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A novel method for estimating pathogen presence, prevalence, load, and dynamics at multiple scales

The use of quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to monitor pathogens is common; however, quantitative frameworks that consider the observation process, dynamics in pathogen presence, and pathogen load are lacking. This can be problematic in the early stages of disease progression, where low level detections may be treated as ‘inconclusive’ and excluded from analyses. Alternatively, a framework that accounts for imperfect detection would provide more robust inferences. To better estimate pathogen dynamics, we developed a hierarchical multi-scale dynamic occupancy hurdle model (MS-DOHM). The model used data gathered during sampling for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) , the causative agent of white-nose syndrome, a fungal disease that has cause severe declines in several species of hibernating bats in North America. The model allowed us to estimate initial occupancy, colonization, persistence and prevalence of Pd at bat hibernacula. Additionally, utilizing the relationship between cycle threshold and pathogen load, we estimated pathogen detectability and modeled expected colony and bat pathogen loads. To assess the ability of MS-DOHM to estimate pathogen dynamics, we compared MS-DOHM’s results to those of a dynamic occupancy model and naïve detection/non-detection. MS-DOHM’s estimates of site-level pathogen presence were up to 11.9% higher than estimates from the dynamic occupancy model and 35.7% higher than naïve occupancy. Including prevalence and load in our modeling framework resulted in estimates of pathogen arrival that were two to three years earlier compared to the dynamic occupancy and naïve detection/non-detection, respectively. Compared to naïve values, MS-DOHM predicted greater pathogen loads on colonies; however, we found no difference between model estimates and naïve values of prevalence. While the model predicted no declines in site-level prevalence, there were instances where pathogen load decreased in colonies that had been Pd positive for longer periods of time. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for pathogen load and prevalence at multiple scales changes our understanding of Pd dynamics, potentially allowing earlier conservation intervention. Additionally, we found that accounting for pathogen load and prevalence within hibernacula and among individuals resulted in a better fitting model with greater predictive ability.

Scientific Reports↗

Ground-water conditions in the vicinity of Carlsbad, New Mexico

The area included in this investigation lies in Eddy County, New Mexico, largely between the foothills of the Guadalupe Mountains on the west and the Pecos River on the east, and extends from Carlsbad southward to Black River. The Pecos River drains the entire area, and in the growing season when water is diverted at Avalon Dam for irrigation its flow in this locality is maintained largely by the numerous springs emerging in the river channel north of Carlsbad. Carlsbad and vicinity depend on ground water fro a domestic water supply as the waters of the Pecos River are too highly mineralized for domestic use. About 1,120 acres of land was irrigation by ground water in the vicinity of Carlsbad in 1940. Valley fill, of Quaternary age, extends over most of the area, largely as a thin veneer, but it has a maximum known thickness of 256 feet. It is made up largely of clay with lenses of conglomerate, gravel, and sand. The Rustler formation, of upper Permian age, underlies the fills and is composed of gypsum and red beds with one persistent bed of limestone. The Salado formation, which is composed chiefly of halite (common salt), underlies the Rustler formation elsewhere buy it is absent over most of the area described in this paper. This Castile formations, which is predominantly anhydrite, underlies the Salado and overlies the Delaware Mountain group, of middle Permian age, which is deeply buried in most of the area. The upper part of the Delaware Mountain group grades into the Capitan and Carlsbad limestones to the north, east, and west, the latter being exposed near Carlsbad and in the foothills of the Guadalupe Mountain. The Carlsbad limestone in turn grades into the upper part of the Chalk Bluff formation. Ground water apparently moves eastward from the Guadalupe Mountains through the Carlsbad limestone to recharge the aquifers in the Delaware Mountain, Castile, and Salado units. In these formations the water soon becomes too highly mineralized for domestic or irrigation use. A large part of the water in the Carlsbad limestone emerges in the spring area north of Carlsbad, and a part of it moves into the valley fill in Dark Canyon Arroyo. The water in the fill of Dark Canyon Arroyo moves laterally into the limestone of the Rustier formation. The water moving eastward in the valley fill and Rustier limestone becomes progressively more mineralized and in the farmland area in the Carlsbad Irrigation Dstrict it is unfit for domestic use. In addition, highly mineralized water seeping from the farmlands and canals in the Carlsbad Irrigation District commingles with the water from the west, and the resulting mixture is undesirable even for watering stock, although if necessity it is much used for that purpose. Water occurs in channels of the Carlsbad limestone, and wells drilled into it generally obtain large yields id hard but potable water. The municipal supply of the city of Carlsbad is derived from 4 wells (1940) in the Carlsbad limestone. The aquifer has a high transmissibility in the vicinity of Carlsbad, as was shown by a test made on one of the wells owned by Southwestern Public Service Co. This well has a specific capacity of 275 gallons per minute per foot of drawdown. The present withdrawal of water from wells penetrating the aquifers in the Carlsbad limestone averages about 4 second-feet (about 2,600,00 gallons a day). The average flow emerging in the spring area in the Pacos River north of Carlsbad is about 60 second-feet (about 40 million gallons a day). It appears that about 12 second-feet of this flow (about 8 million gallons a day) comes from aquifers in the Carlsbad limestone and that the remainder represents leakage from Lake Avalon and the canal system. The valley fill is less permeable than the Carlsbad limestone but in some places sufficient yields are obtained for irrigation purposes. A test made on a well in the fill just south of Carlsbad showed the aquifer in that locality to have a transmissibility of about 60,000. Contamination of the household wells in West Carlsbad does not appear to be taking place at the present time although the juxtaposition of cesspools and outhouses on the one hand and poorly cased wells for domestic water supply on the other makes the situation dangerous.

New Mexico↗

Geologic map and cross sections of the Embudo Fault Zone in the Southern Taos Valley, Taos County, New Mexico

