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Summary of floods in the United States during 1961

This report describes the most outstanding floods in the United States during 1961. The most damaging floods during the year were those caused by snowmelt in March and April in the upper Mississippi River basin and those accompanying Hurricane Carla in September. Hurricane Carla traveled northward along the east edge of Texas and then northeastward through southeastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, and central Illinois. Heavy rains and floods occurred east of the hurricane's path in Texas and west of its path for the remainder of its journey. Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia had moderate to severe floods in February and March from a series of large-area rainstorms. Many maximum peak discharges occurred, and streams remained at high stages for periods longer than any known before. Property damage was high and four lives were lost. Extensive flooding took place in May from southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma through northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, northern Kentucky, and the southern parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Maximum discharges occurred at many sites throughout the area. Heavy flooding was experienced on Kootenai River at Bonners Ferry, Idaho, in May and June. These floods were noteworthy for their duration. The most tragic flood of the year was in July in Charleston, W. Va. A small area cloudburst flood caused 22 deaths and damage of more than \$1 million. Severe flooding occurred in December in the Tombigbee River, Pearl River, and Pascagoula River basins in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. Much damage resulted, and from two to three thousand persons were evacuated from large flooded areas. In addition to the floods mentioned above, 19 others of lesser magnitude are considered important enough to be included in this annual summary.

Water Supply Paper↗

Adaptive management framework and decision support tool for invasive annual bromes in seven Northern Great Plains National Park Service units

National Park Service (NPS) units in the northern Great Plains (NGP) were established to preserve and interpret the history of the United States, protect and showcase unusual geology and paleontology, and provide a home for vanishing large wildlife. A unifying feature among these national parks, monuments, and historic sites is northern mixed-grass prairie, which not only provides background scenery and habitat but is the foundation of many park missions. As recognition of the prairie’s importance to park fundamental resources and values has grown, so too has the realization that invasive plants threaten these values by reducing native species diversity, altering food webs, and marring the visitor experience. Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and Japanese brome ( Bromus japonicus )—collectively referred to as “annual bromes”—are of particular concern because of their documented increase through time, and their association with lower native plant diversity, in NGP parks. A variety of grazing, herbicide-application, and prescribed-fire experiments have shown promising short-term results for controlling annual bromes in research-scale plots in the NGP, but it is unclear whether these management actions will be as effective at the larger spatial and longer temporal scales relevant to park management. When uncertainties about the effectiveness of different management actions cannot be answered with traditional research approaches in time to prevent resource degradation, yet recurrent management decisions must be made, an adaptive management approach may be appropriate. Thus, in 2017, we began to develop the ABAM—Annual Brome Adaptive Management—framework. The aim of this framework is to reduce uncertainties about methods for controlling annual bromes in seven NGP parks through a formal process of learning from the application of on-going management. A uniform framework across seven parks provides greater opportunities for reducing these uncertainties compared to a single park acting alone or to multiple parks using different adaptive management frameworks. This technical report details the development and expected implementation of the ABAM framework. After briefly introducing the issue (Section 1) and describing the context in which the framework was developed (Section 2), the report describes how a structured decision-making process was used to frame the problem, determine concrete objectives, and decide the alternative actions for achieving those objectives that the framework would be designed around (Section 3). Then the report describes the process used to develop the ABAM decision support system (Section 4). At the core of this system is the ABAM decision support tool, a Bayesian decision network built on nearly two decades of vegetation monitoring data from NGP parks, as well as current literature and ABAMspecific experiments. This tool, referred to as the ABAM model by its intended users, is built to work with the existing vegetation monitoring, prescribed fire, and invasive plant management programs that support the seven ABAM parks. In Section 5, the report describes how output from the ABAM model is produced and used in annual vegetation management decision making. It describes the ABAM R package (Baldwin et al. 2021) and an example R script that leads a user through an annual workflow using the model and the package. This workflow updates the model with information from new monitoring events following management actions of prescribed fire, herbicide application, or a combination thereof. With the updated model, data describing the current condition of vegetation in park management units, and current data for environmental factors included in the model (soil texture, slope, weather, and grazing), the user then runs the model to predict future vegetation conditions—and managers’ happiness with the outcome—in response to each of 10 management actions for each management unit in each park. These predictions inform managers’ decisions regarding locations and types of management actions to apply in the upcoming year. The ABAM framework is in its infancy, and the report concludes (Section 6) with a discussion of its longer-term viability. Successful adaptive management requires commitment for the long term, likely decades. Currently, the predictions of the decision support tool are not expected to be highly accurate, but they ideally will improve over time as more management actions are applied and their outcomes are captured by monitoring. We designed the ABAM decision support tool to work with the existing management and monitoring resources in ABAM parks to maximize the sustainability of the model’s use, but the ABAM framework requires more than the model. Because this application of an adaptive management framework supported by a quantitative decision support tool to guide vegetation management is unique within the NPS (to our knowledge), institutional knowledge and mechanisms for long-term implementation of the ABAM framework do not exist within the agency. Additionally, the ABAM model and the data that inform it could be improved in a variety of ways. Thus, this report concludes with a discussion of ways to both sustain and improve upon the work completed so far.

Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

Report of Committee on Glaciers, 1935–36

The membership of the Committee remains the same as stated in the Transactions of the 15th Annual Meeting, except that Kenneth N. Phillips has taken the place of Carl P. Richards, as representative of the Mazamas, of Portland, Oregon. The Committee submits the following report on the variations of glaciers in the continental United States and Alaska for 1935 or, more precisely, for the 12‐month period from the autumn of 1934 to the autumn of 1935.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Flooding in the Northeastern United States, 2011

Flooding in the Northeastern United States during 2011 was widespread and record setting. This report summarizes peak streamflows that were recorded by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) during separate flooding events in February, March, April, May, July, August, and September. The flooding of late April, which combined snowmelt and heavy rain and the floods associated with the tropical storms of late August and September, were the most severe and widespread. Precipitation totals from March to May for Pennsylvania, New York, and Vermont were documented as being the highest totals in 117 years of record. In late August, the heavy rains associated with Hurricane Irene produced widespread flooding in many parts of the Northeastern United States, which resulted in damage estimates in excess of $7 billion and approximately 45 deaths. In September, Tropical Storm Lee produced 6–12 inches of rain in parts of the Northeastern United States adding to the growing total of record peak streamflows set in 2011. The annual exceedance probability (AEP) for 327 streamgages in the Northeastern United States were computed using annual peak streamflow data through 2011 and are included in this report. The 2011 peak streamflow for 129 of those streamgages was estimated to have an AEP of less than or equal to 1 percent. Almost 100 of these peak streamflows were a result of the flooding associated with Hurricane Irene in late August 2011. More extreme than the 1-percent AEP, is the 0.2-percent AEP. The USGS recorded peak streamflows at 31 streamgages that equaled or exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent AEP during 2011. Collectively, the USGS recorded peak streamflows having estimated AEPs of less than 1 percent in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont and new period-of-record peak streamflows were recorded at more than 180 streamgages resulting from the floods of 2011.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

Summary of floods in the United States during 1966

This report describes the outstanding floods in the United States during 1966. The four most destructive floods occurred during March-April in the Red River of the North basin in northwestern Minnesota, during April-May in northeastern Texas, in August, in east-central Nebraska, and in December, in the Southwestern United States. For the second consecutive year, there was severe flooding in the Red River of the North basin in Minnesota during ,the spring snowmelt period. Unseasonally warm temperature caused rapid melting of a heavy snow cover, with water equivalent ranging from 5 to 7 inches, which covered .the northern two-thirds of the basin. Peak discharges were maximum of record at three gaging sites having periods of record ranging from 20 to 30 years, ,and peak discharges exceeded 50-year floods at nine sites. Damage from the flood was estimated at $10 million. In the period April 22-29, from 20 to 26 inches of rain fell in parts of the Sabine River basin in northeastern Texas. and high rates of runoff occurred from the headwaters of the Sulphur River southward .to the Trinity River basin. Flood damage was estimated at $12 million, and at least 25 persons lost their lives. Severe floods occurred along the Loup River ,and its tributaries in east-central Nebraska on August 12-14. The .peak discharge at nearly all gaging stations in the flood area exceeded the previous maximum of record. The floods we re caused by heavy rains of from 13 to 17 inches in about 24 hours. The storm was the most widespread in the area since 1896 and may have exceeded the area of the 1896 storm. The floods were unusual because of the consistently high discharges throughout a large flood area. Flood damage was estimated at $11 million. In early December a storm moved eastward from the Pacific coast in southern California into Southwestern United States. Intense precipitation occurred around the mountain ranges of south-central California and in and extending from southeastern Nevada across the southwestern corner of Utah to the Grand Canyon and southward to the mountains of central Arizona. Discharges on many streams exceeded the previous maximums known, and the flood was particularly damaging because of the large area involved. In .addition to these four floods, 19 others of lesser magnitude are considered important enough to be included in this annual summary.

