similar to terrestrial pyroclastic deposits. We infer that the clasts were deposited by atmospheric rainout subsequent to a pyroclastic eruption(s) and/or impact event(s), although the ancient ages of igneous components favor mobilization by impact(s). Despite ancient components, the breccia has undergone a single pervasive thermal event at 500–800°C, evident by groundmass texture and concordance of ~1.5 Ga dates for bulk rock K-Ar, U-Pb in apatite, and U-Pb in metamict zircons. The 1.5 Ga age is likely a thermal event that coincides with rainout/breccia lithification. We infer that the episodic process of regolith lithification dominated sedimentary processes during the Amazonian Epoch. The absence of pre-Amazonian high-temperature metamorphic events recorded in ancient zircons indicates source domains of static southern highland crust punctuated by episodic impact modification.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2017

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m −2 yr −1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m −2 yr −1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m −2 yr −1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max ). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C ( V c max_25 ), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2016

Interactions among vegetation, climate, and herbivory control greenhouse gas fluxes in a subarctic coastal wetland

High-latitude ecosystems are experiencing the most rapid climate changes globally, and in many areas these changes are concurrent with shifts in patterns of herbivory. Individually, climate and herbivory are known to influence biosphere-atmosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange; however, the interactive effects of climate and herbivory in driving GHG fluxes have been poorly quantified, especially in coastal systems that support large populations of migratory waterfowl. We investigated the magnitude and the climatic and physical controls of GHG exchange within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska across four distinct vegetation communities formed by herbivory and local microtopography. Net CO 2 flux was greatest in the ungrazed Carex meadow community (3.97 ± 0.58 [SE] µmol CO 2 m −2 s −1 ), but CH 4 flux was greatest in the grazed community (14.00 ± 6.56 nmol CH 4 m −2 s −1 ). The grazed community is also the only vegetation type where CH 4 was a larger contributor than CO 2 to overall GHG forcing. We found that vegetation community was an important predictor of CO 2 and CH 4 exchange, demonstrating that variation in regional gas exchange is best explained when the effect of grazing, determined by the difference between grazed and ungrazed communities, is included. Further, we identified an interaction between temperature and vegetation community, indicating that grazed regions could experience the greatest increases in CH 4 emissions with warming. These results suggest that future GHG fluxes could be influenced by both climate and by changes in herbivore population dynamics that expand or contract the vegetation community most responsive to future temperature change.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Steady state fractionation of heavy noble gas isotopes in a deep unsaturated zone

To explore steady state fractionation processes in the unsaturated zone (UZ), we measured argon, krypton, and xenon isotope ratios throughout a ∼110 m deep UZ at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) in Nevada, USA. Prior work has suggested that gravitational settling should create a nearly linear increase in heavy-to-light isotope ratios toward the bottom of stagnant air columns in porous media. Our high-precision measurements revealed a binary mixture between (1) expected steady state isotopic compositions and (2) unfractionated atmospheric air. We hypothesize that the presence of an unsealed pipe connecting the surface to the water table allowed for direct inflow of surface air in response to extensive UZ gas sampling prior to our first (2015) measurements. Observed isotopic resettling in deep UZ samples collected a year later, after sealing the pipe, supports this interpretation. Data and modeling each suggest that the strong influence of gravitational settling and weaker influences of thermal diffusion and fluxes of CO 2 and water vapor accurately describe steady state isotopic fractionation of argon, krypton, and xenon within the UZ. The data confirm that heavy noble gas isotopes are sensitive indicators of UZ depth. Based on this finding, we outline a potential inverse approach to quantify past water table depths from noble gas isotope measurements in paleogroundwater, after accounting for fractionation during dissolution of UZ air and bubbles.

Nevada↗

USGS2018

Permafrost stores a globally significant amount of mercury

Changing climate in northern regions is causing permafrost to thaw with major implications for the global mercury (Hg) cycle. We estimated Hg in permafrost regions based on in situ measurements of sediment total mercury (STHg), soil organic carbon (SOC), and the Hg to carbon ratio (R HgC ) combined with maps of soil carbon. We measured a median STHg of 43 ± 30 ng Hg g soil −1 and a median R HgC of 1.6 ± 0.9 μg Hg g C −1 , consistent with published results of STHg for tundra soils and 11,000 measurements from 4,926 temperate, nonpermafrost sites in North America and Eurasia. We estimate that the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions contain 1,656 ± 962 Gg Hg, of which 793 ± 461 Gg Hg is frozen in permafrost. Permafrost soils store nearly twice as much Hg as all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, and this Hg is vulnerable to release as permafrost thaws over the next century. Existing estimates greatly underestimate Hg in permafrost soils, indicating a need to reevaluate the role of the Arctic regions in the global Hg cycle.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2017

