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At least 1,657 records · Page 92Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Extreme climatic variability during migration invokes physiological and dietary plasticity among spring migrating ducks

Environmental stochasticity encountered during migration can have negative consequences for individuals and population demographics through direct reductions in survival or cross-seasonal impacts. We took advantage of substantial interannual variation in spring migration conditions over a 4 year field study to examine physiological and dietary variation among two species of migrant ducks. We collected female Lesser Scaup ( Aythya affinis (Eyton, 1838)) and Blue-winged Teal ( Spatula discors (Linnaeus, 1766)) during spring migration and measured lipid and protein reserves, an index of recent lipid metabolism based on concentrations of lipid metabolites in plasma, and diets. We documented systematic interannual variation among these metrics in both species, contrasting primarily the warmest, earliest spring and the coldest, latest spring. Lesser Scaup had reduced lipid and protein reserves and consumed less energy-rich prey during the coldest and latest spring but showed no interannual variation in the index of lipid metabolism. Blue-winged Teal similarly had reduced protein reserves in the cold, late spring but maintained constant lipid reserves among years, likely facilitated by increased consumption of energy-rich seeds reflected in diets and lipid metabolism. Our results reveal impacts of environmental stochasticity on migrants and suggest that recruitment may be impacted by variable conditions encountered during migration during extreme weather events.

South Dakota↗
USGS1997

Effects of fish density and river fertilization on algal standing stocks, invertebrates communities, and fish production in an Arctic River

This study examined the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down controls of an arctic stream food web by simultaneous manipulation of the top predator and nutrient availability. We created a two-step trophic system (algae to insects) by removal of the top predator (Arctic grayling, Thymallus arcticus) in fertilized and control stream reaches. Fish abundance was also increased 10 times to examine the effect of high fish density on stream ecosystem dynamics and fish. We measured the response of epilithic algae, benthic and drifting insects, and fish to nutrient enrichment and to changes in fish density. Insect grazers had little effect on algae and fish had little effect on insects. In both the control and fertilized reaches, fish growth, energy storage, and reproductive response of females declined with increased fish density. Fish growth and energy storage were more closely correlated with per capita insect availability than with per capita algal standing stock

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2022

Formation and distribution of coal balls in the Herrin Coal (Pennsylvanian), Franklin County, Illinois Basin, USA

Large areas of concentrated coal balls (permineralized peat) up to 4 m thick obstructed longwall mining in the Herrin Coal at the Old Ben No. 24 mine. The largest coal‐ball area mapped contained >1500 m 3 ; several areas contained >400 m 3 of coal balls. In‐mine mapping established that there were two types of roof (freshwater and marine), and that the coal balls were spatially correlated with the marine roof units. Regional studies and local data revealed that the younger, freshwater Energy Shale (mud) originally covered all of the peat deposited at the mine, but the mud was locally removed during a period of erosion. The great majority of coal balls are found within the coal seam, where they were permineralized in situ by carbonates. Some coal balls are found exposed on the eroded coal surface and others are within the channel fill associated with the erosion, which predates any marine sedimentation. Thus, the mineralization of the coal balls was synchronous with the erosion of the Energy Shale mud. Data from C‐and O‐isotope, geochemical, and mineralogical analyses of coal balls and associated materials were used to refine a depositional model of coal‐ball formation. The concentrated coal‐ball areas were created by the triggered degassing of CO 2 from partially decomposed peat in the presence of cations from fresh waters; 13 C/ 12 C ratios in these coal balls average −23.9‰. 13 C/ 12 C ratios as low as −34‰ occurring in the most concentrated coal balls are consistent with CO 2 produced by anaerobic oxidation of methane. Top‐of‐seam coal balls were formed later and show slight to strong marine influence; their 13 C/ 12 C ratios average −10.8‰.

