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At least 1,657 records · Page 92Linked to original sources

USGS2006

Geomorphic characteristics and classification of Duluth-area streams, Minnesota

In 2003 and 2004, a geomorphic assessment of streams in 20 watersheds in the Duluth, Minn., area was conducted to identify and summarize geomorphic characteristics, processes, disturbance mechanisms, and potential responses to disturbance. Methods used to assess the streams included watershed characterization, descriptions of segment slopes and valley types, historical aerial photograph interpretation, and rapid field assessments and intensive field surveys of stream reaches. Geomorphic conditions were summarized into a segment-scale classification with 15 categories mainly based on drainage-network position and slope, and, secondarily, based on geologic setting, valley type, and dominant geomorphic processes. Main causes of geomorphic disturbance included historical logging and agriculture, and ongoing urban development, human-caused channel alterations, road and storm sewer drainage, ditching, hiking trails, and gravel pits or quarries. Geomorphic responses to these disturbances are dependent on a combination of drainage-network position, slope, and geologic setting. Geologic setting is related to drainage-network position because the geologic deposits parallel the Lake Superior shoreline. Headwater streams in large watersheds flow over glacial deposits above altitudes of about 1,200 feet (ft). Headwater tributaries and upper main stems have ditch-like channels with gentle slopes and no valleys. Urban development and road drainage cause increased runoff and flood peaks in these segments resulting in channel widening. Below about 1,200 ft, main-stem segments generally are affected by bedrock type and structure and have steep slopes and confined or entrenched valleys. Increases in flood peaks do not cause incision or widening in the bedrock-controlled valleys; instead, the flow and scour areas are expanded. Feeder tributaries to these main stems have steep, confined valleys and may be sources for sediment from urban areas, road runoff, or storm sewer outfalls. Main-stem segments near the glacial deposits/surficial bedrock contact (1,000–1,200 ft) have the most potential for response to disturbance because they tend to have narrow valleys with sandy glacial lakeshore deposits and moderate slopes. Increases in flood peaks (from upstream increases in runoff) increase the potential for landslides and mass wasting from valley sides as well as channel widening.

Minnesota↗

USGS2007

Sedimentation Survey of Lago Icacos, Puerto Rico, March 2004

The Lago Icacos, a small reservoir built in 1930 and owned by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, is part of the Rio Blanco Hydroelectric Power System. The reservoir is located in Naguabo, within the Caribbean National Forest in eastern Puerto Rico. The original storage capacity of the reservoir was 19,119 cubic meters in 1930. The bathymetric survey conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in March 2004 indicates a storage capacity of 7,435 cubic meters or 39 percent of the original storage capacity, and a maximum depth of 5.3 meters. The reservoir has been dredged several times to restore lost storage capacity caused by high sediment loads and the frequent landslides that occur upstream from the dam, which have partially or completely filled the Lago Icacos. Because sediment removal activities have not been documented, sedimentation rates could not be determined using storage volume comparisons. A reservoir sedimentation rate was calculated using the daily sediment load data gathered at the U.S. Geological Survey Rio Icacos streamflow station upstream of the reservoir, the estimated Lago Icacos sediment trapping efficiency, and the estimated sediment yield of the Lago Icacos basin extrapolated from the Rio Icacos sediment load data. Using these properties, the Lago Icacos sedimentation rate was estimated as 71 cubic meters per year, equivalent to about 1 percent of the original storage capacity per year. The Lago Icacos 7.47-square-kilometer drainage area sediment yield was estimated as 7,126 tonnes per year or about 954 tonnes per square kilometer per year. Based on the current estimated sedimentation rate of 71 cubic meters per year, Lago Icacos has a useful life of about 105 years or to year 2109.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Preliminary Volcano-Hazard Assessment for Gareloi Volcano, Gareloi Island, Alaska

Gareloi Volcano (178.794 degrees W and 51.790 degrees N) is located on Gareloi Island in the Delarof Islands group of the Aleutian Islands, about 2,000 kilometers west-southwest of Anchorage and about 150 kilometers west of Adak, the westernmost community in Alaska. This small (about 8x10 kilometer) volcano has been one of the most active in the Aleutians since its discovery by the Bering expedition in the 1740s, though because of its remote location, observations have been scant and many smaller eruptions may have gone unrecorded. Eruptions of Gareloi commonly produce ash clouds and lava flows. Scars on the flanks of the volcano and debris-avalanche deposits on the adjacent seafloor indicate that the volcano has produced large landslides in the past, possibly causing tsunamis. Such events are infrequent, occurring at most every few thousand years. The primary hazard from Gareloi is airborne clouds of ash that could affect aircraft. In this report, we summarize and describe the major volcanic hazards associated with Gareloi.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Hydrogeologic framework, groundwater and surface-water systems, land use, pumpage, and water budget of the Chamokane Creek basin, Stevens County, Washington

