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Results for “Geochronology, Thermochronology and Time Scale Research”

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USGS2024

Predictions of groundwater PFAS occurrence at drinking water supply depths in the United States

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), known colloquially as “forever chemicals”, have been associated with adverse human health effects and have contaminated drinking water supplies across the United States owing to their long-term and widespread use. People in the United States may unknowingly be drinking water that contains PFAS because of a lack of systematic analysis, particularly in domestic water supplies. We present an extreme gradient boosting model for predicting the occurrence of PFAS in groundwater at the depths of drinking water supply for the conterminous United States. Our model results indicate that 71 to 95 million people in the conterminous United States potentially rely on groundwater with detectable concentrations of PFAS for their drinking-water supplies prior to any treatment.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2024

Deep syntectonic burial of the Anthracite belt, Eastern Pennsylvania

Fluid inclusion microthermometry and Raman spectroscopy of fluid inclusions in quartz veins from the Pennsylvanian rocks of the Anthracite belt, eastern Pennsylvania support a deep burial model of coalification in favor of focused orogenic hot fluid flow. High-temperature (250 to 255 °C) trapping of CH 4 ± CO 2 saturated aqueous fluids and CH 4 ± CO 2 inclusions indicate fluid trapping at depths of 11.5 to 13.4 km under a cover of Pennsylvanian to Permian(?) syntectonic load. In the folded rocks to the south of the Anthracite belt, CH 4 ± CO 2 fluid inclusions indicate a sediment load that was up to 16.3 km thick. Re -equilibrated aqueous fluid inclusions from veins in Silurian through Devonian rocks give the same range of trapping conditions but a wide range of fluid salinities suggesting that folding, fracturing, and meteoric recharge resulted in the intermixing of fluids from throughout the stratigraphic succession.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2026

Relating glassy rind thicknesses to ambient air temperatures at the Lost Jim flow field in the Imuruk Lake volcanic field, Alaska

The Lost Jim flow field, in the Imuruk Lake volcanic field, Alaska, extends west ~34 km from a single vent, crossing subarctic tundra and currently touches several lakes and streams. The weighted mean of five 36Cl cosmogenic exposure ages from the Lost Jim pāhoehoe flow is 7.73 ± 0.37 ka, indicating this eruption occurred substantially after the eruption of the underlying Camille flow, which was emplaced at 39.7 ± 1.3 ka. Paleoclimate records indicate the period when the Lost Jim flow field was emplaced was after deglaciation, and the climate was similar to today. We propose that the emplacement of lava in these cold subarctic conditions can lead to faster cooling of the lava surface compared to lava emplaced in warmer locations such as mid- latitude cold deserts. Glass abundance in the outermost rinds at the Lost Jim flow field was on average 74 % with 6.4 mm thick rims, compared to 60 % with 2.9 mm rims for cold mid-latitude desert samples. We interpret increased glass content as a proxy for rapid cooling likely occurring partly during winter. Glassiness values varied less across vent, margin, and mid-flow locations when compared to the mid-latitude flows suggesting the Lost Jim flow field was broadly impacted by the subarctic climate as opposed to responding to local microclimates. Our results indicate that lava glassiness may be a useful environmental indicator of cooler (in this case subarctic) conditions.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Temperate wetlands lose climate-cooling capacity under warming

Temperate inland wetlands have long been viewed as climate regulators, with sustained CO₂ sequestration offsetting continuous CH₄ emissions over centennial–millennial timescales. However, the net climatic effect of these opposing fluxes remains uncertain under anthropogenic warming as they differ in both magnitude and atmospheric lifetime. We combine 19,000 CH₄ chamber measurements from 202 temperate inland wetlands with carbon burial rates from 16 dated sediment cores in North America’s Prairie Pothole Region to estimate greenhouse gas dynamics over two centuries. Here we show that CH₄ emissions rise by ~1.39 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ over the historical period and are projected to approach 950 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ under high-forcing scenarios by 2100, while CO₂ sequestration is expected to decline by ~0.3 kg CO₂ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, driving a shift toward persistent net CO₂-equivalent source behaviour and a weakening of the long-term cooling effect that wetlands have provided under natural conditions.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