Illinois↗
USGS1997

Debris-flow mobilization from landslides

Field observations, laboratory experiments, and theoretical analyses indicate that landslides mobilize to form debris flows by three processes: ( a ) widespread Coulomb failure within a sloping soil, rock, or sediment mass, ( b ) partial or complete liquefaction of the mass by high pore-fluid pressures, and ( c ) conversion of landslide translational energy to internal vibrational energy (i.e. granular temperature). These processes can operate independently, but in many circumstances they appear to operate simultaneously and synergistically. Early work on debris-flow mobilization described a similar interplay of processes but relied on mechanical models in which debris behavior was assumed to be fixed and governed by a Bingham or Bagnold rheology. In contrast, this review emphasizes models in which debris behavior evolves in response to changing pore pressures and granular temperatures. One-dimensional infinite-slope models provide insight by quantifying how pore pressures and granular temperatures can influence the transition from Coulomb failure to liquefaction. Analyses of multidimensional experiments reveal complications ignored in one-dimensional models and demonstrate that debris-flow mobilization may occur by at least two distinct modes in the field.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗
USGS2006

Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

Observations of turbulence in a partially stratified estuary

The authors present a field study of estuarine turbulence in which profiles of Reynolds stresses were directly measured using an ADCP throughout a 25-h tidal day. The dataset that is discussed quantifies turbulent mixing for a water column in northern San Francisco Bay that experiences a sequence of states that includes a weak ebb and flood that are stratified, followed by a strong, and eventually unstratified, ebb and flood. These measurements show that energetic turbulence is confined to a bottom mixed layer by the overlying stratification. Examination of individual Reynolds stress profiles along with profiles of Richardson number and turbulent Froude number shows that the water column can be divided into regions based on the relative importance of buoyancy effects. Using the measured turbulence production rate P, the dissipation rate ϵ is estimated. The observed turbulence had values of ϵ / νN 2 > 20 all of the time and ϵ / νN 2 > 200 most of the time, suggesting that the observed motions were buoyancy affected turbulence rather than internal waves. However, at times, turbulent Froude numbers in much of the upper-water column were less than one, indicating important stratification effects. Taken as a whole, the data show that stratification affects the turbulent velocity variance q 2 most severely; that is, observed reductions in are largely associated with small values of q 2 rather than with a dramatic reduction in the efficiency with which turbulent motions produce momentum fluxes. Finally, the dataset is compared to predictions made using the popular Mellor–Yamada level 2.5 closure. These comparisons show that the model tends to underestimate the turbulent kinetic energy in regions of strong stratification where the turbulence is strongly inhomogeneous and to overestimate the turbulent kinetic energy in weakly stratified regions. The length scale does not appear to compensate for these errors, and, as a result, similar errors are seen in the eddy viscosity predictions. It is hypothesized that the underestimation of q 2 is due to an inaccurate parameterization of turbulence self-transport from the near-bed region to the overlying stratification.

Journal of Physical Oceanography↗
USGS2011

On the Hydrologic Adjustment of Climate-Model Projections: The Potential Pitfall of Potential Evapotranspiration

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median -11%) caused by the hydrologic model’s apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen–Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors’ findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climate-change impacts on water.

Earth Interactions↗
USGS2011

Statistical Comparisons of watershed scale response to climate change in selected basins across the United States

In an earlier global climate-change study, air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins, regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance, 7-day mean annual minimum, and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins, except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov?Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins, with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed, and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed.

Earth Interactions↗
USGS2016

Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning

The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the “regionally consistent” models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960–90 period to the 2071–99 period was 4.6°–9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2014

White-nose syndrome initiates a cascade of physiologic disturbances in the hibernating bat host

Background The physiological effects of white-nose syndrome (WNS) in hibernating bats and ultimate causes of mortality from infection with Pseudogymnoascus (formerly Geomyces ) destructans are not fully understood. Increased frequency of arousal from torpor described among hibernating bats with late-stage WNS is thought to accelerate depletion of fat reserves, but the physiological mechanisms that lead to these alterations in hibernation behavior have not been elucidated. We used the doubly labeled water (DLW) method and clinical chemistry to evaluate energy use, body composition changes, and blood chemistry perturbations in hibernating little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ) experimentally infected with P. destructans to better understand the physiological processes that underlie mortality from WNS. Results These data indicated that fat energy utilization, as demonstrated by changes in body composition, was two-fold higher for bats with WNS compared to negative controls. These differences were apparent in early stages of infection when torpor-arousal patterns were equivalent between infected and non-infected animals, suggesting that P. destructans has complex physiological impacts on its host prior to onset of clinical signs indicative of late-stage infections. Additionally, bats with mild to moderate skin lesions associated with early-stage WNS demonstrated a chronic respiratory acidosis characterized by significantly elevated dissolved carbon dioxide, acidemia, and elevated bicarbonate. Potassium concentrations were also significantly higher among infected bats, but sodium, chloride, and other hydration parameters were equivalent to controls. Conclusions Integrating these novel findings on the physiological changes that occur in early-stage WNS with those previously documented in late-stage infections, we propose a multi-stage disease progression model that mechanistically describes the pathologic and physiologic effects underlying mortality of WNS in hibernating bats. This model identifies testable hypotheses for better understanding this disease, knowledge that will be critical for defining effective disease mitigation strategies aimed at reducing morbidity and mortality that results from WNS.