A study of the water resources of the unconsolidated groundwater system of the Chamokane Creek basin was conducted to determine the hydrogeologic framework, interactions of shallow and deep parts of the groundwater system with each other and the surface-water system, changes in land use and land cover, and water-use estimates. Chamokane Creek basin is a 179 mi2 area that borders and partially overlaps the Spokane Indian Reservation in southern Stevens County in northeastern Washington State. Aquifers within the Chamokane Creek basin are part of a sequence of glaciofluvial and glaciolacustrine sediment that may reach total thicknesses of about 600 ft. In 1979, most of the water rights in the Chamokane Creek basin were adjudicated by the United States District Court requiring regulation in favor of the Spokane Tribe of Indians' senior water right. The Spokane Tribe, the State of Washington, and the United States are concerned about the effects of additional groundwater development within the basin on Chamokane Creek. Information provided by this study will be used to evaluate the effects of potential increases in groundwater withdrawals on groundwater and surface-water resources within the basin. The hydrogeologic framework consists of six hydrogeologic units: The Upper outwash aquifer, the Landslide Unit, the Valley Confining Unit, the Lower Aquifer, the Basalt Unit, and the Bedrock Unit. The Upper outwash aquifer occurs along the valley floors of the study area and consists of sand, gravel, cobbles, boulders, with minor silt and (or) clay interbeds in places. The Lower aquifer is a confined aquifer consisting of sand and gravel that occurs at depth below the Valley confining unit. Median horizontal hydraulic conductivity values for the Upper outwash aquifer, Valley confining unit, Lower aquifer, and Basalt unit were estimated to be 540, 10, 19, and 3.7 ft/d, respectively. Many low-flow stream discharge measurements at sites on Chamokane Creek and its tributaries were at or near zero flow. The most notable exception is where Chamokane Creek is supported by discharge of large springs from the Upper outwash aquifer in the southern part of the basin. Most high-flow measurements indicated gains in streamflow (groundwater discharging to the stream). Large streamflow losses, however, were recorded near the north end of Walkers Prairie where streamflow directly recharges the Upper outwash aquifer. The similarity in seasonal water-level fluctuations in the Upper outwash aquifer and the Lower aquifer indicate that these systems may be fairly well connected. Land use and land cover change analysis indicates that Chamokane Creek basin has been dominated by forests with some pasture and agricultural lands with sparse residential development from the 1980s to present. Loss in forest cover represents the largest change in land cover in the basin between 1987 and 2009. This appears to be mostly due to forestry activities, especially in the northern part of the basin. Since 1987, more than 18,000 acres of evergreen forest have been logged and are at various stages of regrowth. Estimated average annual total groundwater pumpage in the basin increased from 224 million gallons per year (Mgal/yr) in 1980 to 1,330 Mgal/yr in 2007. The largest withdrawals during 2007 were to supply two fish hatcheries, with a combined total annual pumpage of about 1,150 Mgal. Annual groundwater pumpage values from 1980 through 2007 for the study area ranged from 21.1 to 28.9 Mgal/yr for domestic wells and 0.38 to 23.7 Mgal/yr for public supply. An approximate water budget for a typical year in the Chamokane Creek basin indicates that 19.6 in. of precipitation are balanced by 4.7 in. of streamflow discharge from the basin, and 14.9 in. of evapotranspiration.

Washington↗

USGS2012

Lateral and vertical channel movement and potential for bed-material movement on the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake, Montana