USGS2025

Simulated hydrologic responses to proposed wastewater-returnflow scenarios in Falmouth, Massachusetts

The Cape Cod aquifer is the sole source of drinking water for communities on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, including the Town of Falmouth, where the aquifer is currently threatened by contamination from septic-system-derived nitrogen. To address this problem, the Town is proposing to sewer areas of Falmouth, treat the wastewater at the Town’s Main Wastewater Treatment Facility (a nitrogen removing/tertiary treatment facility), and discharge the treated wastewater to an ocean outfall pipe in Nantucket Sound. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Falmouth, updated a three-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow model to represent current (defined as 2019–23) average hydrologic conditions and to simulate the long-term average freshwater hydrologic response to two wastewater-return-flow scenarios. Scenario 1 involves the sewering of all properties south of Route 28 in Falmouth, which approximates the Town’s possible sewer expansion over the next 20–30 years. Scenario 2 involves sewering of all properties in Falmouth to demonstrate the maximum potential effect of sewering on the aquifer. Overall, the simulated hydrologic response of water-table altitudes and streamflow in both scenarios was relatively small compared to fluctuations from natural recharge. In scenario 1, the water-table altitude decreased by about 0.1 feet south of Route 28, where the conversion to municipal sewers removed wastewater-return flow from onsite septic systems. The water-table altitude decreased by about 0.1–0.2 feet over a larger area in Falmouth under town-wide sewering in scenario 2. The greatest decrease in water-table altitude in both scenarios occurred near the Main Wastewater Treatment Facility, with a decrease of about 1.1 feet in scenario 1 and about 1.3 feet in scenario 2. Simulated decreases in streamflow also were estimated for six selected streams in Falmouth and Mashpee. In both scenarios, the largest simulated decreases in streamflow were at the Coonamessett River, which is the closest stream to the Main Wastewater Treatment Facility. In scenario 1, the average annual decrease in flow at the Coonamessett River was 0.1 cubic feet per second, a 1.1 percent decrease from current (2019–23) conditions. In scenario 2, streamflow at the Coonamessett River decreased by 0.6 cubic feet per second, a 5.4 percent decrease from current (2019–23) conditions.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

Evaluation of daily stream temperature predictions (1979-2021) across the contiguous United States using a spatiotemporal aware machine learning algorithm

Stream temperature controls a variety of physical and biological processes that affect ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. We used 42 years (1979–2021) of data to predict daily summary statistics of stream temperature across >50,000 stream reaches in the contiguous United States using a recurrent graph convolution network. We comprehensively documented the performance – both across all reaches and by stream type (e.g., reservoir or groundwater influence) – as a baseline for future improvement. The model showed reach-level RMSE of <2 °C with 90 % prediction intervals that contain 90.7 % of observations. We also assessed how the model captured variability in ecologically relevant metrics (e.g., R 2 for annual 7-day maximum = 0.76; R 2 for days exceeding 25 °C = 0.75). This model does not outperform state-of-the-art machine learning efforts (e.g., RMSE ≤1.5 °C) due to a limited input set but does provide the most spatially complete modeling to date to support water availability assessments.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2026

GST-1: A high-resolution global sediment thickness model

Global Sediment Thickness 1 (GST-1) is a high-resolution sedimentary thickness model calculated on a 0.125° x 0.125° grid. It modifies the sediment thickness of the 1° x 1° Earth Crustal Model 1 (ECM1) by means of 3D inversions of free air gravity anomalies. GST-1 is calculated by performing structural inversions on high-density contrasts across two crustal boundaries: the sediment – basement interface and the crystalline crust – upper mantle interface. The inversions are calculated in each of ten overlapping 3D models that span the globe. These ten models are merged to obtain the GST-1 global model, providing an eight-fold increase in lateral spatial resolution in comparison with ECM1 and CRUST 1.0. Our sediment thickness model exploits the nearly continuous sampling of gravity data when compared to the irregular, sparse sampling of seismic refraction data. Sediment thickness values in GST-1 are in excellent agreement with independently derived cross sections from well-studied sedimentary basins, and within expected resolution limits of seismic refraction data. GST-1 offers a robust, high resolution global model of sedimentary thickness to support studies of sedimentary basins.