Water Supply Paper↗

Summary of floods in the United States during 1962

This report describes the most outstanding floods in the United Spates during 1962. The most damaging floods during the year occurred in February in southern Idaho and northern Nevada and Utah, and during the latter part of February and the early part of March in Kentucky and in the Cumberland River basin in Tennessee. The floods in Idaho and adjacent areas of Nevada and Utah resulted from a combination of prolonged low-intensity rainfall, moderate amounts of snow on low-altitude areas, a period of high temperatures, and a glaze of ice over deeply frozen ground. The floods affected some of the most valuable agricultural land in the region and some of the most heavily populated areas in Idaho. Damage in Idaho was estimated at more than \$7 million. The floods in Kentucky and Tennessee were caused by two storms; precipitation exceeded 7 inches at places during the second storm. Damage in Kentucky totaled about \$7 million. Recordbreaking snowmelt floods occurred in March and April in southeastern South Dakota and adjacent areas. Many peak discharges were much greater than those that can be expected to occur on an average of once in 25 years. Peak discharges on the Floyd River and the Big Sioux River were the greatest snowmelt floods since 1881. Damage in South Dakota was estimated at \$4 million. Heavy rains during May and intense rains in early June caused flooding in Minnesota on tributaries of the Red River of the North. Peak discharges exceeded previous maximums at some areas in the basins of the Buffalo, Clearwater, and Wild Rice Rivers. Damage from the floods of May and June in Minnesota was about \$5 million. The greatest flood since 1920 in Rapid City, S. Dak., caused at out $600,000 damage in July. The great runoff of 3,300 cubic feet per second, from a relatively small area downstream from Pactola Reservoir, resulted from rainfall having an intensity greater than that for a 100-year recurrence interval. Floods caused almost \$3 million damage in three river basins' in western Florida in September. The greatest damage was in Sarasota where from 3 to 7 feet of water flooded homes and stores. About 70,000 acres of farmland and woodland was inundated. Unusual floods of September in southern Arizona flooded areas up to 10 miles wide. Damage, which totaled about \$3 million, was almost entirely to farms, as the flood area is sparsely populated. In addition to the floods just mentioned, 15 others of lesser magnitude are considered outstanding enough to be included in this annual summary.

Water Supply Paper↗

Neosho madtom and other ictalurid populations in relation to hydrologic characteristics of an impounded Midwestern warmwater stream: Update

The Neosho madtom, Noturus placidus , is a small (less than 75 millimeters in total length) ictalurid that is native to the main stems of the Neosho and Cottonwood Rivers in Kansas and Oklahoma and the Spring River in Kansas and Missouri. The Neosho madtom was federally listed as threatened by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in May 1990. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has been monitoring Neosho madtoms since 1991, and questioned whether or not Neosho madtom densities were affected by other catfish species, reservoirs, and hydrologic characteristics. Using the first 8 years of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service monitoring data, Wildhaber and others (2000) analyzed whether or not Neosho madtom densities were related to these environmental characteristics. The goal of this report is to update these results with data from 1999 to 2008. The trends of Neosho madtom densities in respect to John Redmond Reservoir and other catfish species remains consistent with the previous report. In both the Neosho and Spring Rivers, Neosho madtoms had a significant positive association with all catfish species. Of those species tested, only in the population of Neosho madtoms were significantly different in density above verses below the John Redmond Reservoir after accounting for the yearly variation. The average density of Neosho madtoms at the streamgage immediately below the reservoir had the second lowest density compared to the other streamgages. The positive associations with Neosho madtoms that remained consistent from the previous report included the 1-, 3-, and 7-day minima discharges and the annual minimum discharge from the previous water year (water year prior to when the fish were sampled) and the 1-, 3-, 7-, and 30-day minima discharges from the current water year (same water year fish were sampled).

Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

Streamflow statistics of selected streams in the lower Red River of the North basin, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Manitoba

Statistical summaries of streamflow data through water year 1994 for selected active and discontinued U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations for the Red River of the North Basin downstream of Halstad, Minnesota, to and including Emerson, Manitoba, are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include (1) station description, (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) graph of the annual flow duration, (5) monthly and annual flow duration, (6) probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, (7) probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, (8) probability of occurrence of seasonal low discharges, (9) annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and (10) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Open-File Report↗

Uncertainty in annual streamflow and change in reservoir content data from selected surface-water gaging stations on the lower Colorado River

The lower Colorado River is an important water resource for metropolitan populations, agriculture, and industry in California, Arizona, and Nevada. The Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) manages the river, releasing water stored in Lakes Mead, Mohave, and Havasu, and in other smaller reservoirs as needed so that it can be used by diverters. To help guide river management, streamflow and reservoir content are monitored at strategically located gaging stations along the lower Colorado River, its tributaries, and its diversions. The data obtained from these gaging stations, however, contain uncertainty and are only estimates of the ‘‘true’’ streamflow and reservoir content. As part of a cooperative project with the BOR, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the standard error of the annual discharge for calendar years 1995–99 at 14 streamflow-gaging stations and the standard error of the change in reservoir content at 2 reservoir-content gaging stations (table 1 and fig.1; Anning, 2002). These standard error estimates provide a measure of the random uncertainty for the annual data.

Arizona↗

Suspended sediment yield of New Jersey coastal plain streams draining into the Delaware estuary

An investigation was begun in 1965 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Philadelphia District to meet the Corps’ need for information on sediment transport in the Delaware River basin in relation to the maintenance of navigable channels in the river 's estuarine areas. Sediment records were needed by the Corps to identify the principal sources and amounts of suspended sediment transported by New Jersey tributary streams into these estuarine areas. In order to meet the project's objective, a daily sediment sampling program at streamflow- gaging stations on Crosswicks Creek, Cooper River, Maurice River, and Raccoon Creek was established. Because of protracted drought, which resulted in unusually low sediment discharges, the period of data collection at these daily stations was extended. Upon reviewing these records, three partial-record stations were established on the Pennsauken, Big Timber, and Mantua Creeks in 1970 to complete the areal coverage. Records at two additional stations, Delaware River at Trenton and McDonalds Branch in Lebanon State Forest, collected as part of other cooperative projects were available also for use in this study. The purpose of this report is to summarize sediment data collected at selected stream-sampling sites in southern New Jersey. Computations of excepted average annual yields at each sampling site were made and utilized to estimate the annual yield at ungaged sites. Similar data currently are being compiled for streams draining Pennsylvania and Delaware. It is planned to report on the combined information at a later date in the Geological Survey's Water-Supply Paper series.

New Jersey↗

Potentiometric surfaces, summer 2013 and winter 2015, and select hydrographs for the Southern High Plains aquifer, Cannon Air Force Base, Curry County, New Mexico