The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake caused a massive landslide (Madison Slide) that dammed the Madison River and formed Earthquake Lake. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers excavated a spillway through the Madison Slide to permit outflow from Earthquake Lake. In June 1970, high streamflows on the Madison River severely eroded the spillway channel and damaged the roadway embankment along U.S. Highway 287 downstream from the Madison Slide. Investigations undertaken following the 1970 flood events concluded that substantial erosion through and downstream from the spillway could be expected for streamflows greater than 3,500 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Accordingly, the owners of Hebgen Dam, upstream from Earthquake Lake, have tried to manage releases from Hebgen Lake to prevent streamflows from exceeding 3,500 ft 3 /s measured at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station 0638800 Madison River at Kirby Ranch, near Cameron, Montana. Management of flow releases from Hebgen Lake to avoid exceeding the threshold streamflow at USGS gaging station 06038800 is difficult, and has been questioned for two reasons. First, no road damage was reported downstream from the Earthquake Lake outlet in 1993, 1996, and 1997 when streamflows exceeded the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold. Second, the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold generally precludes releases of higher flows that could be beneficial to the blue-ribbon trout fishery downstream in the Madison River. In response to concerns about minimizing streamflow downstream from Earthquake Lake and the possible armoring of the spillway, the USGS, in cooperation with the Madison River Fisheries Technical Advisory Committee (MADTAC; Bureau of Land Management; Montana Department of Environmental Quality; Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks; PPL-Montana; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service - Gallatin National Forest; and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), conducted a study to determine movement of the Madison River channel downstream from Earthquake Lake and to investigate the potential for bed material movement along the same reach. The purpose of this report is to present information about the lateral and vertical movement of the Madison River from 1970 to 2006 for a 1-mile reach downstream from Earthquake Lake and for Raynolds Pass Bridge, and to provide an analysis of the potential for bed-material movement so that MADTAC can evaluate the applicability of the previously determined threshold streamflow for initiation of damaging erosion. As part of this study channel cross sections originally surveyed by the USGS in 1971 were resurveyed in 2006. Incremental channel-movement distances were determined by comparing the stream centerlines from 14 aerial photographs taken between 1970 and 2006. Depths of channel incision and aggregation were determined by comparing the 2006 and 1971 cross-section and water-surface data. Particle sizes of bed and bank materials were measured in 2006 and 2008 using the pebble-count method and sieve analyses. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model (HEC-RAS) was used to calculate mean boundary-shear stresses for various streamflows; these calculated boundary-shear stresses were compared to calculated critical-shear stresses for the bed materials to determine the potential for bed-material movement. A comparison of lateral channel movement distances with annual peak streamflows shows that streamflows higher than the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold were followed by lateral channel movement except from 1991 to 1992 and possibly from 1996 to 1997. However, it was not possible to discern whether the channel moved gradually or suddenly, or in response to one peak flow, to several peak flows, or to sustained flows. The channel moved between 2002 and 2005 even when streamflows were less than the threshold streamflow of 3,500 ft 3 /s. Comparisons of cross sections and aerial photographs show that the channel has moved laterally and incised and aggraded to varying degrees. The channel has developed meander bends and has incised as much as 5–12 feet (ft) through the upstream part of the Madison Slide (cross sections 1400–800). Near cross section 800, the stream has eroded into the steep right bank between the stream and the road where fill was mechanically placed after 1970. Channel movement also was noted downstream from the Madison Slide. Near Raynolds Pass Bridge, about 3 miles (mi) downstream from Earthquake Lake, elevations across the channel have changed by -1.4 ft to +1.9 ft, but these changes were local in nature and could represent a few rocks or depressions in the bed. Overall, it does not appear that the materials eroded from the Madison Slide are causing aggradation in the subreach near the Raynolds Pass Bridge. Comparisons of critical shear stresses to mean boundary-shear stresses indicate that the D50 particle sizes (median size) along the right side of the bed between cross sections 400 and 500 and along the right side of the bed between cross sections 1300 and 1400 could move at the threshold streamflow. In contrast, most of the D84 particle sizes at those two locations probably will not move at the threshold streamflow. This lack of movement for the larger particles at the threshold streamflow could lead to further armoring of the bed as the D50 and smaller-sized particles are removed from the bed and transported downstream. The Shields parameter values from 0.04 to 0.08 that were used to calculate critical shear stresses could be conservative for a high-gradient stream such as the Madison. A higher, less conservative, Shields parameter would result in higher critical shear stresses, meaning that higher streamflows would be required to move material than those reported herein. In addition, because materials in the channel thalweg are exposed to higher boundary-shear stresses than the materials along the sides of the channel, larger, more erosion-resistant materials likely exist in the deeper parts of the channel where high-flow depths and velocities prevented sediment sampling. Movement of these materials might require higher critical shear stresses than estimated in this report. Characterization of sediment sizes in the center of the stream and observation of bed-material movement for a range of streamflows could provide information to help refine the Shields parameter and critical-shear stress estimates for bed materials in the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake. Furthermore, resurveying cross sections and water-surface elevations more frequently (either annually or after high streamflows) could better define the relation between streamflow and lateral and vertical channel movement.