Tectonophysics↗

USGS2024

Slip rate for the Rose Canyon fault through San Diego, California, based on analysis of GPS data: Evidence for a potential Rose Canyon–San Miguel-Vallecitos fault connection?

The Rose Canyon fault is the southern extension of the larger Newport–Inglewood–Rose Canyon fault system, which represents a major structural boundary in the Inner Continental Borderland (ICB) offshore of southern California. Ten to fifteen percent of total plate boundary motion in southern California is thought to be accommodated by the faults of the ICB, but the exact distribution of slip is uncertain. With an onshore segment, the Rose Canyon fault offers an opportunity to measure the slip rate using traditional geodetic methods. In this study, we use Global Positioning System (GPS) surface velocities from a combined campaign and continuous GPS network to constrain elastic models of the Rose Canyon fault. We then compare the observed surface velocities with proposed conceptual models of regional fault connections that facilitate the transfer of slip into the Rose Canyon fault to assess how well the observations are explained by the models. The results of elastic half‐space models suggest that the Rose Canyon fault may be slipping toward the higher end of geologic estimates, with the preferred model indicating a slip rate of 2.4 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Although limited in terms of near‐fault benchmarks, we find an improved model fit using an asymmetrical elastic half‐space model and a higher slip rate, suggesting a potential rheological contrast across the Rose Canyon fault, similar to observations from the northern Newport–Inglewood fault segments. Observed GPS surface velocities, background seismicity, and gravity anomalies south of San Diego Bay point toward a more easterly trace for the Rose Canyon fault, suggesting a possible connection with the San Miguel–Vallecitos fault system. Such a connection could increase the potential rupture lengths of future earthquakes and have important consequences for regional seismic hazards.

California↗

USGS2026

New constraints on northeast Seattle basin structure from converted seismic waves

The Seattle basin is a deep sedimentary basin in the Seattle–Bellevue, Washington metropolitan area within the Puget Lowland of Washington State. We determine the structure of a portion of the basin and the underlying basement using analysis of P waves converted from direct S incident from below. A deep local crustal event beneath Monroe, about 35 km northeast of Seattle, was recorded by a 100‐station nodal array deployed in 2019. The event produced a variety of coherent seismic phases, including converted waves from the sediment—basement boundary, internal structure within the basin, and additional crustal discontinuities. Using observed Sp converted waves, we apply an adjoint‐based full waveform inversion (FWI) method to determine the amplitude and extent of seismic discontinuities at depth. We find the strongest source of converted waves for this event lies ∼6 to 7 km depth below northern Lake Washington, interpreted to be the local depth to basement rock. The newly imaged shallow basement structure may be part of a deformation zone associated with the Siletzia eastern boundary. Our results highlight the utility of converted seismic waves recorded by a dense array, combined with an FWI method, to illuminate crustal structure.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Uncertainty in ground-motion-to-intensity conversions significantly affects earthquake early warning alert regions