The southern Taos Valley encompasses the physiographic and geologic transition zone between the Picuris Mountains and the San Luis Basin of the Rio Grande rift. The Embudo fault zone is the rift transfer structure that has accommodated the kinematic disparities between the San Luis Basin and the Española Basin during Neogene rift extension. The eastern terminus of the transfer zone coincides with the intersection of four major fault zones (Embudo, Sangre de Cristo, Los Cordovas, and Picuris-Pecos), resulting in an area of extreme geologic and hydrogeologic complexities in both the basin-fill deposits and the bedrock. Although sections of the Embudo fault zone are locally exposed in the bedrock of the Picuris Mountains and in the late Cenozoic sedimentary units along the top of the Picuris piedmont, the full proportions of the fault zone have remained elusive due to a pervasive cover of Quaternary surficial deposits. We combined insights derived from the latest geologic mapping of the area with deep borehole data and high-resolution aeromagnetic and gravity models to develop a detailed stratigraphic/structural model of the rift basin in the southern Taos Valley area. The four fault systems in the study area overlap in various ways in time and space. Our geologic model states that the Picuris-Pecos fault system exists in the basement rocks (Picuris formation and older units) of the rift, where it is progressively down dropped and offset to the west by each Embudo fault strand between the Picuris Mountains and the Rio Pueblo de Taos. In this model, the Miranda graben exists in the subsurface as a series of offset basement blocks between the Ponce de Leon neighborhood and the Rio Pueblo de Taos. In the study area, the Embudo faults are pervasive structures between the Picuris Mountains and the Rio Pueblo de Taos, affecting all geologic units that are older than the Quaternary surficial deposits. The Los Cordovas faults are thought to represent the late Tertiary to Quaternary reactivation of the old and deeply buried Picuris-Pecos faults. If so, then the Los Cordovas structures may extend southward under the Picuris piedmont, where they form growth faults as they merge downward into the Picuris-Pecos bedrock faults. The exceptionally high density of cross-cutting faults in the study area has severely disrupted the stratigraphy of the Picuris formation and the Santa Fe Group. The Picuris formation exists at the surface in the Miranda and Rio Grande del Rancho grabens, and locally along the top of the Picuris piedmont. In the subsurface, it deepens rapidly from the mountain front into the rift basin. In a similar manner, the Tesuque and Chamita Formations are shallowly exposed close to the mountain front, but are down dropped into the basin along the Embudo faults. The Ojo Caliente Sandstone Member of the Tesuque Formation appears to be thickest in the northwestern study area, and thins toward the south and the east. In the study area, the Lama formation thins westward and southward. The Servilleta Basalt is generally thickest to the north and northwest, thins under the Picuris piedmont, and terminates along a major, linear, buried strand of the Embudo fault zone, demonstrating that the Servilleta flows were spatially and temporally related to Embudo fault activity.

New Mexico↗

The natural channel of Brandywine Creek, Pennsylvania

This study of the channel of Brandy wine Creek, Pennsylvania, consists of three parts. The first is an analysis of the changes which take place in the width, depth, velocity, slope of the water surface, suspended load, and roughness factor with changing discharge below the bankfull stage at each of several widely separated cross sections of the channel. Expressed as functions of the discharge, it is found that the variables behave systematically. In every section studied, as the discharge increases, the velocity increases to about the 0.6 power, depth to the 0.4, and load to the 2.0 power of the discharge. The roughness decreases to the 0.2 power of the discharge. The relative magnitudes and the direction of these variations are similar to those which have been observed in other rivers in the United States, primarily in the West. Some modifications of the hypotheses applicable to the western rivers are probably required because on Brandywine Creek the difference between the materials on the bed and in the banks is considerably greater than it is on most of the western rivers studied. In the second part of the paper the progressive changes of the same variables in the downstream direction with increasing discharge at a given frequency are described. Despite the disorderly appearance of the stream, it is found that the variables display a progressive, orderly change in the downstream direction when traced from the headwater tributaries through the trunk stream of Brandywine Creek. At a given frequency of flow, width increases with discharge to about the 0.5 power. Depth increases downstream somewhat less rapidly, while the slope and roughness both decrease in the downstream direction. Despite a decrease in the size of the material on the bed, both the mean velocity and the mean bed velocity increase downstream. The rates of change of these variables are in close accord with the changes observed on rivers flowing in alluvium and in stable irrigation canals. These relationships hold for all flows up to the bankfull stage. Analysis of the streamflow records indicates that the annual maximum discharge equals or exceeds the bankfull stage roughly once every 2 years. The regularity in the behavior of the variables with changing discharges both at-a-station and in the downstream direction and the similar rates of change of the variables on Brandywine Creek and in stable irrigation canals suggest the existence of a quasi-equilibrium in the channel of the creek. Part three of this study is concerned with this concept of equilibrium in streams. By analogy with canals and with several rivers in diverse regions of the United States it may be concluded that this quasi-equilibrium is closely related to the discharge, and to the concentration of the suspended load. The shape and longitudinal profile of the channel are determined by these two independent factors which operate within the limits set by the local geology. The latter determines the initial size, shape, and resistance of the material provided to the channel. The existence of a quasi-equilibrium among the variables studied suggests that most reaches on Brandywine Creek are at grade. This is true if the term "grade," when applied to natural rivers, is synonymous with quasi-equilibrium. The adjustability of the variables in the channel rather than the stability of any particular shape or longitudinal profile of the channel is emphasized when t

Pennsylvania↗

Spatial patterns and temporal trends in water quality in Idaho’s lower Boise River and its tributaries, 1994–2023

The lower Boise River in southwestern Idaho is a vital cultural, economic, and ecological resource, but some of its beneficial uses are impaired by excess algae, sediment, nutrients, and bacteria. In response, a variety of water quality improvement projects and regulations have been implemented in recent decades. A recent study showed that, from water years 2003 to 2021, concentrations of total phosphorus at the mouth of the Boise River near Parma decreased by 60 percent, indicating the success of the improvement projects and progress towards reaching the regulatory target. However, although the progress of the system as a whole towards reaching the total phosphorus target is well documented, quantifying contributions and trends in total phosphorus loading from individual tributaries and upstream mainstem locations is needed. Similarly, tributary contributions and trends of other constituents of concern are unknown or have not been evaluated in a decade. To evaluate the success of past water-quality improvement efforts and help prioritize future investments, this study characterized spatial and seasonal patterns in concentrations and loads of suspended sediment, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, Escherichia coli bacteria, and periphyton chlorophyll a (chl-a) at three mainstem and seven tributary sites of the lower Boise River during water years 2019–2023. For sites and constituents with adequate data, temporal trends over a 15-year and 30-year period were also evaluated. Recent (in other words, water years 2019–2023) concentrations and loads of suspended sediment and total phosphorus were typically greatest during the irrigation season and often exceeded total maximum daily load targets. However, concentrations and loads of suspended sediment, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate have decreased over the past 15 to 30 years at many sites. In contrast, concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate plus nitrite showed increasing trends at the Boise River near Parma, likely reflecting the effects of regional changes in agricultural practices in recent decades. Periphyton chl-a concentrations during October–November were highly likely increasing over the 30-year period at Boise River at Eckert, but were uncertain at Middleton and Parma. At Boise River at Middleton, periphyton chl-a concentrations exceeded the total maximum daily load target of 150 milligrams per square meter in 75 percent of samples during water years 2019–2023. Results therefore demonstrate that past watershed improvement efforts have been largely effective at reducing concentrations and loads of suspended sediment, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate in the lower Boise River watershed, but different strategies may be needed to reduce concentrations and loads of total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, Escherichia coli , and periphyton chl-a.