Montana↗

USGS2013

Water quality, streamflow conditions, and annual flow-duration curves for streams of the San Juan–Chama Project, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, 1935-2010

The Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority supplements the municipal water supply for the Albuquerque metropolitan area, in central New Mexico, with water diverted from the Rio Grande. Water diverted from the Rio Grande for municipal use is derived from the San Juan–Chama Project, which delivers water from streams in the southern San Juan Mountains in the Colorado River Basin in southern Colorado to the Rio Chama watershed and the Rio Grande Basin in northern New Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, has compiled historical streamflow and water-quality data and collected new water-quality data to characterize the water quality and streamflow conditions and annual flow variability, as characterized by annual flow-duration curves, of streams of the San Juan–Chama Project. Nonparametric statistical methods were applied to calculate annual and monthly summary statistics of streamflow, trends in streamflow conditions were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall trend test, and annual variation in streamflow conditions was evaluated with annual flow-duration curves. The study area is located in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado and includes the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River, tributaries of the San Juan River in the Colorado River Basin located in the southern San Juan Mountains, and Willow Creek and Horse Lake Creek, tributaries of the Rio Chama in the Rio Grande Basin. The quality of water in the streams in the study area generally varied by watershed on the basis of the underlying geology and the volume and source of the streamflow. Water from the Rio Blanco and Little Navajo River watersheds, primarily underlain by volcanic deposits, volcaniclastic sediments and landslide deposits derived from these materials, was compositionally similar and had low specific-conductance values relative to the other streams in the study area. Water from the Navajo River, Horse Lake Creek, and Willow Creek watersheds, which are underlain mostly by Cretaceous-aged marine shale, was compositionally similar and had large concentrations of sulfate relative to the other streams in the study area, though the water from the Navajo River had lower specific-conductance values than did the water from Horse Lake Creek above Heron Reservoir and Willow Creek above Azotea Creek. Generally, surface-water quality varied with streamflow conditions throughout the year. Streamflow in spring and summer is generally a mixture of base flow (the component of streamflow derived from groundwater discharged to the stream channel) diluted with runoff from snowmelt and precipitation events, whereas streamflow in fall and winter is generally solely base flow. Major- and trace-element concentrations in the streams sampled were lower than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary and secondary drinking-water standards and New Mexico Environment Department surface-water standards for the streams. In general, years with increased annual discharge, compared to years with decreased annual discharge, had a smaller percentage of discharge in March, a larger percentage of discharge in June, an interval of discharge derived from snowmelt runoff that occurred later in the year, and a larger discharge in June. Additionally, years with increased annual discharge generally had a longer duration of runoff, and the streamflow indicators occurred at dates later in the year than the years with less snowmelt runoff. Additionally, the seasonal distribution of streamflow was more strongly controlled by the change in the amount of annual discharge than by changes in streamflow over time. The variation of streamflow conditions over time at one streamflow-gaging station in the study area, Navajo River at Banded Peak Ranch, was not significantly monotonic over the period of record with a Kendall’s tau of 0.0426 and with a p-value of 0.5938 for 1937 to 2009 (a trend was considered statistically significant at a p-value ≤ 0.05). There was a relation, however, such that annual discharge was generally lower than the median during a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation interval and higher than the median during a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation interval. Streamflow conditions at Navajo River at Banded Peak Ranch varied nonmonotonically over time and were likely a function of complex climate pattern interactions. Similarly, the monthly distribution of streamflow varied nonmonotonically over time and was likely a function of complex climate pattern interactions that cause variation over time. Study results indicated that the median of the sum of the streamflow available above the minimum monthly bypass requirement from Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River was 126,240 acre-feet. The results also indicated that diversion of water for the San Juan–Chama Project has been possible for most months of most years.

Colorado;New Mexico↗

USGS2015

Geomorphic, flood, and groundwater-flow characteristics of Bayfield Peninsula streams, Wisconsin, and implications for brook-trout habitat