We examine how the choice of ground‐motion‐to‐intensity conversion equations (GMICEs) in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems affects resulting alert regions. We find that existing GMICEs can underestimate observed shaking at short rupture distances or overestimate the extent of low‐intensity shaking. Updated GMICEs that remove these biases would improve the accuracy of alert regions for the ShakeAlert EEW system for the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert uses ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs), which calculate spatial distributions of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) from earthquake source estimates, combined with GMICEs to translate GMPE output into modified Mercalli intensity (MMI). We find significant epistemic uncertainty in alert distances; near‐source MMI estimates from different GMICEs can differ by over 1 MMI unit, and MMI extents used for public EEW alerts can differ by hundreds of kilometers for larger magnitude earthquakes ( M ∼6.5+). We use a catalog of “Did You Feel It?” shaking reports to evaluate how well GMICEs predict observed shaking. Our preferred GMICE is the one that computes MMI using PGV for high intensities and transitions to using PGA for nondamaging intensities. These results motivate updating GMICE relationships more generally, including in ShakeMap applications.

The Seismic Record↗

USGS2026

Importance of fish in the diet of Adélie penguins across multiple life stages

Over recent decades, the Adélie penguin ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) population has grown across most of its range, the exception being the northern coast of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In the Ross Sea, the very large Cape Crozier colony grew to reach ~9% of the global population. Demographic factors driving the Cape Crozier trend have yet to be identified. However, low chick fledging mass - a negative influence in the northern WAP where the diet is mostly less-energy-dense krill - is not showing an effect in the Cape Crozier colony. Previously, we hypothesized that Cape Crozier fledglings, and post-breeding adults, must be finding sufficient higher-quality prey once free of the prey-depleted colony foraging area, with subsequent higher survival. Here we explore penguin diet within and outside the colony foraging area using stable isotope analysis (SIA) of feathers: those grown by post-breeding adults outside the foraging area, prior to moult, compared to those of near-fledged chicks raised on meals obtained within the foraging area. Second, we explore whether a major difference occurs between breeding and post-breeding diet of adults from a small, nearby colony (Cape Royds) that exploits a smaller, little-depleted preyscape. Finally, we compare the results to SIA analyses published by others to explore whether the pre-moult diet of Ross Island adults, mostly foraging within the north-eastern Ross Sea, compares with that of adults nesting in the southern WAP (Bellingshausen Sea coast). At the latter, populations are not decreasing, with diet containing an appreciable contribution of fish. The results confirmed that fish contributed greatly to chick diets at both Ross Island colonies (δ 15 N 10.6–11.4). Once adults were released from central-place foraging, SIA levels (δ 15 N 9.7–12.9) were similar to those of the southern WAP. Foraging on energy-dense fish in coastal Antarctic waters could be one reason Adélie penguins are among the most abundant and therefore most ecologically successful penguin species.

Antarctic Science↗

USGS2025

Observations of tear-drinking by lepidopterans on moose ( Alces alces americana ) in northeastern North America

Lepidoptera have long been known to feed on the tears of vertebrates as a presumed source of minerals or nutrients. While this unusual behavior has been observed in a variety of species, only a single previous record has been documented outside of the tropics. Here, we present the first documentation of moths visiting the eyes of a bull moose ( Alces americanus americanus ), captured via trail camera in Green Mountain National Forest, Vermont, United States. We discuss the biogeography of this behavior, how it may differ between tropical and temperate climates, and its potential impact on moose health.

Vermont↗

USGS2025

Lithium from magma to mine in an early Yellowstone hotspot caldera

Renewable energy technologies rely on the extraction of metals not historically in high demand, such as lithium (Li), for which ore deposit models are incompletely understood. One of the world’s largest Li deposits is hosted in lake sediments of the 16.4 Ma McDermitt caldera, which formed during the early stages of Yellowstone hotspot volcanism in the western United States. Eruptive and posteruptive mobility of Li are major challenges in elucidating deposit formation. Melt inclusions preserved in quartz crystals provide a means to assess pre-eruptive magmatic Li contents. Concentrations of Li determined by ion microprobe for melt inclusions in a McDermitt rhyolite lava are 400−1350 ppm, compared to 20−70 ppm Li in matrix rhyolite glasses. Synthesis with melt inclusion data for eight additional calderas demonstrates a recurrence of Li-rich rhyolitic magmas (200−2000 ppm Li) in the western part of the Yellowstone hotspot track. However, unlike the multicyclic caldera complexes with overlapping fault networks that may have compromised Li retention, the McDermitt caldera remained a closed hydrologic system throughout its evolution. Modeling indicates 100 km 3 of resurgent magma could yield 25−150 Mt Li in a magmatic fluid and supports accumulation of Li-rich magmatic fluid in a closed intracaldera lake, followed by evaporative concentration and sequestration of Li within clay minerals to generate the McDermitt deposit.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Wyoming↗