Cannon Air Force Base (Cannon AFB) is located in the High Plains physiographic region of east-central New Mexico, about 5 miles west of Clovis, New Mexico. The area surrounding Cannon AFB is primarily used for agriculture, including irrigated cropland and dairies. The Southern High Plains aquifer is the principal source of water for Cannon AFB, for the nearby town of Clovis, and for local agriculture and dairies. The Southern High Plains aquifer in the vicinity of Cannon AFB consists of three subsurface geological formations: the Chinle Formation of Triassic age, the Ogallala Formation of Tertiary age, and the Blackwater Draw Formation of Quaternary age. The Ogallala Formation is the main water-yielding formation of the Southern High Plains aquifer. Groundwater-supplied, center-pivot irrigation dominates pumping from the Southern High Plains aquifer in the area surrounding Cannon AFB, where the irrigation season typically extends from early March through October. The U.S. Geological Survey has been monitoring groundwater levels in the vicinity of Cannon AFB since 1954 and has developed general potentiometric-surface maps that show groundwater flow from northwest to southeast in the study area. While previous potentiometric-surface maps show the general direction of groundwater flow, a denser well network is needed to show details of groundwater flow at a local scale. Groundwater levels were measured in 93 wells during summer 2013 and 100 wells during winter 2015. The summer and winter potentiometric-surface maps display the presence of what is interpreted to be a groundwater trough trending from the northwest to the southeast through the study area. This groundwater trough may be the hydraulic expression of a Tertiary-age paleochannel. Groundwater north of the trough flows in a southerly direction into the trough, and groundwater south of the trough flows in an easterly direction into the trough. During the 18-month period between summer 2013 and winter 2015, changes in groundwater levels ranged from a rise of 10.0 to a decline of 3.8 feet. The regions to the north and south of the groundwater trough contained the majority of the rises in groundwater levels, whereas the regions within the trough contained the majority of the declines in groundwater levels. In contrast, the long-term groundwater-level trend in wells with 20 to 60 years of record is a steady decline in average annual water levels, with declines ranging from 0.41 to 2.81 feet per year. Overall, the northwestern part of the study area exhibits the smallest average annual declines, while the southeastern part of the study area exhibits the largest average annual declines.

New Mexico↗

The Evolution of the Lower Missouri River: Preliminary Results of NMD Research at Lisbon Bottom

The purpose of this investigation is to determine the relationship between the geomorphology of Lisbon Bottom and the spatial and temporal distribution of its wetlands. The project is focused specifically on the Quaternary geology of the river valley and the relationship between the valley's alluvial architecture and the hydrogeology of its wetlands. The Quaternary geology of the river valley has been determined through a field reconnaissance and visual inspection of topographic maps and digital elevation data. Data describing the morphology of the main channel and the physical properties of Lisbon Bottom have been collected. On the basis of these data, a preliminary model of the alluvial architecture of Lisbon Bottom has been developed, but it lacks subsurface verification owing to equipment failures and unseasonable high water. To date, the publications and presentations describing the project include a U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report (OFR 01-176), two seminars hosted by the University of Missouri - Rolla, and an abstract that was submitted and accepted by the Geological Society of America for its annual fall meeting in November 2001.

Lisbon Bottom, Missouri River↗

Storage requirements for Arkansas streams

The supply of good-quality surface water in Arkansas is abundant. owing to seasonal and annual variability of streamflow, however, storage must be provided to insure dependable year-round supplies in most of the State. Storage requirements for draft rates that are as much as 60 percent of the mean annual flow at 49 continuous-record gaging stations can be obtained from tabular data in this report. Through regional analyses of streamflow data, the State was divided into three regions. Draft-storage diagrams for each region provide a means of estimating storage requirements for sites on streams where data are scant, provided the drainage area, the mean annual flow, and the low-flow index are known. These data are tabulated for 53 gaging stations used in the analyses and for 132 partial-record sites where only base-flow measurements have been made. Mean annual flow can be determined for any stream whose drainage lies within the State by using the runoff map in this report. Low-flow indices can be estimated by correlating base flows, determined from several discharge measurements, with concurrent flows at nearby continuous-record gaging stations, whose low-flow indices have been determined.