In 2002–03, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study of the geomorphic, flood, and groundwater-flow characteristics of five Bayfield Peninsula streams, Wisconsin (Cranberry River, Bark River, Raspberry River, Sioux River, and Whittlesey Creek) to determine the physical limitations for brook-trout habitat. The goals of the study were threefold: (1) to describe geomorphic characteristics and processes, (2) to determine how land-cover characteristics affect flood peaks, and (3) to determine how regional groundwater flow patterns affect base flow. The geomorphic characterization consisted of analyses of historical aerial photographs and General Land Office Survey notes, observations from helicopter video footage, surveys of valley cross sections, and coring. Sources of sediment were identified from the helicopter video and field surveys, and past erosion-control techniques were evaluated. Geomorphic processes, such as runoff sediment erosion, transport, and deposition, are driven by channel location within the drainage network, texture of glacial deposits, and proximity to postglacial lake shorelines; these processes have historically increased because of decreases in upland forest cover and channel roughness. Sources of sediment for all studied streams mainly came from bank, terrace, or bluff erosion along main stem reaches and along feeder tributaries that bisect main-stem entrenched valley sides. Bluff, terrace, and bank erosion were the major sources of sediment to Whittlesey Creek and the Sioux River. No active bluff erosion was observed on the Cranberry River or the Bark River but anecdotal information suggests that landslides occasionally happen on the Cranberry River. For the Bark River, sources of sediment were somewhat evenly divided among road crossings (bridges, culverts, and unimproved forest lanes), terrace erosion, bank erosion, and incision along upper main stems and feeder channels along valley sides. Evaluation of past erosion-control techniques indicated that bluffs were stabilized by a combination of artificial hardening and bioengineering of the bluff base and reducing mass wasting of the tops of the bluffs. Flood hydrographs for the Cranberry River were simulated for four land-cover scenarios—late 20th century (1992–93), presettlement (before 1870), peak agriculture (1928), and developed (25 percent urban). Results were compared to previous simulations of flood peaks for Whittlesey Creek and for North Fish Creek (southern adjacent basin to Whittlesey Creek). Even though most uplands are presently forested, flood peaks simulated for 1992–93 were 1.5 to 2 times larger than presettlement flood peaks. The increased flood peaks caused (1) increased incision along upper main stems and tributaries that bisect entrenched valley sides, (2) bluff and terrace erosion along reaches with entrenched valleys, (3) overbank deposition and bar formation in middle and lower main stems, and (4) aggradation in mouth areas. A base-flow survey was conducted and a groundwater-flow model was developed for the Bayfield Peninsula to delineate groundwater contributing areas. A deep aquifer system, which includes thick deposits of sand and the upper part of the bedrock, is recharged through the permeable sands in the center of the peninsula. Base flow is unevenly distributed among the Bayfield streams and depends on the amount of channel incision and the proximity of the channels to the recharge area and coarse outwash deposits. Groundwater contributing areas for the five streams do not coincide with surface-water-contributing areas. About 89 percent of total recharge to the deep aquifer system discharges to Bayfield streams; the remaining 11 percent directly discharges to Lake Superior. Historical land-cover changes have had negligible effects on groundwater-flow from the deep aquifer system. Available brook-trout habitat is dependent on the locations of groundwater upwellings, the sizes of flood peaks, and sediment loads. Management practices that focus on reducing or slowing runoff from upland areas and increasing channel roughness have potential to reduce flood peaks, erosion, and sedimentation and improve brook-trout habitat in all Bayfield Peninsula streams.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

Most nuclear powerplants in the United States are near rivers, large lakes, or oceans. As evident from the Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, disaster of 2011, these water bodies pose inundation threats. Geologic records can extend knowledge of rare hazards from flooding, storm surges, and tsunamis. This knowledge can aid in assessing the safety of critical structures such as dams and energy plants, for which even remotely possible hazards are pertinent. Quantitative analysis of inundation from geologic records perhaps is most developed for and applied to riverine flood hazards, but because of recent natural disasters, geologic investigations also are now used widely for understanding tsunami hazards and coastal storm surges. Layered sedimentary deposits commonly give the most complete geologic record of large floods, storm surges, and tsunamis. Sedimentary layers may be preserved for hundreds or thousands of years in suitable depositional environments, thereby providing an archive of rare, high-magnitude events. All inundation hazards discussed in this report—riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges—have had long records extracted from sedimentary sequences, many specifically for hazard assessment. Geologic records commonly are imprecise, so most hazard assessments benefit from evaluation of many sites and rigorous uncertainty assessment. Despite uncertainties, geologic records commonly can improve knowledge of the types and magnitudes of hazards threatening specific sites or regions. New statistical tools and approaches can efficiently incorporate geologic information into frequency assessments. These tools are most developed for riverine flood hazards, but are to some degree transferable to other episodic natural phenomena such as tsunamis and storm surges. Even with these efficient statistical approaches for examining geologic records, systematic landscape changes may reduce the applicability of retrospective assessments. These non-stationarity issues (such as climate change, sea‑level rise, land-use, dams and flow regulation) may all affect the validity of using past experience—no matter how complete the record—to assess future likelihoods. These issues require site-specific consideration for nearly all hazard assessments drawn from geologic evidence. A screening of the 104 nuclear powerplants in the United States licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (at 64 sites) indicates several sites for which paleoflood studies likely would provide additional flood-frequency information. Two sites—Duane Arnold, Iowa, on the Cedar River; and David-Besse, Ohio, on the Toussaint River—have geologic conditions suitable for creating and preserving stratigraphic records of flooding and few upstream dams that may complicate flood-frequency analysis. One site—Crystal River, Florida1, on the Withlacoochee River and only 4 kilometers from the coast—has high potential as a candidate for assessing riverine and marine inundation hazards. Several sites on the Mississippi River have high geologic potential, but upstream dams almost certainly now regulate peak flows. Nevertheless, studies on the Mississippi River to evaluate long-term flood frequency may provide results applicable to a wide spectrum of regional hazard issues. Several sites in the southeastern United States have high geologic potential, and studies at these sites also may be helpful in evaluating hazards from outburst floods from landslide dams (river blockages formed by mass movements), which may be a regional hazard. For all these sites, closer investigation and field reconnaissance would be needed to confirm suitable deposits and settings for a complete paleoflood analysis. Similar screenings may help identify high-potential sites for geologic investigations of tsunami and storm-surge hazards.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Foreword The 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done. With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk. The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake? The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by providing the scientific, engineering, and economic and social science inputs for use in exercises and planning well into the future. As HayWired volumes are published, they will be made available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 .