Idaho↗

Rapid Holocene deposition in the Mackenzie Trough and Barrow Canyon areas in the western Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean and terrestrial environment have recently been reported to be changing drastically, but it is unclear whether these changes are similar to natural variations in the past or how sudden and large the changes are compared to natural variations. This premise served as motivation to collect sediment cores during the summer of 2022 at four sites on the Canadian continental shelf and Alaskan upper continental slope to reconstruct changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to provide a comprehensive picture of the ocean environment during the preindustrial period before anthropogenic influences. We dated the sediments based on the 137 Cs radioactivity of bulk sediments and the 14 C concentrations of mollusk shells. The 137 Cs radioactivity shows a distinct onset corresponding to 1950 Common Era (CE) and the most prominent peak corresponding to 1963 CE. Multiple peaks appeared above the most prominent one, coinciding with nuclear power plant accidents in 1986 and 2011. Inventories of excess 210 Pb in all cores exceed the estimated supply of excess 210 Pb from atmospheric deposition, likely due to the scavenging supply of excess 210 Pb. By comparing 137 Cs and radiocarbon conventional ages, we estimated the local radiocarbon reservoir age value of each site. Using these local radiocarbon reservoir age and the conventional ages of mollusk shell samples, we established the age-depth models by the Bayesian method. The optimal ΔR values were 598, 511, 65, and –60 years at the MT1, MT2, BC2, and BC2-2 sites, respectively. The cores consist of clayey silts continuously deposited with uniquely high sedimentation rates of 0.17 to 0.74 cm y −1 . Variation in the Ca/Ti ratio indicates ~ 20, ~ 30, 50–60, 100–125, and 300-year cycles, likely attributed to the variation in the Aleutian Low that controls the Bering Strait inflow of Pacific waters influencing our core sites. These sediments will be used for further high-resolution, multi-proxy studies with forthcoming results.

western Arctic Ocean↗

Field-trip guide to Mount St. Helens, Washington - An overview of the eruptive history and petrology, tephra deposits, 1980 pyroclastic density current deposits, and the crater

This field trip will provide an introduction to several fascinating features of Mount St. Helens. The trip begins with a rigorous hike of about 15 km from the Johnston Ridge Observatory (9 km north-northeast of the crater vent), across the 1980 Pumice Plain, to Windy Ridge (3.6 km northeast of the crater vent) to examine features that document the dynamics and progressive emplacement of pyroclastic flows. The next day, we examine classic tephra outcrops of the past 3,900 years and observe changes in thickness and character of these deposits as we traverse their respective lobes. We examine clasts in the deposits and discuss how the petrology and geochemistry of Mount St. Helens deposits reveal the evolution of the magmatic system through time. We also investigate the stratigraphy of the 1980 blast deposit and review the chronology of this iconic eruption as we travel through the remains of the blown-down forest. The third day is another rigorous hike, about 13 km round trip, climbing from the base of Windy Ridge (elevation 1,240 m) to the front of the Crater Glacier (elevation 1,700 m). En route we examine basaltic andesite and basalt lava flows emplaced between 1,800 and 1,700 years before present, a heterolithologic flow deposit produced as the 1980 blast and debris avalanche interacted, debris-avalanche hummocks that are stranded on the north flank and in the crater mouth, and shattered dacite lava domes that were emplaced between 3,900 and 2,600 years before present. These domes underlie the northern part of the volcano. In addition, within the crater we traverse well-preserved pyroclastic-flow deposits that were emplaced on the crater floor during the summer of 1980, and a beautiful natural section through the 1980 deposits in the upper canyon of the Loowit River. Before plunging into the field-trip log, we provide an overview of Mount St. Helens geology, geochemistry, petrology, and volcanology as background. The volcano has been referred to as a “master teacher.” The 1980 eruption and studies both before and after 1980 played a major role in the establishment of the modern U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program and our understanding of flank collapses, debris avalanches, cryptodomes, blasts, pyroclastic density currents, and lahars, as well as the dynamics of magma ascent and eruption.

Washington↗

IL-2 and IL-12 alter NK cell responsiveness to IFN-γ-inducible protein 10 by down-regulating CXCR3 expression

Cytokine treatment of NK cells results in alterations in multiple cellular responses that include cytotoxicity, cytokine production, proliferation, and chemotaxis. To understand the molecular mechanisms underlying these responses, microarray analysis was performed and the resulting gene expression patterns were compared between unstimulated, IL-2, IL-2 plus IL-12, and IL-2 plus IL-18-stimulated NK92 cells. RNase protection assays and RT-PCR confirmed microarray predictions for changes in mRNA expression for nine genes involved in cell cycle progression, signal transduction, transcriptional activation, and chemotaxis. Multiprobe RNase protection assay also detected changes in the expression of CCR2 mRNA, a gene that was not imprinted on the microarray. We subsequently expanded our search for other chemokine receptor genes absent from the microarray and found an IL-2- and IL-12-dependent decrease in CXCR3 receptor mRNA expression in NK92 cells. A detailed analysis of CXCR3 expression in primary NK cells revealed that an IL-2 and an IL-12 together significantly decreased the CXCR3 receptor mRNA and receptor surface expression by 6 and 24 h of treatment, respectively. This decrease in receptor expression was associated with a significant reduction in chemotaxis in the presence of IFN-γ-inducible protein-10. The decline in CXCR3 mRNA was due to transcriptional and posttranscriptional mechanisms as the addition of actinomycin D to IL-2- and IL-12-treated NK92 slightly altered the half-life of the CXCR3 mRNA. Collectively, these data suggest that IL-2 and IL-12 directly affect NK cell migratory ability by rapid and direct down-regulation of chemokine receptor mRNA expression. Natural killer (NK) cells are large granular lymphocytes that play an important role in the defense against virally infected or malignant cells (1). Their activity can be characterized as nonadaptive and independent of MHC restriction (1, 2). A variety of NK cell functions including cytotoxicity, proliferation, chemotaxis, and cytokine production are modulated by regulatory cytokines including IFN-αβ, IL-2, IL-12, IL-18, IL-10, and TNF (reviewed in Refs. 3 and 4). Because cytokines induce such a broad range of effects in NK cells, the potential for alterations in gene expression in stimulated cells is very great. To determine which genes are regulated in response to cytokine stimulation, our laboratory has used cDNA microarray technology to examine gene expression in NK cells. Microarray technology is very useful because it allows for large-scale examination of gene expression. Additionally, this technology has proved useful in identifying physiologically relevant gene expression patterns in eukaryotic systems such as yeast (5) and fibroblasts (6) as well as predicting patterns of gene expression in tumor cells (7, 8). To examine gene expression in response to cytokine stimulation, a human NK cell line, NK92, was stimulated with IL-2 alone or in combination with IL-12 or IL-18. These cytokines were chosen because of their ability to induce NK cell responses; however, little is known about the repertoire of genes that are activated by these cytokines. Microarray analysis of gene expression in NK92 cells identified a variety of genes whose mRNA expression patterns change in response to cytokine stimulation. The genes encoding the mRNAs are not specific to any one pathway; however, changes in cytokine, chemokine, and chemokine receptor gene mRNAs were prevalent. Our mRNA studies on chemokine receptor gene expression were extended to cell surface analysis of receptor densities in cytokine-treated primary NK cells. Using FACS analysis, we observed a significant decrease in CXCR3 receptor expression in NK cells treated for 24 h with IL-2 and IL-12 alone or in combination. Recently, alterations in chemokine receptor expression were reported in IL-2-stimulated NK cells (9); however, the cells were cultured in IL-2 for 8–10 days. In contrast, our data demonstrate that cytokines can modify chemokine receptor function within hours, thus supporting a model whereby cytokines, in particular IL-2 and IL-12, regulate chemokine receptor expression in a direct, rapid, and novel manner.