Water Supply Paper↗

Selected U.S. Bureau of Mines reports on Alaska indexed by quadrangle

Most U.S. Bureau of Mines reports on the geology and mineral resources of Alaska that were published or placed in open files through April 30, 1974, are listed by the quadrangles (scale 1:250,000) into which Alaska has been divided for topographic mapping (p. 2). References to reports that deal with Alaska as a whole and cannot be readily assigned to individual quadrangles or deal with many scattered parts of the state are listed under ALASKA - GENERAL, which appears before the alphabetically arranged quadrangle listings. References to the Minerals Yearbook, published annually, are not included as this periodical contains mainly statistical data. Also omitted are reports on mining, milling, and metallurgical practices; compilations of coal, oil, and gas analyses unless data on geological occurrences are also given; and reports on permissible explosives, health, and safety. This index is the second in a planned series of specialized lists, arranged by quadrangle, that will facilitate library research on the geology and mineral resources of Alaska. The first in the series is "Geological Survey open-file reports on Alaska indexed by quadrangle," by Edward H. Cobb, which was released as open-file report 74-7 on May 16, 1974.

Alaska↗

Quality of wet deposition in the Grand Calumet River Watershed, northwestern Indiana, April 29, 1997–April 28, 1998

The Grand Calumet River, in northwestern Indiana, drains a heavily industrialized area along the southern shore of Lake Michigan. Steel production and petroleum refining are two of the area’s predominant industries. High-temperature processes, such as fossil fuel combustion and steel production, release contaminants to the atmosphere that may result in wet deposition being a major contributor to major-ion and trace-metal loadings in northwestern Indiana and Lake Michigan. A wet-deposition collection site was established at the Gary (Indiana) Regional Airport to monitor the quantity and chemical quality of wet deposition. During a first phase of sampling, 48 wet-deposition samples were collected weekly between June 30, 1992, and August 31, 1993. During a second phase of sampling, 40 wet-deposition samples were collected between October 17, 1995, and November 12, 1996. Forty-two wet-deposition samples were collected during a third phase of sampling, which began April 29, 1997, and was completed April 28, 1998. Wet- deposition samples were analyzed for pH, specific conductance, and selected major ions and trace metals. This report describes the quantity and quality of wet-deposition samples collected during the third sampling phase and compares these findings to the results of the first and second sampling phases. All of the samples collected during the third phase of sampling were of sufficient volumes for at least some of the analyses to be performed. Constituent concentrations from the third sampling phase were not significantly different (at the 5-percent significance level) from those for the second sampling phase. Significant increases, however, were observed in the concentrations of potassium, iron, lead, and zinc when compared to the concentrations observed in the first sampling phase. Weekly loadings were estimated for each constituent measured during the third sampling phase. If constituent concentrations were reported less than the method reporting limit, a range for the weekly loading was computed. The estimated annual loadings of chloride, silica, bromide, copper, and zinc during the third sampling phase were greater than those estimated for the first two sampling phases. The only estimated annual loading in the third sampling phase that was less than the estimated annual loadings observed during the first two sampling phases was sulfate. The estimated annual loadings of calcium, magnesium, nitrate, potassium, barium, lead, iron, and manganese observed during the third sampling phase were greater than the loadings observed during the first sampling phase but less than those observed during the second sampling phase. No significant differences were observed between the quantity of wet deposition collected during the three sampling phases.

Indiana↗

NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a national scope.

Circular↗

Assessment of water-quality data from Long Lake National Wildlife Refuge, North Dakota--2008 through 2012