California↗

USGS2017

The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of the Earth’s surface that the fault rupture and shaking will activate.

California↗

USGS2018

The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications is the second volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after a magnitude-7 earthquake (mainshock) on the Hayward Fault and its aftershocks. Analyses in this volume suggest that (1) 800 deaths and 16,000 nonfatal injuries result from shaking alone, plus property and direct business interruption losses of more than $ 82 billion from shaking, liquefaction, and landslides; (2) the building code is designed to protect lives, but even if all buildings in the region complied with current building codes, 0.4 percent could collapse, 5 percent could be unsafe to occupy, and 19 percent could have restricted use; (3) people expect, prefer, and would be willing to pay for greater resilience of buildings; (4) more than 22,000 people could require extrication from stalled elevators, and more than 2,400 people could require rescue from collapsed buildings; (5) the average east-bay resident could lose water service for 6 weeks, some for as long as 6 months; (6) older steel-frame high-rise office buildings and new reinforced-concrete residential buildings in downtown San Francisco and Oakland could be unusable for as long as 10 months; (7) about 450 large fires could result in a loss of residential and commercial building floor area equivalent to more than 52,000 single-family homes and cause property (building and content) losses approaching $30 billion; and (8) combining earthquake early warning (ShakeAlert) with “drop, cover, and hold on” actions could prevent as many as 1,500 nonfatal injuries out of 18,000 total estimated nonfatal injuries from shaking and liquefaction hazards.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

California’s exposure to volcanic hazards

The potential for damaging earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, and wildfires is widely recognized in California. The same cannot be said for volcanic eruptions, despite the fact that they occur in the state about as frequently as the largest earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. At least ten eruptions have taken place in the past 1,000 years, and future volcanic eruptions are inevitable. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) national volcanic threat assessment identifies eight young volcanic areas in California as moderate, high, or very high threat. Of the eight volcanic areas that exist in California, molten rock resides beneath at least seven of these—Medicine Lake volcano, Mount Shasta, Lassen Volcanic Center, Clear Lake volcanic field, the Long Valley volcanic region, Coso volcanic field, and Salton Buttes—and are therefore considered “active” volcanoes producing volcanic earthquakes, toxic gas emissions, hot springs, geothermal systems, and (or) ground movement. The USGS California Volcano Observatory in Menlo Park, California, monitors these potentially hazardous volcanoes to help communities and government authorities understand, prepare for, and respond to volcanic activity. Although volcanic activity can sometimes be forecast, eruptions, like earthquakes or tsunamis, cannot be prevented. Understanding the hazards and identifying what and who is in harm’s way is the first step in mitigating volcanic risk and building community resilience to volcanic hazards. This report, which was prepared in collaboration with the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, provides a broad perspective on the state’s exposure to volcanic hazards by integrating volcanic hazard information with geospatial data on at-risk populations, infrastructure, and resources. This information is intended to prompt site- and sector-specific vulnerability analyses and preparation of hazard mitigation and response plans.

California↗

USGS2020

2017 Volcanic activity in Alaska—Summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Alaska Volcano Observatory responded to eruptions, significant and minor volcanic unrest, and seismic events at 16 volcanic centers in Alaska during 2017. The most notable volcanic activity consisted of a major eruption at Bogoslof Island, continuing intermittent dome growth and ash eruptions from Mount Cleveland, the end of the Pavlof Volcano eruption, volcanic unrest at Shishaldin Volcano, and significant earthquake activity at Tanaga and Great Sitkin Islands. This report also documents reports of degassing at Redoubt Volcano, Makushin Volcano, Mount Gareloi, and Kiska Volcano, anomalous seismicity at Mount Spurr, Augustine Volcano, Akutan Peak, and Makushin Volcano, landslides at Iliamna Volcano, resuspended ash from the 1912 Novarupta-Katmai eruption, and continuing inflation at Okmok Caldera.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