Vulnerability of coral reefs to bioerosion from land-based sources of pollution

Ocean acidification (OA), the gradual decline in ocean pH and [ ] caused by rising levels of atmospheric CO 2 , poses a significant threat to coral reef ecosystems, depressing rates of calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) production, and enhancing rates of bioerosion and dissolution. As ocean pH and [ ] decline globally, there is increasing emphasis on managing local stressors that can exacerbate the vulnerability of coral reefs to the effects of OA. We show that sustained, nutrient rich, lower pH submarine groundwater discharging onto nearshore coral reefs off west Maui lowers the pH of seawater and exposes corals to nitrate concentrations 50 times higher than ambient. Rates of coral calcification are substantially decreased, and rates of bioerosion are orders of magnitude higher than those observed in coral cores collected in the Pacific under equivalent low pH conditions but living in oligotrophic waters. Heavier coral nitrogen isotope (δ 15 N) values pinpoint not only site-specific eutrophication, but also a sewage nitrogen source enriched in 15 N. Our results show that eutrophication of reef seawater by land-based sources of pollution can magnify the effects of OA through nutrient driven-bioerosion. These conditions could contribute to the collapse of coastal coral reef ecosystems sooner than current projections predict based only on ocean acidification.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

Overcoming equifinality: Leveraging long time series for stream metabolism estimation

The foundational ecosystem processes of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) cannot be measured directly but can be modeled in aquatic ecosystems from subdaily patterns of oxygen (O 2 ) concentrations. Because rivers and streams constantly exchange O 2 with the atmosphere, models must either use empirical estimates of the gas exchange rate coefficient ( K 600 ) or solve for all three parameters (GPP, ER, and K 600 ) simultaneously. Empirical measurements of K 600 require substantial field work and can still be inaccurate. Three-parameter models have suffered from equifinality, where good fits to O 2 data are achieved by many different parameter values, some unrealistic. We developed a new three-parameter, multiday model that ensures similar values for K 600 among days with similar physical conditions (e.g., discharge). Our new model overcomes the equifinality problem by (1) flexibly relating K 600 to discharge while permitting moderate daily deviations and (2) avoiding the oft-violated assumption that residuals in O 2 predictions are uncorrelated. We implemented this hierarchical state-space model and several competitor models in an open-source R package, streamMetabolizer . We then tested the models against both simulated and field data. Our new model reduces error by as much as 70% in daily estimates of K 600 , GPP, and ER. Further, accuracy benefits of multiday data sets require as few as 3 days of data. This approach facilitates more accurate metabolism estimates for more streams and days, enabling researchers to better quantify carbon fluxes, compare streams by their metabolic regimes, and investigate controls on aquatic activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2018

Drivers of variability in public‐supply water use across the contiguous United States

This study explores the relationship between municipal water use and an array of climate, economic, behavioral, and policy variables across the contiguous U.S. The relationship is explored using Bayesian‐hierarchical regression models for over 2,500 counties, 18 covariates, and three higher‐level grouping variables. Additionally, a second analysis is included for 83 cities where water price and water conservation policy information is available. A hierarchical model using the nine climate regions (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) as the higher‐level groups results in the best out‐of‐sample performance, as estimated by the Widely Available Information Criterion, compared to counties grouped by urban continuum classification or primary economic activity. The regression coefficients indicate that the controls on water use are not uniform across the nation: e.g., counties in the Northeast and Northwest climate regions are more sensitive to social variables, whereas counties in the Southwest and East North Central climate regions are more sensitive to environmental variables. For the national city‐level model, it appears that arid cities with a high cost of living and relatively low water bills sell more water per customer, but as with the county‐level model, the effect of each variable depends heavily on where a city is located.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2018

Regional variability of nitrate fluxes in the unsaturated zone and groundwater, Wisconsin, USA

Process-based modeling of regional NO3− fluxes to groundwater is critical for understanding and managing water quality, but the complexity of NO3− reactive transport processes make implementation a challenge. This study introduces a regional vertical flux method (VFM) for efficient estimation of reactive transport of NO3− in the vadose zone and groundwater. The regional VFM was applied to 443 well samples in central-eastern Wisconsin. Chemical measurements included O2, NO3−, N2 from denitrification, and atmospheric tracers of groundwater age including carbon-14, chlorofluorocarbons, tritium, and tritiogenic helium. VFM results were consistent with observed chemistry, and calibrated parameters were in-line with estimates from previous studies. Results indicated that (1) unsaturated zone travel times were a substantial portion of the transit time to wells and streams (2) since 1945 fractions of applied N leached to groundwater have increased for manure-N, possibly due to increased injection of liquid manure, and decreased for fertilizer-N, and (3) under current practices and conditions, approximately 60% of the shallow aquifer will eventually be affected by downward migration of NO3−, with denitrification protecting the remaining 40%. Recharge variability strongly affected the unsaturated zone lag times and the eventual depth of the NO3− front. Principal components regression demonstrated that VFM parameters and predictions were significantly correlated with hydrogeochemical landscape features. The diverse and sometimes conflicting aspects of N management (e.g. limiting N volatilization versus limiting N losses to groundwater) warrant continued development of large-scale holistic strategies to manage water quality and quantity.

Wisconsin↗