BMC Physiology↗
USGS2004

Numerical study of electromagnetic waves generated by a prototype dielectric logging tool

To understand the electromagnetic waves generated by a prototype dielectric logging tool, a numerical study was conducted using both the finite-difference, time-domain method and a frequency-wavenumber method. When the propagation velocity in the borehole was greater than that in the formation (e.g., an air-filled borehole in the unsaturated zone), only a guided wave propagated along the borehole. As the frequency decreased, both the phase and the group velocities of the guided wave asymptotically approached the phase velocity of a plane wave in the formation. The guided wave radiated electromagnetic energy into the formation, causing its amplitude to decrease. When the propagation velocity in the borehole was less than that in the formation (e.g., a water-filled borehole in the saturated zone), both a refracted wave and a guided wave propagated along the borehole. The velocity of the refracted wave equaled the phase velocity of a plane wave in the formation, and the refracted wave preceded the guided wave. As the frequency decreased, both the phase and the group velocities of the guided wave asymptotically approached the phase velocity of a plane wave in the formation. The guided wave did not radiate electromagnetic energy into the formation. To analyze traces recorded by the prototype tool during laboratory tests, they were compared to traces calculated with the finite-difference method. The first parts of both the recorded and the calculated traces were similar, indicating that guided and refracted waves indeed propagated along the prototype tool.

Geophysics↗
USGS2016

Prospecting for marine gas hydrate resources

As gas hydrate energy assessment matures worldwide, emphasis has evolved away from confirmation of the mere presence of gas hydrate to the more complex issue of prospecting for those specific accumulations that are viable resource targets. Gas hydrate exploration now integrates the unique pressure and temperature preconditions for gas hydrate occurrence with those concepts and practices that are the basis for conventional oil and gas exploration. We have aimed to assimilate the lessons learned to date in global gas hydrate exploration to outline a generalized prospecting approach as follows: (1) use existing well and geophysical data to delineate the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), (2) identify and evaluate potential direct indications of hydrate occurrence through evaluation of interval of elevated acoustic velocity and/or seismic events of prospective amplitude and polarity, (3) mitigate geologic risk via regional seismic and stratigraphic facies analysis as well as seismic mapping of amplitude distribution along prospective horizons, and (4) mitigate further prospect risk through assessment of the evidence of gas presence and migration into the GHSZ. Although a wide range of occurrence types might ultimately become viable energy supply options, this approach, which has been tested in only a small number of locations worldwide, has directed prospect evaluation toward those sand-hosted, high-saturation occurrences that were presently considered to have the greatest future commercial potential.

Interpretation↗
USGS2020

Gas hydrate petroleum systems: What constitutes the “seal”?

The gas hydrate petroleum system (GHPS) approach, which has been used to characterize gas hydrates in nature, utilizes three distinct components: a methane source, a methane migration pathway, and a reservoir that not only contains gas hydrate, but also acts as a seal to prevent methane loss. Unlike GHPS, a traditional petroleum system (PS) approach further distinguishes between the reservoir, a unit with generally coarser sediment grains, and a separate overlying seal unit with generally finer sediment grains. Adopting this traditional PS distinction in the GHPS approach facilitates assessments of reservoir growth and production potential. The significance of the seal for the formation of a gas hydrate reservoir as well as for the efficiency in methane extraction from the reservoir as an energy resource is evident in the findings from recent offshore field expeditions, such as India’s second National Gas Hydrate Program expedition (NGHP-02). In regards to gas hydrate-bearing reservoir formation, the NGHP-02 gas chemistry data indicate a primarily microbial methane source. Fine-grained seal sediment in contact with coarser-grained reservoir sediment can facilitate that microbial methane production. Logging-while-drilling and sediment core data also indicate that the overlying fine-grained seal sediment is less permeable than the underlying, highly gas hydrate-saturated reservoir sediment. The overlying seal’s capacity to act as a low-permeability boundary is important not only for preventing methane migration out of the reservoir over time, but for also preventing water invasion into the reservoir during methane extraction from the reservoir. Ultimately, the presence of an overlying, fine-grained, low-permeability “Seal”? influences how gas hydrate initially forms in a coarse-grained reservoir and dictates how efficiently methane can be extracted as an energy resource from the gas hydrate reservoir via depressurization.