2018 Volcanic activity in Alaska—Summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Alaska Volcano Observatory responded to eruptions, considerable and minor volcanic unrest, and seismic events at 15 volcanic centers in Alaska during 2018. The most notable volcanic activity came from Mount Cleveland, which had continuing intermittent dome growth and ash eruptions, and Mount Veniaminof, Great Sitkin Volcano, and Semisopochnoi Island, the three of which had minor eruptions. This report also documents landslides at Iliamna Volcano; resuspended ash from the 1912 Novarupta-Katmai eruption; anomalous seismicity and heightened degassing at Pavlof Volcano; seismic unrest at Shishaldin Volcano; long-term inflation at Westdahl volcano, Akutan Volcano, and Mount Okmok; steam plumes, anomalous seismicity, and anomalous gas measurements at Makushin Volcano; elevated seismicity at Mount Gareloi; seismic signals possibly related to icequakes at Mount Spurr; and new mud flows at Shrub mud volcano.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Ground deformation and gravity for volcano monitoring

Introduction When magma accumulates or migrates, it can cause pressurization and related ground deformation. Characterization of surface deformation provides important constraints on the potential for future volcanic activity, especially in combination with seismic activity, gas emissions, and other indicators. A wide variety of techniques and instrument types have been applied to the study of ground deformation at volcanoes (sidebar, p. 2; Dzurisin, 2000, 2003, 2007). Geodetic instruments include continuously recording Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS; of which the United States’ Global Positioning System is one example) stations (fig. D1), borehole tiltmeters, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements (from satellites, occupied and unoccupied aircraft systems, and ground-based sensors). Additional geodetic measurements like continuous- and survey-mode gravity (fig. D2) can contribute substantially to interpreting these data. Borehole strainmeters (see chapter K , this volume, by Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024) also have outstanding utility for monitoring deformation, although because of cost and permitting challenges, we do not include them as part of standard volcano monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. Still other techniques like light detection and ranging (lidar), structure from motion, and optical satellite data can be used to derive gross topographic changes, which can be used to map volcanic deposits, infer eruption rates, and gain insights into the source processes associated with eruptive activity (see chapter G , this volume, on tracking surface changes caused by volcanic activity; Orr and others, 2024). Experience has shown that no single geodetic monitoring technique is adequate to detect and track the entire range of ground-motion patterns that occur at volcanoes, primarily because of the temporal and spatial diversity of volcano deformation (fig. D3). Similarly, the magnitude of surface deformation varies widely. Geodetic monitoring strategies should therefore include multiple techniques and instrument types to cover a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In identifying recommendations for geodetic instrumentation for volcano monitoring networks, we attempted to maximize the diversity of instrument types to measure the full range of deformation signals and minimize their expense and number; thus, we do not include several well-known deformation-monitoring techniques in our recommendations. Extensometers, for example, measure strains over distances of a few meters and have an excellent record of success in detecting changes in preeruptive localized ground motion across existing cracks, including at Mount St. Helens, Washington (Iwatsubo and others, 1992), and Piton de la Fournaise, Réunion Island (Peltier and others, 2006). Despite being relatively inexpensive, extensometers are best used primarily when localized ground displacements (for example, ground cracks) need to be tracked, and are not necessary at all volcanoes. In considering volcano deformation monitoring strategies, two complicating factors are deserving of special attention. First, not all deformation is driven by subsurface magmatic activity—for example, at many large stratovolcanoes (for example, Mount Rainier), flank collapses and landslides are significant geologic hazards (Reid and others, 2001) that may occur even in the absence of magmatic activity. Monitoring the stability of volcanoes is thus another critical application of geodetic monitoring networks to inform hazard assessment. One of the most famous examples of edifice instability is the large flank collapse that initiated the May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount St. Helens. Deformation monitoring had detected a bulge on the north flank of the mountain in April 1980 that was expanding by several meters per day (Lipman and others, 1981). Given that flank collapses can happen at any time during a period of volcanic unrest (or even outside a period of unrest), the capability to assess edifice stability is critical. Second, although volcanoes are commonly treated as idealized structures that erupt from single points, like centralvent stratovolcanoes, many are characterized by long rift zones from which eruptions may originate, and distributed volcanic fields are characterized by broadly spaced vents. For example, linear dikes are common at Kīlauea, Mauna Loa, and between Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake in California. At Kīlauea, one of these linear dikes emerged more than 40 kilometers (km) away from the summit of the volcano during the lower East Rift Zone eruption in 2018. Other volcanic fields, like Lassen volcanic center, California, or the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, have many small vents spread over a wide area. Although the instrumentation guidelines presented in this chapter remain phrased for central-vent volcanoes, they should be modified as needed in the context of the eruptive characteristics of each individual volcanic system. Spatial analysis of geodetic network coverage could help to ensure adequate instrumentation in areas where volcanism can occur over a broad area as opposed to a central vent. As an example, consider the adjacent volcanoes Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake. If station locations are chosen based only on the distance from the centers of the volcanoes, then any geodetic anomalies between the two volcanoes—an area of potential volcanism as indicated by the presence of volcanic features—may remain undetected by ground-based instrumentation. The spatial analysis is accomplished via a grid of pressure point sources (Mogi, 1958) evenly distributed across the map area, at a depth of 5 km in this example (fig. D4). Each source is inflated until predicted deformations exceed the GNSS white noise uncertainty estimates at one site (Langbein, 2017; Murray and Svarc, 2017). This volume of detectable magma provides a measure of the quality of the coverage (fig. D4). The results indicate that, as of 2022, there is a large area between Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcano with existing mapped dikes in which a substantial amount of magma could intrude without being detected geodetically. Applying this style of analysis to individual volcanic systems can provide a guide for designing network geometry given the expected locations of future eruptions.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Tracking surface changes caused by volcanic activity