Journal of Immunology↗

Statistics of petroleum exploration in the world outside the United States and Canada through 2015

The world’s future oil and gas supplies depend on existing reserves and the additions to those reserves that may result, in part, from ongoing exploration and new discoveries. This Circular summarizes available oil and gas exploration data for the world outside the United States and Canada (the study area) through 2015. It updates U.S. Geological Survey Circulars 981, 1096, and 1288 (by D.H. Root, E.D. Attanasi, and R.L. Turner, 1987; E.D. Attanasi and D.H. Root, 1993; and E.D. Attanasi, P.A. Freeman, and J.A. Glovier, 2007). The exploration measures focus on the search for undiscovered conventional oil and gas accumulations. The goal of this compilation, presentation, and analysis of exploration and discovery data is to identify, at the reconnaissance level, the areas explored for oil and gas and to characterize their degree of exploration maturity. Maps and graphs provide a visual summary of the exploration maturity of an area. The maps include both land and offshore areas. The maps show delineated prospective areas, which are the industry-defined areas of interest in the search for undiscovered conventional oil and gas accumulations. The maps also show explored areas, which are areas where the density of exploration and development drilling rules out new discoveries of large conventional petroleum accumulations. Whereas the maps show the static state of oil and gas exploration, the dynamic measures of exploration progress are characterized graphically. The graphs show the growth in the delineated prospective and explored areas as a function of wildcat drilling. The relation between the expansion of the delineated prospective area and the rate of wildcat drilling is determined by the siting of the wildcat wells. Additional graphs show the magnitude of discoveries tied to specific delineated prospective areas. These graphs provide a way to evaluate the quality, in terms of discovered oil and gas, of areas identified by the dates when each area became prospective. From 2006 through 2015, the delineated prospective area within the study area expanded at a rate of about 48,100 square miles per year. This is slightly above the expansion rate of 46,200 square miles per year from 1996 through 2005. From 2006 through 2015, the explored area expanded at a rate of about 12,900 square miles per year, which is somewhat greater than the rate of 11,300 square miles per year for the period from 1996 through 2005. The delineated prospective area established by 1970 accounts for 35 percent of the delineated prospective area established through 2015 but contains 70 percent of the oil and 52 percent of the natural gas discovered through 2015. From 2006 through 2015, offshore discoveries accounted for 71 percent of the oil and 78 percent of the gas discovered in the study area and 40 percent of the offshore wildcat wells were drilled in deep offshore areas (deeper than 200 meters water depth). The delineated prospective area and explored area calculated with oil and gas wells and fields at depths of at least 10,000 feet are less than half of the respective areas calculated with all oil and gas wells and fields. The discovery histories of most regions indicate that average discovery sizes are generally larger in deeper geologic horizons. To correctly interpret the exploration maturity of a deep horizon, drilling and discovery data must be considered in the context of the geology of the area. Such analyses should be prepared at the level of the petroleum basin or subbasin.

Circular↗

Palila Restoration: Lessons from Long-term Research

BACKGROUND The palila (Loxioides bailleui) is a member of the Hawaiian honeycreeper family of birds (Drepanidinae), which is renowned for the profusion of species - many with bizarre bills and specialized feeding habits - that radiated from a single ancestral type. Most of the 57 or so honeycreeper species are extinct, and the palila is endangered because of its high degree of dependence on the mamane tree (Sophora chrysophylla) (Figure 1) and its restricted distribution on the upper slopes of Mauna Kea (Figure 2). Three decades of research have revealed many important facts about palila, providing the foundation and impetus for conservation programs in the wild and captivity. Additionally, an ambitious public conservation campaign arose due to the land-use conflicts on Mauna Kea. Here we summarize progress in palila conservation biology and outline steps that might overcome the remaining major challenges to its recovery. We also highlight lessons learned from palila research that may help the recovery of other Hawaiian forest birds. Palila and two closely-related species on the tiny islands of Nihoa and Laysan are the last of the seed-eating honeycreeper species in the Hawaiian Islands. About a quarter of the honeycreeper species known from living and fossil specimens had finch-like bills suited mainly for eating seeds and fruits. Because of their dietary specialization, palila are vulnerable to changes in forest size and quality, as was also likely the case for extinct species of seed specialists. Palila and many other forest bird species were once distributed in dry, lowland forests. Fossil records indicate that palila also occurred in the lowlands of O`ahu and Kaua`i until human settlement of those islands. However, because lowland habitats have been highly modified by humans and because mamane occurs today primarily at high elevation, palila are the only native bird species found exclusively in dry, subalpine habitat (2000?2850 m). Similar to other feeding specialists, palila lay few eggs, raise few young each year, and take a relatively long time to complete the nesting cycle. Low rates of reproduction result in low rates of population growth and low potential for recovery from disturbances. Long-term studies of palila offer important insights into the conservation biology of all Hawaiian forest bird species, particularly feeding specialists like the palila. Palila face many challenges common to both generalist and specialist Hawaiian honeycreeper species. Habitat loss and degradation, as well as introduced avian diseases, have reduced their numbers and limited their distribution to a very small portion of their historic range. Introduced mammals prey on palila, while alien insects reduce caterpillars that are particularly important in the diet of nestlings. Securing legal protection and funding for palila restoration has been challenging. Understanding how the palila has avoided extinction can help managers plan its recovery, and better design recovery plans for species with different feeding strategies in other habitats.