Bay of Bengal↗
USGS2015

Introduction to special section: China shale gas and shale oil plays

In the last 10 years, the success of shale gas and shale oil productions as a result of technological advances in horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing and nanoscale reservoir characterization have revolutionized the energy landscape in the United States. Resource assessment by the China Ministry of Land and Resources in 2010 and 2012 and by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in 2011 and 2013 indicates China’s shale gas resource is the largest in the world and shale oil resource in China is also potentially significant. Inspired by the success in the United States, China looks forward to replicating the U.S. experience to produce shale gas to power its economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By 2014, China had drilled 400 wells targeting marine, lacustrine, and coastal swamp transitional shales spanning in age from the Precambrian to Cenozoic in the last five years. So far, China is the leading country outside of North America in the viable production of shale gas, with very promising prospects for shale gas and shale oil development, from the Lower Silurian Longmaxi marine shale in Fuling in the southeastern Sichuan Basin. Geological investigations by government and academic institutions as well as exploration and production activities from industry indicate that the tectonic framework, depositional settings, and geomechanical properties of most of the Chinese shales are more complex than many of the producing marine shales in the United States. These differences limit the applicability of geologic analogues from North America for use in Chinese shale oil and gas resource assessments, exploration strategies, reservoir characterization, and determination of optimal hydraulic fracturing techniques. Understanding the unique features of the geology, shale oil and gas resource potential, and reservoir characteristics is crucial for sweet spot identification, hydraulic fracturing optimization, and reservoir performance prediction. Even though China shale gas and shale oil exploration is still in an early stage, limited data are already available. We are pleased to have selected eight high-quality papers from fifteen submitted manuscripts for this timely section on the topic of China shale gas and shale oil plays. These selected papers discuss various subject areas including regional geology, resource potentials, integrated and multidisciplinary characterization of China shale reservoirs (geology, geophysics, geochemistry, and petrophysics) China shale property measurement using new techniques, case studies for marine, lacustrine, and transitional shale deposits in China, and hydraulic fracturing. One paper summarizes the regional geology and different tectonic and depositional settings of the major prospective shale oil and gas plays in China. Four papers concentrate on the geology, geochemistry, reservoir characterization, lithologic heterogeneity, and sweet spot identification in the Silurian Longmaxi marine shale in the Sichuan Basin in southwest China, which is currently the primary focus of shale gas exploration in China. One paper discusses the Ordovician Salgan Shale in the Tarim Basin in northwest China, and two papers focus on the reservoir characterization and hydraulic fracturing of Triassic lacustrine shale in the Ordos Basin in northern China. Each paper discusses a specific area.

Interpretation↗
USGS2025

Not all who meander are lost: Migrating sea lamprey follow river thalwegs to facilitate safe and efficient passage upstream

Efficient navigation is crucial for the reproductive success of many migratory species, often driven by competing pressures to conserve energy and reduce predation risk. Little is known about how non-homing species achieve this balance. We show that sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), an ancient extant vertebrate, uses persistent patterns in hydro-geomorphology to quickly and efficiently navigate through complex ecosystems. Hydrodynamic flow models coupled with bathymetric mapping and fine-scale acoustic telemetry revealed movement paths that tracked thalweg scour channels, which are often the deepest and fastest-flowing sections of a river. These paths allow rapid and efficient upstream migration and suggest the existence of a bathymetric highway system. Near-substrate swimming along this path resulted in a median of 5.8% energy savings while also promoting improved safety from nocturnally active predators. We hypothesize sea lampreys use hydrostatic pressure-guided rheotaxis to achieve this navigation. It is likely this tactic relies on sensory information from the animal's primitive lateral line and perhaps the inner ear. Insights from this study can be used to redesign conservation practices to achieve improved control where the animal is invasive and improved fish passage within its native range.