Introduction Dynamic volcanic landscapes produce various changes at the surface of volcanic edifices. For example, rising magma can induce thermal emissions, formation of ground cracks, and variations in glacier and edifice morphology; volcanic deposits from eruptions can transform the land surface with tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, lava flows and domes, and lahars; and geomorphic changes from landslides and lahars can occur in the absence of unrest or eruption. The best way to detect these changes is with imagery obtained via satellite, aircraft (including unoccupied aircraft systems, or UAS), and ground-based imaging. Rapid advances in imaging technologies have been leveraged by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program to improve the ability to monitor volcanoes. To this end, the guidance outlined here provides a framework for tracking volcanic unrest and the emplacement and evolution of volcanic deposits, further elucidating the processes associated with volcanic eruptions. The techniques currently used include (1) various telemetered and non-telemetered cameras, (2) high-resolution ground-based optical (visible to short-wave infrared wavelengths) and thermal infrared photography, (3) satellite and airborne thermal, optical, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, and (4) light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys from airborne and ground-based platforms. Given that similar or overlapping techniques are applied to meet the capabilities listed in this chapter, we first provide an overview of remote sensing techniques. The use of UAS in monitoring surface change is briefly mentioned in this chapter and described in more detail in the dedicated UAS chapter ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–L, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062l.">chapter L , this volume; Diefenbach, 2024).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Using the D-Claw software package to model lahars in the Middle Fork Nooksack River drainage and beyond, Mount Baker, Washington

Lahars, or volcanic mudflows, are the most hazardous eruption-related phenomena that will affect communities living along rivers that originate on Mount Baker. In the past 15,000 years, the largest lahars from Mount Baker have affected the Middle Fork Nooksack River drainage and beyond. Here we use the physics-based D-Claw software package to model nine lahar scenarios that are initiated as water-saturated landslides between Sherman Crater and the Roman Wall on the Mount Baker edifice and flow down the Middle Fork Nooksack River. The scenarios range in volume from 1 to 260 million cubic meters and have an initial hydraulic permeability from 10 −12 to 10 −10 meters squared. Model output includes data such as flow depth, velocity, runout distance, area inundated, arrival time, and sediment concentration as well as information that allows scientists to calculate other important hydrologic characteristics such as lahar discharge. These data are important to officials who have the responsibility to plan for, or take mitigation measures against, future Mount Baker lahars. To check the validity of the D-Claw results, we compare the scenarios to known geologic information. We also compare D-Claw results with empirical models that have been used in the past to determine potential inundation areas, runout distances, and arrival times. These comparisons highlight similarities and differences between empirical and physics-based models. We also present D-Claw scenario-based animations to help scientists, officials, and lay people alike to visualize how future lahars could affect communities.

Washington↗

USGS2014

The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a time map) throughout a hazard zone. Model results provide a general, static view of the evacuation landscape at different pedestrian travel speeds and can be used to identify areas outside the reach of naturally occurring high ground. In addition, data on the size and location of different populations within the hazard zone can be integrated with travel-time maps to create tables and graphs of at-risk population counts as a function of travel time to safety. As a decision-support tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst provides the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of various vertical-evacuation structures within a study area, both through time maps of the modeled travel-time landscape with a potential structure in place and through comparisons of population counts within reach of safety. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is designed for use by researchers examining the pedestrian-evacuation potential of an at-risk community. In communities where modeled evacuation times exceed the event (for example, tsunami wave) arrival time, researchers can use the software with emergency managers to assess the area and population served by potential vertical-evacuation options. By automating and managing the modeling process, the software allows researchers to concentrate efforts on providing crucial and timely information on community vulnerability to sudden-onset hazards.

Techniques and Methods↗