Fact Sheet↗

California State Waters map series — Offshore of Pigeon Point, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Pigeon Point map area is located in central California, on the Pacific Coast about 50 km south of San Francisco and 25 km northwest of Santa Cruz. The onshore part of the map area is sparsely populated. The nearest significant onshore cultural center is Pescadero, an unincorporated community with a population of well under 1,000. The hilly coastal area is virtually undeveloped, used primarily for agricultural or as grazing land for sheep and cattle. Agriculture is limited to the coastal uplifted Pleistocene marine terraces and upper Pleistocene alluvial fan deposits, which lie between the shoreline and the northwest-trending Santa Cruz Mountains. The map area is cut by the San Gregorio Fault Zone, and is located a few kilometers southwest of the San Andreas Fault Zone. Coastal uplift and folding in the map area has been attributed to a westward bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone and also to right-lateral movement along the San Gregorio Fault Zone. The irregular coastal geomorphology of this area, which consists of low, rocky cliffs and sparse, small pocket beaches backed by low, terraced hills, is partly attributable to this ongoing deformation. The shelf in the map area is underlain by variable amounts (0 to 20 m) of upper Quaternary nearshore and shelf sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. The southern part of the map is characterized by the presence of uplifted bedrock that has been linked to a local zone of transpression in the San Gregorio Fault Zone. This uplift, coupled with high wave energy, has resulted in little or no sediment cover in this area where exposures of bedrock are present at water depths of as much as 45 m. The thickest deposits of sediment are located in the northern part of the map area. Coastal sediment transport in the map area is characterized by north-to-south littoral transport of sediment that is derived mainly from streams in the Santa Cruz Mountains and also from local coastal erosion. Shoreline-change studies indicate long-term erosion; within the region between San Francisco and Davenport, the highest long- and short-term coastal-erosion rates occur in the map area, just north of Point Año Nuevo. During the last approximately 300 years, as much as 18 million cubic yards (14 million cubic meters) of sand-sized sediment has been eroded from the area between Año Nuevo Island and Point Año Nuevo and transported south. Once widened by this pulse of eroded sediment, beaches south of Point Año Nuevo are now narrowing as the tail end of this mass of sand progresses farther south. The Offshore of Pigeon Point map area lies within the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the “Oregonian province” or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 335 km south of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off of central California has experienced a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift away from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Seafloor habitats in the Offshore of Pigeon Point map area lie within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat. Significant rocky outcrops, which support kelp-forest communities in the nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deeper water, dominate the inner shelf waters. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high-wave-energy environments. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of rockfish and greenling.

California↗

Groundwater status and trends for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

Well information and groundwater-level measurements for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, were compiled from data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and seven other organizations. From the full set of about 60,000 wells and 450,000 water-level measurements a subset of 761 wells within the aquifers of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) then was used to develop a simple linear groundwater-level trend map for 1968–2009. The mean of the trends was a decline of 1.9 feet per year (ft/yr), with 72 percent of the water levels in wells declining. Rates of declines greater than 1.0 ft/yr were measured in 50 percent of wells, declines greater than 2.0 ft/yr in 38 percent of wells, declines greater than 4.0 ft/yr in 29 percent of wells, and declines greater than 8.0 ft/yr in 4 percent of wells. Water-level data were used to identify groups of wells with similar hydraulic heads and temporal trends to delineate areas of overall similar groundwater conditions. Discontinuities in hydraulic head between well groups were used to help infer the presence of barriers to groundwater flow such as changes in lithology or the occurrence of folds and faults. In areas without flow barriers, dissimilarities in response of well groups over time resulted from the formation of groundwater mounds caused by recharge from irrigation or regions of decline caused by pumping. The areas of focus for this analysis included the Umatilla area, Oregon, and the Palouse Slope/eastern Yakima Fold Belt in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) consisting of Adams, Franklin, Grant, and Lincoln Counties, Washington. In the Umatilla area, water levels from 286 wells were used to identify multiple areas of high hydraulic gradient that indicate vertical and horizontal barriers to groundwater flow. These barriers divide the groundwater-flow system into several compartments with varying degrees of interconnection. Horizontal flow barriers commonly correspond to mapped geologic structure and result in horizontal hydraulic gradients that progressively become steeper from north to south corresponding to an increase in structural complexity that may be impeding recharge from the uplands into the heavily developed areas. Most CRBG aquifers in the Umatilla area are declining and since 1970, cumulative declines range from about 100 to 300 feet. Significant vertical hydraulic gradients are documented for relatively small areas near Umatilla, and since the 1970s, downward vertical gradients in these areas have been increasing as hydraulic heads in the deeper units have declined. The absence of vertical gradients over much of the area may be a consequence of flow through commingling wells that results in the equilibration of the heads between aquifers. On the Palouse Slope in the central GWMA, large groundwater declines occurred during 1968–2009 along a north-south swath in the middle of the region. An analysis of 1,195 wells along major flow paths and through the area of persistent groundwater-level declines indicates that barriers to flow are not as evident in this area as in Umatilla. This is consistent with the geologic interpretation of the Palouse Slope as being a gently folded structure created by voluminous sheet flows of CRBG lavas. Groundwater discharge into the sediment-filled coulees, where the upper aquifers are intersected at land surface by incised canyons, is proposed as an alternative to explain local steepening of the hydraulic gradient along the Palouse Slope previously attributed to the presence of a groundwater dam. Comparison of generalized potentiometric surface maps developed for pre-development conditions and post-2000 conditions indicate that pre-development groundwater flow was from the uplands toward the Columbia and Snake River and that post-2000 flow patterns in the area are controlled by irrigation practices that have resulted in broad regions of elevated or depressed hydraulic head. In some cases, irrigation-related changes in head have reversed groundwater flow directions. Evidence of significant vertical hydraulic gradients exists, although much of the aquifer thickness is affected by commingling of wells. The effect of commingling and its relative contribution to problems related to groundwater-level declines remains unclear.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho↗

Hydrology and water quality of Shell Lake, Washburn County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of diversion and changes in water level on the water quality of a shallow terminal lake