USGS1976

Heat-flow data from southeastern Oregon

With the exception of values from two holes drilled within 2 km of Mickey Hot Springs, 17 new heat-flow values in southeastern Oregon are within or somewhat below the range one would normally expect in non-anomalous parts of the North American Cordillera. This is not surprising for a region in which most igneous rocks on the surface are 5 m.y. old or more. There is a suggestion of a thermal anomaly associated with the very young (late Pleistocene or Holocene) Diamond Craters lava field, and the thermal regime on both sides of Steens Mountain seems to be controlled, to some degree, by lateral and vertical movement of water.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

A model uncertainty quantification protocol for evaluating the value of observation data

The history-matching approach to parameter estimation with models enables a powerful offshoot analysis of data worth—using the uncertainty of a model forecast as a metric for the worth of data. Adding observation data will either have no impact on forecast uncertainty or will reduce it. Removing existing data will either have no impact on forecast uncertainty or will increase it. The history-matching framework makes it possible to perform this quantitative analysis leveraging the connections among observations, model parameters, and model forecasts. We show this behavior on a specific groundwater flow model of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain and show where the analysis can be informative for considering the potential design of an observation network based on existing or potential observations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2026

Only very strong shaking can break a tree

A handful of credible accounts, both recent and historical, describe trees being broken during earthquakes. Apart from landslides and tsunamis, such accounts are uncommon, suggesting that trees break only when ground acceleration is extreme or when trees are especially vulnerable to breakage. Here, I consider the question: what ground acceleration is required to break a living tree? I present simplified first‐principles calculations, considering the properties of common trees, focusing on tall, thin trees that can be approximated as uniform vertical cantilevers. The results suggest that, possibly excepting tall trees with heavy canopies, standing trees can only be broken by shaking approaching or exceeding 1 g , as anticipated by the rarity of documented accounts of snapped trees. I briefly consider several well‐documented instances of tree damage during strong earthquakes, drawing inferences about local ground motions.

The Seismic Record↗

USGS2025

Do bighorn sheep use desert tortoise burrow spoil piles as mineral licks in southern California?

In a previous study, bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) were periodically photographed by trail cameras when they visited desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) burrows in the San Bernardino Mountains near Palm Springs, California, USA. The authors suggested that bighorn sheep may utilize the excavated spoil material from burrows as a mineral lick. To test that supposition, we collected soil samples from the spoil piles and undisturbed surface soil up to 1 m away at two desert tortoise study sites with bighorn sheep at the aforementioned site and another nearby site. We hypothesized that sodium concentrations would be greater in spoil than in nearby surface soil samples. Common major cations were quantified in soil samples using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry following microwave-assisted digestion to solubilize the fraction of elements that could become biologically or environmentally available. Mean sodium concentrations were greater in burrow spoil samples than in undisturbed soil samples at both sites, likely due to aqueous leaching of sodium from surface to subsurface soil horizons. Although we did not collect evidence of geophagy by bighorn sheep, the behavior is well known. However, trail camera photographs of bighorn sheep with their head next to the entrance of tortoise burrows suggests that they may periodically utilize sodium and other elements brought to the surface by desert tortoises that are otherwise unavailable to bighorn sheep on the surface.

California↗

USGS2026

Critical minerals memory match game

An educational information packet about the 2025 List of Critical Minerals, which includes a memory match game about select critical minerals and how they are used.

General Information Product↗