ong Lake National Wildlife Refuge, located in south-central North Dakota, is an important habitat for numerous migratory birds and waterfowl, including several threatened or endangered species. The refuge is distinguished by Long Lake, which is approximately 65 square kilometers and consists of four primary water management units. Water levels in the Long Lake units are maintained by low-level dikes and water-control structures, which after construction during the 1930s increased the water-storage capacity of Long Lake and reduced the frequency and volume of flushing flows downstream. The altered water regime, along with the negative precipitation:evaporation ratio of the region, may be contributing to the accumulation of water-borne chemical constituents such as salts, trace metals, and other constituents, which at certain threshold concentrations may impair aquatic plant, invertebrate, and bird communities of the refuge. The refuge’s comprehensive conservation planning process identified the need for water-quality monitoring to assess current (2013) conditions, establish comparative baselines, evaluate changes over time (trends), and support adaptive management of the wetland units. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and North Dakota Department of Health began a water-quality monitoring program at Long Lake National Wildlife Refuge to address these needs. Biweekly water-quality samples were collected for ions, trace metals, and nutrients; and in situ sensors and data loggers were installed for the continuous measurement of specific conductance and water depth. Long Lake was characterized primarily by sodium, bicarbonate, and sulfate ions. Overall results for total alkalinity and hardness were 580 and 329 milligrams per liter, respectively; thus, Long Lake is considered alkaline and classified as very hard. The mean pH and sodium adsorption ratio for Long Lake were 8.8 and 10, respectively. Total dissolved solids concentrations averaged approximately 1,750 milligrams per liter, and ranged from 117 to 39,700 milligrams per liter. Twelve of the 14 trace metals detected in the water samples had established North Dakota water-quality standards for aquatic life, and only aluminum and copper consistently exceeded these criteria. Aluminum is considered harmful to aquatic biota in acidic (pH less than 5.5) systems and most of the copper standard exceedances were collected from highly concentrated waters because of evaporation and seasonally low water levels. Concentrations for various forms of nitrogen and phosphorus generally were similar to reported regional values. Specific conductance of Long Lake varied seasonally and annually both within and among management units, with values ranging from less than 500 to nearly 40,000 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius. Long Lake was characterized by consistent seasonal patterns of increasing specific conductance from spring (March and April) to fall (September and October), with levels stabilizing through the end of the sampling season (November). These seasonal patterns in specific conductance were associated with decreasing water levels throughout the summer due primarily to evaporation and continuous water releases through the Unit 1 outlet structure, which resulted in the concentration of salts. Specific conductance of each unit, along with water levels, also varied among years. Overall, specific conductance levels were greatest during the drier year of 2008 when water levels were low. Specific conductance levels were lowest during the spring of 2009 following above-average volumes of fresh water from snowmelt runoff. Comparisons of specific conductance among sample sites that were spatially distributed within each management unit suggested that spatial variability within units was low except for areas associated with local inflows. Data collected during this study revealed consistent seasonal patterns and low within-unit spatial variability of specific conductance. Based on these data results, future sample collection efforts may be reduced, as well as the number of sample locations, to limit sampling costs. Water-quality samples collected monthly or seasonally during the growing season (spring, summer, and fall) from a single representative location within each water-management unit should provide sufficient data to assess seasonal changes in water-quality over time and provide information for Long Lake management decisions.

North Dakota↗

Changes in biological communities of the Fountain Creek Basin, Colorado, 2003–2016, in relation to antecedent streamflow, water quality, and habitat

The analysis described in this report is part of a longterm project monitoring the biological communities, habitat, and water quality of the Fountain Creek Basin. Biology, habitat, and water-quality data have been collected at 10 sites since 2003. These data include annual samples of aquatic invertebrate communities, fish communities, water quality, and quantitative riverine habitat. This report examines trends in biological communities from 2003 to 2016 and explores relationships between biological communities and abiotic variables (antecedent streamflow, physical habitat, and water quality). Six biological metrics (three invertebrate and three fish) and four individual fish species were used to examine trends in these data and how streamflow, habitat, and (or) water quality may explain these trends. The analysis of 79 trends shows that the majority of significant trends decreased over the trend period. Overall, 19 trends before adjustments for streamflow in the fish (12) and invertebrate (7) metrics were all decreasing except for the metric Invertebrate Species Richness at the most upstream site in Monument Creek. Seven of these trends were explained by streamflow and four trends were revealed that were originally masked by variability in antecedent streamflow. Only two sites (Jimmy Camp Creek at Fountain, CO and Fountain Creek near Pinon, CO) had no trends in the fish or invertebrate metrics. Ten of the streamflow-adjusted trends were explained by habitat, one was explained by water quality, and five were not explained by any of the variables that were tested. Overall, from 2003 to 2016, all the fish metric trends were decreasing with an average decline of 40 percent, and invertebrate metrics decreased on average by 9.5 percent. A potential peak streamflow threshold was identified above which there is severely limited production of age-0 flathead chub (Platygobio gracilis).

Colorado↗