Shell Lake is a relatively shallow terminal lake (tributaries but no outlets) in northwestern Wisconsin that has experienced approximately 10 feet (ft) of water-level fluctuation over more than 70 years of record and extensive flooding of nearshore areas starting in the early 2000s. The City of Shell Lake (City) received a permit from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources in 2002 to divert water from the lake to a nearby river in order to lower water levels and reduce flooding. Previous studies suggested that water-level fluctuations were driven by long-term cycles in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, although questions about the lake’s connection with the groundwater system remained. The permit required that the City evaluate assumptions about lake/groundwater interactions made in previous studies and evaluate the effects of the water diversion on water levels in Shell Lake and other nearby lakes. Therefore, a cooperative study between the City and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was initiated to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology of the area and evaluate potential effects of the diversion on water levels in Shell Lake, the surrounding groundwater system, and nearby lakes. Concerns over deteriorating water quality in the lake, possibly associated with changes in water level, prompted an additional cooperative project between the City and the USGS to evaluate efeffects of changes in nutrient loading associated with changes in water levels on the water quality of Shell Lake. Numerical models were used to evaluate how the hydrology and water quality responded to diversion of water from the lake and historical changes in the watershed. The groundwater-flow model MODFLOW was used to simulate groundwater movement in the area around Shell Lake, including groundwater/surface-water interactions. Simulated results from the MODFLOW model indicate that groundwater flows generally northward in the area around Shell Lake, with flow locally converging toward the lake. Total groundwater inflow to Shell Lake is small (approximately 5 percent of the water budget) compared with water entering the lake from precipitation (83 percent) and surface-water runoff (13 percent). The MODFLOW model also was used to simulate average annual hydrologic conditions from 1949 to 2009, including effects of the removal of 3 billion gallons of water during 2003–5. The maximum decline in simulated average annual water levels for Shell Lake due to the diversion alone was 3.3 ft at the end of the diversion process in 2005. Model simulations also indicate that although water level continued to decline through 2009 in response to local weather patterns (local drought), the effects of the diversion decreased after the diversion ceased; that is, after 4 years of recovery (2006–9), drawdown attributable to the diversion alone decreased by about 0.6 ft because of increased groundwater inflow and decreased lake-water outflow to groundwater caused by the artificially lower lake level. A delayed response in drawdown of less than 0.5 ft was transmitted through the groundwater-flow system to upgradient lakes. This relatively small effect on upgradient lakes is attributed in part to extensive layers of shallow clay that limit lake/groundwater interaction in the area. Data collected in the lake indicated that Shell Lake is polymictic (characterized by frequent deep mixing) and that its productivity is limited by the amount of phosphorus in the lake. The lake was typically classified as oligotrophic-mesotrophic in June, mesotrophic in July, and mesotrophic-eutrophic in August. In polymictic lakes like Shell Lake, phosphorus released from the sediments is not trapped near the bottom of the lake but is intermittently released to the shallow water, resulting in deteriorating water quality as summer progresses. Because the productivity of Shell Lake is limited by phosphorus, the sources of phosphorus to the lake were quantified, and the response in water quality to changes in phosphorus inputs were evaluated by means of eutrophication models. During 2009, the total input of phosphorus to Shell Lake was 1,730 pounds (lb), of which 1,320 lb came from external sources (76 percent) and 414 lb came from internal loading from sediments in the lake (24 percent). The largest external source was from surface-water runoff, which delivered about 52 percent of the total phosphorus load compared with about 13 percent of the water input. The second largest source was from precipitation (wetfall and dryfall), which delivered 19 percent of the load compared to about 83 percent of the water input. Contributions from septic systems and groundwater accounted for about 3 and 2 percent, respectively. Increased runoff raises water levels in the lake but does not necessarily increase phosphorus loading because phosphorus concentrations in the tributaries decline during increased flow, possibly because of shorter retention times in upstream wetlands. Phosphorus loading to the lake in 2009 represented what occurred after a series of dry years; therefore, this information was combined with data from 2011, a wet year, to estimate phosphorus loading during a range of hydrologic conditions by estimating loading from each component of the phosphorus budget for each year from 1949 to 2011. Comparisons of historical water-quality records with historical water levels and applications of a hydrodynamic model (Dynamic Lake Model, DLM) and empirical eutrophication models were used to understand how changes in water level and the coinciding changes in phosphorus loading affect the water quality of Shell Lake. DLM simulations indicate that large changes in water level (approximately 10 ft) affect the persistence of stratification in the lake. During periods with low water levels, the lake is a well-mixed, polymictic system, with water quality degrading slightly as summer progresses. During periods with high water levels, the lake is more stratified, and phosphorus from internal loading is trapped in the hypolimnion and released later in summer, which results in more extreme seasonality in water quality and better clarity in early summer. Results of eutrophication model simulations using a range in external phosphorus inputs illustrate how water quality in Shell Lake (phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths) responds to changes in external phosphorus loading. Results indicate that a 50-percent reduction in external loading from that measured in 2009 would be required to change phosphorus concentrations from 0.018 milligram per liter (mg/L) (measured in 2009) to 0.012 mg/L (estimated for the mid-1800s from analysis of diatoms in sediment cores). Such reductions in phosphorus loading cannot be accomplished by targeting septic systems or internal loading alone because septic systems contribute only about 3 percent of the phosphorus input to the lake, and internal loading from the sediments of Shell Lake contributes only about 25 percent of phosphorus input. Complete elimination of phosphorus from septic systems and internal loading would decrease the phosphorus concentrations in the lake by 0.003–0.004 mg/L. Therefore, reducing phosphorus concentration in the lake more than by 0.004 mg/L requires decreasing phosphorus loading from surface-water contributions, primarily runoff to the lake. Reconstructed changes in water quality from 1860 to 2010, based on changes in the diatom communities archived in the sediments and eutrophication model simulations, suggest that anthropogenic changes in the watershed (sawmill construction in 1881; the establishment of the village of Shell Lake; and land-use changes in the 1920s, including increased agriculture) had a much larger effect on water quality than the natural changes associated with fluctuations in water level. Although the effects of natural changes in water level on water quality appear to be small, changes in water level do have a modest effect on water quality, primarily manifested as small improvements during higher water levels. Fluctuations in water level, however, have a larger effect on the seasonality of water-quality patterns, with better water quality, especially increased Secchi depths, in early summer during years with high water levels.

Wisconsin↗

Effects of Pumping on Ground-Water Flow Near Water-Supply Wells in the Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy Aquifer, Pennsauken Township, Camden County, New Jersey

Since the 1970's, hexavalent chromium has been detected in concentrations as great as 1.0 milligram per liter in wells at the Puchack well field operated by the Camden City Department of Utilities, Water Division (Water Department), forcing the Water Department to progressively remove five of its six wells from service between 1975 and 1988. The wells in the Puchack well field range in depth from 140 to 220 feet and are screened in the Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer. The Water Department has continued to pump Puchack Well 1 to maintain a hydraulic gradient toward the well field in an attempt to limit contaminant migration. In late 1997, concerns about treating the water withdrawn from Puchack Well 1 led water managers to consider temporarily discontinuing the pumping. In the spring of 1998, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, began a preliminary assessment of the potential effects of temporarily removing Puchack Well 1 from service. Water levels in the Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer were measured during both pumping and nonpumping conditions to determine the direction and velocity of ground-water flow and the results were compared. Data collected in late March and early April 1998 indicate the presence of a ground-water divide between the Puchack well field and the Morris and Delair well fields when Puchack Well 1 was being pumped. A similar divide also was present when the well was not being pumped. The position and persistence of this divide limits the probability that contaminants in the vicinity of the Puchack well field will reach the Delair and Morris well fields during either pumping condition. Another divide southeast of Puchack Well 1 while the well was being pumped was no longer evident when the pumping was stopped and water levels had recovered. Under non-pumping conditions, ground water between Puchack Well 1 and this divide could begin to migrate toward other large pumping centers to the southeast. The average linear ground-water velocity along an arbitrarily selected southeast-trending flow path was estimated to be from 221 to 332 feet per year. This estimate indicates that any contaminated ground water that may be present within the area influenced by pumping at Puchack Well 1 may begin to move toward the pumping centers less than 2 miles to the southeast if Puchack Well 1 is either temporarily or permanently removed from service.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Integrating science and resource management in Tampa Bay, Florida