Michigan↗
USGS2000

Schaben field, Kansas: Improving performance in a Mississippian shallow-shelf carbonate

Schaben field (Kansas), located along the northeastern shelf of the Hugoton embayment, produces from Mississippian carbonates in erosional highs immediately beneath a regional unconformity. Production comes from depths of around 4400 ft (1342 m) in partially dolomitized shelf deposits. A detailed reservoir characterization/simulation study, recently performed as part of a Department of Energy Reservoir Class Oil Field Demonstration Project, has led to important revision in explanations for observed patterns of production. Cores recovered from three new data wells identify three main facies: Spicule-rich wackestone-packstone, echinoderm wackestone/packstone/grainstone, and dolomitic mudstone-wackestone. Reservoir quality is highest in spicule-rich wackestone/packstones but is subject to a very high degree of vertical heterogeneity due to facies interbedding, silification, and variable natural fracturing. The oil reservoir is underlain by an active aquifer, which helps maintain reservoir pressure but supports significant water production. Reservoir simulation, using public-domain, PC-based software, suggests that infill drilling is an efficient approach to enhanced recovery. Recent drilling directed by simulation results has shown considerable success in improving field production rates. Results from the Schaben field demonstration project are likely to have wide application for independent oil and exploration companies in western Kansas.Schaben field (Kansas), located along the northeastern shelf of the Hugoton embayment, produces from Mississippian carbonates in erosional highs immediately beneath a regional unconformity. Production comes from depths of around 4400 ft (1342 m) in partially dolomitized shelf deposits. A detailed reservoir characterization/simulation study, recently performed as part of a Department of Energy Reservoir Class Oil Field Demonstration Project, has led to important revision in explanations for observed patterns of production. Cores recovered from three new data wells identify three main facies: spicule-rich wackestone-packstone, echinoderm wackestone/packstone/grainstone, and dolomitic mudstone-wackestone. Reservoir quality is highest in spicule-rich wackestone/packstones but is subject to a very high degree of vertical heterogeneity due to facies interbedding, silification, and variable natural fracturing. The oil reservoir is underlain by an active aquifer, which helps maintain reservoir pressure but supports significant water production. Reservoir simulation, using public-domain, PC-based software, suggests that infill drilling is an efficient approach to enhanced recovery. Recent drilling directed by simulation results has shown considerable success in improving field production rates. Results from the Schaben field demonstration project are likely to have wide application for independent oil and exploration companies in western Kansas.

Kansas↗
USGS2013

Evaluating the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent for reducing bat fatalities at wind turbines

Large numbers of bats are killed by wind turbines worldwide and minimizing fatalities is critically important to bat conservation and acceptance of wind energy development. We implemented a 2-year study testing the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent for reducing bat fatalities at a wind energy facility in Pennsylvania. We randomly selected control and treatment turbines that were searched daily in summer and fall 2009 and 2010. Estimates of fatality, corrected for field biases, were compared between treatment and control turbines. In 2009, we estimated 21–51% fewer bats were killed per treatment turbine than per control turbine. In 2010, we determined an approximate 9% inherent difference between treatment and control turbines and when factored into our analysis, variation increased and between 2% more and 64% fewer bats were killed per treatment turbine relative to control turbines. We estimated twice as many hoary bats were killed per control turbine than treatment turbine, and nearly twice as many silver-haired bats in 2009. In 2010, although we estimated nearly twice as many hoary bats and nearly 4 times as many silver-haired bats killed per control turbine than at treatment turbines during the treatment period, these only represented an approximate 20% increase in fatality relative to the pre-treatment period for these species when accounting for inherent differences between turbine sets. Our findings suggest broadband ultrasound broadcasts may reduce bat fatalities by discouraging bats from approaching sound sources. However, effectiveness of ultrasonic deterrents is limited by distance and area ultrasound can be broadcast, in part due to rapid attenuation in humid conditions. We caution that an operational deterrent device is not yet available and further modifications and experimentation are needed. Future efforts must also evaluate cost-effectiveness of deterrents in relation to curtailment strategies to allow a cost-benefit analysis for mitigating bat fatalities.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2015

A collision risk model to predict avian fatalities at wind facilities: an example using golden eagles, Aquila chrysaetos

Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year -1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year -1 ) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80 th quantile, 6.3). In this case, the increased precision in the fatality prediction lowered the level of authorized take, and thus lowered the required amount of compensatory mitigation.

PLoS ONE↗