Tampa Bay is recognized internationally for its remarkable progress towards recovery since it was pronounced "dead" in the late 1970s. Due to significant efforts by local governments, industries and private citizens throughout the watershed, water clarity in Tampa Bay is now equal to what it was in 1950, when population in the watershed was less than one-quarter of what it is today. Seagrass extent has increased by more than 8,000 acres since the mid-1980s, and fish and wildlife populations are increasing. Central to this successful turn-around has been the Tampa Bay resource management community's long-term commitment to development and implementation of strong science-based management strategies. Research institutions and agencies, including Eckerd College, the Florida Wildlife Commission Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Mote Marine Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Southwest Florida Water Management District, University of South Florida, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, local and State governments, and private companies contribute significantly to the scientific basis of our understanding of Tampa Bay's structure and ecological function. Resource management agencies, including the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council's Agency on Bay Management, the Southwest Florida Water Management District's Surface Water Improvement and Management Program, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program, depend upon this scientific basis to develop and implement regional adaptive management programs. The importance of integrating science with management has become fully recognized by scientists and managers throughout the region, State and Nation. Scientific studies conducted in Tampa Bay over the past 10–15 years are increasingly diverse and complex, and resource management programs reflect our increased knowledge of geology, hydrology and hydrodynamics, ecology and restoration techniques. However, a synthesis of this research and its integration into resource management has not been prepared for Tampa Bay since the mid-1980s. The need for an up-to-date synthesis of Tampa Bay science and management has resulted in the production of this document. The U.S. Geological Survey recently completed a 5-year Tampa Bay Integrated Science Study, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program updated the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan for Tampa Bay in 2006. These efforts build upon results of the many research and management studies and programs summarized here.

Florida↗

California State Waters map series — Offshore of Scott Creek, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Scott Creek map area is located in central California, on the Pacific Coast about 65 km south of San Francisco and 12 km northwest of Santa Cruz. The onshore part of the map area is sparsely populated; the only cultural center is Davenport, a small community with a population of less than 500. The hilly coastal area is virtually undeveloped, and a large percentage of coastal land is incorporated in open-space trusts. Agricultural land is almost entirely limited to coastal areas between the shoreline and the northwest-trending Santa Cruz Mountains, on Pleistocene alluvial fan deposits and the lowest emergent marine terrace. The Santa Cruz Mountains are part of the northwest-trending Coast Ranges that run roughly parallel to the San Andreas Fault Zone. The map area is cut by the San Gregorio Fault Zone, and it lies a few kilometers southwest of the San Andreas Fault Zone. Regional folding and uplift along the coast has been attributed to a westward bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone and also to right-lateral movement along the San Gregorio Fault Zone. The irregular coastal geomorphology of this area, which consists of low, rocky cliffs and sparse, small pocket beaches backed by low, terraced hills, is partly attributable to this ongoing deformation. The shelf in the map area is underlain by variable amounts (0 to 25 m) of upper Quaternary shelf, nearshore, and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. The northernmost part of the map area is characterized by the presence of uplifted bedrock that has been linked to a local transpressional zone in the San Gregorio Fault Zone. This uplift, coupled with high wave energy, has resulted in little or no sediment cover in this area where exposures of bedrock are present at water depths of as much as 45 m. The thickest deposits of sediment lie offshore of both Davenport and the mouth of Waddell Creek. Coastal sediment transport in the map area is characterized by north-to-south littoral transport of sediment that is derived mainly from streams in the Santa Cruz Mountains and also from local coastal erosion. Shoreline-change studies indicate long-term erosion; within the region between San Francisco and Davenport, the highest long- and short-term coastal-erosion rates occur north of the map area, just north of Point Año Nuevo. During the last approximately 300 years, as much as 18 million cubic yards (14 million cubic meters) of sand-sized sediment has been eroded from the area between Año Nuevo Island and Point Año Nuevo and transported south. Once widened by this pulse of eroded sediment, beaches in the map area are now narrowing as the tail end of this mass of sand progresses farther south. The Offshore of Scott Creek map area lies within the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the “Oregonian province” or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 320 km south of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off of central California has experienced a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift away from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Seafloor habitats in the Offshore of Scott Creek map area, which lie within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat, range from significant rocky outcrops that support kelp-forest communities nearshore to rocky-reef communities in deeper water. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high-wave-energy environments. The kelp beds are the northernmost known habitat for the population of southern sea otters. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of rockfish and greenling.

California↗

Effect of aging on aluminum hydroxide complexes in dilute aqueous solutions

Aqueous aluminum solutions containing 4?10 -5 mole/liter aluminum and a constant total ionic strength of 10 -2, but with varying ratios of hydroxide to aluminum (OH:Al), were prepared. Progress of these solutions toward equilibrium conditions over aging periods of as much as 2 years was studied by determining the composition and pH of the solutions at various time intervals. The solutions, after mixing, were supersaturated with respect to both crystalline and amorphous forms of aluminum oxides and aluminum hydroxides. The compositions of the solutions were determined by use of a timed colorimetric analytical procedure which allowed the estimation of three separate forms of aluminum that have been designated Al a, Al b, and Al c. Form Al a appeared to be composed of monomeric species such as Al(H20)6+3, Al(OH)(H20)5+2, Al(OH)2(H20)4 +I and Al(OH)4-. Form Al b was polynuclear material containing perhaps 20-400 aluminum atoms per structure. It appeared to be a metastable material. Form Al c was composed of relatively large, microcrystalline, clearly solid AI(OH)3 particles. For each OH :Al ratio, the concentration of Al a remained constant with aging time, Al b decreased, and Al c increased. It appeared that Al b particles were increasing in size and ultimately were converted to Al c particles. After a few weeks' aging, Al c particles had the structure of gibbsite. In all solutions, equilibrium was only very slowly achieved, and the time required depended on the OH:Al ratio and how rapidly the solution was initially prepared (mixing time). Lower ratios caused a slower approach to equilibrium; sometimes equilibrium was not achieved even after several years' aging. The more slowly base was initially added (to obtain the proper OH:Al ratio), the more slowly was equilibrium approached. Ultimate equilibrium values of dissolved aluminum concentration and pH were consistent with known thermodynamic data on monomeric aluminum species. From data determined during the aging study and by considering Al b material to consist of extremely small solid gibbsite particles, it was possible to estimate the Gibbs free energy of the (001) crystal face (?F, the gibbsite 'face') and the. Gibbs free energy of the (110) and (100) crystal faces (?E, the gibbsite 'edge') of gibbsite in equilibrium with its saturated solution. These values were: ?F=1404 ? 24 ergs/cm 2, and ?E = 483 ?-84 ergs/cm 2.

Water Supply Paper↗

Analysis and review of fishery-dependent data for Hawaiian nearshore noncommercial fisheries

Noncommercial, shore-based fisheries provide economic, social, and cultural services to communities throughout the Hawaiian Islands. The State of Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), Division of Aquatic Resources (DAR) routinely conducts surveys to monitor noncommercial fisheries such that estimates of fishing effort and catch by gear type can be generated and used to implement more sustainable management practices. DAR executes both the Hawai‘i Marine Recreational Fishery Survey (HMRFS), a nationally standardized survey that focuses on intercepting fishers at access points (i.e., boat ramps) across the main Hawaiian Islands, and a set of roving creel surveys on O‘ahu, Maui Nui, and Kaua‘i that observe and intercept fishers at locations along the shoreline outside of those targeted by HMRFS. The latter set of creel surveys were designed to complement HMRFS by expanding its geographic coverage and thus providing a more representative picture of noncommercial fishing in Hawai‘i. Sustainable management priorities set by DAR rely on the availability of statewide, fishery- dependent data. Thus, we collate information from island-based roving creel surveys into a cohesive Statewide Creel Survey Database. Further, we provide preliminary analyses and describe ways that surveys could be streamlined to improve future data collection, analysis, and utility. In so doing, we synthesize the most detailed information to-date about noncommercial shore-based fisheries of Hawai‘i. The unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage of DAR’s dataset reveals the value of their survey efforts over the last decade to address fishery management needs. Our primary objectives, results, and conclusions are summarized below: 1) Integrate DAR roving creel survey data from different islands into a single Statewide Creel Survey Dataset (Chapter II). We describe the collation of creel survey data from O‘ahu, Maui Nui, and Kaua‘i into a statewide dataset. We also offer ways in which these surveys could be streamlined to meet the needs of managers and decision makers. Briefly, these are to create a statewide strategic plan, standardize the execution of standard operating procedures, centralize the creel survey database and associated metadata, and consider using technology that improves the data pipeline, including transitioning from paper-based to electronic systems for data entry and processing. 2) Assess whether the new Statewide Creel Survey Dataset can provide inputs for length-based stock assessments (Chapter III). Only on Maui were interviews conducted with associated catch data. There was reasonably high taxonomic coverage (42 species from 186 interviews with 310 fishers), but low sample sizes for nearly all species precluded the development of length-based stock assessments. We provide summary statistics from the existing data and briefly discuss how technologies could be used to automate analysis of images of noncommercial catch. 3) Analyze the Statewide Creel Survey Dataset for spatial and temporal patterns in fishing effort (Chapter IV): a. Visualizing noncommercial fishing pressure . We found that fishing effort (mean number of fishers observed per survey event at a site) on O'ahu was over three times greater than that recorded during similar surveys conducted on Maui or Kaua'i. We create maps that display the distribution of angling and spearfishing effort around each of the three islands. b. Factors that predict fishing “hotspots” around Maui . Fishing effort on Maui was associated with areas with more wave power and less parking availability. There were half as many fishers in areas with parking lots than in areas with parking on the road shoulder only. c. Changes in fishing effort during the COVID-19 pandemic . There was no change in fishing effort on O‘ahu during the first year of the pandemic, but there was a 20% decline in year 2 and a 33% decline in year 3, both in comparison to pre-pandemic levels. Pre-pandemic creel survey data were unavailable for Maui and Kaua‘i, but fishing effort on these islands also declined as the pandemic progressed at similar or greater rates than those observed on O‘ahu. 4) Quantify potential bias in survey methods by experimentally deriving fisher detection probabilities of shore-based and drone-based surveys (Chapter V): a. Shore-based surveys . We conducted roving creel surveys for four months at three locations around Hilo Bay, designed to emulate and estimate the efficacy of DAR standard operating procedures. There was high agreement between paired observers in counting fishers, leading to near-perfect detection probabilities of both anglers (94%) and spearfishers (97%), but relatively low agreement and detection probabilities of other fishers (throw net, ‘opihi picking, etc.) (52%). b. Drone-based surveys . We used an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; operated by DAR staff) to collect imagery of fishers along the Hilo Bay shoreline. We used still images and video clips (with known fishing activity) to build an online survey that was distributed to DAR and HCFRU personnel, asking them to count and categorize resource users as a snorkeler, spearfisher, angler, or other fisher. Only 40.0% of the responses correctly counted and categorized resource users in the image. Anglers were correctly identified and enumerated in 90.0% of the responses, but the correct response rates of the other three user categories ranged from 67.8% – 79.4%. Snorkelers and anglers tended to be undercounted while spearfishers and other fishers were overcounted. 5) Review the potential for incorporating emerging technologies that will improve, augment, and evolve creel survey data collection, especially for spearfishing (Chapter VI). Within the context of monitoring shore-based noncommercial fishing, we review the use of electronic data entry/processing systems with geospatial and image capabilities, field cameras, drones, smart buoys, citizen science apps, data mining social media, artificial intelligence and machine learning. We highlight several of the challenges and considerations when implementing these technologies into creel surveys and provide a synthesis of options that could be used to better estimate spearfishing. The general conclusion of this assessment is that the DAR roving creel survey program is collecting valuable data that supplement the existing HMRFS efforts. However, there are a number of areas that could be improved to make these efforts a more effective tool for decision-making processes in resource management and conservation: 1) Establishment of clear statewide and island objectives for the Statewide Creel Survey Dataset. Currently, data collection efforts are focused towards addressing a very broad purpose – supplementing the HMRFS data collection efforts. However, the results of the preliminary analyses conducted as part of this project suggest that the data could be used to address other areas of need if these objectives were clearly defined. Further, the design of the creel survey would benefit from greater standardization of survey protocols between islands and an effort to define a) the acceptable margins of error associated with the estimates generated by these data and b) the minimum level of change that the surveys would need to detect to be useful to managers. 2) Centralization of data entry, data quality assessment, and data accessibility. Currently, each DAR office manages data entry, checks the data for errors, and is responsible for managing and storing the data. Instituting a centralized data entry system, particularly an online database that can receive survey data from tablets or smartphones running a standardized data collection application would improve efficiency, reduce data entry errors, and accelerate the availability of data to managers. A substantial amount of time and effort from the project described in this report was devoted to checking the dataset for errors. The development and application of data quality assurance protocols would ensure that the data are reliable and available in a timely fashion to support management decisions. 3) Address lingering questions regarding the efficacy of current survey protocols to capture and characterize the spearfishing component of the noncommercial fishery. The results presented in the report suggest that the current creel survey protocols do a good job detecting spearfishers when present but are not capturing sufficient data about their catch or total effort. There are also questions remaining as to whether the survey times and sites are sufficiently capturing the behavior of spearfishers in Hawai‘i. A more thorough assessment – whether through additional research, alteration of survey design, or review of data by representatives of the spearfishing community – would provide insight on how to use the Statewide Creel Survey Database to inform management of spearfishing. 4) Investigate the integration of technological advancements into the creel survey methods. As priorities and needs are developed and formalized, it would be valuable to consider how various technological advancements might enhance and streamline data collection or open new avenues of inquiry.

Hawaii↗